The Full Belmonte, 9/27/2022
Tampa faces historic calamity
Hurricane Ian forecast. Data: National Hurricane Center. Map: Jared Whalen/Axios
“The last time Tampa Bay took a direct hit from a major hurricane was more than 100 years ago.
That could change tomorrow, Ben Montgomery and Selene San Felice write for Axios Tampa Bay.
State of play: Hurricane Ian — which made landfall this morning over western Cuba — strengthened into a Category 3 storm as it tracks toward Florida's west coast.
Tampa Bay grew from a few hundred thousand people to more than 3 million since the last major hurricane struck in 1921, AP notes.” Read more at Axios
Residents fill sandbags yesterday at Helen Howarth Park in Pinellas Park, Fla., just outside St. Petersburg. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
A satellite image shows Hurricane Ian, now a Category 3 storm, as it approaches Cuba.
Bam! NASA spacecraft crashes into asteroid in defense test
By MARCIA DUNN
“CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — A NASA spacecraft rammed an asteroid at blistering speed Monday in an unprecedented dress rehearsal for the day a killer rock menaces Earth.
The galactic slam occurred at a harmless asteroid 7 million miles (11.3 million kilometers) away, with the spacecraft named Dart plowing into the space rock at 14,000 mph (22,500 kph). Scientists expected the impact to carve out a crater, hurl streams of rocks and dirt into space and, most importantly, alter the asteroid’s orbit.
‘We have impact!’ Mission Control’s Elena Adams announced, jumping up and down and thrusting her arms skyward.
Telescopes around the world and in space aimed at the same point in the sky to capture the spectacle. Though the impact was immediately obvious — Dart’s radio signal abruptly ceased — it will take as long as a couple of months to determine how much the asteroid’s path was changed.” Read more at AP News
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
“One of the highest profile trials related to the Jan. 6 insurrection begins today. The founder of the Oath Keepers and four others affiliated with the far-right group are charged with seditious conspiracy and accused of spending months recruiting, training and conspiring to use force to prevent the transfer of presidential power to Joe Biden.” Read more at NPR
Meadows Received Hundreds of Texts on Big Lie Plans: Book
“Previously unreported messages sent to Mark Meadows about ways to help Donald Trump overturn the 2020 election result have been published in a new book. The messages, which were given by former White House chief of staff Meadows to the House select committee investigating the attack on the Capitol, include a group chat with Trump cabinet officials and plans to object to Biden’s certification on Jan. 6 by GOP members of Congress and a former U.S. attorney. While many of Meadows’ texts have already been made public, the new messages disclosed in The Breach by former Republican congressman Denver Riggleman show alarming evidence of how all three branches of government were apparently attempting to come up with plans to thwart the election result being certified, it’s claimed.” [Daily Beast] Read it at The Guardian
“The Justice Department on Monday declared that their list of seized materials from the search of former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence was ‘full and accurate,’ despite Trump's claims of planted evidence. According to the FBI, the agency had only a single business day to compile the first version of the inventory -- filed several weeks ago -- but has since had more time to review and catalog the list. An FBI agent said the revisions to the new list were ‘minor.’ Trump now faces a Friday deadline to submit to the special master descriptions of any seized items that he claims are missing from the list, or items that were included in the inventory that he claimed, without evidence, the FBI may have planted during their search.” Read more at CNN
Student loans
“President Biden's plan to cancel up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt for low- and middle-income borrowers could cost $400 billion, according to a Congressional Budget Office report released Monday. Biden announced the forgiveness plan in August, after facing mounting pressure from Democrats to broadly cancel some student loan debt. The Department of Education plans to release an application for the program in October. Under the plan, individual borrowers who earned less than $125,000 in 2020 or 2021 and married couples or heads of households who made less than $250,000 annually in those years will see up to $10,000 of their federal student loan debt forgiven. If the borrower also received a federal Pell grant while enrolled in college, the individual is eligible for up to $20,000 of debt forgiveness.” Read more at CNN
World economy looks 2007 scary
Data: Yahoo Finance. Chart: Axios Visuals
“The S&P 500 hit its lowest point for the year (above), in what Bloomberg calls an ‘Everything-Selloff’ on Wall Street as bad news piles up around the world.
The index is down 23% so far in 2022.
Neil Irwin warned in our midday Axios Macro of some ominous parallels with Aug. 2007 — the beginning of the global financial crisis.
To be clear, we're not predicting anything as severe as the crisis that rocked the world in 2008. Rather, we're arguing that major (and accelerating) underlying shifts are underway — and likely to reverberate for years.
What's happened in the past few months — and with dizzying speed in the last several days — is markets adjusting to the possibility that the era of extremely low rates and liquidity is over, and the 2020s will be very different from the 2010s.
Top of today's Wall Street Journal
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid into a bear market — a drop of 20% or more from a recent high (Jan. 4) — for the first since the early days of COVID, The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription).
The S&P 500 has been in a bear market since June.” Read more at Axios
Politics
Funding for the government is set to run out when a new fiscal year begins on Saturday.Shuran Huang for The New York Times
“Congressional leaders last night released a stopgap funding proposalintended to avert a government shutdown and provide $12 billion more in aid to Ukraine.” Read more at New York Times
“Senator Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona Democrat, defended the filibuster at an event with Mitch McConnell, the G.O.P. Senate leader.” Read more at New York Times
Ukraine
“The so-called secession referendums in four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine are set to conclude today. With the results of the Russian-organized voting expected to be announced as soon as this evening, US officials anticipate Russia could move quickly to escalate its faltering war and annex those areas of Ukraine, potentially within days. Doing so would prompt a swift response from the US, which has pledged not to recognize the results. The US is not currently expected to respond until Russia has moved to annex the regions, officials said, and whether Russia ultimately attempts to do so remains to be seen.” Read more at CNN
Nord Stream operator decries ‘unprecedented’ damage to three pipelines
“The operator of the Nord Stream pipelines built to carry Russian gas to Europe on Tuesday reported ‘unprecedented’ damage to the system, raising suspicions of sabotage after mysterious leaks caused sudden drops in pressure to three underwater lines in the Baltic Sea.
The leaks had no immediate impact on energy supplies to the European Union but raised concerns about serious environmental damage from methane, a greenhouse gas that is a major contributor to climate change.
‘The damage that occurred in one day simultaneously at three lines of offshore pipelines of the Nord Stream system are unprecedented,’ the company, Nord Stream AG, said in a statement to Russian state news agencies.
Two of the damaged pipes are part of Nord Stream 1, normally a major transmission line of Russian natural gas to Europe, while the third is part of Nord Stream 2, which Western nations have blocked from becoming fully operational as part of sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Russia has cut transmission through Nord Stream 1 in retaliation for Western sanctions, though the Kremlin has also blamed technical failures. Gas, however, remains in the undersea pipelines even if deliveries are halted.
Nord Stream 2’s operator said pressure in the undersea pipeline dropped to 7 bar from 105 bar overnight.
Officials said that the damage may have been sabotage. ‘It is hard to imagine that it is accidental,’ Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in Poland, according to the Danish newspaper Politken. ‘We cannot rule out sabotage, but it is too early to conclude.’
Frederiksen spoke at a ceremony in Goleniów, Poland on Tuesday for the opening of the new Baltic Pipe, which will carry natural gas to Poland and neighboring countries from Norway through Denmark.
Europe has been scrambling to diversify supplies and reduce reliance on Russian energy.” Read more at Washington Post
Russians Paying $27K for Private Jet Flights to Dodge Draft
“Russians desperate to flee Vladimir Putin’s dreaded military draft are paying up to $27,000 each to secure a seat on a private jet as soaring demand for routes out of the country has sent airfares rocketing. Amid rumors of an imminent border closure to men of fighting age, wealthy Russians are predominantly fleeing to places like Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, which allow Russians to enter without a visa. To get there, they’re now willing to pay almost $30,000 each for a spot on board a private jet, with each eight-seater aircraft now able to charge $151,000 per rental—many times higher than the usual cost. ‘The situation is absolutely crazy at the moment,’ Yevgeny Bikov, director of broker jet company Your Charter, told The Guardian. ‘We would get 50 requests a day; now it is around 5,000.’ (Daily Beast) Read it at The Guardian
Vietnam imposes curfew, evacuations ahead of Typhoon Noru
“HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Vietnam imposed a curfew and evacuated over 800,000 people as a powerful typhoon that had flooded villages and left at least eight dead in the Philippines aimed Tuesday for the country’s central region.
People living near the coast where Typhoon Noru was expected to slam early Wednesday had been ordered to take shelter, national television VTV said. Schools were closed and public events canceled.
In Da Nang and Quang Nam provinces, a curfew will be in effect starting Tuesday evening. It forbids people from venturing out except those on official duty, the TV said.
Flights at five regional airports were canceled and train service halted until the typhoon passes.
The weather agency said Noru was packing maximum sustained winds of 180 kilometers (111 miles) per hour.
The typhoon deaths in the northern Philippines on Sunday included five rescuers who drowned in San Miguel town in Bulacan province after their boat overturned when it was hit by a collapsed wall, tossing them into rampaging floodwaters, police said.
Nearly 80,000 people had been moved to emergency shelters, some forcibly, across the main Luzon island, where many villages were flooded.” Read more at AP News
“In late June, the coldest part of the Southern Hemisphere winter, the power went out in South Africa. For as many as eight hours a day, traffic lights went dark and factories and offices shut. Intermittent supply cuts over the past 14 years had already sapped business confidence and limited private investment, but these outages were the worst yet. As Antony Sguazzin, Prinesha Naidoo and Paul Burkhardtwrite, fixing state utility Eskom and its rickety electricity system is proving a crucial test for the ruling party ahead of elections in 2024.” Read more at Bloomberg
Street vendors say business drops after sunset because customers don’t feel safe walking unlit streets. Photographer: Ilan Godfrey for Bloomberg Markets
Cubans overwhelmingly voted in favor of equal marriage in a referendum on Sunday.Yamil Lage/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“Cuba will allow same-sex couples to marry and adopt children.” Read more at New York Times
230-year low
Data: FRED, Bank of England, FactSet. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
“Axios' Matt Phillips got his hands on data going back to 1792, showing the British pound yesterday hit a 230-year low against the dollar.
Why it matters: It's the financial equivalent of a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Liz Truss, who took office Sept. 6.” Read more at Axios
“Japan held an elaborate state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe today. Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, was shot dead during a campaign speech in July, stunning a nation where gun violence is extremely rare. More than 4,300 guests attended the service in Tokyo, including Vice President Kamala Harris and other foreign dignitaries. While many mourners left flowers and visited memorial sites to pay their respects to the late leader, thousands took to the streets in anti-funeral protests across Tokyo. The demonstrations grew tense at times as large groups of protesters voiced their discontent about Abe's policies while in office and their opposition to the high cost of the funeral while the country grapples with rising inflation.” Read more at CNN
Taiwan preps for cyberwar
Students learn to distinguish Chinese and Taiwanese military uniforms in Taipei. Photo: Sebastian Kjeldtoft
“TAIPEI — An infusion of cash from a Taiwanese semiconductor magnate is helping fund new cyber defense training for Taiwanese citizens, Axios China author Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian writes.
Why it matters: The goal is to fight online disinformation and hybrid warfare that could accompany a potential Chinese military assault.
A growing number of people in Taiwan are studying Ukrainian resistance tactics.” Read more at Axios
King Charles: New royal cypher revealed
“The cypher of King Charles III has been revealed, showing an image to be used by government departments and on state documents and post boxes.
It was personally chosen by the King, from a range of designs produced by the College of Arms.
The monogram combines his initial "C" and "R" for Rex, the Latin for king, plus III for the third King Charles.
The cypher, a visual identity for the new reign, replaces the E II R of Queen Elizabeth II.” Read more at Axios
“‘Very hot’ days are those with a high at or above the 1991-2020 95th percentile temperature for the area. Data: Census Bureau, NOAA. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
9 of the 10 fastest-growing U.S. major metro areas are getting significantly hotter — and many face danger from other natural disasters.
Why it matters: This accelerating trend will strain cities' water supplies and power grids, and put lots of Americans at risk of heat-related health crises, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Erin Davis report.
We defined ‘very hot’ days as those with a high temperature in the top 5% ever recorded for that particular city.
Las Vegas, Austin and Raleigh grew the fastest in ‘very hot’ days between 1991-2020, with increases of 115%, 553% and 59%, respectively.
What's happening: Americans are flocking to cities with a high risk of inhospitable conditions.
In Florida, populations are booming up and down the state's coasts, where hurricanes (including this week's fearsome Ian) are an annual threat. Miami already struggles to keep up with rising floodwaters.
Houston has perennial hurricane danger.
Southern California faces growing threats from wildfires.” Read more at Axios
Report: Black Americans more likely to be wrongfully convicted
Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios
“Black Americans are seven times more likely than white people to be falsely convicted of serious crimes, and spend longer in prison before exoneration, Axios' Russell Contreras writes from a new report.
The study, from the National Registry of Exonerations, examined defendants who were exonerated after serving at least part of a sentence — sometimes spending decades in prison.
The findings: Black people represent 13.6% of the American population, but account for 53% of 3,200 exonerations in the registry as of Aug. 8, 2022, according to the report.
Innocent Black Americans were 7½ times more likely to be convicted of murder than innocent white people, the study found.
The convictions that led to murder exonerations of Black defendants were almost 50% more likely to include misconduct by police officers.
What we're watching: The number of murder exonerations is increasing — many of them Black murder defendants who spent decades in prison.
Most of those long-serving Black murder defendants were exonerated by a handful of big city prosecutorial conviction integrity units (CIUs). More are likely on the way.
Context: A Baltimore City judge last week vacated the conviction of Adnan Syed, the subject of the popular ‘Serial’ podcast, which cast doubt on his conviction in the 1999 murder of Hae Min Lee.
What's next: HBO Documentary Films announced last week that it's in production on a follow-up episode to the critically acclaimed, four-part documentary series, ‘The Case Against Adnan Syed.’” Read more at Axios
“The White House thinks it's time we rethink food. Biden's administration revealed an expansive plan to make the U.S. healthier ahead of a conference on hunger, nutrition and health. The last conference, in 1969, sparked groundbreaking programs like food stamps. The plan includes:
Expanding food security programs like free school lunches for all students and meals during the summer months.
Treating food like medicine through programs that would cover medically tailored meals and nutrition services.
Putting food labels on the front of packages to make them more visible.
However, support for these programs hinges on a divided Congress, and the ideas could take years to be implemented.” Read more at NPR
“Monday night rivalry: The Dallas Cowboys held off their N.F.C. East rivalNew York Giants 23-16 last night. Dallas QB Cooper Rush, thrust into the spotlight in Week 1, held his own as his defense took care of the rest. The game closed out a topsy-turvy Week 3.” Read more at New York Times
“Aaron Judge stuck at 60: The New York Yankees star hasn’t homered in six games and needs two over the last nine games of the season to break Roger Maris’s American League single-season record. Judge was intentionally walkedin the 10th inning in a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays last night.” Read more at New York Times
An N.F.L. superstar in a scary accident: Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett was involved in a one-car crash leaving the team practice facility yesterday afternoon. His injuries were not life-threatening and he was transported to the hospital, where his agent said he was ‘alert and responsive.’” Read more at New York Times
“Lives Lived: As New Jersey’s Democratic governor in the early 1990s, Jim Florio banned assault weapons and fought pollution. Tax hikes undid his re-election bid. He died at 85.” Read more at New York Times