The Full Belmonte, 5/15/2023
“Turkey is likely headed toward a runoff election between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his chief challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The final votes are still being counted, and neither candidate has gotten the 50% of the votes needed to win outright.” [NPR]
Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images
Debt limit
“President Joe Biden is expected to meet Tuesday with congressional leaders on the debt ceiling following "productive" staff-level negotiations over the weekend, two sources familiar with the talks told CNN, as the US barrels toward a deadline that could come as soon as June 1. Negotiators have been able to pinpoint some areas on which congressional staff and the White House can find common ground, including revising the permitting process, rescinding unspent Covid-19 relief funds and potentially cutting spending, the sources said. Biden and the top four congressional leaders, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, held talks on the debt limit last week, but a path forward was still unclear amid key sticking points in negotiations.” [CNN]
North Carolina governor's veto of abortion ban faces 'uphill battle'
North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper affixes his veto stamp to a bill banning nearly all abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy at a public rally Saturday, May 13, 2023, in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Hannah Schoenbaum, AP
“North Carolina's Democratic governor vetoed legislation Saturday that would have banned nearly all abortions in his state after 12 weeks of pregnancy. The veto launches a major test for leaders of the GOP-controlled General Assembly to attempt to override Gov. Roy Cooper's veto after they recently gained veto-proof majorities in both chambers. Cooper and allies have said the bill in practice will shut down clinics that cannot afford major upgrades mandated by new licensing standards and make it nearly impossible for women who live in rural areas or work long hours to access abortion services. The bill was the Republican response to last year's Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.” Read more at USA Today
States are sending people to college for free to fight a teacher shortage.
“The idea: Apprenticeships allow trainees to make money while they learn the craft and earn their credentials. In the past 17 months, programs have been certified in 16 states.
Why is there a teacher shortage? It’s a combination of low pay, exhaustion and a feeling of being increasingly under attack, experts say.” [Washington Post]
Ukraine’s leader privately plotted attacks in Russia, leaked documents show.
“The details: President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed occupying Russian cities and pined for long-range missiles to hit Russian targets, according to U.S. intelligence files.
What else to know: Another leak showed the chief of the Wagner mercenary group offering to give Russian troop locations to Kyiv if Ukraine withdrew from the city of Bakhmut.
The big picture: These are part of a broader leak of U.S. secretsthat surfaced on the Discord messaging platform.” [Washington Post]
Thailand elections: Voters deliver stunning blow to army-backed rule
By Jonathan Head
In Bangkok
Thai voters have delivered a stunning verdict in favour of an opposition party that is calling for radical reform of the country's institutions.
“Early results show Move Forward exceeding every prediction to win 151 of the 500 seats in the lower house.
It's now 10 seats ahead of what was the frontrunner, Pheu Thai, led by ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter.
Analysts are calling this a political earthquake that represents a significant shift in public opinion.
It is also a clear repudiation of the two military-aligned parties of the current government, and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led a coup that ousted an elected government in 2014. The governing coalition won only 15% of the seats.
‘We didn't leave any stones unturned,’ Move Forward's 42-year-old leader Pita Limjaroenrat told the BBC. ‘People have had enough in the last decade. Now, it's a new day.’
Pheu Thai, the second-largest party, has said it has agreed to join Move Forward and four smaller opposition parties, giving them a coalition of more than 60% of seats in the new parliament.
However, that still isn't enough to outvote the 250-strong unelected senate, which was appointed by Mr Prayuth, and are allowed to join the vote in parliament for the next administration. They are likely to object to Move Forward's progressive agenda, in particular its pledge to amend the controversial lese majeste law.
In the political negotiations which lie ahead, many Thais fear the military and its backers may yet try to block the winning parties from taking office. A military coup is unlikely, but yet another court ruling to disqualify Move Forward on a technicality, as happened to its predecessor Future Forward in 2020, is possible.
Image caption,
Mr Pita addressing the media on Monday
The other question is how well Move Forward and Pheu Thai, whose relations in the last parliament were sometimes fractious, can work together. Mr Pita, a Harvard University graduate and a skilled parliamentarian, is still untested in the more ruthless art of stitching together and sustaining a coalition.
But that uncertainty doesn't change the fact that the people of Thailand woke up to a changed political landscape this morning.
‘The majority of votes reflect the need to escape from the 'Prayuth regime', and the yearning for change,’ says Prajak Kongkirati, a political scientist from Thammasat University. ‘It shows that people believe in the Move Forward demand for change - many more people than predicted.’…
It would have once been unthinkable that Move Forward, a party calling for wholesale changes to Thailand's bureaucracy, its economy, the role of the military, and even the laws protecting the monarchy, could win more seats and votes than any of its rivals….Read more at BBC
Ukraine
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in the United Kingdom today to meet with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, days after the UK delivered multiple "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles to Kyiv. The two leaders are set to discuss the need for "urgent support" for the country, as Ukraine builds momentum for its highly-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces. In the coming hours, Sunak will announce a new package of military support for Ukraine that will include "hundreds" of air defense missiles, Downing Street said in a statement. The UK is the latest stop on Zelensky's tour of Ukraine's European allies. He met with the Italian prime minister and Pope Francis in Rome on Saturday, and on Sunday he met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.” [CNN]
Cyclone Mocha
“The United Nations and other humanitarian organizations are monitoring Cyclone Mocha, which slammed into Myanmar on Sunday with powerful wind gusts of over 195 mph. The full impact of the storm is not yet known as officials continue to encounter difficulties contacting people due to downed power lines. However, aid groups warn that early reports suggest the damage is "extensive." It was feared that Mocha would hit Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh — which many consider to be the world's largest refugee camp — but the tropical cyclone made landfall further south near Sittwe, Myanmar. A spokesperson for the International Rescue Committee in Bangladesh told CNN it was a "close call" for those living in Cox's Bazar, where about 1 million members of the stateless Rohingya community live in fragile shelters.” [CNN]
“Argentina’s beleaguered authorities are set to unveil a set of emergencymeasures today to try and get a grip on currency losses as inflation spirals out of control in an election year, sources say. The steps include an increase of 600 basis points in the benchmark interest rate to 97%, while boosting intervention in the foreign exchange market to contain a selloff in the peso, Patrick Gillespie reports.” [Bloomberg]
Vice Media
“Vice Media filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy today to facilitate a sale of the company and safeguard its future, according to court documents and a statement from the struggling media group. A group of creditors made a conditional bid for "substantially all of the company's assets," Vice said. The lenders had agreed to provide approximately $225 million and would assume "significant liabilities" upon closing of the deal. The plan to sell the company comes less than a month after the end of its popular program "Vice News Tonight" and as news outlets grapple with an evolving media landscape. Last week, a major Paramount division said it will shutter MTV News, and a month ago BuzzFeed announced it would eliminate its news division.” [CNN]
AI's loneliness explosion
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“Loneliness in the U.S., which spiked during the isolation of COVID, remains a public health ‘crisis’ — and now the advent of AI-driven chatbots could make actual human contact even scarcer, Axios' Ryan Heath reports.
Why it matters: Experts worry that AI might further cocoon people from the relationships and conversations they need.
What's happening: There aren’t enough therapists and counselors in the U.S. to support every lonely person. AI-based services can be scaled to poorly served regions and offered 24/7.
But some mental-health experts worry risks from AI tools offering health services without regulatory approval outweigh potential benefits.
The big picture: Three in four Americans say they experience loneliness.
Surgeon General Vivek Murthy says the effects can be equivalent to smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day.
AI-powered companions, pets and mental health support services are already being drafted to fight the loneliness epidemic:
Virtual therapists can help veterans reluctant to open up to a person, and people struggling to access in-person therapy in their native languages.
AI conversations can be a boon for the 77% of Americans who want to age in their own homes. Beyond small talk, AI companions can help with fall detection.
AI pets are booming:
They can include realistic programmed personalities — plus tails that wag.
What we're watching: Replika — an American-trained companion — sells itself as a customized AI friend.
After some Replika users pushed their AI relationships in an erotic direction, the company tried to ban adult content — but recently allowed customers whose accounts predated the rule change to continue their erotic role-play.” [Axios]
Scoop: Trump's CNN secret
Photo: CNN
“President Trump got more aggressive — and more dismissive of moderator Kaitlan Collins — as last week's CNN town hall continued. Now we know one reason why:
Backstage during the first commercial break, Axios has learned, Trump adviser Jason Miller — as if psyching up a boxer in his corner or egging on a bully — showed Trump moments-old tweets from Democrats blasting CNN and saying Trump was winning.
Why it matters: Trump, who had been getting miffed at Collins' persistent questioning, went out all pumped up for the second block.
‘He was the leader of the free world again,’ a Trump confidant told us gleefully.
Between the lines: Trump craves approbation to the point that some aides used to carry around positive polls about him so they could whip them out to show him as a little treat if he started getting grumpy.
Among the tweets Trump was shown was one by Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who posted 23 minutes into the town hall (before the first commercial break at about 8:40 p.m. ET):
‘CNN should be ashamed of themselves. They have lost total control of this 'town hall' to again be manipulated into platforming election disinformation, defenses of Jan 6th, and a public attack on a sexual abuse victim.’
‘The audience is cheering him on and laughing at the host.’
Trump also was shown a tweet by former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who wrote 31 minutes into the show: ‘This #CNNTownhall is shaping up to be a clear win for Trump, certainly in the Republican field and probably overall.’
The Lincoln Project, 16 minutes in: ‘Call this town hall what it is: a CNN sponsored Trump 2024 fundraiser. Disgraceful.’
Advisers' advice to Trump in the break: Keep doing what you're doing.
What's next: Trump's team is talking to several networks about high-profile interviews — and more town halls.” [Axios]
VR role-playing teaches empathy
The legendary Satchel Paige of the Kansas City Monarchs. Image: Derek Ham
“New virtual-reality technology allows users to experience the triumphs and discrimination of a Negro League-era baseball player — or try to deal with xenophobia as a Muslim on a plane, Axios' Russell Contreras reports.
Why it matters: The new experiences go well beyond previous VR offerings involving racial issues, which were more like short films.
What's happening: VR games currently have a small user base. But the commercial potential for educators and gamers is promising. Apple and others are considering getting into the space.
A project released in March called ‘Barnstormers: Determined to Win’ lets users to travel back to the 1940s as a player in the Negro leagues.
The leagues were present in the U.S. mostly in the first half of the 1900s, when African Americans weren't allowed in the major leagues.
In "Barnstormers," players can try to hit a fastball from pitching legend Satchel Paige or play the field while Josh Gibson, one of baseball's greatest hitters, is at the plate.
After the game, users can experience a virtual world of segregation and the baseball players try to navigate it. Players talk about their struggles, and users can see poverty and inequality in the urban areas around them.
‘This isn't a pity party story. This is a story of these great men on the field,’ creator Derek Ham told Axios.
MIT researchers recently developed the VR role-playing project "On the Plane," which simulates discrimination against a Malaysian American woman.
Players can take on the role of characters from various backgrounds while engaging in dialogue with others and making in-game choices.
A non-VR game, "MLB The Show 23" — for PlayStation, Xbox and Switch — features a mode focused on the Negro leagues.” [Axios]
New TSA look
TSA's new facial recognition technology at BWI. Photo: Julia Nikhinson/AP
“A passenger walks up to an airport security checkpoint, slips an ID card into a slot and looks into a camera atop a small screen. The screen flashes ‘Photo Complete’ and the person walks through — without having to hand over their identification to the TSA officer sitting behind the screen.
It's part of a TSA pilot at 16 airports across the country, AP reports.
How it works: Travelers put their driver's license into a slot that reads the card — or place a passport against the glass on a reader.
Then they look at a camera on a screen the size of an iPad, which captures their image and compares it to the ID.
A TSA officer is still there, and signs off on the screening.
The airports are Atlanta, Boston, BWI, DCA, Denver, Detroit, DFW, Las Vegas, LAX, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, San Jose, and Gulfport-Biloxi and Jackson in Mississippi.
The new kiosks aren't at every checkpoint.” [Axios]
The NBA conference finals are set.
“In the Eastern Conference: Jayson Tatum scored 51 pointsyesterday as Boston beat Philadelphia, 112-88. The Celtics host the Miami Heat in Game 1 on Wednesday (8:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT).
In the Western Conference: The Denver Nuggets take on the Los Angeles Lakers. Game 1 is tomorrow in Denver (8:30 p.m. on ESPN).
When are the NBA Finals? Game 1 is June 1. Find the full schedule here.” [Washington Post]
NBA play-offs: Jayson Tatum's 51-point haul leads Boston Celtics to series win
“Jayson Tatum led the Boston Celtics to a 112-88 game-seven victory over the Philadelphia 76ers to reach the NBA Eastern Conference finals.
Tatum's 51 points beat the game-seven record of 50 set by Golden State's Stephen Curry against the Sacramento Kings earlier this month.
He also added 13 rebounds, five assists and a couple of steals.
Boston will now face the Miami Heat - the team they they beat in seven games in last year's conference finals.
The opening game of the series takes place on Thursday at 01:30 BST.
The Celtics defence restricted NBA Most Valuable Player Joel Embiid, who was held to 15 points….” Read more at BBC