The Full Belmonte, October 3, 2023
Kevin McCarthy
Speaker Kevin McCarthyHaiyun Jiang for The New York Times
“Representative Matt Gaetz called for a vote on removing Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, after McCarthy worked with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown.
The vote is expected within days.
McCarthy has little chance of surviving without help from Democrats. They are considering what they could ask in return.” [New York Times]
Dems' McCarthy demands
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) talks to reporters last night after filing his motion. Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
“House Democrats sound like they're willing to save Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his right-wing revolt — but he'll have to pay a price, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
‘I'm not a cheap date,’ House Rules Committee Ranking Member Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said, signaling his support would come at a cost.
Why it matters: If Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) can get just half a dozen Republicans to support him in his effort to take down McCarthy, it means the speaker would need some Democratic votes to survive.
What's happening: Gaetz last evening introduced his long-threatened ‘motion to vacate,’ meaning the House will vote this week on whether to remove McCarthy from the speakership.
It would be the first time in 100+ years that a lawmaker actually forced such a vote.
McCarthy said in a three-word online response: ‘Bring it on.’
Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the Capitol yesterday. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Democrats have discussed using the motion to vacate as a chance to fundamentally realign the House.
Specific concessions thrown out include greater Democratic representation on committees, forcing votes on Democratic bills and spiking votes on certain controversial Republican legislation.
Some centrist Democrats are already floating ideas for possible concessions McCarthy could offer:
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) cares most about strengthening the discharge petition — a tool to force votes on the minority party's bills if a majority of House members sign on.
Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) wants to see votes on bipartisan bills such as Ukraine aid and immigration reform. ‘If they want Democratic votes, there's going to be a price to pay,’ Nickel said. ‘If this whole process [allows] centrists to have a greater role, I think that's wonderful.’
Reality check: It may all come down to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who has kept his cards close to his chest.” [Axios]
Donald Trump’s fraud trial in New York is underway.
Trump in the courtroom at the New York Supreme Court. (Seth Wenig/Pool/AP)
“Yesterday: The former president appeared in court for his civil trial in a $250 million lawsuit alleging rampant fraud at his business properties in the state.
What’s next? The trial could last for nearly three months. Trump doesn’t face prison time in this case, but he could lose his New York properties — including Trump Tower.”
Read this story at Washington Post
New York Attorney General Letitia James (C) listens during Donald Trump's civil fraud case at a Manhattan courthouse, in New York City, on Oct. 2, 2023.
Pool photo by BRENDAN MCDERMID
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a break from court proceedings in New York, Oct. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)
Trump turns his fraud trial into a campaign stop as he seeks to capitalize on his legal woes
“Donald Trump’s court appearances are no longer distractions from his campaign to return to the White House. They are central to it. The dynamic was on full display Monday as the former president and GOP front-runner returned to New York for the opening day of a civil fraud trial accusing him of grossly inflating the value of his businesses. Read more.
Why this matters:
Trump was under no obligation to appear Monday and did not address the court. But he nonetheless seized the opportunity to create a media spectacle that ensured he was back in the spotlight, once again portraying himself as a victim of a politicized justice system — a posture that has helped him emerge as the undisputed leader of the 2024 GOP primary.
The appearance demonstrated how deftly Trump has used his legal woes to benefit his campaign. The former president’s appearance drew far more attention than a standard campaign rally and it gave him a fresh opportunity to rile up his base and fundraise.
While some rivals had once thought Trump’s legal woes might dissuade Republican voters, his standing in the GOP primary has only improved since before the indictments and helped him raise millions of dollars. This will be the reality of his campaign going forward as he alternates between visits to early voting states and courtrooms, including to testify later in the New York civil trial, a federal trial in Washington and a trial in Georgia.” [AP News]
Biden rushes to reassure allies on Ukraine
President Biden — flanked by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin — at a Cabinet meeting yesterday. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
“The Biden administration is scrambling to try to assure U.S. allies that war aid to Ukraine will continue despite the growing number of Republicans in Congress who oppose it, sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
Why it matters: Ukraine's government, U.S. allies in Europe and NATO officials are increasingly worried that if the aid doesn't continue, Ukraine's ability to resist Russian forces could be weakened dramatically.
Biden's outreach is aimed at easing concerns that GOP opposition to the aid could give Vladimir Putin a tailwind in his push to take over Ukraine as winter approaches, U.S. and European officials tell us.
Biden and Secretary of State Tony Blinken plan to call several of their counterparts in Europe today.
One European diplomat said Biden's team is telling allies that he's working on an agreement with Congress to allow continued military aid to Ukraine.
On Saturday, Congress voted to keep the government running with a package that omitted aid to Ukraine because of pressure from far-right House Republicans.
The shutdown votes signaled how Republicans' views have shifted negatively toward Ukraine aid in the past several months, driven partly by former President Trump.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the fact that Congress didn't approve more funding for Ukraine is evidence of U.S. ‘fatigue’ on the issue.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre replied: ‘We're going to continue help to Ukraine as long as it takes. ... If Putin thinks he can outlast us, he's wrong.’” [Axios]
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial begins today.
“The case: Bankman-Fried is accused of defrauding customers and investors out of billions of dollars. His cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, collapsed last year.
What to expect: The trial could last up to six weeks. Bankman-Fried, 31, could face decades in prison.
Digging deeper: Journalist Michael Lewis tells the inside story of Bankman-Fried’s final year in crypto in a new book. Read an excerpt here.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Congress
“Senator Robert Menendez’s corruption trial is scheduled for May, a month before the New Jersey state primary. He has not said whether he intends to run.” [New York Times]
“Representative Dean Phillips will step down from House Democratic leadership. He’s considering a primary challenge against Biden.” [New York Times]
Congressman carjacked in D.C.
Data: D.C. Metropolitan Police Department. Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals
“Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) was carjacked last night outside an apartment building that houses dozens of fellow House members, his office tells Axios' Andrew Solender.
Why it matters: The incident puts a spotlight on rising crime that has the District on track for the highest annual homicide count since the crack scourge of the 1990s.
D.C. Metropolitan Police spokesman Hugh Carew confirmed a ‘report of an armed carjacking’ in the Navy Yard neighborhood, near Capitol Hill. Cuellar' chief of staff Jacob Hochberg said his boss was unharmed:
"As Congressman Cuellar was parking his car this evening, 3 armed assailants approached the Congressman and stole his vehicle."
What we're hearing: A member of Congress who spoke on condition of anonymity said the carjacking was particularly shocking because of how many lawmakers live in the building, and the Capitol Police presence.
The big picture: Violent crime in Washington is up 38% compared to the same time last year, Cuneyt Dil reports for Axios D.C.
D.C.'s crime map (above) is a tale of two cities divided by Rock Creek, with violence increasing most sharply east of the park.” [Axios]
“A North Dakota state senator, his wife and two of their children died after the plane he was piloting crashed at an airport in Utah.” [New York Times]
“Hunter Biden is expected to plead not guilty when he’s arraigned on gun charges at a Delaware court today.” [New York Times]
Police chief who led newspaper raid resigns
Surveillance video shows members of the Marion (Kan.) Police Department confiscating computers and cellphones from the Marion County Record in August. Image: Marion County Record/AP
“The police chief who led an August raid on a small weekly newspaper in central Kansas resigned, following the release of bodycam video showing an officer searching the desk of a reporter investigating the chief's past.
Marion Police Chief Gideon Cody quit after a local prosecutor said there wasn't sufficient evidence to justify the search, AP reports.
Why it matters: The search of the newspaper put Marion — a town of 1,900 residents some 150 miles southwest of Kansas City — at the center of a fierce national debate over press freedoms.
What's next: Cody faces one federal lawsuit, and others are expected.” [Axios]
Amber Alert
“Charlotte Sena, the 9-year-old girl who was abducted while on a camping trip at a New York state park on Saturday has been found and is in good health. Her disappearance sparked an around-the-clock search involving hundreds of personnel from multiple agencies, including the FBI. Ultimately, a ransom note with fingerprints led law enforcement to a camper belonging to a 47-year-old male suspect. They found Charlotte hidden in a cabinet inside the man's camper. She was taken to a hospital where she was evaluated and reunited with her parents. Police have detained the suspect and canceled an Amber Alert that had been issued when she disappeared.” [CNN]
The Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to Pierre Agostini, Ferenc Krausz and Anne L’Huillier for their experiments with electrons.
“The laureates’ contributions, the awarding committee said, have enabled the investigation of processes so rapid that they were ‘previously impossible to follow.’”
Read more at Washington Post
Catholics weigh big changes
Photo: Daniel Cole/AP
“At a historic meeting that starts Wednesday, the Catholic Church will take on a series of hot-button issues that've been simmering since Pope Francis was inaugurated a decade ago.
Why it matters: Conservative clergymen are warning that the meeting could widen an already sizable rift with the more progressive pontiff.
The three-week gathering — a synod — will discuss Vatican positions on some of the thorniest topics:
Role and ordination of women in the church.
Inclusion of LGBTQ+ Catholics.
End of mandatory celibacy for priests.
Zoom in: This will be the first time women and other laypeople can vote at a synod, AP reports.
Participants will submit a final document after a second session of the synod in October 2024 to Francis for his consideration.
Between the lines: Conservative priests who oppose the pope have called the meeting a "Pandora's box" and pushed Francis to clarify his positions.
In a response released today, Francis suggested the church could bless gay unions in some form — so long as it didn't confuse the unions with sacramental marriage between a man and woman.
That would be a major reversal of current Vatican policy.
Reality check: 54 of the 365 voting members at the synod (15%) are women.” [Axios]
Life expectancy in the U.S. has been declining since 2014.
“Why? The American diet, health-care system and poverty have contributed to an epidemic of chronic illness, a Post examination found. More adults are dying in their prime.
One example: Five to 10% of all U.S. children have developed fatty liver disease. Before the early 2000s, it almost exclusively affected adults, particularly heavy drinkers.
Look closer: Compare your life expectancy with people in other countries here.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Mexico’s president says 10,000 migrants a day head to US border; he blames US sanctions on Cuba
“Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said Monday that about 10,000 migrants per day are heading to the U.S. border, and he blamed U.S. economic sanctions on countries like Cuba and Venezuela for the influx. Read more.
Why this matters:
López Obrador seemed to join Colombian President Gustavo Petro in blaming the situation on U.S. sanctions on countries like Venezuela and Cuba, whose citizens make up a large part of the migrant flow trying to reach the U.S. border. However, experts say economic mismanagement and political repression are largely to blame for the tide of migrants leaving those countries.
López Obrador has also slammed U.S. aid for Ukraine and said the United States should spend some of the money sent to Ukraine on economic development in Latin America.
The United States has sanctioned both Cuba and Venezuela over what it considers suppression of democracy. Petro’s government has faced criticism for failing to curb the industrial-scale smuggling of migrants in Colombia, while Mexico had done little to stop migrants from hopping freight trains toward the U.S. until the country’s largest railway took action after safety concerns last month.” [AP News]
Historic Visit
European Union chief Josep Borrell (left) and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba attend a press conference following the EU-Ukraine foreign ministers’ meeting in Kyiv on Oct. 2.Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
“European Union foreign ministers convened in Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian officials on Monday in the bloc’s first-ever meeting outside EU borders. The surprise visit was aimed at demonstrating the West’s ‘unwavering’ long-term support for Ukraine amid its slower-than-expected counteroffensive against Russia and growing opposition from some quarters to providing Kyiv with additional military assistance.
One such quarter is Slovakia. On Saturday, former Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Smer party won 22.9 percent of the vote in the country’s snap elections, securing 42 seats in the 150-person parliament. Fico—a pro-Kremlin, anti-American populist—campaigned on immediately ending military aid to Ukraine and blocking Kyiv’s NATO membership bid. ‘We are prepared to help with the reconstruction of the state, but you know our opinion on arming Ukraine,’ Fico said, reasserting his party’s commitment to only provide humanitarian assistance.
If Fico succeeds in forming a coalition government, then he will likely reverse many of his predecessors’ policies. Past liberal administrations were known for accepting high numbers of Ukrainian refugees and being among the first governments to send fighter jets to Ukraine. However, accusations on Monday by Slovakia’s Foreign Ministry that Moscow interfered with state elections could hamper Fico’s win.
Across the Atlantic, support for Ukraine is also looking a bit shaky. Top Republicans have advocated ending Ukraine funding for months, and on Saturday, the U.S. Congress had to remove military aid to Ukraine from its stopgap spending bill to get House Republicans to support it and thereby avoid a government shutdown. U.S. President Joe Biden said Republicans promised to provide the aid in a separate vote, but some conservative lawmakers are pushing back.
Still, Ukraine is downplaying the notion that Washington is wavering. ‘We don’t feel that the U.S. support has been shattered,’ Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, ‘because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than just Ukraine.’” [Foreign Policy]
The World This Week
“Tuesday, Oct. 3: French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna visits Armenia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The European Parliament holds a plenary discussion on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Wednesday, Oct. 4: OPEC+ holds a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting.
Wednesday, Oct. 4, to Thursday, Oct. 5: Mexico City hosts a high-level security dialogue between top U.S. and Mexican officials.
Thursday, Oct. 5: International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva delivers remarks.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev participate in five-sided talks.
Friday, Oct. 6: India’s Central Bank announces its interest rate.
Sunday, Oct. 8: Luxembourg holds parliamentary elections.
Argentine presidential candidates take part in a debate.
Germany’s Bavaria state holds local elections.” [Foreign Policy]
“Righting wrongs: A group of 67 women from Greenland are seeking compensation from Denmark over being involuntarily fitted with birth control devices in the 1960s.” [BBC]
“Opposition crackdown. Police in Madagascar on Monday deployed tear gas against opposition candidates in the country’s upcoming elections as well as hundreds of their supporters during an unauthorized rally in the capital.
Malagasies go to the polls on Nov. 9 to begin choosing their next president and state governors. However, opposition heads accused President Andry Rajoelina on Sept. 12 of orchestrating an institutional coup after he passed a series of legal rulings that would favor his candidacy, including overruling an allegation that his French nationality makes him ineligible to run for public office under Malagasy law.
Rajoelina denounced the opposition on Sunday, saying it had fabricated a political crisis ‘from scratch.’” [Foreign Policy]
“There’s bewilderment and anger among Armenians who’ve fled Nagorno-Karabakh over the international response to the sudden collapse of their 35-year struggle for independence in the wake of Azerbaijan’s lightning military victory.
‘People were just playing chess, with us as the pieces,’ one woman, Nune Avanisyan, said at an aid center in Armenia where she was seeking help.
The dissolution of the Armenians’ self-declared Artsakh Republic has brought the curtain down on a conflict that killed tens of thousands on both sides and created more than 1 million refugees, poisoning relations across the region.
The exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians from their historical homeland is taking place against the background of a high-stakes political gamble in which world powers are vying for influence with little apparent heed to the population’s fears for their security.
The conflict meant Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t even have an agreed state border. Turkey closed its frontier with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, while Russia leveraged the conflict to maintain its influence in the region after the Soviet Union’s collapse.
Now the territorial knot has been cut. The US and the European Union are pressing hard for Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a comprehensive peace agreement, seeing a chance to marginalize Moscow by stabilizing the region and opening transport routes that bypass Russia.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are due to meet in Spain on Thursday. Both sides say they want peace even as fears are high that fresh fighting may erupt over Azerbaijan’s demand for a corridor across southern Armenia to its exclave of Naxcivan.
Still, a deal that may transform the region after decades of bloodshed is of little comfort for Armenians who’ve fled Nagorno-Karabakh.
At Armenia’s Yerablur national military cemetery, Artur Safaryan stood by the grave of a friend, Davit Arzumanyan, who’d died fighting in a 2020 war over the territory.
‘Today, we are just lost,” he said. “We can’t understand what’s going on.’ — Anthony Halpin ” [Bloomberg]
A service at the Saint Sargis church, part of nationwide prayers for Nagorno-Karabakh, in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, on Sunday. Photographer: Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty Images
“An unusual collaboration between several Taiwanese technology companies and US-sanctioned Huawei is building infrastructure for an under-the-radar network of chip plants across southern China. The efforts risk triggering a backlash on an island that is preparing for elections in January and at a time when China threatens Taiwan regularly with military action for even contemplating independence.” ”[Bloomberg]
“Romanians, once among the EU’s poorest members, have watched their economy blossom and living standards soar as a result of their clinching membership in the bloc more than a decade and a half ago. That transformation may now provide a great model for Ukraine and other eastern European countries as EU leaders contemplate another round of expansion at meetings in Granada, Spain, this week, Andra Timu and Michael Winfrey report.” ”[Bloomberg]
“Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi confirmed he’ll seek a third term in December, a decision as widely expected as his eventual victory. While the election comes as the North African nation is mired in its worst economic crisis in decades, any challenger faces the daunting task of unseating a leader who’s been in office since 2014 and is backed by the powerful military and state institutions.” [Bloomberg]
“Indecision in UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government has some top members of his team wondering at this week’s Conservative Party conference how much longer he should lead them. His refusal to commit to building a major section of the planned HS2 rail network, little progress on cutting immigration and a non-committal stance on tax cuts have many Tories worried about losing the next general election due by January 2025.” [Bloomberg]
“Parliament will discuss one of Singapore’s largest-ever money-laundering cases as the government comes under pressure to tighten rules and crack down further on cross-border organized crime.” [Bloomberg]
“The United Nations Security Council yesterday approved a Kenyan-led international force for Haiti to rein in powerful gangs and clear the way for long-delayed elections.” [Bloomberg]
In Port-au-Prince, Haiti.Johnson Sabin/EPA, via Shutterstock
“Turkey’s PKK assault. In a large-scale military operation, Turkish warplanes destroyed 20 alleged Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) targets in northern Iraq on Sunday. These sites included caves, shelters, and supply depots. The assault served as retaliation for a suicide bombing that injured two police officers near an entrance to Turkey’s Interior Ministry that same day. The PKK reportedly claimed responsibility for the ministry attack.
Sunday’s suicide bombing was the first such attack to hit Ankara, Turkey’s capital, in years. And it came as Turkish operations against the PKK, which it deems a terrorist organization, have escalated. On Monday, Iraqi President Abdul-Latif Rashid condemned Turkish attacks on Iraqi soil and advocated a peaceful agreement that does not involve establishing Turkish bases in the region.” [Foreign Policy]
“Mourning in Murcia. At least 13 people were killed in a nightclub fire in Murcia, Spain, on Sunday—marking the country’s worst such blaze in 30 years. The victims included people from Spain as well as Colombia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. Murcia Mayor José Ballesta announced three days of mourning.
Local authorities are still investigating the fire’s cause. Of the three buildings that were burned—Fonda Milagros, Teatre, and the Golden—only the latter facility had the proper permits. Fonda Milagros and Teatre, which are operated by the same company, only had one working permit between the two of them.” [Foreign Policy]
“A competitive runner at the Delhi State Athletics Championship in India found himself all alone at the starting line for the final men’s 100-meter race last week after his seven opponents withdrew from the event at the last minute. Although they cited “muscle strains” and “cramps” as reasons for their absences, organizers suspect it had a lot more to do with the fact that government anti-doping officials had shown up to give the runners surprise mandatory tests. One junior steeplechase athlete apparently didn’t get the memo in time for her race, though—so when she crossed the finish line, she just kept going, hoping to outrun the anti-doping officials who were waiting to test her. They caught her … eventually.” [Foreign Policy]
“At Google’s antitrust trial, the C.E.O. of Microsoft testified that Google’s stranglehold over search was so tight that his company could not compete.” [New York Times]
What Banned Books Week tell us about culture today
“Libraries and schools are reporting a significant rise in attempts to ban or restrict books in the U.S. over the past three years. Banned Books Week, Oct. 1-7, draws attention to national and local efforts to remove or limit access to books in libraries, schools and bookstores. Banned books are not new, but a dramatic uptick in challenged books over the past few years, an escalation of censorship tactics, and the coordinated harassment of teachers and librarians has regularly put book banning efforts, and our current cultural moment, in focus. Read more
•Of the record 2,571 unique titles targeted for censorship in 2022, most were written by or about LGBTQ+ people, Black people, Indigenous people and people of color.
•Authors of most banned books in the U.S. are speaking up.
•Why you should read these 51 banned books now.” [USA Today]
Karen Bingham holds a Let Freedom Read sign during a Rutherford County Library Board meeting on Monday, Aug. 28, 2023, at City Hall where books were banned.
HELEN COMER, The Daily News Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK
“The jackpot in tonight’s Powerball drawing has soared to $1.04 billion, the fourth largest prize in the game’s history.” [NBC News]
Bedbugs are causing chaos in Paris ahead of the 2024 Olympics.
“Why? They seem to be everywhere. Videos showing the insects on the metro and buses have gone viral. One showed someone covered in bites apparently after visiting a movie theater.
What’s new? Paris’s deputy mayor has called for a plan to deal with the infestation before the French capital welcomes millions of visitors for next year’s Summer Olympics.”
Read this story at Washington Post
SPORTS
“N.F.L.: The Seahawks embarrassed the Giants at home last night in a 24-3 win.” [New York Times]
“M.L.B. playoffs: The baseball postseason starts today with a single question looming: Can anyone beat the Braves?” [New York Times]
“Recovery: Bronny James, the 18-year-old son of LeBron James who suffered cardiac arrest during practice two months ago, is doing “extremely well,” his father said.” [New York Times]
Chicago woman, 104, skydives from plane, aiming for record as the world’s oldest skydiver
“A 104-year-old Chicago woman is hoping to be certified as the oldest person to ever skydive after leaving her walker on the ground and making a tandem jump in northern Illinois.” Read More at AP News
Forever RBG
Photo: Stephanie Scarbrough/AP
“The Postal Service unveiled a Forever stamp commemorating the legacy of the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — depicted with her favorite white-lace collar — at the Smithsonian's National Portrait Gallery.
Forever stamps will always be worth the first-class rate (currently 66¢).” [Axios]
”Lives Lived: Echo Brown mined her life to create a one-woman show about Black female identity and two young adult novels. She died at 39.” [New York Times]