The Full Belmonte, 9/12/2023
McCarthy backs launching formal impeachment inquiry into Biden
“House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced Tuesday that he endorsed launching a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.
McCarthy was also expected to make a forceful pitch at a Thursday special conference meeting on investigations among House Republicans that opening an impeachment inquiry into Biden is the next logical step, sources familiar tell CNN.
The development comes as the California Republican has been signaling all recess, as CNN has previously reported, that he’s moving closer to moving forward with such an investigation, related to the president’s son Hunter’s business dealings.” [CNN]
Thousands of people have been killed in Libya in the devastating flooding caused by heavy rains this weekend, aid agencies confirmed.
A view of the devastation wrought by floods caused by Storm Daniel, in Derna, Libya, on Sept. 11, 2023.
Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Ten thousand people were missing, an official said, in a disaster that was exacerbated by the collapse of two dams.
Read more at New York Times
Flood damage in Libya.Reuters
“Floods washed away neighborhoods in Libya, killing more than 300 people. More than 5,000 are missing.” [New York Times]
Morocco Earthquake
In Douar Tnirt, a village in the Atlas Mountains.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
“Four days after the earthquake, many people in mountain villages are still waiting for help. They are digging bodies out of rubble with their hands.” [New York Times]
Hurricane Lee is expected to grow in size after a crucial northward turn midweek.
Hurricane Lee
“Hurricane Lee, currently a Category 3 storm churning in the Atlantic, is expected to grow significantly as it makes its northward turn in the coming days. Meteorologists say its growth will soon help determine the extent of its impact on the US Northeast, Bermuda and Canada. Forecasts show Lee will pass near, but west, of Bermuda late Thursday and Friday, and could deliver strong winds, rain and high surf to the island territory. The storm is also on track to send big waves to a growing area of the East Coast throughout the week as it tracks northward. This will likely cause coastal erosion, dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents at beaches.” [CNN]
Poverty among children more than doubled in the United States last year, as living costs rose and many federal pandemic aid programs ended.
“The overall poverty rate rose to 12.4 percent in 2022 from 7.8 percent in 2021, the largest one-year jump on record.”
Read more at Washington Post
The FDA approved a new coronavirus vaccine.
“What to know: The reformulated shots, approved yesterday, target an omicron subvariant ahead of fall’s respiratory virus season. Cases and hospitalizations have already been rising.
Who can get it: That’s not settled yet. The FDA cleared it for anyone 6 months and older. But the CDC, whose advisory panel meets today, may recommend a more targeted approach.
Will it be free? Yes, for most Americans with private insurance, Medicaid or Medicare. With CDC approval, it should be available later this week.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Politics
“The House returns today after weeks in recess. Republicans’ disagreements over spending could shut down the government this month.” [New York Times]
“Trump’s lawyers asked the judge in his federal trial on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election to recuse herself, accusing her of bias.” [New York Times]
“Biden is planning an expensive ad campaign to reassure voters about his age.” [New York Times]
“The president stopped at an Alaska military base on his way back from Vietnam to mark the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.” [New York Times]
The Justice Department’s antitrust trial against Google begins today.
What to know: The case will determine whether Google illegally used its popular search engine to throttle competitors in search and advertising.
Why it matters: It’s the first such case against a major tech company in more than 20 years and could affect the tech landscape — and Google’s reach — for the next decade and beyond.
Read this story at Washington Post
Escaped prisoner Danelo Cavalcante now armed with stolen gun
Pennsylvania fugitive Danelo Cavalcante stole a rifle from the garage of a Chester County resident, authorities warned early Tuesday.
READ FULL STORY→ at USA Today
“A Pennsylvania homeowner fired seven shots at Danelo Cavalcante after the escaped killer broke into his home and stole a .22-caliber rifle, FOX29 reported. It was the latest dramatic incident in the 12 days since the 34-year-old Brazilian scaled the walls of Chester County prison—where he was serving life without parole for the murder of his ex-girlfriend—and went on the run. On Tuesday, the search area focused on North Coventry Township, where schools were closed for the day and residents warned in a ‘reverse 911’ call to stay indoors. ‘He is armed. Residents in the area are asked to lock all doors and windows, secure vehicles, and remain indoors. Do not approach. Call 911 if seen,’ Pennsylvania State Police said. Meanwhile, police have pushed back against suggestions that their blunders have allowed Cavalcante to get through their net and say they should hold the advantage now that the fugitive is in a more rural area, the Associated Press reported.” [Daily Beast]
Read it at FOX29
The U.S. advanced a prisoner swap deal with Iran.
What to know: The Biden administration issued a waiver for banks to transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil funds without fear of U.S. sanctions. Congress was notified of the move yesterday.
Why? It’s a step in securing the release of five American citizensdetained in Iran as early as next week. Five Iranian citizens detained in the U.S. would also be released.
Read this story at Washington Post
Kim Jong Un
•This would be Kim's first overseas trip in more than four years and he traveled in a luxury armored train, bulletproof but notoriously slow possibly because of its weight. •The Kim-Putin summit is just one of several indications that the Russian president may be getting nervous − even desperate − as Moscow's war grinds on into its 18th month.•Meanwhile, the clock is running out for Ukraine's counteroffensive. Ukraine has about 45 days before weather hinders efforts crucial to Kyiv's long-term goal of driving the invading Russians out of all occupied territory, a top U.S general says.
This picture taken on September 10, 2023 and released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 12, 2023 shows North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (C) waving as he departs by train from Pyongyang for a visit to Russia.
STR, KCNA VIA KNS/AFP via Getty Image
“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has arrived in Russia ahead of an expected meeting with President Vladimir Putin, as the US urged Pyongyang not to provide weapons for Moscow's war in Ukraine. Kim's visit comes after the National Security Council warned last week that arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea are ‘actively advancing.’ The US and its allies are particularly concerned about the technology North Korea is seeking from Russia in return for weaponry. North Korea is seeking technology that could advance its satellite and nuclear-powered submarine capabilities, officials said, which could significantly advance its capabilities in areas that the rogue regime has not fully developed.” [CNN]
What’s behind Africa’s recent coups
Desirey Minkoh/Afrikimages Agency/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
“A recent military coup in the Central African country of Gabon is the latest in a series of armed government takeovers across the continent. While there have been a lot of coups in Africa lately, they’re not all related, and they’re not all the same. But they are part of a more global turn away from democracy.
The lowdown: Gabon’s August coup came just after a July rebellion in Niger, and 2022 revolts in Burkina Faso and Mali.
Gabon’s revolution doesn’t fit the pattern. Unlike in other African countries where coups occurred, Gabon has no serious security threats, and rather than overthrowing the previously corrupt system, Gabon’s coup leaders merely took it over.
Gabon’s coup is actually more similar to a 2017 takeover in Zimbabwe. In both cases, instituting true democratic reforms and holding free and fair elections would harm the interests of the ruling parties.
Coups can happen anywhere. While many antidemocratic movements are concentrated across Africa and Latin America, almost anywhere (even a place with supposedly strong democratic institutions) can experience a coup attempt. Just think about the US on January 6, 2021.
The stakes: Coups tend to build on themselves, and the wave of coups across Africa this year and last was actually a sign that more could come. Any attempt to overthrow a government, even if unsuccessful, shows that it is possible to try.” [Vox]
After months of protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to curb the power of the judiciary, Israel’s focus switched today to the elegant semi-circular bench of the Supreme Court where, on live TV, 15 justices debated whether to overturn the first step.
The law, which bars the judges from voiding executive decisions that they deem “unreasonable,” is one in a series of populist judicial changes promised by Netanyahu’s religious, right-wing coalition when it came to office in late December.
Opposed by secular Israelis who argue that it will weaken a fragile system of checks and balances, the plan has driven hundreds of thousands of protesters onto the streets for more than eight months, caused friction with US President Joe Biden’s administration and battered markets and the shekel.
It’s a remarkable battle over the future of a country that, over the past quarter century, has become a wealthy investor darling and high-tech haven while at the same time growing more nationalistic and Orthodox Jewish in its politics.
Beneath the debate in the Jerusalem courtroom lie questions about the nature of a state that defines itself as a Jewish democracy while its military rules over Palestinians in the West Bank.
The court’s ruling, not expected for weeks, could cause a crisis if the government declines to accept it.
It’s just one of several challenges facing Netanyahu as he seeks to satisfy his base while expanding Israel’s might through possible normalization with Saudi Arabia. Israel is also participating in a rail-and-maritime corridor from Asia to Europe that was announced at the Group of 20 summit in India.
A deal whereby Saudi Arabia gains US security guarantees in exchange for relations with Israel is under negotiation. The Palestinian leadership is seeking concessions from Israel and Saudi Arabia to preserve some chance of achieving an independent state.
Netanyahu is headed to the US Sunday to meet Silicon Valley executives and Biden and address the United Nations. He has made clear he wants to compromise on the judicial changes and pursue his geopolitical goals. The opposition remains skeptical.”— Ethan Bronner [Bloomberg]
Israeli security forces use a water cannon to disperse demonstrators blocking the entrance of parliament on July 24. Photographer: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi embraces Comoros President Azali Assoumani, who is also the chairman of the African Union, ahead of the G-20 summit on Sept. 9 in New Delhi. Evan Vucci/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
“For a second year running, world leaders gathered for a G-20 summit but refrained from posing for the traditional family photo. It turns out several Western leaders didn’t want to be seen with a Russian official—even if that person was Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and not President Vladimir Putin, who didn’t travel to New Delhi. Nor did Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a sign of growing tensions between China and India.
That’s not stopping New Delhi from spinning the weekend convening as a success. Contrary to expectations, the summit produced a joint statement. But it contained only a glancing mention of the war in Ukraine, with no reference to Russia’s aggression. Predictably, Moscow sees that as a diplomatic win; Kyiv is upset.
It makes sense that the world’s divisions would show up in a big global summit. There were, however, some important advances. The G-20 agreed to induct the 55-member African Union, dramatically expanding the group’s remit and dragging its center of gravity toward the global south. Perhaps as a result, one legacy from the weekend’s summit could be the start of moves to reform multilateral banks such as the World Bank, and the provision of more equitable loans to countries facing sovereign debt crises.” [Foreign Policy]
”China is spreading disinformation about the Maui wildfires using artificial intelligence, claiming the U.S. government started the fires.” [New York Times]
“In Turkey, rescuers saved an American cave expert who fell sick thousands of feet underground.” [New York Times]
“Tourist fees: The Italian city of Venice is expected to approve the trial of a €5 ($5.37; £4.29) daily fee for visitors during peak holiday periods, in a bid to control the tourism Unesco says is threatening the world heritage site. Giovanna Girardi hears the reaction from visitors and locals.” [BBC]
“Senator Elizabeth Warren wants the US Congress to investigate Elon Musk’s SpaceX after he acknowledged blocking Ukraine from extending the private Starlink satellite network for an attack on Russian warships near the Crimean coast. Musk posted on X, his social media network formerly known as Twitter, that had he agreed to the request, he would have been ‘explicitly complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation.’” [Bloomberg]
A Starlink antenna covered with a camouflage net in the Donetsk region. Photographer: Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto/Getty Images
September 12, 2023
Good morning. We’re covering the Republican Party’s shrinking advantage in the Electoral College.
The Georgia State Capitol.Nicole Craine for The New York Times
All politics is national
“The Electoral College has been very kind to Republicans in the 21st century. George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 despite losing the popular vote, and Donald Trump did the same in 2016.
But over the past few years the Republican advantage in the Electoral College seems to have shrunk, as Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, points out in his newsletter. Republicans are no longer faring significantly better in the states likely to decide the presidential election — like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — than they are nationwide. Instead, a 2024 race between Biden and Trump looks extremely close, with a tiny lead for Biden both nationally and in the swing states.
2023 indicators are based on a New York Times analysis of midterm results, demographics and polling.
What’s going on here? Democrats have lost some ground in comfortably blue states like New York while gaining some in swing states like Pennsylvania. ‘At this point,’ Nate writes, ‘another large Trump Electoral College advantage cannot be assumed.’
In today’s newsletter, we’ll examine the main reasons for the trends.
An unexpected shift
One surprising feature of American politics since Trump’s 2016 victory has been the decline in some forms of polarization. Many political analysts (including me) assumed that Trump’s presidency would aggravate racial gaps in voting, given Trump’s embrace of white nationalism. We were wrong. Instead, the racial gaps have narrowed.
White voters have moved toward the Democratic Party, while Asian, Black and Hispanic voters have moved to the right. Voters of color still lean clearly Democratic, and white voters clearly Republican, but the shifts are big enough to matter. White voters have helped Democrats win recent elections in the Midwest and Georgia, while voters of color have helped Republicans keep their hold on Florida and Texas.
Nobody has come up with a comprehensive explanation, but there are some plausible theories. In much of the world, left-leaning parties are increasingly attractive to college graduates. The U.S. — where the Republican Party denies climate change and spreads conspiracy theories — is a good example. And college graduates are disproportionately white.
On the flip side, polls suggest that some voters of color have been influenced by economic trends. After years of weak performance, the economy fared better while Trump was president. (How much credit he deserves is another matter.) Covid interrupted that boom, but some voters evidently appreciated the Republican emphasis on reopening the economy. In an analysis of the Republicans’ unexpectedly strong 2020 showing in Texas, Equis Research, a research firm that focuses on Latinos, cited voters’ frustration with lockdowns.
Social issues probably play a role, too. Many voters of color are moderate on these issues. The most progressive segment of the American public, by contrast, is disproportionately white, the Pew Research Center has documented. As the progressive left has become bolder — on gender, immigration, policing and other subjects — it has alienated some of the voters of color for whom it claims to speak.
Whatever the full explanation, the decline in racial polarization has diminished the Republicans’ advantage in the Electoral College. That advantage has existed partly because swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are heavily white, Nate notes.
Blue states, less blue
In addition to race, polarization has declined in another way: Some blue states have become a little less blue, while some once-reddish swing states have turned blueish.
In both types of places, Nate suggests, voters are unhappy with what they consider the excesses of their own party. In swing states, the Republican Party has damaged itself by trying to ban abortion and spreading lies about the 2020 election.
In solidly blue states, however, an overturned election or abortion ban is implausible. Instead, some voters have apparently grown dissatisfied with Democratic politicians who have been in charge while other problems have mounted. Crime remains elevated. Cities are struggling to handle a surge of migrants. Education issues, including new admission policies for magnet high schools, have hurt the party in some places.
‘Moderate voters in a blue state — say around Portland, Ore. — have no need to fear whether their state’s conservatives will enact new restrictions on transgender rights or abortion rights, but they might wonder whether the left has gone too far pursuing equity in public schools,’ Nate writes. ‘They might increasingly harbor doubts about progressive attitudes on drugs, the homeless and crime, as visible drug use among the homeless in Portland becomes national news.’
If one voter in solidly blue Oregon flips to the Republicans and another voter in swing-state Arizona moves to the Democrats, the Republicans’ Electoral College edge shrinks.
Nate emphasizes that these trends are not guaranteed to continue. Perhaps the Republicans’ edge will re-emerge by 2024. Or perhaps the election will be so close that even a tiny Republican edge will decide the outcome. For now, though, a key feature of recent American politics has receded.” [New York Times]
“J.M. Smucker, the jelly maker, is buying the snack cake brand Hostessfor more than $5 billion.” [New York Times]
America's new super-region
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“Northwest Arkansas (NWA) — including Bentonville, Fayetteville, Rogers and Springdale— is the 15th-fastest-growing area in the U.S. and is on pace to hit nearly 1 million residents by 2045.
That's more than double today's size, and close to the population of Austin, writes Worth Sparkman of Axios Northwest Arkansas.
Why it matters: Bentonville — in the rustic Ozarks, and headquarters of Walmart — boasts a world-class art museum, a flight school and a culinary center, and is getting a Cleveland Clinic and a med school.
It's a test market for drones and driverless trucks, is home to burgeoning advanced mobility and holistic health industries, and is a booming entrepreneurship hub.
The Wall Street Journal crowned Bentonville a "New Capital of Cool" — "a surprising hotspot for delicious food and innovative art."
What's happening: Bentonville's growth has been driven by the Walmart magnet — and by intensive involvement and investment by Walton family members, who live there and are focusing their money and power to conjure America's next great metropolis. (More on Steuart and Tom Walton.)
In the early 2000s, Walmart suppliers — including Procter & Gamble, Ghirardelli and PepsiCo — began locating teams near their largest customer. The area was dubbed ‘Vendorville.’
The Walton Family Foundation, based in Bentonville, is an unofficial incubator-accelerator that has poured billions into this grand experiment.
The bottom line: Bentonville, the ‘mountain bike capital of the world,’ aims to rival Silicon Valley with its intersection of innovative commerce and enviable quality of life.
A rendering of Walmart's new campus. Image: Walmart
Walmart, the world's largest company by revenue, is building a new 350-acre campus-of-the-future for 15,000 employees.
Why it matters: Walmart hopes a modern, amenity-laden workplace will help attract and retain top talent, Cindi Marsiglio, SVP for corporate real estate, tells Alex Golden of Axios Northwest Arkansas.
Between the lines: The overarching idea is to simplify living and working by boosting walkability and bikeability, with easier access to food, exercise, fresh air and child care.
The new campus will include several office buildings and parking decks, plus a hotel, child-care center, fitness center and outdoor spaces.
The campus, including stores and restaurants, will be open to the public. (See an interactive map.)
What's next: The child-care center, fitness center and hotel open next year. Employees will relocate to their new offices in 2025.” [Axios]
Drew Barrymore is bringing back her talk show amid the Hollywood strikes.
“What to know: The actress restarted her daytime talk show yesterday, drawing intense criticism and picketing outside the show’s taping in New York City.
Why people are upset: The show’s writers have been on strike since May with the Writers Guild of America, which remains locked in negotiations with studios.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Aaron Rodgers’s season is done after the 39-year-old N.F.L. star tore an Achilles’ tendon in his first game with the Jets.
Aaron Rodgers exited the game after being sacked by Leonard Floyd.Seth Wenig/Associated Press
“An M.R.I. confirmed the team’s worst fears after the four-time league M.V.P. was carted to the locker room after an injury in the opening minutes of his first regular season game.”
Read more at New York Times
“Michigan State: After a sexual harrassment allegation, head coach Mel Tucker defended his intimate conversation, calling it mutual.” [New York Times]
“Rest rule: The N.B.A. is considering stricter rules for teams that sit star players in prime-time matchups.” [New York Times]
”Lives Lived: Ian Wilmut led the team that cloned Dolly the sheep in the 1990s, a feat that shocked the world. Wilmut died at 79.” [New York Times]