The Full Belmonte, 5/3/2022
A crowd of people gather overnight outside the Supreme Court in Washington, DC.
“In a stunning breach of Supreme Court confidentiality and secrecy, Politico has obtained what it calls a draft of a majority opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito that would strike down Roe v. Wade -- the law that affirms a woman’s right to have an abortion. The draft was circulated in early February, according to Politico. The final opinion has not been released and votes and language can change before opinions are formally released. The opinion in this case is not expected to be published until late June. CNN has not independently confirmed the document's authenticity. Politico says it has authenticated the draft. The opinion would be the most consequential abortion decision in decades and transform the landscape of women's reproductive health in America.” Read more at CNN
“The Women's March announced it will hold abortion-rights demonstrations outside federal and town buildings across the U.S. ‘at 5pm your local time.’” Read more at Axios
“Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma and Wyoming have all passed ‘trigger laws’ outlawing abortion if Roe is overturned. More states could follow suit.” Read more at Axios
“Vladimir Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9. The declaration would enable the full mobilization of Russia's reserve forces. Western officials have long believed that Putin would leverage the symbolic significance and propaganda value of May 9 to announce either a military achievement in Ukraine, a major escalation of hostilities -- or both -- because it would coincide with ‘Victory Day’ inside of Russia, which commemorates the country's defeat of the Nazis in 1945. Meanwhile, tensions remain heightened at the besieged Azovstal steel plant, where a commander among the Ukrainian soldiers yesterday said that the complex is under ‘constant fire’ as hundreds of civilians try to evacuate.” Read more at CNN
“Russia may try to annex the Donetsk and Luhansk regions through sham elections, U.S. officials said.” Read more at New York Times
“But Russia’s military campaign in eastern Ukraine has become ‘anemic’ and ‘plodding,’ a senior Pentagon official said.” Read more at New York Times
Ukraine used drones to destroy two Russian patrol vessels off the Black Sea port of Odesa. Russian missiles struck the city shortly after.
“Russia is assembling an economic relief package equivalent to tens of billions of dollars to soften the blow of Western sanctions. Moscow’s measures—which focus on aid to struggling individuals and businesses—are unlikely to prevent Russia from spiraling into its sharpest slowdown in decades, economists say. But the efforts show the deep pockets that remain available to the Kremlin to tide its population through the wartime economy’s disruptions.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“The US is likely to record its 1 millionth reported Covid-19 death in the next few weeks, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. This comes as public health officials are urging people to get booster shots months after vaccination to slow the spread of the virus. While more than three-quarters of the country has received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, less than one-third has received a booster. A detailed look at the CDC’s latest data shows that 77.6% of Americans -- or nearly 258 million people -- have received at least one dose of the vaccine. However, only about 30% of the total population has received a booster. For this reason, officials have moved away from that term ‘fully vaccinated’ and instead encourage people to stay ‘up to date,’ which means getting a booster when eligible.” Read more at CNN
“A federal judge ruled that the Jan. 6 House panel can obtain data from one of the RNC’s vendors about fundraising and political efforts. The decision represented a victory that could bolster the select committee in other lawsuits across the country attempting to resist its subpoenas as it probes the Capitol attack. The Republican National Committee’s chief counsel said that the organization would appeal and that the subpoena had been narrowed after negotiations between the House panel and the vendor, Salesforce.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“Ivanka Trump cooperated with the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, according to the committee's chairman. In a recent exclusive interview with CNN, Rep. Bennie Thompson said Ivanka Trump provided the most extensive account yet of the state of play inside the White House, as well as then-President Donald Trump's state of mind that day. A person close to the Trump family told CNN the former President's children never saw a reason not to cooperate with the committee because none of them felt appearing before the panel put them at any risk. Some of Trump's former advisers, however, have been less willing to testify. Yesterday, three additional GOP lawmakers received letters asking that they voluntarily cooperate with the ongoing probe. But two of them, Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona and Ronny Jackson of Texas, made it clear they will not cooperate with the investigation.” Read more at CNN
“Amazon workers voted against unionizing at a facility in Staten Island. The outcome marks a win for the company after a loss at another warehouse in the New York City borough last month. The National Labor Relations Board said the count was 618 to 380 against unionization, the NLRB said. An Amazon spokeswoman said the company is ‘glad that our team at [the facility] were able to have their voices heard’ and said it would continue to make improvements for staffers. A lawyer who has represented Amazon Labor Union said it was weighing its next steps and that organizing efforts would continue.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio Republicans will vote Tuesday in one of the most contentious and closely watched Senate primaries in the U.S., deciding a race that is an early referendum on former President Donald Trump’s hold on the GOP as the midterm primary season kicks into high gear.
Author and venture capitalist JD Vance is well positioned in the Republican race to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman after receiving Trump’s late-stage support, capping a bitter and expensive contest that, at one point, saw two candidates nearly come to blows on a debate stage. The winner is likely to face 10-term Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, who has distanced himself from the progressive wing of his party ahead of what is expected to be a brutal year for Democrats seeking to hold their congressional majorities.” Read more at AP News
“Democrats privately acknowledge that Senator Dianne Feinstein, 88, has memory problems, sometimes forgetting colleagues’ names.” Read more at New York Times
“A jury convicted a former New York police officer of assaulting a Washington, D.C., officer with a flagpole during the Jan. 6 attack.” Read more at New York Times
“Shanghai-area residents protested the Covid-19 lockdown. Due to the falling number of cases, more than half the city is now allowed out of their homes. People have expressed their frustration about the isolation and insufficient food with marches, art projects and in some cases by smashing rotten vegetables found in a government storage facility. Residents have also shared subsequently deleted videos of local musicians playing ‘Do You Hear the People Sing?’ from the 1980 musical ‘Les Misérables.’” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“Extreme heat in India is ‘testing the limits of human survivability,’ according to a climate expert. Last month, New Delhi saw seven consecutive days over 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit). In some states, the heat has damaged crops and put pressure on energy supplies as officials warned residents to remain indoors and keep hydrated. The heatwave has also been felt by India's neighbor Pakistan, where the cities of Jacobabad and Sibi in the country's southeastern Sindh province recorded highs of 47 degrees Celsius (116.6 Fahrenheit) on Friday. Experts say India is among the countries expected to be affected the hardest by the impacts of the climate crisis, and will likely endure more frequent and longer heatwaves in the future.” Read more at CNN
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is meeting with Prime Ministers Magdalena Andersson of Sweden and Sanna Marin of Finland as the two Nordic countries slowly but surely approach NATO membership.
If reporting in Finnish newspaper Iltalehti proves accurate, Finland will make clear its intention to join the alliance on May 12. That day will reportedly include Finnish President Sauli Niinisto giving his seal of approval followed by the requisite parliamentary groups.
As Elisabeth Braw wrote in FP last week, Sweden has more reasons to be circumspect about NATO membership, but is still expected to follow Finland’s lead. If no announcement is made beforehand, a May 17 visit to Sweden by Finland’s Niinisto gives the perfect backdrop for a joint declaration.
Unlike Ukraine and Georgia, there is no need for political hemming and hawing when it comes to admitting Germany’s Scandinavian neighbors into NATO. ‘The perception in Berlin is that it’s a manageable risk,’ Liana Fix, program director for international affairs at the Körber Foundation in Berlin, told Foreign Policy.
Today’s meeting comes as Germany has become a punching bag due to its positions on Ukraine both before and after Russia invaded, with more hawkish countries to Germany’s east calling for more decisive action.
‘It’s the same as it was in January. At some point, Germany comes around, but it’s the very last option when the pressure is really high, then it is finally being taken,’ Fix said. ‘And that’s frustrating. The actions are being taken, at a late stage, but the reputational damage has been done along the way.’
Scholz is also facing pressure from the opposition, with Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz set to travel to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tonight. Merz is making the trip to ‘save the honor of our country,’ a CDU spokesman said.
Despite Berlin’s apparent hesitancy, it has still made a significant contribution to Ukraine’s defense at a level would have been unthinkable before the invasion, exemplified by last week’s decision by the German government to send 50 Gepard air-defense tanks to Ukraine, a far cry from the field hospitals it promised in January.
‘Germany is always comfortable being part of the pack.’ Jeffrey Rathke, an expert in German studies at the Johns Hopkins University told FP. ‘They don’t want to be the most robust provider of weapons to Ukraine but they also don’t want to be in last place.’
Writing in FP, James Hawes argues that Germany’s see-saw positions reflect deeper cultural realities in Germany, especially among typical Social Democratic voters.
Perhaps wary of the diplomatic damage its back-and-forth positioning has caused, Germany appears to be out in the lead on EU plans to ban Russian oil imports. The country has already dramatically reduced its Russian energy imports since the war began, dropping its dependence on Russian oil from 35 percent to 12 percent and on Russian gas from 55 to 35 percent.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“U.S. abortion rights. The United States seems poised to overturn a key court ruling that has for decades provided constitutional protection for abortion rights, according to a leaked draft opinion by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito published on Monday night by Politico. Should the abortion ruling become final, it would go against the Western hemisphere trend that has largely moved toward liberalizing abortion rights in recent years: Argentina legalized abortion in 2020, while Mexico and Colombia both decriminalized the procedure at the national level during the past few months.” – Read more at Foreign Policy
“Modi in Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen hosts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi today in Copenhagen as the Indian leader continues his European tour. Modi’s visit comes a day after Frederiksen announced a cabinet reshuffle following Justice Minister Nick Haekkerup’s decision to become the new head of the Danish Brewers’ Association.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“The French parliamentary race. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Insoumise party joined forces with the Green party on Monday, agreeing to a joint platform and tactical voting pact ahead of French parliamentary elections in June. The apparent weakness of French President Emmanuel Macron’s La Republique en Marche party following his presidential victory in May has led to jostling among his rivals to check his power in parliament. Macron is hoping to form an alliance with center-right parties, including Les Republicains, to form a working majority.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Protests in Armenia. Armenian police detained 180 protesters on Monday in the capital Yerevan following demonstrations against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Protests led by the country’s opposition have continued almost daily since April 17 as Pashinyan considers a potential peace agreement with Azerbaijan.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Land lost | African-American farmers lost about $326 billion worth of land in the U.S. because of discrimination during the 20th century, according to a study of Department of Agriculture census data. From 1922 to 1997, Black farmers in 17 American states saw a precipitous decline in their acreage caused by state-sanctioned violence and intimidation.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Spirit Airlines rejected a $3.6 billion cash takeover bid from JetBlue. The discount carrier is sticking with plans to merge with rival budget airline Frontier, which made a cash-and-stock offer originally valued at $2.9 billion. Spirit’s board said it believed there was too much risk that regulators would bar a merger with JetBlue, even after JetBlue pledged to shed assets to win regulatory approval and to pay a $200 million breakup fee if it were unable to complete the deal for antitrust reasons.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“Grindr users’ locations were collected from a digital advertising network and available for sale since at least 2017.
Historical data may still be obtainable, according to people familiar with the matter. Two years ago, the gay-dating app cut off the flow of location data to any ad networks, ending the possibility of such data collection today, the company said. The commercial availability of the personal information illustrates the thriving market for at-times intimate details about users that can be harvested from mobile devices. A U.S. Catholic official last year was outed as a Grindr user in a high-profile incident that involved analysis of similar data. National-security officials have also indicated concern about the issue.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“The Waldorf Astoria condo conversion project will cost approximately $4 billion, including the $1.95 billion acquisition, according to people familiar with the matter.
It’ll be one of the largest, most intricate and most expensive condo-conversion and hotel-rebuilding projects ever undertaken. The legendary Waldorf, which opened in 1931 in Manhattan, is being transformed into 375 guest rooms and 375 luxury residences. Prices start at $1.8 million for a studio apartment. But the process has fallen at least two years behind the initial schedule and costs have ballooned, leading to the departure last week of the top U.S. executive overseeing the effort. The project aims to finish before the end of next year, though work may continue into 2024. The people who’ve stayed at the storied Waldorf include numerous U.S. presidents, Gen. Douglas MacArthur, Frank Sinatra and Marilyn Monroe.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“LOS ANGELES (AP) — A jury on Monday gave a sweeping win to the Kardashian family in former reality TV star Blac Chyna’s lawsuit against them.
The Los Angeles jury found that none of the members defamed Chyna, nor did any interfere with her contract by convincing the E! network to cancel her reality show ‘Rob & Chyna.’
The four Kardashian defendants — Kim Kardashian, Kris Jenner, Khloé Kardashian and Kylie Jenner — attended nearly the entire trial, but when the verdict was read all were in New York at the Met Gala, where this year’s theme was ‘Gilded Glamour.’
Chyna was in court for the verdict. She had no visible reaction.
After about 10 hours of deliberations, the jurors decided on the long jury form that the Kardashians often acted in bad faith, finding that they were not justified in telling the executives and producers of ‘Rob & Chyna’ that Chyna abused their son and brother Rob Kardashian. But they found that it had no substantial effect on Chyna’s contract or the fate of the show, and she was awarded no damages.” Read more at AP News
“James Madison University's softball team canceled the remainder of the season following the death of player Lauren Bernett.” Read more at USA Today