The Full Belmonte, 7/24/2023
Presidential race
“Seven Republican presidential candidates have met the polling requirements to appear on the August 23 debate stage following new polling from Fox Business in Iowa and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have each reached 1% or higher in at least two qualifying national polls and two qualifying state polls from separate states, which is a requirement set by the Republican National Committee. Candidates must also meet fundraising criteria and sign a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee to qualify for the debate. Pence is the only candidate who has met the polling threshold but says he has not reached the fundraising threshold.” [CNN]
Ukraine
A Ukrainian soldier at the front line.Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to retaliate against Moscow after Russian missiles badly damaged a historic cathedral in the port city of Odesa. Following the attack, Zelensky reiterated his call for more air defense systems, saying ‘a full-fledged sky shield’ is ‘the only way to defeat Russian missile terror.’ Ukraine has received new armored vehicles and weaponry from the US and allies, but Kyiv's air defense systems are struggling to fend off Russian assaults because they're ill-equipped to knock down certain types of missiles, the defense ministry said. Still, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleskii Reznikov predicts the war in his country will be over by next summer. In an interview with CNN, Reznikov expressed confidence that Ukraine will ‘win this war’ and be admitted to NATO next year as well.” [CNN]
Scorching heat
“More than 35 million people in the US are under heat alerts with high temperatures expected to linger over the nation for at least another week. The massive swath of extreme heat is not only taking a toll on millions of Americans — it's also driving up costs for businesses and putting pressure on the economy. Recent studies have shown that the unrelenting heat could cost the US $100 billion annually from the productivity loss alone. The losses are steepest in sectors such as agriculture and construction because outdoor workers tend to be less productive when it's hot. Some restaurants with outdoor seating are also being impacted, as busy patios have become mostly barren and sales have sunk to near levels not seen since the pandemic.” [CNN]
Photo: Ohad Zwigenberg/AP
Above: Israelis protest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's judicial overhaul plan outside parliament in Jerusalem yesterday, ahead of today's first major vote to remake the country's justice system.
Below: Right-wing demonstrators, who back the Israeli government and its reform plans, rally in Tel Aviv yesterday.
Photo: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images
“Israel’s Parliament is due today to pass a bill curbing the power of courts to oversee political decisions, a move that has driven hundreds of thousands into the street and exposed an existential fault line through society.
The government measure removes from judges the ability to void an appointment or decision due to it being ‘unreasonable,’ a broad category that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his religious, right-wing supporters consider a license to legislate from the bench.
Israel’s politics have increasingly emphasized Jewish nationalism while the judiciary remains in the hands of those who lean more toward liberal universal principles. So opponents fear the legislation is the beginning of the end of democracy and that minorities and non-Jews won’t be properly protected.
The fact that Netanyahu’s administration includes advocates whose anti-Arab views were once banned, and that he is under indictment for bribery and fraud, adds to critics’ sense that this is not a technical adjustment but a power grab.
President Isaac Herzog, who holds a largely ceremonial post, has been shuttling between government and opposition leaders in a last-ditch effort to soften the bill, which the government has the votes to pass.
The opposition is led by establishment figures in business, law and the military, including its high-tech sector that has created previously unimaginable wealth in a once-poor country.
Supporters of the bill say it’s time that their political will — more religion in the public square, more Palestinian land in the West Bank annexed — triumphed without being stymied by unelected judges.
It’s a debate that has been brewing for some time, with the country’s deepening polarization seen in its inability to form stable coalitions resulting in repeat elections in recent years.
Markets, investments and the shekel have been hit by the controversy as Israel’s establishment figures warn that populist forces will threaten the entrepreneurial business culture. The government says democracy will be strengthened.
Either way, Israel is heading into unchartered territory. — Ethan Bronner [Bloomberg]
Protesters demonstrate for the 29th straight week against the judicial reform bill on Saturday in Tel Aviv. Photographer: Dar Yaskil/Getty Images
“A late swing in the final days of Spain’s election campaign allowed Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to deny his right-wing opponents a majority in parliament but leaves the country facing months of instability without a fully functioning government. Sanchez and People’s Party leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo both claimed victory, but it may well require a repeat election later this year before either can take office.” [Bloomberg]
“A record temperature of 50C (122F) was forecast for the Italian island of Sardinia today, as wildfires engulfed Greece and forced the evacuation of thousands of holidaymakers over the weekend. The extreme weather ravaging the Mediterranean is a sign of the impact of climate change now being witnessed across the Northern Hemisphere summer, with temperature records being shattered from the US to China.” [Bloomberg]
“The Communist Party’s Politburo, China’s top decision-making body led by President Xi Jinping, may fail to deliver big-bang stimulus for the weakening economy when it gathers as soon as this week. While senior officials typically don’t announce specific measures at these meetings, the policy tone and language of the statement will provide important clues on how Beijing will respond in coming months.” [Bloomberg]
“A new Turkish fighter pilot television drama that local media have dubbed a homegrown Top Gun isn’t just channeling Tom Cruise’s heroics in the cockpit. Like the 1986 American blockbuster, Free Sky was made in collaboration with real air force pilots and equipment used by the Turkish military. It’s an example of the state broadcaster’s bid to showcase Ankara’s expanding military footprint and arms exports as it flexes its diplomatic muscles from Syria and Libya to Ukraine.” [Bloomberg]
“The United Nations Command has started talks with North Korea’s military on the status of a US soldier who crossed the border last week, a top officer told reporters in Seoul.” [Bloomberg]
“Public support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida fell to its lowest since he took office, with rising prices and mistrust over the rollout of a national ID card helping to push down his rating.” [Bloomberg]
“Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could notify the US as soon as this week about her plan to pull Italy out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, sources say.” [Bloomberg]
“The mayor of one of Ecuador’s main Pacific ports was assassinated a month ahead of presidential elections as skyrocketing crime overwhelms the authorities” [Bloomberg].
“Ukraine needs its women refugees to come home, and soon. As Marc Champion and Daryna Krasnolutska report, almost a year and a half into Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine, the cost of resistance has been devastating. Failure to persuade any of the 2.8 million working-age women to return would cost Ukraine 10% of its annual pre-war gross domestic product in lost labor and demand, according to Bloomberg Economics. That’s $20 billion a year in a worst-case scenario, easily outweighing the European Union’s proposed four-year aid package for the country.” [Bloomberg]
Ukrainian refugees arrive at the Przemysl train station in Poland on March 1, 2022. Photographer: Alejandro Martínez Vélez/EURPRARC/Getty Images
A new morning-after pill can prevent sexually transmitted infections.
How it works: Doxycycline, a common antibiotic, has been shown to prevent syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia if taken within 72 hours of unprotected sex.
The problem: Some medical professionals worry that frequent use of the treatment could contribute to antibiotic resistance and the creation of new, drug-resistant superbugs.
Read this story at Washington Post
Republican war on colleges
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“Former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the GOP's 2024 frontrunners, both promise a crackdown on colleges.
Why it matters: It's a stark reflection of the right's growing skepticism of higher ed, Axios' Caitlin Owens reports.
What's happening: Republican complaints about colleges are related to broader concerns about "wokeness" and free speech.
But others hint at deeper questions about the value of college — and how to ensure a degree comes with an appropriate economic return.
In a video posted on his website last week, Trump pledged to ‘fire the radical Left accreditors’ and hire new ones ‘who will impose real standards on colleges.’
Some of those standards would include ‘protecting free speech,’ ‘removing all Marxist diversity, equity, and inclusion bureaucrats,’ and ‘implementing college entrance and exit exams to prove that students are actually learning and getting their money's worth.’
Last month, DeSantis sued the Biden administration over the college accreditation system, alleging it's unconstitutional, Inside Higher Ed reports. Students who receive federal aid must attend an accredited college or university.
The big picture: Republicans' confidence in higher education has plummeted over the last several years.
Gallup polling released this month found that Americans' confidence in higher education has fallen to 36%, compared to 57% in 2015. The sharpest reported drop in confidence was among Republicans.
Only 19% of Republicans say they have ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in higher education, compared to 56% who said the same eight years ago. Among Democrats, 59% expressed confidence, a 9-point decline from 2015.
In 2017 Gallup polling probing the reasons behind low confidence, the most frequent answer given by Republicans was that colleges are too liberal or political.
Between the lines: Higher education is likely to be a major motivating issue in '24.
Democrats were furious last month after the Supreme Court struck down college affirmative action + President Biden's original student loan forgiveness plan.
What to watch: Much of the Republican noise is political. But right-leaning think tanks — and some policymakers — are focused on making colleges more accountable for students' economic outcomes.
Accreditation reform could be where these goals intersect.” [Axios]
Musk vows to ban bird
“Elon Musk, tweeting overnight, told his 149 million followers he plans to swap Twitter's bird logo for an Art Deco rendering of the letter X as soon as tomorrow.
In a Twitter Spaces audio chat, he said a logo change ‘should have been done a long time ago.’
Musk is touting this flickering option as his pinned tweet:
Texas tries buoys as border barrier
Migrants try to enter the U.S. from Mexico as workers assemble buoys as a border barrier along the banks of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass, Texas, last week. Photo: Eric Gay/AP
“The Justice Department has notified Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) that it is pursuing legal action to remove a barrier of buoys in the Rio Grande that are a new escalation of Abbott's multibillion-dollar border-security drive.
‘This floating barrier poses a risk to navigation, as well as public safety, in the Rio Grande River, and it presents humanitarian concerns,’ says a DOJ letter obtained by Axios. ‘Thus, we intend to seek appropriate legal remedies, which may include seeking injunctive relief requiring the removal of obstructions or other structures in the Rio Grande River.’
Buoy barrier in the Rio Grande at Eagle Pass, Texas, last week. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Abbott tweeted: ‘Texas has the sovereign authority to defend our border ... We will see you in court, Mr. President.’” [Axios]
Germany v. Morocco joins competitive match-ups on World Cup Day 5
“Eight more teams including Germany and Brazil face-off in the 2023 FIFA World Cup on Monday – making Day 5 another session of late night or early morning viewing, depending on where you tune in. Italy, which is ranked No. 16 in the world, plays Argentina; Germany, ranked No. 2, starts its action against unranked Morocco and South Korea (No. 17) and Colombia (No. 25) play each other. Brazil, the No. 8-ranked team, will be the favorite against unranked Panama.” Read more at USA Today
Alexandra Popp (2nd L) of Germany heads to score her team's second goal during the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023 Group H match between Germany and Morocco at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium on July 24, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia.
Robert Cianflone, Getty Images
“Golf history: Brian Harman won his first major with the fewest putts of any British Open champion in 20 years.
Pop the Champagne: Jonas Vingegaard rode away with his second straight Tour de France.” [New York Times]
Box office has top weekend since 2019
Photos: Warner Bros. Pictures, Universal Pictures via AP
“"Barbie" is the biggest movie of the year, after bringing in a staggering $155 million from 4,243 opening-weekend locations in North America, Axios Media Trends expert Sara Fischer writes from Comscore projections.
Why it matters: The success proves films with a strong female lead can thrive at the box office, especially amid superhero fatigue.
Not only did "Barbie" post the biggest domestic opening ever for a non-superhero film or sequel, but it was also the biggest opening in history for a female director.
"Barbie" director Greta Gerwig previously directed indie films "Lady Bird" and "Little Women."
"Barbie" had a $155 million North American gross for the weekend, with an overall $337 million opening when international sales are included.
Christopher Nolan's biographical thriller "Oppenheimer" was a distant second, with a still-impressive $81 million domestic weekend haul.
"Oppenheimer" is expected to bring in a global total of $174 million for the weekend — well ahead of industry estimates.
Between the lines: The combined hits made this weekend one of the top domestic box office weekends of all time, per Comscore data.
The North American weekend box office hasn't seen that level of momentum since the debut of "Avengers: Endgame" in 2019.
Reality check: The Hollywood strikes make it unlikely any film will be able to bask in such pre-release marketing any time soon.
Even with this weekend's massive sales, the domestic box office is still down 20% from pre-pandemic levels.” [Axios]
”Lives Lived: Cheri Pies broke barriers with her 1985 book “Considering Parenthood: A Workbook for Lesbians,” a bible of the 1980s “gayby boom.” She died at 73.” [New York Times]