The Full Belmonte, 7/10/2023
A Ukrainian serviceman walks amid the rubble of a building damaged by Russian bombardments near a frontline in Kharkiv, Ukraine. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana, File)
Ukraine tops NATO summit agenda along with defense plans, Sweden’s membership and Belarus fears
“Russia’s war in Ukraine will top the agenda when U.S. President Joe Biden and his NATO counterparts hold a summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius over two days starting on Tuesday. The leaders are set to endorse new defense plans should Vladimir Putin try to broaden Moscow’s war beyond Ukraine and westward into allied territory. Read more.
Why this matters:
Under a pledge made in 2014, after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, NATO allies agreed to halt the cuts they made in calmer times after the Cold War ended, boost their national military budgets and move toward spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2024. With that target date closing in, and the biggest land war in Europe in decades ravaging Ukraine, NATO is expected to commit to a new spending goal.
In April, Finland joined NATO in a major blow to Russia over the Ukraine war. Sweden’s accession is up for discussion this week, but Turkey continues to delay the Scandinavian country’s admission as its 32nd member. And on Ukraine’s requested admission into NATO, President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview that aired Sunday: ‘I don’t think it’s ready for membership.’
It’s not on the agenda, but NATO hopes that Belarus, Lithuania’s big neighbor, and Russia’s main backer, will play no surprise role in the summit or the war in Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said last month that his country has received Russian tactical nuclear weapons.” [AP News]
Cities have long made plans for extreme heat. Will it be enough?
“After a heat wave killed more than 700 people in 1995, Chicago developed emergency heat response plans that include a massive push to alert the public. Around the world, cities have added chief heat officers and adopted other measures. But experts warn those steps might not be enough in a world that is seeing heat records consistently shatter and with continuing inequality in who is most vulnerable. Read more.
Why this matters:
Heat preparedness has generally improved over the years as forecasting has become more accurate, but what works in one city might not be as effective in another. ‘I don’t know a single city that is truly prepared for the worst-case scenario that some climate scientists fear,’ said Eric Klinenberg, a professor of social sciences at New York University.
France launched a heat watch warning system after an extended heat wave in 2003 caused nearly 15,000 deaths. Germany last month launched a new campaign against heat wave deaths.
In India, a 2010 heat wave with temperatures over 118 degrees Fahrenheit led to the deaths of over 1,300 people. Officials now have a heat action plan to improve awareness in the local population and health care staff. Another simple initiative: Painting roofs white to reflect the blazing sun.” [AP News]
Higher tides are creating new problems in Hawaii
“With climate change, rising seas are eroding Hawaii’s coast near homes with cesspools. Sea rise is also pushing the island’s groundwater closer to the surface, allowing cesspool effluent to pollute it and flow into the ocean. Read more.
Why this matters:
Hawaii has 83,000 cesspools — more than any other state — and about 20% are less than 1 mile from shore. Six years ago, Hawaii mandated removal of all cesspools by 2050. The task is costly and scientists warn it will be exacerbated by global warming.
Public health officials warn exposure to sewage can cause gastroenteritis, conjunctivitis and skin infections. Sewage in the ocean also harms coral reefs that support marine life and tourism.” [Axios]
GOP targets foreign dark money
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
“House Republicans are working on legislation to prevent foreign nationals from influencing U.S. elections, Axios' Hans Nichols and Stef Kight report.
Why it matters: U.S. intelligence found that foreign governments tried to help the GOP in the last two presidential elections.
House Republicans are trying to flip the script, and draw attention to foreign donations to Democrat-aligned and progressive nonprofits.
Non-U.S. citizens can't contribute to candidates, campaigns, or super PACs. But they can give to 501(c)(4) organizations — tax-exempt groups that can engage in issue advocacy, and support state ballot initiatives.
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), chair of the House Administration Committee, is introducing legislation to ban such groups from contributing to political committees for four years if they accept foreign donations.
‘The American Confidence in Elections (ACE) Act will close loopholes that foreign nationals are exploiting to funnel money to super PACs or ballot initiatives,’ Steil told Axios, ahead of a hearing he's holding in Atlanta today on election integrity.
Keep reading. [Axios]
Flash flooding on the East Coast kills one
“Heavy rain has spawned extreme flooding in New York’s Hudson Valley, killing at least one person and forcing road closures. The flooding Sunday night came as much of the rest of the Northeast U.S. prepares for a major storm. Orange County Executive Steven Neuhaus says rescue teams were attempting to retrieve the body of a woman in her 30s who drowned after being swept away while trying to evacuate her home. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency for Orange County just after 9 p.m. Sunday.” Read more at USA Today
Emergency personnel work at the scene of flooded homes on Lowland Hill Rd. in Stony Point, New York, July 9, 2023.
Seth Harrison/The Journal News
Nine wounded in Cleveland mass shooting as police search for suspect
“Police are searching for a suspect after a gunman opened fire on a crowd of people in Cleveland early Sunday, wounding nine before fleeing the scene. Investigators are looking for surveillance video from the many cameras in the Warehouse District, a popular night spot featuring trendy shops, restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Police Chief Wayne Drummond said seven men and two women ages 23 to 38 were struck, but no fatalities were immediately reported.” Read more at USA Today
Algae on Lake Okeechobee, Fla.Josh Ritchie for The New York Times
“Huge toxic blooms of algae are threatening wildlife and people in Florida.” [New York Times]
Public transit
“More major cities in the US are letting people ride public transit systems for free. Among the latest cities to drop their fares are Raleigh, Richmond, Olympia, Tucson, Kansas City and Alexandria, Virginia. Denver is also planning to drop fares across its system this summer, while Boston is piloting three zero-fare public bus routes. Additionally, New York City is expected to test free buses on five lines. Proponents say eliminating fares will give a badly needed boost to ridership and compel more people to get out of their cars for daily commutes and large events. They also say it will remove cost burdens for lower-income riders and reduce boarding times. Free transit experiments began decades ago, but the concept has recently received a push as urban areas look to mass transit to reduce carbon emissions and ease inequality.” [CNN]
Israel
“Massive protests are erupting across Israel for the 27th consecutive week as people rally against the government's judicial overhaul plan. Organizers have estimated around 365,000 people have come out in cities around the country, with 180,000 people in the streets of central Tel Aviv alone. The protests come just before a key vote in the national legislature today on a bill to lessen judicial oversight of the executive and legislative branches. As the protests reached their peak this past Saturday, social media videos and Israeli press reported police using water cannons to clear demonstrators from blocking one of Tel Aviv's main highways.” [CNN]
Biden in London
Photo: Ben Cawthra/Sipa USA via Reuters
“President Biden's motorcade heads for his meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak this morning.
Later today, Biden will take tea with King Charles III at Windsor Castle.” [Axios]
“More than three years into a pandemic border lockdown, Azerbaijan shows little sign of easing the travel curbs that most nations couldn’t give up fast enough. As Zulfugar Agayev reports, the nation whose neighbors include Iran and Russia long abandoned other Covid-related safety measures such as face masks. Land border controls have been a money spinner, however, because they close off the main channel for hard currency to leak out the country.” [Bloomberg]
“Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced he’s leaving politics after his coalition government collapsed amid infighting over migration policy. The resignation of the Netherlands’ longest-serving premier brings down the curtain on a career that placed him at the heart of European Union politics as the bloc’s leaders wrestled with the debt crisis, which was raging when he took office in 2010, a global pandemic and the war in Ukraine.” [Bloomberg]
On the front line in southern Ukraine.David Guttenfelder for The New York Times
Slow start
“The recent mutiny in Russia has distracted attention from a more positive development for President Vladimir Putin: Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer counteroffensive hasn’t made much progress so far.
Since the counteroffensive began last month, Ukraine claims to have retaken only about 60 square miles. By comparison, a less heralded push last fall in the country’s northeast reclaimed nearly 5,000 square miles. ‘Ukraine is probably weeks behind where it hoped to be at this time,’ said my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security.
For now, Ukraine appears to be struggling against Russian forces that are better prepared than the ones they encountered in last fall’s offensive. Large minefields set up by the Russians have been especially difficult to deal with, making any Ukrainian advance risky. Western leaders are considering more aid to help Ukraine break through — a topic that will likely come up in a NATO summit, starting tomorrow. (Here’s a Times preview of the summit.)
‘It has been hard going,’ Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, told my colleague David Leonhardt on Friday. ‘Defense has consistently been a more straightforward proposition than offense in this war, frankly, on both sides.’
To understand what’s at stake, today’s newsletter will walk through the two likely scenarios for coming months. In one, Ukraine eventually breaks Russia’s defenses. War victories, after all, often take time. In the second, less positive outcome for Ukraine, the stalemate continues, giving Putin reason to think that time is on his side.
Scenario 1: A breakthrough
Ukraine does have reason to remain cautiously optimistic. It still has months of dry, sunny weather and hard-packed ground before a rainy, muddy fall will make military advances difficult. And so far, Ukraine has not made a full push with the bulk of its troops. It has mostly prodded Russian forces with smaller strikes — trying to find weaknesses in defenses that are made up of not just minefields, but also tank traps, other obstacles and then two or three lines of dug-in soldiers.
If Ukraine finds a vulnerability in those defenses, it would then commit to a larger effort. If Ukrainian forces then break through, the rest of the Russian lines could panic and fall apart, allowing Ukraine to take back a lot more territory. All of this could play out very slowly, over weeks or months.
‘American officials are growing anxious, but it is not too late,’ said Julian Barnes, a Times correspondent who covers intelligence agencies. ‘The big push could still come.’
This scenario could look similar to Ukraine’s recapture of the southern city of Kherson last year. Ukraine spent months in the summer using smaller strikes to wear down Russian forces and exhaust their supplies around the city. Ukrainian forces moved into Kherson starting in late August, and Russia announced its retreat in November. It seemed like a sudden turn of events at the time, but it came after months of grinding work by Ukraine.
‘Ukraine has yet to commit a substantial portion of its force,’ Sullivan said about the current counteroffensive. ‘We won’t really know the extent to which Ukraine will retake territory until they commit the substantial number of forces that they have thus far held in reserve.’
Scenario 2: Russia holds on
Ukrainian troops undergoing mine training.David Guttenfelder for The New York Times
As poorly as the first year of the invasion went for Russia, the country does seem to have learned from some of its mistakes. Last year, Russia often used one hastily built line of troops to defend a large piece of territory. Russia’s multiple defensive lines and minefields in Ukraine today are a significant improvement. ‘The Russians are clearly more prepared than they were before,’ Eric said.
Military shipments from the U.S. and Europe are meant to help Ukraine break through such defenses. But Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, told CNN last week that advanced weapons had come too slowly, forcing him to delay the counteroffensive and giving Russian forces time to lay down more mines and fortify their defensive lines.
(The U.S. announced more support for Ukraine on Friday, including contentious cluster munitions.)
‘If Ukraine doesn’t do as well as we hoped, the responsibility for that is partly going to fall on Western decision-making and its sluggishness,’ said George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.
The bottom line
Ukraine’s primary goal in its counteroffensive is to retake much, if not all, of the land connecting Russian forces in the eastern region of Donbas and the southern peninsula of Crimea. In doing so, Ukrainian leaders would hope to get Russia to worry about a full defeat and negotiate a favorable peace deal.
To achieve that, Ukraine will need to take much more territory than it has so far. With months to go, it still has time to succeed. And Ukraine has surprised the world before.
Related: A retired military official uses maps to explain Ukraine’s strategy on the front lines in a video for The Wall Street Journal.
More on Ukraine
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who has been a block to new NATO members, said Ukraine ‘deserves NATO membership.’ Biden said it was too soon.
Zelensky marked the 500th day of the war with a video of his visit to a Black Sea island that has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
Most Ukrainians know someone who has been killed or injured. For Times Opinion, Nick Kristof visited a rehabilitation center for amputees near Lviv, Ukraine.” [New York Times]
Stunning AI stat
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
“Experts say AI-generated content could soon account for 99% or more of all information on the internet, further straining already overwhelmed content moderation systems, Axios chief tech correspondent Ina Fried reports.
Dozens of ‘news sites’ filled with machine-generated content of dubious quality have already cropped up.
Why it matters: Generative AI systems can recycle conspiracy theories and other misinformation found on the open web.
Threat level: University of Washington professor Kate Starbird, an expert on ways people use social media during crises, told Axios that generative AI will deepen the misinformation problem in three key ways.
Generative AI is great at churning out misinformation. ‘Generative AI creates content that sounds reasonable and plausible, but has little regard for accuracy,’ Starbird said. ‘In other words, it functions as a BS generator.’ Some studies show AI-generated misinformation to be even more persuasive than false content created by humans.
Generative AI helps those who deliberately seek to mislead. ‘Generative AI makes it extremely cheap and easy to generate content — including micro-targeted messages for specific audiences.’ Starbird said.
Generative AI models themselves offer a new target for misinformation purveyors. ‘Would-be manipulators may seek to 'poison' or strategically shape the outputs of these models by feeding their content into the inputs,’ Starbird said.
Keep reading. [Axios]
Unsold EVs pile up
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
“The auto industry is cranking out more electric vehicles (EVs). But there's a big problem: not enough buyers, Axios' Joann Muller reports.
Why it matters: The growing mismatch between EV supply and demand shows that although more consumers are interested in EVs, they're still wary about purchasing one because of price and charging concerns.
By the numbers: EV sales, which account for 6.5% of the U.S. auto market so far this year, are expected to pass 1 million units for the first time in 2023, Cox Automotive forecasts.
Tesla's rapid expansion, plus new EVs from other brands, are fueling the interest — 33 new models are arriving this year, and 50+ new or updated models are coming in 2024, Cox estimates.
Reality check: Sales aren't keeping up with that increased output.
The nationwide supply of EVs in stock has swelled nearly 350% this year, to 92,000+ units. That's a 92-day supply.
Dealers have 54 days' worth of gas-powered vehicles.
Between the lines: Hybrid vehicles have much lower inventory levels, supporting Toyota's argument that consumers want a stepping stone to fully electric cars.
There's a tight 44-day supply of hybrids industrywide, according to Cox.” [Axios]
Novak Djokovic will be back at Centre Court
“Novak Djokovic will be back at Centre Court on Monday to try to close out his fourth-round Wimbledon match against 17th-seeded Hubert Hurkacz. The seven-time champion was leading by two sets — 7-6 (6), 7-6 (6) — on Centre Court when play was suspended by the tournament's 11 p.m. curfew on Sunday night. Djokovic's Wimbledon winning streak is at 31 matches and he's 5-0 head-to-head against Hurkacz. On the women's side, defending champion and No. 3 seed Elina Rybakina takes on 13th-seeded Beatriz Haddad Maia, who is in the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time.” Read more at USA Today
Novak Djokovic falls over the net against Hubert Hurkacz of Poland in the Men's Singles fourth round match on July 9, 2023 in London, England.
Clive Brunskill, Getty Images