The Full Belmonte, 5/11/2023
Former President Donald Trump and CNN's Kaitlan Collins.
CNN town hall
“CNN hosted a town hall Wednesday with former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. Once again, he refused to concede that he lost the 2020 election and repeated false claims about it being stolen. Taking questions from New Hampshire Republicans at the town hall moderated by ‘CNN This Morning’ anchor Kaitlan Collins, Trump similarly made false and unsubstantiated claims about the violence on January 6, 2021, the economy and his handling of records after leaving the White House. It was his first appearance on CNN since 2016, but analysts say it was also a display that his combativeness, election denialism and untamed fury remain much the same since his time in office.” [CNN]
Trump's newsy CNN performance
Photo: CNN
“Forget the theatrics in former President Trump’s falsehood-filled town hall on CNN, and the Twitter-bubble hysterics. Trump actually made lots of news at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, N.H., last night, Axios' Alex Thompson and Sophia Cai report:
He inserted himself into the delicate negotiations over the debt ceiling and said congressional Republicans should let the U.S. government default unless Democrats agree to ‘massive’ budget cuts.
He downplayed the potential fallout from a default, saying it’s largely ‘psychological’ and could be ‘a bad week, or a bad day.’
He promised to pardon ‘a large portion’ of his supporters who rioted at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, while saying that ‘a couple of them probably got out of control.’
Asked five times whether he’d sign a national abortion ban, Trump never said yes or no. ‘President Trump is going to make a determination what he thinks is great for the country,’ he said.
He refused to call Vladimir Putin a war criminal over the killing of Ukrainian civilians: ‘If you say he’s a war criminal, it will be a lot tougher to get a deal to get this thing stopped.’
He repeatedly dodged whether he wants Ukraine or Russia to win.
He refused to commit to recognizing the 2024 election results unless he deems it an ‘honest election.’
Photo: CNN
Reality check: Trump repeated many of his long-held falsehoods about the 2020 election and other topics, arguing: ‘Unless you’re a very stupid person … most people understand what happened was a rigged election.’
He made contradictory claims about his January 2021 call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, in which Trump pressured Raffensperger to overturn the state’s 2020 election results — a call that’s being investigated by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.
He falsely claimed: ‘I didn’t ask [Raffensberger] to find anything.’ Trump later conceded: ‘I said, 'You owe me votes because the election was rigged.’
He denied it took him three hours to tell Jan. 6 rioters to go home, which is contradicted by his tweets that day.
He said he ‘did finish’ the border wall. In fact, most of his wall construction was replacing existing barriers. Only a few dozen miles of new wall were built along the nearly 2,000-mile Southwest border during his term.
Above: President Biden's tweet as the town hall ended.” [Axios]
Santos indicted; Trump revives false ‘rigged election’:
© Associated Press / J. David Ake | The Capitol in 2022.
“Even by Washington standards, events of consequence piled up almost faster this week than Morning Report could type.
Former President Trump, previously indicted on criminal charges in New York and still under investigation in Georgia and by the Justice Department, was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in a civil suit Tuesday. Last night, he appeared live on CNN and encouraged Republican and independent voters in the New Hampshire audience, who applauded his disinformation-filled narrative with gusto, to return him to the White House next year.
‘This place was rocking and rolling,’ Trump said of his tenure in the Oval Office. ‘We had the greatest economy in the world.’
The leading candidate for his party’s nomination next year offered a jumble of economic analyses, saying U.S. default ‘could be very bad. It could be, maybe, nothing. Maybe it's — you have a bad week or a bad day, but, look, you have to cut your costs. … Get all that money that was wasted. And if they don't get rid of that, you'll have to default.’
The Hill’s Niall Stanage in the Memo: Five takeaways from Trump on CNN.
The New York Times: Trump’s falsehoods and bluster overtake CNN town hall.
NBC News: CNN’s New Hampshire audience laughed with appreciation and applauded many of Trump’s boasts.
The New York Times: President Biden’s Twitter reaction to Trump on CNN (with a Biden-Harris fundraising appeal): ‘It’s simple, folks. Do you want four more years of that?’
Washington’s focus on the debt limit is like a ticking economic bomb that Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have been tossing back and forth since January. Both men are politically vulnerable, and each blames the other for either building the bomb or lighting the fuse. This week they traded blistering rhetoric in public, steered closer to a cliff and then deputized aides to sketch out possible solutions to chew over on Friday when they meet again in the Oval Office.
‘We still have time to do a whole deal,’ the president told reporters, describing Friday’s meeting as the opening for Republican leaders to be specific about government funding they’d cut to achieve proposed budget savings. ‘Are they going to make sure they continue to fund the Defense Department? Are they not going to cut veterans? Well, if they're not going to do that, what are they going to cut? … Are they going to cut more folks out of the Border Patrol? What are they going to do?’
During a campaign-style speech delivered in New York, Biden on Wednesday addressed the impasse (The Associated Press). ‘America is the strongest economy in the world, but we should be cutting spending and lowering the deficit without a needless crisis,’ he said.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), a veteran of Senate horse-trading with Biden and other presidents during past fiscal impasses and budget combat, insists ‘the country will not default.’
‘There has to be an agreement between the Speaker and the president, and there will be, and the sooner they get started talking directly or through their designee the sooner we'll get an outcome,’ the Kentucky senator told reporters.
And finally, there’s the Republican fabulist from the House, Rep. George Santos (N.Y.), who is in serious legal trouble and whose vote is important to the math that helps McCarthy steer his party’s narrow majority.
The young congressman, who in January relinquished committee assignments amid controversies about his inflated biography and campaign finances, pleaded not guilty to federal fraud charges Wednesday. Free on a $500,000 bond after his arrest, Santos said he will not resign. House GOP leaders said a presumption of innocence will keep Santos in Congress unless he’s convicted, opts to step down or is defeated by voters in his Long Island district. McCarthy, reacting to his arrest, said he would not support Santos for reelection (The Hill).” [The Hill]
© Associated Press / Michael Conroy | Former President Trump in Indianapolis in April.
Title 42 ends as Title 8 ushered in at the border
“When Title 42 expires on Thursday, the Biden administration has promised to return to enforcing Title 8, the nation's immigration law. Legal provisions for asylum will be back in force, as will civil penalties for immigration violations and criminal prosecution for unlawful border crossings.
More than two years after President Joe Biden started a court battle to end Title 42 − a law that has kept thousands of migrants out of the country − the border is at an inflection point.
•Hundreds of migrants turned themselves in for immigration processing in El Paso, Texas, after learning federal authorities would begin ‘targeted enforcement’ to round them up. States are taking the crisis into their own hands, with a combination of militaristic and humanitarian methods.
•How criminal prosecution of immigration offenses under Title 8 will factor into the Biden administration's border strategy — and whether jail time will serve as a deterrent during a new era of migration — remain open questions.” [USA Today]
A migrant woman and her daughter swim back to Mexico after reaching the US bank of the Rio Grande and being stopped by members of the US National Guard in Matamoros, state of Tamaulipas, Mexico, on May 10, 2023.
ALFREDO ESTRELLA, AFP via Getty Images
House Republican Report Finds No Evidence of Wrongdoing by President Biden
After months of investigation and many public accusations of corruption against Mr. Biden and his family, the first report of the premier House G.O.P. inquiry showed no proof of such misconduct.
“After four months of investigation, House Republicans who promised to use their new majority to unearth evidence of wrongdoing by President Biden acknowledged on Wednesday that they had yet to uncover incriminating material about him, despite their frequent insinuations that he and his family have been involved in criminal conduct and corruption.
At a much-publicized news conference on Capitol Hill to show the preliminary findings of their premier investigation into Mr. Biden and his family, leading Republicans released financial documents detailing how some of the president’s relatives were paid more than $10 million from foreign sources between 2015 and 2017.
Republicans described the transactions as proof of ‘influence peddling’ by Mr. Biden’s family, including his son Hunter Biden, and referenced some previously known, if unflattering, details of the younger Mr. Biden’s business dealings. Those included an episode in which he accepted a 2.8-carat diamond from a Chinese businessman. G.O.P. lawmakers also produced material suggesting that President Biden and his allies had at times made misleading statements in their efforts to push back aggressively against accusations of wrongdoing by Hunter Biden.
But on Wednesday, the Republicans conceded that they had yet to find evidence of a specific corrupt action Mr. Biden took in office in connection with any of the business deals his son entered into. Instead, their presentation underscored how little headway top G.O.P. lawmakers have made in finding clear evidence of questionable transactions they can tie to Mr. Biden, their chief political rival….” Read more at New York Times
West Virginia Suspends Bob Huggins and Cuts His Pay Over Homophobic Slur
Huggins, the men’s basketball coach at West Virginia since 2007, must also take sensitivity training after using the slur twice and mocking Catholics on a radio program this week.
By Adam Zagoria
May 10, 2023
“Bob Huggins will keep his job as the head men’s basketball coach at West Virginia, the university said Wednesday, but will be suspended for three games and receive a pay cut after he used an anti-gay slur twice and derisively mocked Catholics during an interview with a Cincinnati radio station this week.
The university said it would rework Huggins’s contract and reduce his annual salary by $1 million, down from $4.15 million. He will be required to undergo sensitivity training and will miss the first three games of the 2023-24 season.
In a joint statement, the university’s president and athletic director said Huggins, the winningest active coach in Division I men’s basketball, would be immediately fired if he made any similar offensive comments in the future.
During an interview Monday on the Cincinnati radio station 700 WLW, Huggins described fans of Xavier University, a Jesuit institution, using a homophobic slur and underscored the school’s religious affiliation. While discussing his 16-season tenure with the University of Cincinnati and the school’s intracity rivalry with Xavier, Huggins twice directed a homophobic slur toward Xavier fans, referring to those who would ‘throw rubber penises on the floor, and then say they didn’t do it.’
Huggins, 69, issued an apology as part of the university’s statement, saying he deeply regretted his comments and the hurt they had caused.
‘I have no excuse for the language I used, and I take full responsibility,’ he said in Wednesday’s statement. ‘I will abide with the actions outlined by the University and Athletics leadership to learn from this incident. I have had several conversations with colleagues and friends that I deeply respect and admire over the last 24 hours, and I am keenly aware of the pain that I have caused.’
Aside from the pay cut, Huggins will make a personal donation to Xavier to support its Center for Faith and Justice and its Center for Diversity and Inclusion, though the amount of the donation was not specified. He will also be required to meet with L.G.B.T.Q. leaders from across the state of West Virginia.
In August 2021, Huggins signed a contract extension through the 2023-24 season that made him one of the highest-paid coaches in college basketball. According to his previous contract, Huggins would have had options to coach ‘or extend his relationship’ with the university through June 2027. In Wednesday’s announcement, the university said Huggins’s current contract would be amended to a year-by-year agreement that would end on April 30, 2024.
The university’s statement said the $1 million trimmed from Huggins’s salary would be used to support its L.G.B.T.Q. center, its mental health counseling center and other organizations….” Read more at New York Times
Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
“Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), 89, looking noticeably thinner and frail, arrives at the U.S. Capitol yesterday after 2½ months away following hospitalization for shingles.
Why it matters: Her return gives Senate Democrats their much-needed majority vote as they seek to confirm President Biden's nominees and raise the nation’s debt ceiling in coming weeks. (AP)
Feinstein's absence increased calls by top Democrats for the senator — who has said she won't run for re-election in 2024 — to retire.” [Axios]
The COVID public health emergency is over in the US
“Thursday marks the end of the public health emergency in the United States, more than three years after it was first declared to combat the novel coronavirus by unlocking powerful tools to detect and contain the emerging threat. While it closes a chapter in history, health experts point out the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet over as the virus continues to claim about 1,000 lives each week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To date, more than 1.1 million people in the country have died.” Read more at USA Today
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signs $230M school safety law
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed into law Wednesday a bill aimed at heightening security and offering new safety resources to both public and private schools. Filed prior to the deadly shooting at The Covenant School in Nashville, Lee, a Republican, pushed for additional funding and new security protocols and mental health resources following the tragedy. The $230 million bill prescribes new safety protocols for both public and private schools, requiring emergency drills and increasing security collaboration with state and local law enforcement. It does not restrict access to firearms. Read more at USA Today
Appeals Court Overturns Fraud and Conspiracy Convictions in Varsity Blues Scandal
A three-judge panel found that a lower court made crucial missteps in the trial of Gamal Abdelaziz and John Wilson, the first parents to take their chances in front of a jury.
May 10, 2023
“In a stunning reversal, a federal appeals court overturned the fraud and conspiracy convictions on Wednesday of two parents found guilty of participating in a far-reaching bribery scheme, known as Operation Varsity Blues, which ensnared dozens of wealthy parents who falsified their children’s credentials to gain admission to prestigious universities across the country.
A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit in Massachusetts found that the lower court had made crucial missteps in the trial of Gamal Abdelaziz, a former casino executive, and John Wilson, a private equity financier. The court, however, upheld Mr. Wilson’s conviction on tax fraud.
The appeals court made its decision largely on two technical legal grounds.
First, it ruled that the lower court judge wrongly instructed the jury that admissions slots constituted property. ‘We do not say the defendants’ conduct is at all desirable,’ the decision said. But the appellate judges faulted the government for being too broad in its argument, to the point where ‘embellishments in a kindergarten application could constitute property fraud proscribed by federal law.’
The court also found that the government had failed to prove that the two men agreed to engage in a conspiracy with other parents, who were, like them, the clients of William Singer, known as Rick, a college admissions consultant to the rich, the mastermind of the admissions scheme….” Read more at New York Times
Heather Armstrong, a pioneering mommy blogger, has died.
Heather Armstrong in 2019. (Nathan Congleton/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal/Getty Images)
“How we’ll remember her: She founded the blog Dooce in 2001. Her deeply personal posts gained a huge following and helped change the public’s perception of motherhood.
What we know: Armstrong died by suicide and was found at her home on Tuesday, her boyfriend said. She was 47.” [Washington Post]
Suspect in Natalee Holloway 2005 disappearance case to be extradited to US
“Peru’s government will allow the extradition to the United States of Dutch citizen Joran van der Sloot, the prime suspect in the unsolved 2005 disappearance of American student Natalee Holloway on the Dutch Caribbean Island of Aruba. Holloway, who lived in suburban Birmingham, Alabama, was 18 when she was last seen during a trip with classmates to Aruba. She vanished after a night with friends at a nightclub, leaving a mystery that sparked years of news coverage and countless true-crime podcasts. She was last seen leaving a bar with van der Sloot, then 18 years old.” Read more at USA Today
Joran van der Sloot sits in the courtroom before his sentencing at San Pedro prison in Lima, Peru. Karel Navarro, AP
Sudan
“More than 1,300 Americans have departed Sudan since intense fighting broke out in April between warring Sudanese military factions. The violence over the past several weeks has left hundreds dead and thousands injured, caused tens of thousands to flee their homes and has left the country on the brink of a civil war. Several ceasefires between the parties have not yielded an end to the fighting and have prevented the flow of humanitarian aid into the country. However, the US is now ‘cautiously optimistic’ that there may be an agreement to deliver desperately needed resources and services to the country in the coming days, a State Department official said Wednesday.” [CNN]
Textbook ban
“Florida has rejected dozens of social studies textbooks in K-12 schools that mention social justice, taking a knee and other content of ‘concern.’ Several book publishers recently submitted materials to the state's Department of Education, but nearly 35% were rejected due to ‘inaccurate material, errors and other information that was not aligned with Florida Law,’ the department said this week, citing the state's ‘rigorous standards.’ The move by the Florida Department of Education comes as Republican lawmakers, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, have made widespread efforts to restrict how racism and history are taught in schools. It also comes amid a contentious national debate on the issue.” [CNN]
Mercedes-Benz shooting: Two killed at factory in Germany
Image caption,
The plant in Sindelfingen employs about 35,000 people
“Two people have been killed in a shooting at a Mercedes-Benz factory in south-western Germany, police said.
A 53-year-old man entered the production hall at the plant in Sindelfingen and opened fire, shooting two 44-year-old men.
One of the victims died at the scene, the other died later in hospital. No one else was hurt.
Security staff detained the suspect and handed him to officers who arrested him without resistance, police said.
The incident happened at about 07:45 local time (05:45 GMT), police in the city of Ludwigsburg said.
‘We are deeply shocked and saddened by the tragic news from Sindelfingen this morning. Our thoughts are with the victims, their families and all colleagues on site,’ Mercedes-Benz said in a statement.
Mercedes-Benz produces its S-Class luxury model at the Sindelfingen plant, which employs about 35,000 people.
The firm said the people involved in the shooting had been employed by an external service provider.
The Stuttgart prosecutor's office said there was a single perpetrator and no one outside the factory was involved.
There was no danger to the public, police said.
Germany has some of the strictest gun laws in Europe and authorities say they are planning to tighten them further.
In March a shooting at a Jehovah's Witnesses meeting hall in Hamburg claimed seven lives, including that of an unborn child.
Authorities were also alarmed by a suspected plot to overthrow the government, which led to mass arrests in December.
Current laws require anyone aged under 25 to pass a psychological evaluation before getting a gun licence.
In 2021, there were around one million private gun owners in Germany, according to the National Firearms Registry. They account for 5.7 million legal firearms and firearm parts, most of them owned by hunters.” [BBC]
Sanna Marin: Finnish PM to divorce as she prepares to leave office
Image caption,
Sanna Marin, outgoing Finnish PM
By James Gregory
BBC News
“Finland's outgoing Prime Minister Sanna Marin and her husband Markus Raikkonen have filed for divorce.
"We are grateful for the 19 years together and our beloved daughter," Ms Marin said on Instagram on Wednesday.
The couple married in 2020, when Ms Marin was leading the country's pandemic response, and they share a five-year-old daughter.
She is due to leave office after her centre-left party lost the general election last month….” Read more at BBC
“The combination of an unprecedented lack of rainfall and record-high temperatures gripping southwestern Europe for the second straight year had been projected by scientists – for 2043. The heat they warned about is already here.
It’s a sign of what’s coming elsewhere in Europe and much of the world, and if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced, it could be the new normal. Asia too has been suffering unprecedented heat.
In Europe, Spain is ground zero, with competition for increasingly scarce water resources sparking fights among farmers, environmental activists, local politicians and the central government.
Much of the fruit and vegetables available all year round in supermarkets across the continent are grown in giant greenhouses in the country’s southern desert region of Almería. Now that is under threat, as reservoirs and canals run dry. In an attempt to preserve the little water that’s left, the government in Madrid is limiting supplies farmers can use for irrigation.
Agribusinesses face tough choices, from leaving large swaths of land unplanted to – in some cases – digging illegal wells that further deplete aquifers.
Elsewhere in Europe, leaders are trying to take action before it’s too late. Italy has set up a special unit on drought led by Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and France has a new target to cut water consumption 10% by the end of this decade.
The continent has warmed nearly twice as fast as the rest of the world over the past three decades, resulting in losses in freight passage from record-low river levels, lower electricity output from hydro and nuclear power, and drought-driven crop failures.
For much of Europe, the long-predicted future impact of climate change is now.— Laura Millan [Bloomberg]
Farmer José Manuel Rodríguez irrigates his fields in Letur using water from ditches dug more than a thousand years ago by Muslim rulers of the Iberian Peninsula. Photographer: Maria Contreras Coll/Bloomberg
“Group of Seven nations aim to send a signal to China this month by announcing a joint effort to counter ‘economic coercion.’ But officials are struggling to agree on tangible measures and are still wrangling over how tough to be in their messaging to Beijing, particularly on specific tools that could be deployed against it, sources say.
The US is trying to make it hard for China to say no to engagement by seeking a flurry of meetings and phone calls. Sources say the strategy is aimed at easing tensions and painting President Xi Jinping as recalcitrant if he refuses.” [Bloomberg]
“Armed with more than $30 billion in weapons freshly supplied by its allies, Ukraine is gearing up for a counteroffensive that may push Russia closer to ending its war, or show that neither side has enough firepower to seize the advantage. As Marc Champion reports, Kyiv’s troops will depend on that arsenal to try to retake occupied territory. The question is whether it’s enough.
A top adviser to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv yesterday, as the Brazilian president continues to push for an end to Russia’s war.” [Bloomberg]
“Pakistan’s government called in the military to help quell violent protests after former premier Imran Khan was arrested. At least seven people have been killed and scores more injured in clashes with security forces in the past two days. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif accused protesters of ‘an act of terrorism’ in a televised speech yesterday.” [Bloomberg]
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party activists and Khan supporters clash with police yesterday. Photographer: Aamir Qureshi/AFP/Getty Images
“Graffiti protesting a law to punish criticism of the Thai monarchy is the latest example of broader transformation in Thailand, as a new generation challenges the conservative political establishment. The wave of royal skepticism has found a home in Move Forward, the mainstream group calling for changes to Article 112 to allow greater freedom to discuss the monarchy that’s been surging in the polls ahead of Sunday’s general elections.” [Bloomberg]
“Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip traded fire into a third day today, with rockets and airstrikes defying international efforts to secure a cease-fire.” [Bloomberg]
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to speed up asylum proceedings to deport illegal migrants and enable better integration of those allowed to stay as Russia’s war against Ukraine triggers a new refugee wave in Europe.” [Bloomberg]
“Costa Rica’s days of living beyond its means and running up reckless amounts of debt are over, according to President Rodrigo Chaves, whose fiscal turnaround is winning over currency and bond traders.” [Bloomberg]
“A Chinese-born chemist was convicted in the US for the heist of industrial technology involving the inner linings of Coke cans worth $120 million. Drake Bennett and Jordan Robertson report on a case that shines a light on a threat Western counterintelligence officials have long warned of: Chinese grant programs that encourage scientists to steal trade secrets from foreign companies.” [Bloomberg]
Shannon You, convicted of wire fraud and trade theft, being interviewed by the FBI. Source: United States District Court Eastern District of Tennessee
By David Leonhardt and Lyna Bentahar
Good morning. Abortion access keeps winning elections. But advocates can’t agree on a strategy to hold more ballot initiatives.
Signing a petition in Ohio.Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
A lack of urgency
“Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion access has fared very well when it has appeared on the ballot.
Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont approved abortion-rights amendments to their state constitutions last year. In Kansas and Kentucky — both red states — voters rejected measures that could have led to bans. In Wisconsin this year, the candidate favoring abortion access easily won a judicial election focused on the issue.
The 2024 elections offer supporters of abortion rights an opportunity to continue their winning streak. There are 10 states that both significantly restrict abortion (or may soon) and allow citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives, including Florida, Ohio and Arizona. Placing measures on the ballots there offers progressives a possible double victory — to expand access and energize 2024 turnout among Democratic voters.
But it remains unclear how many of these states will hold referendums.
Advocates have not yet collected the signatures they need in most states, nor have they started a national fund-raising campaign for the effort. At this point, some observers say they would be surprised if even five of the 10 states held initiatives next year.
The situation has the potential to be a major missed opportunity for the abortion-rights movement. One progressive activist told us it would be ‘political malpractice.’
What explains the apparent lack of urgency? In interviews, some activists said that placing a measure on a ballot took time and money, and that they wanted to make sure the initiatives used language that would survive legal challenges. ‘You don’t get two bites at this apple,’ Sarah Standiford of Planned Parenthood Action Fund said.
Other advocates pointed to internal disagreements and disorganization in the movement that have delayed action. The movement has not been able to agree on a national strategy, including whether ballot initiatives should use the word ‘women’ and how far into pregnancy abortion should remain legal.
‘There is just not the command and control that other movements have had,’ another progressive activist said. In the push for same-sex marriage, by contrast, a few major donors and activists played a coordinating role and insisted on urgency.
(Related: ‘Many reproductive-rights advocates still believe that Planned Parenthood’s agenda is too narrow and too cautious,’ Eyal Press writes in The New Yorker. Audm subscribers can listen to that article.)
In the rest of today’s newsletter, we look more closely at the 10 states.
Furthest along
Initiatives seem most likely to happen soon in two states.
In Ohio, a coalition of abortion rights groups is collecting signatures to place an initiative on the ballot this year that would protect access through roughly the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. For now, most abortions remain legal in Ohio, thanks to a court ruling blocking a ban.
In South Dakota, organizers are optimistic that they can collect the signatures needed for an initiative next year. It is a compromise measure that would seek to reinstate the minimum access required by the Roe v. Wade decision. All abortions would be legal in the first trimester (roughly 12 weeks), and some would be in the second trimester.
Early efforts
In several other states, efforts have begun, but they’re less advanced.
In Missouri, advocates have not yet settled on one approach. Some petitions — an early step to putting an initiative on the ballot — would protect most abortion access until 24 weeks of pregnancy. Others would be narrower and let the state enact parental consent laws.
In Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis recently signed a near-total ban, advocates are hoping to place an initiative on the ballot that would allow most abortions until 24 weeks. But the state’s pro-marijuana movement helps highlight the slowness of the effort: Organizers of a 2024 ballot initiative to legalize marijuana have already raised $30 million and collected nearly all the required signatures — while organizers of an abortion initiative are just getting started.
Arizona has tough rules for ballot initiatives, requiring hundreds of thousands of signatures on a petition. ‘That said, we think this fight is more than worth it,’ said Ezra Levin, a founder of Indivisible, a progressive group that’s part of the effort. Levin explained that an initiative could both protect abortion access and generate enough Democratic turnout to help President Biden win an important swing state.
There appears to be less activity in several other states: Arkansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota or Oklahoma. (In Montana, as in Ohio, court rulings have so far prevented bans from taking effect.)
In Oklahoma, activists submitted language for a petition last year, but withdrew it a few months later, saying they needed more preparation.
Counterattacks
Abortion opponents aren’t sitting still. In several states, they are trying to reduce the chances an initiative can pass, as our colleagues Kate Zernike and Michael Wines have explained.
In both Missouri and Ohio, Republican officials want to change the law so any ballot initiative will need 60 percent of the vote to pass. (Florida has had such a law for almost two decades.) Missouri officials are also pushing for ballot language that would summarize an initiative as allowing ‘dangerous, unregulated and unrestricted’ abortions.
‘There’s one reason for all of this,’ said Mallory Schwarz, the executive director of Pro-Choice Missouri, referring to the opponents. ‘They know abortion access is popular.’
Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults between March 27 and April 2, 2023
The bottom line: Polls show that most residents of red and purple states support some abortion restrictions — but most also support some abortion access. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, opinion has shifted left.
Even in many conservative states, ballot initiatives to expand abortion rights would have a good chance of receiving 50 percent of the vote. And 60 percent is not out of the question.
Nonetheless, some states may not hold initiatives anytime soon.
For more: These Times maps track abortion laws in every state.
Democracy isn't ready for its AI test
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“AI-generated content is polluting campaigns around the world ahead of a rare convergence of election cycles in 2024, Axios global tech correspondent Ryan Heath reports.
Why it matters: Around 1 billion voters will head to polls in 2024 in the U.S., India, the European Union, the U.K., Indonesia and Russia. But neither AI companies nor governments have election protections in place.
How it works: AI could upend 2024 elections via ...
Fundraising scams, which can be written and coded more easily via generative AI.
A microtargeting tsunami, since AI lowers the costs of creating content for specific audiences. That includes delivering undecided or unmotivated voters with 'the exact message that will help them reach their final decisions," Darrell West, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center for Technology Innovation, writes.
Incendiary emotional fuel. Generative AI can create realistic images designed to inflame, such as fake photos of a candidate.
Secretary of State Tony Blinken announced Tuesday that the State Department ‘has developed an AI-enabled online Ukraine Content Aggregator to collect verifiable Russian disinformation and then to share that with partners around the world.’” [Axios]
Baptist membership falls
Data: Lifeway Research. Chart: Axios Visuals
“The Southern Baptist Convention, the nation's largest Protestant denomination, reported yesterday that membership ‘continued its downward trajectory’ last year, to 13.2 million from 13.6 million in 2021.
‘The 457,371 members lost is the largest single-year numerical drop in more than 100 years,’ the SBC said. ‘Southern Baptist churches have suffered membership declines of about 3% annually over the past three years.’
Why it matters: This is a vivid new indicator of one of the most consequential megatrends in America — declining confidence in institutions, including the church.
Context: In May 2022, Southern Baptist leaders published a report showing the denomination had suppressed sexual-abuse reports, and survivors faced ‘resistance, stonewalling, and even outright hostility’ from some top leaders.” [Axios]
USC signs two legends' sons
Bronny James (left) and D.J. Rodman. 'Photos: AP
“USC basketball won commitments from the sons of two of the sport's legends:
Bronny James, a high-sch0ol senior who is the oldest child of Lakers superstar LeBron James, announced on social media that he'll play for the Trojans this fall.
D.J. Rodman, son of NBA rebounding great Dennis Rodman, announced on social media that he’s transferring from Washington State.” [Axios]
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
“N.B.A. playoffs: The Knicks and the Warriors staved off elimination with home wins.
N.H.L. playoffs: The Toronto Maple Leafs stayed alive in Game 4 of their second-round series against the Florida Panthers.
Where are the stats? Nearly three years ago, M.L.B. announced an initiative to incorporate Negro League statistics into official record. There has been little progress.” [New York Times]