The Full Belmonte, 9/25/2023
A deal to end Hollywood's writers' strike
The deal could end Hollywood's longest strike in decades. Source: Reuters
“The Writers Guild of America (WGA) says it has reached a tentative deal with studio bosses that could end a strike that has lasted nearly five months. Union members will have their say on a deal WGA is calling ‘exceptional - with meaningful gains and protections for writers’. The dispute has shut down many top shows, including The Last of Us, Billions, Stranger Things, The Handmaid's Tale and Hacks, as well as several high-profile US talk shows. Writers had raised issues around pay, as well as the use of artificial intelligence in screenwriting. It is still unclear whether production will resume in Hollywood, where actors are also on a separate strike. The actors' union, SAG-AFTRA, congratulated the striking writers on the outcome and praised their ‘146 days of incredible strength, resiliency and solidarity’.
•The issues explained: Los Angeles correspondent Sophie Long on why the Hollywood writers walked out.
•Mystery robots: Here's why screenwriters fear the impact of AI on their jobs.” [BBC]
© The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) at the Capitol on Sept. 21.
This will be an intense week in politics
“In the minds of House ultra-conservatives, a battle to make a point about the nation’s escalating debt and most expensive drivers of federal spending is worth risking a shutdown.
But the legislative strategies that could shutter the bureaucracy Oct. 1 won’t put any kind of dent in the entitlement engines behind forecasts of soaring spending over the next decade and won’t target the programs with the biggest dollar signs.
Today in addition to shutdown warnings, we’re eyeing a second Republican presidential debate, a House impeachment hearing Thursday and lawmakers’ reactions to the indictment on Friday of New Jersey Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez. Plus, a tentative deal reached on Sunday could resolve the Writers Guild strike.
IT’S POSSIBLE in the House that firebrands on the right will find themselves frozen to the sidelines later this week as House and Senate negotiators work with Democrats to assemble enough votes to keep the government open. The fiscal hawks could lose their shutdown showdown on substance and on politics — and they will be deeply upset.
‘The people back in my district, they’re tired of the way this town works,’ said Rep. Elijah Crane (R-Ariz.), who joined other conservatives in the last week to stymie Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s attempts to move a few appropriations bills (The Washington Post).
‘They understand there’s no appetite to spend money we don’t have, and they expect me to do whatever I can to stop it, and to change how we do business. It’s not always the most comfortable thing,’ Crane said.
McCarthy, too, might be sidelined if he lacks the juice to overcome a rare blockade by a small number of Republicans who object to passing any of the 12 appropriations measures that fund the government, including defense and homeland security. Not all of their demands are in sync. Some are vaguely conceived, forcing the Speaker to express his exasperation.
Reuters: McCarthy will push an ambitious plan this week to win approval of four large bills: Defense, Agriculture, State-Foreign Operations and Homeland Security.
President Biden and other administration officials over the weekend stepped up their warnings about a possible shutdown. Congressman Crane insists he is doing what his constituents want. The president on Saturday argued the opposite. ‘It’s time for Republicans to start doing the job America elected them to do,’ he said during an event in which he railed against ‘extreme Republicans’ who he said could force air travelers to face delays, impact food safety and Head Start (The New York Times).
The White House last week began highlighting popular or necessary federal programs that could be impacted if there’s a lapse in funding.
MCCARTHY AND SENATE LEADERS from both parties may end up trying a work-around to avert a shutdown, but it would involve Democratic votes and pit the House and the Senate, now the Mars and Venus of governance, into a serious cliffhanger by the end of the week.
Congress does not resume work until Tuesday, so everything is down to the wire after much intraparty feuding and threatened political paybacks.
House Republican renegades know what they don’t want. They oppose a stopgap spending bill, arguing they’d be buying more time to repeat the same arguments into November or December. They object to voting for individual spending measures for all of the next fiscal year. They don’t favor more funding for Ukraine. They’re not keen on adding to the deficit with higher disaster relief funding. They want to hold spending at 2022 levels, while senators of both parties favor higher spending, including more aid to Ukraine.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wants to avoid a lapse in funding by moving first on a stopgap measure that will pass the upper chamber, then send that bill to the House and pressure McCarthy to put it on the floor for a vote, where it would pass with bipartisan support, leaning on the Democrats. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports why some GOP senators fret about that option.
EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR PLAN Z. Here are some of the options being discussed (The Hill).
McCarthy, still counting votes, on Saturday did a U turn about possibly stripping out funding for Ukraine assistance (Politico). ‘It became too difficult to do that, so we’re leaving it in,’ he told reporters.
Guaranteed: That won’t be the final public reversal the Speaker makes this week.” [The Hill]
The Supreme Court will hear a case with a lot of ‘buts’ & ‘ifs’ over the meaning of ‘and’
“How to interpret a simple conjunction has prompted a complicated legal fight set to land in the Supreme Court on Oct. 2, the first day of its new term. The decision reached by the justices could impact thousands of prison sentences each year. Read more.
Why this matters:
The case requires the close parsing of part of a federal statute, the First Step Act, which aims to reduce mandatory minimum sentences and give judges more discretion. Different federal courts disagree about whether the word, as used in a bipartisan 2018 criminal justice overhaul, means “and” or if it means “or.”
The justices will examine a so-called safety valve provision meant to spare low-level, nonviolent drug dealers from longer sentences if they agree to plead guilty and cooperate with prosecutors.
Nearly 6,000 people convicted of drug trafficking in the 2021 budget year alone are in the eligibility pool for reduced sentences, according to U.S. Sentencing Commission data. Overall, more than 10,000 people could be affected, according to a sentencing expert.” [AP News]
“It was a shocker of a poll, drawing derision and defensiveness, that over the weekend showed former US President Donald Trump 10 percentage points clear of the incumbent, Joe Biden.
The Washington Post, which conducted the 2024 presidential survey with ABC News, twisted itself into a pretzel trying to explain just what an outlier it was. One pollster decried it as ‘ridiculous’ and invited people to ignore it. But to do so would be a mistake.
Taken together with an NBC poll, the overall picture that emerges is that there is a risk, just like there was in 2016, of underestimating Trump and his chances of prevailing in a rematch with Biden.
Neither man is particularly popular. Voters are unhappy to be presented with a rerun between two seniors, but the question of age is more acute for Biden, 80, than for Trump, 77.
The NBC poll shows that three-quarters of registered voters are worried Biden doesn’t have the necessary mental and physical health to serve a second term.
Trump is seen cruising to the November election having crushed his rivals in a packed Republican primary race. He won’t even deign to debate them.
The most telling numbers deal with how much worse off Americans are feeling. The president can make a compelling case for his stewardship of the economy, but he doesn’t seem to be getting credit for it. Fewer than 4-in-10 voters approve of his handling of it, the NBC poll shows.
Yes, it is a truth now universally acknowledged, just how unreliable and wayward polls can be, going all the way back to the UK’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union and beyond. And the NBC poll found that the four indictments are weighing heavily on Trump, too.
But for Democrats, the key takeaway might be that a narrative constructed around why it has to be Biden again — because he was the one who defeated Trump in 2020 and he alone can do it again — may be fundamentally flawed.” — Flavia Krause-Jackson [Bloomberg]
Trump and Biden during a presidential debate on Oct. 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photographer: Morry Gash and Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
Storm Ophelia
“Ophelia, now a post-tropical cyclone, dumped heavy rainfall across parts of the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Forecasters say the storm is weakening as it treks up the East Coast, but may still bring more rain to areas that were drenched over the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center warned of localized flash floods, with "urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable." Over the weekend, New Yorkers who live in basement apartments in flood-prone areas were told to prepare to move to higher ground and avoid driving on flooded streets or entering flooded subway stations. States of emergency were also declared in Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland.” [CNN]
Trump dodges threat
Supporters wait for former President Trump at a rally Sept. 8 in Rapid City, S.D. Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
“Activists' push to use the 14th Amendment to block former President Trump from state ballots hasn't gained traction:
State election officials have been reluctant to act before courts weigh in, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.
Why it matters: This shatters a big dream of resistance Twitter, demolishing one of the huge X factors for the 2024 election.
What's happening: Groups in at least eight states urged elections officials to disqualify Trump based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bans anyone who's taken part in a rebellion against the government from holding a state or federal office.
But secretaries of state won't act unilaterally to ban Trump. Instead, they're looking to the courts to rule on whether his actions leading to the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021 are disqualifying.
‘We're not the eligibility police,’ Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) told Axios. ‘We are responsible for ensuring that basic facts are met to get someone on the ballot.’
‘If we become political actors instead of election administrators, then we risk being a part of ... the deterioration of democracy,’ Benson said.
New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan (R) said at a news conference this month that a decision by an elections official without a court ruling first could create ‘chaos, confusion, anger and frustration.’” [Axios]
Covid-19 tests
“US households can order up to four free Covid-19 tests from the government starting today. The tests are available online at Covidtests.gov as part of a relaunched program to provide free home tests to Americans. The program was suspended in May after the end of the public health emergency to preserve the US stockpile. The relaunch comes as Covid-19 hospitalizations have been on the rise in the country for months, with weekly admissions now more than triple what they were two months ago. Last week, a White House official acknowledged increased infections and hospital admissions nationally but noted that levels remain substantially lower than during past Covid surges.” [CNN]
The CDC recommended an RSV vaccine for pregnant women.
“The details: Expectant mothers should get the shot if they are between 32 and 36 weeks pregnant and will give birth in the fall or winter, a panel of experts said Friday.
Why it matters: RSV is the top cause of hospitalizations in babies. The recommendation comes as the seasonal spread of viral illness is beginning to ramp up.”
Read this story at Washington Post
WORLD HEADLINES
“Few took Robert Fico seriously when he vowed to return after being forced out as Slovakia’s longest-serving prime minister as a result of massive 2018 protests. Now an unlikely comeback looms in Sept. 30 elections amid reaction to the war in Ukraine in a country with the region’s most pro-Russian population. Fico has vowed to end military aid to Ukraine, further testing the EU’s ability to remain united against Russia.” [Bloomberg]
“Ukraine’s military said troops made advances along the southern frontline against entrenched Russian defenses as part of its four-month-old counteroffensive. Kyiv’s forces moved forward near the village of Verbove in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, as they push toward the city of Tokmak, a Russian stronghold, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.” [Bloomberg]
Ukrainian servicemen with a Leopard 2 tank in Zaporizhzhia on Sept. 15. Photographer: Vincenzo Circosta/Getty Images
“Three years ago, Greece and Turkey looked to be on the brink of war, and even this time last year Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were trading barbs. Read how the NATO allies are now making a historic push to reconcile, recognizing that both sides stand to gain if they can turn the page.” [Bloomberg]
“The UK’s main opposition Labour Party suffered a thumping defeat in 2019 under left-wing leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose shadow finance minister once brandished Mao Zedong’s Little Red Book in Parliament. Now the party of Keir Starmer is keener to emulate another former leader, Tony Blair, who secured office after winning the confidence of business.” [Bloomberg]
“A shootout in Kosovo yesterday between Serbs and police left four dead, including an ethnic Albanian officer, in the Balkan nation’s bloodiest clash in almost two decades. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a status that Serbia refuses to recognize.” [Bloomberg]
“South Korea wants Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit for the first time in about a decade, seeing a trip as turning a page in relations that have shifted as Seoul more closely aligns itself with the US.” [Bloomberg]
“President Emmanuel Macron said French troops will leave Niger by year’s end, bowing to the demands of a junta whose coup in the former colony has upended France’s strategy in Africa.” [Bloomberg]
“Erdogan will travel today to a part of Azerbaijan that’s cut off from the rest of the country as he seeks to capitalize on regional turbulence to advance plans for a trade route through the Caucasus.” [Bloomberg]
•”Armed policing: After a police firearms officer was charged with murder over the shooting of an unarmed man, dozens of London's more than 2,500 armed officers turned in their weapons permits in protest. Now, the UK's Ministry of Defence says soldiers could step in to support firearms duties.” [BBC]
•”Mafia boss dies: Matteo Messina Denaro - one of Italy's most wanted men until his capture earlier this year - has died aged 61. He was thought to be a boss of the notorious Cosa Nostra Mafia and was being treated for cancer when he was arrested.” [BBC]
The wooden arrow.Espen Finstad
“An archaeologist found a 3,000-year-old arrow in Norway. It is among the thousands of artifacts emerging as climate change thaws permafrost and glaciers.” [New York Times]
Amazon's big AI move
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“Opening a major new front in the AI arms race, Amazon announced early this morning that it'll invest up to $4 billion in Anthropic, a top competitor to OpenAI, the group behind ChatGPT.
Why it matters: This gives Amazon a close relationship with a big AI startup, akin to Microsoft's alliance with OpenAI, the Financial Times notes.
The announcement says the two-year-old Anthropic will use Amazon Web Services' Trainium and Inferentia chips ‘to build, train, and deploy its future foundation models, benefitting from the price, performance, scale, and security of AWS.’
Amazon committed an initial $1.25 billion for a minority ownership stake in Anthropic, reports said. That could grow to $4 billion.
Between the lines: ‘In taking money from Amazon as well as Google, Anthropic is embracing several cloud infrastructure companies, which ... distinguishes it from the exclusive partnership OpenAI has with Microsoft,’ The Wall Street Journal notes.” [Axios]
SPORTS
“Pittsburgh wins: The Steelers beat the Las Vegas Raiders, 23-18, with a strong defensive performance.” [New York Times]
“Around the league: The Miami Dolphins scored 70 points, the most in an N.F.L. game since 1966, in a rout of the Denver Broncos. And the Chicago Bears’ struggles continued — with a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, they have now lost 13 straight games going back to last season.” [New York Times]
“N.F.L.: Women are increasingly taking on roles as scouts and assistant coaches. They have formed support systems to navigate the male-dominated world.” [New York Times]
“Dartmouth: Buddy Teevens, a pioneering football coach who banned tackling during practices, died at 66.” [New York Times]
“U.S. women’s soccer: Megan Rapinoe played her final international match, in a game against South Africa. The U.S. side won, 2-0.” [New York Times]
“Baseball: The Yankees lost to the Diamondbacks, 7-1, failing to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.” [New York Times]
Tigst Assefa shatters women’s marathon world record in Berlin
“Tigst Assefa broke the women’s world record by more than two minutes Sunday at the Berlin Marathon, as Eliud Kipchoge won the men’s race for the fifth time but couldn’t break his own record. Ethiopian runner Assefa, the winner in Berlin a year ago, ran the race in 2 hours, 11 minutes, 53 seconds to break the previous women’s record of 2:14:04 set by Kenya’s Brigid Kosgei at the Chicago Marathon in 2019.” Read more at USA Today
Ethiopia's Tigst Assefa celebrates after crossing the finish line to win the Berlin Marathon.
Andreas Gora, AP
ARTS AND IDEAS
“¡Presente!,” the first preview exhibition.Tony Powell/The Smithsonian National Museum of the American Latino
“Battle over history: Construction has not yet begun on the Smithsonian’s National Museum of the American Latino, but a political fight is already boilingover how the museum will present its material. Conservative commentators blasted its first preview exhibition, accusing it of putting a Marxist bent on history, and a group of Latino Republican congressmen led a vote to eliminate the museum’s funding. The outcry led the museum’s director to replace a planned exhibition on civil rights with one about salsa music, to the dismay of some Latino scholars.” [New York Times]