The Full Belmonte, 5/29/2023
Despite Inflation, Earthquakes and Tough Race, Erdogan Is Re-elected
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given few indications that he intends to change course at home, where he faces a looming economic crisis, or in foreign policy, where he has vexed Western allies.
By Ben Hubbard
Reporting from Istanbul
“President Recep Tayyip Erdogan beat back the greatest political challenge of his career on Sunday, securing victory in a presidential runoff that granted five more years to a mercurial leader who has vexed his Western allies while tightening his grip on the Turkish state.
His victory means Mr. Erdogan could remain in power for at least a quarter-century, deepening his conservative imprint on Turkish society while pursuing his vision of a country with increasing economic and geopolitical might. He will be ensconced as the driving force of a NATO ally of the United States, a position he has leveraged to become a key broker in the war in Ukraine and to enhance Turkey’s status as a Muslim power with 85 million people and critical ties across continents.
Turkey’s Supreme Election Council declared Mr. Erdogan the victor late Sunday. He won 52.1 percent of the vote; the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu got 47.9 percent with almost all votes counted, the council said.
Mr. Erdogan’s supporters shrugged off Turkey’s challenges, including a looming economic crisis, and lauded him for developing the country and supporting conservative Islamic values….” [New York Times]
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to supporters at the presidential palace after winning reelection in a runoff on May 29, 2023 in Ankara, Turkey.
Chris McGrath, Getty Images
What's in Biden and McCarthy's debt ceiling deal?
McCarthy and Biden's deal now goes to Congress.
“In a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling, the White House was able to stave off the sweeping budget cuts that House Republicans pushed in their own legislation while keeping intact the president's signature domestic programs.
The deal now faces an unclear outlook in Congress, where progressive Democrats and hardline Republicans have both criticized components of the agreement.
•The tentative deal would raise the debt limit on how much the government can borrow through the end of 2024, averting a default that could happen June 5 if the debt ceiling is not raised.
•The deal caps annual discretionary spending for two years, keeping non-defense spending levels flat. This means funding for domestic programs across the board − besides Social Security and Medicare − will stay the same next year.
•The White House succeeded in keeping intact the Inflation Reduction Act − the president's signature climate and prescription drug bill − and the president's program to forgive student loan debt for millions of Americans, at least for now.” [USA Today]
Inside Biden's relentless soft sell
President Biden speaks to the media after stepping off Marine One yesterday. Photo: Julia Nikhinson/Reuters
“President Biden is adding an intellectual pitch to old-fashioned hardball as he scrambles to persuade skeptical congressional progressives to back his debt-ceiling deal, Axios' Andrew Solender and Alex Thompson report.
Why it matters: Speaker McCarthy will need Democratic votes to pass the 99-page ‘Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023,’ given opposition from some members of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus.
Some members of the Congressional Black Caucus had complained they were losing the airwave war to the GOP.
White House director of legislative affairs Louisa Terrell, one of Biden's debt-ceiling negotiators, responded that the administration has ‘pivoted now that we have an arrangement,’ and will ‘be really clear and crisp.’
Image: House Democratic Caucus
By the numbers: More than 60 House Democrats have received calls about the deal from administration officials including Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients, according to a White House official.
The administration followed up with Zoom briefings for House and Senate Democrats yesterday. Six issue-specific briefings are planned for Democrats today and tomorrow.
The call also gave Democrats a chance to air their frustrations about being cut out of debt talks.
‘I feel that the White House has not provided ... direct communication and consistent outreach,’ said Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), who was echoed by colleagues in the Zoom chat, according to a screenshot shared with Axios.
What's next: The House is expected to return tomorrow, with votes on the debt-ceiling bill scheduled for Wednesday.” [Axios]
Tennessee Law Sows Fear Among Drag Performers Ahead of Pride Month
A judge is expected to rule as soon as this week on whether the new law banning “adult cabaret” in front of children is constitutional.
Reporting from Clarksville, Memphis and Nashville, Tenn.
May 28, 2023
“Renae Green-Bean had started taking precautions in public even before the Tennessee legislature approved a law in March limiting where ‘adult cabaret’ can be performed.
Ms. Green-Bean had watched the uptick in legislation restricting L.G.B.T.Q. rights and worried that restaurant nights with her wife, children or grandchildren, or her preference for masculine attire and closely cropped hair, would invite harassment. So she could not help but worry that the new law would make her feel less safe pursuing her creative outlet: throwing on a bedazzled jacket several nights a week and transforming into El Rey, a drag king.
If a federal judge allows the law to take effect in the coming weeks, it will ban what it defines as adult cabaret performances, including by ‘male or female impersonators,’ on public property or anywhere children could view them. It will not stop the shows that Ms. Green-Bean, 46, puts on at an adults-only club in Clarksville and other clubs near the Kentucky border.
Still, she and other performers said, being seen in drag anywhere in public feels far riskier now. The law and others like it come as far-right activists have increasingly targeted drag shows across the country, with members of the Proud Boys and other protesters, sometimes heavily armed, appearing at the shows and at library story hours when drag performers read books to children….” [New York Times]
“If you thought the electoral appeal of populism was on the wane, think again.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in yesterday’s presidential runoff in Turkey is the latest evidence of its staying power. He extended his 20-year rule despite a cost-of-living crisis, a slumping currency and public anger over the bungled relief effort following February’s massive earthquakes.
The projection of a strongman image at home and abroad, broadcast by a compliant state media, mobilized his conservative base to secure a win pollsters thought unlikely just weeks ago.
In the US, Donald Trump remains the runaway favorite in the race for the Republican nomination in next year’s US presidential contest. That’s despite everything voters know about his character flaws and the chaotic experience of his term in office that ended with the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol.
The populist resurgence lifted Giorgia Meloni into power as Italy’s first woman prime minister, where she cast herself as ‘an underdog’ who succeeded by beating the odds. The rightwing nationalist has 2.7 million followers on her Facebook page.
Public anger at President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms in France is boosting support for Marine Le Pen ahead of 2027 elections in which he can’t run. Her party made record gains in last year’s parliamentary vote.
Viktor Orban remains immovable in Hungary. Vladimir Putin is mired in his faltering war in Ukraine but likely to extend his presidency for another six years in 2024. Narendra Modi is eyeing a third consecutive term as India’s prime minister next year as he pursues his Hindu nationalist project.
Voters’ anger at remote ‘elites’ continues to provide fertile soil for populist leaders at elections often driven more by social-media outrage than sober policy prescriptions.
That’s a challenge for any opponent seeking to win public support to confront difficult choices on the economy, security and climate change.” [Bloomberg]
Erdogan supporters celebrate in Istanbul yesterday. Photographer: Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg
“A Russian bombardment hit an airbase in western Ukraine, damaging five aircraft and the runway in the second massive rocket and drone attack in as many days. Ukraine was targeted with as many as 40 cruise missiles and around 35 drones overnight, Army Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on Telegram. Air defenses shot down 37 missiles and 30 drones, including one reconnaissance drone.” [Bloomberg]
“Japan and South Korea called on North Korea to call off a planned rocket launch they see as breaching United Nations Security Council resolutions, following reports Pyongyang intends to put a satellite into orbit as early as Wednesday. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he instructed his cabinet to gather and analyze information on North Korea’s plans, while Seoul warned against a ‘provocation that threatens peace’ in the region.” [Bloomberg]
“Right-wing parties in Spain won a strong platform for their bid to reclaim control of the national government, dealing a stinging defeat to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party in local elections. The result could pave the way for the conservative People’s Party to return to power in December, even though the economy under Sánchez has performed better than expected.” [Bloomberg]
“NATO-led peacekeepers beefed up their presence in northern Kosovo, where police clashed again with Serb protesters days after an uptick in violence raised fears that a conflict could reignite between the Balkan neighbors.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni signed into law legislation with harsher penalties for LGBTQ people, including death sentences and life imprisonment.
The US will hold joint exercises with coast guards from Japan and the Philippines for the first time starting this week amid elevated tensions with China.
Somalia will institute a direct, one person, one-vote election system starting next year, the national news agency reported.
Ghana’s program with the International Monetary Fund will help to restore investor confidence in the economy after years of overspending, President Nana Akufo-Addo said in a televised broadcast.” [Bloomberg]
“India’s corridors of power are getting a makeover — part of Modi’s efforts to cement his legacy as he looks to a possible third term. The prime minister inaugurated a four-story modern building as the new parliament house yesterday, part of a sweeping revamp of the colonial-era center of the Indian capital. The $2.4 billion makeover has become one of the most controversial urban architectural projects since independence, amid criticism it erases some of New Delhi’s heritage.” [Bloomberg]
A view of the new Parliament House Building in New Delhi. Photographer: Raj K Raj/Hindustan Times/Getty Images
Community college growth
Data: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (Students enrolled at multiple institutions are double-counted.) Chart: Axios Visuals
“Community college enrollment, buoyed by younger students and fresh interest in job-related programs, rose this spring for the first time in more than a decade, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.
Why it matters: The high cost of college, economic anxiety and the hot labor market are leading students to reconsider how to get the most bang for their postsecondary buck.
What's happening: Community college enrollment edged up 0.5% from the year before, after falling 8.2% and 10.1% in 2022 and 2021, according to new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
‘I think that students are increasingly looking towards programs and majors that they can ... easily see a direct link to the workforce,’ Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse, told reporters.
The labor market is going strong — incentivizing young Americans to jump in.
Majors at two-year institutions that saw increases this spring include Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services (9.7%), Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians (8.2%), Personal and Culinary Services (9.7%) and Transportation and Materials Moving (11.8%).
The big picture: Overall postsecondary enrollment still lags heavily behind pre-pandemic levels.” [Axios]
Orcas keep sinking boats off the coast of Spain and Portugal.
“What to know: The latest attack happened last week. Killer whales have done serious damage about a dozen times already this year, part of a rise first noticed in 2020.
Why is this happening? Scientists aren’t sure. One theory is that they’re playing around; another is that an orca with a vendetta against boats is teaching other orcas how to attack.” Read this story [Washington Post]
THE BOSTON CELTICS AND THE MIAMI HEAT
“The two best words in sports: Game 7. Tonight. Strap in.
Miraculous. Opportunistic. Fortunate. Jaw-dropping. Controversial. The ending of Game 6 of Celtics-Heat was all that and more. Derrick White's buzzer-beating putback was the stuff of legends -- even White's teammates couldn't believe it -- and our Jack Maloney broke down the absolutely bonkers ending to an all-time classic.
The Celtics are just the fourth team in NBA history to even force a Game 7 after trailing a series 3-0 -- and none of the previous three won Game 7.
2003 Trail Blazers (vs. Mavericks -- Mavericks won Game 7)
1994 Nuggets (vs. Jazz -- Jazz won Game 7)
1951 Knicks (vs. Royals -- Royals won Game 7)
But now, somehow, some way, Boston is in great position to be the first NBA team ever to win a series after trailing 3-0, as our Sam Quinn predicted days ago. It's because of stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, sure, but also role players like White, who went from under-the-radar trade acquisition to key contributor to, now, hero. That trade proved to be an absolute steal for Boston, Sam writes.
How, then, is it also a good morning for the Heat?
Here's the thing: Game 7s do in fact involve two teams. And while Boston has the history everyone is talking about on the line, Miami also has its own history to make. Only one 8-seed -- the 1999 Knicks -- has made the NBA Finals, and tonight, Miami has a shot to join them.
If you told the Heat a month and a half ago, when they were one quarter away from missing the playoffs entirely, that they'd be one game from the NBA Finals, they'd be ecstatic. They wouldn't ask questions about how, about potentially blowing 3-0 leads or about heartbreaking Game 6 losses. They'd gladly ship up to Boston -- where they've already won twice this series -- with arguably the best player (Jimmy Butler) and coach (Erik Spoelstra) of this postseason and give it everything they have.
And I expect them to do just that.
As for you, the fan: Embrace it. Nights like tonight are what make sports great.” [The Athletic]
“Lives Lived: George Maharis was a 1960s television heartthrob, starring in the series “Route 66.” He died at 94.” [New York Times]