The Full Belmonte, October 2, 2023
Epic docket
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“It's the first Monday in October. The Supreme Court term that begins today will include huge cases on gun rights, the First Amendment and federal regulatory power, Axios court-watcher Sam Baker writes.
Why it matters: After overturning Roe, expanding gun rights and handing down a host of other sweeping decisions, the conservative court has another slate of potential blockbusters on the docket.
Second Amendment: The court will decide, in U.S. v. Rahimi, the constitutionality of a firearm-ownership ban for people who are subject to restraining orders because of domestic violence.
Politicians and social media: The court will hear two related cases involving local officials who blocked constituents on social media.
Two members of a San Diego-area school board blocked parents who posted messages on Facebook and Twitter accusing the board of financial impropriety and racism.
The court will hear the San Diego case alongside a similar suit involving the city manager in Port Huron, Mich., who blocked a constituent who objected to COVID restrictions.
Federal regulations: Tomorrow, the justices will hear a case that could gut the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
What's next: State laws banning gender-affirming care are on an accelerating path toward the high court.
Abortion also may be back on the docket relatively soon, via lawsuits over the drug mifepristone, which is used in almost half of abortions in the U.S.” [Axios]
Government funding deal averts shutdown, but kicks the can down the road
“Congress successfully averted a government shutdown on Saturday after lawmakers made no progress on keeping the government's doors open for weeks on end.
The legislation staves off a costly government shutdown while lawmakers try to negotiate a longer-term solution.
•Americans can be relieved for the moment without a potential shutdown looming over the country, which could have furloughed hundreds of thousands of federal employees, delayed food assistance programs and more.
•While the deal, called a continuing resolution, received overwhelming bipartisan support in both the House and Senate, itdidn’t leave everyone happy. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy now faces an immediate threat from conservative hardliners to oust him from the speakership.
•Meanwhile, Democrats suggested they forced McCarthy's hand. But House Democrats didn't get everything they wanted. They ultimately ended up supporting the bill to keep the government open, even if it meant punting Ukraine aid to a separate vote.” [USA Today]
US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, celebrates after meeting with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on September 30, 2023.
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS, AFP via Getty Images
Ukraine
President Biden has requested Congress to authorize another $24bn (£19bn) to Ukraine. Credit: Getty Images
“The US may have avoided a government shutdown, but the lack of additional funding for Ukraine in the spending bill has left some residents in the war-torn nation nervous. The stopgap bill includes natural disaster aid but no new funding for Kyiv. Speaking from the White House on Sunday, President Biden vowed the US "will not walk away" from Ukraine, and called on Republicans to support additional aid. This comes as partisan divisions are widening on the role of the US in the conflict. A CNN poll in August found that most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its fight, with the public roughly split on whether the US has already done enough.
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., talks to reporters at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 29, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
POLITICS
Rep. Matt Gaetz is threatening to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy. It won’t be easy
“On Sunday, the far-right Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz threatened to use a procedural tool — called a motion to vacate — to try and strip McCarthy of his office as soon as this week after he relied on Democrats to provide the necessary votes to fund the government. Read more.
Why this matters:
The rules of the House allow for any single lawmaker to make a ‘motion to vacate the chair,’ a rare and strong procedural tool that has only been used twice in the past century. In recent years, conservatives have wielded the motion as a weapon against their leaders, though no speaker has ever been removed from office through a motion to vacate.
Gaetz is among 20 or so members who voted against McCarthy round after round as he fought to become speaker. While others eventually relented and voted in favor of McCarthy or present, Gaetz fought until the very end.
If a motion to vacate effort against McCarthy were to pass the full House, an individual from a list written by the speaker would act as speaker pro tempore and their first order of business would be to hold an election for a new speaker. That event requires the House to vote as many times as it takes for a candidate to receive the majority vote. For McCarthy, that process took an unprecedented 15 rounds in January.” [AP News]
804,000 long-term borrowers are having their student loans forgiven before payments resume this fall
“Some 804,000 will have a total of $39 billion forgiven under a one-time adjustment granted by the Biden administration. It’s for people in income-driven repayment plans who have been paying back loans for 20 or 25 years but who never received credit for late or partial payments. Read more.
Why this matters:
To correct mistakes by loan servicers, the Department of Education is retroactively adjusting accounts, resulting in forgiveness. The department says 95% of those who qualify have now been informed of the cancellation.
The White House has said it will continue to contact borrowers who qualify for cancellation based on their income-driven payment counts through the end of the year, every other month, as new borrowers become eligible.” [AP News]
“The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded to Katalin Kariko and Drew Weissman, for their discoveries that led to the development of Covid vaccines.” [New York Times]
Emily’s List President Laphonza Butler to fill late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat
“California Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint Laphonza Butler to fill the vacant seat left by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who passed away Friday at age 90, the governor's spokesperson confirmed to USA TODAY. Butler is the first Black woman and mother to lead Emily’s List, an organization that helps Democratic women win elections. She was also an adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris and is a former union organizer. The terms of her appointment mean Butler could join the candidates vying for Feinstein's seat next year.” Read more at USA Today
Laphonza Butler, president of EMILY's List, listens during a rally held by the Latino Victory Fund, Oct. 20, 2022, in Coral Gables, Florida.
Lynne Sladky, AP
California's new senator
Laphonza Butler speaks in Washington in June. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP
“California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) named Laphonza Butler, 44, president of EMILY's List, to fill the seat held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
‘A trusted adviser to Vice President Harris and leader of the nation's largest organization dedicated to electing women,’ the announcement says, ‘Butler will make history as California's first openly LGBTQ United States Senator and the first Black lesbian to openly serve in Congress in American history.’
Why it matters: The swift appointment means Senate Democrats will be back to full strength as they head into battles over spending and judicial appointments this week, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
In appointing Butler — whose group raises money to help elect Democratic women who support abortion rights — Newsom is emphasizing the importance that abortion rights will have in Democrats' 2024 election strategy.
The appointment comes just days after Feinstein's death at age 90, which left Democrats with just a one-seat majority and vacancies on key panels including the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Context: Butler's appointment fulfills Newsom's pledge to appoint a Black woman to the seat.
Butler, who was an executive at Airbnb and an adviser to Uber, could run for a full six-year term next year.” [Axios]
Trump trial
“Former President Donald Trump will appear in court today in New York for his civil fraud trial. Proceedings in the case — brought in September 2022 by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Trump, his eldest sons, their companies and several executives — will begin at 10 a.m. ET. Last week, the judge overseeing the case ruled the former president is liable for fraud and that he overvalued his properties on financial statements for a decade. The New York attorney general is seeking $250 million in damages, a ban on the Trumps from serving as officers of a business in New York, and a ban on the company from engaging in business transactions for five years.” [CNN]
Dems flood Virginia with cash
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin stumps in Dinwiddie County on Sept. 21. Photo: Bill Atkinson/The (Petersburg) Progress-Index via Reuters
“The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is pumping another $1 million into Virginia's high-stakes legislative elections this fall, doubling its investment, Axios' Hans Nichols has learned.
Why it matters: ‘It is the first time a legislature is on the ballot post-Dobbs,’ DLCC president Heather Williams said, referring to the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe.
For Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), the Nov. 7 election is a chance to show that his brand of conservatism — including a plan for a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions — can appeal to suburban voters in a purple state.” [Axios]
The Catholic Church
Pope FrancisRiccardo De Luca/Associated Press
“Catholic bishops will discuss priestly celibacy and the blessing of gay couples at an assembly at the Vatican known as the synod.
Pope Francis has invited lay people, including women, to attend and vote during the meeting for the first time. Read about the gathering.
A prominent Texas bishop who is critical of Pope Francis said the meeting threatens the “basic truths” of Catholic doctrine.” [New York Times]
Sweden’s leader turns to the military for help as gang violence escalates
“Sweden’s prime minister has said that he’s summoned the head of the military to discuss how the armed forces can help police deal with an unprecedented crime wave that has shocked the country with almost daily shootings and bombings. Read more.
Why this matters:
Getting the military involved in crime-fighting would be a highly unusual step for Sweden, underscoring the severity of the gang violence that has claimed a dozen lives across the country this month. More than 60 people died in shootings last year in Sweden, the highest figure on record. This year is on track to be the same or worse.
Swedish media have linked the latest surge in violence to a feud between rival factions of a criminal gang known as the Foxtrot network. ‘Sweden has never before seen anything like this,’ Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said in a speech to the nation.
Kristersson said that he met with New York Mayor Eric Adams last week to learn from the city’s efforts to fight crime, including surveillance methods and weapon detection systems. The prime minister said that the government is overhauling Sweden’s criminal code to give police more powers, criminals longer sentences and witnesses better protection.” [AP News]
“If you’re Volodymyr Zelenskiy right now you’ll take little solace from Joe Biden’s earnest assurances that the US ‘will not walk away’ from Ukraine.
And if you’re Vladimir Putin in Russia you will draw the logical conclusion that Kyiv was just thrown under the bus when funding for Ukraine was left out of a spending bill to avert a government shutdown.
Congress is also facing a mutiny from far-right House members who opposed sending more assistance to Ukraine.
That’s $6 billion in aid which is no longer guaranteed. Washington is a Ukrainian lifeline in its defense against Russia’s invasion heading into another long winter. Biden probably saw this coming, so some funding was front-loaded, but the changing mood in the US ahead of 2024 elections is unmistakable.
Back in June, Ukraine had the momentum. The counteroffensive had begun and Russian mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin was on his march to Moscow in an affront to Putin, his boss. Two months later he was declared dead in an unexplained plane crash.
Suddenly, after Zelenskiy’s return to the US, where the reception was less warm than last Christmas, the bad news is piling on.
In Slovakia, Robert Fico is set to return to power. He would join Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in being a contrarian pro-Russian voice in the 27-nation European Union.
Elon Musk, whose Starlink satellite network has been vital to Ukraine’s defense effort, posted a photoshopped image of Zelensky on his social media platform X yesterday ridiculing Ukraine’s requests for help.
The caption read: ‘When it’s been 5 minutes and you haven’t asked for a billion dollars in aid.’” — Flavia Krause-Jackson [Bloomberg}
A Ukrainian soldier on the frontline on Sept. 22. Photographer: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
“Fico’s victory in Slovakia delivers a fresh blow to Western unity and adds to the tide of nationalist and populist forces in the EU that have tapped into voter frustration over the pandemic, a cost-of-living crisis, and fatigue over the war in Ukraine. Slovakia’s president today will ask him to form a government, kicking off a potentially lengthy coalition negotiation process.” [Bloomberg]
“Climate will be a key focus at a major energy conference in Abu Dhabi where the industry’s role in the energy transition will overshadow the usual discussions on oil investment, production and markets. This week’s Adipec summit is taking place just two months before the United Nations COP28 meeting that will also be held in the United Arab Emirates.” [Bloomberg]
“Pressure to take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights is growing, threatening to open a dramatic rift in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s cabinet ahead of a general election expected next year. Some Conservatives blame the ECHR for preventing the government from deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda.” [Bloomberg]
“Two of the best-known African leaders are on opposite sides of a bitter power play that can be traced back to the outbreak of war in Ethiopia, Simon Marks reports. A cache of documents shows how the government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed tried to discredit his compatriot, World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.” [Bloomberg]
“Turkish warplanes struck Kurdish militants in Iraq shortly after they attacked the main Interior Ministry building in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, yesterday, the first such bombing since 2016.” [Bloomberg]
“Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s approval rating saw its sharpest fall since he assumed power last year amid elevated inflation, according to a survey by pollster Pulse Asia Research.” [Bloomberg]
October 2, 2023
By German Lopez
Good morning. We’re covering a successful global AIDS program — as well as a Trump trial, an E.U. meeting and the W.N.B.A.
In Uganda.Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty Images
‘Shining example’
“For decades, the U.S. has bankrolled global efforts to fight the spread of AIDS, saving tens of millions of lives. Congress has extended the program on a bipartisan basis since President George W. Bush created it in 2003.
At least, until now. Congress is gridlocked on a bill that would reauthorize the program, known as PEPFAR. Lawmakers passed a spending deal on Saturday to avert a government shutdown for 45 days, but that legislation did not reauthorize the AIDS program.
Without reauthorization, parts of the program expired over the weekend. If Congress does not act soon, organizations that deliver lifesaving drug treatments and other forms of support to H.I.V. patients could have to curtail their work. And some specific measures could lose funding, including one that provides care for orphans and other vulnerable children.
‘PEPFAR has been a shining example of a bipartisan commitment to addressing a global health issue,’ my colleague Sheryl Gay Stolberg, who covers health policy, told me. ‘If it doesn’t get reauthorized, it will be an example of how Washington is so broken that it’s even abandoning its moral leadership in the world.’
Why is this happening? Abortion politics are largely to blame. Some of the health organizations that fight AIDS also provide abortion services, and Republicans do not want to subsidize those groups. Even if the money does not directly fund abortions, these critics worry that PEPFAR strengthens the groups that provide them. House Republicans passed a bill last week extending the program only for a year and with more anti-abortion restrictions.
Supporters, including some Republicans, want a five-year extension without any new anti-abortion language. Many worry that cutting off groups that also provide abortions would damage anti-AIDS efforts. In recent weeks, Bush — himself an opponent of abortion rights — lobbied for the program’s renewal.
Global success
There is no partisan dispute on one point: The AIDS relief program is a major public health success. It has saved 25 million lives, equivalent to the population of Australia. In some countries, it has helped reduce the rate of H.I.V. infections by half or more.
How? The program funds health care services in more than 50 countries. It has helped build clinics that distribute antiretroviral medications for H.I.V., which reduce the risk of developing AIDS and undercut the virus’s ability to spread. It has established testing centers to help catch the virus earlier. And it has encouraged other preventive measures, such as safer sex practices and circumcision.
The program is especially important in western and southern Africa. Many H.I.V. patients in these regions otherwise struggle to get treatment.
Nothing in the program directly funds abortions.
Critics’ argument is, in short, that money is fungible. Program partners may not use federal funds directly on abortions, but they may use the money to set aside other dollars that can then go to abortions. The critics want the program to stop supporting any group that provides abortion services.
But PEPFAR operates in many countries that lack basic health care infrastructure, so it cannot be all that picky in choosing partners. In some regions of the world, strict anti-abortion language could force the program to pull out because it would no longer be able to find a partner that meets its standards. More people would die from AIDS as a result.
What’s next
PEPFAR remains funded for now. But Congress has not passed a longer-term extension of the program, which requires a separate bill.
If Congress does not reauthorize the program, it could send a chilling message. For the first time in decades, the global fight against AIDS would no longer seem like a bipartisan priority. The program’s partners may start to wonder whether they can rely on the funding and if they should work with the U.S. on a now-politicized issue. ‘It would be a huge departure from the past,’ said Jennifer Kates of KFF, a health policy organization.
For an AIDS fight that has saved so many people over the decades, those problems could over time translate to millions of preventable deaths.” [New York Times]
Health care strike
“More than 75,000 health care workers in the US could strike on Wednesday, potentially affecting dozens of Kaiser Permanente facilities in California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Virginia and Washington, DC. The unionized workers are asking for across-the-board raises, additional job protections, better benefits and a plan from Kaiser to address a staffing shortage "crisis" that has left employees feeling overworked. While hospital management and doctors are not part of the work stoppage, experts say patients at the impacted facilities would still likely feel the effects of the strike. The workers who would walk out for three days include nurses, therapists, technicians, pharmacists and janitorial staff, among other roles.” [CNN]
Teacher shortage explained, in one chart
Data: Economic Policy Institute. Chart: Deena Zaidi/Axios Visuals
“Public school teachers have long made less than many other professionals. Last year, the gap hit its widest level since 1960, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new analysis of federal data.
Why it matters: The Economic Policy Institute report helps explain why the teacher shortage is so acute.” [Axios]
Harvard inaugurates Claudine Gay, the university's first Black president
“Harvard University inaugurated Claudine Gay as its 30th president — the first person of color and second woman to lead the Ivy League institution. In her inaugural address, Gay said ‘Our stories — and the stories of the many trailblazers between us — are linked by this institution’s long history of exclusion and the long journey of resistance and resilience to overcome it.’ Read more at USA Today
Harvard names Claudine Gay 30th president. Social scientist and dean of largest faculty will lead University starting July 1.
Stephanie Mitchell, Harvard University
SPORTS
“Sunday night football: The Chiefs defeated the Jets, 23-20, even though the New York side had its best performance of the season. (And yes, Taylor Swift was there.)
Around the N.F.L.: A week after a historic offensive performance, the Miami Dolphins fell back to earth with a loss to the Buffalo Bills. And the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders in overtime to remain undefeated. Here are takeaways from the weekend.
Gymnastics: Simone Biles became the first woman to land a Yurchenko double pike vault at an international competition. The sport is renaming the move after her.
W.N.B.A.: The New York Liberty advanced to the league finals after eliminating the Connecticut Sun in an 87-84 win.
Curse breaker: Tim Wakefield was a pitcher for the Red Sox who, in 2004, played a critical role in the team winning its first World Series championship in 86 years. He died at 57.” [New York Times]
Taylor is toast of NFL
Photo: Elsa/Getty Images
“For the second Sunday in a row, Taylor Swift was the NFL's most prominent spectator as she cheered her beau, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
Swift saw the Chiefs eke out a 23-20 victory over the Jets at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium, where she performed three sold-out concerts in May for more than 217,000 fans, Reuters reports.
Why it matters: Swift has sent the NFL's viewership and ticket sales soaring.
Several celebrity friends joined Swift, including actors Ryan Reynolds, Blake Lively and Hugh Jackman. Photo: Robert Deutsch/USA Today Sports via Reuters
NBC's cameras didn't show her quite as often as last week's broadcast.
But viewers got plenty of Taylor time. As the Chiefs scored the first TD, the network panned to Swift as she hugged companions.” [Axios]
”Lives Lived: Evelyn Fox Keller was a theoretical physicist, mathematical biologist and feminist theorist who explored the way gender pervades and distorts scientific inquiry. She died at 87.” [New York Times]