The Full Belmonte, 7/5/2024
Trump's Kamala Harris plan
President Biden and Vice President Harris watch fireworks from the Truman Balcony of the White House last night. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
“Former President Trump strongly prefers running against President Biden than another Democrat, particularly after reviewing the latest polling. But he's preparing a brutal assault on Vice President Kamala Harris if she's the nominee, advisers tell Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen for a Behind the Curtain column.
Why it matters: Trump's attacks on her would surprise few. He'd argue Harris is too liberal, too hostile to business and secure borders, and too inexperienced, weak and phony to be president. But some of his advisers are quite concerned that a fresh, youthful, non-Biden ticket presents a bigger threat than Trump assumes.
President Biden insisted in an unscripted remark, after a supporter at a Fourth of July event on the White House South Lawn yelled that they needed him: ‘You got me, man! I'm not going anywhere.’
But among political players in both parties, coast to coast, the holiday was consumed by backstage conversations about contingencies if Biden dropped out.
What would scare Trump most is if Democrats were to build a new ticket from scratch, topped by a moderate Democrat from a swing state. This seems unlikely for reasons we outlined Thursday in our column, "Harris' epic edge."
Trump advisers read the same polls you do: They know lots of voters want someone younger, sensible, experienced. They know all that matters is persuadable voters in seven swing states. They know these swing voters mostly consider themselves independent.
The intrigue: If Democrats picked a moderate Midwestern male as Harris' running mate, the Harris-topped ticket would be more formidable, Republicans tell us.
The Trump team's biggest concern, and some early polling flicks at why, is that Harris would help turn out more women, who historically vote in greater numbers than men. Harris — armed with Democrats' abortion message, which worked well in off-year elections — could leverage the nation's gender divide.
Another GOP worry: Harris would put in play two things working in Trump's advantage right now — vitality and energy. Trump knows he seemed exponentially quicker and more energetic than Biden on the debate stage, and that many Democrats are unenthused about this ticket more broadly.
Harris changes this. At 59 (turning 6-0 two weeks before the election), she's two decades younger. A new ticket could yank Democrats out of their post-debate funk.
Trump's advisers worry he has no filter, and recognize that attacking a Black American, South Asian American woman could backfire among swing voters, where they think they're making inroads.
So there'd be a big risk for him if the ABC News debate goes ahead on Sept. 10.
Between the lines: Trump also could take a timing hit. He'll announce his VP (probably male) in coming days, then accept the GOP nomination in Milwaukee on July 18 — 13 days from now. Many voters will be on vacation, and views of him are fully baked.
Then a month later, Democrats would have a shot at redefining the race at their convention in Chicago — and, given the newness of it all, likely attract a bigger audience. 2.
First Lady Jill Biden, President Biden, Vice President Harris, and second gentleman Douglas Emhoff watch fireworks on the Truman Balcony last night. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP
Former President Trump yesterday gave Harris a nickname — always a sign he takes an opponent seriously, Jim and Mike write.
‘Laffin' Kamala Harris,’ he said on his Truth Social platform, referring to the right's spliced clips of her giddier moments. (A Trump campaign statement the day before had called her ‘Cackling Copilot Kamala Harris.’)
The Trump campaign's Jason Miller told us Harris ‘owns all of the Biden incompetence and failure, plus she adds radical ideology. Biden kowtows to California liberals. She actually is one.’
A CNN poll released Tuesday found independents back Harris, 43%-40% over Trump, and moderates prefer her, 51-39%.
Behind the scenes: Trump advisers contend Harris would do worse than Biden with blue-collar workers across the ‘blue wall’ of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — states the Democratic nominee absolutely has to win.
One Republican operative is so convinced of that, he said mischievously that if he were a Biden campaign official trying to save the president's candidacy, he'd use a super PAC or other outside group to leak swing-state polling data about Harris.
Campaign strategists tell us that if Harris became the nominee, Republicans would keep pushing her on how Biden is fit to remain in office if not fit to run.
Harris also makes a convenient face of the border crisis, one of Trump's top two issues, along with the economy (‘inflation and invasion,’ as some Trump insiders say). Biden announced in March 2021 that Harris would lead his administration's efforts on the southern border: ‘When she speaks, she speaks for me. Doesn't have to check with me. She knows what she's doing, and I hope we can move this along.’
The Biden-Harris campaign told us in response: ‘Vice President Harris is proud to be President Biden's running mate. We know Donald Trump is prone to unhinged rants against prosecutors who hold him accountable, but the Vice President will keep making the case against his support of abortion bans, violent insurrections, and more tax cuts for billionaires.’
The other side: Harris supporters tell us she could reset the race in ways that benefit Democrats. At the top of the list:
She immediately ensures the fall of Roe is a main focus of the race.
With a younger nominee, Democrats would try to make the age/fitness issue the GOP's problem.
Harris — who was elected San Francisco district attorney, and was California attorney general — would allow Dems to frame the race as a former prosecutor vs. a convicted felon.
Of course, all of this is for naught if Biden nails his interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos in Wisconsin (to be shown as a prime-time special Friday at 8 p.m. ET) and fights on. But the pressure to bow out is only intensifying.” [Axios]
Biden staff miserable, alarmed
Valerie BidenV Owens, Hunter Biden, Melissa Cohen Biden and Beau Biden Jr. are seen on a White House balcony during an Independence Day celebration in Washington, U.S., July 4, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
“Many White House, Biden campaign and Democratic officials are increasingly worried that President Biden isn't up to continuing his campaign or finishing a second term, despite his insistence that he won't be pushed out, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.
Why it matters: Outside pressure for Biden to drop his re-election bid grew wider and louder on the Fourth of July, especially from major donors. Doubts also are rising inside the house.
The big picture: ‘Everyone is miserable, and senior advisers are a total black hole,’ a White House official told Axios. ‘Even if you're trying to focus on work, nothing is going to break through or get any acknowledgment’ from bosses.
A high-ranking DNC official told Axios: ‘Everything else feels like 'Weekend at Bernie's' by his inner circle to prop him up.’
Behind the scenes: Some Biden aides believe those closest to the president have created a cocoon around him that initially seemed earnestly protective, but now appears potentially deceptive in the debate's aftermath.
They particularly focus on Deputy Chief of Staff Annie Tomasini, the first lady's top adviser Anthony Bernal, and longtime aide Ashley Williams, who joined the deputy chief of staff's office when Tomasini ascended to the role earlier this year.
Those close aides have many duties. But officials recall instances of them helping Biden make up for mental lapses, including prompting him to remember people he has known for a long time.
White House senior deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told Axios: ‘These are standard processes for any White House, regardless of president or party.’ He said the three aides' ‘professionalism and character are respected across the administration.’”c [Axios]
Starmergeddon: Britain sees red
Labour Leader Keir Starmer celebrates in London early today. Photo: Ricky Vigil/Getty Images
“U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded defeat to the center-left Labour Party, which won a landslide in yesterday's general election — delivering a huge blow to the ruling Conservative Party after 14 years in power, Axios' Dave Lawler and Zachary Basu write.
Why it matters: Incumbents are on a losing streak around the world — particularly in Europe, where inflation has fueled voter discontent. In Britain, the Conservatives' defeat was largely of their own making.
Labour leader Keir Starmer, 61, will officially become prime minister today.
In the merciless choreography of British politics, Starmer will move into 10 Downing St. within hours, as Sunak is hustled out.
Sunak said as he confirmed he'll step down as Tory leader: ‘I have heard your anger.’
Late edition of today's Financial Times.
Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss, the shortest-serving prime minister in British history, was among several prominent Conservative Party lawmakers to lose their seats.
Defense Secretary Grant Shapps lost his seat.
The bottom line: Five years ago, Conservatives were flush with confidence and Labour was lost in the political wilderness. On July 4, the roles officially reversed.” Get the latest. [Axios]
“Keir Starmer led the Labour Party to an emphatic victory in the UK, ending 14 years of Conservative rule in a landslide second only to Tony Blair’s win in 1997. No surprises there, if you were watching the polls.
The reaffirmation of internationalist, NATO-backing leadership in a Group of Seven economy will give some comfort to centrists shaken by rising electoral support for the likes of Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen. That said, the red wave that swept across Britain concealed a fracturing political landscape not dissimilar to those in the US and France.
WATCH: Alex Morgan takes a look at the key policy plans of Starmer and Rachel Reeves, who’s set to become chancellor. Source: Bloomberg
Starmer’s victory stemmed in part from a surge in support for Brexit-campaigner Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform UK, which siphoned off once-loyal Tory votes. The party received some 14% of the vote, though only won four seats in Parliament under Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system.
One of those was Farage himself, becoming an MP on his eighth attempt. He has pledged to take over the right of British politics in a bid to be prime minister by 2029. ‘We’re coming for Labour,’ Farage said after his win in the pro-Brexit coastal town of Clacton.
With turnout at a 100-year low, the election showed widespread disaffection with the political status quo. Minor parties, including the third-placed Liberal Democrats, saw their combined vote share rise to the highest level since at least 1918.
Starmer alluded to the challenge in a victory speech early today. ‘Make no mistake,’ he told cheering supporters, ‘the fight for trust is the battle that defines our age.’
After slumping to a historic defeat, the Conservatives face a period of intense soul-searching about where they went wrong and the direction they take to rebuild support.
Labour now takes on the challenge of tackling Britain’s strained finances, crumbling public services and surging immigration.
Starmer’s honeymoon as prime minister may be short.” — Brendan Scott and Isabella Ward [Bloomberg]
Farage reacts after the results for the Clacton constituency are announced. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Israel approves plans for over 5,000 new homes in West Bank settlements
“The plans are the latest in a campaign to accelerate settlement expansion, aimed at cementing Israeli control over the territory and preventing the establishment of a future Palestinian state. Read more.
Why this matters:
Israel’s turbocharged settlement drive threatens to further stoke tensions in the West Bank, which has seen a surge in violence since the war in Gaza began on Oct. 7. In an escalation over past months, settlers have carried out more than 1,000 attacks on Palestinians, causing deaths, damaging property and in some cases prompting Palestinians to flee villages.
The Palestinians seek the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza – areas captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war – for an independent state. Netanyahu’s government is dominated by settlers and their supporters who approve of a rapid expansion drive that is, in part, intended to ensure a Palestinian state cannot be created.” [AP News]
Hurricane Beryl will hit Mexico this morning.
All times Eastern. Source: National Weather Service. (Dylan Moriarty, Aditya Jain and Szu Yu Chen/The Washington Post)
“What to know: The record-breaking storm is on a collision course with the Yucatán Peninsula and could reach southern Texas by Sunday or Monday. We’re tracking it here.
What to watch: Beryl could increase the risk of dangerous rip currents along the Gulf Coast this weekend — which can be particularly threatening to tourists.”
Read this story at Washington Post
“Le Pen’s move from fringe to frontrunner in France’s parliamentary elections has been due in part to her willingness to soften some of the more divisive rhetoric of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen and to reassure business over her economic policies. Her far-right National Rally party is on course for a historic victory on Sunday, though it looks set to fall short of an outright majority.” [Bloomberg]
Le Pen dances with her father at a political convention in Paris in May 1984. Photographer: Jacques Pavlovsky/Sygma/Corbis/Getty Images
“The chorus of voices that want Joe Biden to step aside following his disastrous debate performance is growing louder, and not only at home. From Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to European officials, speaking privately, there is a desire for the US president to clear the way for someone with a better shot at beating Trump in November.” [Bloomberg]
“Iran’s presidential runoff today is a straight fight between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and anti-Western Islamist Saeed Jalili. They’ve clashed in televised debates over the future of the now-defunct nuclear deal, internet censorship and how to revive the struggling economy to woo an electorate that mostly shunned the ballot box in last week’s first round. The vote comes during a crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic and its ultimate ruler, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.” [Bloomberg]
“Israel is considering a fresh proposal from Hamas on a pause in fighting in Gaza and a release of hostages, raising the possibility of a breakthrough following months of deadlocked talks. A senior US official said the Palestinian militant group has broadly agreed to the framework of a cease-fire proposal with Israel, though the deal’s mechanics aren’t resolved. The head of Mossad will travel to Qatar today, local media said.” [Bloomberg]
“The wife of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is due to testify in court today as part of an investigation into her business dealings that’s rocked the nation’s politics for months. Begona Gomez is the target of a probe into alleged influence peddling and private-sector corruption. No charges have been filed against her and the government has denied any wrongdoing.” [Bloomberg]
“Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived in Moscow on a self-styled “peace mission” just days after he visited Kyiv, triggering a rebuke from European Union leaders who said he had no mandate to represent the bloc.” [Bloomberg]
“Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum named Rosa Icela Rodriguez as interior minister, sounding a note of continuity as she navigates the transition period before Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leaves office in about three months.” [Bloomberg]
“Romania scheduled key elections for later this year after weeks of bickering between the nation’s ruling parties over the timeline laid bare cracks in the two-year long power-sharing government.” [Bloomberg]
July 5, 2024
Good morning. We’re covering Independence Days around the world —
In Hoboken, N.J. Jeenah Moon for The New York Times
“Americans declared independence from the British 248 years ago. Throughout this long weekend, people will celebrate the holiday with a hot, sticky spectacle of national identity. Towns hold parades and shoot fireworks, families have barbecues and crowds wear red, white and blue. The Times publishes the Declaration of Independence in full.
Dozens of other countries have seceded from the British Empire. Even more have seceded from other empires, and many countries mark their liberty with holidays that display their national identities, too.
We wanted to share how other countries honor their independence each summer. Here’s a look:
Algeria | July 5
In Algiers. Mohamed Messara/EPA, via Shutterstock
Algeria lived under 132 years of colonial French rule. After a brutal war, the country declared its independence on the anniversary of the French invasion of Algiers. Across the country, Algerians hold parades and dress in traditional tribal clothing. The president issues pardons to thousands of prisoners including, in some instances, anti-government activists.
Iceland | June 17
Iceland was part of Denmark until it held a referendum during the Nazi era. Icelanders now celebrate independence on the birthday of Jón Sigurðsson, a major figure in the Icelandic independence movement. People hold parades across the island; they often include a woman meant to personify Iceland. She wears a traditional dress and recites a poem.
Indonesia | Aug. 17
A greased-pole race in Jakarta, Indonesia. Mast Irham/EPA, via Shutterstock
A four-year war ended Dutch colonial rule in Indonesia. Indonesians hold games and competitions to celebrate, like sack races and eating contests. One of the most popular games is “panjat pinang,” where players attempt to climb a greasy pole to get the prizes sitting on top — including, often, bicycles.
Jamaica | Aug. 6
Jamaica commemorates its turn from a British colony to a Commonwealth country with around a week of parades. Jamaican artists also participate in a competition to write an original, patriotic song. (Here are some of the winning songs over the years.)
Niger | Aug. 3
Niger’s independence day, commemorating the end of French colonial rule, coincides with its National Arbor Day, which encourages Nigeriens to plant trees. In the last few decades, over 200 million new trees have grown in southern Niger.
North and South Korea | Aug. 15
Sisters holding flags in Seoul. Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA, via Shutterstock
North and South Korea both celebrate their independence from 35 years of Japanese imperial rule. It is one of the few holidays the countries share. North Korea knows the day as “Liberation of the Fatherland Day.” In South Korea, where the holiday’s literal translation is “Restoration of Light Day,” buildings are decorated with the national flag.
Pakistan and India | Aug. 14 and 15, respectively
Pakistani troops at the border with India. Shahzaib Akber/EPA, via Shutterstock
After decades of colonial rule, Britain left the Indian subcontinent in 1947, partitioning the region into two new countries: India and Pakistan. Pakistan and India both still celebrate the partition as their independence. On their border, Indian and Pakistani soldiers perform a daily symbolic ritual of rivalry to roaring crowds. But on this special occasion, forces also share sweets and gifts with their counterparts on the other side, a gesture of peace.
Peru | July 28
In Lima, Peru. Aldair Mejia/EPA, via Shutterstock
Peru celebrates its independence from Spain by celebrating for multiple days. Schools hold winter break during this period, workers receive bonuses and the military holds a parade. Presidents or vice presidents are also inaugurated on the holiday.
Philippines | June 12
In Manila. Rolex Dela Pena/EPA, via Shutterstock
Filipinos celebrate their declaration of independence from Spain after more than 300 years of colonial rule. Today, people honor their heritage online by writing alternative Philippine history and sharing memes about events from the past.” [New York Times]
It’s been a year since Meta launched Threads.
“How’s it going? The social network is still growing, after it attracted millions of users overnight last July. But it’s a fraction of the size of its top rival X, formerly known as Twitter.
Is it worth trying? It depends on what you want. It doesn’t promote political content, so it can feel more relaxed than X. But creators are struggling to understand the platform.”
Read this story at Washington Post
A new men’s hot-dog eating champion was crowned yesterday.
“Your king: Patrick Bertoletti, who guzzled 58 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. Joey Chestnut, who won the previous eight contests, had been banned from the competition.
On the women’s side: Miki Sudo marched on, winning at Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest for the 10th time. She ate a record-breaking 51 hot dogs.”
Read this story at Washington Post
S'mores ramen!
Photo: Nissin Foods
“Now you can savor a summer cookout from your microwave instead of an open flame, with Cup Noodles Campfire S'mores, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.
Why it matters: Companies are aiming to create viral products that sell out and land on the resale market. S'mores ramen is already selling on eBay at marked-up prices.
This is Nissin Foods' first dessert ramen option, available exclusively at Walmart (online for $1.18).
It follows "Cup Noodles Breakfast" ("maple syrup, pancakes, sausage and egg") an Everything Bagel with Cream Cheese flavor and Pumpkin Spice ramen.
S'mores ramen has 400 calories and 14 grams of fat. Ingredients include honey, brown sugar, corn syrup, onion powder and garlic powder — along with sodium bicarbonate, sodium hexametaphosphate and a long list of preservatives.
Bon appétit!
Share this story.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: V. Craig Jordan was a pharmacologist who discovered a key breast cancer drug and helped save the lives of millions of women. He died at 76.” [New York Times]