Texas death toll crosses 50
A Sheriff's deputy pauses while combing through the banks of the Guadalupe River near Camp Mystic yesterday. Photo: Julio Cortez/AP
“The death toll from Friday's Texas flash floods has risen to at least 51 — including 15 children — as rescuers continue to search a devastated central Texas landscape of mangled trees, overturned cars and muck-filled debris.
Authorities say 27 girls from Camp Mystic, a private all-girls camp that sat on the banks of the surging Guadalupe River, remain missing. They have not said how many people are missing beyond the campers, AP reports.
Zoom out: Rain continued to fall across central Texas yesterday, Axios' Asher Price and Madalyn Mendoza report.
The rainfall numbers are ‘unbelievable,’ Avery Tomasco, a meteorologist for CBS Austin, said on air, describing the storm as a ‘rain bomb.’
A flood-damaged hall at Camp Mystic on the South Fork Guadalupe River (right) in Hunt, Texas, yesterday. Photo: Carter Johnston for The New York Times
Among those who lost their lives was Dick Eastland, the longtime director of Camp Mystic.
9-year-old campers Lila Bonner and Janie Hunt, and 8-year-old Sarah Marsh also died.
Julian Ryan, 27, ‘died a hero,’ his family told KHOU in Houston.
Ryan's fiancée told the station that when water rapidly entered their home near the river, Ryan punched out a window to get his family to safety. He wasn't able to make it out in time.” [Axios]
President Donald Trump holds his signed signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts at the White House on Friday in Washington, surrounded by members of Congress (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
Trump branded, browbeat and prevailed. But his big bill may come at a political cost
“Through persuasion and browbeating, Trump forced nearly all congressional Republicans to line up behind his marquee legislation, despite parts some in the GOP viewed as unpalatable. But Trump’s victory will soon be tested during the 2026 midterm elections where Democrats plan to run on a durable theme: that the Republican president favors the rich on tax cuts over poorer people who will lose their health care.” Read more at AP News
Supercharged "War on Terror"
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Getty Images
“Mass surveillance. Pre-emptive military strikes in the Middle East. Shipping people to domestic and foreign prisons. Citing national security to hide information from the courts. Labeling people ‘terrorists’ as a political and legal strategy.
Why it matters: Donald Trump became president in part by running against the legacy of George W. Bush, the last Republican in the White House before him. But now Trump is supercharging many of the post-9/11 legal, tactical and political strategies Bush used, Axios' Alex Thompson and Brittany Gibson write.
Zoom in: Trump's push to deport ‘millions’ of unauthorized immigrants and his strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities in particular have many parallels to Bush's ‘War on Terror.’
Trump's sending unauthorized immigrants to high-security prisons in the U.S. and abroad — sometimes denying them due process.
Bush sent alleged terrorists — including undocumented people in the U.S. — to prisons around the world and the U.S. military facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The Trump administration is now using ‘Gitmo’ for detainees it says have criminal histories.
Trump preemptively, and unilaterally, attacked Iran with 14 bunker-buster bombs and launched missiles at an Iranian-backed proxy group in Yemen, killing dozens.
He said he ordered the first attack out of concern that Iran was close to gaining a nuclear weapon. Bush used a similar rationale for invading Iraq, though, unlike Trump, he got Congress' approval beforehand.
The similarities don't stop there:
Surveillance: Trump has enlisted tech company and defense contractor Palantir to help surveil and track unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. Bush enlisted telecom companies such as AT&T and Sprint for most of his domestic surveillance in the name of stopping terrorists.
Executive orders: Trump's administration has invoked some of Bush's executive orders made after 9/11 to justify his immigration actions, as Semafor pointed out.
Courts: Both the Trump and Bush administrations concealed information from judges and court hearings using the ‘state secrets privilege,’ claiming transparency was a national security risk.
Habeas corpus: Trump has floated suspending habeas corpus — suspects' right to use the courts to fight unlawful detentions. Bush tried to do that in 2006 before it was overturned by the Supreme Court.
Reality check: There are exceptions to the Trump-Bush parallels.
Trump's immigration effort is far broader than Bush's, which focused largely on men suspected of having ties to terror groups. Trump's deportation efforts are targeted at millions more noncitizens in communities nationwide.” [Axios]
Musk's new party
“Elon Musk declared he's forming a new political party, ‘the America Party,’ via a post on X yesterday.
Why it matters: Musk is the world's richest man, and his dollars could make a difference in tight races next November, Axios' Dan Primack reports.
The announcement came after President Trump signed the "big, beautiful bill," his signature legislation of which Musk has been an outspoken critic.
On Friday, Musk had put out a poll for X followers, asking if they ‘want independence from the two party (some would say uniparty) system.’
The intrigue: Musk also floated an electoral strategy for the party Friday.
One way to execute on this would be to laser-focus on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts. Given the razor-thin legislative margins, that would be enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring that they serve the true will of the people.
Reality check: Musk didn't identify any specific races. So, for now, this is just a trial balloon.
What's next: Musk signaled he'll move fast. Early this morning, he asked his 222 million followers on X: ‘When & where should we hold the inaugural American Party congress? This will be super fun!’
Grok, the chatbot of Musk's xAI, suggested on X: ‘Austin, TX, in late August 2025—central location, innovative vibe, and timely before elections. It aligns with putting people first.’
Musk replied: ‘Good suggestion.’”
Hunger on the rise
Data: Morning Consult. Chart: Axios Visuals
“More Americans are going hungry, Axios' Emily Peck writes from new Morning Consult data.
It's a shocking data point for the wealthiest country in the world — and comes at a time when the stock market is hitting record highs and President Trump just signed a bill slashing food benefits.
Zoom in: The share of adults who tell Morning Consult in monthly surveys that they sometimes or often don't have enough to eat has been creeping up over the past several years.
In May, 15.6% of adults said so, almost double the 2021 rate.
Between the lines: Congress just passed a huge cut to food benefits, or SNAP, that is likely to make the situation far worse, says George Matysik, the executive director of a Philadelphia-area food back network that has seen demand surge 120% in the last three years.
The other side: The White House and congressional Republicans argue that cuts to these benefits are a way to bring more people into the labor market and reduce dependence on government assistance, as well as an effort to reduce waste, fraud and abuse.
INTERNATIONAL
Ceasefire talks resume
A large fire broke out following Israeli army strikes on a previously warned apartment building in Gaza City today. Photo: Khames Alrefi/Anadolu via Getty Images
“Israel rejected Hamas' proposed changes to the latest Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, but will send negotiators to Qatar today to try to close remaining gaps.
Why it matters: While key hurdles remain, the resumption of indirect talks in Qatar is a significant step toward a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
Driving the news: President Trump has been pressuring both Israel and Hamas — through Qatari and Egyptian mediators — to agree to a deal that includes a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and the release of 10 living hostages and 18 bodies.
He wants to see some progress by Monday, when he plans to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday night that he's ‘very optimistic’ about the chances of getting a deal next week.” [Axios]
Middle East
“Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since the war with Israel began. He attended a religious ceremony after weeks of sheltering in a bunker.
Israel has all but overpowered its enemies in Gaza, Iran and Lebanon. That’s come at the price of its global standing, Michael Shear writes.
The Israeli war with Iran exposed the limits of the idea of an “axis” of authoritarian nations — neither China nor Russia aided Tehran when it mattered, Edward Wong writes.” [New York Times]
Croatian right-wing singer Marko Perkovic and fans perform pro-Nazi salute at massive concert
“A hugely popular right-wing Croatian singer and hundreds of thousands of his fans performed a pro-Nazi World War II salute at a massive concert in Zagreb, drawing criticism. One of Marko Perkovic’s most popular songs, starts with the dreaded “For the homeland — Ready!” salute, used by Croatia’s Nazi-era puppet Ustasha regime that ran concentration camps at the time.” Read more at AP News
SCIENCE
Meteorologists Say the National Weather Service Did Its Job in Texas
BY MOLLY TAFT | 4-MINUTE READ
“DOGE cut hundreds of jobs at the NWS, but experts who spoke to WIRED say the agency accurately predicted the flood risk in Texas.” [Wired]
In Ingram, Texas. Jordan Vonderhaar for The New York Times
Floods in Texas
“The search for survivors continues in central Texas after a deluge of floodwater filled camp cabins to their roofs, trapped people in trailer homes and overwhelmed cars before dawn on the Fourth of July. At least 52 people were killed, including 15 children; many were sleeping when the floods hit. Among the victims were two sisters, ages 11 and 13, and a 27-year-old man who died trying to save his family. Read their stories.
Some two dozen girls at Camp Mystic, a Christian camp on the Guadalupe River, remain missing. Rescuers are struggling to find them in the ongoing downpours. Thunderstorms are lingering over Texas, and some pockets of the state could see up to 10 inches of rain today. Millions of people are still under flood watches, but the heavy rainfall is expected to ease by the evening. (We will share the latest updates here.)
Residents said they had little warning as the floods hit. The county most affected — Kerr County, northwest of San Antonio — did not have a flood warning system, officials said. Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were empty, and some experts questioned whether staffing shortages had contributed to the disaster.
In the tight-knit group of Camp Mystic families, distraught parents posted photos of their children online, offered prayers and shared hopeful stories. Rescuers found a young woman clutching a tree after she was swept away while camping with her family 20 miles upriver. (See the video.)
Greg Abbott, Texas’s governor, said he had visited the camp and described it as ‘horrendously ravaged.’ He vowed to find every person missing after the flood, even as he cautioned that it could take some time. ‘We will be relentless,’ he said. ‘We’re not going to stop today or tomorrow. We’re going to stop when the job is completed.’ The federal government said it would offer support.
Still, officials acknowledged a painful reality yesterday: As time passes, the likelihood of finding survivors diminishes. — Lauren Jackson, an editor for The Morning
At Camp Mystic. Ronaldo Schemidt/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
More on the camp
See images of Camp Mystic after the floods, including ruined cabins with children’s belongings scattered in the mud.
One camper described waking up in the middle of the night, being guided by counselors through rushing water and riding a helicopter to safety. Another girl, who is 10, began singing camp songs when she was reunited with her parents. ‘That’s a true testament to the joy that they kept in these kids’ hearts,’ her mother said. Read more of their stories.
The camp is considered a rite of passage for daughters of prominent families, The Wall Street Journal reported. Laura Bush once served as a counselor.
More on the floods
Some areas experienced a month of rain in just a few hours.
The flooded area is in a part of Texas known as the Hill Country, where many people visit for the natural beauty. The region has also become known as “Flash Flood Alley.”
Heavy downpours like the one that caused the Guadalupe River to flood have become more frequent and intense as the burning of fossil fuels has heated the planet.
Floods in the same part of Texas swept away 10 teenagers in July 1987. The river rose 29 feet on that morning. Read more here.” [New York Times]