The Full Belmonte, 8/1/2023
Existential threats soar
Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
“Put aside your politics and look at the world clinically, and you'll see the three areas many experts consider existential threats to humanity worsening in 2023.
This isn't meant to start your day with doom and gloom. But focus your mind on how the threats of nuclear catastrophe, rising temperatures and all-powerful AI capabilities are spiking worldwide, Axios' Andrew Freedman, Ryan Heath and Sam Baker report.
Why it matters: This underscores the urgent need for smart people running government — and big companies — to solve increasingly complex problems at faster rates.
Climate: The danger is becoming impossible to ignore.
You just lived through the hottest month ever recorded on Earth. The world's oceans are absurdly warm, with "hot tub"-level temperatures around the Florida Keys bleaching and even killing coral reefs in just one week.
Antarctic sea ice is plummeting even in the dead of winter. Wildfires are raging.
The worst part: We can't even call this our "new normal" — it's going to keep getting worse.
AI: The technology's top architects say there's a non-zero chance it'll destroy humanity — and they don't really know how or why it works.
AI — which can mass-produce fake videos, soundbites and images — also threatens Americans' already tenuous trust in elections and institutions.
Nukes: China expanded its nuclear arsenal on land, air and sea — raising the likelihood of a dangerous new world of three, not two, nuclear superpowers.
‘Beijing, Moscow and Washington will likely be atomic peers,’ the N.Y. Times reports. ‘This new reality is prompting a broad rethinking of American nuclear strategy that few anticipated a dozen years ago.’
The bottom line: Humanity has a decent track record of pulling back from the brink. No one has used a nuclear weapon since World War II. A more effective global climate agreement is still possible. Rules can govern AI.
But what if?” [Axios]
“NEW NYT/SIENA POLL — President JOE BIDEN and DONALD TRUMP are tied at 43 percent apiece in a new national poll published this morning
‘President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid,’ NYT’s Reid J. Epstein, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Bake write. ‘Still, warning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr. Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.’
President Biden and Donald Trump.Desiree Rios for The New York Times; Saul Martinez for The New York Times
TRUMP’S MONEY WOES — We knew Trump was a money-raising machine. What we didn’t realize until last night’s Q2 PACs-and-parties filing deadline? That he’s been an even bigger money-spending machine — raising questions about whether his financial woes have spilled out of the hotel business and into the political arena.
Trump-affiliated committees have spent more than they’ve raisedso far this year, filings indicate — a staggering burn rate given that Trump’s joint fundraising committee reported raising $53.8 million in the first half of the year. But as our colleagues Jessica Piper and Zach Montellaro report this morning, ‘his committee and its two affiliates — the former president’s official campaign and his leadership Save America PAC — have collectively spent $57 million over the same period.’
Another super PAC supporting Trump, Make America Great Again Inc., raised $14.6 million over half of the year but spent $25.6 million.
That foreshadows a long-term issue that could bedevil Trump as the election cycle plays out. Sure, he might well be able to stampede his way through the primary, given that he’s leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the pack. But a general election is going to need every penny in a rematch with President Joe Biden.
SO WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING? You probably guessed: Much is heading to cover legal bills. The NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Shane Goldmacher and Jonathan Swan put it fairly bluntly in this buzzy headline that popped overnight: “After Paying Lawyers, Trump’s PAC Is Nearly Broke.”
The lead is just as eye-popping: ‘Trump’s political action committee, which began last year with $105 million, now has less than $4 million left in its account after paying tens of millions of dollars in legal fees for Mr. Trump and his associates.’
Indeed, Trump’s main super PAC, Save America, was so strapped for cash that it requested to recoup $60 million it had previously donated to MAGA Inc. for TV ads supporting his White House bid, the story continues: “The extraordinary shift of money from the super PAC to Mr. Trump’s political committee … is believed to be larger than any other refund on record in the history of federal campaigns.”
California GOP consultant Rob Pyers flags an even more troubling trend for Trump: His greatest fundraising asset — the ongoing state and federal prosecutions targeting him — may be losing potency. Just look at this chart showing the differences between what the former president raised off of his first indictment over the STORMY DANIELS hush money scheme and the haul following the federal charges over his alleged mishandling of classified documents in June. The latter appears to be less than a third of the former.
MEANWHILE IN DeSANTIS WORLD: Filings for Never Back Down, the main RON DeSANTIS super PAC, highlight the extent to which a handful of wealthy donors is almost single-handedly fueling the Florida governor’s war chest.
As Piper and our colleague Sally Goldenberg report this morning, those includes Nevada hotel magnate ROBERT BIGELOW, real estate developer JAY ODOM, Sequoia Capital’s DOUGLAS LEONE, Standard Industries CEO DAVID MILLSTONE, and power couple ELIZABETH and RICHARD UIHLEIN.
All told, Never Back Down has almost $100 million on hand, a significant sum demonstrating that despite flagging poll numbers, DeSantis is well positioned to stay in the race for the long haul.
As for what that money is buying, WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Maeve Reston have an early look at NBD’s spending, which included has ‘building a staff of 121 people and a contract workforce of about 240 canvassers, who work out of 11 offices across the country.’ All told, NBD reports 85 percent of its spending is on “direct voter contact,” which included the canvassing as well as mail, digital and TV advertising.
The upshot? Between DeSantis’ cash-strapped campaign and his cash-rich super PAC, ‘his operation will largely be powered by what is in essence a shadow campaign that cannot legally coordinate with the candidate,’ as Jessica and Sally write.
BOBBY’S BIG BACKER: Elsewhere, the super PAC supporting ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. disclosed yesterday that a single Republican donor was responsible for half of the nearly $10 million it has raised, Jessica writes.
‘Of the $9.8 million reported, $5 million came from TIMOTHY MELLON, a longtime GOP donor who gave $1.5 million to a Trump-aligned group last fall, according to campaign finance records. In a press release earlier Monday, Mellon touted Kennedy’s bipartisan credentials, calling him ‘the one Democrat who can win in the general election.’” [POLITICO]
War in Ukraine
“Central Moscow — and one particular government building — suffered a second drone attack in two days.” [New York Times]
“Ukraine is launching a growing fleet of homegrown drones at targets inside Russia, a Times investigation found.” [New York Times]
“Vladimir Putin is using the war in Ukraine to justify a crackdown on L.G.B.T.Q. Russians.” [New York Times]
Politics
“Carlos De Oliveira, the Mar-a-Lago property manager charged in the Trump documents case, made his first court appearance. He was released on bond.” [New York Times]
Carlos De Oliveira (C), a property manager for former U.S. President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, leaves the James Lawrence King Federal Justice Building on July 31, 2023 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle, Getty Images
“A Georgia judge rejected Trump’s efforts to derail the state’s investigation into election interference.” [New York Times]
“A federal panel recommended limiting the F.B.I.’s use of a domestic surveillance program.” [New York Times]
Hunter repeatedly put dad on phone
Devon Archer arrives on Capitol Hill yesterday. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP
“In closed-door House testimony yesterday, Hunter Biden's former business partner didn't give Republicans the smoking gun they'd hoped would show President Biden and his family used government connections for profit.
But Devon Archer said Hunter put his dad on the phone with friends and business associates roughly 20 times over 10 years — new fodder for a simmering GOP push to impeach the president, Axios' Stef Kight and Alex Thompson report.
Archer testified that Hunter sold the ‘illusion of access’ by putting his father on speakerphone with Hunter's business partners — but that then-Vice President Biden never talked shop, according to Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) and a source familiar with the testimony.
But Archer, who was convicted of fraud in 2018, ‘repeated over and over and over again that President Biden never discussed any business dealings or interests with Hunter or anyone else,’ Goldman told reporters after the hours-long transcribed interview.” [Axios]
Climate
Cutting pieces of coral.Jason Gulley for The New York Times
“Teams are pulling Florida’s coral out of the ocean to rescue it from steamy temperatures.” [New York Times]
“In China, fierce rain and flooding killed at least 11 people and another cyclone is on the way. See videos of the damage.” [New York Times]
“Phoenix dipped below 110 degrees for the first time in a month. It was still 108.” [New York Times]
“The heat has been linked to the deaths of at least seven people in state and national parks.” [New York Times]
“The extreme weather in July surprised even climate scientists, The Washington Post reports.” [New York Times]
Confidence in military hits 26-year low
Data: Gallup. Chart: Axios Visuals
“The military remains one of America's most trusted institutions — but public confidence has fallen to the lowest point in a quarter century, Axios' April Rubin writes from new Gallup data.
Why it matters: The military retained high public trust even as most institutions — media, police, public schools, higher ed, the Supreme Court, organized religion — fell sharply.
60% of respondents expressed confidence in the military in the June poll — the lowest level since 1997, 26 years ago.
The military ranked second behind small business among the 17 institutions included in the poll — but far ahead of police (43%),the medical system (34%) and organized religion (32%).
Congress (8%), newspapers (18%) and TV news (14%) were in the cellar.
What's happening: Republicans have long had higher confidence in the military. But that declined from 91% in 2020 to 68% this year.
Confidence among Democrats (62%) increased when President Biden took office, but has decreased since.” [Axios]
Lori Vallow Daybell, whose children were murdered in 'evil' plot, sentenced to life
“An Idaho mother convicted of the gruesome killings of her two youngest children and her husband's former wife was sentenced Monday to life in prison without the possibility of parole, the maximum sentence possible. Lori Vallow Daybell was sentenced more than three years after the bodies of her son, Joshua "JJ" Vallow, 7, and daughter Tylee Ryan, 16, were discovered by authorities in her husband's backyard in rural eastern Idaho. The trial centered around the themes of ‘money, power and sex,’ prosecutors said.” Read more at USA Today
Lori Vallow Daybell found guilty in the murders of her two children
AP
Space Command
“President Biden has decided that the headquarters of US Space Command will remain in Colorado and not move to Alabama, reversing a decision by then-President Trump. US Space Command is currently housed in Colorado Springs, but the Air Force recommended near the end of Trump's presidency that it be moved to Huntsville, Alabama. According to a US official, several issues factored into Biden's decision, including ‘quality-of-life for servicemembers and families, including quality of schools and military housing.’ But the official added that ‘the most significant factor considered was impact to operational readiness to confront space-enabled threats during a critical time in this dynamic security environment.’ The move will likely anger Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, who continues to hold up more than 300 military nominations over the Pentagon’s abortion policy.” [CNN]
People offer funeral prayers to the victims who died in a bomb blast in Bajaur, Pakistan, on July 31.Abdul Majeed/AFP via Getty Images
“A suicide bomber killed at least 54 people and wounded nearly 200 others at a political rally on Sunday in Pakistan’s Bajaur district, which borders Afghanistan. The event was for Muslim cleric Fazlur Rehman of the hard-line Islamist Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party, which is both a member of the government’s ruling coalition and a longtime supporter of Afghanistan’s Taliban. Rehman was not in attendance, but local party leader Maulana Ziaullah was among those killed. The bombing’s death toll is expected to rise.
The Islamic State-Khorasan, a regional affiliate of the main Islamic State organization, has claimed responsibility for the assault. Although it may seem odd for an Islamist extremist group to target a hard-line Islamist party that shares similar religious and political ideologies, the reality is that the Islamic State-Khorasan is even more fanatical in its religious and political outlook than the Afghan Taliban and their allies. Indeed, the Islamic State-Khorasan has a history of ordering political assassinations of Afghan Taliban officials for not instilling what it considers to be a strict enough interpretation of Islamic ideals in Afghanistan. It has also targeted Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam for associating with the Afghan Taliban as well as the Pakistani government and for betraying the party’s Islamic principles.
This was not the first such attack in the region, either. In addition to the Islamic State-Khorasan, other militant groups, including the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP), are active in the area. Violence recently escalated after a cease-fire between the TTP and the Pakistani government broke down in November 2022. In January, 74 people were killed by a suicide bombing at a mosque in Peshawar. A similar incident occurred less than a month later, when 101 individuals were killed in another Peshawar mosque bombing inside a high-security compound.
The ‘recent surge in militancy is quite alarming, and especially attacks like these, where the Taliban are also condemning it and which are not coming from the Taliban but from other actors as well,’ said Nizam Salarzai, executive director of the Khorasan Diary, a local media outlet. ‘It means that the Pakistani state might have to fight on multiple fronts to control this.’” [Foreign Policy]
The World This Week
“Tuesday, Aug. 1: The United States assumes the presidency of the United Nations Security Council.
Wednesday, Aug. 2: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrain.
Wednesday, Aug. 2, to Sunday, Aug. 6: Pope Francis visits Portugal.
Thursday, Aug. 3: Israel’s Supreme Court hears petitions against the passage of a piece of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reform legislation.
A six-month cease-fire between the Colombian government and the paramilitary National Liberation Army begins.
Friday, Aug. 4: Thailand’s parliament holds a vote to choose its next prime minister.
A verdict is delivered in the case against Russian dissident Alexey Navalny for extremism.
Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi appeals a two-year sentence in a defamation case.
Sunday, Aug. 6: A one-week deadline for the restoration of constitutional order in Niger by the Economic Community of West African States expires.” [Foreign Policy]
“Referendum results. Citizens of the Central African Republic may be getting a new constitution. On Sunday, residents voted on a referendum that would extend a presidential term from five to seven years and remove the office’s two-year term limit—thereby allowing President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to run again in 2025. Results are expected by the end of the week, with a finalized decision to be implemented in late August.
Initial polling suggests the referendum is expected to pass—much to the chagrin of the opposition, which has accused Touadéra’s ruling party of influencing the vote in its favor. Opposition leaders have argued that Touadéra’s decision to make the new constitution’s draft available for public viewing only 20 days before the vote was set to occur did not give the electorate enough time to make an informed decision. Although almost 2 million people were eligible to vote, initial reports suggest the voter turnout rate was far lower.” [Foreign Policy]
“Legacy of corruption. The head of Lebanon’s central bank stepped down on Monday amid rampant corruption allegations and one of the nation’s worst financial crises in history. Riad Salameh, age 73, served at the country’s economic helm for 30 years. He came to power only three years after the nation’s 15-year civil war ended, at a time when international aid was flooding the country. Under his leadership, though, Lebanon’s currency lost 98 percent of its value, unemployment skyrocketed, and food prices increased by more than 600 percent.
Salameh is currently under investigation for embezzlement in numerous countries, having borrowed money to pay existing creditors. He continues to deny the allegations, which many economic experts have compared to a Ponzi scheme. Deputy Gov. Wassim Mansouri will take over as interim head of the bank until the country’s caretaker government can choose a permanent successor.” [Foreign Policy]
“In 1886, chemist Clemens Winkler identified a new element in an unusual mineral from a mine in Saxony and named it in honor of his recently constituted country.
Germanium is now a core part of semiconductors used in radio frequency applications such as radar, as well as for fiber optics, solar cells for space flight, and night-vision systems.
China accounted for 83% of world production last year, and as of today, exports of germanium and an associated element, gallium, are subject to export controls by Beijing.
The curbs on two minor metals that are nevertheless vital to specialized chip production are a result of the great power competition between the US and China that’s rippling around the world.
China announced the controls on national security grounds, the same justification US President Joe Biden’s administration has used for increasingly aggressive measures to deny Beijing access to advanced chip technology.
There may be more to come. US and European officials are now growing concerned about China’s push into older-generation semiconductors that still dominate the global economy, and are debating new strategies to contain that expansion, Jenny Leonard, Ian King and Alberto Nardelli report.
The effect of these tit-for-tat measures is to drive the world’s two biggest economies further apart: The US is already seeking alternative supplies of gallium. Japan said it’s considering recycling and diversifying its supply of germanium and gallium, which are primarily byproducts of zinc and aluminum production respectively.
In June, Swedish miner Boliden said operations at its Tara zinc mine in Ireland — Europe’s largest — were ceasing temporarily while it worked on ‘ensuring its competitiveness.’
For Europe, it seems, the gravity of the US-China standoff has yet to sink in.— Alan Crawford [Bloomberg]
Greek border police with night-vision goggles on the border with Turkey on Jan. 21. Photographer: Konstantinos Tsakalidis/Bloomberg
“President Xi Jinping replaced the two most senior leaders managing China’s nuclear arsenal amid reports of a sweeping corruption probe in the missile force that would play a key role in an invasion of Taiwan. The overhaul brings in new blood from the air force and navy, in a highly unusual step that suggests a desire for wholesale change in the unit’s upper echelons.” [Axios]
“France’s Africa strategy is in tatters following the coup in Niger, where President Mohamed Bazoum is being held hostage by his own security guards. With protesters in Niger criticizing France over its continued influence, President Emmanuel Macron’s government is struggling to convince nations in the Sahel region that the presence of a former colonial power is beneficial.
The military leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso warned that any intervention by force against Niger would amount to a declaration of war against the West African nations.” [Bloomberg]
Musk's rooftop logo banished
Workers dismantle the logo in San Francisco yesterday. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
“A giant, glowing X no longer marks the spot for the HQ of Elon Musk's X, formerly known as Twitter, on Market Street in San Francisco, Reuters reports.
The city building department logged 24 complaints after residents recorded video of the X glowing, pulsing and strobing, with some criticizing the intrusive light. X said the removal was voluntary.” [Axios]
The logo pulsed at night. Photo: Carlos Barria/Reuters
Ford recall
“Ford has recalled more than 870,000 F-150 trucks because the electronic parking brake could engage unexpectedly, including while the vehicle is being driven. That could cause a loss of control and possibly a crash. The recall, recently posted to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's recall website, applies to some 2021 through 2023 model year F-150 trucks with single-pipe exhaust systems. Ford will begin mailing recall notices to owners in September. So far, Ford is aware of 299 instances of the parking brake activating unintentionally and 19 of those incidents occurred while the vehicle was being driven. The automaker said it is not aware of any accidents resulting from the issue.” [CNN]
WOMEN’S WORLD CUP
Diana Gomes of Portugal tackling Sophia Smith of the U.S.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Post saves USWNT
“For a split second, it looked like the Americans — who entered the World Cup as the title favorites — were going home.
The U.S. women’s national team tied with Portugal, 0-0, early this morning, sending USWNT to the knockout round with bad vibes. They couldn’t find a goal against the Portuguese, despite all their promises last week about making “simple fixes” in order to look dominant on the world stage again.
So as Portuguese forward Ana Capeta laced a shot past American keeper Alyssa Naeher in the 91st minute, everyone who’d been awake since the 3 a.m. ET kick lost their breath for a moment. The shot hit the post. A goal would’ve sent the Americans home.
Just look how close this was:
We have full takeaways from the match here. They aren't pretty.
USWNT finishes second in Group E, just the second time the team has ever been a group runner-up. They will face the winner of Group G — likely Sweden — on Sunday at 5 a.m. ET. The U.S. is No. 1 in FIFA’s rankings; Sweden is No. 3.” [New York Times]
Paul Reubens, in character as Pee-wee Herman, in 2010.Charles Sykes/Associated Press
“Paul Reubens died at 70. As Pee-wee Herman, he brought surreal silliness to the screen.” [New York Times]
”Angus Cloud, the actor best known for his ''Euphoria'' role as Fezco, has died at 25.” [USA Today]
Cloud at an Oscars party in Beverly Hills last year. (Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)