The Full Belmonte, 9/27/2023
Biden walks the line
President Biden addresses striking UAW members at a picket line in Michigan today. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
“With a historic picket line visit in Michigan today, President Biden tapped into his promise to be ‘the most pro-union president’ in American history, Axios' April Rubin writes.
Why it matters: Biden's visit marks the first time a sitting president has joined a picket line and tests his strategy to attract working-class voters.
Biden, speaking through a bullhorn from a small wooden platform, addressed striking autoworkers for about a minute:
‘You guys, the UAW, you saved the automobile industry back in 2008 and before,’ Biden said. ‘Made a lot of sacrifices, gave up a lot.’
When asked if workers deserved a 40% raise, he responded, ‘Yes.’
Between the lines: The White House chose a historic venue for Biden's appearance: near GM's parts center on the Willow Run site near Detroit, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.
The property, a shell of its former self, previously housed a 5 million-square-foot plant that built transmissions before it was shuttered in 2010.
The old Willow Run factory was widely considered the heartbeat of the Arsenal of Democracy, the Allies' manufacturing powerhouse during World War II.” [Axios]
Judge rules Donald Trump defrauded banks
“A judge ruled Tuesday that Donald Trump committed fraud for years while building the real estate empire that catapulted him to fame and the White House. New York Supreme Court Judge Arthur F. Engoron, ruling in a civil lawsuit brought by New York’s attorney general, found that the former president and his company deceived banks, insurers and others by massively overvaluing his assets and exaggerating his net worth on paperwork used in making deals and securing financing.” Read more at USA Today
N.J. first lady warms to Senate run
New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy speaks as Gov. Phil Murphy is sworn in for his second term last year. Photo: Tayfun Coskun via Getty Images
“New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy is ‘seriously considering a run’ for the seat held by embattled Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), a source close to her tells me.
Why it matters: Murphy is a formidable fundraiser and political force who would help Democrats hold the seat in 2024, when the national party will be scrambling to hold its Senate majority.
Murphy and her husband, Gov. Phil Murphy (D), are receiving a wave of entreaties from throughout the Garden State and from Washington, top operatives say.
She's warming to the idea and is already setting up coffees to explore a run, sources say.
The source close to Murphy tells me she won't decide until after New Jersey's legislative elections in November.
The intrigue: The governor would appoint a successor if Menendez were to yield to rising demands for his resignation following his indictment last week.
Sen. Cory Booker (D), the other U.S. senator from New Jersey, joined the list today.” [Axios]
Republican presidential candidates stand at their podiums during a Republican presidential primary debate in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash, File)
POLITICS
Republicans face growing urgency to stop Trump as they enter the second presidential debate
“Republicans are meeting for their second presidential debate Wednesday as his top rivals seek to blunt the momentum of Donald Trump, who is so confident of cruising through the party’s primary that he again won’t share a stage with them. Read more.
Why this matters:
The debate comes at a critical moment in the GOP campaign, with less than four months before the Iowa caucuses formally launch the presidential nomination process. For now, Trump is dominating the field, even as he faces four criminal indictments, and his rivals are running out of time to dent his lead.
Hoping for a big night is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will be at center stage despite struggles to emerge as the field’s top Trump alternative. His campaign announced that he saw a jump in fundraising after the first debate, but a strong performance on Wednesday will be necessary to replicate that.” [AP News]
In a win for Black voters in redistricting case, Alabama to get new congressional lines
“Alabama is headed to the first significant revamp of its congressional map in three decades after the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the state’s bid to keep using a plan with a single majority-Black district. Read More.
Why this matters:
Justices denied Alabama’s emergency request to keep Republican-drawn congressional lines in place and stop a three-judge panel from drawing new lines as the state appeals. The panel had ruled the state plan — with one majority-Black district out of seven in a state that is 27% Black — likely violated the U.S. Voting Rights Act.
The decision on Tuesday sets the stage for a new map with greater representation for Black voters to be put in place for the 2024 elections and comes as redistricting cases are moving through the pipeline in Louisiana, Georgia, and Florida, making similar arguments that the states illegally weaken the political influence of Black voters.” [AP News]
Youngkin nightmare: GOP-led shutdown
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) at an Economic Club of Washington event yesterday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
“A government shutdown could complicate a last-ditch presidential race by Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin — a persistent dream of big Republican donors desperate for a Trump alternative, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.
‘If I were Glenn Youngkin, I'd be on the phone saying, 'Make a deal,' because it's really clear that this is a Republican shutdown,’ said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.). ‘It'll be terrible, and terrible for them.’
Why it matters: Youngkin hasn't ruled out a presidential run. His stock would soar if Republicans win control of Virginia's legislature in November.
But a shutdown forced by Republicans in Congress would make that scenario more difficult for Youngkin — and send economic ripples through politically divided Virginia.
The state is home to more than 140,000 federal workers — half of them in Northern Virginia, just outside D.C. — plus thousands more who do business with the government.
The big picture: Youngkin — a star high-school basketball player from Hampton Road who went on to become a top private-equity executive — made national headlines in 2021 when he upset former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in a state Joe Biden had won by 10 points a year earlier.
Youngkin, 56, is widely viewed as a potential presidential candidate — and hasn't exactly tamped down speculation about that.
‘There might be others,’ Youngkin said at an Economic Club of Washington event yesterday, when asked whether he plans to run for another public office.
Youngkin has been barnstorming the commonwealth, urging voters to flip the state Senate and preserve Republicans' narrow edge in the House of Delegates.
His PAC raised $5.75 million last quarter — a record for any Virginia governor.
Youngkin wants to cut taxes, both personal and corporate, and give parents more say in what's taught in public schools.
The intrigue: Major GOP donors have made overtures to Youngkin and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp about jumping into the presidential race this cycle.
It's possible for Youngkin to get in the race after Virginia's Nov. 7 elections. But it would mean missing the filing deadlines for early presidential contests, including Nevada and South Carolina.” [Axios]
Amazon sued by FTC and 17 states over allegations it inflates online prices and overcharges sellers
“The lawsuit, filed Tuesday in federal court in Amazon’s home state of Washington, is the result of a yearslong investigation into the company and one of the most significant legal challenges brought against it in its nearly 30-year history. Read more.
Why this matters:
U.S. regulators and 17 states are suing Amazon over allegations the e-commerce behemoth abuses its position in the marketplace to inflate prices on and off its platform, overcharging sellers and stifling competition.
Some estimates show Amazon controls about 40% of the e-commerce market. A majority of the sales on its platform are facilitated by independent sellers. In return for access to its platform, Amazon rakes in billions through referral fees and advertising services.
The federal complaint follows other actions the FTC has taken against Amazon recently. In June, the agency sued Amazon, alleging it was using deceptive practices to enroll consumers into Amazon Prime and making it challenging to cancel subscriptions. And in late May, the company agreed to pay $25 million to settle allegations that it violated a child privacy law and misled parents about data deletion practices.” [AP News]
JPMorgan will pay $75 million on claims that it enabled Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking operations
“JPMorgan Chase has agreed to pay $75 million to the U.S. Virgin Islands to settle claims that the bank enabled the sex trafficking acts of financier Jeffrey Epstein. Most of the settlement will go toward local charities and assistance for victims.” Read More at AP News
California governor signs law raising taxes on guns and ammunition to pay for school safety
“The federal government already taxes the sale of guns and ammunition at either 10% or 11%, depending on the type of gun. The new laws add another 11% tax on top of that.” Read More at AP News
Hungary’s Wartime Snub
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sits in the main hall of the Hungarian parliament to attend the delegates’ first meeting on their fall agenda in Budapest, Hungary, on Sept. 25.Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images
“While Ukraine scrambles for support across the Atlantic, it’s losing allies in its own backyard. On Monday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that Budapest would no longer support Ukraine on any international issues until Kyiv restores language rights to ethnic Hungarians. Orban has long criticized a 2017 Ukrainian law restricting the use of minority languages in schools, arguing that 150,000 ethnic Hungarians are not allowed to learn in their native tongue.
Hungary’s foreign-policy cold shoulder comes as the European Union prepares to vote on Ukraine’s potential membership in December; accession to the bloc requires unanimous consent. Joining the EU has long been a goal of Ukraine’s, especially as membership would strengthen Kyiv’s war-battered economy. That makes Hungary’s support vital for Ukraine’s future.
However, Orban maintains close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As far-right autocratic leaders, the two have similarities in governance, ideology, and views on Western expansion. And despite Budapest working to diversify its gas supplies, Hungary still heavily relies on Moscow for oil and other critical resources.
This is not Hungary’s first time distancing itself from Kyiv to assuage Putin. Since Russia invaded in February 2022, Hungary has refused to ship weapons to Ukraine, choosing instead to take a more humanitarian approach. On Monday, even that avenue appeared to be under threat after Hungary rebuked the EU for asking it to open up a ‘solidarity corridor’ for transporting Ukrainian grain to Africa. Orban said the grain has instead been sold in Hungary, creating a surplus that has hurt the country’s domestic producers. ‘Brussels claimed that without Ukrainian grain, serious famine threatened African countries,’ Orban said regarding the bloc’s rationale for establishing the corridor following Russia’s de facto blockade of the Black Sea. ‘Let’s say it straight: They deceived us.’
In Monday’s announcement, Hungary also said it was in ‘no rush’ to ratify Sweden’s NATO bid, arguing that ‘nothing is threatening Sweden’s security.’ The statement reverses reports from just last week that signaled Hungary’s NATO acquiescence. Unanimous approval is required to join the 31-nation military alliance. Budapest originally said it would follow Turkey’s lead in approving Sweden’s membership request. But neither country appears eager to finalize that accession process.” [Foreign Policy]
“Yours, mine, or ours? Control over a contested shoal in the South China Sea fractured on Monday after the Philippines cut a 980-foot floating barrier first installed by Beijing. The ‘special operation’ was ordered by Philippine President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. to remove a navigational hazard that allegedly violates international law.
On Tuesday local time, the Philippines vowed to continue fighting Chinese maritime aggression as part of Manila’s latest effort to assert sovereignty over the waterway. ‘We have shown the world the Filipino people will not back down,’ said the Philippine Coast Guard’s spokesperson, ‘and we’re still going to consistently carry out whatever is necessary for us to maintain our presence.’ Meanwhile, top Chinese officials warned the Philippines against provoking China and reiterated Beijing’s ownership of the shoal.” [Foreign Policy]
“Introducing new sanctions. The U.S. Commerce Department expanded its export blacklist on Monday to include 28 new companies. A handful of these corporations have allegedly violated international sanctions by supplying Russia with military equipment, such as components for unmanned aerial drones. Firms from Russia, China, Pakistan, Finland, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany were targeted.
‘Our actions send a clear message to those trying to evade our export controls that there will be consequences for behavior that seeks to undermine U.S. national security interests,’ said Alan Estevez, the undersecretary of commerce for industry and security.” [Foreign Policy]
“A perilous road. Ethnic Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh faced unexpected danger on Monday when a gas station near Stepanakert, the region’s capital, exploded while refugees were refueling their cars. At least 68 people were killed and hundreds more wounded while trying to evacuate, local officials said on Tuesday. Displaced people have been warned not to rush to prevent congested roadways and further catastrophes.
According to the Armenian government, more than 28,000 people have entered Armenia since Azerbaijan ended its brief offensive in the disputed region last week. The Russian-brokered cease-fire grants Azerbaijan control over Nagorno-Karabakh, paving a way for Baku to fold ethnic Armenians into its constitution, but many fear their rights will not be respected given past experiences over decades of conflict.” [Foreign Policy]
“The populist right may be on the march across much of Europe, but in Britain signs are the moderate left is making a comeback.
Keir Starmer’s reinvigorated Labour Party is leading Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives by double digits as the UK’s two largest parties get ready for what could be their last annual conferences before a general election. He’s pledged to plow billions of pounds into green industries, invest in health care and tax private schools.
Yet much of the battle for Britain’s future is being waged on the political right, or at least the center-right.
Starmer, as Alex Wickham and Kitty Donaldson write, has risen by disavowing the policies of his more activist predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and courting business interests frustrated by sluggish growth and lackluster investment.
But Labour’s resurgence owes as much to a desire for change after 13 years of Tory rule, including the chaos of Brexit and the resignation of four prime ministers, as it does a reevaluation of the opposition.
Socially conservative voters in places like the north of England, who supported Brexit and rallied behind Boris Johnson in 2019, are frustrated by the pace of the promised ‘levelling up’ in less prosperous areas.
At the same time, Sunak has been trying to recast himself as a ‘sensible populist,’ as he views the success of farther-right parties in places like Italy.
If Starmer does win the next election, he could be facing a much different Conservative Party across the dispatch box. Possible contenders to succeed Sunak are staking out a harder-line agenda that highlights divisive issues such transgender rights and immigration.
Time will tell whether that’s a winning strategy as it appears to be elsewhere in Europe.” — Brendan Scott [Bloomberg]
Starmer in Blackpool. Photographer: Christopher Thomond/Guardian/eyevine/Redux
“The billionaire chairman of beleaguered property developer China Evergrande Group has been placed under police control, sources say. The decision to put Hui Ka Yan under so-called residential surveillance is the latest sign that the saga at the world’s most indebted developer has entered a new phase involving the criminal justice system as the property crisis remains a drag on the economy.” [Bloomberg]
“Overseas sales of Turkish combat drones are booming after their effectiveness was shown in fighting against Russia’s army in Ukraine. Read this rare interview with drone maker Selcuk Bayraktar, who says a new generation of pilotless aircraft will ‘revolutionize’ Turkey’s military influence from the Black Sea and the Caucasus to the eastern Mediterranean and the shores of North Africa.” [Bloomberg]
“Evo Morales ruled Bolivia for 14 years before losing a referendum on term limits and ultimately fleeing the country in ignominy. Back from exile, Morales is now seeking to emulate Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and stage a comeback, but a return to the presidency won’t be easy.” [Bloomberg]
“Egypt is intensifying talks with the IMF to unblock a $3 billion rescue deal that’s held up over state asset sales and the way the country manages its overvalued currency. This week’s decision to hold presidential elections on Dec. 10-12 means another devaluation is now unlikely to happen in the coming weeks as authorities walk the line between unlocking a second IMF tranche and minimizing the price pain for Egypt’s 105 million population.” [Bloomberg]
Hollywood deal includes historic AI rules
Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios
“The agreement to end the 148-day-long Hollywood writer strike includes landmark rules governing the use of AI in Hollywood projects, Axios' Sara Fischer writes.
Why it matters: Legal, creative and labor norms around AI are unsettled. These guidelines are likely to set patterns for the future.
The deal establishes regulations for the use of AI on projects covered by writers subject to the contract.
It says AI ‘can't write or rewrite literary material,’ and AI-generated material ‘can't be used to undermine a writer's credit or separated rights,’ which are held by a writer individually rather than by some larger entity.
Writers can choose to use AI when performing writing services with consent from their production partners, but they can't be forced to do so.
Studios are required to disclose to writers if any materials given to them have been generated by AI or incorporate AI-generated material. Usage of writers' material to train AI is prohibited.
The bottom line: The new deal gives writers most of what they had been asking for, including better wages, benefits and staffing minimums.” [Axios]
New "net neutrality"
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel announced plans to restore net neutrality rules previously reversed during the Trump administration, Axios' Maria Curi and Megan Morrone write.
Why it matters: If approved, net neutrality rules would place providers under the same classification as phone companies, allowing the FCC to treat the internet as an essential service subject to greater regulation.
Between the lines: The issue, which scrambles the usual political camps, is back now that the FCC finally has a Democratic majority.
The Obama-era rules — which proponents say are important for keeping the internet free and open — provoke passion among digital-rights groups, which fear messing with the free flow of information.
Tech companies warn against government impeding innovation.
Tim Wu, a Columbia professor and former Obama administration official who coined the term ‘net neutrality,’ tells Axios: ‘Net Neutrality is now more about preventing Big Tech from paying off the telecoms to protect them from any competitors.’
‘I think even the Republican party thinks that the tech firms need more competition.’” [Axios]
Travis Kelce's mom, Donna, and Taylor Swift at Sunday's Kansas City Chiefs game. Photo: Jason Hanna/Getty Images
“Sales of Travis Kelce merchandise jumped nearly 400% after Taylor Swift attended Sunday's Kansas City Chiefs game, Axios' Ivana Saric writes.” [Axios]