The Full Belmonte, 7/20/2023
Police vehicles are seen near the location of a shooting in Auckland, New Zealand.
New Zealand shooting
“A rare multiple shooting in the center of Auckland just hours before the opening of the Women's World Cup rattled the city as tens of thousands gathered to watch New Zealand play Norway in the first game of the tournament. Three people died in the attack — including the gunman — and several others were injured, according to New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. The gunman opened fire at a construction site in downtown Auckland, and the incident was believed to be related to his work there. New Zealand Police called the shooting an ‘isolated incident,’ and ‘not a national security risk.’” [CNN]
World's hottest month
Data: NOAA CFS/CFSR via Climate Reanalyzer, University of Maine; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios
“By the end of the week, it's likely that 15 days just this month have breached an unprecedented global temperature threshold, Axios extreme-weather expert Andrew Freedman writes.
Why it matters: Nearly every facet of the climate system is flashing red this summer — from record-low sea ice extent in Antarctica to hot tub-like ocean waters surrounding South Florida, and all-time high temperature records in countries on at least three continents.
Zoom out: All this is occurring as human-caused emissions of greenhouse gas continue to increase, despite the existence of ever-cheaper technologies to generate electricity.
What's happening: Already this month, 14 days have recorded surface air temperatures greater than 17°C (62.6°F) — spikes that have not been seen for roughly 125,000 years.
Wednesday marked the 17th straight day with global temperatures hotter than any prior days on record.
Several more records are all but certain to fall in coming weeks:
July will be the hottest month on Earth since instrument records began in the 19th century.
We're on track for the world's hottest summer ever.
By the numbers: The overnight minimum temperature yesterday morning in Phoenix was a sweltering 97°F, an all-time high. Tomorrow, the city is forecast to have its record 20th straight day with a high of 110°F or greater.
Austin has had 10 straight days with highs of 105°F or greater, an unprecedented streak.
Threat level: A study in the journal Nature Medicine found severe heat waves in Europe last summer killed as many as 61,000 people.
Former NASA climate scientist James Hansen, who rose to prominence by warning the Senate and the American people about the dangers of climate change in the sizzling American summer of 1988, told The Guardian: ‘We are headed wittingly into the new reality — we knew it was coming.’” [Axios]
As the planet warms, infectious diseases could spike
“Across the planet, animals and the diseases they carry are shifting locations as temperatures rise. Ticks, mosquitos, bacteria, algae, and even fungi are also on the move, shifting their historical ranges to adapt to climatic conditions that are evolving at an unprecedented pace. Read more.
Why this matters:
Deforestation, mining, agriculture, and urban sprawl are taking bites out of the globe’s remaining wild areas, contributing to biodiversity loss occurring at a rate unprecedented in human history. Populations of species that humans rely on for sustenance are getting pushed into smaller slices of habitat, creating hotspots for diseases to jump from animals to humans.
Cases of disease linked to mosquitos, ticks and fleas tripled in the U.S. between 2004 and 2016, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Research shows more than half of all the pathogens known to cause disease in humans can be made worse by climate change.” [AP News]
© The Associated Press / Charlie Riedel | Former President Trump at a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa, on July 7.
GOP pauses to gauge Trump’s legal jeopardy
“Former GOP presidential nominee Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah tweeted a video homage about hot dogs. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) went deep into objections about ‘Chinese propaganda’ in the movie ‘Barbie.’ And GOP presidential candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is trying to defeat former President Trump to win his party’s nomination, leaned into an equivocal script in reaction to news of the former president’s mounting legal jeopardy (The Hill).
What the three men have in common: past or current misgivings about Trump.
“He should have come out more forcefully,” DeSantis conceded, referring to Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021, before and during the insurrection at the Capitol.
Asked by a reporter whether Trump’s behavior and potential conviction should be disqualifying as he seeks a White House return, the governor declined to answer.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), a Trump critic-turned-ally, joined DeSantis in saying any potential criminal charges against the former president for allegedly seeking to overturn the 2020 election would be evidence of political bias at the Justice Department
“I think the American public is tired of this,” McCarthy said Tuesday. “They want to have equal justice, and the idea that they utilize this to go after those who politically disagree with them is wrong.”
Is Trump on a slippery slope after receiving a target letter from prosecutors suggesting he may be criminally indicted — again? Some GOP strategists say the former president’s legal troubles could kneecap him against President Biden, if both are nominees for their respective parties next year (The Hill).
The Associated Press: Jan. 6 charges against Trump would add to his mounting legal peril as he campaigns for the presidency.
Some Republicans warn that potential criminal charges for the third time in 2023 could take a toll on the leading Republican in the race. While Trump’s standing rose in polls after each of two previous criminal arraignments this year, some GOP rivals are more willing to criticize Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, which has been the subject of hearings, video evidence and witness statements about Jan. 6, an impeachment trial and Senate acquittal, plus hundreds of successful Justice Department prosecutions of defendants who played roles in the Jan. 6 riots.
The former president has pleaded not guilty to all charges against him.
The New York Times, citing multiple sources, reports the Justice Department cited three statutes in its recent target letter to Trump, including a Civil War-era law enacted to take aim at whites who tried to prevent Blacks from voting in the South. It is now used more broadly to prosecute voting fraud conspiracies. That statute makes it a crime to ‘conspire to injure, oppress, threaten, or intimidate any person’ in the ‘free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured to him by the Constitution or laws of the United States.’ Two other laws noted by the government in the letter to Trump and his lawyers: conspiracy to defraud the government and obstruction of an official proceeding.
GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie, a former New Jersey governor and former prosecutor, predicted ‘short-term gain, long-term pain’ for Trump as a result of the allegations he already faces and may confront in the days ahead.
‘[What] we should be focused on here is Donald Trump's conduct and whether or not that conduct is appropriate for somebody to be sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office,’ Christie said Wednesday during a CNN interview. ‘I say it's not.’
The Hill’s Niall Stanage unpacks Trump’s most significant legal tripwires.
The Washington Post: Need a reminder of the facts behind charges against Trump, and what comes next? In New York, Fulton County, Ga., and Washington, D.C., he’s the focus of criminal investigations.
2024 roundup: New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu announced Wednesday he will not seek reelection next year. Sununu, a Trump critic, briefly considered and opted not to make a 2024 White House bid (The Hill). …DeSantis has a plan to rip ‘wokeness’ out of the U.S. military (The Hill). … Candidate Christie told Bloomberg’s “Sound On” program during an interview on Wednesday that if elected president, he would not seek to roll back the state and local tax deduction limit known as SALT, which has been much criticized in high-tax states such as New York and New Jersey. … DeSantis initially hired campaign manager Generra Peck to help him win his gubernatorial reelection and she’s steering his presidential bid (Miami Herald). Why are some DeSantis donors urging the governor to bring on a new campaign chief (NBC News)? … The Hill’s Brooke Migdon reports on Texas House candidate Julie Johnson, who could become the first openly LGBTQ person elected to Congress from the Lone Star state.
The Hill: A federal judge denied Trump's request for a new trial in the E. Jean Carroll civil defamation case. Trump has been ordered to pay $5 million in damages. The presidential candidate also faces another lawsuit filed by Carroll — set to go to trial in January — in which he is accused of defaming the writer when she initially came forward with her story.
Arizona Republic/AZ Central: Arizona's fake electors and the Arizona Senate's hand recount of 2.1 million ballots are under investigation by the state attorney general's office, which is looking at a range of Republican-led efforts to overturn results of the 2020 election.
The Hill: Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), during a GOP-led hearing on Wednesday, displayed posters with graphic sexual images from Hunter Biden’s former laptop as she asked questions about potential tax
The Hill: A No Labels third-party drive into the electorate’s political middle would likely hurt Biden’s reelection chances, say some GOP senators and Democrats. A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday underscored that possibility: nearly half of those surveyed said they would consider voting for a third-party presidential candidate in 2024” [The Hill]
First public testimony of two IRS agents assigned to Hunter Biden case
“Two whistleblowers provided Congress with their side of the story from the yearslong investigation into Hunter Biden, who has become a lightning rod for Republican allegations about a two-tiered justice system in the United States. Speaking to leaders of three powerful House committees, who held a joint hearing Wednesday, Internal Revenue Service employees Greg Shapley and Joseph Ziegler − who was previously known as "whistleblower x" − alleged U.S. Justice Department officials slow walked the investigation into President Joe Biden's youngest son.” Read more at USA Today
IRS Supervisory Special Agent Gary Shapley, left, and IRS Criminal Investigator Joseph Ziegler, are sworn in at a House Oversight Committee meeting on July 19, 2023 in Washington
Jasper Colt, USA TODAY
A bill from Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D., N.Y.) and Josh Hawley (R., Mo.). includes stiff penalties for government officials who violate the rules on stock ownership.
PHOTO: JEENAH MOON/REUTERS; DREW ANGERER/GETTY IMAGES
Two senators are set to introduce legislation to bar executive-branch members and lawmakers from owning stock in individual companies, even in blind trusts.
“The bill from Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D., N.Y.) and Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) would still allow the president, vice president, members of Congress, Capitol Hill aides and employees of the executive branch to own mutual funds and broad industry and index funds. Polling shows broad public support for such a ban. The legislation comes after a WSJ investigation, which found that many top executive-branch employees owned stocks in companies their agencies regulate. Elsewhere in Washington, antitrust authorities issued new proposed-merger guidelines, which could help the government’s efforts to block deals.
Microsoft and Activision Blizzard Still Committed to $75 Billion Merger (Read) [Wall Street Journal]
A DNA variation that affects the immune system can boost a person’s odds of avoiding Covid symptoms, a new study found.
“The T cells of some people with the HLA-B*15:01 variation can find and kill the virus without having seen it before, researchers said. This is because the part of the virus their T cells home in on is similar enough to common coronaviruses they have already encountered, the study found. People with a copy of the genetic variation were more than twice as likely to avoid falling ill with Covid than people without it and eight times more likely if they had two copies.” [Wall Street Journal]
Stanford campus. Photo: Ben Margot/AP
“Stanford President Marc Tessier-Lavigne will step down, effective Aug. 31, after an investigation found that he had failed to correct mistakes in widely cited scientific papers and that there was data-fudging at labs he oversaw. Tessier-Lavigne will stay on at Stanford as a tenured professor in the biology department, The Washington Post notes. Go deeper with Theo Baker of The Stanford Daily, who broke news about issues with Tessier-Lavigne's research last fall.” [Axios]
“Wesleyan University announced today that it would end legacy admissions, a practice that favors relatives of alumni and has attracted criticism in recent years.” Go deeper. [Axios]
Trump
“Legal experts believe a third indictment is imminent for former President Donald Trump and could be announced soon. Trump said on Tuesday that he'd been named as a target of special counsel Jack Smith's investigation into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and the events leading up to the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Receiving such a notification is a procedural step that often leads to an indictment. Trump indicated that the target letter he received on Sunday gave him four days to take up an option to testify. Legal custom suggests that an indictment could come at any time after that.” [CNN]
Tornado damage
“A massive tornado in North Carolina severely damaged a Pfizer plant and several other structures, shut down a major interstate and injured more than a dozen people Wednesday afternoon. The tornado left EF-3 damage in some areas, with winds estimated at 150 mph, the National Weather Service said, as it tore through Nash County, around 45 miles northeast of Raleigh. Photos of the damage show structures flattened and roofs crumpled like paper. The tornado also toppled trees onto Interstate 95, temporarily shutting down the highway in both directions. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said that first responders are helping to clear roads and provide other aid.” [CNN]
Texas women, doctors ask Austin judge to clarify exceptions to state's abortion ban
“Proceedings are expected to continue through Thursday in front of state District Judge Jessica Mangrum in a hearing that represents a major legal test to the state’s abortion ban. In the first day of the hearing, Texas women who were denied abortions testified in a court Wednesday of carrying babies they knew would not survive and continuing pregnancies that put their health in worsening danger. Their detailed accounts in a crowded Austin courtroom were often emotional. At one point, the judge called a recess when a woman whose daughter died within hours of birth became ill and overcome on the witness stand. Read more at USA Today
Amanda Zurawski (C) speaks during a press conference outside the Travis County Courthouse on July 19, 2023 in Austin, Texas.
SUZANNE CORDEIRO, AFP via Getty Images
Israel's president addresses criticism in Congressional address
“Israeli President Isaac Herzog pushed back against criticism of Israel from some progressive Democrats, after the lawmakers vowed to protest his address to Congress and sparked a firestorm in recent days. ‘I am not oblivious to criticism among friends, including some expressed by respected members of this House,’ Herzog said during his speech on Wednesday. Republicans − and fellow Democrats − have targeted some members of Congress' left flank over their criticism of Israel's human rights record. Several progressive Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., announced they would boycott Herzog's address over Israel's treatment of Palestinians. Read more at USA Today
Vice President Kamala Harris and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. listen as Isaac Herzog, President of Israel, addresses a Joint Meeting of Congress on July 19, 2023.
Jack Gruber, USA TODAY
Ukraine begins firing controversial U.S.-provided cluster munitions at Russian forces
Ukraine is firing the munitions at Russian troops to break up fortified positions in occupied southeast Ukraine, which have slowed Kyiv's summer offensive, Ukrainian officials told The Washington Post. The cluster munitions, which are banned in more than 120 countries, arrived in Ukraine last week following an order by President Biden that drew widespread criticism.
Read more at Washington Post
By Adam Taylor
with Sammy Westfall
‘Disturbing’ decline in global nuclear security, watchdog says
This July 16, 1945, photo shows an aerial view after the first atomic explosion at Trinity Test Site, N.M. (AP)
“Nuclear security risks are rising for the first time in a decade, according to an annual index released Tuesday by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington-based watchdog nonprofit that looks beyond the well-known nuclear threats such as weapons proliferation, and toward less widely considered problems, such as the storage of weapons-usable uranium that could be exploited by terrorist groups or the safety of nuclear sites during conflicts.
The report marks the first time that the organization’s Nuclear Security Index, in an attempt to piece together a big picture of the global nuclear threat, finds that security had gotten worse since the dataset’s origin in 2012. The report also comes amid spiraling geopolitical tension over conflict near nuclear sites in Ukraine and stalling efforts at nonproliferation and international regulation.
‘This diminishing commitment to reducing nuclear risks is deeply disturbing,’ Ernest J. Moniz, chief executive of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and the former U.S. secretary of energy in the Obama administration, writes in an introduction to the index. The world is ‘unraveling hard-fought progress on nuclear security dating back to the end of the Cold War,’ he says.
The report coincides with a renewed moment of interest in nuclear Armageddon, prompted by talk of the weapons in the context of the war in Ukraine, and in popular culture, including this week’s release of the film “Oppenheimer” — a historical drama depicting U.S. scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer’s quest to become ‘father of the atomic bomb,’ and to shape its impact on the world.
Recent events in Ukraine have also added to the drama. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly warned that Russian forces are planning a ‘terrorist act’ at Europe’s largest atomic power station, Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which has been occupied since early in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.
The renewed concern is understandable: Some Kremlin officials have openly suggested that Russia could use some form of nuclear weapon if pushed too far in the conflict, while Russian troops left the infamous site of a Soviet-era nuclear disaster, Chernobyl, in a dangerous state of ill repair after a months-long period of occupation and looting last year.
Such risks are only the surface indications of the deteriorating situation, however. The Nuclear Threat Index reported that stockpiles of separated plutonium are growing rapidly in the civilian spher
Separated plutonium, along with highly enriched uranium, is a type of nuclear material that can be used to make a weapon. The index found that finds that ‘since 2019, global inventories of separated civil plutonium have increased by 17,000 kilograms [almost 19 tons], enough material for more than 2,100 nuclear weapons,’ mostly due to reprocessing for commercial nuclear plants.
Britain, France, India, Japan and Russia all have high levels of separated plutonium due to its use in nuclear power plants, while the United States also has a high supply due to dismantled nuclear weapons, the index found.
The report also pointed to severe failings in the protection of weapons-usable nuclear material, with ‘little progress’ made since 2020 toward improving security and threat prevention in counties that had it. More than a third of countries and areas with nuclear facilities were found to have no regulatory measures in place for protecting those facilities during ‘a natural or human-caused disaster’ — despite the recent experiences in Ukraine.
Iran and North Korea, two countries at the center of geopolitical standoffs over their nuclear programs, were ranked last in the index for their ability to protect nuclear sites from theft or sabotage. The report found that risk environments had worsened in 12 of the 22 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials, largely due to worsening political instability and rising illicit activity by nonstate actors.
There are some areas where security efforts are improving. The index finds that many countries in the global south have improved in their rankings, perhaps showing that nuclear security is less about wealth and more about effort and attention.
Recent years have seen a sustained movement away from the use of highly enriched uranium, one of the materials that could be used to create a nuclear weapon (most countries have switched to using low-enriched uranium, though in 2021 Iran became the first country in almost two decades to produce it — another worrying data point).
The report points to the importance of the International Atomic Energy Agency, a 65-year-old U.N.-linked watchdog organization that appears to be becoming only more relevant. Under the proactive leadership of Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, the IAEA has played a high-profile role in Ukraine, where it has tried to ensure nuclear safety, while it continues to play big roles in North Korea, Iran and in the continuing aftermath of Japan’s 2011 Fukushima disaster.
But the index notes that support for the agency’s role in nuclear security was ‘inconsistent, even as demands for the IAEA’s attention and resources grow and global risks evolve.’ Grossi has come under pressure from all sides in Ukraine, with Zelensky apparently rejecting his calls to make the Zaporizhzhia power plant a demilitarized zone, according to leaked U.S. documents.
A remarkable aspect of the story of the atomic bomb is that its earliest originators were deeply devoted to consideration of its existential implications for humankind in the decades and centuries to come. Oppenheimer himself was an early voice in the debate over nuclear policy, and an advocate for inspections, limits, openness and other approaches that did not gain traction until after the Cold War arms race had barreled out of control. His convictions cost him dearly in an era of McCarthyite suspicions.
In a 1953 essay for Foreign Affairs, Oppenheimer augured that a time would soon come for the ‘serious discussion of the regulation of armaments,’ by which time ‘there will have been by then a vast accumulation of materials for atomic weapons, and a troublesome margin of uncertainty with regards to its accounting — very troublesome indeed if we still live with the vestiges of the suspicion, hostility and secretiveness of the world of today.’
As the index shows, the world’s governments have a long path ahead toward securing one of humanity’s most calamitous weapons.” [Washington Post]
“The UK Conservatives are in a mess. We’re about to see just how bad it is or if there is a ray of hope on the horizon.
Over the past year, national opinion polls have consistently shown Rishi Sunak’s Tories trailing the opposition Labour Party by a double-digit margin ahead of a general election due by January 2025.
While the British public views the premier more positively than his party, his popularity rating sank to its lowest level since he became prime minister in October. Sunak’s five key pledges, including expanding the economy and stopping asylum seekers crossing the English Channel, all look trickier to meet than when he announced them.
Overall, there’s profound voter dissatisfaction after 13 years of Tory government, which hasn’t resolved deep-rooted problems in the National Health Service. A new wave of strikes began today on the rail network and the London Underground.
Then there’s the ongoing drama after the scandal-ridden premiership of Boris Johnson, who left office more than 10 months ago.
Three special elections are being held today, including ones triggered by the decision of Johnson and a close ally to quit their Parliamentary seats. The Conservative majority in all of them is in the thousands, but expectations of winning any are low.
Still, there are glimmers of hope for Sunak. Voters aren’t inspired by his Labour opponent, Keir Starmer, whose favorability rating is also negative and falling.
And the premier received two pieces of good news this week. Inflation dropped to the lowest in 15 months, boosting hopes that the worst cost-of-living crisis in generations is easing. The UK also secured a £4 billion ($5.2 billion) investment in a battery plant by Tata Group, fending off competition from Spain.
If Sunak pulls off a win in one or more of the votes, he may head into Parliament’s summer recess with the smallest of skips in his step.” [Bloomberg]
— Alex Morales
Junior doctors protest in Manchester on June 15. Photographer: Mary Turner/Bloomberg
“Russia’s military could attack civilian shipping in the Black Sea as part of its effort to target Ukrainian grain facilities, the US warned, citing new intelligence. The Defense Ministry in Moscow said that, from today, it would consider all ships headed to Ukrainian ports as potentially carrying military cargo. Wheat prices rose following the biggest daily surge in a decade yesterday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t attend next month’s summit of BRICS leaders in South Africa, avoiding the risk of possible arrest for alleged war crimes under a warrant from the International Criminal Court.” [Bloomberg]
“China’s Communist Party and the government issued a rare joint statement yesterday with 31 measures to improve conditions for businesses, including pledges to treat private companies the same as state-owned enterprises and to consult more with entrepreneurs before drafting policy. While the move won the backing of some high-profile business leaders, it fell flat with investors.
The US and China need more time to ‘break new ground in their shared mission to combat global warming, US climate envoy John Kerry said in an interview after days of talks in Beijing ended without sweeping new commitments.” [Bloomberg]
“Political upheaval appears to be in store for Thailand after parliament voted to bar Pita Limjaroenrat, whose party won the May general election, from running for prime minister. His eight-party pro-democracy coalition still has a shot at ending nearly a decade of military-backed rule by nominating a new candidate before assembly convenes to vote again on July 27 to choose a new premier.” [Bloomberg]
“The conservative frontrunner in Spain’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, is the center right’s big hope to oust Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and add momentum to the conservative shift in European politics. But, as Alonso Soto writes, he will almost certainly have to court support from the anti-immigrant Vox party to rule, opening the door for the far right to join a government for the first time since the end of Francisco Franco’s 36-year dictatorship in 1975.” [Bloomberg]
Feijoo’s rallies emphasize him as being safe and secure. Photographer: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg
“Brazil is digging in its heels against the global push to phase out combustion-engine cars. An updated auto-industry policy, due as soon as next month, will plot a path to reduce reliance on cars that run only on gasoline, but Brazil’s most popular models — flexible-fuel vehicles capable of running on biofuel produced from sugar cane that are cleaner than pure gasoline engines — won’t be affected.” [Bloomberg]
“Thousands of Peruvians took to the streets yesterday to demand the resignation of President Dina Boluarte, as her approval ratings dip to record lows and the economy reels.
Protesters stormed and set fire to the Swedish embassy in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, today in response to the burning of the Koran in Sweden. Stockholm said all of its staff were safe.
A video of two women being paraded naked by a group of men in Manipur has elicited the first public condemnation from Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding the ethnic violence that has engulfed the relatively remote Indian state.” [Bloomberg]
“Extreme weather is a threat to cultural sites all over the world, but northern India’s latest monsoon may turn out to be positive for the Taj Mahal. Flooding from the Yamuna river reached the World Heritage Site’s walls yesterday, the closest waters have come to the monument in 45 years. As Sreeja Biswas writes, while its white marble exterior may suffer minimal damage, the heightened water level will likely raise the moisture content of the structure’s wooden foundation, increasing its life span.” [Bloomberg]
The flooded banks of the Yamuna river along the Taj Mahal in Agra. Photographer: Pawan Sharma/AFP/Getty Images
July 20, 2023
Good morning. We’re covering the rise of piecemeal work, the Stanford president’s resignation and the Women’s World Cup.
A Ford assembly line in Dearborn, Mich., in 1927.The New York Times
The ‘fracturing’
“Universities devote a smaller share of faculty slots to tenured professorships than in the past — and hire more adjunct professors who have little chance for promotion. Law firms employ relatively fewer partners and more lawyers who are paid less. And Hollywood hires fewer writers to participate in the entire production process, relegating more of them to piecemeal work.
This trend is part of what my colleague Noam Scheiber calls ‘the fracturing of work,’ and it is a central issue in the Hollywood writers’ strike that is now 11 weeks old. As one historian explained, there is increasingly a ‘tiered work force of prestige workers and lesser workers.’ The arrangement has its roots in manufacturing, Noam writes in a story that just published:
At the turn of the 20th century, automobiles were produced largely in artisanal fashion by small teams of highly skilled ‘all around’ mechanics who helped assemble a variety of components and systems — ignition, axles, transmission.
By 1914, Ford Motor had repeatedly divided and subdivided these jobs, spreading more than 150 men across a vast assembly line. The workers typically performed a few simple tasks over and over.
Specialization does have big advantages. Companies can complete tasks more efficiently and inexpensively. But workers sometimes pay the price in the form of lower wages and less responsibility, especially if they are not unionized and lack bargaining leverage.
The writer and actor Bob Odenkirk on a picket line in May.Hilary Swift for The New York Times
Piketty’s rule
Screenwriters — who are unionized — have gone on strike in an attempt to use their collective leverage to avoid becoming Hollywood’s equivalent of adjunct professors. Until the past decade, writers not only wrote scripts but also remained on set during filming and participated in the process. They offered thoughts about costumes and props and would tweak the script as the cast acted it out.
The producer Michael Schur has compared the job to an apprenticeship. Schur was a writer on “The Office,” and the experience helped him learn how to create and run his own shows. Later, he did so, with “Parks and Recreation” and “The Good Place.”
Today, only one or two writers remain with a show through production, while others produce scripts and are then dropped from the process. ‘The making of television is very compartmentalized now,’ John Koblin, who covers the television business for The Times, told me. ‘The writers write. The actors act. The directors direct.’ (John went into more detail as a guest on the NPR show “Fresh Air.”)
As a result, writers’ pay has stagnated even as streaming has led to a boom in the number of television shows. Studio executives say that they need to hold down costs in response to declining revenue from cable television and movie theaters. And those challenges are real, but the executives also seem to be using the shift to streaming as an excuse to change the economics of their industry in ways that are less favorable to many employees.
The trend is a microcosm of larger developments. Nationwide, the pay of the bottom 90 percent of earners has trailed well behind economic growth in recent decades (as you can see in these Times charts). Most Americans have not received their share of the economy’s growing bounty, while a relatively small share have experienced very large income gains.
That’s not shocking. As the economist Thomas Piketty has explained, inequality tends to rise in a capitalist economy, partly because the wealthy have more political power and economic leverage than the middle class and poor do. But history also shows that rising inequality is not inevitable.
There are forces that can push in the other direction. Rising educational attainment can give more people the skills to become specialists. Taxes on top incomes and large fortunes can redistribute wealth. Labor unions can give workers the bargaining power to prevent wage stagnation.
Hollywood writers — and, as of last week, actors too — are now trying to make such a push against inequality.” [New York Times]
Photo: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP
“At age 100, Henry Kissinger flew to Beijing for a meeting yesterday with the ruling Communist Party's diplomat Wang Yi (above). Kissinger met Tuesday with Defense Minister Li Shangfu.
Why it matters: Kissinger is in the history books for overtures to China when he was Secretary of State, including a secret trip in 1971 — 52 years ago. The private visit comes amid strain between the superpowers.
State Department spokesman Matt Miller said Kissinger ‘was there under his own volition, not acting on behalf of the United States government.’” [Axios]
UPS
“Around 340,000 UPS workers may go on strike at the end of the month unless an agreement on employees' contracts can be quickly reached between the company and union members. Negotiations are set to resume next week after the two sides walked away from the bargaining table earlier this month. Both sides say about 95% of the deal has already been agreed upon but a few key issues remain open. UPS agreed to put air-conditioning in new vehicles and retrofit old ones with fans. They also agreed to make updates to their wage system but there are still disagreements about worker pay. If the strike goes forward, it could cost the US economy $7.1 billion — making it the costliest work stoppage ever in US history, economic experts say.” [CNN]
Netflix
“As writers and actors continue to strike against movie studios and streaming platforms, Netflix is celebrating a smash earnings report. The streaming giant on Wednesday said it added nearly 6 million paid subscribers during the three months ending in June, bringing its total to more than 238 million globally. Netflix attributes the gain to its crackdown on password sharing which prompted a boost in signups. The results come at a pivotal moment for Netflix as the streamer looks to boost revenue by restricting password sharing and introducing an ad-supported subscription option while also contending with strikes that have brought content production to an absolute halt. Netflix and other streaming platforms have acknowledged the strikes could impact their future slate of original shows and movies — but many say that their existing stockpiles of shows and movies can withstand the strikes for now.” [CNN]
”Researchers are taking a radical approach to fight malaria, a disease carried by mosquitoes that kills hundreds of thousands yearly. Rather than trying to control mosquito populations, some scientists want to genetically engineer them to be inhospitable to the malaria pathogen, making them allies in the fight against the disease. But environmentalists are troubled by the idea of releasing genetically engineered animals into the wild.” [NPR]
Stanford’s president will resign after flaws were found in his research.
“The details: Marc Tessier-Lavigne failed to correct mistakes in old scientific papers, and he oversaw labs with an ‘unusual frequency’ of data manipulations, an inquiry found.
Why it matters: It’s a dramatic fall from the top of one of the world’s most respected schools. It also raises wider questions about data manipulation in academic research.
Elsewhere in academia: Wesleyan University announced it will end legacy admissions.”
Read this story at Washington Post
A player in California won the $1 billion Powerball jackpot.
“The details: The winning numbers in last night’s drawing were 7, 10, 11, 13, 24 and red Powerball 24. The lucky ticket was sold at a mini market in Los Angeles.
The prize: Either $558.1 million in cash up front or $1.08 billion through annual payments over 30 years. It’s only the third time the jackpot has run into the billions.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Cole Saladino for The New York Times
“A highbrow hot dog: The most talked-about dish in New York this year is the $29 hot dog at Mischa, the restaurant critic Pete Wells writes. The dog is about nine inches long, with a natural casing that snaps and a filling of emulsified brisket with pork fat. It comes with inventive condiments.
‘Considered as a public statement, the $29 hot dog is obnoxious, a flagrantly expensive lowbrow-highbrow stunt out of the Jeff Koons catalog,’ Wells writes. ‘If you can forget all this and just eat it, though, the $29 hot dog is glorious.’” [New York Times]
”Northwestern’s culture: Players were hazed for years at the football team’s preseason camp, including through naked pull-ups and being forced to squeeze past soaped-up teammates to reach the showers.” [New York Times]
“Cementing victory: Jonas Vingegaard was on the brink of repeating as the Tour de France champion after opening up a nearly insurmountable lead in the final days of cycling’s premier race, the BBC reports.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Kevin Mitnick was once one of the most wanted computer criminals in the U.S. After prison time, he became a security consultant and public speaker. He died at 59.” [New York Times]