The Full Belmonte, 5/3/2023
Immigration
“In preparation for an expected surge of crossings at the US-Mexico border next week, the Biden administration plans to send an additional 1,500 active-duty troops to the border to free up Department of Homeland Security agents. The troops will take on strictly administrative roles, officials said, and will join around 2,500 National Guard troops already in place. The surge of migrants is expected because Title 42, the Trump-era policy that allowed authorities to quickly turn away certain migrants at the border during the pandemic, expires on May 11. Encounters between border agents and undocumented immigrants are at around 7,000 per day at the moment and are expected to rise dramatically next week, despite a warning from the State Department and DHS about a new, more punitive policy related to border crossings.” [CNN}
U.S. National Customs and Border Protection Port of Brownsville held a full-scale readiness exercise at Gateway International Bridge in Brownsville, Texas Tuesday, May 2, 2023.
Miguel Roberts, AP
Texas shooting
“The man suspected of gunning down five people at a neighbor's home in Texas last week — including a mother and her 9-year-old son — was captured Tuesday after a dayslong manhunt. The suspect was found under a pile of laundry in the closet of a home just miles from the Cleveland, Texas, residence where the shooting took place, San Jacinto County Sheriff Greg Capers said. ‘We just want to thank the person who had the courage and bravery to call in the suspect's location,’ an FBI spokesperson said, adding that authorities are now investigating whether the suspect had any help in hiding. The gunman will be held on five counts of murder and his bond is set at $5 million.” [CNN]
Writers strike
“Popular late night shows are airing repeat episodes ‘until further notice’ due to the film and TV writers' strike, sources tell CNN. Several shows including ‘Saturday Night Live,’ ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ and ‘The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’ began airing repeat episodes as of Tuesday. Seth Meyers and Jimmy Fallon, who host NBC's ‘Late Night with Seth Meyers’ and ‘The Tonight Show,’ respectively, previously said they would honor the strike and not air any new episodes as well. Late night shows are being especially impacted because they depend on their writers for bits, monologues and celebrity interview questions. Until an agreement is reached, analysts say the strike could shut down production on shows and cause a domino effect in the wider realm of the entertainment industry, pushing back the return of many programs set for the fall.” [CNN]
Interest rates
“Federal Reserve officials are expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point today. The Fed's decision comes just two days after the collapse of First Republic Bank, the second-biggest bank failure in US history. When the Fed raises interest rates, banks need to raise the rates on their savings accounts in order to lure depositors from their competitors. That can put a disproportionate amount of pressure on mid-sized and regional banks — like the ones who saw depositors pull their money when the banking crisis began in March. Still, the Fed will move to raise interest rates today to lower inflation. To do that, it has to intentionally slow parts of the economy by making it more expensive for banks, and thereby consumers, to borrow money.” [CNN]
US history, civics scores drop for nation's 8th graders
“Nearly all of the nation's eighth graders fell behind in U.S. history and civics in 2022 compared with 2018 on the National Assessment for Education Progress, also called the Nation's Report Card, according to scores released Wednesday. Declines were expected because of the shift to remote teaching and the loss of instruction time at the onset of the pandemic. But for these subjects, experts also worry friction over what students are taught in American history classes, especially about race and slavery, are a factor. The test results follow a national plunge in reading and math performance among fourth- and eighth-grade students from the same year.” Read more at USA Today
Biden's new strategy on judges
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
“The White House has a new strategy to guide judicial nominees through a Senate process that has gotten trickier with the prolonged absence of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson have learned.
President Biden today will nominate four new judges for openings on federal district courts — and the White House is optimistic about winning confirmation, based on behind-the-scenes groundwork.
Why it matters: Feinstein's health-related absence from the Judiciary Committee looked like it might bring Biden confirmations to a halt.
But Biden officials have begun a coordinated effort to work more closely with senators — including Republicans — about vacancies in their states.
The officials include White House chief of staff Jeff Zients, counsel Stuart Delery and legislative affairs director Louisa Terrell.
Today the president plans to name Loren AliKhan for the district court of D.C., Susan DeClercq for the Eastern District of Michigan, Julia Munley for the Middle District of Pennsylvania and Vernon Oliver for Connecticut.
If confirmed, AliKhan would be the first South Asian woman to serve on the D.C. district court. DeClercq would be the first of East Asian descent in Michigan.” [Axios]
N.C. Republicans unveil 12-week abortion ban after secret negotiations
GOP lawmakers are seeking to exploit a new veto-proof supermajority in a state that has become a critical access point for abortions
“RALEIGH — Republicans in North Carolina introduced a plan on Tuesday to ban abortion in the state after 12 weeks of pregnancy, a move that would significantly narrow the window for legal abortions but stop short of the more-restrictive bans that have been enacted in other Southern states.
The new measure was unveiled just days after proposed bans fizzled last week in two other conservative states — a near-total ban in South Carolina and a six-week ban in Nebraska — with opposition coming from some Republican women and others in the party amid fears of a growing political backlash prompted by the fall of Roe v. Wade.
In North Carolina on Tuesday, female Republican lawmakers took a leading role in introducing the legislation at a surprise press conference, which capped months of closed-door deliberations among Republicans, many of whom had been pushing for a six-week ban. The lawmakers repeatedly claimed that the 12-week ban would be widely popular with residents of North Carolina, describing the proposal as a ‘mainstream’ approach to the issue….” Read more at Washington Post
Washington state to decriminalize drugs unless lawmakers act
By GENE JOHNSON
FILE - A volunteer cleans up needles used for drug injection that were found at a homeless encampment in Everett, Wash., Nov. 8, 2017. A temporary law that makes possession of small amounts of drugs a misdemeanor expires on July 1, so if lawmakers fail to pass a bill, Washington would become the second state — after neighboring Oregon — to decriminalize drug possession. Lawmakers said Tuesday, May 2, 2023, they were increasingly optimistic a compromise will be reached to avoid those consequences. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)
“SEATTLE (AP) — Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is calling lawmakers back to work after they rejected a bill setting out a new statewide drug policy — a development that has put the state on the brink of decriminalizing possession of fentanyl and other drugs while also depriving it of much-needed investments in public health.
Lawmakers adjourned their regular session late last month after voting down a bill that would keep drug possession illegal and boost services for people struggling with addiction. Many liberal Democrats objected to criminalizing drugs, while conservative Democrats and Republicans insisted they must be to provide incentive for people to enter treatment.
Inslee has called that unacceptable, and on Tuesday he set a special legislative session beginning May 16 to give them another chance….” Read more at AP News
Judge rejects Zooey Zephyr bid to return to Montana House floor
By AMY BETH HANSON and MATTHEW BROWN
Rep. Zooey Zephyr, D-Missoula, works from the lunch counter outside House of Representatives chamber in the Montana State Capitol in Helena, Mont. on Monday, May 1, 2023. (Thom Bridge/Independent Record via AP)
“HELENA, Mont. (AP) — Rep. Zooey Zephyr, the transgender state lawmaker silenced after telling Republicans they would have blood on their hands for opposing gender-affirming health care for kids, was barred from returning to the Montana House floor in a Tuesday court ruling that came just hours before the Legislature wrapped up its biennial session.
District Court Judge Mike Menahan said it was outside his authority to overrule lawmakers who voted last week to exclude Zephyr from the House floor and debates. He cited the importance of preserving the Constitution’s separation of powers between the legislative, executive and judicial branches….” Read more at AP News
Florida Legislature Moves to Shield DeSantis’s Travel Records
“The Florida Legislature passed a bill on Tuesday that would shield the travel records of Gov. Ron DeSantis and other top elected officials from public view, a significant change to the state’s vaunted sunshine laws as Mr. DeSantis explores a potential presidential campaign….” Read more at New York Times
Police: Serbia school shooter had list of students to target
By JOVANA GEC and DUSAN STOJANOVIC
People wait in front of the Vladislav Ribnikar school after shooting in Belgrade, Serbia, Wednesday, May 3, 2023. A teenage boy opened fire early Wednesday in a school in central Belgrade, causing injuries. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
“BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — A teenager who opened fire Wednesday at his school drew sketches of classrooms and wrote a list of people he intended to target, police said. He killed eight fellow students and a school guard before being arrested.
A father of a student at the school in central Belgrade said the shooter entered his daughter’s classroom, firing at her teacher and then her classmates as they ducked under their desks. Most students were able to flee through a back door, according to a local official.
Senior police official Veselin Milic said the shooter drew sketches of classrooms and wrote a list of children he planned to ‘liquidate’ in an attack he planned for a month.
Milic said Kosta Kecmanovic called police himself when the attack was over.
Earlier, police said Kecmanovic was a student at the Vladislav Ribnikar school and was born in 2009. They said he used his father’s gun….” Read more at AP News
Sudan
“Leaders of Sudan's warring factions agreed to a seven-day ceasefire on Tuesday, the foreign ministry of South Sudan said in a statement. However, previous ceasefires have failed to quell the fighting between the rival factions in various parts of the country. Both sides — the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces — have yet to comment on the report on their official channels. Tuesday's announcement came after the UN's refugee agency warned more than 800,000 people may flee to neighboring countries, as the ongoing violence blocks evacuation convoys from key ports in Sudan. More than 70,000 people have already fled Sudan to neighboring countries, a spokesperson for the agency said earlier this week.” [CNN]
“Norway’s biggest oil and gas companies are reviving exploration plans in the Arctic waters, as the government agitates for fresh discoveries in the Barents Sea, which is estimated to hold more than 60% of the country’s undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. While exploration success so far has been limited, Kari Lundgren reports that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put Oslo under growing pressure to pump more natural gas to its European neighbors as the continent moves to sever energy ties with Moscow.” [Bloomberg]
The Arctic Explorer LNG tanker sits at anchor in a fjord outside Hammerfest in April 2017. Photographer: Mikhael Holter/Bloomberg
“The mood among many Turkish voters is tilting against Recep Tayyip Erdogan and could thwart the president’s reelection bid on May 14. Workers suffering from brutal inflation, young people worried about grim prospects and wavering support among once-steadfast voters from the Turkish diaspora are combining to threaten Erdogan’s grip on power, with polls showing a first-round victory out of reach.
Turkey’s inflation slowed to less than 50% for the first time in over a year, but underlying pressure on prices is rising.” [Bloomberg]
“Immigration has become an intractable political issue in the rich world.
When government leaders take a hard line against inflows of people seeking a better life, they’re slammed as uncaring. Measures deemed too lax spark criticism even from liberals that the state doesn’t have the capacity to absorb the newcomers and only fans anti-immigration sentiment.
US President Joe Biden’s decision to send 1,500 troops to help secure the US-Mexico border demonstrates the perilous politics of immigration as he seeks a second term in 2024.
With pandemic-era restrictions that enable the rapid removal of undocumented migrants due to be lifted next week, Biden is hoping to avoid chaos along the 1,951-mile frontier that would fuel Republican complaints of a weak policy.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government, trailing in opinion polls ahead of elections next year, is trumpeting a proposal to deport undocumented migrants to Rwanda. The United Nations says such a policy will expose refugees to ‘serious harm’ and is incompatible with Britain’s international obligations.
In the Mediterranean, reports of capsizing ships and drowning migrants coming from North Africa have become routine. More than 3,231 were reported dead or missing last year alone, according to the UN. Italy has asked NATO and the European Union for help in dealing with the crisis.
While population movement is fueled by poverty, political repression, criminal gangs, wars and increasingly climate change, for many families, migration is a sound investment. Remittances from the US to Honduras or from South Africa to Zimbabwe ensure that families back home can survive.
For the US, in particular, immigration has long been shaped by images conjured up by ‘The New Colossus,’ the 140-year-old poem by Emma Lazarus at the base of the Statue of Liberty in New York, with its exhortation to ‘Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.’
As the election politics play out, though, that seems increasingly like a dream that’s being stifled.” — Karl Maier [Bloomberg]
A sign in Spanish protesting the treatment of migrants near the US border in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on March 29. Photographer: Nicolo Filippo Rosso/Bloomberg
May 3, 2023
Good morning. The outcome of the debt ceiling conflict is genuinely uncertain.
Kevin McCarthyHaiyun Jiang/The New York Times
A 90 percent story
“The hardest political stories for reporters to cover and pundits to analyze can be those that are neither 100 percent stories nor 50 percent stories.
A 100 percent story is one in which reality is clear (even if partisans sometimes deny it): Joe Biden won the 2020 election. The planet is warming. Crime and inflation are higher today than a few years ago.
A 50 percent story is one in which letting both sides have their say is the only fair way to cover it because the issue involves unavoidable trade-offs for society (even if partisans sometimes suggest otherwise). Tax rates, abortion, border security and religion in schools all qualify. These disputes are more about values and priorities than underlying reality.
Some stories, however, don’t fit in either category. These stories tend to involve disputed facts, and each side can point to some evidence for its argument — but not equal amounts of evidence. In this third category, one side makes claims that are much more grounded in truth although neither side has a monopoly on it. I think of these stories as 90 percent stories.
The fight over the debt ceiling is a 90 percent story.
One branch, big demands
Almost no other country in the world has a debt ceiling. Elsewhere, politicians argue over how high taxes and spending should be when passing budget laws. Once those laws have passed, the government doesn’t need any additional authority to borrow money to pay for its programs.
Your household budget works the same way: You don’t first decide whether to buy a car and then separately decide whether you should repay the car loan. The decision is whether to buy the car in the first place. If you do, you repay the loan — or go bankrupt.
The U.S. government instead uses a two-step process. After passing tax and spending policies, Congress must pass another law that authorizes repayment of its obligations. This second law increases the limit on how much the government can borrow, which is known as the debt ceiling. (Here’s an explainer.) Denmark is the only other country with a similar system, and Danish politicians increase their debt ceiling well in advance, typically without rancor.
On Monday, Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, announced that the federal government was likely to hit its debt limit in about a month, around June 1. If that happens before Congress raises the ceiling, the federal government could default. Defaulting could spark global financial chaos because investors have traditionally viewed American debt as a safe investment in a risky world.
The debt ceiling is not a 100 percent story because both parties have used its existence as a threat, intended to win policy concessions, when the other party controls the White House. As a senator, Biden voted against increasing the ceiling multiple times, and Senator Barack Obama voted against doing so in 2006.
But the debt ceiling is not a 50 percent story, because the two parties have nonetheless behaved very differently. Democrats have never allowed the ceiling to get close to being breached; when a Republican is president, Democrats have agreed to increase the limit well in advance. That’s what happened without much drama in 2019, when Donald Trump was president and Democrats controlled the House.
‘I can’t imagine anybody ever even thinking of using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge,’ Trump said.
When Obama was president in 2011, by contrast, Republicans came so close to allowing a default that financial markets tightened and the economy and job market suffered. Today, Republicans are calling for sweeping policy changes even though they control only the House, while Democrats control the White House and the Senate. Republicans say they will lift the debt ceiling only if Biden agrees to a large cut in federal spending that would undo some of his climate policies and make it easier for wealthy people to avoid paying taxes.
A dangerous mix
This asymmetry makes the debt ceiling a 90 percent story. And it puts the Biden administration in a difficult position.
The endgame remains genuinely uncertain. A few dozen far-right House Republicans seem willing to allow a default if they don’t get their way. Biden and his aides, for their part, believe that yielding to Republican demands will lead to more turmoil the next time the country reaches its debt limit, perhaps as soon as next year.
Instead, White House aides are debating whether the Constitution gives the president authority to act even if Congress does not, The Times reported yesterday, while House Democrats have developed a long-shot plan to force a vote on a simple debt-limit increase that might win support from Republican moderates.
‘The overwhelming sense on Capitol Hill is that these negotiations may be different than past negotiations,’ Catie Edmondson, who covers Capitol Hill for The Times, told me yesterday. ‘Democrats learned from 2011 that these types of deals only encourage Republicans to play games with the debt ceiling, and the current Republican majority is composed of lawmakers far more willing to dig in and fight, regardless of the consequences. That is a dangerous combination.’” [New York Times]
Tucker Carlson text on ‘how white men fight’ alarmed Fox board members
The board overseeing Fox News was so alarmed by the prime-time host’s text message that it planned to hire a law firm to investigate his behavior
“On the eve of what was expected to be the most closely watched defamation trial in a generation, the board of Fox Corp. last month reviewed a text message that Tucker Carlson, a prime-time star on Fox News, had sent to one of his producers in early 2021.
In the message, he described himself watching a video of Donald Trump supporters beating up someone he referred to as ‘an Antifa kid.’ Carlson wrote of his conflicting emotions, hinting at his dismay that he had found himself ‘rooting for the mob against the man, hoping they’d hit him harder, kill him.’
But in the most startling passage, Carlson asserted flatly that “jumping a guy like that is dishonorable obviously. It’s not how white men fight.”
After seeing the message, the board alerted Fox executives that it planned to retain a law firm to investigate Carlson’s behavior, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions.
The text message, first reported Tuesday night by the New York Times, added to a cascading set of concerns about Carlson within Fox News that led the company to fire him last week, according to several people familiar with the internal deliberations around his departure from the network.
The Washington Post reported last week that network co-founder Rupert Murdoch had also grown concerned about Carlson’s increasingly far-right commentary — including his disparagement of U.S. support for Ukraine — and that executives had noted his harsh critique of Fox management in his private communications, including some sexist and vulgar language aimed at a female executive.
A Fox Corp. spokesperson declined to comment late Tuesday. A representative for Carlson did not respond to messages seeking comment.
While the text, acquired during the discovery process of Dominion Voting Systems’ defamation case against Fox, remains redacted from court exhibits, board members feared it could become public during the trial. Days later, on April 18, Fox settled the case with Dominion for $787.5 million.
In his lengthy message sent Jan. 7, 2021, in the hours after a violent mob stormed the Capitol, Carlson went on: ‘I really wanted them to hurt the kid. I could taste it. Then somewhere deep in my brain, an alarm went off: this isn’t good for me. I’m becoming something I don’t want to be. The Antifa creep is a human being. Much as I despise what he says and does, much as I’m sure I’d hate him personally if I knew him, I shouldn’t gloat over his suffering. I should be bothered by it. I should remember that somewhere somebody probably loves this kid, and would be crushed if he was killed. If I don’t care about those things, if I reduce people to their politics, how am I better than he is?’
The message came after an exchange in which Carlson referred to President Donald Trump as ‘a demonic force, a destroyer.’
Though Carlson was not one of the main Fox personalities promoting false conspiracy theories about Dominion’s role in the 2020 election, it was expected that he would be cross-examined by Dominion lawyers during the first week of the trial. Executives worried how his private text messages, some of which had been released publicly in the months prior, might play in front of a jury.
Less than a week after Fox settled the case, Carlson was informed in a phone call from Fox News CEO Suzanne Scott that the network was ‘parting ways’ with him.
For years, Carlson had courted the kind of controversy that would have gotten a lesser-known personality fired. He was the subject of repeated advertising boycotts, and he attacked immigrants for making the country ‘poorer’ and ‘dirtier.’ He called white supremacy ‘a hoax’ and mocked efforts to fight the coronavirus pandemic. In 2020, his chief writer resigned after he was revealed to have been posting racist and sexist rants on a covert online forum.” [Washington Post]
Nordstrom leaves downtown San Francisco, joining big-city retail exodus
Dwindling foot traffic, rising costs and surging crime has led more stores to close in major urban centers
“Nordstrom is the latest retailer to shutter stores in downtown San Francisco as crime, rising costs and the fallout from remote work forces lead companies across the country to reevaluate viability in major urban cities.
The Seattle-based retailer, citing dwindling foot traffic, will not renew leases for its store in Westfield Mall and a Nordstrom Rack across the street, according to an email sent to staff from chief stores officer Jamie Nordstrom and shared with The Washington Post. The Westfield store will be open until the end of August, and the Rack location will close July 1….
In a statement to The Post, Westfield attributed the closure to ‘the deteriorating situation in downtown San Francisco’ and blamed the departure of businesses on ‘unsafe conditions for customers, retailers, and employees, coupled with the fact that these significant issues are preventing an economic recovery of the area.’
Whole Foods announced in April it was shutting down its year-old flagship store downtown ‘for the time being’ to ‘ensure the safety of our Team Members,’ the company told The Post. Retailers Anthropologie and Office Depot are also exiting the area.
Other cities also have seen store closures, and industry experts say the trend remains the early stages. REI shuttered its store in Portland, Ore., and Nike closed its store in Seattle. Walmart last month announced it was closing four locations in Chicago — half of its stores there — saying it has lost tens of millions of dollars on them every year since its first store opened in the city 17 years ago. The company also closed stores in D.C. and Portland….” Read more at Washington Post
Why allergies are getting worse
Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
“Allergy seasons are becoming more intense and lasting longer, due partly to climate change, Axios' Arielle Dreher reports.
Why it matters: Warmer temperatures are fueling longer and more intense pollen seasons, studies find. If those trends continue, places that typically have short or less intense allergy seasons could see longer ones.
What's happening: With fewer freezing days, plants have a longer season to grow and pollinate, lengthening pollen and allergy seasons.
Spring allergy season in the U.S. typically starts in late March and lasts through early June. But in recent years, the spring allergy season has expanded on the front and back end in some places — starting in late February and lasting into late June.
Fall allergy season — when goldenrod, ragweed and other weeds pollinate — might now begin in August instead of in September.
Soaring pollen counts are ‘really changing the landscape of allergies,’ says Neeta Ogden, a clinician allergist and spokesperson for the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America.
From 1990 to 2018, pollen counts increased by 21% nationwide, with the greatest increases in the Midwest and Texas, per a 2021 study.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: Robert Patrick rendered life with caustic wit, an open heart and fizzy camp. His 1964 play “The Haunted Host” became a touchstone of early gay theater. He died at 85.” [New York Times]