The Full Belmonte, 5/31/2023
AI "risk of extinction"
Image: Center for AI Safety
“The single stark, haunting sentence above is the full text of a warning issued yesterday by some of the world's top AI pioneers, through the nonprofit Center for AI Safety (CAIS).
Signers include Open AI CEO Sam Altman ... Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis ... Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott ... Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei ... Geoffrey Hinton, the "godfather of AI" ... and hundreds more.
Why it matters: The people who know the technology best are screaming that the risk of obliterating humanity isn't zero.
See the signers ... Go deeper.” [Axios]
Debt Limit
“The House of Representatives is on track to vote today on a bill to suspend the nation’s debt limit through January 1, 2025. The bill already cleared a key hurdle Tuesday evening when the powerful House Rules Committee voted 7-6 to advance it to the floor. That’s a win for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was tasked with convincing members of the committee to vote in favor even though some fellow Republicans don’t approve of the bill and have vowed to sink it in the chamber. Still, it appears a wide range of House members on both sides of the aisle are poised to support the deal. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill would reduce budget deficits by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, and reduce discretionary spending by a projected $1.3 trillion from 2024 to 2033.” [CNN]
McCarthy's magic number
Speaker McCarthy walks to a House Republican Caucus meeting in the Capitol yesterday. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
“House leaders are confident that the chamber today will approve the debt ceiling deal between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy — heading off a disastrous government default.
Why it matters: Not all victory laps are the same. The number of votes from each party could signal who made the better deal, Axios' Hans Nichols, Andrew Solender, Juliegrace Brufke and Eugene Scott report.
A solid Republican tally — with clearly more GOP votes than the Democrats — would allow McCarthy to show strength in the face of criticism from the most conservative members of his caucus.
McCarthy's lieutenants hope to get 150 of the 222 GOP Republican House members to vote yes, and virtually assure passage of the bill.
State of play: A big Democratic vote for the bill — say, well over a majority of the 213 Democrats in the 435-member House — would bolster the notion, held by some lawmakers in each party, that Biden outfoxed GOP negotiators.
If McCarthy winds up relying on more Democratic votes than Republican ones to get the bill passed, it could be an embarrassment that jeopardizes his hold on the speaker's gavel.
What we're watching: McCarthy is on the cusp of a political accomplishment few predicted just a few months ago — passing a substantial bill that cuts spending and raises the debt ceiling, with a clear majority of his conference supporting him on strategy and substance.” [Axios]
Former First Lady Rosalynn Carter Has Dementia
The announcement by the Carter Center came just over three months after it said that Jimmy Carter, 98, had entered hospice care at the couple’s home in Plains, Ga.
By Michael Levenson and Dani Blum
May 30, 2023
“Rosalynn Carter, the wife of former President Jimmy Carter and a longtime advocate for greater access to mental health care, has dementia, the Carter Center said on Tuesday.
The announcement came just over three months after the center said that Mr. Carter, who at 98 is the longest living president in American history, had decided to forgo further medical treatment and would enter hospice care at the couple’s home in Plains, Ga.
The center said on Tuesday that Mrs. Carter, 95, ‘continues to live happily at home with her husband, enjoying spring in Plains and visits with loved ones.’…” Read more at New York Times
Sacklers Can Be Shielded From Opioid Liability, Appeals Court Rules
The decision gives the Purdue Pharma owners long-sought protection, but it is a major step toward releasing billions of dollars from their fortune to states and communities to help cope with the costs of addiction.
By Jan Hoffman
May 30, 2023
“Members of the Sackler family, the billionaire owners of Purdue Pharma, will receive full immunity from all civil legal claims — current and future — over their role in the company’s prescription opioids business, a federal appeals court panel ruled on Tuesday.
The ruling gives the family the sweeping protection that it has been demanding for years, in exchange for payment of up to $6 billion of the family’s fortune to help address the ongoing ravages of the opioid crisis.
It removes a major hurdle for that money, plus the company’s initial outlay of $500 million, to be dispensed to states and communities for addiction treatment and prevention programs, needs that soared during an epidemic that has grown far beyond abuse of Purdue’s signature prescription painkiller drug, OxyContin.
Unless it is successfully appealed to the Supreme Court — an unlikely prospect, legal experts said — the new ruling will close the door on Purdue’s hotly contested bankruptcy restructuring, which began nearly four years ago. The bankruptcy is at the core of a plan intended to resolve thousands of opioid cases against the company nationwide, plus roughly 400 against individual Sackler family members….” Read more at New York Times
Elizabeth Holmes, left, turning herself in.Annie Mulligan for The New York Times
“The disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes reported to prison to begin her 11-year sentence for fraud.” [New York Times]
Jurors hear 911 call in Pittsburgh synagogue assault as trial begins
“The trial of the man accused of carrying out the deadliest antisemitic attack in U.S. history got underway Tuesday with prosecutors playing a recording of a synagogue victim’s 911 call reporting that her husband had been shot. a The gunman carrying multiple firearms, including an AR-15 rifle and three handguns, entered Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life synagogue in October 2018 and opened fire, ultimately killing 11 people and injuring several others. Robert Bowers, a 50-year-old truck driver from the Pittsburgh suburb of Baldwin, could face the death penalty if convicted of some of the 63 counts with which he is charged.” Read more at USA Today
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis greets audience members during a campaign event in Clive, Iowa, on Tuesday.
Ron DeSantis
“Ron DeSantis officially kicked off his 2024 presidential campaign Tuesday in Iowa. While speaking to reporters after the event at an evangelical church outside Des Moines, the Florida governor leveled a series of shots at his rival, former President Donald Trump, painting him as selfish, unprincipled and petty. As the opening contest in the GOP nominating fight, Iowa holds a unique role in sizing up the presidential field. That’s especially important this election season since it’s the first time in over a century a former president is seeking to return to the White House. Meanwhile, Florida officials just changed state campaign finance guidelines in a very specific way to allow DeSantis’ allies to initiate a specific kind of transfer to move tens of millions of dollars to a super PAC supporting his campaign. The planned move has already drawn a watchdog complaint with the Federal Election Commission.” [CNN]
Christie to announce next week
Chris Christie takes a selfie after a town hall at New England College in Henniker, N.H., on Thursday. Photo: Charles Krupa/AP
“Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is expected to announce his Republican candidacy for president with a town hall at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire next Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. ET, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Christie, 60, is a former close Trump ally who now calls the former president a ‘coward’ and ‘puppet of Putin.’ He gives traditional Republicans a horse — but seems to have a narrow market in today's GOP.
Here's what to expect from a Christie candidacy, per his team:
Being joyful and hitting a hopeful note aimed at America's ‘exhausted majority.’
Being authentic — a happy warrior who speaks his mind, takes risks and is happy to punch Donald Trump in the nose. Christie's recent interviews and New Hampshire town halls aimed to recapture the brio of his 2009 governor's race.
Running a national race — ‘a non-traditional campaign that is highly focused on earned media, mixing it up in the news cycle and engaging Trump,’ an adviser said. ‘Will not be geographic dependent, but nimble.’
The campaign will be run by longtime Christie hands Maria Comella and Mike DuHaime, the N.Y. Times reports (subscription).
Officials of the Christie super PAC (Tell It Like It Is) include Brian Jones, Bill Palatucci, Russ Schriefer, and Brent Seaborn.
Anthony Scaramucci is a supporter.” [Axios]
UK
“The UK’s inflation problems are getting so out of hand, officials are considering food price caps to curb the crisis. New data released this week shows the cost of store items, a metric known as shop price inflation, rose 9% through the year to May. That’s the highest it’s ever been since such stats were first recorded in 2005. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is considering asking retailers to cap the price of essential food items, something the UK government tried in the 1970s to tepid effect. Economists say capping prices leads to lower supply and higher demand, resulting in shortages. The enduring shadow of Brexit still looms large over Britain’s economy, and some experts say the government should be focused on shedding burdensome regulations that resulted from the move instead of trying to control prices.” [CNN]
Ukraine
A damaged apartment building in Moscow.Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“Russia’s war on Ukraine is increasingly spilling into Russian territory. The governor of Russia's Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, said four people were recently injured in a "massive strike” there. This is the latest in a series of strikes against Russian targets by Ukrainian forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the spate of attacks, saying Ukraine "chose the path of intimidation," and is provoking Russia to “mirror actions." Amid all the violence, scientists have another concern: International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi has outlined a plan to protect Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and asked that Russia and Ukraine observe them to ensure the plant's safety and security.” [CNN]
Suspected Chinese spies attempted to infiltrate Alaskan military bases
“Chinese citizens posing as tourists but suspected of being spies have made several attempts in recent years to gain access to military facilities, according to U.S. officials.
Officials say the military is taking a number of steps to make sure those bases are secure but have provided few specifics.
•In one incident, a vehicle with Chinese citizens blew past a security checkpoint at Fort Wainwright in Fairbanks, several soldiers told USA TODAY. The vehicle was eventually stopped, and a search found a drone inside the vehicle. The occupants claimed they were tourists who had gotten lost.
•Details about the incidents remain mostly classified. Military briefings and publicly available information lay out why the Chinese government would be interested in Alaska.
•Alaska is key to homeland defense given its proximity to Russia, the ballistic missile threat from North Korea and, increasingly, China.” [USA Today]
“Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva started his third presidential term telling the international community that ‘Brazil was back’ on the global stage.
But the leftist leader’s latest international forays have upset many allies and left most wondering what exactly he’s trying to accomplish.
The latest example came during Lula’s emphatic defense of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro on the eve of a summit of South American leaders that Brazil organized to assert its regional clout. Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez, the Brazilian president said, have been falsely described as anti-democratic and authoritarian by enemies seeking to destroy them.
For Lula, it’s about time to change a ‘fake narrative’ that has only served to justify the imposition of numerous economic sanctions hurting not only Venezuela but also its South American trading partners.
Yet his remarks drew public rebukes left and right.
Luis Lacalle Pou of Uruguay said the region’s leaders could not ‘bury their heads in the sand’ and ignore Maduro’s abuses of democracy and human rights.
Even Chile’s Gabriel Boric, a leftist president who has called on the US to lift economic sanctions against Caracas, said Venezuela’s human rights situation isn’t merely a narrative, but a ‘serious reality.’
The ensuing debate shifted the summit’s focus to human rights and pushed the economic integration Lula wanted to prioritize into the background. Worse, it undermined his ability to lead a region where several leftist leaders have risen to power in the past few years.
To be sure, Lula has always sought to forge his own path in global geopolitics, for instance playing both sides in the US-China competition while trying to represent developing nations that were left behind.
But his unfiltered rhetoric has done little to improve his image as an impartial mediator in crucial world affairs, including environmental issues and Russia’s war on Ukraine. —Walter Brandimarte [Bloomberg]
Maduro and Lula at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia on Monday. Photographer: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images
“Warning that ‘notably’ increased risks confront China, President Xi Jinping told officials to strengthen security in his latest call to tighten Beijing’s grip on the nation’s information networks. The country must toughen regulations over internet data and artificial intelligence, he told the first meeting of the National Security Commission since he won a third term in office last October.
A Chinese fighter jet swerved in front of a US reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea in an ‘unnecessarily aggressive maneuver,’ the Pentagon said.” [Bloomberg]
China’s economic recovery weakened in May as manufacturing activity continued to slump, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index falling to its lowest since December, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. That has prompted calls for more stimulus measures, such as interest rate cuts, as investors turn increasingly bearish about the growth outlook.
“Moldova can join the European Union by 2030 alongside its breakaway Transnistria region despite Russia’s efforts to destabilize the tiny former Soviet republic, President Maia Sandu said in an interview. The secret will be to pursue economic reforms and fight corruption to put the nation on a clear EU accession path and show people in Transnistria that ties with the bloc rather than Russia will benefit their lives, she told Andra Timu and Irina Vilcu.” [Bloomberg]
Maia Sandu. Photographer: Ioana Moldovan/Bloomberg
“Long known as a soggy nation due to its plentiful rainfall, the UK risks becoming a cautionary tale of how a developed country can squander its most important resource. A fifth of its water supply is lost through leaks, and climate change is shifting once-benign weather patterns toward extremes of heavy rain and drought. By 2050, the UK’s Environment Agency expects the gap between available water and what’s needed by homes and businesses to reach enough to fill 1,600 Olympic-size swimming pools a day in England.” [Bloomberg]
The dried out Woodhead Reservoir in the Peak District of central England in July last year. Photographer: Anthony Devlin/Bloomberg
Horse racing officials call emergency summit
“A federal authority called an emergency veterinary summit in Lexington, Kentucky, on Tuesday with horse racing officials to review and analyze the ‘unusually high number’ of deaths at Churchill Downs, home to the Kentucky Derby. The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) will focus on factors that could have led to the spike in horse deaths, including veterinary oversight and misuse of medications, as well as examining Churchill Downs’ racing surfaces.” Read more at USA Today
An equine ambulance carrying Here Mi Song is driven off the track after racing in the 10th race ahead of the 149th Kentucky Derby. The horse survived.
Rob Carr, Getty Images