The Full Belmonte, 7/26/2023
A judge blocks limits on asylum at US-Mexico border but gives Biden administration time to appeal
“WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal judge on Tuesday blocked a rule that allows immigration authorities to deny asylum to migrants who arrive at the U.S.-Mexico border without first applying online or seeking protection in a country they passed through. But the judge delayed his ruling from taking effect immediately to give President Joe Biden’s administration time to appeal.
The order from U.S. District Judge Jon Tigar of the Northern District of California takes away a key enforcement tool set in place by the Biden administration as coronavirus-based restrictions on asylum expired in May. The new rule imposes severe limitations on migrants seeking asylum but includes room for exceptions and does not apply to children traveling alone….” Read more at AP News
The House is on a clear course to pursuing an impeachment case against President Biden, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said.
The president's son set to plead guilty.
“The California Republican’s comment was a reaction to developments in Republican probes into Hunter Biden’s international business dealings. GOP lawmakers allege that they potentially benefited or were tied to his father, the president. The White House has repeatedly denied that. The junior Biden is set to plead guilty tomorrow to two misdemeanor charges of failure to pay taxes in a deal that avoids a politically explosive prosecution during the 2024 presidential election season.” [Wall Street Journal]
Education Department opens investigation into Harvard’s legacy admissions
“Opening a new front in legal challenges over college admissions, the U.S. Department of Education has launched a civil rights investigation into Harvard University’s policies on legacy admissions. Top colleges’ preferential treatment of children of alumni, who are often white, has faced mounting scrutiny since the Supreme Court struck down the use of affirmative action as a tool to boost the presence of students of color. Read more.
Why this matters:
A complaint was filed earlier this month on behalf of Black and Latino community groups in New England by Lawyers for Civil Rights, a nonprofit based in Boston. The group argued that students with legacy ties are up to seven times more likely to be admitted to Harvard, can make up nearly a third of a class and that about 70% are white. For the Class of 2019, about 28% of the class were legacies with a parent or other relative who went to Harvard.
Ending legacy preferences is ‘one of many steps that Harvard and other universities can take to increase access, diversity, and equity in admissions,’ said Jane Sujen Bock, a board member of the Coalition for a Diverse Harvard, which includes alumni, student and staff.” [AP News]
LeBron James’ son suffers cardiac arrest during USC practice
“Bronny James, the 18-year-old son of NBA superstar LeBron James, suffered a cardiac arrest during practice in Los Angeles on Monday and was taken to the hospital, the family said.
‘He is now in stable condition and no longer in ICU,’ the family said in a statement.
Bronny James is an incoming freshman at the University of Southern California, where the medical emergency unfolded.
‘LeBron and Savannah wish to publicly send their deepest thanks and appreciation to the USC medical and athletic staff for their incredible work and dedication to the safety of their athletes,’ the family statement said.
Damar Hamlin, the Buffalo Bills player who suffered a cardiac arrest on the field in January, voiced his support for the family on Twitter.
‘Prayers to Bronny & The James family as well. here for you guys just like you have been for me my entire process,’ Hamlin tweeted.” [NBC News]
Beyond the peripheral disputes is a more fundamental disagreement over who should truly be in charge: Ron DeSantis' campaign or the super PAC. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
“DeSANTIS IN DiSARRAY — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ presidential campaign proclaimed a ‘reset’ yesterday as it laid off more than a third of its staff and promised a more focused message alongside a leaner operation.
‘Ron DeSantis loves being the underdog and he's ready to prove everyone wrong again,’ campaign spokesperson ANDREW ROMEO wrote in a messaging memo.
But behind the scenes, there are serious doubts whether the layoffs will do anything to address a fundamental weakness of DeSantis’ presidential bid: the rising tension and distrust brewing between his campaign and the main super PAC supporting him, Never Back Down.
The finger-pointing is in full swing, multiple people affiliated with both entities told Playbook, with each side blaming the other for tripping up the candidate they still believe has the best shot at beating DONALD TRUMP for the Republican nomination.
The disconnect has occasionally come into view, such as when super PAC sources told RealClear Politics recently that they expected DeSantis to skip the upcoming GOP debate if Trump does. Yet a few days later, DeSantis said he planned to attend.
Beyond the peripheral disputes, however, is a more fundamental disagreement over who should truly be in charge: the nominal campaign, which is under the direct control of the candidate and his closest advisers, or the super PAC, which can accept massive checks from wealthy donors but is barred from coordinating with DeSantis or the campaign.
Because they can’t legally sit down and talk it out, the two poles of DeSantis world have instead tried to communicate through leaked memos and — more recently — testy background quotes in the media.
Ironically, the tensions are playing out as DeSantis joins NBD as its ‘special guest’ for an Iowa bus tour tomorrow and Friday. Whether the two entities can find a groove and work together while adhering to campaign finance law, however, is yet to be determined.
‘It’s clear that NBD is going to be taking on a bigger role given the publicly available finances, and they are busy making ads and building the Iowa bus tour this week,’ said a person familiar with the super PAC’s plans.
The campaign, meanwhile, disputed any disagreement: ‘Our campaign is laser-focused [on] electing Ron DeSantis president and we are nothing but grateful for groups like Never Back Down that are working to support this mission,’ Romeo said in a statement.” [POLITICO]
American freed in Russia prisoner swap injured in Ukraine, U.S. says
“Trevor Reed, the former U.S. Marine released in a prisoner swap with Russia last year, was injured while fighting in Ukraine, the State Department confirmed.
Reed ‘was not engaged in any activities on behalf of the U.S. government,’ State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said today at a press briefing. Reed was taken to Germany for medical care, Patel added. His condition was unclear.
The former Marine was wrongfully detained in Russia for nearly three years, before he was exchanged in 2022 for a Russian drug trafficker.
Patel said, ‘Since the beginning of this war, we have warned that U.S. citizens who travel to Ukraine, especially for the purpose of participating in fighting there, that they face significant risks including the risk of capture or death or physical harm as well.’” [NBC News]
UPS and Teamsters reach tentative agreement to avert strike
Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
“On Tuesday, UPS and the Teamsters union that represents more than 340,000 UPS workers reached a tentative agreement to avoid a strike.” [Vox] [ABC News / Max Zahn and Sam Sweeney]
“Full- and part-time employees will earn an additional $2.75 per hour in 2023 and $7.50 more per hour by the end of the five-year deal. The deal eliminates the current two-tier pay scale for full- and part-time workers as well as forced overtime on days off.” [Vox] [Guardian / Michael Sainato]
“Workers demanded better compensation and conditions in the wake of UPS profits surging over 140 percent since the last contract signing.” [Vox] [Associated Press / Haleluya Hadero]
“UPS delivers about a fourth of US packages; a 10-day strike would’ve cost the company $810 million.” [Vox] [Washington Post / Lauren Kaori Gurley]
“The deal, which must be ratified by union members, could face more challenges due to lingering frustration over how UPS used its pandemic profits among some workers.” [Vox] [CNN / Vanessa Yurkevich and Chris Isidore]
Extreme heat wave expands to Midwest, heads for Northeast
“Heat alerts are impacting 41 million people across 12 states, as the extreme heat baking the Southwest moves into the central U.S. today.
Record-breaking temperatures are likely today in Tucson, Phoenix, Denver, Colorado Springs, Billings, El Paso and Amarillo.
Phoenix has suffered through a record 26 consecutive days with temperatures at 110 degrees or higher. In Florida, water temperatures along the coast have soared to more than 100 degrees.
The core of the heat is expected to keep moving east, and by Friday record highs will be likely in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Heat waves are expected in Nashville, Raleigh, Cincinnati, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York and Hartford, among several other cities.
The heat waves scorching the U.S. and Europe this summer would have been “virtually impossible” if not for climate change, a new study finds.” [NBC News]
“Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was uninjured after he and his team were involved in a car crash in Tennessee, his presidential campaign said.” [NBC News]
“A personal chef who worked for the Obamas died while paddle boarding near the family’s Martha’s Vineyard home, state police and the Obamas said Monday.” [NBC News]
Optimistic Outlook
Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on July 25.Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images
“Let’s start the day on a positive note, shall we? Global risk of an economic meltdown is projected to decrease this year, according to a new World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The data, released on Tuesday, predicts global growth at 3 percent this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the IMF’s last prediction in April. Next year’s growth forecast remains unchanged at 3 percent.
However, we’re not completely out of the woods yet. High inflation continues to trouble G-20 nations; developing countries are facing brutal debt distress; and international crises such as Russia’s war in Ukraine are expected to increase the price of food, fuel, and fertilizer—which will likely be exacerbated by Moscow leaving the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
‘In the near term, the signs of progress are undeniable,’ IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. ‘Yet many challenges still cloud the horizon, and it is too early to celebrate.’
Of 190 countries surveyed, the United Kingdom saw the biggest win: a larger-than-expected jump of 0.7 percentage points to 0.4 percent growth, spurred by strong consumer spending. With this upward revision, the U.K. is expected to avoid a recession. But London wasn’t the only economy to receive good news. The United States is now more likely than previously predicted to decrease inflation rates without excessive job losses, with the IMF projecting GDP growth at 1.8 percent in 2023.
China’s economy is expected to grow by a modest 5.2 percent in 2023—and just 4.5 percent in 2024. Poor real estate investments, weak foreign demand, devastating zero-COVID policies, and high youth unemployment have all contributed to Beijing’s domestic shortcomings. The biggest loser of all, though, appears to be Germany. The European nation was the only IMF member whose economy is predicted to contract. Manufacturing production levels in the country fell for the third consecutive month in June and at their fastest rate since May 2020, dragging down the eurozone’s growth to be only 0.9 percent this year.
So long as no major financial crises strike, the IMF report suggests that the world’s economic future looks bright. Still, Gourinchas urged central banks to avoid premature easing until they are confident the economy is stable—advise the world’s rate-setters appear to be taking. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by a quarter point. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will likely raise rates to their highest level since 2000. And next week, the Bank of England is predicted to hike rates for the 14th consecutive time.” [Foreign Policy]
“Where is Qin Gang? Beijing is bringing back a familiar face to take over as foreign minister. Current Foreign Minister Qin Gang will be replaced by his predecessor, Wang Yi, effective immediately, state media reported on Tuesday. The decision was approved during a meeting of the National People’s Congress, which is usually only held at the end of each month. President Xi Jinping did not indicate why the transition was made.
The announcement comes a month after Qin disappeared from the public eye. He was last seen with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko on June 25, less than 48 hours after the Wagner Group’s attempted coup in Russia. Apart from a vague mention of ‘health reasons,’ no explanation for his disappearance was ever given.
The Chinese Communist Party has a history of secrecy and unexplained removals, FP’s James Palmer explored in last week’s China Brief. ‘Such disappearances have accelerated under Xi, who has purged high-level politicians as part of a campaign targeted both at corruption and at securing his hold on power.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Demanding change. Around 300 protesters gathered in Tunisia’s capital on Tuesday to mark the second year of President Kais Saied’s self-coup. Demonstrators condemned state human rights violations and demanded the release of more than 20 opposition and other figures detained in February for ‘conspiracy against state security.’ Activists continue to accuse Saied of engaging in a “witch hunt” against individuals for supporting freedom of speech and opinion.
Elected in 2019, Saied suspended the nation’s parliament in July 2021 and seized executive control. Since his reign began, the country has faced a financial reckoning, xenophobia has skyrocketed, food crises continue to afflict the general public, and young voters are increasingly turning against the state.” [Foreign Policy]
“Another blow to women’s rights. Thousands of beauty salons in Afghanistan became the latest target of Taliban repression on Tuesday after the group announced the immediate closure of all such parlors following the end of a one-month deadline. Their reasoning: Salons violate their extremely strict interpretation of Islamic law and cause economic hardship for grooms’ families during wedding celebrations. It is unclear if force will be used against salons that do not abide by the new law, though precedent suggests violent punishment is likely.
International rights groups and the United Nations condemned the Taliban’s ruling, calling it another tactic to curb women’s rights. The announcement itself comes amid rare public protests against the new law. Since the Taliban came to power in August 2021, they have also barred women and girls from accessing education, public spaces, and most employment opportunities.” [Foreign Policy]
“As North Korea marks the 70th anniversary of the armistice that ended Korean War fighting on July 27, 1953, it’s once again Russia the regime must thank.
Russia and China have sent high-profile delegations to Pyongyang to join in the festivities in a reminder of the role they played in helping North Korea seven decades ago, when Beijing sent soldiers to join the conflict while Moscow offered political and military support for Pyongyang.
The celebrations come at a crucial time for leader Kim Jong Un as he seeks to ease up on pandemic border controls that slammed the brakes on his economy. He’s also looking for support from his powerful friends in Moscow and Beijing to fend off new sanctions as he increases the potency of his nuclear arms program designed to deliver strikes on the US and its allies.
Kim has found fresh ways to fill his depleted coffers, often involving neighbors Russia and China. This money is enabling him to ignore incentives designed to bring him back to the negotiating table, and press ahead with building his atomic arsenal.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine may have opened a new stream of cash for North Korea, with the US accusing Pyongyang of providing some of its vast stores of munitions to help President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
Together with the reopening of trade links with China and other sources of income like cybercrime, the assistance from Russia is ensuring the economy remains stable enough to function, enabling Kim to continue defying the international community.
The fact that the Kremlin’s top military officer, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, is leading the delegation has stoked speculation he may be talking more about weapons than reminiscing about the decades of their friendly relations.
For Kim, that’s an encouraging sign that Moscow is just as eager to maintain strong ties.” — Jon Herskovitz [Bloomberg]
Kim and his daughter inspect the site of a missile launch at Pyongyang International Airport. Photographer: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP Photo
“Locked in a tussle with China for global dominance, President Joe Biden’s administration is pouring subsidies into US manufacturing in a bid to create jobs at home while building a lead over Beijing in key technologies. Read how Biden’s sweeping new industrial policy has unleashed a global contest that’s straining alliances, threatening budgets and channeling unprecedented amounts of public cash into private companies.
Norway’s generous tax incentives and subsidies have created the world’s most successful market for electric vehicles, but it’s now facing the challenge of weaning its citizens off them.” [Bloomberg]
“The Senate attached a measure to the annual defense policy bill that would require US companies to notify the government about certain investments in China and other countries of concern, although they wouldn’t be subject to review. Similar to a planned Biden administration executive order, it would focus on high-tech sectors such as quantum computing, semiconductors and artificial intelligence.” [Bloomberg]
“Israeli activists fear that legislation passed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition will let the government deepen the power of religion to shape their lives. The administration says the proposals will enhance democracy by making elected lawmakers less beholden to unelected judges, but critics say the government is joining a global revolt against liberalism and that bills making their way through the Knesset amount to a gender counter-coup.
A selloff rocking Israeli markets deepened, with stocks, bonds and the currency all tumbling in the wake of the new law that curbs judicial oversight.” [Bloomberg]
Demonstrators in Tel Aviv on July 18. Photographer: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images
“Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is set to return to Thailand next month after 15 years in self-imposed exile, a move likely to add to the political chaos that’s gripped the country since a May general election. His youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is among the three prime ministerial candidates of Pheu Thai Party, which Thaksin backs and is now leading the efforts of a pro-democracy coalition to form a new government and end a near decade-long military-backed rule.” ” [Bloomberg]
“Sweden warned of a deteriorating security situation after disinformation campaigns and Koran burnings fueled hatred against the Nordic country across the Muslim world.” ” [Bloomberg]
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face a rare floor test in India’s parliament after the opposition moved a no-confidence motion over the deadly violence in Manipur.” ” [Bloomberg]
“Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will retire after nearly four decades in power, leaving his West Point-educated son Hun Manet to form a new government after the ruling party claimed a landslide election victory over the weekend.” ” [Bloomberg]
“Zimbabwe’s government has undermined civil liberties and quashed dissent over the past five years, helping entrench President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is seeking re-election next month, Amnesty International said.” ” [Bloomberg]
“Putin is trying to recapture the glory of the Soviet-era space program with the launch scheduled for Aug. 11 of the uncrewed Luna-25 mission to the Moon that has been in the works for more than a decade. After some high-profile failures and a loss of customers since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia needs a win as it risks missing out on the space economy, which totaled $464 billion last year, according to one estimate.” ” [Bloomberg]
Putin visits the assembly room for rockets at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in April 2022. Photographer: Evgeny Biyatov/Sputnik/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
July 26, 2023
Did Covid jump from an animal to a person at a food market in Wuhan, China — or leak from a research lab there? That question remains the pandemic’s central mystery.
There may never be a definitive answer. But scientists and other experts continue to study the issue and uncover relevant information. This week, The Times Magazine published a story about Covid’s origins by David Quammen, a veteran science journalist, and I’m turning over the rest of today’s newsletter to Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies in Washington. — David Leonhardt
Domestic Correspondent
Good morning. We’re covering the origins of Covid, Harvard’s legacy admissions and an Italian vigilante on TikTok.
Hospital staff in Wuhan, China, in January 2020.Hector Retamal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Missing evidence
“In the early days of the pandemic, I was speaking to a variety of U.S. intelligence officials who believed that China was hiding the truth of what happened with Covid. They were right: China was.
In the name of safety, Chinese officials ordered that coronavirus samples be destroyed. At best, this hampered the later investigation into Covid’s origins, and at worst it was a sign of a cover-up.
In this context, some of those intelligence officials believed that people were not paying enough attention to the lab-leak theory. They spoke about a history of accidents and safety problems in Chinese labs. Some, including the lab in Wuhan, also had a history of ‘gain of function’ research, which tries to create dangerous viruses so scientists can learn how to combat them before they emerge in the wild.
The problem is that viruses can leak from labs with destructive effects. The 2001 anthrax attacks leaked (purposely) from Fort Detrick, one of the most secure labs in America, and a deadly 1977 flu outbreak likely came from a Soviet lab. (Josh Clark’s “The End of the World” podcast did an episode on near-miss lab leaks.)
These patterns probably helped explain the conclusion that F.B.I. intelligence officials made, with medium confidence, that a lab leak was the most plausible origin of Covid. The Department of Energy also considers the lab-leak theory to be the more likely explanation, at least in part because of the safety protocols in the Chinese labs.
At the end of the Trump administration, the State Department released a piece of intelligence that seemed to bolster the lab-leak hypothesis: In late 2019, a few researchers at the Wuhan lab, known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, became ill with flulike symptoms.
From the beginning, there were divisions in the U.S. intelligence community. The politics swirling around lab-leak idea made intelligence officers wary of reaching conclusions, for fear of being seen as partisan. Some Republicans had gravitated to the theory, and President Trump pushed it as a way to blame China for Covid. Some Democrats dismissed it as a conspiracy theory with xenophobic overtones.
Still, the lab-leak theory gained traction early in the Biden administration because of the sick Wuhan workers and China’s failure to cooperate with international investigators.
‘Not consistent’
The Wuhan Institute of VirologyHector Retamal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
But the situation has changed somewhat over the past year.
One development: U.S. intelligence agencies determined that the sick lab workers in Wuhan might not have had Covid. As a recent report explained, ‘The researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with Covid-19.’ That report — which is short and easy to read — is nominally neutral. But because it undermined some evidence that the lab-leak advocates had cited, the report had the effect of bolstering the case for natural transmission.
The intelligence community also says there is no evidence that the coronavirus research at the Wuhan lab could have been a precursor to the virus that causes Covid (as the Times Magazine story details).
This information helps explain why five intelligence agencies lean toward the natural-transmission theory. While officials have not explicitly outlined the reasoning, the scientific research tracking the virus’s origins seems to favor natural transmission.
The C.I.A., the nation’s premier spy agency, does not lean one way or the other. Officials say that is because too much evidence has been lost — because of the chaos of the pandemic, China’s destruction of samples and the passage of time.
U.S. intelligence agencies work by stealing secrets from other countries. But American officials said that China did not appear to want to know what caused the pandemic. Some Chinese officials believe the case for natural transmission. Others are less convinced but know that if evidence points to a lab leak, it will be bad for their country. So they have every incentive not to look. If you want to keep a secret, as George Orwell wrote, you must hide it from yourself.
We have to be prepared that we might never know the answer.
Related: ‘Some contrarians say that it doesn’t matter, the source of the virus. What matters, they say, is how we cope with the catastrophe it has brought, the illness and death it continues to cause,’ David Quammen writes in the magazine. ‘Those contrarians are wrong. It does matter.’
Tick-borne illnesses rise
A deer tick under a microscope. Photo: Victoria Arocho/AP
“The warming planet is spreading types of tick-borne illnesses to new places.
The big picture: As Earth warms on average and winters become milder, ticks are becoming active earlier in the year, extending the length of time they actively feed on humans and animals, AP reports.
Case in point: Over the last 60 years, the U.K. has become roughly 1.8°F warmer. Even a fraction of a degree of global warming creates more opportunity for ticks to breed and spread disease.
Public health officials are particularly concerned about tick-borne encephalitis, a deadlier disease than Lyme, the first known case of which popped up in the U.K. in 2022.”
Read on. [Axios]
A memorial sign at Graball Landing in Mississippi, where Emmett Till's body was pulled from the Tallahatchie River. Photo: Rogelio V. Solis/AP
“Emmett Till and his mother, Mamie Till-Mobley, will be honored with a new national monument established by President Biden today. The monument will cover 5.7 acres in Illinois, where Till was born, and Mississippi, where he was killed. The sites include the spot along the Tallahatchie River just outside Glendora, Miss., where his body was found and the courthouse where his killers were tried. Go deeper.” [Axios]
Country controversy tops charts
Jason Aldean performs in Twin Lakes, Wis., on Saturday. Photo: Joshua Applegate/Getty Images
“A week after controversy engulfed Jason Aldean's country song "Try That in a Small Town," it's a commercial juggernaut, Axios Nashville co-author Adam Tamburin writes.
Surging sales and streams pushed the song to No. 2 on Billboard's all-genre Hot 100 chart.
By the numbers: The song hit 11.7 million on-demand audio and video streams between July 14 and 20 — a 1,000% increase from the week before, AP reports from Luminate data.
Digital song sales increased from 1,000 to 228,000.
The song depicts an exaggerated urban-rural divide in which cities are dominated by unrest that isn't tolerated in small towns.
Some critics have said the song and its video promote gun violence and lynching, which Aldean denies. Country Music Television pulled the video last week.
‘You couldn't ask for a better gift when it comes to promoting a record, especially for that core Jason Aldean audience, than what CMT did in publicly pulling the music video,’ Kurt Bardella, a Democratic strategist and former GOP Oversight spokesperson who runs the country music tipsheet The Morning Hangover, tells Axios
Aldean sings: "Try that in a small town. See how far you make it down the road. Around here, we take care of our own."
"You cross that line, it won't take long for you to find out. I recommend you don't."
Between the lines: The video features a performance in front of Tennessee's Maury County Courthouse, which was the site of a 1946 race riot and a 1927 lynching.
Aldean has defended the song, tweeting that ‘there is not a single lyric ... that references race or points to it.’
‘If the goal was to try to limit the consumption of the song and the spread of the song … clearly this approach doesn't work. It backfired massively,’ Bardella says.
The situation mirrors broader political debates over cancel culture, with country fans ultimately feeling defensive and entrenched, he says.
Share this story. [Axios]
”Lives Lived: Johnny Lujack, who won the 1947 Heisman Trophy and played on three national championship teams, was Notre Dame’s most publicized football player since the 1920s. He died at 98.” [New York Times]