The Full Belmonte, 9/5/2023
Pickup trucks and debris lie strewn in a canal in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, after the passage of Hurricane Idalia last week.
Idalia aftermath
“In the wake of Hurricane Idalia, which slammed into Florida last week, questions are being raised about whether federal dollars should be allocated to rebuild repeatedly flooded infrastructure. Meteorologists say the Atlantic hurricane season hasn't peaked and the Gulf of Mexico has been historically warm – meaning more energy to fuel more deadly storms. To make matters worse, many insurance companies are also pulling out of some Gulf states, leaving homeowners and businesses with more risk and fewer options to finance their recovery in a way that will leave buildings stronger and better able to withstand future hurricanes. Experts say that rebuilding homes to be elevated and more reinforced is an option, but that would be a major challenge without a healthy insurance market.” [CNN]
A new wave of climate-related illness is threatening humanity.
How we know: The Post worked with data experts to project how often people in nearly 15,500 cities would face such intense heat that they could quickly become ill.
Key findings: By 2050, over 5 billion people will be exposed to at least one month of health-threatening heat each year. Nations like Pakistan and India face the highest risk.
The dangers: Heat stroke and damage to the heart and kidneys if people work outside for long periods. Rising temperatures also bring tropical diseases to new areas.
Read this story at Washington Post
Maui investigation
“At least 385 people remain unaccounted for following the deadly fires in Maui, down from a peak of about 1,200. Hawaii Gov. Josh Green urged people to file missing persons reports as island authorities face mounting scrutiny over whether more action could have been taken to warn residents about the flames in Lahaina, which killed 115 people. Meanwhile, the Hawaii Tourism Authority is hoping to quickly rebuild travel demand amid a drop in revenue. lihia Gionson, a spokesman for the Hawaii Tourism Authority, told CNN people should stay away from West Maui burn areas, but the rest of the island and other Hawaiian islands are open for business. He said people may not want to intrude, but when the economy is all about tourism, ‘the last thing you want is an economic downturn to follow the disaster.’” [CNN]
House GOP nears Biden impeachment inquiry as shutdown looms
“Congress is returning to Capitol Hill to try to avert a government shutdown, while House Republicans also consider whether to press forward on an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who has sought to tamp down talks of impeaching the president, has indicated he will pursue at least the first step in the impeachment process.
•But McCarthy has a lot going on: He needs to rally with the president and other congressional leaders to pass a funding measure before the government's fiscal year ends Sept. 30.
•Meanwhile, conservative lawmakers have been clamoring to begin impeachment proceedings against Biden since Republicans took control of the House in January.
•The White House denies House Republicans' allegations that Biden knew about his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings and engaged in influence peddling with his family as vice president, pointing out they have yet to produce substantial proof.
More from Washington: The average age in Congress is one of the oldest in the past century.” [USA Today]
Clear skies expected to aid Burning Man 'exodus'
“Organizers of the annual Burning Man festival advised attendees to stick around until Tuesday to ease traffic as rain-soaked roads dried up and relieved a muddy mess that prevented thousands of people from leaving. Many people delayed their departure until the burning of a towering Man effigy scheduled for Monday evening, the culmination of the nine-day event. By Monday afternoon, officials reported it took departing attendees five hours to travel approximately five miles back to the nearest paved road”. Read more at USA Today
In this image from video provided by Rebecca Barger, festival goers are helped off a truck from the Burning Man festival site in Black Rock, Nev., on Monday, Sept. 4, 2023.
Rebecca Barger
Impeachment trial of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to begin
“The Texas Senate is set to commence an impeachment trial of Attorney General Ken Paxton, a political reckoning of years of alleged corruption that could lead to his permanent ouster from office. Paxton has decried the impeachment as a ‘politically motivated sham’ and says he expects to be acquitted. The historic proceeding is a rare instance of a political party seeking to hold one of its own to account for alleged wrongdoing. Read coverage from the Austin American-Statesman, part of the USA TODAY Network.
•A Florida judge struck down a DeSantis-drawn congressional map as unconstitutional.” [USA Today]
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at a news conference in Dallas on June 22, 2017.
Tony Gutierrez, AP
Biden's blue-state crisis
Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photos: Kent Nishimura/L.A. Times, Anna Rose Layden, Alex Wroblewski, Lev Radin/VIEWpress, Bess Adler/Bloomberg via Getty Images
“Tensions between President Biden and local Democrats are rising as shelters overflow and thousands of immigrants arrive in big cities.
Why it matters: The administration is stuck between growing calls to help the Democratic-controlled cities, and what aides view as legal handcuffs, Axios' Steph Solis, Monica Eng, Stef Kight and Caitlin Owens report.
What's happening: In New York, Boston and Chicago, a humanitarian crisis for people hoping for new lives in the U.S. has become desperate.
In Chicago, 2,000+ migrants are sleeping on the floors of police stations and airports.
Business leaders and lawmakers are demanding the administrationdo more to accommodate migrants — and are frustrated by Biden's lack of response.
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) tells Axios: ‘I wrote to him in May, so it's been like four months. But I hope to find out.’
How we got here: Republican governors have responded to unprecedented crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border with massive efforts to bus migrants elsewhere.
That's created a snowball effect, leading more migrants to follow those bused to major cities.
The big picture: Criticism of the federal government is part of a wider blame game among Democrats, including city leaders who previously welcomed migrants.
New York Mayor Eric Adams and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul publicly feuded last week, with Adams demanding other parts of the state receive more migrants.
Between the lines: Federal officials view many of the demands as political posturing.
Almost all the requests by cities and states regarding work permits face legal or practical challenges, experts tell Axios.
The other side: Biden officials point to new parole programs encouraging migrants to cross the border at legal ports of entry, allowing for a faster work permit process.” [Axios]
Biden to air new ad during NFL kickoff
Screenshot from forthcoming Biden ad, "Got to Work."
“The Biden campaign will air a new TV ad in battleground states during the NFL season kickoff on Thursday, Axios' Sara Fischer scoops.
Why it matters: The spot is part of a broader $25 million, three-month campaign focused on President Biden's economic record — at a time when most voters tell pollsters they disapprove of his handling of the economy.
The ad, "Got to Work," highlights Biden's economic achievements amid inflation.
‘They said, 'millions would lose their jobs,' and the economy would collapse, but this president refused to let that happen,’ a narrator says over a montage of news reports.
The ad touts ‘fixing supply chains, fighting corporate greed, passing laws to lower the cost of medicine, and cutting utility bills.’
The ad will run during the NFL season opener (Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, on NBC and Peacock) in the battleground states of Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Iowa.
Between the lines: Part of the $25 million campaign will aim at Hispanic and African American voters, with ads on soccer matches and the Oprah Winfrey Network.
By the numbers: Biden's campaign has spent more than $4 million on ads.
The other side: The Trump-allied MAGA Inc. PAC has spent and reserved $22.8 million in ads. Sen. Tim Scott's PAC, Trust in Mission, has booked $37 million in ads.
What to watch: A source working with the Biden campaign tells us that compared to 2020, the 2024 advertising will lean much more heavily on digital and streaming, especially YouTube.
Unlike traditional TV ads, digital and streaming ads can be more narrowly targeted.” [Axios]
Auto strike looks likely
President Biden spoke yesterday at a Labor Day event at the Sheet Metal Workers' Local 19 in Philadelphia. Photo: Matt Rourke/AP
“All signs point to an autoworker strike when the UAW's contract ends Sept. 14, Axios Closer co-author Nathan Bomey tells me.
The big question is whether the UAW targets one of the Detroit automakers — or all three at once.
Why it matters: There's still time. But UAW President Shawn Fain's fiery rhetoric, and admittedly ambitious demands, have set the stage for what could be a prolonged conflict.
What's happening: A more combative UAW has demanded a 46% pay raise ... a 32-hour week with 40 hours of pay ... and a restoration of traditional pensions, AP notes.
President Biden told reporters in Philadelphia yesterday when asked whether he's worried about a possible auto strike:
‘No, I'm not worried about a strike until it happens. I don't think it's going to happen.’
What we're hearing: Top industry officials tell Axios they expect a strike.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy described a strike as "highly likely."
Steve Rattner — the famed financier, and "car czar" to President Obama — told Bloomberg TV: ‘You have a very, very activist new UAW leader ... who has said very, very inflammatory things.’ (Video)
The UAW didn't comment.” [Axios]
Around 70,000 child-care centers are expected to close.
Why? The last of the stimulus money Congress set aside for child care during the pandemic expires this month. The $24 billion investment has helped to keep the industry afloat.
The possible impact: Around 3.2 million children could lose care, according to one study. It could also come with a big economic cost as parents reduce hours or leave their jobs.
Read this story at Washington Post
Invasive pests are causing havoc across the planet.
“How? They’re destroying crops, spreading pathogens, depleting fish stocks and driving native plants and animals toward extinction, according to a major new report.
The cost: An estimated $423 billion a year. And that’s expected to grow as global trade and travel continue to supercharge the spread of plants and animals across continents.”
Read this story at Washington Post
“Jill Biden tested positive for Covid, but President Biden did not.” [New York Times]
Can a police dog's paws violate the Constitution during a traffic stop?
“The problem for Nero the police dog began when he put his paws on the door of a car that had been pulled over after the driver suddenly swerved across three lanes. The dog sniffed out a pill bottle and a plastic bag that contained meth residue – evidence that ultimately allowed police in Idaho to get a warrant and charge the driver, Kirby Dorff, with felony drug possession. But the paws Nero placed on the driver side door as he jumped up to get a better sniff have opened a constitutional question that has now reached the Supreme Court: Whether the dog’s mere touching of the car violated the Fourth Amendment's prohibition on ‘unreasonable searches.’” Read more at USA Today
“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may soon be hopping aboard his luxury armored train for a first trip beyond the peninsula in more than four years, to meet in Russia with President Vladimir Putin to discuss supplying arms for his war on Ukraine.
Kim will travel to Vladivostok and visit Putin during the annual Eastern Economic Forum, which will be held Sept. 10-13, a source said. For Putin and Kim, it may be not a minute too soon.
North Korea has some of the world’s largest untapped supplies of munitions that Russia needs as its burns through its stocks of artillery shells, though the US has said any supplies would not alter the course of the war.
Under heavy sanctions, Pyongyang requires oil, food and machinery to rebuild an economy that estimates show is now smaller than when Kim took power more than a decade ago. Kim also wouldn’t mind some technology that helps him deliver a more potent nuclear-strike threat and deploy an atomic-powered submarine and spy satellites.
The Soviet Union helped his grandfather Kim Il Sung come to power when North Korea was forged in the Cold War, and relations with Russia have remained close for decades. Cooperation deepened after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made a rare visit to the North Korean capital in July, with Kim giving him a tour of a weapons exhibition where nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and drones were on display.
Kim has been a vocal supporter of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, with North Korea’s propaganda machine saying relations with Russia are ‘demonstrating their invincibility and might in the struggle to smash the imperialists’ arbitrary practices.’
While Pyongyang and Moscow have denied US accusations of arms transfers, an image of Kim’s train rumbling on the tracks to Vladivostok would indicate he’s going to exchange far more than pleasantries with Putin.” — Jon Herskovitz [Bloomberg]
Kim and Putin near Vladivostok in 2019. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
“US President Joe Biden will skip the summit hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Jakarta starting today, prompting former top diplomats in the region to question the bloc’s diminishing influence. The group has refrained from choosing between its biggest security partner, the US, and its most important economic one, China, embracing collective neutrality.” [Bloomberg]
“Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face is everywhere in New Delhi: on buses and auto-rickshaws, billboards and market walls. While the deluge of advertising is part of a marketing blitz for the G-20 summit, it also serves as the unofficial start to the campaign for next year’s election, when Modi’s expected to extend his decade in power.” [Bloomberg]
“Students in Ukraine’s second-largest city headed back to school yesterday by venturing underground into subway stations to take classes away from the risk of Russian airstrikes. Of more than 230 schools across Kharkiv, 120 have been at least partially destroyed since the start of the war.” [Bloomberg]
First-grade students attend a lesson yesterday in a classroom in a subway station in Kharkiv. Photographer: Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
“Niger’s ruling junta said it expects a rapid withdrawal of French troops, after the West African country ended a military cooperation agreement with its former colonial ruler.” [Bloomberg]
“Africa may need an almost 10-fold increase in climate-adaptation funding to $100 billion a year if it’s to buttress its infrastructure, improve weather early warning systems and shield its agriculture from climate change, the Global Center on Adaptation said.” [Bloomberg]
“Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and his cabinet were sworn into office today, with the government set to unveil measures to tackle Thailand’s high cost of living and near-record household debt.” [Bloomberg]
China
A Country Garden construction project in Nantong, China.Qilai Shen for The New York Times
“China’s biggest property developer, Country Garden, avoided default with a last-minute interest payment. But it has billions more to repay within the next year.” [New York Times]
“The company’s troubles are part of a real estate crisis threatening China’s economy.” [New York Times]
“Chinese people, sometimes posing as tourists, breached U.S. military sites up to 100 times in recent years in acts of potential espionage, The Wall Street Journal reports.” [New York Times]
“‘Hostage diplomacy’: Iran is using an imprisoned E.U. official as a bargaining chip against the West.” [New York Times]
“Pope Francis visited Mongolia. Few Chinese Catholics crossed the border to see him, seemingly because they were afraid their government would punish them.” [New York Times]
“Trailing in the polls with an election on the horizon, Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, is turning to divisive issues like refugees and crime.” [New York Times]
War in Ukraine
Putin dashes global hopes for reviving the Ukraine grain deal
“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, hoping to persuade Putin to rejoin a deal allowing Ukraine to safely export grain. Moscow withdrew from the agreement in July. Read more.
Why this matters:
Putin has said the West must first meet its demands on facilitating Russian agricultural exports in order to revive the deal. Ukraine and its Western allies have dismissed the Kremlin’s demands as a ploy to advance its own interests.
The Kremlin refused to renew the grain agreement when it expired in July, claiming that a parallel deal promising to remove obstacles to Russian exports of food and fertilizer had not been honored.
Erdogan said Turkey and the United Nations had prepared a new package of proposals. ‘We believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time,’ Erdogan said following Monday’s talks in the Russian resort of Sochi.” [AP News]
“Volodymyr Zelensky, who removed Ukraine’s defense minister after accusations of financial mismanagement, is struggling to eliminate corruption in his government.” [New York Times]
“People in a liberated Ukrainian village still lack electricity and water — and mines are everywhere. See images of the devastation.” [New York Times]
An empty classroom at Waco High School.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York Times
Empty seats
“If you’re a child — or a former child — you know how hard it can be to summon the energy to leave the house each day for school. It’s early in the morning, and you are tired. Maybe you have a test or a social situation that’s making you anxious. Staying in bed often seems easier.
For as long as schools have existed, so have these morning struggles. Nonetheless, children overcame them almost every day, sometimes with a strong nudge from parents. Going to school was the normal thing to do.
Then, suddenly, it wasn’t.
The long school closures during the Covid pandemic were the biggest disruption in the history of modern American education. And those closures changed the way many students and parents think about school. Attendance, in short, has come to feel more optional than it once did, and absenteeism has soared, remaining high even as Covid has stopped dominating everyday life.
On an average day last year — the 2022-23 school year — close to 10 percent of K-12 students were not there, preliminary state data suggests. About one quarter of U.S. students qualified as chronically absent, meaning that they missed at least 10 percent of school days (or about three and a half weeks). That’s a vastly higher share than before Covid.
Thomas Dee
‘I’m just stunned by the magnitude,’ said Thomas Dee, a Stanford economist who has conducted the most comprehensive study on the issue.
This surge of absenteeism is one more problem confronting schools as they reopen for a new academic year. Students still have not made up the ground they lost during the pandemic, and it’s much harder for them to do so if they are missing from the classroom.
Losing the habit
In Dee’s study, he looked for explanations for the trend, and the obvious suspects didn’t explain it. Places with a greater Covid spread did not have higher lingering levels of absenteeism, for instance. The biggest reason for the rise seems to be simply that students have fallen out of the habit of going to school every day.
Consistent with this theory is the fact that absenteeism has risen more in states where schools remained closed for longer during the pandemic, like California and New Mexico (and in Washington, D.C.). The chart below shows the correlation between Dee’s state data on chronic absenteeism and data from Thomas Kane, a Harvard economist, on the share of students in each state who in 2020-21 were enrolled in districts where most students were remote:
Thomas Dee (absenteeism); Thomas Kane (virtual schooling)
‘For almost two years, we told families that school can look different and that schoolwork could be accomplished in times outside of the traditional 8-to-3 day,’ Elmer Roldan, who runs a dropout prevention group, told The Los Angeles Times. ‘Families got used to that.’
Lisa Damour, a psychologist and the author of “The Emotional Lives of Teenagers,” points out that parents think they are doing the right thing when they allow an anxious child to skip a day of school. She has deep empathy for these parents, she said. Doing so often makes the child feel better in the moment. But there are costs.
‘The most fundamental thing for adults to understand is that avoidance feeds anxiety,’ Damour told me. ‘When any of us are fearful, our instinct is to avoid. But the problem with giving in to that anxiety is that avoidance is highly reinforcing.’ The more often students skip school, the harder it becomes to get back in the habit of going.
Aggravating inequality
I know that some readers will wonder whether families are making a rational choice by keeping their children home, given all the problems with schools today: the unhealthily early start times for many high schools; the political fights over curriculum; the bullying and the vaping; the inequalities that afflict so many areas of American life.
And the rise in chronic absenteeism is indeed a sign that schools need help. One promising step would be to make teaching a more appealing job, Damour notes, in order to attract more great teachers.
Still, it’s worth remembering that the rise of absenteeism isn’t solving these larger problems. It is adding to those problems.
Classrooms are more chaotic places when many students are there one day and missing the next. Educational inequality increases too, because absenteeism has risen more among disadvantaged students, including students with disabilities and those from lower-income households. ‘Studies show that even after adjusting for poverty levels and race, children who skip more school get significantly worse grades,’ The Economist explained recently.
As Hedy Chang, who runs Attendance Works, a nonprofit group focused on the problem, told The Associated Press, ‘The long-term consequences of disengaging from school are devastating.’
Many schools are now trying to reduce absenteeism by reaching out to families. Some school officials are visiting homes in person, while others are sending texts to parents. (This Times story goes into more detail.)
It will be a hard problem to solve. Dee’s study focused on 2021-22 — which was two years ago, and the first year after the extended Covid closures — but he notes that absenteeism appears to have fallen only slightly last year. In Connecticut, which has some of the best data (and lower absentee rates than most states), 7.8 percent of students missed school on an average day two years ago, a far higher level than before the pandemic. Last year, the rate dipped only to 7.6 percent.” [New York Times]
More on education
“Americans are losing faith in the value of college: 45 percent of Gen Z say that a high school diploma is all they need for financial security.” [New York Times]
“After the Supreme Court’s affirmative action decision, students must decide whether to mention race in their college applications.” [New York Times]
Putting the 'US' in the US Open quarterfinals
“There are three American men in the U.S. Open quarterfinals for the first time since 2005. Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton are the trio this time and all will be in action Tuesday. Fritz is a 25-year-old from California, Tiafoe is a 25-year-old from Maryland and Shelton is a 20-year-old who won the 2022 NCAA title for the University of Florida. Fritz goes up against 23-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic for a spot in the semifinals, while Tiafoe and Shelton play each other. In the women's tournament, American Coco Gauff is also headed to the quarterfinals Tuesday. Read more
•19-year old Gauff is showing some qualities that suggest she has a real chance to win her first Grand Slam title.
•US Open tennis balls are serving up controversy, and perhaps, players' injuries.” [USA Today]
Frances Tiafoe celebrates as he plays Rinky Hijikata, of Australia, during the fourth round of the U.S. Open tennis championships, Sunday, Sept. 3, 2023, in New York.
Jason DeCrow, AP
SPORTS NEWS
“Julio Urías: The Dodgers pitcher was arrested on a felony domestic violence charge.” [New York Times]
“College football: Duke toppled No. 9 Clemson last night, the first Blue Devils win over a top-10 opponent in 34 years.” [New York Times]
“An American upset: Madison Keys beat the No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula at the U.S. Open yesterday.” [New York Times]
“Playing today: Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe will face each other in an all-American quarterfinal tonight.” [New York Times]
An icebreaker. Pete Harmsen/Australian Antarctic Division
“A rescue team broke through Antarctic ice and flew helicopters on a dangerous mission to reach a sick worker at a research station.” [New York Times]
”Lives Lived: Marilyn Lovell became a celebrity as the wife of Jim Lovell, who captained the disaster-struck Apollo 13 moon mission. She died at 93.” [New York Times]
“Steve Harwell, the former singer of Smash Mouth, known for the ’90s hits “All Star” and “Walkin’ on the Sun,” died at 56.” [New York Times]