The Full Belmonte, 4/3/2023
Former President Donald Trump arrives at Palm Beach International Airport in Florida on March 13, 2023.
Trump
“Former President Donald Trump is expected to voluntarily surrender and appear in court Tuesday for his arraignment after being indicted on more than 30 counts related to business fraud. The indictment -- the first of a current or former president in US history -- stems from an alleged 2016 hush money payment cover-up involving adult film star Stormy Daniels. Trump has vowed to fight the charges and even hopes the ordeal will rally his base as he ramps up a 2024 presidential campaign. Meanwhile, the charges have not been revealed and will likely not be public until the indictment is unsealed. Several media outlets, including CNN, have asked a New York judge to unseal the indictment before Tuesday. The news organizations are also asking for permission to broadcast Trump's expected court appearance, but it remains to be seen if the judge will grant these requests.” [CNN]
Trump faces setbacks in other probes as NY case proceeds
By ERIC TUCKER
Surrounded by Army cadets, President Donald Trump watches the first half of the 121st Army-Navy Football Game in Michie Stadium at the United States Military Academy, Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, in West Point, N.Y. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
“WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump faces the most urgent legal challenge of his life this week in New York, where he’s set to be arraigned Tuesday on charges arising from hush money payments during his 2016 campaign.
But as much of the attention will be on the courthouse in lower Manhattan, investigations from Atlanta to Washington will press forward, underscoring the broad range of peril he confronts as he seeks to reclaim the presidency.
The vulnerability Trump faces in Washington alone has become clear over the past month, as judges in a succession of sealed rulings have turned aside the Trump team’s efforts to block grand jury testimony — including from his own lawyer and his former vice president — from witnesses who were, or still are, close to him and who could conceivably offer direct insight into key events.
The rulings directing advisers and aides to testify don’t suggest that the Justice Department is close to bringing criminal charges, nor do they guarantee that prosecutors can secure testimony valuable to a potential prosecution. But they’re nonetheless a key, closed-door win for the government as it investigates whether classified documents were criminally mishandled at Trump’s Florida home and the possible obstruction of that probe, as well as efforts by Trump and his allies to undo the results of the 2020 presidential election…” Read more at AP News
Feds nailing down document case
A Secret Service agent on the wall at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Friday. Photo: Rebecca Blackwell/AP
“The Justice Department and FBI have amassed new evidence pointing to possible obstruction by former President Trump in the investigation into top-secret documents found at Mar-a-Lago, The Washington Post reports.
Why it matters: For all the attention the Manhattan indictment is getting because it's a first, Trump insiders think he faces greater legal jeopardy from the documents case and an election-interference case in Georgia.
Some remarkable detail in The Post story:
Investigators suspect, based partly on security-camera footage, ‘that boxes including classified material were moved from a Mar-a-Lago storage area after [a] subpoena was served, and that Trump personally examined at least some of those boxes.’ Trump acted ‘apparently out of a desire to keep certain things in his possession.’
Prosecutors ‘have collected evidence that Trump ignored requests from multiple advisers to return the documents to the archives over a period of a year ... and that he grew angry after being subpoenaed.’
Investigators ‘have evidence that Trump sought advice from other lawyers and advisers on how he could keep documents after being told by some on his team that he could not.’
Investigators ‘have been asking witnesses if Trump showed classified documents, including maps, to political donors.’” [Axios]
Indictment revives Trump's GOP critics
Jonathan Karl interviews former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at the Willard Hotel in Washington for yesterday's ABC "This Week." Photo: ABC News
“Former President Trump's indictment is enticing Republicans to jump into the anti-Trump lane, setting up a test of how deep his GOP support truly runs, Axios' Alexi McCammond writes.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who announced a presidential run yesterday on ABC's ‘This Week,’ is claiming a ‘non-Trump’ lane: ‘I'm providing an alternative to the former president ... I want to be able to speak to the Trump voters, I want to be able to speak to all the party.’
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is seriously considering a presidential run, says he will never again support Trump. ‘I can't help him. No way,’ he told Axios last week.
Reality check: Hutchinson and Christie, plus New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, represent a tiny slice of the GOP.
Trump has reaped a fundraising bonanza since the indictment news broke, and increased his double-digit lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Most potential '24 rivals are defending him against the indictment, which they haven't seen.
What's next: Trump will spend tonight at his Trump Tower in Manhattan. He'll surrender tomorrow, then make 8:15 p.m. ET remarks at Mar-a-Lago.” [Axios]
Good morning. The status of abortion rights in Wisconsin is a major issue that hangs in the balance in this election.
The Wisconsin State Capitol.Taylor Glascock for The New York Times
A powerful seat
“Wisconsin is a microcosm of the country. It is narrowly divided politically, though Democrats have a slight advantage in the popular vote in statewide elections. And, as in Washington, Republicans have structural advantages in the government that give them outsize power.
Conservatives have controlled the state’s Supreme Court since 2008, and Republicans have held a hammerlock on the Legislature since 2011, when the party drew itself an impenetrable majority after taking control in a wave election.
Tomorrow, Wisconsin will hold an election for a seat on its Supreme Court, and it is no exaggeration to call the race, for a 10-year term, the single most important American election of 2023. It is already the most expensive judicial race in the nation’s history. The candidates and the super PACs supporting them have spent nearly three times as much on this race as in any prior court election.
Why is a single state race crucial? Because whichever side prevails will hold a 4-to-3 court majority, and this is the first American election in which the winner will single-handedly determine two big issues: the fate of abortion rights and whether the state has a functional representative democracy. The winner will also set the course for the 2024 presidential election in a state where fewer than 23,000 votes decided four of the last six such races.
If the liberal candidate, Janet Protasiewicz, wins, Wisconsin will almost certainly become the first state to allow abortion again after outlawing it with last summer’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. And because Democrats are likely to challenge the makeup of the state’s legislative districts if the court has a liberal majority, the near supermajorities that Republicans enjoy in the State Legislature would also probably not survive until the 2024 election.
A victory for the conservative candidate, Daniel Kelly, would mean abortion remains illegal, the gerrymandered maps stay in place, and Wisconsin remains a dysfunctional democracy for the foreseeable future.
Janet Protasiewicz and Daniel Kelly.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times
The biggest prize
Abortion became illegal in the state last June, when the U.S. Supreme Court eliminated the constitutional right to an abortion, throwing the question to the states. Wisconsin’s near-total ban on abortion — enacted in 1849, a year after statehood and seven decades before women could vote — suddenly became the law again.
Protasiewicz (pronounced pro-tuh-SAY-witz) is a judge and former prosecutor from Milwaukee who has so emphasized her support for abortion rights that nobody could be confused about how she’d rule on the 1849 law. In interviews and television advertisements and during the lone general election debate, she has stressed her belief that abortion decisions should be left to women and their doctors, not to state legislators.
Kelly, a conservative former state Supreme Court justice who lost a re-election bid in 2020, has the backing of the state’s leading anti-abortion organizations and has repeatedly stressed his opposition to the practice.
Protasiewicz has bet that her support for abortion rights will energize Democratic voters and persuade enough independents and moderate Republicans to win. It is a big wager on the continuation of the politics that helped Democrats exceed expectations in last year’s midterm elections.
Democracy is on the line
When I got my first full-time job in journalism at The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in 2002, Wisconsin was an evenly divided state but one where control regularly switched back and forth between the two parties.
That ended after the 2010 Republican wave, when the party took both chambers of the Legislature and Scott Walker was elected governor. The G.O.P. weakened public-sector labor unions and drew itself the most aggressive gerrymander in the country — near supermajority control of both chambers in a 50-50 state. In 2020, Joe Biden won Wisconsin but carried only 37 out of 99 State Assembly districts.
Republicans also changed state law to make voting more onerous, enacting a strict voter ID law, while the state’s Supreme Court banned drop boxes for absentee ballots last year. Wisconsin now ranks 47th out of 50 states on how easy it is to vote, according to the 2022 Cost of Voting Index.
Protasiewicz calls the Republican-drawn maps ‘rigged,’ has suggested the labor law is unconstitutional and says she agrees with the liberal dissent in last year’s Supreme Court drop box ruling. Kelly says redistricting is a political problem to be solved by legislators — the very people who created it.
This race will have real impact on national issues, too.
Wisconsin’s Supreme Court was the only one in the country that agreed to hear Donald Trump’s challenge to the 2020 election, eventually rejecting — by a single vote — his attempt to throw out 200,000 ballots in the state’s two big Democratic counties. Kelly, when I interviewed him in February, declined to say whether he agreed with the decision to uphold the 2020 results.
The 2024 presidential election in the state may be close enough to be contested in the courts again. New congressional maps could also put up to three Republican-held House seats in play.
Tomorrow’s other big election: Chicago’s mayoral runoff race has focused on crime. The election pits a former schools executive, Paul Vallas, who is campaigning largely on a pro-police platform, against Brandon Johnson, a county commissioner who favors solutions that go beyond policing. Here’s what matters in four of the city’s wards.” [New York Times]
Tornadoes
“Devastating storms and tornadoes ravaged multiple states across the South and Midwest over the weekend, leaving at least 32 dead. The weather in the region is expected to be relatively calm today, forecasts show, but more storms are on the way this week. Another widespread severe weather outbreak is expected Tuesday afternoon in the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including across areas still reeling from recent severe storms, according to the National Weather Service. Central Arkansas, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois will see a new round of storms Tuesday that threaten to bring more tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. A "moderate" risk of severe storms has also been issued across parts of eastern Iowa, northeastern Missouri, and western Illinois.” [CNN]
Oil prices
“Oil prices surged today after OPEC+ producers said they would cut production in a surprise move. Member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monitor the market and decide collectively to raise or lower oil production in order to maintain stable prices and supply. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced that it would start ‘a voluntary reduction’ of its production of crude oil, alongside other members. The countries slashing production include OPEC+ members Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman. The collective output cut by the countries totals 1.66 million barrels per day, analysts say, which could mean inflation remains higher for longer.” [CNN]
Republicans are still pushing for stricter election laws.
“What to know: State lawmakers had introduced 150 restrictive election bills in North Carolina, Texas, Georgia and other states by late February, according to one count.
Why? Republicans say it’s to restore public faith in the integrity of elections, even though there’s no evidence that election fraud is a widespread problem.” [Washington Post]
The number of U.S. babies born with syphilis is surging.
“What is syphilis? A bacterial infection that mainly spreads through sexual contact and can be passed from mother to child. It’s easily controlled with antibiotics.
The numbers: There were nearly 2,700 infected infants in 2021, CDC data shows. The rate is five times higher for babies born to Black mothers than to White mothers.
What’s behind this? It’s being driven by the drug and homelessness crisis, experts said, as well as inequities in the health-care system.” [Washington Post]
School safety
“More funerals connected to last week's shooting at a Christian school in Nashville are set to occur this week as officials continue to debate how best to protect students. In recent years, many schools have seen an increase in active shooter drills, lockdowns, and fortified buildings and doors. Mass shootings have also helped fuel a multibillion-dollar school security industry -- ranging from high-tech surveillance systems to weapon scanners and hand-held panic devices that immediately alert law enforcement and initiate lockdowns. Meanwhile, many lawmakers in Washington refuse to call for any federal restrictions on firearms -- and are proposing other ideas. On Sunday, Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw called for ‘a minimum of two armed guards at every school in America from here on out,’ as many Democrats continue to urge members on Capitol Hill to push forward action on gun control.” [CNN]
Russia blast
“A female suspect has been detained in connection with an explosion Sunday at a St. Petersburg cafe that killed a prominent Russian military blogger and wounded at least 32 others. The blast killed blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, according to Russian state media, in what appeared to be a brazen attack on a high-profile pro-Kremlin figure. Tatarsky died when the explosion tore through the cafe that was hosting an event at which he was speaking. Among those wounded, at least 10 are in serious condition, according to state media reports. Meanwhile, officials in Ukraine are reporting ceaseless Russian attacks on the embattled eastern town of Avdiivka, with up to 14 rockets hitting the town daily.” [CNN]
“Protest pause | Opposition leader Raila Odinga announced a suspension of twice weekly protests that have rocked Kenya and pledged to enter into talks with the government over his claim that he won last year’s presidential election. He made the concession after President William Ruto called for an end to the demonstrations that have left three people dead and hundreds injured.” [Bloomberg]
A protester throws a stone towards police during clashes in Nairobi on March 27. Photographer: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images
How Twitter is changing
“A series of changes at Twitter has laid bare what the service has become under Elon Musk, Axios chief tech correspondent Ina Fried writes.
Why it matters: From its shift to pay-for-play to impulsive policy changes made by Musk, the site more resembles an intrigue-filled palace than the town square that Musk says he seeks to protect.
1. Pay-for-play "verification":
Saturday marked the official deadline for previously verified Twitter users to pay for Twitter Blue to keep their blue check marks.
Although most previously verified accounts have yet to lose the mark, many celebrities (including LeBron James) and news organizations are vowing not to pay.
The New York Times lost its verification mark after saying it wouldn't pay. ‘Oh ok, we’ll take it off then,’ Musk tweeted.
The White House also won't pay, as Axios' Sara Fischer first reported.
2. Recommendation engine:
Twitter on Friday released some of the code that it uses to choose and rank content in the ‘For You’ section, revealing how the platform boosts content with images and downranks certain content with external links.
Musk's account has its own special category in the code, which could explain why many users have reported seeing his messages so prominently.
3. Topics Musk doesn't want talked about:
If you use the words ‘trans’ or ‘transgender’ in a tweet, for example, the message won't preview if you share it via direct message on Twitter. This was documented by others. Ina experienced it while trying to share this post she wrote for Transgender Day of Visibility.” [Axios]
LSU women win Tigers' first Madness title
Photo: Tony Gutierrez/AP
Above: LSU's Angel Reese, women's Final Four Most Outstanding Player, cuts down the net after dominating Iowa, 102-85.
“The Tigers are taking their first March Madness championship trophy — men's or women's — back to the bayou.
New record: Reese has the most double-doubles in a single season in NCAA Division I history — 34.
Head Coach Kim Mulkey — who assembled nine transfers and freshmen to ‘Piece It 2gether’ in her second season in Baton Rouge — won her fourth championship in four title-game appearances, after three at Baylor. —LSU
Iowa's Caitlin Clark enters the arena on a red carpet. Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Iowa's Caitlin Clark scored 30 points in Dallas yesterday, finishing with a tournament-record 191. That eclipses 177 points by Sheryl Swoopes for Texas Tech in 1993, and 184 by Glen Rice for Michigan in the 1989 men's tournament.
The 21-year-old junior from West Des Moines has another season with the Hawkeyes — and could have two more.” [Axios]
Bracket Watched
Kevin Jairaj/ USA Today
"The women's game wins
It is folly and largely unproductive to pit men’s and women’s college basketball against each other. But after LSU’s decisive win over Iowa in yesterday’s national championship game, it just feels like women’s college basketball won March this year. Consider:
The women’s tourney had its share of mayhem, and ended up with a Final Four that had two No. 1 seeds — including the undefeated defending national champs — plus a No. 3 seed and a No. 2 seed. Yet these four still contained that goliath (South Carolina), a four-time national title-winning coach (LSU’s Kim Mulkey) and the game’s most electrifying player (Caitlin Clark).
We saw the ripple effects. Ratings were massive for the Final Four. Tickets to get in the door for the final were upwards of $400 apiece.
All three games were fantastic, too. Clark and Iowa pulled an unthinkable upset against the overwhelming title favorite. LSU came back from a double-digit deficit to beat No. 1 seed Virginia Tech. Big names, massive storylines and great basketball.
Yesterday’s title game wasn’t as close, but it was supremely entertaining nonetheless. We got to see Clark explode for 30 points and nearly lead the Hawkeyes back from a 17-point halftime hole. LSU’s Angel Reese ruffled some feathers by mimicking Clark’s you-can’t-see-me celebration to Clark, once the game was in hand. Drama! The proverbial water cooler will be filled with hot takes about this today.
The men’s bracket this year — despite its riveting upsets — lacks a lot of this juice. Tonight’s men’s final will probably draw a bigger audience, but people will be talking about this women’s tourney for the next few weeks … or until Reese and Clark meet again next March. That’s a win.” [The Athletic]