The Full Belmonte, 7/12/23
NATO declined to offer Ukraine a clear path to membership, instead offering financial and political support that it said would boost Kyiv’s bid to join.
“Some NATO members have balked at providing a timeline or checklist for joining. President Biden has said that Ukraine isn’t ready for membership and that offering specifics risked conflict with Russia, potentially even a world war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called NATO an aggressor and blamed it for causing the war in Ukraine. Kyiv considers membership crucial to stopping Moscow’s future attacks after the current hostilities end. More than 15 years ago, the bloc first offered Ukraine a promise of membership.” [Wall Street Journal]
Devastating floods keep the Northeast on alert
Scott Eisen/Getty Images
“Tuesday, 4 million people in parts of New York and New England faced flood risks after days of torrential rain inundated the northeastern US. One person died while attempting to escape rising waters with their dog. [USA Today]
More than 5 inches of rain fell in Vermont’s capital Montpelier Monday. State authorities have rescued 100 stranded residents. [CNN / Nouran Salahieh and Lauren Mascarenhas]
City officials closed downtown Montpelier until at least 3 pm Tuesday as a dam neared capacity for the first time and threatened to unleash more flooding into the city. [New York Times]
The White House declared a state of emergency to free up federal funding for Vermont. Conditions improved Tuesday but officials urged residents to avoid floodwaters and heed warnings. [VTDigger / Sarah Mearhoff]
In recent days, the US, India, China, Turkey, and Japan have seen catastrophic flooding as pollution and climate change warm the atmosphere and make extreme rainfall ‘the new abnormal.’ [Vox / Li Zhou]” [Vox
Answers at the bottom of a lake
A Crawford Lake core sample at the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto earlier this year. Photo: Lance McMillan/Toronto Star via Getty Images
“Sediment at the bottom of a lake in Ontario, Canada, contains key indicators that the world has entered a new epoch called the Anthropocene, scientists announced today.
The big picture: As we reported this morning, researchers say humans, rather than a natural phenomenon like an asteroid strike, pushed the planet into this new phase of rapid transformation, Axios managing editor Alison Snyder writes.
How it works: A key element for designating an epoch is a ‘golden spike’ — a place on the planet where evidence of the start of a global change is found etched into rock, sediment or ice.
Since 2019, teams of scientists have been studying sites around the world — from a lake in the Toronto suburbs and a coral reef in Australia to peatland in Poland and the floor of the Baltic Sea — in search of a location that best captures a permanent record of the alterations humans have made to the planet as a whole.
At Crawford Lake, soot, logging debris, pollen and other particles that carry fingerprints of human activities drop to the lake bottom.
History in the making: The International Commission on Stratigraphy and then the International Union of Geological Sciences will ultimately vote to decide whether the Anthropocene should be designated as a new epoch.
Share this story.” [Axios]
Abortion-rights activists protest outside the Supreme Court in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File)
AP-NORC POLL
Few US adults support full abortion bans, AP-NORC poll finds
“Most U.S. adults, including those living in states with the deepest limits on abortion, want it to be legal at least through the initial stages of pregnancy, a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds. The poll was conducted one year after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, undoing a nationwide right to abortion that had been in place for nearly 50 years. Read more.
What the survey shows:
The poll found that 73% of all U.S. adults, including 58% of those in states with the deepest bans, believe abortion should be allowed at six weeks of pregnancy.
Overall, about two-thirds of Americans say abortion should generally be legal, but only about a quarter say it should always be legal and only about 1 in 10 say it should always be illegal.” [AP News]
U.S. NEWS
Larry Nassar stabbing underscores problems at Bureau of Prisons
“The recent stabbing of disgraced former sports doctor Larry Nassar at a federal penitentiary in Florida underscores the persistent problems at the federal Bureau of Prisons. Despite the Biden administration’s vow to fix the broken system, the agency has continued to struggle with violence, understaffing, abuse and an inability to keep even its highest profile prisoners safe. Read more.
Why this matters:
Nassar’s stabbing comes just weeks after “Unabomber” Ted Kaczynski’s suicide at a North Carolina federal medical center and amid lingering fallout from Jeffrey Epstein’s 2019 jail suicide.
Facing increased scrutiny in the wake of an ongoing AP investigation that has uncovered a myriad of scandals, Bureau of Prisons Director Colette Peters has pledged to overhaul recruiting practices and end systemic abuse and corruption. Changing the culture of the massive agency — the Justice Department’s largest with more than 30,000 employees, 158,000 inmates and an annual budget of about $8 billion — has proved exceedingly difficult.” [AP News]
NATO Disappoints Kyiv
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and first lady Olena Zelenska stand together during the Raising the Flag for Ukraine NATO event in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11.Omar Marques/Getty Images
“Day one of NATO’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, proved a big disappointment for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had hoped to see the alliance leaders agree on a clear timeline for his country to join the bloc during this week’s two-day annual meeting. Unfortunately for Zelensky, the member states on Tuesday issued a joint communique saying Kyiv could join only when ‘conditions are met’—which could take months or years depending on how long Russia’s war in Ukraine continues—but declined to provide a specific timeline.
NATO’s refusal to set a timeframe for Ukraine’s membership is ‘unprecedented and absurd,’ Zelensky wrote on Twitter before the summit. He added that having discussions about Ukraine’s NATO future without Zelensky in attendance was disrespectful and gives Russia motivation to ‘continue its terror.’
But Tuesday’s decision is a diplomatic win for the United States. Although U.S. President Joe Biden signaled his support for future Ukrainian membership, White House spokesperson John Kirby argued that the alliance could not accept Kyiv’s accession at this time without putting NATO at war with Russia. This put the United States at odds with some other NATO members, particularly those on the alliance’s eastern flank, which are more bullish on having Ukraine join. Ultimately, Washington’s position won the day.
Despite disagreements over Ukraine’s membership, military aid to Ukraine was a key area of unity among member states. On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris would supply Kyiv with long-range missiles, emphasizing the importance of sending ‘a message of support for Ukraine, of NATO unity, and of determination that Russia cannot and must not win this war.’ The United Kingdom followed suit by agreeing to continue providing Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which defense experts argue may be crucial to Ukraine’s counteroffensive strategy.
Apart from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the summit’s other major focus centered on defense spending obligations. Last Friday, Reuters reported that bloc members had agreed to make the defense spending target of 2 percent of a country’s GDP a required minimum to combat growing Russian aggression. Currently, only 11 NATO members are set to meet that obligation this year. To demonstrate their commitment, both Norway and Germany have agreed to increase their defense spending to the 2 percent minimum. Norway also agreed to provide $960 million in military aid to Ukraine this year.” [Foreign Policy]n Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
“Day of disruption. Thousands of Israelis took to the streets on Tuesday following the first Knesset reading of a controversial legal reform bill put forward as part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to weaken the nation’s judicial system. Demonstrators blocked highways leading into Israel’s largest cities, lined beaches along the Mediterranean Sea, and sparked chaos at Ben Gurion Airport. Calling the nationwide rallies a day of ‘disruption and resistance,’ the protesters are hoping it’s not too late to stop the legislation; in Israel, a bill must be read and voted on three times for it to be passed.
The bill in question would throw out the country’s ‘reasonableness standard,’ removing the Israeli Supreme Court’s ability to block government actions it deems legally or ethically questionable. Netanyahu aims to pass a raft of bills that would give his government greater power over judicial decisions, including the nomination of judges. The legislation could also help Netanyahu wriggle out of a series of corruption charges brought against him. The next two readings are yet to be scheduled, but lawmakers hope to complete them before the Knesset goes into recess at the end of July.” [Foreign Policy]
“China is flexing its military might around Taiwan again as campaigning for the presidency on the democratically run island starts to heat up.
The People’s Liberation Army sent 32 warplanes into sensitive areas around Taiwan today. That was the most since April, when Beijing ordered large-scale military drills in the area to show its displeasure with President Tsai Ing-wen meeting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the US.
While the PLA flies jets near Taiwan nearly every day, the size of the latest sortie is likely intended to send a message to Taipei about its contacts with foreign officials.
Key Reading:
China Warplanes Make Biggest Taiwan Incursion in Three Months
TikTok Content Under Scrutiny With Taiwan Election Heating Up
China Slams Bulgari For Not Showing Taiwan As Part of Country
Taiwan Candidate Says Its Presidents Should Visit White House
Tsai’s government has recently received groups of lawmakers from the US and Canada, part of her efforts to raise Taiwan’s profile abroad. She’s also dispatched officials to Japan and Germany.
That strategy frustrates Beijing, which regards Taiwan as part of China and sees the contacts as interference in its internal affairs.
While candidates for Taiwan’s January election are staking out their positions on dealing with China, the government has to contend with a rising tide of misleading information about candidates on social media outlets like TikTok, which said it has policies in place to ‘prevent misuse of the platform.’
Officials in Taipei have been warning about ‘large-scale’ operations from China that seek to interfere with voting. TikTok presents an added concern for Taiwan given its Chinese ownership, which has prompted Taiwanese officials, like the US, to ban it from government devices.
China’s military threats and disinformation efforts mean that the months before the election will be volatile ones for Taiwan’s voters.
Their choice between a ruling party that includes many independence advocates and others that favor closer engagement with China will set the tone for the relationship between Beijing and Taipei in the coming years and will surely help shape US-China ties too. — Philip Glamann [Bloomberg]
Taiwanese troops fire a US-made Stinger missile during a military exercise on July 4. Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg
“A hacking group based in China intent on conducting espionage breached a series of email accounts linked to government agencies in Western Europe, according to Microsoft. The company said a group it identified as Storm-0558 was able to remain undetected for a month after gaining access to email data from around 25 organizations in mid-May.” [Bloomberg]
North Korea test-fired a suspected long-range ballistic missile designed to deliver a nuclear strike on the US after warning Washington of “shocking” consequences for flying spy planes that Pyongyang claimed violated its airspace. Japan’s Defense Ministry said the missile was an ICBM that reached an altitude of about 6,000 kilometers (3,730 miles).
“Out with the old. It’s the end of an era for Thai politics. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha announced on Tuesday that he will retire after taking power nine years ago in a military coup. The move comes just two days before Thai lawmakers are set to vote on the country’s next prime minister. As of now, progressive Move Forward Party candidate Pita Limjaroenrat and populist Pheu Thai Party candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra are in the lead to secure the job. Prayuth stated that he will continue on in a caretaker role until a new prime minister takes up the mantle.
Prayuth’s decision came to the surprise of few, particularly because his conservative United Thai Nation party suffered a major loss in May’s general elections. Still, losing Prayuth may not catalyze a major change in Thai politics, since the country’s military junta and monarchy maintain a monopoly on power, elections experts Jessica Keegan and Martin Kunze argued in Foreign Policy.” [Foreign Policy]
“Raisi heads to Africa. After a one-day delay, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is ready to embark on a rare Africa trip starting Wednesday, the first time an Iranian leader will visit the continent in 11 years. The three-day string of diplomatic meetings will begin in Kenya and then proceed to Uganda and Zimbabwe, where negotiations will focus on boosting political and economic relations.
Among Iran’s goals, Raisi hopes to increase his country’s trade with Africa as well as mirror China’s growing alliances with the region. ‘The expansion of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s relations with Africa is not with an eye towards the wealth of this region but with the goal of progress and welfare for all nations,’ Raisi said in March following a meeting with West African representatives.” [Foreign Policy]
Between the lines: New Alzheimer's drug
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“There are new questions about whether a newly approved Alzheimer's drug is less effective for women, Axios' Caitlin Owens and Oriana González write.
Why it matters: Nearly two-thirds of Americans living with Alzheimer's disease are women, according to the Alzheimer's Association.
The FDA's approval of the $26,500 drug, Leqembi, opened the door to much broader Medicare coverage and was celebrated by patient advocates as a win for patients suffering from the disease, which has no cure.
The results from Leqembi's clinical trial, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, concluded that the drug slowed clinical decline by 27%.
But in a supplementary appendix, analyses of subgroups found that the rate the disease was slowed was lower for women than for men in the study.
The drug slowed cognitive decline in women by 12% compared to 43% in men.
Read on. [Axios]
Microsoft can close its $75 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, a federal judge ruled.
“That is a major setback to the Biden administration’s attempt to rein in big mergers. The FTC had sought an injunction to prevent the two companies from completing their megadeal—combining Microsoft’s Xbox videogaming business with the publisher of popular franchises such as Call of Duty, World of Warcraft and Candy Crush—before the agency began a separate process to challenge it in August. Microsoft shares were little changed after the ruling; Activision shares rose 10%.” [Wall Street Journal]
Mikala Jones, Hawaii surfer known for filming inside waves, dies in surfing accident
“HONOLULU (AP) — Mikala Jones, a Hawaii surfer known for shooting awe-inspiring photos and videos from the inside of massive, curling waves, has died after a surfing accident in Indonesia. He was 44.
Jones had gone out into the ocean Sunday morning during a trip to the Mentawai Islands off the western coast of Sumatra when his surfboard fin cut his femoral artery, said his father, dentist Dr. John Jones. The femoral artery is a large blood vessel in the thigh that delivers blood to lower limbs….” Read more at AP News
For first time, every player at the Women’s World Cup will be paid at least $30K
“A group of players across the globe asked FIFA late last year to increase the prize money for this summer’s Women’s World Cup. There had been pleas from the women to boost those funds before, but this time it was different.
The players not only wanted a prize pool equal with the men’s World Cup, they also sought a guarantee that a percentage of the prize money would go directly to the players themselves.
While it wasn’t true equity with the men’s World Cup, FIFA indeed raised the prize pool for the women’s tournament by more than three times that of the 2019 event in France….” Read more at AP News
Secret meetings, a Tiger request, ANGC membership: 15 explosive takeaways from Congressional hearing on PGA Tour-Saudi PIF
“PGA Tour COO Ron Price and board member Jimmy Dunne did their best to keep the fireworks at bay on Tuesday in front of the Senate, cooperating but rarely providing color in their testimony regarding the PGA Tour’s planned partnership with Saudi Arabia. But those doing the questioning made sure the proceedings were entertaining, and occasionally informative, with a 276-page document dump at the hearing’s onset offering a number of surprising admissions. For those that missed the three-hour hearing on Capitol Hill, here are 15 takeaways from Tuesday’s Congressional hearing:
The tour proposed LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman would be terminated
In his opening remarks Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) noted a side agreement between the PGA Tour and PIF that Norman would be terminated. According to a PGA Tour spokesperson, the side agreement was never signed; however, Price, speaking to Blumenthal in the hearing, said that if an agreement does move forward ‘we would not have a requirement for that type of position’ when asked about Norman. Norman has been telling LIV players and staff members that LIV Golf will return for 2024 and beyond, but there is no guarantee the fledgling circuit will continue, and Norman is not mentioned anywhere in the framework agreement.
There is a non-disparagement clause
Senator Blumenthal brought up that the PGA Tour has a non-disparagement clause that prevents the tour from saying anything negative or critical of Saudi Arabia. Though these types of provisions are relatively common in negotiations, the agreement was noteworthy given the outcry against Saudi Arabia’s human rights abuses. ‘It’s hard to get something done when you’re saying bad things about,’ Dunne noted. ‘In this country we believe in free speech. If we don’t, it’s gone.’ Price did say he doesn’t envision a similar provision applying to PGA Tour players but could not say for certain.
Saudi’s PIF investment in the new alliance is whopping
In response to Senator Blumenthal’s question, ‘What is the amount of the Saudi investment that is going to be made? What are the amounts that have been discussed?’ Price said investment will be ‘significant … north of $1 billion.’ That’s billions with a B, which is about the same number as the tour’s net assets last year ($1.3 billion).
Saudi's PIF wants to sponsor at least two PGA Tour designated events, one being in Saudi Arabia
This was among some of the notable proposals in a slideshow titled, ‘The Best of Both Worlds.’ Also among the proposals:
Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy to captain and play on LIV teams
The Saudi proposal also wanted Woods and McIlroy to play in 10 events. The proposal was rejected by the PGA Tour.
Rory McIlroy met with PIF Governor
In late 2022, a rendezvous was arranged between McIlroy and PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan, according to the documents released by the Senate. ‘It was a very cordial and constructive meeting ... He [Al-Rumayyan] has been frustrated by his inability to engage constructively with the PGA,’ the document reads. ‘In our meeting, Rory and His Excellency talked of the need for compromise to benefit the game’s stakeholders, be in players, fans, broadcasters, sponsors and charities.’ The document also states McIlroy ‘was seeking no personal financial gain, he was simply trying to unify the game.’
The tour has a friend in Senator Johnson
Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) did not so much ask questions of Price and Dunne as he did play devil’s advocate for why the tour had no choice. ‘I don’t see the PGA Tour as doing anything wrong here,’ Johnson said later in the hearing. ‘The questions feel like there you did anything wrong.’ Johnson also pushed back against moral entanglements in doing business with the Saudi regime. ‘Well listen, I have the deepest sympathy for 9/11 families, I understand the issue of sportswashing, I don’t think there’s any—there’s not enough billions of dollars for the Saudis to wash away the stain of the brutal [Jamal] Khashoggi murder,’ Johnson said. ‘But the reality is we all buy oil, we use—we drive cars, we are the ones that are filling up the coffers of the Public Investment Fund.’
A senator was unaware PGA Tour China no longer exists
Everyone at the proceedings had an agenda, although no one’s was more apparent than Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who tried to grill Price about the existence of the tour’s developmental league in China. One problem: Hawley had no idea the league had not been operational since 2019. Worse, when given a chance to speak later in the hearing, Hawley doubled down, trying to ascertain that the tour no longer had an agreement with China. Price said to his knowledge the tour does not plan on continuing operations in the country. The league was initially paused due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
The PGA Tour wanted a 'softball segment' with CNBC
Regarding the rushed announcement, Saudi and LIV advisor Michael Klein asserted the need for the Tour-PIF relationship to look true and to set the narrative off the jump, one that would be supported by a ‘softball segment’ on CNBC. ‘The press teams are aligned on this. They are also taking all of the recent lessons from the Boeing Saudi announcements which went extremely well in DC, nationally, and internationally. The worst thing we can do is have naysayers lead the chorus.’ PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan and PIF governor Al-Rumayyan ultimately announced the partnership during a CNBC appearance.
The PGA Tour didn’t want PIF’s lawyers to look at the agreement
This was according to Dunne: ‘We were afraid if the other sides’ lawyers found out the agreement would be gone.’ Speaking of lawyers …
The framework was just to end the litigation
Price and Dunne were adamant that the tour messed up the messaging of the alliance. According to Dunne, he would have wanted the initial announcement to be that the litigation was over between the tour and PIF, and that PIF would be looking into being an investor in the tour. This echoed what Price wrote in an op-ed Monday.
The deal is not a merger
This has been another talking point from the tour after the word ‘merger’ was used in the initial joint press release. Instead, Price and Dunne said, the PGA Tour will remain intact, with PIF contributing to the new for-profit entity as a minority investor.
A fiery admission
Price and Dunne admirably represented the tour, defending the league as best as they could. However, the tour has been adament throughout the past two years that it was operating from a position of power. Dunne countered that sentiment by admitting that “LIV put us on fire” regarding its own actions. That quote will certainly shouted by LIV supporters should the deal ultimately not come to fruition.
What went unsaid
One of the biggest questions entering into the hearing was why the tour kept its negotiations with PIF so secret, a question Blumenthal raised multiple times. Dunne would only say that the discussions were ‘fragile.’ Blumenthal noted, ‘Most executives and CEOs are legally and morally obligated to keep board of directors informed.’
And finally …
PIF governor wanted Augusta National membership as part of agreement
There’s the distinct possibility that the past two years of civil war in professional golf were caused by a man trying to backdoor his way into a green jacket.” [Golf Digest]
Milan Kundera, Literary Star and Communist Party Outcast, Dies at 94
Mr. Kundera, the author of “The Unbearable Lightness of Being,” was known for sexually charged novels that captured the suffocating absurdity of life in his native Czechoslovakia.
By Daniel Lewis
“Milan Kundera, a Communist Party outcast who became a global literary star with mordant, sexually charged novels that captured the suffocating absurdity of life in the workers’ paradise of his native Czechoslovakia, died on Tuesday in Paris at age 94.
A spokeswoman for Gallimard, Mr. Kundera’s publisher in France, said on Wednesday that Mr. Kundera had died “after a prolonged illness.”
Mr. Kundera’s run of popular books began with “The Joke,” which was published to acclaim during the Prague Spring of 1968, then banned with a vengeance after Soviet-led troops crushed that experiment in “socialism with a human face” a few months later. He completed his final novel, “The Festival of Insignificance” (2015), when he was in his mid-80s and living comfortably in Paris.
The novel was his first new fiction since 2000, but its reception, tepid at best, was a far cry from the reaction to his most enduringly popular novel, “The Unbearable Lightness of Being.”…” Read more at New York Times