The Full Belmonte, 4/18/2022
“Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenksyy warned Sunday that the world should be concerned against possible use of nuclear and chemical weapons by Russian President Vladimir Putin. ‘All over the world, countries have to be worried,’ Zelenksyy told CNN, adding that he hopes President Joe Biden will continue to aid his nation. The future of Russia's invasion of Ukraine depends on how well Ukraine resists the Kremlin's offensive in the eastern part of the country, he said. After six weeks of holding out against relentless battle, officials in the eastern city of Mariupol refused to surrender over the weekend, rejecting a Russian deadline to yield.” Read more at USA Today
People take belongings out of a destroyed residential building in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, yesterday. Photo: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
“The last remaining Ukrainian troops bunkered down in Mariupol ignored Russia's ultimatum to surrender by Sunday morning, Axios national security reporter Zachary Basu writes.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that the ‘elimination’ of the troops holed up in a massive Mariupol steel plant ‘could conclusively put an end to any kind of talks’ with Russia.
The humanitarian situation in the rest of Mariupol is dire, with at least 21,000 civilians killed and as many as 100,000 unable to evacuate, according to Ukrainian officials.
‘The city doesn't exist anymore,’ Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on CBS News' ‘Face the Nation.’
Russian missiles struck Lviv in western Ukraine early this morning, killing at least six people and injuring 11 in a city that had largely been safe from Russian attacks over the past several weeks.
Lviv, which lies just 43 miles from the Polish border, has been a key hub for foreign diplomats, Ukrainian refugees, and humanitarian and military supplies flowing in from the neighboring European Union.” Read more at Axios
“Tax procrastinators, the jig is up: Monday, April 18, is the federal tax deadline. Americans had an extra weekend to prepare their returns this year, thanks to the local observance of Emancipation Day in Washington, D.C., on the usual April 15 deadline. (Maine and Massachusetts residents have until April 19 due to the Patriots' Day holiday in those states.) If you still haven't filed, don't panic: Here are some reminders and tips, plus instructions on how to file for an extension. If you have already filed, be advised that getting your refund could take longer than usual as the IRS battles pandemic-related complications from last year.” Read more at USA Today
“After three mass shootings rocked the nation over the weekend, authorities in South Carolina and Pittsburgh were working to unravel the details behind the tragic events. Two minors were killed and at least eight other people were injured when gunfire tore through a party at a short-term rental property in Pittsburgh early Sunday morning, police said. No arrests were immediately reported. At least nine people were injured in a shooting at a nightclub in Hampton County, South Carolina, and 14 people were hurt when gunfire erupted at a crowded Columbia, South Carolina, mall , sending shoppers scrambling for safety. Nine people were shot and five people were injured while trying to flee the scene at Columbiana Centre mall, police said. A 22-year-old man was arrested and later released on house arrest in connection with the shooting. Two other men initially detained have been released from police custody.” Read more at USA Today
“Hate crimes in New York City have increased 76% so far this year compared to the same period last year, according to data from the New York Police Department Hate Crimes Task Force. With a total of 194 hate crimes reported since the beginning of this year, New York City is experiencing a wave in violent crime incidents and homelessness, Mayor Eric Adams said, particularly within the subway system. Crime incidents targeted at Jewish people increased from 28 crimes last year to 86 so far in 2022, according to the data. Crimes against Black people also doubled, with the number of targeted incidents this year standing at 26 compared to 13 in the same time period last year. Hate crimes against Asians , however, were down -- with 47 last year and 32 in the same period this year, the data show.” Read more at CNN
“The far-right website InfoWars on Sunday filed for voluntary chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US bankruptcy court for the southern district of Texas, in the face of multiple defamation lawsuits.
Chapter 11 bankruptcy procedures put a hold on all civil litigation matters and allow companies to prepare turnaround plans while remaining operational.
Alex Jones, founder of InfoWars, was found liable for damages in three lawsuits last year filed after he falsely claimed the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax.
Jones claimed the shooting, in which 20 children and six school employees were shot dead at the school in Newtown, Connecticut, was fabricated by gun-control advocates and mainstream media.” Read more at The Guardian
“The ship Ever Forward loaded up with cargo in Baltimore and was headed south in the Chesapeake Bay when it ran aground on March 13. It had been stuck ever since — until it was finally freed Sunday morning.” Read more at NPR
“Sri Lankan officials sit down with International Monetary Fund negotiators today for a week of talks designed to stabilize the country’s ailing economy following weeks of protests that have severely tested the rule of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. If these negotiations end in agreement, it will be the 17th IMF program Sri Lanka has entered into since its independence in 1948.
Though the IMF meeting was precipitated when Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt payments last week, the roots of its economic troubles reach much further back. A foreign debt load that has more than doubled in the last decade, from roughly $25 billion in 2011 to more than $50 billion today, has helped cripple the economy as steep interest payments took precedence over providing basic goods and services.
Poorly timed and questionable policies, such as tax cuts in 2019 and a botched plan to make the country’s agricultural industry fully organic, have not helped the country balance its books, and the twin shocks of the coronavirus pandemic and war in Ukraine (higher fuel prices, fewer Russian tourists) have all conspired to send the economic trajectory downward.
Civil unrest has gripped the country since March, with thousands of protesters—fed up with food, medicine, and fuel shortages as well as steep inflation—taking to the streets demanding the resignation of the Rajapaksa government.
The protests have stood out for their broad appeal, briefly uniting a country that only ended a civil war in 2009 and where religious tensions have risen since an Islamic State attack in 2019.
‘It’s pretty diverse. Different people, different age groups, different ethnic groups, different linguistic groups,’ Amita Arudpragasam, an independent policy analyst based in Sri Lanka’s capital, Colombo, told Foreign Policy. ‘They’ve been out there now for over eight days. It’s not something that is a one-time thing.’ (Arudpragasam correctly predicted a coming Sri Lankan economic crisis in a 2018 FP piece).
Shanta Devarajan, a former World Bank chief economist and currently a professor at Georgetown University, will represent Sri Lanka during the week’s negotiations and has repeatedly called for cash transfers to the poor to replace any fuel and food subsidies that the IMF wants to cut. ‘This is a very dangerous situation. And if you want to introduce austerity in the middle of that situation, you have to manage it very carefully,’ Devarajan told CNBC.
‘You have to do two things: One, make sure that the poor are protected—the bottom 40 percent of the population—[through a] targeted cash transfer. Two, have a public information campaign so that people understand that these measures are needed to avoid an even bigger crisis.’
Even if they haven’t gone as far as protesters want, the demonstrations have already had an impact. At the beginning of the month, the cabinet resigned en masse, while the opposition alliance has given the president and prime minister until Wednesday to resign or face a no-confidence vote in parliament.
While the country is often held up as an example of China’s debt diplomacy, the blame can’t be laid squarely at Beijing’s door. Japan holds the same level of Sri Lankan debt as China, about 10 percent, while nearly half its foreign debtors are private lenders.
And while the Rajapaksa brothers’ rule has been criticized for tilting too closely to China, their government’s search for immediate support has also included outreach to India. Both countries are currently being courted for funding support, with Colombo hoping for a $1.5 billion credit line from New Delhi (on top of $1 billion already committed by India this year) and negotiating with Beijing for up to $2.5 billion in credit lines and loans.
As C. Raja Mohan writes, both India and the United States will be eager for Sri Lanka to take the IMF’s funding so that China can’t swoop in in its place. The alignment is part of a ‘pendulum swing’ in the wider region, Mohan writes, with Washington’s focus on Nepal, the Maldives, and Bangladesh dovetailing with ‘New Delhi’s eagerness to prevent the region from slipping into China’s orbit.’
In an in-depth review of Sri Lanka’s IMF relationship to date, Sri Lanka-based analyst Daniel Alphonsus argues for structural reforms to the country’s political foundations—moving taxation powers away from the presidency and into parliament, for example. Ultimately, the country must begin to learn from its mistakes at the ballot box as much as the ones on its balance sheet, Alphonsus writes: ‘If we continue to elect fools, knaves and charlatans then no amount of cunning policy or courageous protest will deliver us from this quagmire.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Images published yesterday by North Korean state media showed the country's leader, Kim Jong Un, smiling and clapping as he observed his country fire projectiles into waters off the east of the Korean Peninsula. The weapons test was the country's 12th such test this year -- and a move South Korea and Japan consider extremely threatening. Immediately after the launch, South Korea's military, intelligence agencies and National Security Office held an emergency meeting to assess the situation and discuss countermeasures, according to a Joint Chiefs of Staff statement. North Korea has increased its missile tests this year, including the launch of its first intercontinental ballistic missile in more than four years on March 24, in defiance of international law.” Read more at CNN
Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the U.N. Security Council this month.Timothy A. Clary/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
The ‘messy middle’
“If you live in most any Western country, your government’s support for Ukraine, including sending weapons and imposing sanctions on Russia, can give the impression of a united global response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
But that isn’t the case. Most of the world’s 195 countries have not shipped aid to Ukraine or joined in sanctions. A handful have actively supported Russia. Far more occupy the ‘messy middle,’ as Carisa Nietsche of the Center for a New American Security calls it, taking neither Ukraine’s nor Russia’s side.
‘We live in a bubble, here in the U.S. and Europe, where we think the very stark moral and geopolitical stakes, and framework of what we’re seeing unfolding, is a universal cause,’ Barry Pavel, a senior vice president at the Atlantic Council, told me. ‘Actually, most of the governments of the world are not with us.’
Today’s newsletter offers a guide to some of those countries and why they have committed to their stances.
National interests
India and Israel are prominent democracies that ally with the U.S. on many issues, particularly security. But they rely on Russia for security as well and have avoided arming Ukraine or imposing sanctions on Moscow. ‘In both cases, the key factor isn’t ideology but national interests,’ says my colleague Max Fisher, who has written about Russia’s invasion.
India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, seeking to protect itself from Pakistan and China. India joined 34 other countries in abstaining from a United Nations vote that condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as you can see on the map below. And India appears to be rebuffing Western pleas to take a harder line.
The United Nations vote took place on March 2. Some countries did not formally submit votes. | Source: United Nations
Israel coordinates with Russia on Iran, its chief adversary, and in neighboring Syria (with which Russia has a strong relationship). Russian-speaking émigrés from the former Soviet Union also make up a sizable chunk of the Israeli electorate. Israel’s prime minister has avoided directly criticizing Putin, and though its government has mediated between Ukraine and Russia, little has come out of the effort.
Several Latin American, Southeast Asian and African countries have made similar choices. Bolivia, Vietnam and almost half of Africa’s 54 countries declined to support the U.N. resolution condemning Russia. Some rely on Russian military assistance, said Bruce Jones, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Others don’t want to risk jeopardizing trade relations with China, which has parroted Russian propaganda about the war.
Those countries ‘might be more accurately described as disinterested,’ Max says, unwilling to risk their security or economies ‘for the sake of a struggle that they see as mostly irrelevant.’
West skeptics
Some countries, citing the West’s history of imperialism and past failures to respect human rights, have justified opposing its response to Ukraine. South Africa’s president blamed NATO for Russia’s invasion, and its U.N. ambassador criticized the U.S. invasion of Iraq during a debate last month about Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis.
Other countries, including some that voted to condemn Russia’s invasion, accuse the West of acting counterproductively. Brazil’s U.N. ambassador has suggested that arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia risk escalating the war. ‘There’s nothing intellectually incoherent between viewing Russia’s actions as outrageous and not necessarily fully siding with the West’s reaction to it,’ Jones told me.
Autocratic leaders — including in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Nicaragua — may also feel threatened by Ukraine’s resistance and the West’s framing of the invasion as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, experts said. ‘They’re concerned that this could inspire opposition movements in their own countries,’ Nietsche said.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in Beijing in February.Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Russia’s friends
China, with all its economic and military might, has seen the war as a chance to enhance its own geopolitical standing as a counterweight to the U.S. while still maintaining ties to Russia. The countries recently issued a joint statement proclaiming a friendship with ‘no limits.’ But China has struggled with the delicate balancing act of honoring that commitment without fully endorsing Russia’s invasion: Beijing has denounced Western sanctions but has not appeared to have given Russia weapons or economic aid.
‘China’s support for Russia, while very important, is also carefully hedged and measured,’ Max says.
Four countries — North Korea, Eritrea, Syria and Belarus — outright voted with Russia against the U.N. resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Belarus is a former Soviet state whose autocratic leader asked Putin to help suppress protests in 2020 and allowed Russia to launch part of its invasion from within Belarus.
Russia intervened in Syria’s civil war on behalf of the Moscow-aligned government there, and Syria is sending fighters who may aid Russian forces in Ukraine.
What’s next?
It’s not unusual for countries to avoid picking sides on big global issues. Several stayed neutral during World War II; dozens sought to remain free of both U.S. and Soviet influence during the Cold War.
But if the war in Ukraine drags on, Jones said, neutral countries could come under stronger international pressure to condemn Moscow. And for countries with close ties to Russia, even neutrality can be an act of courage.” Read more at New York Times
“Marine Le Pen, the far-right contender to become France’s president, has proposed a ban on Muslim women wearing head scarves in public.” Read more at New York Times
“Monday's 126th Boston Marathon comes only about six months after the 2021 race, which was postponed until October because of the coronavirus pandemic. It's the first time since 2019 that the 26.2-mile race is being held on the state's Patriots' Day holiday. (The race was canceled in 2020.) It's also the 50th anniversary of the first official women’s field in the race. Spectators can expect heavy security at the event, which comes nine years after two bombs exploded at the finish line, killing three and injuring more than 260, Police Superintendent-in-Chief Gregory Long said last week.” Read more at USA Today
“The NBA playoffs continue Monday with three games where injuries will play a notable role. In the first game of the night, the Philadelphia 76ers will host the Toronto Raptors (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with the latter possibly missing three key players due to injury. Raptors rookie Scottie Barnes, forward Thaddeus Young and guard Gary Trent Jr. have all been listed as doubtful for Monday's game. And in the second game of the night, the Dallas Mavericks face the Utah Jazz at home (8:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV), and will likely be without star Luka Doncic, according to ESPN. The Golden State Warriors will host the Denver Nuggets in the final game Monday (10 p.m. ET, TNT). Warriors star Stephen Curry, who returned from a month-long injury absence Saturday, scored 16 points in 22 minutes in Game 1.” Read more at USA Today
First round: Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) drives to the basket past Raptors defender Pascal Siakam (43) during the second half of Game 1.Bill Streicher, USA TODAY Sports
Billie Eilish performs at the Coachella Music & Arts Festival at the Empire Polo Club on Saturday, April 16, 2022, in Indio, California.Amy Harris/Invision/AP
“After a near-three-year-hiatus, thousands of people have gathered in Indio, California, for the first weekend of the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival. The spectacle kicked off Friday, with Harry Styles thriving in an 80-minute set which included new tunes from his upcoming album. Saturday provided a variety of shows including Disclosure's high-energy set featuring Khalid and Billie Eilish, who was joined onstage by her brother FINNEAS, as well as a Passover Seder for festivalgoers. The highly-anticipated festival features wild food, celebrity sightings, art and more through April 24.” Read more at USA Today
“Lives Lived: Kevin Lippert began by selling reprints of classics from the trunk of his car and became what one architect called an ‘impresario for the culture of architecture.’ He died at 63.” Read more at New York Times