The Full Belmonte., 5/26/2023
Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes sentenced to 18 years in prison for plot to keep Trump in power
By Hannah Rabinowitz and Katelyn Polantz, CNN
Updated 1:24 PM EDT, Thu May 25, 2023
Stewart Rhodes, founder of Oath Keepers, in 2021.
Aaron C. Davis/The Washington Post/Getty Images/File
CNN —
“Stewart Rhodes, the founder and leader of the Oath Keepers, was sentenced to 18 years in prison on Thursday for leading a far-reaching plot to keep then-President Donald Trump in power after he lost the 2020 election.
The sentence is the first handed down in over a decade for seditious conspiracy.
‘What we absolutely cannot have is a group of citizens who – because they did not like the outcome of an election, who did not believe the law was followed as it should be – foment revolution,’ District Judge Amit Mehta said before handing down the sentence. ‘That is what you did.’
‘I dare say, Mr. Rhodes – and I never have said this to anyone I have sentenced – you pose an ongoing threat and peril to our democracy and the fabric of this country,’ Mehta said.
The judge added: ‘I dare say we all now hold our collective breaths when an election is approaching. Will we have another January 6 again? That remains to be seen.’
Mehta said Rhodes, 58, has expressed no remorse and continues to be a threat.
A’ seditious conspiracy, when you take those two concepts and put it together, is among the most serious crimes an American can commit, t’he judge said. ‘It is an offense against the government to use force. It is an offense against the people of our country.’
Mehta on Thursday previously ruled that Rhodes’ actions amounted to domestic terrorism.
Capitol riot victims recount their experiences ahead of Oath Keepers seditious conspiracy sentencing
‘He was the one giving the orders,’ Mehta said. ‘He was the one organizing the teams that day. He was the reason they were in fact in Washington DC. Oath Keepers wouldn’t have been there but for Stewart Rhodes, I don’t think anyone contends otherwise. He was the one who gave the order to go, and they went.’
Rhodes was convicted of seditious conspiracy by a Washington, DC, jury in November in a historic criminal trial that was a test of the Justice Department’s ability to hold January 6 rioters accountable and validated prosecutors’ arguments that the breach of the Capitol was a grave threat to American democracy.
The seditious conspiracy charge has rarely been brought in the century and a half that the statute and its forerunners have been on the books.
Prosecutors had asked Mehta to sentence Rhodes to 25 years behind bars, and to apply enhanced terrorism sentencing penalties.
‘This is terrorism,’ prosecutor Kathryn Rakoczy said Thursday.
‘It is not blowing up a building directly or telling someone to blow up a building, but in light of the threat of harm and historic nature of attempting to stop the certification of an election for the first time in American history,’ Rhodes and other Oath Keepers leaders should be punished more harshly, she said.
Rhodes, who was accused of leading dozens other individuals in a coordinated plot that culminated in the January 6 siege, was also found guilty of obstructing an official proceeding and tampering with documents.
Of those that Rhodes led, 22 have already been convicted of various federal crimes by a jury or guilty plea. Eight, including Rhodes’ codefendant Kelly Meggs who will be sentenced later Thursday as well, were convicted of seditious conspiracy….” Read more at CNN
Debt limit
US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York, in Washington, DC, May 25, 2023.
“America’s political leaders have less than a week to hammer out a debt compromise before the country could run out of money to pay its bills. Some Democrats are losing patience over seemingly deadlocked talks. Several members have warned the White House their party's votes are being taken for granted, and their support for any debt deal is not necessarily guaranteed. The ongoing negotiations have already triggered negative economic repercussions. Credit ratings agency Fitch placed the top-ranked US credit on a negative watch, and 30-year mortgage rates have risen because of the looming uncertainty. There are international concerns, too: China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt, which means they would be negatively impacted by a US default as well. Together they own $2 trillion — more than a quarter — of the $7.6 trillion in US Treasury securities held by foreign countries.” [CNN]
Governments Owed Taxes Can’t Seize More Than They Are Due, Supreme Court Rules
‘Render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s, but no more,’ writes Chief Justice Roberts
By Jess Bravin
The Supreme Court ruled on the case after justices heard the suit less than a month ago. PHOTO: ELIZABETH FRANTZ/REUTERS
“WASHINGTON—The Supreme Court ruled unanimously Thursday that government agencies that seize private property to satisfy delinquent taxes can’t keep the surplus if it sells for more than the taxpayer owes.
The case came from Minneapolis, where Hennepin County officials seized and sold an elderly woman’s condominium after she accrued $15,000 in penalties and delinquent taxes for failing to pay the property tax bill for five years. The apartment sold for $40,000 and county officials contended that they could keep the $25,000 difference because Minnesota law extinguished the owner’s interest in the property.
Geraldine Tyler, 94 years old, stopped paying property taxes after her family moved her to a senior community in 2010. She filed suit, arguing that by keeping the surplus, Hennepin County violated constitutional provisions barring government from taking private property for public use without just compensation. Lower courts dismissed the case, but the Supreme Court made swift work of their decisions. The justices heard the suit less than a month ago—the last argument of the current term—and issued the opinion far ahead of cases argued last year which have yet to be decided.
Writing for the court, Chief Justice John Roberts cited legal precedents dating to the Magna Carta, when in 1215 the English barons forced King John to swear that the remainder of a dead man’s property must be returned to the estate after tax debts are satisfied. In America, Roberts observed, most states followed that principle with laws requiring that officials return the surplus after seized property is sold for tax debts….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Supreme Court limits government power to curb water pollution
“The Supreme Court on Thursday sided with a couple who have been battling the Environmental Protection Agency for more than a decade over a plan to develop a property in the Idaho panhandle.
The decision has potentially sweeping national ramifications for water quality, agriculture and development.
•A majority of the court said that the lack of clarity about what types of waters are covered by the Clean Water Act was difficult for property owners to understand.
•What Alito wrote: A ‘staggering array of landowners are at risk of criminal prosecutio’ if they don't realize their property is subject to federal environmental rules.•
Bottom line: The court's opinion adopts a new, more narrow standard that will limit how much water the EPA may regulate. That's a win for developers and a loss for environmentalists.” [USA Today]
Near the Roanoke River.Erin Schaff/The New York Times
Trump workers moved boxes of papers a day before an FBI visit.
“Where? At Mar-a-Lago, former president Donald Trump’s Florida home. It happened in June, before FBI agents came to retrieve classified documents, The Post reported yesterday.
Why it matters: It could help prosecutors determine Trump’s intent in keeping hundreds of documents after he left the White House — a key factor in deciding whether to file charges.” [Washington Post]
20 impeachment counts against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton
“Texas lawmakers have issued 20 articles of impeachment against state Attorney General Ken Paxton, ranging from bribery to abuse of public trust as state Republicans surged toward a swift and sudden vote that could remove him from office. The charges were released Thursday night, hours after a Republican-led House investigative committee recommended impeaching the state’s top lawyer. The House could vote on the recommendation as soon as Friday. If it impeaches Paxton, he would be forced to leave office immediately.” Read more at USA Today
White House
“The White House has laid out two separate national plans to combat antisemitism and gender-based violence. President Joe Biden introduced a new ‘whole of society plan’ — the first of its kind — that tackles antisemitism. He called it the ‘most ambitious and comprehensive US government-led effort to fight antisemitism in American history.’ Biden described the four-pronged strategy, which includes efforts to increase awareness and understanding of antisemitism and Jewish American heritage, and improve safety and security for Jewish communities. Meanwhile, The US National Plan to End Gender-Based Violence, released Thursday, contains seven pillars of focus, including providing support for survivors of gender-based violence, addressing online harassment and abuse, and conducting more robust research as well as collecting additional data on gender-based violence.” [CNN]
Navy SEALs training plagued by pervasive problems, according to investigation after death of sailor
ByLolita C. Baldor
FILE - U.S. Navy SEAL candidates, participate in "surf immersion" during Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) training at the Naval Special Warfare (NSW) Center in Coronado, Calif., on May 4, 2020. The training program for Navy SEALs is plagued by widespread medical failures, poor oversight and the use of performance enhancing drugs that have increased the risk of injury and death to candidates seeking to become an elite commando, according to a highly critical new investigation triggered by the death of SEAL candidate Kyle Mullen. (MC1 Anthony Walker/U.S. Navy via AP, File)
“WASHINGTON (AP) — The training program for Navy SEALs is plagued by widespread failures in medical care, poor oversight and the use of performance-enhancing drugs that have increased the risk of injury and death to those seeking to become elite commandos, according to an investigation triggered by the death of a sailor last year.
Medical oversight and care were ‘poorly organized, poorly integrated and poorly led and put candidates at significant risk,’ the nearly 200-page report compiled by the Naval Education and Training Command concluded.
The highly critical report said flaws in the medical program ‘likely had the most direct impact on the health and well being’ of the SEAL candidates and ‘specifically’ on Kyle Mullen, the sailor who died. It said if the shortcomings had been addressed, his death may have been preventable.
The investigation also dug deep into the longstanding problem of sailors using steroids and similar banned drugs as they try to pass the SEAL qualification course. The report recommends far more robust testing for the drugs — a move the Navy and the military more broadly have been slow to make — and better education for service members in order to prevent their use….” Read more at AP News
Abortion
Dr. Caitlin Bernard testifies on Thursday, May 25, 2023, during a hearing in front of the state medical board.
Michelle Pemberton/IndyStar
“South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster has signed a bill into law that will limit most abortions as early as six weeks into a pregnancy. A growing list of Republican-led states, including almost all of the US South, have introduced sweeping abortion restrictions in the wake of last year’s Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. In Indiana, a doctor who publicly revealed she provided abortion services to a 10-year-old Ohio rape victim was reprimanded and fined by the state’s medical board for violating privacy rules. The case became a focal point last year when several GOP politicians and media outlets initially cast skepticism on the doctor’s claims. However, a man was eventually charged with raping the child and an Ohio detective testified that the girl had undergone an abortion in Indianapolis. The doctor said the girl had traveled from Ohio to Indiana because of the former state’s tight restrictions on abortion.” [CNN]
Immigrant workers hit new high
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. ("Foreign-born" describes adults born outside the U.S., where neither parent is a U.S. citizen, and includes legally-admitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents and undocumented immigrants.) Chart: Axios Visuals
“The share of foreign-born workers in the U.S. labor force hit a record high last year, Axios Markets' Emily Peck writes from new Labor Department data.
Why it matters: With more Americans aging out of the workforce than entering into it — and at a time of labor shortages —immigrants are playing an increasingly crucial role in the labor market.
What's happening: The share of foreign-born people in the workforce has been steadily rising for decades, but dipped during the pandemic. That made last year's uptick look a bit more striking than it is, said Abraham Mosisa, a senior economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Still, this trend isn't going anywhere. The U.S. labor force participation rate of native-born men has been consistently decreasing, he pointed out. The rate for women has stagnated.
By the numbers: The number of foreign-born workers in the U.S. increased to 29.8 million in 2022, from 27.9 million the previous year — a jump of about 6%.
The number of native-born workers went from 133.2 million to 134.5 million — up barely 1%.
One key factor: A bigger share of the immigrant population is of working age (18-64), at 77%, according to the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute (MPI). That compares with about 59% of the native-born population.
The big picture: The relative size of the immigrant population has stayed flat over the past two decades.
It was 13.6% of the total U.S. population in 2021, according to the most recently available data — just below where it was before COVID.
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios
Between the lines: Foreign-born workers weren't taking jobs from Americans. Despite a big increase in net immigration in 2022 (essentially catching up from the COVID slump), there were plenty of jobs to go around.
At times last year, there were actually two jobs available for every job-seeker. This year, the unemployment rate has continued to hover around a record low.” [Axios]
Next border crisis: Holding pattern in Mexico
Immigrants ride atop a freight train while en route to the U.S.-Mexico border near Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, on May 10. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images
“The U.S. side of the Southwest border is surprisingly quiet two weeks after President Biden's new limits on asylum took effect. But a backlog of tens of thousands of migrants threatens a humanitarian crisis on the Mexico side, Axios' Stef Kight reports.
Why it matters: Mexico's shelters are holding as much as six times their capacity. Makeshift camps continue to pop up all over. Intense summer heat is coming — and migrants hoping to enter the U.S. keep arriving from points south.
More than 25,000 migrants were still in shelters along the border and elsewhere in Mexico as of May 19, according to data collected by the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Hundreds more have formed makeshift camps in Mexican cities along the border. Many others have rented apartments or found other temporary housing.
Crowding has strained local water and sanitation systems. And officials worry about health dangers posed by the coming heat.
Between the lines: Biden officials have touted a rapid decline in the number of migrants trying to illegally cross into the U.S. The number fell from a record 10,000+ crossings a day before the end of pandemic-era migration restrictions known as Title 42, to less than 4,000 shortly after.
But the masses U.S. officials have been tracking in northern Mexico as poised to cross into the United States haven't turned back — they're just in a holding pattern south of the border.” [Axios]
Trump held ‘dress rehearsal’ for raid
Former President Trump poses for photos yesterday while playing in a LIV Golf pro-am at his Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP
“President Trump and aides carried out what prosecutors called a ‘dress rehearsal’ at Mar-a-Lago for moving government documents he didn't want to return, The Washington Post reports.
During the episode, which occurred before Trump received a subpoena in May 2022, ‘Trump allegedly reviewed the contents of some, but not all, of the boxes containing classified material,’ The Post reports.
Why it matters: Federal prosecutors are compiling evidence of actions by Trump that they view as signs of obstruction as the federal government sought return of classified documents. The investigation appears to be winding down, with potential indictments to follow.
The day before a meeting with federal officials at Mar-a-Lago last year, a maintenance worker helped an aide — Walt Nauta, who was Trump’s valet in the White House — move boxes into a storage room, the N.Y. Times reports:
A Trump spokesperson told Axios: ‘This is nothing more than a targeted, politically motivated witch hunt against President Trump that is concocted to meddle in an election and prevent the American people from returning him to the White House.’” [Axios]
Covid
“Researchers say they’ve come up with a list of symptoms that can reliably classify long Covid, opening the door to more research and better treatment of the disabling condition. The study is the first research to emerge from a nearly $1.2 billion investment into the disease. The project followed more than 13,000 adults at more than 200 study sites as part of the National Institutes of Health’s Covid research initiative. The new criteria codifies 12 symptoms of long Covid like fatigue, brain fog, heart palpitations and chronic cough. The symptoms are weighted according to how likely they are to appear in people who have long Covid compared with those who don’t. The search for long Covid treatments has been stymied by the lack of a biomarker, something that doctors can test for or measure. Several well-known diseases lack a biomarker, forcing doctors to examine a series of symptoms to make a diagnosis.” [CNN]
Peru
“Peruvian security forces carried out deadly attacks against protesters with ‘extrajudicial executions’ and ‘widespread use of lethal ammunition’ earlier this year, according to a report from human rights group Amnesty International. The country’s weeks-long protest movement began in December 2022, sparked by the impeachment and arrest of former President Pedro Castillo and fueled by dissatisfaction over living conditions and inequality. While protests occurred throughout the nation, the worst violence was in the rural and indigenous south. Of the 25 deaths documented by Amnesty International, 15 of the victims were younger than 21. Peruvian authorities have held a different party line, praising the country’s security forces for quelling the discontent and claiming they acted in self-defense.” [CNN]
Deep Pockets, Deep Friendship
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 24.Alexander Astafyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images
“Russia and China signed a series of bilateral agreements on Wednesday that strengthen the two countries’ economic ties. The deals come at a time when Moscow is increasingly looking to Beijing for economic and political support to offset the impact of Western sanctions and international isolation over the war in Ukraine.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the agreements—which involve deepening investment in trade services, promoting Russian agricultural exports to China, and furthering sports cooperation—during a visit to Beijing, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. It is the highest-profile trip to China by a Russian official since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, though Xi visited Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he called his ‘dear friend,’ in Moscow this past March. Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, is set to visit Russia on Friday.
The two countries have increased trade since the start of the war. The first three months of this year saw trade between Russia and China reach $53.8 billion, a nearly 40 percent increase from the same period the year prior.
Meanwhile, a new Gallup poll found that, since the war started, Russia’s neighbors—including those traditionally favorable to it—have taken on a dimmer view of the country’s leadership. According to Gallup, ‘In four countries historically sympathetic to Russian leadership—Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan—the percentage who disapprove now exceeds the percentage who approve.’ Disapproval also rose in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Last week, China—not Russia—held a Central Asia summit, where Xi unveiled plans for development and pledged a ‘new blueprint’ for the region.” [Foreign Policy]
“Joining the party. Umit Ozdag, leader of Turkey’s far-right, anti-migrant Victory Party, announced his support for Turkey’s main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Kilicdaroglu is going head-to-head with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a presidential runoff election this Sunday.
Ozdag said that he decided to support Kilicdaroglu after the two spoke on the matter of repatriating millions of migrants currently living in Turkey. Turkey hosts the world’s largest refugee population, including 3.7 million Syrians, and high inflation and economic turmoil, as well as the ongoing recovery from the devastating earthquake earlier this year, have made immigration a major campaign issue. Ozdag told reporters that Kilicdaroglu ‘has stated very clearly that refugees should return to their homeland and that this is the policy he will implement.’
Ozdag may have endorsed Kilicdaroglu, but Sinan Ogan, who placed third in the first round of the presidential election on May 14, endorsed Erdogan. In the first round, Erdogan received 49.5 percent of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu got 44.9 percent. Ogan, who was the joint candidate for a small conservative parties’ alliance that included Ozdag’s Victory Party, secured a humble 5.2 percent.” [Foreign Policy]
“Kyiv courts Africa. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba began his tour of Africa this week with the goal of encouraging African leaders to support Ukraine. ‘Important negotiations lie ahead with African leaders and business,’ Kuleba wrote on Instagram, citing in particular the need for African support to keep Ukrainian grain exports flowing uninterrupted via the Black Sea. The visit is part of a broader project by Ukraine’s government to try to court favor with the global south, which has so far taken a more ambivalent view of Russia’s war in Ukraine than many countries in Europe and North America.
Russia, for its part, plans to hold a Russia-Africa summit in July in St. Petersburg. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited the continent last year and this year. Kuleba, too, went to Africa last fall, but cut his trip short when Russia launched a missile campaign across Ukraine.” [Foreign Policy]
“Against activism? German police carried out raids in seven different states on Wednesday, targeting climate activists who in recent months have staged high-profile acts of civil disobedience to bring attention to climate change. The activists, part of a group known as Last Generation, have glued themselves to roads to block traffic and thrown food at famous works of art, among other protest activities.
Now they are being investigated on suspicion of supporting or forming a criminal organization, according to the police, though there is debate in Germany as to whether or not these actions constitute criminal activity. Two activists arrested Wednesday have been accused of planning to sabotage an oil pipeline. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called Last Generation’s tactics ‘completely crazy,’ while some politicians have said that campaigners should be hit with jail sentences. According to polling, most Germans disagree with the group’s tactics, but many also believe they have the right to campaign peacefully.” [Foreign Policy]
“Would you like to be buried amid mushrooms? On the off chance that your answer is ‘yes, ‘there is good news. A Dutch inventor is ‘growing’ coffins by mixing the root structure of mushrooms, known as mycelium, with hemp fiber. The mushroom coffins break back down and deliver remains to the earth in under two months (traditional wooden coffins, by comparison, can take years to degrade). Loop Biotech, the company that produces the coffins, apparently also grows urns that come with saplings, which can be buried, broken down, and then used to feed a new tree.” [Foreign Policy]
May 26, 2023
Good morning. We’re covering a Ukrainian counteroffensive….
Ukrainian troops.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
Any day now
“Retaking land occupied by an enemy during war is a brutally difficult task. But a military trying to do so usually has one big advantage: surprise. The occupying force does not know when or where the attackers will strike.
In 1944, the U.S. and its allies tricked the Nazis into believing that an invasion of France would take place on a different part of the Atlantic coast than it did. Today, Ukraine is similarly hoping to surprise Russia with the start of a spring or summer counteroffensive. The Russians know that a major attack is coming but not the form it will take.
The outcome of that counteroffensive could shape the outcome of the war. A successful campaign by Ukraine, retaking territory that Russia now controls, could cause President Vladimir Putin to fear outright defeat and look for a face-saving peace deal. A failed counteroffensive could cause Ukraine’s Western allies to wonder whether the war is winnable and potentially push Ukraine toward an unfavorable truce.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll preview the coming phase of the war, with help from colleagues covering it. The counteroffensive could start at any point over the next several weeks.
The land bridge
The so-called land bridge that Russia has established in southeastern Ukraine is likely to be the focus:
Source: Institute for the Study of War | Data as of May 22, 2023. | By The New York Times
The southern edge of the land bridge is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces invaded and seized almost a decade ago. Since the larger war began last year, Putin has also taken control of territory that connects Crimea to Russia, including the port city of Mariupol and much of the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine. ‘The Ukrainians want to break the land bridge,’ Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies in Washington, told me.
The territory that Russia controls gives it several strategic advantages. One, Ukraine is cut off from about half of its coastline. Two, the territory includes a nuclear plant near the city of Zaporizhzhia that is a major producer of electricity.
Three, and perhaps most significantly, Russia can more easily supply its troops in Crimea. The land bridge is one of two routes for Russia’s military supplies to Crimea and towns in southern Ukraine, according to Andrew Kramer, The Times’s Kyiv bureau chief. (The other is the Kerch Strait.)
Punching through
Experts have compared the war’s recent months to World War I, with both sides dug into trenches and neither making much progress. Russia lost tens of thousands of troops this year merely to capture Bakhmut, a marginal city in the Donbas.
Ukraine hopes that its counteroffensive will end this stalemate. Western allies have supplied the Ukrainian military with billions of dollars of equipment and trained its troops at camps in Germany over the past few months. The troops have learned a technique known as combined-arms warfare, in which different parts of the military work together to take territory. Tanks punch through enemy lines by rolling over trenches, for example, and infantry then spread out to hold the area.
‘The counteroffensive will very likely start in multiple places, maybe in the south and the east,’ Julian said. ‘Some of those will be feints. Some will be part of the main efforts.’
Ukraine still has fewer troops and less equipment than Russia, but Ukraine’s military has so far proven more effective — with better morale, smarter tactics and more advanced Western weapons — than Russia’s. The counteroffensive is effectively a bet that Ukraine can use those advantages not just to repel Russia but to retake large territories.
As Thomas Gibbons-Neff, a Ukraine correspondent, said, ‘If Ukraine manages to sever the land bridge, Russian troops will be under further strain and, more importantly, Ukraine will be in a better position to attack farther east and south, toward Crimea.’
Most experts do not believe Ukraine will retake Crimea anytime soon — or that this war will end with Crimea back under Ukrainian control. Still, Ukraine does not need that outcome for the counteroffensive to be a success. Any major progress could cause Putin and his aides to worry that a long war would bring further losses and eventually put Crimea at risk. ‘The Russian people do care about Crimea,’ my colleague Helene Cooper said. Before the Soviet era, the region was part of Russia for decades.
In the favorable scenario for Ukraine, a peace deal in which Russia is expelled from everywhere but Crimea and parts of the Donbas region would become plausible. On the flip side, a failed counteroffensive and an unbroken land bridge would provide Putin with a big psychological victory and a foundation from which to launch future attacks.
An important factor is that Ukraine now has enough weapons for only one major push. If the Ukrainians have not made progress by the fall, when colder and wetter weather makes fighting harder, the Russian land bridge may begin to look impregnable.
As Helene points out, however, Ukraine has frequently exceeded expectations in this war. Even the fall of Bakhmut, while a disappointment, took months longer than analysts expected. In the months ahead, Ukraine’s military will try to accomplish perhaps its most difficult task since repelling Russia’s initial invasion.
For more
Russia struck a medical center in Dnipro, Ukrainian officials said.
The leader of a Russian mercenary group said his troops were starting to leave Bakhmut. They will be replaced by regular Russian forces.
Russia is using Soviet-era bombs that can evade Ukraine’s modern air defenses.
See haunting images of life in Ukraine, captured by Paolo Pellegrin for The Atlantic.” [New York Times]
“Wrong-footed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stronger-than-expected showing in the first round of Turkey’s elections, investors are bracing for the likelihood that his unconventional economic policies are here to stay.
Erdogan took 49.5% of the vote in the May 14 ballot, just shy of the 50% required to secure an outright extension to his 20-year rule.
But his parliamentary alliance won a majority, giving Turkey’s longest-serving leader clear momentum going into Sunday’s runoff despite his vows to stick to a low interest-rate policy critics blame for the country’s cost-of-living crisis.
Campaigning on a promise to return to economic orthodoxy, challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu attracted 45% of the vote. That’s respectable by any measure, but may not be enough to engineer the kind of electoral upset the opposition coalition had hoped for.
Markets have accordingly tempered expectations of an early end to measures that have hit the lira, fueled record inflation and deterred foreign investors. The cost of insuring against a sovereign default over the next five years rose to its highest level in over six months after a nationalist candidate endorsed Erdogan this week, bolstering his potential support.
But Kilicdaroglu is also playing for nationalist swing voters in the second round. He’s won the backing of an anti-immigration party and is heading into the vote with a renewed focus not on the economic chaos but on a promise to send home immigrants, particularly those welcomed by Erdogan from neighboring Syria.
It will soon be clear if that’s enough for the challenger to turn the electoral tide. — Lin Noueihed [Bloomberg]
A street vendor sells Turkish national flags decorated with the image of Kemal Ataturk, founder of the republic, in Bursa on May 18. Photographer: Moe Zoyari/Bloomberg
“It’s not just Brexit that’s dried up the flow of European Union workers the UK used to depend on. From Poland to Portugal, EU economies are generating more jobs and better wages than Britain. The absence of EU workers is exacerbating inflation and widespread staff shortages in the UK economy, denting the popularity of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government.” [Bloomberg]
“Ukraine said air defenses shot down 10 Russian missiles and 25 drones overnight. An explosion damaged buildings in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar, while air defenses downed a missile over the neighboring Rostov region, according to local officials. China’s special envoy Li Hui meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow today at the end of a European tour aimed at brokering peace.” [Bloomberg]
“Holed up at his fortified home in Lahore’s upmarket Zaman Park, Imran Khan is looking increasingly besieged. Behind the scenes there’s a recognition among Pakistan’s military that the former prime minster’s popularity is unmatched and his party must be cut down to size ahead of elections this year, sources say. As Chris Kay, Faseeh Mangi and Muneeza Naqvi report, that means Khan risks meeting a similar fate as previous premiers who have been jailed, exiled or executed following power struggles with Pakistan’s generals.” [Bloomberg]
“North Korea is ramping up efforts to deploy information-technology workers overseas as it increasingly relies on online crimes to fund its weapons programs, US and South Korean officials said. The programmers can make as much as $300,000 a year working abroad — often remotely through freelance platforms with falsified or stolen identification — and can assist in enabling cyberattacks and cryptocurrency thefts that helped Pyongyang earn an estimated $1.7 billion in 2022.” [Bloomberg]
“Japan’s cabinet is set to approve a plan that outlines measures to combat the rising number of heatstroke deaths.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government is pushing back against growing criticism over fiscal management that investors say may push the recession-hit economy into a negative spiral.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the latest leftist leader to be declared persona non grata in Peru, amid a conservative tilt in the Andean nation.
South Africa’s president insisted his country won’t be drawn into taking sides in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, even as it faces pressure from the US and other key trading partners to change course.
The UK government is planning to deport 3,000 asylum seekers per month from next year, a source says, as Sunak comes under rising pressure over his failure to reduce migration.” [Bloomberg]
“To cope with increasingly brutal temperatures, India has to keep its power grid standing — and for now that means digging up ever expanding quantities of coal, the single largest contributor to climate change. Extreme temperatures are increasingly frequent in the world’s most populous country. That’s driving surges in electricity consumption and in turn pushing up demand at vast pits like Gevra, soon to become the largest coal mine in the world.” [Bloomberg]
A canopy made of umbrellas to shelter from the sun in New Delhi on May 19. Photographer: Anindito Mukherjee/Bloomberg
“Peace Through Overwhelming Strength”
South Korea’s K-2 battle tanks fire live rounds during a joint military drill with the United States on May 25 in Pocheon, South Korea.Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
“The U.S. and South Korean militaries held their largest-ever live-fire drills near the North Korean border on Thursday, the first of five rounds of such drills that will be carried out between now and the middle of the next month. The exercises marked seven decades of military alliance between the two countries and were intended to demonstrate their ability to counter threats from North Korea in order to maintain “peace through overwhelming strength.”
The so-called combined annihilation firepower drills involved 2,500 troops and 610 weapons systems, including attack helicopters and tanks. By comparison, the most recent such exercises in 2017 involved about 2,000 troops and 250 weapons systems. The U.S. and South Korean militaries also conducted large field exercises earlier this year.
These live-fire drills follow a visit by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to the White House last month. The visit, which included a state dinner, resulted in a declaration signed by Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden that committed to enhancing nuclear deterrence coordination between the two allies. The declaration also aimed to reassure South Korea that it remains protected under the U.S. nuclear umbrella and thus doesn’t need to consider acquiring its own nuclear arsenal—a diplomatic move that Graham Allison called a ‘big win for Team USA’ and for nuclear nonproliferation.
North Korea previously warned that it would not tolerate what it calls “war rehearsals” and said the United States and South Korea would face unspecified consequences for their “madcap nuclear war racket.” Pyongyang has test-launched more than 100 missiles since the beginning of 2022 in what it says is a response to expanded military drills, though most experts say the primary aim is to improve its weapons development.” [Foreign Policy]
“India’s opposition boycotts inauguration. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to inaugurate a new parliament building in New Delhi this weekend. However, Indian opposition leaders, who say the president, not Modi, should be inaugurating the building, plan to protest the event.
Nineteen parties, including the main opposition Indian National Congress party, have said they made a ‘collective decision’ to boycott. ‘When the soul of democracy has been sucked out from the parliament, we find no value in a new building,’ the parties said in a statement. Modi’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party has in turn accused the opposition of ‘playing political games.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Germany in recession. Europe’s largest economy fell into recession in early 2023 thanks to last year’s energy price shock and its subsequent impact on consumer spending. According to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, the country’s gross domestic product dropped by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of the year, following a drop of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022. A recession is commonly defined as two successive quarters of contraction.
‘The persistence of high price increases continued to be a burden on the German economy at the start of the year,’ the Federal Statistical Office said. ‘This was particularly reflected in household final consumption expenditure, which was down 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2023.’
Natural gas prices are now down to the level they were at in late 2021. And inflation, though still high, is easing, and it’s believed consumer spending is bouncing back, which would mean the recession could be short-lived.” [Foreign Policy]
“Forcible refugee relocation. More than 300 refugees have been rounded up over the past week in Malawi’s capital, Lilongwe, and moved to a government camp roughly 30 miles away. The government alleges that the refugees were taking jobs and opportunities from Malawi’s citizens.
The camp, called Dzaleka, was constructed in 1994 for people fleeing violence in other countries. It was built for 12,000 people, but around 50,000 people are thought to be there currently.
‘[The] government is committed to respect the rule of law by protecting its citizens and people from other countries, including refugees and asylum seekers—some of these people are economic migrants who came to do business and they do not pay tax,’ said Ken Zikhale Ng’oma, Malawi’s minister of homeland security, who warned evictions could spread to other parts of the country.” [Foreign Policy]
Twitter engineering boss Foad Dabiri quits day after DeSantis launch glitches
Image caption,
Mr DeSantis' long-awaited entry into the 2024 race for the White House was hit by technical glitches
By Peter Hoskins and Annabelle Liang
Business reporters
“An engineering chief at Twitter says he is leaving the company a day after the launch of Ron DeSantis' US presidential campaign on the platform was hit with technical glitches.
Foad Dabiri tweeted: ‘After almost four incredible years at Twitter, I decided to leave the nest yesterday.’
Mr DeSantis' entry into the race for the White House was hit by problems as a Twitter livestream malfunctioned.
More than 80% of the firm's workforce has been cut since Mr Musk bought it.
Mr Dabiri did not specify why he had decided to leave Twitter or whether it was related to the problems with the DeSantis event on the platform.
He did not immediately respond to a BBC request for comment. Twitter did not provide a statement on Mr Dabiri's exit when approached by the BBC.
Mr Dabiri, who was the engineering lead for Twitter's Growth organisation, said in a tweet he had ‘experienced two distinct eras’ at the company, before and after it was acquired by the multi-billionaire last year.
In another post, Mr Dabiri said the transition into Twitter's "2.0" was ‘massive and rapid’.
He added: ‘To say it was challenging at the outset would be an understatement.’
However, Mr Dabiri said: ‘Working with @elonmusk has been highly educational, and it was enlightening to see how his principles and vision are shaping the future of this company.’
Issues with a Twitter livestream meant that an event to launch Mr Desantis' bid for the Republican presidential nomination got under way 20 minutes late.
By the time Wednesday evening's Twitter talk had begun in earnest, hundreds of thousands of Twitter users had left the platform.
The Florida governor is viewed as former President Donald Trump's chief rival to be their party's candidate in the 2024 general election.” [BBC]
Magical ways we'll use generative AI
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Every revolution in tech starts with a better way for normal humans to access computing power — from punch cards to the mouse to touchscreens. Chatbots are the next leap, Axios' Ina Fried and Scott Rosenberg write.
Why it matters: A big reason the tech world is so giddy over generative AI is that ChatGPT's conversational fluency helps bring digital powers to everyday users.
What's happening: You'll be able to tell your chatbot to clean up your inbox, change your system settings or connect to a printer.
You won't have to know how to do those things yourself. But that also means individual users may end up with less skill and less direct control.
Zoom in: A number of big players are already using the power of large language models to allow chat-style interaction with their software:
Microsoft this week unveiled a Windows Copilot, which adds a side pane where users can both summon the AI-powered Bing search engine.
Adobe announced a generative fill tool for Photoshop that lets people give ‘descriptive commands’: Put a mountain here or remove this object.
Context: Tech companies have talked for years about natural-language interfaces. Back in the late 1990s, Clippy used to pop up in Word when it looked like you were writing a letter or resume and might need help.
It's only now that computers seem poised to speak our language, rather than humans having to ‘speak computer.’
Reality check: For now, the empty chat window is something of a cipher. It doesn't give you much indication of what it can do or how to useit. And there's no easy way to poke around and get a sense of its capabilities.” [Axios]
Conservatives admit that Bud Light & Target boycotts are about making Pride ‘toxic’ to corporations
Anti-LGBTQ+ trolls Matt Walsh and Michael Knowles finally said the quiet part loud.
By John Russell Thursday, May 25, 2023
Michael KnowlesPhoto: Screenshot
“Amid recent, highly publicized conservative backlash to several corporations partnering with LGBTQ+ artists and activists, two far-right commentators are saying the quiet part loud: Their goal is to make support for the LGBTQ+ community ‘toxic’ to brands.
On Wednesday, Matt Walsh, a host for far-right media outlet The Daily Wire and one of the most virulently anti-trans voices in the country, kicked off a tweet storm about recent calls to boycott brands like Bud Light and Target by explicitly outlining what he says has been the goal from the start.
The pundit accusing LGBTQ+ of grooming is saying he’s the victim of ‘cancel culture’ as people point out his own comments sexualizing children.
‘The goal is to make ‘pride’ toxic for brands,’ Walsh tweeted. ‘If they decide to shove this garbage in our face, they should now that they’ll pay a price. It won’t be worth whatever they think they’ll gain. First Bud Light and now Target. Our campaign is making progress. Let’s keep going.’
On his own Daily Wire show, host Michael Knowles reiterated Walsh’s point. ‘This has been the point that has been building for months now, which is we need to make that symbol toxic, the Pride flag symbol, we need to make that toxic,’ Knowles said. ‘We need to have companies think twice about it.’
‘Everyone was talking about the Dylan Mulvaney incident as being harmful to the Bud Light brand,’ he continued. ‘That’s true. But more importantly, it was harmful to the Dylan Mulvaney brand. Now, other companies are going to think twice before sponsoring Dylan Mulvaney because they don’t want to lose $6 billion in market cap in two days. That’s what we got to do. And then once we make these things culturally toxic or as we’re making these symbols culturally toxic, we’ve got to bring in the cavalry, we’ve got to come back in with more political force to ban some of this stuff and to say no.’
The Bud Light debacle started in early April, when the beer brand partnered with Mulvaney, a trans influencer and popular target for anti-trans trolls, sending her a one-off commemorative beer can with an image of her face on it. Transphobes both online and in the media quickly called for a boycott of parent company Anheuser-Busch’s products. The corporation’s lackluster response to the backlash drew criticism from the LGBTQ+ community and led the Human Rights Campaign to downgrade Anheuser-Busch’s previous 100 percent rating on the organization’s corporate equality index.
On Wednesday, Walsh also tweeted that, ‘The Bud Light boycott will prove to be one of the most significant conservative victories of this decade. It was never just about Bud Light. It was about sending a message.’
And it appears that other brands are getting that message. As Pride Month approaches, both the L.A. Dodgers and Target have faced conservative backlash as well. Earlier this month, the Dodgers canceled an appearance by The Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence at the team’s upcoming Pride Night event due to outcry from Catholic groups who claimed that the drag activist collective makes a mockery of their religion. That decision led to outcry from the LGBTQ+ community, accusing the Dodgers of caving to right-wing extremism, and the team re-invited The Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence to the June 16 event last week.
More recently, Target announced that it would be ‘making adjustments to our plans’ for the retailer’s 2023 collection of Pride products in the wake of particularly vicious attacks. Since the retailer unveiled the collection in early May, anti-LGBTQ+ conservatives have begun recording their visits to the store, either to criticize certain items or to harass employees about the displays. Target locations in South Carolina, Arkansas, and Georgia have reportedly relocated their Pride displays to the back of the stores and removed Pride apparel from mannequins to reduce their visibility. A designer who collaborated with the retailer on several of the products in the collection has reportedly been inundated with hateful messages on social media, including death threats. (In a statement, Target noted that its decision regarding the Pride collection was an effort to ensure the safety of its in-store employees.)
As journalist and activist Erin Reed pointed out, the fact that brands like Bud Light and Target caved so quickly to the right’s anti-LGBTQ+ strategy exposes the limits of corporate allyship that some members of the LGBTQ+ community have been decrying for years.
‘The way that Bud Light and Target are reacting to the far right angry at including LGBTQ+ people is EXACTLY why many of us have railed against corporate pride,’ she tweeted on Wednesday. ‘If your advocacy consists merely of rainbows that disappear at the first gust of fascist wind, it amounts to net harm.’
Reed went on to call on the LGBTQ+ community to support local organizations and host Pride parades free of corporate sponsorship. ‘A 100 person Pride parade with no corporate floats is more helpful to your community than a 10,000 one that excludes all but the handpicked queers with companies waving rainbow flags that will just drop us when it’s convenient to them, leaving us to fight for ourselves.’
On The Daily Blast Live, host Erica Cobb accused Target specifically of ‘performative allyship.’
‘This is the reason why everyone is so up in arms about people monetizing saying that they are allies,’ she said. ‘Allyship is not meant to be comfortable. Why is it not meant to be comfortable? Because the people that you are aligning with aren’t comfortable. The whole point of allyship is to join forces, is to amplify minority voices. That means that you are in it with that group regardless. So, if you are going to back down from what you are doing—essentially just monetizing off of LGBTQIA+—that means that you were never about it to begin with.’” [LGBT Nation]
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
“The Celtics: Boston won Game 5 against the Heat last night, on their way back from a 3-0 series deficit.
N.H.L. survival: An overtime goal from Joe Pavelski saved Dallas’ season in its Game 4 win over Las Vegas last night.
Inside U.S.C.’s mess: Trojans athletic director Mike Bohn resigned a week ago. A new report said he created a ‘toxic atmosphere’ at Cincinnati, his previous employer.” [New York Times]
Johns Hopkins grads get a surprise commencement speaker
“The latest graduates from Johns Hopkins University got a powerful message from a surprise commencement speaker Thursday: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who addressed the students via a livestream from embattled Kyiv. He highlighted how unexpected events − such as a war − can change the course of life, so it’s important to seize the moment at hand.” Read more at USA Today
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses via livestream the graduates of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
Will Kirk/Johns Hopkins University
Bourbon & truffles? Maker's Mark adopts puppy to hunt truffles at its distillery farm
Maggie Menderski
Louisville Courier Journal
“In one hand, I held a gold rush cocktail with a sliver of truffle resting delicately atop an ice cube, and with the other, I scratched the top of a mesmerized puppy's head.
The new working dog at Maker’s Mark Distillery, Star, was obsessed with the garnish in my drink.
Really, everyone involved with the company’s new truffle program is, too.
Truffles are exquisite, high-end morsels that are considered a European delicacy and are most commonly paired with wine or lightly shaved over pasta in fine dining. The small, earthy delights, often associated with Italian cuisine, come with a high price tag as they are difficult to find — this desirable fungus grows about 4 to 6 inches underground.
You're probably most familiar with the black, earthy coloring of truffles, but there are, in fact, white truffles with fine pale skin native to Kentucky that resemble the Italian varieties.
And as luck may have it, Maker’s Mark Distillery in Loretto, Kentucky, sits on a 1,100-acre campus known as Star Hill Farm, that is home to a few of these pungent treats.
About two years ago, the agriculture team brought in a truffle consultant and truffle hunting dog who uncovered truffles growing beneath the ground near the base of the farm’s "mother tree." At least two kinds of truffles are native to the property: Appalachian truffles and Kentucky winter white truffles.
Now, Star Hill Farm is on its way to becoming one of about two dozen truffle farms in the commonwealth.
Maker’s Mark adopted Star, who they suspect is the first-ever truffle hunting dog at a bourbon distillery, and the company has slated four acres for an orchard of 1,000 oak, hazelnut and pecan trees that are preconditioned to grow the native truffles. The team expects it will be about 5-10 years before those saplings can produce the coveted fungus, but through a partnership with NewTown Truffiere near Bowling Green, Kentucky, bourbon truffle-infused cocktails have already made limited appearances on the distillery's cocktail menu….” Read more at USA Today
Custom ketchup
Photo: Kraft Heinz
“Want intense mango ... and a touch of jalapeño ... in your steak sauce?
A new machine from Kraft Heinz lets you mix custom ketchup (and other condiments) the way we do sodas at Coca-Cola Freestyle dispensers, Jennifer A. Kingson writes for Axios What's Next.
Why it matters: Concocting a food or drink at a machine like this is fun — and gives lots of data to the manufacturer, which can create products that reflect popular flavor combos.
The company views the machine as a ‘real-time insight generator’ that'll help it glean the combos people crave.
How it works: First, pick your base sauce — ketchup, ranch, 57 Sauce or BBQ sauce.
Then add an ‘enhancer’ — jalapeño, smoky chipotle, buffalo or mango — and specify an ‘intensity level’ (low, medium, high).
Or go wild and add lots of flavors.
What's next: Kraft Heinz plans to pilot the Remix at restaurants in late 2023 or early 2024, but won't say which ones.” [Axios]
The bottom line: Expect more food and drink machines that let you riff on your fave products.
“Lives Lived: Nicholas Gray helped make the unlikely combination of hot dogs with tropical fruit juices a New York City phenomenon with his eatery, Gray’s Papaya. He died at 86.” [New York Times]