The Full Belmonte, 4/29/2024
Dems escalate Columbia fight
Reps. Jared Moskowitz, Kathy Manning, Josh Gottheimer and Dan Goldman speak in front of the Kraft Center for Jewish Student Life at Columbia University last week. Photo: Andrew Solender/Axios
“Columbia University's board is facing new pressure from a group of House Democrats to ‘act decisively’ and end an ongoing pro-Palestinian encampment on its campus or resign, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.
Why it matters: Calls for Columbia officials to resign have largely been confined to the GOP. So this is a major escalation in Democrats' rhetoric on the high-profile demonstration.
In a letter to the university's board of trustees, 21 House Democrats write of their ‘disappointment that, despite promises to do so, Columbia University has not yet disbanded the unauthorized and impermissible encampment of anti-Israel, anti-Jewish activists on campus.’
The letter is mostly signed by a group of moderate and swing-district members, including 10 Jewish lawmakers, led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.).
Among the signers is Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), the former House majority leader.
The other side: Several high-profile progressives have gone to college campuses in and around their districts to show their support for the demonstrators.
Reps. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), both members of the progressive "Squad," visited Columbia on Friday.
The House is scheduled to vote this week on at least one antisemitism measure that is dividing House Democrats.
Pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protesters met on UCLA's campus yesterday. Photo: Robert Gauthier/L.A. Times via Getty Images
Zoom in: Dueling pro-Israel and pro-Palestine groups clashed on UCLA's campus yesterday after crossing a barrier meant to separate them, CNN reported under the headline: ‘Protests put major universities on edge.’
The L.A. Times wrote it was ‘large and noisy but mostly peaceful.’
The number of campus arrests rose to at least 800 over the weekend as police broke up encampments at schools across the country, according to a New York Times tally.” [Axios]
Tensions over war felt on campuses and beyond
“Activists rallied outside a hotel hosting the annual White House correspondents' dinner Saturday night, painting an uncomfortable scene as fanciful attendees entered the event. Demonstrators targeted President Joe Biden, who spoke at the dinner, for his support of Israel's military campaign. Meanwhile, ‘physical altercations’ ensued on Sunday at UCLA after demonstrators breached a security barrier separating counterprotesters. The clash came one day after student arrests occurred on at least four universities. Read more at USA Today
Demonstrators try to block arriving guests outside of the Washington Hilton, the site of the Annual White House Correspondents Dinner, on April 27, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Kent Nishimura, Getty Images
(Getty Images)
Presidential race
“Former President Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden as their campaigns — and Trump's criminal trial — move forward, according to a new CNN poll. Trump's support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% compared to Biden at 43%. The poll, which was conducted among 1,200 random adults, also revealed most respondents felt Trump's term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Biden's has so far been a failure. In an effort to reach potential voters, Biden poked fun at his own age Saturday at the annual White House Correspondents' Dinner and took jabs at his predecessor. Biden last week also offered his most robust commitment to the general election debates, saying in an interview that he would be "happy to" debate Trump.” [CNN]
Tornadoes and storms blast Midwest
“A swath of the Midwest braced for more deadly storms after brutal weather blasted across the Plains, killing at least four people in Oklahoma, destroying homes and knocking out power to tens of thousands. The storm system threatened parts of Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa through Sunday night and thunderstorms are expected across the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast into Monday, posing another risk of severe weather hazards such as hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding.” Read more at USA Today
Tornado damage is seen in Sulphur, Oklahoma, on April 28, 2024.
BRYAN TERRY, THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
Trump-DeSantis peace deal
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and then-President Trump during a COVID roundtable in 2020. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
“Former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis met yesterday in Miami to make up after their brutal primary fight, according to a source familiar with the meeting.
Why it matters: DeSantis is a prodigious fundraiser — and Trump badly needs the cash in the general election against President Biden, Axios' Alex Thompson and Justin Green write.
Trump and DeSantis hadn't spoken since the Republican primary ended, The Washington Post reports.” [Axios]
“The International Criminal Court in the Hague is preparing to issue arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on charges related to the war against Hamas in Gaza, according to reports from Israeli and international media. Israeli and foreign officials told The New York Times the ICC is also considering arrest warrants for Hamas leaders.” [NPR]
Yasser Qudihe/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty
Can a floating aid island save Gaza?
“American troops have begun constructing a floating pier three miles from Gaza's shore that will receive shipments of food and other humanitarian aid transported from Cyprus by commercial ships.
How it will work: Smaller ships will pick up the aid from the 72-feet wide and 270-feet long pier and ferry the aid to a pier on Gaza’s shore for delivery inland, where millions of people face food insecurity.
•U.S. troops won't take the aid to shore or step foot in Gaza. Instead, American military personnel are training Israeli counterparts to anchor the pier on Gaza’s shore.
•Why aren't deliveries by truck possible? Land routes provide aid more efficiently but have been restricted by Israel over security concerns.
•The whole floating operation hangs in a fragile balance as Israel promised not to invade Rafah, a city where millions of Palestinians are seeking shelter, without consulting the U.S.” [USA Today]
World Central Kitchen will resume delivering food in Gaza today.
“What to know: The food aid group founded by celebrity chef José Andrés had halted its work following the killing of seven of its workers in an Israeli strike this month.
This week: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the Middle East for renewed hostage-release negotiations. International pressure is growing to secure an end to the fighting.” [Washington Post]
New Navalny clues
Vladimir Putin holds a video meeting with economic advisers from his residence outside Moscow on April 17. Photo: Gavril Grigorov/AFP via Getty Images
“U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded Russian President Vladimir Putin likely didn't directly order Alexei Navalny's February death in a remote Russian penal colony.
The assessment is ‘broadly accepted within the intelligence community and shared by several agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency,’ The Wall Street Journal reported.
Between the lines: Putin was still ultimately responsible for Navalny's death, the agencies found. But there was ‘no smoking gun’ that he directed in.” [Axios]
“Australia rallies: Marches have taken place across the country, calling for gender-based violence to be declared a national emergency.” [BBC]
“An assassin killed one of Iraq’s most famous TikTok personalities, Ghufran Mahdi Sawadi. Conservatives had criticized her videos.” [New York Times]
“Politics is mostly a long-distance discipline punctuated by intense bursts of drama. The UK is facing just such a moment this week, one that might shape the country’s fortunes for years to come.
Local ballots are not normally the trigger for national disruption, but voting across England on Thursday will be a key test of support for the ruling Conservatives ahead of a general election expected in the fall.
If the party flounders — the Tories trail the main opposition Labour Party by around 20 percentage points in national polls — then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will come under renewed pressure from his own side.
As Stuart Biggs reports, critics on the Tory right will use a poor showing to persuade fellow Conservatives that only a change of leader can prevent a wipe out nationally.
The position of Scotland’s First Minister, Humza Yousaf, is even more precarious after he ended a coalition between his Scottish National Party and the Greens. That triggered an opposition confidence motion, also due this week, which he doesn’t have the votes to survive. Early Scottish elections loom.
Sunak and Yousaf are both relative newcomers, having inherited restless parties undergoing upheaval. It doesn’t help that neither enjoys a popular mandate.
Even putting aside political missteps, of which there have been many, each represents a party that feels tired and out of ideas: The Tories have been in power for 14 years, the SNP for nearly 17.
In each case, the chief beneficiary of their woes is Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Few would bet on anything but a Labour victory whenever Sunak — or his unfortunate successor — calls the election.
Politics is about timing. Right now, there’s a sense that time is up for the governments in both London and Edinburgh.”— Alan Crawford [Bloomberg]
Humza Yousaf. Photographer: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
“Fighting has intensified on the front line in eastern Ukraine, with Russia exploiting its advantage over Kyiv’s forces along several axes, Ukrainian army commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said yesterday. Russian troops have made “tactical successes” in some areas, while Ukraine is still able to achieve local gains in others, he said, as the government awaits the arrival of long-delayed US military aid.” [Bloomberg]
“US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is stepping up efforts to secure a truce in Gaza during meetings in the Middle East starting today, in what could be a final chance to persuade Israel to call off an attack on Rafah. Blinken is in Saudi Arabia to meet with regional counterparts and then visits Jordan and Israel through Wednesday, according to the State Department.” [Bloomberg]
Destroyed buildings in southern Gaza last week. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg
“After keeping Spain on tenterhooks for almost a week, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced today that he’ll continue in the job. The 52-year-old Socialist said last week he would withdraw from the public eye to consider his future after a judge opened a case alleging influence-peddling against his wife, a move Sanchez blamed on a right-wing plot.” [Bloomberg]
“The phrase Viksit Bharat — or Developed India — has come to define Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic vision for a likely third term after national elections that end June 1. Analysts at Oxford Economics estimate that to attain high-income status by the centenary of its independence from Britain would require boosting gross domestic product more than sixfold, to about $23 trillion, requiring economic growth of at least 8% a year for the next quarter century.” [Bloomberg]
“Mexican opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez ramped up attacks against her ruling party rival, Claudia Sheinbaum, in the second debate, accusing her of lying and her family members of being involved in corruption. Just over a month before the vote, Sheinbaum has a 29-point lead over Galvez, according to the most recent Bloomberg Poll Tracker.” [Bloomberg]
“China’s intelligence chief promised a ‘powerful offensive’ to fight espionage amid a flurry of spying accusations against the Asian nation ahead of President Xi Jinping’s first visit to Europe in about five years next week.” [Bloomberg]
“Japan’s ruling party lost a special election Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had described in part as a judgment on himself, months ahead of a party leadership vote.” [Bloomberg]
“An increasing number of German companies are finding themselves in the crosshairs of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s nationalist drive to put assets in Hungarian hands, particularly people close to his leadership.” [Bloomberg]
April 29, 2024
Good morning. We’re covering the reasons that Trump has avoided legal penalties for 2020 —
Donald Trump on Jan. 6, 2021. Pete Marovich for The New York Times
Delay, delay, delay
“It now seems likely that Donald Trump will be able to run for president this year without having faced any legal penalties for his effort to overturn the last presidential election. To many of his supporters, of course, this outcome is just. But it is also striking.
Most Americans believe that Trump committed serious crimes, polls show. He chose not to order the authorities to stop a violent attack on the Capitol, even when his vice president was in danger. And he directed state election officials to “find” him votes. Even so, Congress did not sanction him, and neither of the criminal trials related to his actions may even start before the 2024 election.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how this happened, by focusing on the three crucial groups of people: Republican senators, Democratic (or Democrat-appointed) prosecutors and Republican appointees on the Supreme Court.
1. Republican senators
The simplest path for addressing Trump’s attempts to overthrow an election was always in Congress. Congress has the power to impeach officials and bar them from holding office again, and it has used this power before. Most criminal convictions, by contrast, do not prevent somebody from holding office.
In early 2021, Congress seemed to be on the verge of barring Trump. The House impeached him, with 10 Republicans joining every Democrat in voting to do so. In the Senate, convicting him would have required at least 17 Republicans.
That seemed plausible. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, signaled that he supported impeachment. As people close to him told The Times, McConnell believed that the process would make it easier to purge Mr. Trump from the party. Other Republican senators sent similar signals.
Ultimately, though, they backed down. Trump remained popular with Republican voters, and many senators feared confronting him. McConnell played the central role. He delayed the trial until after Trump left office — and some senators then justified their acquittal votes by saying Trump was no longer president.
Seven Republicans, a mix of moderates and conservatives, did vote to convict: Richard Burr of North Carolina, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. Others who were witheringly critical of Trump in private — like Roy Blunt of Missouri and Rob Portman of Ohio — voted to acquit, making it possible for Trump to become the Republican nominee this year.
2. Democratic prosecutors
After the Senate acquitted Trump, the next focus became the criminal investigations of his postelection actions. But these investigations moved slowly.
At the Justice Department, Attorney General Merrick Garland and his deputy, Lisa Monaco, worried that an indictment of Trump would appear partisan and told aides to proceed with extreme caution. Their caution was reminiscent of Robert Mueller’s decision as special counsel in 2019 not to announce a conclusion about whether Trump had broken the law during his 2016 campaign — even after Mueller presented such evidence. In both cases, top prosecutors were hoping to remain above the political fray.
To some Justice Department officials working for Garland and Monaco, this was an impossible goal in today’s political atmosphere. As The Washington Post put it: ‘Some prosecutors below them chafed, feeling top officials were shying away from looking at evidence of potential crimes by Trump and those close to him.’ The F.B.I. did not open a probe into election interference for more than a year, and the Justice Department did not charge Trump until August 2023.
The investigation, as The Times described, was methodical, slow and at times dysfunctional.
The one state prosecution for election interference, in Georgia, has also been chaotic. Last year, Fani Willis, the district attorney in Fulton County, filed a sprawling indictment involving 18 defendants, which made a speedy trial impossible. Willis also assigned the case to a lawyer she was secretly dating, causing further delays.
3. Republican justices
Even with the Justice Department’s go-slow approach, Trump’s federal trial for election interference had a chance to finish before Election Day, but the Supreme Court intervened. It did so in a way that caused several delays.
First, the justices declined to hear Trump’s appeal — in which he claimed that presidents are immune from prosecution — on the expedited schedule that Jack Smith, the Justice Department’s special counsel, requested. Then the justices did agree to hear the case. And during oral arguments last week, the Republican-appointed majority suggested it would issue a broad ruling setting a new precedent, which could take months.
On their own, each of these decisions can be defended. The overall approach, however, is very different from the one the court took in 2000 during Bush v. Gore. Then, the justices acted urgently, recognizing the political calendar, and said that their decision was a narrow one, applying only to a single election. This time, as Justice Neil Gorsuch put it, they seek a ruling ‘for the ages.’
Critics have pointed out that in both 2000 and 2024, Republican-appointed justices chose an approach that benefited the Republican presidential nominee. A fast, narrow ruling in 2000 stopped the vote count in Florida and let George W. Bush take office. A slow, broad ruling in 2024 may push the start of Trump’s federal trial past Election Day.
All these decisions — by senators, prosecutors and justices — have played into Trump’s central legal strategy: delay. It’s a strategy he used to fight investigations during his business career, and it seems to have worked again in this campaign.
And in New York: The one trial that has moved ahead — involving Trump’s payment of hush money in 2016 — resumes on Tuesday.” [New York Times]
Young America's wealth boom
Data: Center for American Progress analysis of Fed data. Chart: Axios Visuals
“Average household wealth for those under 40 in the U.S. is up 49% from its pre-pandemic level, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new analysis by the left-leaning Center for American Progress.
Why it matters: Young households haven't seen wealth growth like this since the Fed started tracking the data in 1989.
Stunning stat: Millennials — currently ages 27-43 — saw their wealth double over this period, according to the analysis.
Zoom in: Americans under 40 have seen big asset gains while reducing some liabilities:
Average housing wealth rose $22,000 — as homeownership rose and home prices soared.
Liquid assets climbed courtesy of leftover savings from pandemic relief and higher wages.
Financial assets, mostly stocks and mutual funds, increased by an average of $31,000.
Nonhousing debt fell by $5,000. With more money in their pockets, people could pay off credit cards (the student loan moratorium helped), or not take that debt on at all.” [Axios]
A vegan blue cheese caused major drama in the cheese world.
(Climax Foods)
“What is it? The Climax Blue, made from a plant-based blend of seeds, beans and fats. It was named as a finalist in a prestigious food award in January — and had been set to win it today.
It caused a stink: Traditional cheesemakers were upset about the nomination. And, last week, the Good Food Foundation abruptly removed the cheese from its finalist list.”
Read this story at Washington Post
SPORTS
“N.B.A.: The Minnesota Timberwolves finished a sweep of the Phoenix Suns with a 122-116 win.
M.L.B.: Nike will alter its controversial new uniforms for next season after criticism from players, according to a memo.
W.N.B.A.: Candace Parker, a women’s basketball legend, announced her retirement after 16 years in the league, a run that includes three championships and two MVPs.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Robbi Mecus was a forest ranger who helped foster an L.G.B.T.Q. climbing community. She died after falling about 1,000 feet from a peak in Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska. She was 52.” [New York Times]