The Full Belmonte, 9/14/2022
Two inflation rates: Bad and worse
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios
“Pockets of high inflation — particularly in the West and South — are snarling Democratic efforts to hold the Senate, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.
The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.3% over the past year, according to surprising data released yesterday. That's awfully high — and it's even worse for lots of pivotal voters.
The Phoenix metro area — home to roughly two-thirds of voters in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is up against Republican Blake Masters — saw inflation rise 13% year-over-year. That's the highest local metropolitan reading in the country.
The second highest metro rate is 11.7%, in the Atlanta area — home to 6 in 10 voters represented by Sen. Raphael Warnock.
The Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, where Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is facing a challenge from Rep. Val Demings (D), clocked in with the third-biggest local report.
White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain is closely watching AAA's updates on gas prices.
The national average is $3.70 a gallon, down from $5.02 in June.
But prices are notably higher out West — sitting at $4.93 in Nevada, $4.05 in Arizona and $5.43 in California.
Between the lines: Americans — and voters — are living in a variety of economic micro-climates, with disparities driven by differences in energy, food and hosting costs.
There's no way to sugarcoat the overall number, which diminished hope for Fed Chair Jay Powell to achieve a ‘soft-landing’ for the economy, Axios' Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown write.
President Biden has largely blamed the war in Ukraine and snarled supply chains for rising prices, but has been quick to take credit for falling gas prices.
The other side: 8.1% inflation in the Philadelphia area — where Dr. Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman are fighting it out in the suburbs for the open Pennsylvania Senate seat — is just below the national average.
The intrigue: In America's biggest media centers — home to so many TV executives, reporters and campaign strategists — inflation isn't as bad.
It was an annual 6.6% in the New York area and 7.6% in L.A. in August. The D.C. area was 7.5% in July.” Read more at Axios
Worst day for stocks in 2 years
Data: YCharts. Chart: Axios Visuals
“A searing inflation report spooked investors, giving stocks their steepest daily drop since the scary early COVID months, Axios' Matt Phillips writes.
The S&P 500 fell 4.3%. It was the market's worst day in an awful year — and its deepest single-day decline since it suffered a 5.9% collapse on June 11, 2020.
The S&P, a broad market index, is down 17.5% this year — on track for its worst annual showing since 2009, when it fell a horrific 38.5%.
Tech stocks got beaten up especially badly, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite falling 5.2%. It's now down 26% this year.
What we're watching: Yields on U.S. government bonds — sometimes referred to as ‘interest rates’ — which are the real source of the stock market's pain.
Treasury yields moved sharply higher after the inflation report hit, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve would have to keep raising the short-term rates it's been jacking up for most of the year to try to contain inflation.
Today's Wall Street Journal front page
The bottom line: The stock market's woes won't abate until people think interest rates can stop rising.” Read more at Axios
Russia spent millions in secret global political campaign, U.S. official says
“Russia has secretly funneled at least $300 million to foreign political parties and candidates in more than two dozen countries since 2014 in an attempt to shape political events beyond its borders, according to a new U.S. intelligence review.
Moscow planned to spend hundreds of millions of dollars more as part of its covert campaign to weaken democratic systems and promote global political forces seen as aligned with Kremlin interests, according to the review, which the Biden administration commissioned this summer.
A senior U.S. official, who spoke to reporters Tuesday on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence findings, said the administration decided to declassify some of the review’s findings in an attempt to counter Russia’s ability to sway political systems in countries in Europe, Africa and elsewhere.
‘By shining this light on Russian covert political financing and Russian attempts to undermine democratic processes, we’re putting these foreign parties and candidates on notice that if they accept Russian money secretly we can and we will expose it,’ the official said.
The senior official pointed to one Asian country they declined to name where the Russian ambassador allegedly gave millions of dollars in cash to a presidential candidate. Officials said that Kremlin-linked forces have also used shell companies, think tanks and other means to influence political events, sometimes to the benefit of far-right groups.
A State Department démarche Monday to U.S. embassies in more than 100 countries described the alleged Russian activities and suggested steps the United States can take to push back, including sanctions and travel bans. The cable, which officials provided to reporters, named Russian oligarchs it said were involved in what it described as ‘financing schemes,’ including Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Aleksandr Babakov. Prigozhin, who is wanted by the FBI, was charged by U.S. officials in 2018 with attempting to interfere in the 2016 U.S. elections.” Read more at Washington Post
Lindsey Graham proposes new national abortion restrictions bill
“Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) introduced a bill on Tuesday that would ban abortion nationally after 15 weeks.
Driving the news: ‘We will introduce legislation ... to get America in a position at the federal level I think is fairly consistent with the rest of the world,’ Graham said Tuesday in announcing the legislation.
The legislation includes exceptions for situations involving rape, incest or risks to the life and physical health of the mother.
‘If we take back the House and Senate, I can assure you we'll have a vote’ on the bill, Graham added.
The big picture: Graham has previously introduced bills that sought to ban abortions nationally from 20 weeks.
Graham's plan comes less than two months out from the midterm elections, with abortion expected to be an important issue for voters following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Republican candidates across the U.S. have moved to disappear hardline anti-abortion stances they took during their primaries, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina.
The other side: ‘Proposals like the one today send a clear message from MAGA Republicans to women across the country: Your body, our choice,’ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday.
‘Rather than expanding women's rights, MAGA Republicans would curtail them. Rather than giving individuals the freedom to make their own health care choices, they hand that power over to radical politicians,’ Schumer said.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement that Graham's bill ‘is wildly out of step with what Americans believe.’
‘President Biden and Congressional Democrats are committed to restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade in the face of continued radical steps by elected Republicans to put personal health care decisions in the hands of politicians instead of women and their doctors, threatening women's health and lives,’ she added.
Thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Solender: Graham's bill is designed to present Republicans as being more mainstream on abortion by pushing a partial ban over either a full ban or what they characterize as Democrats' ‘abortion on-demand’ position.” Read more at Axios
Republicans Struggle to Unite Party Around National Abortion Restrictions
By Lisa Lerer and Elizabeth Dias
Sept. 13, 2022
“For weeks, anti-abortion activists and their Republican allies have been quietly seeking to rally their party around a single platform on abortion, hoping to settle divisions and blunt political damage from an issue with growing potency in the midterm elections.
But when Senator Lindsey Graham came ahead on Tuesday with a proposed 15-week national abortion ban intended to unite his party, the result was only more division.
Mr. Graham’s Senate allies swiftly distanced themselves from the plan, reflecting a lack of consensus in the party, as well as deep resistance to being drawn into any debates over abortion while economic issues hold more sway with swing voters.
The rapid rejection of Mr. Graham’s gambit was the latest misfire in the party’s struggle to unite behind a clear strategy on an issue that has reshaped campaigns across the country. Despite decades of Republican efforts to overturn Roe v. Wade, when the Supreme Court ultimately took that step in June, the G.O.P. was caught flat-footed, with no unified national abortion strategy ready to put into place.
While Democrats have been energized in the months since, vowing to fight for access and firing up their voters in the process, Republicans have offered a wide range of proposals and battled in state legislatures to enact them.
‘The Republican response has been disastrous,’ said Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, who pushed for Mr. Graham’s bill. But now, she said, ‘They are finding their voice.’
Ms. Dannenfelser is now urging Senate candidates to endorse Mr. Graham’s federal ban, which includes exceptions for rape, incest and the life or physical health of the mother. While the policy is more restrictive than previous Senate proposals, it falls well short of the six-week national ban some social conservatives have wanted. A 15-week limit could allow the vast majority of abortions to continue. (In 2019, 93 percent of abortions happened before 13 weeks of pregnancy, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)
Some Republicans in the Senate greeted the idea dismissively. Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the minority leader, who has previously said that his party was unlikely to pursue an abortion ban, told reporters on Tuesday that he thought the issue should be left up to the states and that most members of his conference agreed.
When pressed on the details of Mr. Graham’s bill, Mr. McConnell sought to distance himself, saying, ‘You’ll have to ask him about it.’” Read more at New York Times
West Virginia Passes Strict Abortion Ban
The bill, which has some exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, will go into effect immediately if the governor signs it.
The West Virginia Senate and House of Delegates came to an agreement on Tuesday after disagreeing on an abortion bill in July.Credit...Kristian Thacker for The New York Times
Sept. 13, 2022
“West Virginia on Tuesday became the latest state to pass a near-total ban on abortion, with the two chambers of the Legislature reaching a compromise after deadlocking on the terms earlier this summer.
During a special session in July, the House and Senate disagreed in particular on whether abortion providers should face jail time. But in another special session that began this week, the Republican-dominated Legislature voted overwhelmingly for an amended version that would make abortions illegal in nearly all circumstances, with the exception of medical emergencies that put the mother’s life at risk or, if certain conditions were met, in cases of rape or incest.
With the roar of protesters occasionally echoing outside — and at times within — the two chambers, the Senate passed an amended version of the earlier bill with about three-quarters support and then adjourned. Several hours later, the House passed it by an even larger margin. Gov. Jim Justice, a Republican, was expected to sign the bill into law, which would go into effect immediately afterward.” Read more at New York Times
Louisiana woman carrying skull-less fetus forced to travel to New York for an abortion
Nancy Davis suffered ‘unspeakable pain’ due to the poorly worded law that meant a hospital in her home state refused to terminate the pregnancy
Ramon Antonio Vargas in New York
Wed 14 Sep 2022 02.00
“An expectant Louisiana woman who was carrying a skull-less fetus that would die within a short time from birth ultimately traveled about 1,400 miles to New York City to terminate her pregnancy after her local hospital denied her an abortion amid uncertainty over the procedure’s legality.
Nancy Davis, 36, told the Guardian that she had her pregnancy terminated on 1 September after traveling from her home town of Baton Rouge to a clinic in Manhattan whose staff had agreed to complete the procedure.
Davis’s trek was necessary because Louisiana has outlawed abortion with very few exceptions after the US supreme court’s decision in June to eliminate federal abortion rights which were established by its 1973 Roe v Wade ruling. New York is among the states where abortion remains legal.
Davis was about 10 weeks pregnant in late July when an ultrasound at Woman’s hospital in Baton Rouge – Louisiana’s capital – showed that her fetus was missing the top of its skull, a rare but fatal condition known as acrania that kills babies within days – and sometimes minutes – of birth.
Louisiana’s abortion ban contains a general exception for fetuses that cannot survive outside their mothers’ wombs, and the law’s author – state senator Katrina Jackson – has insisted that Davis could have legally obtained an abortion without having to go across the country.
But Louisiana’s list of conditions justifying an exception from the state’s abortion ban did not explicitly include acrania. So officials at the hospital where Davis had her ultrasound refused to provide an abortion for her, apparently fearing that they could be exposed to prison time, fines and forfeiture of their licenses to practice if they performed the procedure.
‘Basically … I [would have] to carry my baby to bury my baby,’ Davis has previously said.
After Davis spoke out in the media about her ordeal, more than a thousand people donated nearly $40,000 to an online GoFundMe campaign for Davis to travel to a state where it was certain that she could legally get an abortion. She had initially planned to go to North Carolina, but during a brief telephone conversation on Tuesday, she said she ended up going to a Planned Parenthood facility in Manhattan.
Davis is only one member of a group of women or girls who have been forced to take gut-wrenching actions in the aftermath of the elimination of nationwide abortion rights.
A Florida court recently blocked a pregnant 16-year-old girl from having an abortion, deeming her too immature to decide whether she should have an abortion and instead requiring the teenager to give birth to a baby.
Meanwhile, earlier in the summer, a 10-year-old Ohio girl who was raped and impregnated had to travel to neighboring Indiana to terminate her pregnancy because her state had banned most abortions.
Most abortions are set to become illegal in Indiana as of Thursday, too.
Davis appeared outside Louisiana’s capitol building in late August alongside the civil rights attorney Ben Crump and called on the state’s lawmakers to at least clarify the wording of their abortion ban – if not repeal it entirely – so that no one else would have to endure what she has.
Crump said Davis – who is raising a daughter and two stepchildren with her partner – suffered ‘unspeakable pain, emotional damage and physical risk’ because of the poorly worded law. Lawmakers, Crump added, ‘replaced care with confusion, privacy with politics and options with ideology’.
For her part, Davis said: ‘This [was] not fair to me. And it should not happen to any other woman.’” Read more at The Guardian
Twitter whistleblower's warning
Peiter ‘Mudge’ Zatko arrives to testify yesterday. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
“Twitter's former security chief, Peiter ‘Mudge’ Zatko, levied a host of accusations against the platform in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee. But his testimony didn't appear to offer much new ammunition for Elon Musk, Axios' Peter Allen Clark and Sam Sabin report.
Why it matters: When Zatko's complaint became public last month, it appeared his complaints could be used in Musk's defense.
Zatko alleged Twitter maintained lax security standards, didn't vet employee access to user data — and didn't improve practices even in the face of government fines.
The other side: Twitter has said Zatko's complaint is ‘riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies.’” Read more at Axios
MyPillow’s Mike Lindell Is Served Search Warrant
The prominent promoter of 2020 election conspiracies says the F.B.I. seized his cellphone and asked him about his ties to a Colorado county clerk who is under indictment.
By Charles Homans, Ken Bensinger and Alexandra Berzon
“Mike Lindell, a prominent promoter of 2020 election misinformation, was served with a search warrant, and his cellphone was seized, by F.B.I. agents who questioned him about his ties to a Colorado county clerk who is accused of tampering with voting machines, Mr. Lindell said.
Tina Peters, the county clerk in Mesa County, Colo., is under indictment on state charges related to a scheme to download data from election equipment after the 2020 presidential contest. Ms. Peters has pleaded not guilty to the charges.
The search is a sign that a federal investigation into Ms. Peters has reached a prominent figure in the national movement to investigate and overturn the 2020 election. Mr. Lindell, the chief executive and founder of MyPillow, is a major promoter of debunked theories that keep alive the false notion that the election was stolen from former President Donald J. Trump.
The Mesa County episode is one of several instances in which local officials and activists motivated by those theories have gained access to voting machines in hopes of proving the theories true. Prosecutors in Michigan and Georgia are also investigating whether data was improperly copied from machines.” Read more at New York Times
Former Trump aide Karoline Leavitt, 25, proclaims victory in the Republican primary in New Hampshire's 1st District.
“The 2022 primary season came to a close on Tuesday, with New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Delaware holding a slate of key elections that could play a major role in helping decide which party controls the House and Senate. A great deal of attention is on New Hampshire, where Republicans are selecting their nominee to take on Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in what could be one of the most competitive Senate races. Hassan won by just 1,000 votes in 2016, and Republicans have seen New Hampshire as a potential pick-up opportunity in their bid for control of a Senate that's currently split 50-50. Also in New Hampshire, CNN projects Karoline Leavitt, a 25-year-old ex-Trump aide, will win the GOP primary in the 1st Congressional District and face Democrat Chris Pappas in November.” Read more at CNN
“Food prices in the US are far higher than they were a year ago, according to new data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall, grocery prices jumped 13.5% and restaurant menu prices increased by 8%. Egg prices soared 39.8%, while flour got 23.3% more expensive. Milk rose 17% and the price of bread jumped 16.2%. Meat, poultry, fruits and vegetables also grew costlier. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1% from July, according to the Consumer Price Index, which measures a basket of consumer goods and services. The reading came as a surprise to investors and sent US stocks plummeting Tuesday in their worst day since June 2020.” Read more at CNN
Iowa teen who killed rapist sentenced, ordered to pay $150K
By MARGERY A. BECK
“A teenage human trafficking victim who was initially charged with first-degree murder after she stabbed her accused rapist to death was sentenced Tuesday in an Iowa court to five years of closely supervised probation and ordered to pay $150,000 restitution to the man’s family.
Pieper Lewis, 17, was sentenced Tuesday after she pleaded last year to involuntary manslaughter and willful injury in the June 2020 killing of 37-year-old Zachary Brooks of Des Moines. Both charges were punishable by up to 10 years in prison.
Polk County District judge David M. Porter on Tuesday deferred those prison sentences, meaning that if Lewis violates any portion of her probation, she could be sent to prison to serve that 20-year term.
As for being required to pay the estate of her rapist, ‘this court is presented with no other option,’ Porter said, noting the restitution is mandatory under Iowa law that has been upheld by the Iowa Supreme Court.” Read more at AP News
Ukrainian troops keep up pressure on fleeing Russian forces
By ELENA BECATOROS and HANNA ARHIROV
“KHARKIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian troops piled pressure on retreating Russian forces Tuesday, pressing deeper into occupied territory and sending more Kremlin troops fleeing ahead of the counteroffensive that has inflicted a stunning blow on Moscow’s military prestige.
As the advance continued, Ukraine’s border guard services said the army took control of Vovchansk — a town just 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Russia seized on the first day of the war. Russia has acknowledged that it recently withdrew troops from areas in the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
Russian troops were also pulling out from Melitopol, the second largest city in Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region, the city’s pre-occupation mayor said. His claim could not immediately be verified.
Melitopol has been occupied since early March. Capturing it would give Kyiv an opportunity to disrupt Russian supply lines between the south and the eastern Donbas region, the two major areas where Moscow-backed forces hold territory.” Read more at AP News
Crowds gather in London to see queen’s coffin procession
By MIKE CORDER and DANICA KIRKA
“LONDON (AP) — Queen Elizabeth II’s coffin will leave Buckingham Palace for the last time Wednesday as it is taken amid somber pageantry on a horse-drawn gun carriage past crowds of mourners to the Houses of Parliament, where the late monarch will lie in state for four days.
Crowds began massing early along the flag-lined road outside the palace for the procession from the monarch’s official London residence to the historic Westminster Hall at Parliament. King Charles III and other members of the royal family will walk behind the coffin.
Thousands of people are gathering on The Mall outside Buckingham Palace and along the banks of the River Thames hours before the coffin procession begins. People in the crowd cheered when Charles waved to them as he drove from his residence, Clarence House, to the palace.
The crowds are the latest manifestation of a nationwide outpouring of grief and respect for the only monarch most Britons have ever known, who died at her beloved Balmoral summer retreat on Thursday at age 96, ending a 70-year reign.” Read more at AP News
China’s Xi visits Kazakhstan ahead of summit with Putin
FILE - China's President Xi Jinping greets the media prior to a meeting of leaders of the BRICS emerging economies at the Itamaraty palace in Brasilia, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2019. Xi has landed Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022, started his first foreign trip abroad since the outbreak of the pandemic ahead of a summit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and other leaders of a Central Asian security group. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, Pool, File)
“NUR-SULTAN, Kazakhstan (AP) — Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday started his first trip abroad since the outbreak of the pandemic with a stop in Kazakhstan ahead of a summit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and other leaders of a Central Asian security group.
Xi’s trip underlines the importance Beijing places on ties with Russia and Central Asia as the ruling Communist Party promotes its strategic ambitions amid tension with Washington, Japan and India.
Wearing a blue suit, Xi was met on the airport tarmac by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and an honor guard, all of whom wore masks.
Tokayev’s government said the two leaders would discuss energy markets and global economic turmoil. Kazakhstan, a sparsely populated country of 19.4 million people and sprawling grasslands, is a major oil and gas producer. China is a leading customer.
On Thursday, Xi is due to fly to Samarkand in neighboring Uzbekistan for a summit of the eight-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia.” Read more at AP News
“Fighting continues | Azerbajian and Armenia reported fresh border clashes today despite appeals from the US and France for them to respect a Russia-brokered cease-fire. Fighting between the Caucasus nations yesterday killed 99 soldiers, the worst death toll since a 2020 war. France said it would raise the crisis at the United Nations Security Council and Armenia appealed to a Russia-led defense bloc for help.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to boost monthly stipends to about 18 million poor families is failing to improve his re-election chances. While he trails his main rival, former leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, by at least 11 percentage points nationally in the latest polls, those who receive the cash handouts are more than twice as likely to vote for his leftist challenger, an Ipec survey showed.” Read more at Bloomberg
Residents line up to receive government aid in Juazeiro do Norte, Ceara state, on Feb. 14. Photographer: Jonne Roriz/Bloomberg
“State of the EU. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered the annual State of the European Union address to the European Parliament today. She discussed the commission’s plan to reduce surging energy prices fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Draft measures include a rollback on revenue generated by non-gas power plants, a windfall profit tax, and mandatory targets for reducing electricity consumption.
In Foreign Policy, Noah Gordon argues that Europe needs aggressive state action to solve its energy crisis—and reach emissions targets.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Hungary’s heartbeat law. A new decree by Hungary’s far-right government will require people seeking an abortion to listen to the ‘fetal heartbeat’ during an ultrasound before they can terminate the pregnancy. The regulation, which marks the first time Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government has touched abortion laws, reflects language used by some U.S. states. (Medical experts widely agree that the sound heard during an ultrasound in early pregnancy is electrical activity, not a heartbeat.)
Hungary’s current laws allow for abortions up to 12 weeks of pregnancy and at any point in a pregnancy that is deemed nonviable. The decree is due to come into effect on Thursday.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“A court in Thailand has ordered that national officials begin rehabilitating Maya Bay—made famous by the 2000 film The Beachstarring Leonardo DiCaprio—more than 20 years after local authorities filed a civil lawsuit against Thai government agencies, 20th Century Fox, and a Thai coordinator over damages caused by the production. Locals said the shoot left a major impact on the vegetation and sand dunes of the bay, located on the island of Ko Phi Phi Le. (The filmmakers denied they did any damage.)
The Beach brought mass tourism to Maya Bay, which was closed between 2018 and the start of this year to recover. Visitor numbers are now capped.” Read more at Foreign Policy
September 14, 2022
Good morning. Child poverty in the U.S. has fallen by more than half since the early 1990s.
The Tallman family in Marlinton, W.Va.Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
An unequaled decline
“When President Bill Clinton signed a bipartisan bill tightening the rules around welfare eligibility in 1996 — and making many benefits conditional on work — critics on the political left predicted terrible effects.
A few members of the Clinton administration quit in protest. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan warned of devastating increases in child poverty. The New Republic proclaimed, ‘Wages will go down, families will fracture and millions of children will be made more miserable than ever.’
A quarter-century later, these predictions look very wrong. As my colleague Jason DeParle wrote this week:
A comprehensive new analysis shows that child poverty has fallen 59 percent since 1993, with need receding on nearly every front. Child poverty has fallen in every state, and it has fallen by about the same degree among children who are white, Black, Hispanic and Asian, living with one parent or two, and in native or immigrant households.
Sources: Child Trends; U.S. Census Bureau; Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University
How did this happen? The 1996 welfare law turned out to be a case study of different political ideologies combining to produce a result that was better than either side would likely have produced on its own.
Some conservative critiques of the old welfare contained an important insight, Jason told me. Poor single mothers (the main beneficiaries of welfare) were better able to find and hold jobs than many liberals expected. Over the past few decades, increased employment among single mothers has been one reason for the decline in child poverty, according to the study, which was done by Child Trends, a research group.
But the biggest cause was an expansion of government aid. And progressives were the main force behind this expansion. With welfare less generous, Democrats (sometimes in alliance with Republicans) pushed for policies to help low-income workers, such as expansions of the earned-income tax credit and food stamps. Increases in state-level minimum wages also played a role.
Stacy Tallman in West Virginia.Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
‘I don’t know where I’d be right now if I didn’t have that help,’ said Stacy Tallman, a mother of three and a waitress in Marlinton, W.Va., referring to Medicaid, tax credits and food stamps.
After welfare reform, the focus of the government’s anti-poverty efforts shifted from people who weren’t working to people who were — and, thanks partly to the generosity of the new programs, child poverty plummeted. The size of the decline, Dana Thomson, a co-author of the study, said, ‘is unequaled in the history of poverty measurement.’
Dolores Acevedo-Garcia of Brandeis University pointed out that 12 million additional children would be poor today if the poverty rate were still as high as it was in the 1990s. The reasons to cheer this development are both immediate and longer term: Children who spend even modest amounts of time in poverty earn less money and are less healthy as adults on average, research has shown.
Hiding in plain sight
I am guessing that many readers are surprised to hear about the big drop in child poverty since the 1990s. I’ll confess that I was — and I have been covering economics for much of the past two decades. As Jason told me, ‘It is odd that such a big decline in child poverty has gone almost completely unnoticed.’
In part, the lack of attention stems from a theme I’ve mentioned before in this newsletter: bad-news bias. Journalists and academic experts are often more comfortable reporting negative developments than positive ones. We worry that we come off as blasé or Pollyannaish when we report good news.
The poverty statistics add to the confusion because there are so many different versions. The measure that the Census Bureau calls ‘official’ does not include government aid, which is bizarre, as Dylan Matthews of Vox has noted. And every measure has limitations. The one that Jason used in his story overestimates the impact of the earned-income tax credit and underestimates the impact of the food stamps, for technical reasons. (Neither alters the basic conclusion, as Robert Greenstein, a longtime progressive policy adviser, says.)
Still, I understand why many people are reluctant to focus on the poverty decline. The U.S. has not solved poverty. More than 20 million Americans are poor today, and many others above the poverty line also struggle to afford a decent life. As successful as President Biden has been in passing many parts of his agenda, Congress failed to pass several of his anti-poverty proposals. Those measures would have expanded access to child care and increased the child tax credit, among other things.
Despite these caveats, the decline in poverty deserves to be a major news story. For one thing, it’s legitimately surprising: Even Jason — who has spent more time writing about American poverty than almost any other journalist — acknowledges that welfare reform did less damage than he expected, in part because of the subsequent expansions of aid.
At a time of deep cynicism about government, the drop in poverty is an example of Washington succeeding at something big. ‘The decline in child poverty is very, very impressive,’ Greenstein said, ‘and it is overwhelmingly due to the increased effectiveness of government programs.’” Read more at New York Times
For more
“The Census Bureau reported yesterday that its more accurate measure of poverty — including government aid — fell to 7.8 percent last year, from 9.2 percent. But that decline was partly the result of anti-poverty programs that Congress has not renewed.” Read more at New York Times
NBA suspends Suns owner Sarver over workplace misconduct
“Robert Sarver, owner of the Phoenix Suns and Mercury basketball teams, has been suspended for one year after an independent investigation found he engaged in workplace misconduct, the NBA announced Tuesday.
Driving the news: The investigation found Server ‘repeated the N-word when recounting the statements of others’ and engaged in ‘inequitable conduct toward female employees,’ among other offenses, the league said.
The investigation found Sarver also ‘made many sex-related comments in the workplace’ and ‘inappropriate comments on the physical appearance of female employees and other women,’ per the NBA.
Sarver also ‘engaged in inappropriate physical conduct toward male employees’ on several occasions, the league said.
He also yelled and cursed at employees, the league added.
Worth noting: ‘The investigation made no finding that Mr. Sarver’s workplace misconduct was motivated by racial or gender-based animus,’ the NBA said.
What they're saying: Sarver issued a statement Tuesday afternoon about the investigation, saying he ‘accept[s] the consequences of the NBA’s decision.’” Read more at Axios
Ken Starr, Independent Counsel in Clinton Investigation, Dies at 76
Mr. Starr’s family said he died of complications from surgery.
By Peter Baker
“WASHINGTON — Ken Starr, the independent counsel whose investigation uncovered President Bill Clinton’s affair with a White House intern and led to his impeachment for lying under oath and obstructing justice, died on Tuesday at a hospital in Texas. He was 76.
Mr. Starr’s family said in a statement that he died of complications from surgery at Baylor St. Luke’s Medical Center in Houston but gave no further details.” Read more at New York Times
“Lives Lived: The photographer William Klein built his reputation on dreamlike images of city life, faces in crowds blurred by motion or as if glimpsed in a trance. He died at 96.” Read more at New York Times
At 50, TV’s ‘The Waltons’ still stirs fans’ love, nostalgia
By BOBBY ROSS Jr.
“The Rev. Matt Curry’s parents were children of the Great Depression, just like ‘The Waltons’ — the beloved TV family whose prime-time series premiered 50 years ago.
When Curry was growing up on a farm in northern Texas, his carpenter father and teacher mother often argued playfully over who had a poorer childhood.
‘The Depression was the seminal time of their lives — the time that was about family and survival and making it through,’ said Curry, now a 59-year-old Presbyterian pastor in Owensboro, Kentucky. ‘My dad used to talk about how his dad would go work out of town and send $5 a week to feed and clothe the family.’
So when ‘The Waltons,’ set in 1932 and running through World War II, debuted on CBS on Sept. 14, 1972, the Currys identified closely with the storylines. Millions of others felt the same, and the Thursday night drama about a Depression-era family in rural Virginia became one of TV’s most popular and enduring programs.” Read more at AP News