The Full Belmonte, 6/29/2023
Titan debris brought up from the ocean floor is unloaded Wednesday from the Horizon Arctic ship at the Canadian Coast Guard pier in St. John's, Newfoundland.
Titan sub
“‘Presumed human remains’ were recovered from the debris field of the doomed Titan submersible, the US Coast Guard said. The discovery was among the evidence that arrived at a Canadian pier nearly a week after authorities determined the Titanic-bound vessel imploded in the North Atlantic, killing all five people aboard. The company that owns the remotely operated vehicles that brought Titan’s wreckage to the surface has ‘successfully completed’ the offshore work, it said. US medical professionals will analyze the remains for more insight into the tragic voyage. Titan was made of carbon fiber and titanium, and weighed 23,000 pounds, according to OceanGate, which operated the craft. Investigators say voice recordings and data from the mother ship that carried the sub will be examined.” [CNN]
This illustration provided by researchers depicts gravitational waves stretching and squeezing space-time in the universe. (Aurore Simonnet/NANOGrav Collaboration)
SPACE
Scientists have finally ‘heard’ gravitational waves in space
“Scientists have observed for the first time the faint ripples caused by the motion of black holes that are gently stretching and squeezing everything in the universe. Albert Einstein predicted that when really heavy objects move through spacetime — the fabric of our universe — they create ripples that spread through that fabric. Scientists sometimes liken these ripples to the background music of the universe. Read more.
Why this matters:
‘It’s really the first time that we have evidence of just this large-scale motion of everything in the universe,’ said Maura McLaughlin, co-director of NANOGrav, the research collaboration that published the results.” [AP News]
A heat wave wasn't enough for Americans to deal with
“In some parts of the Midwest and East Coast, air quality has worsened again because of the smoke from wildfires that are still burning in Canada.” [NPR]
Kathleen Foody/AP
“More than a third of the US population is under air quality alerts due to smoke from Canadian wildfires. Officials are urging people to take safety precautions weeks after similar wildfire smoke blanketed the Northeast. Over 120 million people are under the alerts in more than a dozen states from the Midwest to the East Coast. Some of the worst air quality, which is classified as ‘very unhealthy,’ is centered over the Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Indianapolis metro areas. Some improvement is expected today, particularly over the Great Lakes area, where rain and storms will help cleanse the air. Canada is seeing its worst fire season on record as almost 500 fires rage across the country, according to fire officials. Readers in the US can click here to track the air quality where they live. The map is updated every 30 minutes with new data.” [CNN]
© The Associated Press / Charles Rex Arbogast | President Biden speaks in Chicago on Wednesday.
Biden pitches ‘record to run on’
President Biden ascribes to a West Wing adage handed down through the ages that good policy is good politics. And repetition helps.
It’s too soon for legacy building (reelection is required). But persuasion takes time, and ‘Bidenomics,’ the president’s most recent summation of his governing agenda, is meant to encapsulate long-term help for middle-class families, many of whom feel economically stressed and unsure about crediting Biden or about giving him a second term.
‘We've got a record to run on,’ Biden told campaign supporters Wednesday in Chicago. ‘And most importantly, we're not only changing the country, we're transforming the country.’
To embrace that idea — that Democrats’ vision of change is positive and realistic amid daily turmoil and toxic headlines — Americans either need to experience it or be so fearful they won’t see improvements, they decide to stick with the incumbent to ‘finish the job,’ as Biden puts it.
Most Americans and many Democrats say they’re pessimistic about the economy and about the job the president is doing. ‘The economy is a weak point for Biden within his own party, especially among young Democrats. Just 47 percent of Democrats under age 45 approve of his handling of the economy,’ according to the latest AP-NORC poll released Wednesday. Biden’s overall job approval is 41 percent in the survey of adults, about where it was a month ago. His stewardship of the economy garners approval from 60 percent of Democrats, and from 10 percent of Republicans.
The Wall Street Journal: Biden is in a race to reverse voters’ pessimism about the economy.
The president and his surrogates are traveling the country early this summer to contrast GOP leadership with Democrats’ agenda and a ‘record’ Biden says he’s running on. He ribbed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) Wednesday for celebrating federal broadband funding that benefits his state, even though Tuberville voted against a bipartisan infrastructure measure in 2021 that made it possible (The Hill).
‘Bidenomics,’ according to top administration officials, encompasses an economy that in effect could have been worse after the pandemic: The U.S. is not in recession; the labor market remains strong; job creation is measurable; and price inflation has eased somewhat.
‘I don't believe we need to see any very significant weakening of the labor market,’ Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told MSNBC Wednesday. ‘There's a path for inflation to come down in the context of the strong labor market, and I think we're seeing that. We're on that path. But it will take time.’
Republicans, in contrast, argue that Biden’s policies produced inflation, rising debt and unsustainable spending.
It’s the narrative Democrats want to rebut by spring, if it hasn’t already taken root.
The Hill: Biden is digging for dollars in wealthy Democratic enclaves. He’ll fund-raise in New York City this evening.
The New York Times: The Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on China’s ability to access critical technology, including restricting the sale of high-end chips used to power artificial intelligence. Restrictions would affect sales to China of advanced chips made by companies such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel, which are needed for the data centers that power artificial intelligence.” [The Hill]
Dementia
“Doctors are questioning a study that suggests a link between hormone replacement therapy and dementia. Women in their 50s who use estrogen and progestin hormone replacement therapy for menopausal symptoms had an increased risk of dementia within 20 years, a study found. However, experts say the study is unable to draw a direct connection to later-life dementia and that the overall benefits of hormone replacement therapy, or HRT, outweigh the risks. Women who have hot flashes, mood changes or sleep issues — all of which affect cognition — are more likely to seek out and use HRT, said Dr. Kejal Kantarci, a professor at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. ‘That means women who choose to use hormone therapies may actually be the ones who are already at risk for dementia,’ Kantarci said.” [CNN]
Giuliani Sat for Voluntary Interview in Jan. 6 Investigation
The onetime personal lawyer for Donald Trump answered questions from federal prosecutors about the former president’s efforts to remain in power after his 2020 election loss.
By Ben Protess, Alan Feuer and Maggie Haberman
June 28, 2023
“Rudolph W. Giuliani, who served as former President Donald J. Trump’s personal lawyer, was interviewed last week by federal prosecutors investigating Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, people familiar with the matter said.
The voluntary interview, which took place under what is known as a proffer agreement, was a significant development in the election interference investigation led by Jack Smith, the special counsel, and the latest indication that Mr. Smith and his team are actively seeking witnesses who might cooperate in the case.
The session with Mr. Giuliani, the people familiar with it said, touched on some of the most important aspects of the special counsel’s inquiry into the ways that Mr. Trump sought to maintain his grip on power after losing the election to Joseph R. Biden Jr.
‘The appearance was entirely voluntary and conducted in a professional manner,’ said Ted Goodman, a political adviser to Mr. Giuliani….” Read more at New York Times
How America is changing
Data: Census Bureau. (Estimates include people reporting one race alone.) Chart: Axios Visuals
“If you work in politics, government, business, media, academia, philanthropy: Pay attention to this chart. Your world is changing.
America's Asian and Hispanic populations saw huge gains over the past dozen years — a trend that will accelerate as those families grow, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj found in analyzing Census Bureau data.
Why it matters: This is a new way to visualize America's changing face — the electorate, the customers, the influencers, the decision-makers, the workforce, the workers you'll be trying to recruit in the future.
What's happening: ‘Population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth in 2043 and beyond,’ the Congressional Budget Office said in a 2022 report.
Case in point: In Texas, Hispanic residents now officially make up the largest share of the state's population as of last week, The Texas Tribune reports.
‘The new population figures show Hispanic Texans made up 40.2% of the state's population last summer, barely edging out non-Hispanic white Texans, who made up 39.8%,’ per the Tribune.
Data: Census Bureau. (Estimates include people reporting one race alone.) Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios
By the numbers: The absolute numbers are comparatively small, but Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders grew 120%, to nearly 900,000.
The Asian population grew 105%, to 21 million.
The Hispanic population grew 80%, to 64 million.
The Black population grew 31%, to 46 million.
Between the lines: The U.S. is still predominantly white, with growth of 19% between 2000 and 2022, to 250 million.” [Axios]
New clue: Feeling bad in a good economy
Data: BLS via FRED; Chart: Axios Visuals
A new paper helps solve a polling puzzle that has big implications for the 2024 election: Why has consumer sentiment stayed dismal even as the economy roared and unemployment hit record lows?
It comes down to your personal paycheck, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets.
It's the economic version of: All politics is local.
If your wages are outpacing inflation, things look rosy — if not, well, that's quite dispiriting, writes economist Darren Grant of Sam Houston University in Huntsville, Texas.
Zoom out: In a "Bidenomics" speech in Chicago yesterday, President Biden talked up his economic record — historic job growth, the low unemployment rate (especially for women and Black people) and his infrastructure package.
Biden touted record wage growth for low-wage workers, too.
Between the lines: The thing is, the overall picture for wage growth is a less positive story. Until recently, real wage growth — that is, factoring in the impact of inflation — was negative for Americans on average.
Now, finally, as inflation eases, real wage growth is turning positive — you can see the recent reversal in the chart above. And consumer sentiment is picking up, too, as Axios' Neil Irwin reports.
The backstory: Back in 2014, Grant published a paper looking at decades of consumer sentiment polling and economic data, and found Americans' views of the economy were deeply connected to the unemployment rate: When the jobless rate was low, people's moods brightened.
When he updated the research last year he found that was no longer true. But he couldn't quite understand why.
Grant wasn't alone: Economists and journalists attributed the shift to partisanship, or media coverage or COVID or inflation.
Still wondering, Grant spent the past year looking at wage growth data from the Atlanta Fed to see how it correlated with his data on sentiment. Turns out there was a strong connection — particularly among workers in their 30s and 40s, who are most strongly attached to the workforce.” [Axios]
Unions balk at Biden's EV push
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“An emerging alignment between the United Auto Workers and former President Trump over electric vehicles threatens to sour the longstanding alliance between the union and the Democratic Party.
Why it matters: The UAW — representing more than 400,000 workers — has long been a powerful force in progressive politics and a Midwestern bulwark for Democrats, Axios' Nathan Bomey, Joann Muller and Joe Guillen write.
What's happening: President Biden has touted his aggressive push for electric cars as part of a major reinvestment in American manufacturing, but many auto workers aren't on board.
The union is withholding an endorsement for Biden's 2024 campaign after backing him in 2020.
The big picture: Most UAW members are still building gas-powered vehicles.
The union worries EV factories won't employ as many people as traditional plants because EVs are simpler to build.
The intrigue: Trump descended on Michigan — the heart of the UAW — last week, saying EVs would lead to a ‘decimation’ of Michigan's auto industry.
What we're watching: The heightened political rhetoric comes as the UAW prepares to enter difficult labor negotiations with Detroit automakers next month.
Analysts and industry insiders say a strike is likely.” [Axios]
Two transgender care bans for minors were partially blocked yesterday.
“Where? Kentucky and Tennessee. Judges temporarily halted restrictions that would have stopped transgender minors from receiving hormone therapy and puberty blockers.
Zooming out: A growing number of states are passing laws to restrict gender-affirming care for young people. But the laws have faced roadblocks in federal courts.”
Read this story at Washington Post
‘Gay furries’ group hacks agencies in US states attacking gender-affirming care
Data released by SiegedSec from six states includes South Carolina police files and contact details for Nebraska court officials
“A group of self-described anti-US government ‘gay furries’ have distributed hacked materials from agencies in six US states in recent days, citing legislative attacks on gender-affirming care as their motive.
The data released by the group, which calls itself SiegedSec, includes South Carolina police files, a list of licensed therapists in Texas and contact details for court officials in Nebraska. The Guardian’s review of that data has substantiated the group’s claims that the materials sourced from state and local agencies are genuine.
A post to SiegedSec’s Telegram channel on Tuesday night announced that ‘MOAR DAMAGE MUST BE DONE!’ and ‘Our next attack on the U.S government has arrived!’ Furries are a subculture united by passion for anthropomorphism….” Read more at The Guardian
Tensions in France after teen delivery driver killed in police standoff
“Protesters angry after police shot a 17-year-old boy dead set cars and buildings ablaze in Paris suburbs. Unrest spread to some other French cities and towns Wednesday night and Thursday morning, despite increased security efforts and the president’s calls for calm. The killing Tuesday of the boy, identified by his lawyers as Nael M., during a traffic check was captured on video and shocked the country. It also stirred up long-simmering tensions between police and young people in housing projects and other disadvantaged neighborhoods around France.” Read more at USA Today
A burnt tram following violence and protests in a Paris suburb in reaction to the shooting of a 17-year-old boy by police at point-blank range in Nanterre, Paris.
EMMANUEL DUNAND, AFP via Getty Images
Israel’s Netanyahu Revives Judicial Overhaul Stripped of Most Controversial Piece
In interview, Israeli prime minister says he wants to find middle ground on court-system changes and Ukraine
“JERUSALEM—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would drop the most controversial part of his plan to remake the country’s court system, pushing ahead with legislation stripped of a provision that would have given the national legislature the power to overturn rulings by the Supreme Court.
‘It’s out,’ Netanyahu said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that also touched on relations with the U.S., his decision not to supply weapons to Ukraine and his concerns about deepening ties between Russia and Iran.
Netanyahu’s initial judicial-overhaul plan, which sparked large-scale unrest that paralyzed the country earlier this year, was opposed by many secular and liberal Israelis who said they feared the measures would give the government too much power and lead to a rollback in civil liberties.
‘I’m attentive to the public pulse, and to what I think will pass muster,’ said Netanyahu, who has previously said he wouldn’t support an ‘unlimited override clause.’
Netanyahu allowed lieutenants to advance the initial legislation, but he has taken control of the plan’s substance and messaging since he paused the effort in March after civil unrest. The prime minister also said he would revise another controversial piece of the legislation, which would have given the ruling coalition more power to appoint judges, though he said he wasn’t sure yet what the new version would look like.
The revisions are unlikely to persuade opposition politicians to support the plan, and risk alienating the religious far-right and ultraorthodox parties that play a critical role in Netanyahu’s coalition government and see the country’s courts as too activist and hostile to their agenda….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Russia
“Russia is working to reassert Vladimir Putin's authority after the Wagner mercenaries’ military insurrection challenged his leadership over the weekend. The Kremlin planned a series of events designed to show the unity and solidarity of the state and the military under his leadership. Putin said he ‘did not doubt’ the support of Russian citizens during the Wagner rebellion, according to a Kremlin readout on Wednesday. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin planned to seize two top Russian military officials when he launched the short-lived mutiny, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing Western officials. Russia’s Federal Security Service learned of the plot two days before it was due to take place, forcing Prigozhin to change his plans and launch a march toward Moscow instead, according to the report.” [CNN]
Myanmar
“An airstrike killed at least 10 civilians and injured over a dozen others in Myanmar, local officials said. The deadly attack earlier this week was the latest in the military junta’s campaign for control since seizing power in a coup in 2021. Ma Khin Hla and her five siblings didn’t have time to run when a fighter jet buzzed over their village in the central Sagaing region. Her siblings’ bodies lay scattered around her after the strike. ‘My entire body is shaken by rage,’ she said. The jet dropped three bombs during the attack near a monastery, killing three women and seven men — including a monk — according to local officials. The attack also destroyed several homes nearby.” [CNN]
Rightwingers say ‘pink-haired liberals’ are killing New York pizza. Here’s what’s really happening
An air quality rule passed seven years ago requires some shops to install air filters like those used in Italy
“Woke bureaucrats want to destroy the last of New York City’s beloved coal and wood fired pizzerias in a crazed climate crusade.
That’s the lie fueling the latest rightwing outrage cycle, in a distorted account of a commonsense air quality rule passed in New York City seven years ago. In reality, the rule, which soon takes effect, requires a handful of pizzerias to reduce the exhaust fumes that could harm neighbors, using a small air filter like those required at other New York City restaurants, which have been used by pizza shops in Italy for decades.
But conservative attention-seekers seem determined to make this another kind of ‘Pizzagate’.
‘Some fucking little liberal arts, Ivy-League, pink-haired, crazy liberal who’s never worked one day in the real world is trying to get rid of coal oven pizzerias in New York City,’ seethed Dave Portnoy, the founder of Barstool Sports.’This is utter bs. It won’t make a difference to climate change,’ wrote Elon Musk on Twitter. (New York’s rule doesn’t actually mention climate change.)
And a pro-Trump activist, Scott LoBaido, unleashed an in-person tirade against ‘woke’ lawmakers at New York’s city hall, throwing slices of pizza over the gate. (Mayor Eric Adams, a vegan, responded that LoBaido ‘needs to bring a vegan pie to me so we can sit down and I want to hear his side of this’.)
For actual New York City pizza lovers, it’s a spectacle without basis in reality. ‘This is not legislation that will corrode the New York pizza scene,’ says Scott Wiener, a leading New York City pizza expert and historian, but some people ‘are so resistant to facts.’
The pizza pile-on was sparked by a inaccuracy-riddled report published over the weekend by the New York Post, which claimed that the city’s department of environmental protection was ‘targeting’ coal- and wood-fired pizza restaurants by forcing them to install expensive emission control devices to reduce their ‘carbon emissions’ by up to 75%.
The report also quoted an unnamed restaurateur who complained the air filters would be ‘ruining the taste of the pizza’ and ‘totally destroying the product’.
The Post’s story was highly misleading. The rule doesn’t target only pizza restaurants, but was passed in 2016 as part of an update to the city’s air pollution control code that applied to all commercial kitchens in the city. It doesn’t ask restaurants to cut carbon emissions or fight the climate crisis, but to reduce particulate matter – the tiny particles that can cause serious health problems if inhaled, including bronchitis, asthma, heart disease, and cancer.
What’s being asked of traditional oven pizza restaurants is simple: install a type of air filter in their chimneys to keep their cancer-causing dust from blowing into their neighbors’ homes. The city originally asked kitchens to do this by 2020, then postponed the plan until this year due to the pandemic. But many restaurants had already made the changes, some of them years before the rule was even drafted.
The actual impact has been minimal, says Wiener. ‘Pizzerias have mostly already adapted, and most pizzerias that need them have already installed them, and nobody has noticed. This is something that is not going to make or break a pizzeria.’
But outside of New York City, conservatives have portrayed the move as a total pizzapocalypse. The far-right media personality Benny Johnson declared on his YouTube show that ‘New York has canceled pizza’, adding:’You’re no longer allowed to eat pizza.’ And the Colorado GOP congresswoman Lauren Boebert claimed incorrectly on Twitter that ‘the majority of NYC’s world-famous pizza joints utilize decades-old brick ovens, and will be directly affected by this’.
In reality, coal- and wood-fired pizzas are just two of the many kinds of pizzas that New York City is known for. Coal and wood fires can bake pizzas very quickly at high temperatures, which creates a crispy exterior and a soft interior – ‘a dual texture that makes this pizza different from other styles’, says Wiener. But coal and wood fires don’t work well for thicker styles – like Sicilian pizza – that are also popular in New York.
If anything, the air cleaners may be what allows these traditional ovens to keep operating.
Roberto Caporuscio, an internationally recognized pizza chef raised in Italy, who now runs Kesté, a high-end wood-fired pizzeria in lower Manhattan, believes he was the first in New York City to install an air cleaner, back in 2009. Before, ‘everybody complained all the time’ about his chimney fumes, he says, sending a regular stream of health inspectors through his doors. But as soon as he put in the air cleaner, there was ‘no more problem’, he says. ‘It’s a really incredible machine.’
Paulie Gee, the owner of an eponymous pizzeria in Brooklyn, installed the same machine in 2020, and also noticed it made his neighbors much happier. ‘I don’t want to seem like this greedy person that’s willing to put all the smoke in somebody’s apartment so I can make pizza,’ he says. ‘I wouldn’t be able to live with myself any more, If I knew that they were continuing to have problems.’
The machine itself is a roughly four-by-three-foot metal box, sold as the Smoke Zapper 300 by a small family business called Smoki USA, which imports it from Italy, where it was invented nearly three decades ago. The Smoki CEO, Peter de Jong, says he’s baffled by the backlash. ‘Literally thousands of these units are installed in Italy. You actually can’t have a wood fired oven in most towns without installing one of these units,’ he says.
The way it works ‘was designed to not be an onerous requirement for a pizzeria’, explains De Jong’s son Connor, Smoki’s technical development executive. The device sits near the chimney opening, intercepting the pizza oven’s exhaust. The Zapper is technically a ‘wet scrubber’, which means it forces smoke through high pressure water nozzles. Particulate matter ‘gloms on to’ the aerosolized water and then drops into a water tank which is drained away, Connor explains. What’s left is clean, cooled-down vapor that is released into the atmosphere….” Read more at The Guardian
“With the black market price for a rhino horn topping $40,000, there’s no shortage of poachers willing to risk a 25-year jail sentence to hack off one of the animal kingdom’s most sought after commodities. But, after an estimated three-quarters of the wild rhinos in South Africa were killed in less than a decade, teams combining the skills of bush pilots and frontline veterinarians are fighting back by getting there first to remove the horns without hurting the beasts.” [Bloomberg]
A rhino cow and her calves on March 20. Photographer: Gulshan Khan for Bloomberg Businessweek
Stan Szeto / USA Today
27 up, 27 down
“No-hitters have almost become passé. It feels like we see more and more each year. Perfect games, however, are a true rarity.
Last night, Yankees starter Domingo Germán retired 27 straight hitters to record the 24th perfect game in MLB history in an 11-0 win over the Athletics. He needed just 99 pitches to do it — 72 of them strikes — and struck out nine along the way.
It’s the first perfect game in 11 years, since Felix Hernandez did it in 2012. And it comes just one start after Germán allowed 10 runs against the Mariners in 3.1 innings.
Chris Kirschner and Brendan Kuty have more on the historic implications. Additionally, as they note, before last night Germán ‘may have been most known across baseball for getting suspended a total of 81 games for violating the league’s domestic violence policy.’” [The Athletic]
”Bedard’s destiny: As expected, Connor Bedard went No. 1 overall in last night’s N.H.L. draft. The Athletic explains why he’ll transform the Blackhawks.
Simone Biles: The star gymnast is expected to compete in the upcoming U.S. Classic, The Times reports. Her entrance signals a return to elite gymnastics after her mental health issues at the Tokyo Olympics.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Lowell Weicker was a senator from Connecticut in Richard Nixon’s party when he took an assignment on the select committee investigating Watergate. His attacks on Nixon during the committee’s hearings made him famous. He died at 92.” [New York Times]