The Full Belmonte, 4/15/2024
Federal criminal investigation underway for Baltimore bridge collapse
“The ship crash that destroyed the Baltimore Key Bridge and left several people dead is now under federal criminal investigation, according to a US official familiar with the matter.
The FBI and the US Coast Guard are leading the criminal investigation into the disaster and whether the crew failed to report an earlier issue with the vessel that delayed its departure, the official said.”
Read More at CNN
Donald Trump’s hush money trial in New York begins this morning.
“The case: Trump is accused of falsifying business records before the 2016 election to help cover up an alleged affair with Stormy Daniels. If found guilty, he could face prison time.
What to expect: Jury selection could last weeks. The trial — which Trump must attend — is likely to run through early June. It won’t be televised.
It’s historic: This is the first criminal trial of a former president, and one of four Trump is facing. But, even if he’s convicted, he can still run for president again.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Border "nuclear option"
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“President Biden's road to a dramatic executive order to stem illegal border crossings — expected within weeks — has dragged out for months as he prepares for legal challenges, political backlash and enforcement shortages, Axios' Stef W. Kight and Hans Nichols report.
Why it matters: With Republicans making the border a top 2024 issue, Biden has been trying to find the right language to impose a crackdown without getting instantly shut down by courts — or facing open revolt by his progressive base.
Another big concern is that an executive order without the money to implement it wouldn't be effective.
If Biden pulls the trigger, he'd rely on the same section of the federal Immigration and Nationality Act, 212(f), that former President Trump used against immigration — including his so-called Muslim ban.
A Biden administration official called that the ‘nuclear option’ for the border.
Between the lines: To truly strengthen border security, Biden needs something only Congress can provide — money to hire more U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents and other reinforcements.
By the numbers: The average number of daily crossings is about half what it was during December's surge, according to recent internal government statistics obtained by Axios.
But crossings typically jump during the spring and summer, which could put more pressure on Biden to take action to lower numbers and avoid a new string of GOP attacks.
Flashback: Trump's executive actions on immigration faced constant litigation.
When he leveraged 212(f) to block illegal border crossings, a federal judge ultimately blocked the Department of Homeland Security from enforcing it.
Reality check: It's already against the law for asylum seekers and other immigrants to cross the southwest border anywhere other than the designated, legal entry points.
Biden already has used his executive power to automatically reject asylum seekers who cross the border illegally and do not first seek protections in a country they passed through.
The bottom line: Harsh executive policies do little to fix the U.S. immigration system's outdated infrastructure, cash-needy federal agencies and overwhelmed border officials.” [Axios]
Kansas’s governor vetoed a ban on gender-affirming care for minors.
“What to know: The bill, passed last month and vetoed Friday, would ban hormone therapy, puberty blockers and gender reassignment surgery for those under 18.
What’s next? The state’s Republican-led legislature will probably try to override the Democratic governor’s veto. More than a dozen states have restricted transgender care.”
Read this story at Washington Post
It’s Tax Day.
“Haven’t filed yet? You’re not alone — millions of Americans are expected to submit a last-minute return. But there’s still time, and these options let you file for free.
If you need help: Look up your local taxpayer assistance center here. And, even if you owe taxes and can’t pay, you should still file a return or you’ll end up owing more.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images
Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel, explained
“When Iran launched a large retaliatory drone and missile assault on Israel on Saturday night, it raised fears that the Middle East was on the precipice of a regional war. But by Sunday morning, the situation looked far less dire.
Iran had telegraphed elements of its attack and its willingness to end the two-week period of hostilities there. And assisted by the United States and its Arab neighbors, Israel shot down 99 percent of the drones and missiles heading in its direction. Those strikes that got through did not kill anyone, doing minor damage to a military base and injuring a child.
If this sounds like an Israeli victory, that’s because it was.
Two weeks earlier, Israel escalated its several-year-old assassination campaign against top Iranian security figures by killing a senior Iranian general at the country’s embassy in Syria — a brazen move given that states generally treat embassies as militarily out-of-bounds.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei billed Tehran’s response as ‘punishment’ for that attack, but the failure to do significant harm illustrated that Israel is fairly well shielded from Iran’s vaunted drone and missile fleet.
Iran ‘had to realize that any strike on Israel would benefit Israel’s end game far more than Iran’s. That they chose to attack anyway shows one again that strategy is always the victim of emotion,’ writes Afshon Ostovar, an expert on the Iranian military at the Naval Postgraduate School.
Israel hit Iran in an especially harsh way and more or less got away with it. But this does not mean things are stable between Israel and Iran. Far from it.
The immediate question is whether Israel’s leadership understands when to leave well enough alone. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proven himself reckless during the Gaza war and depends on some exceptionally extreme governing partners to stay in power. The United States is trying to restrain him — with President Joe Biden reportedly telling Netanyahu to ‘take the win’ — but it’s unclear if he will.
And even if Israel chooses restraint for now this episode may have permanently raised the risk of a wider war between Jerusalem and Tehran.
Hossein Beris / Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
What was Iran thinking?
When news of Iran’s attack broke Saturday night, a former US military officer who studies Iran texted me skeptically. ‘None of these drones get through,’ he correctly predicted.
Iran had indeed chosen a curious strategy. Tehran had been telegraphing a response targeting Israeli territory for weeks, giving Israel and its allies plenty of time to prepare. The drones it chose to launch were slow-moving, taking hours to reach Israeli airspace and passing over neighboring countries (notably Jordan) that shot them down. Fears that Iran would overwhelm Israel’s air defenses with fast-moving missiles proved largely unfounded.
There are two basic ways to think about Iran’s intent in light of this failure.
It’s entirely possible that Iran miscalculated. In this scenario, Iran attempted to do real damage to Israel and simply failed to appreciate its enemies’ capabilities. Leading military analysts and defense reporters see this interpretation as consistent with the structure of Iran’s strike, particularly its use of ballistic missiles and targeting of a military base in Israel’s south.
But it’s also possible Iran didn’t intend to do serious damage to Israel. In this second scenario, Tehran merely aimed for a symbolic strike so it wasn’t seen as backing down after Israel struck its embassy.
There’s precedent for this. After the United States killed Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, in 2020, Iran’s military retaliation was limited to firing missiles at a US airbase — a response successfully calibrated not to force the United States to retaliate further.
Indeed, Iran is publicly signaling a similar intent: An official government account tweeted that ‘the matter can be deemed concluded’ even before the first drone reached Israeli airspace. That’s as close to publicly saying ‘this is a fake attack’ as it gets in international relations.
If Iran wasn’t intending serious damage, then the attack wasn’t as obviously a failure — but it still looks like a kind of strategic defeat. Iran’s ineffectual response sends a signal that Israel can attack Iranian interests with relative impunity because it is outclassed by Israel and its allies.
Adam Schultz/The White House via Getty Images
How things could calm down — or get worse
With Iran’s retaliation largely a dud, Israel is in a stronger position than it was before it hit the Damascus embassy.
Israel conducted arguably its most politically risky assassination of an Iranian military commander yet — one that could have triggered an outright war. And it emerged not just unscathed, but having demonstrated that its homeland appears safe from direct Iranian assault in the immediate future.
The mass Iranian assault also seems to have galvanized Israel’s Republican supporters in Congress, where an aid package has been held up for months as part of the fight over support for Ukraine.
But if Israel responds aggressively to Iran’s attack, all bets are off.
Any major retaliation would force an Iranian response, potentially leading to an escalatory cycle that ends in a full-scale war. This would certainly pull in Iran’s regional proxies, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, and would result in tremendous amounts of death.
Even if this disaster is averted, an Israeli response would infuriate the American government — which both played a critical role in intercepting Iran’s missile barrage and are strongly opposing any future Israeli retaliation.
Israeli escalation would snatch strategic defeat from the jaws of victory. Yet Israel’s government is reportedly considering it anyway. A source told reporter Ronen Bergman that ‘if the [internal government] talks were broadcast live on YouTube, you’d have 4 million people clamoring at Ben Gurion airport trying to get out of here.’
Prior to October 7, Netanyahu had a reputation for being cautious about using force. But since the Hamas attack, he has been astonishingly aggressive — embracing a maximalist, open-ended campaign in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians while putting Israel on the road to strategic defeat.
The cooler heads in Israel seem to recognize reality. When war cabinet member Benny Gantz vowed that ‘this event isn’t over yet,’ he also said that ‘we will build a regional coalition and we will make Iran pay the price at a time and in a manner that we choose” — framing that at least implies that Israel isn’t planning imminent unilateral action.
So Israel might yet get out of this mess without a major disaster. Yet experts also warn that this attack might have longer-term destabilizing ramifications.
‘Even if Israel chooses not to retaliate now, we are not quite back to where we were before. Status quo has changed with the precedent of a large-scale Iranian attack on Israel,’ writes Thomas Juneau, a Middle East scholar at the University of Ottawa, who predicted ‘a higher baseline of tension and violence’ going forward.
A post-attack statement from Hossein Salami, the leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, supports Juneau’s analysis. Salami said Iran has ‘decided to create a new equation’ with Israel, one where any Israeli attack against Iranian personnel anywhere will be met with direct attacks by Iran on Israel. Previously, Israel had managed to conduct strikes on Iranian interests in places like Syria without direct retaliation — which carries greater risks of escalation to out-and-out war.
On Saturday night, the term “World War III” began trending on Twitter/X. It’s safe to say at this point that these fears were overblown. But the Middle East remains a powder keg — one that’s slightly more stuffed with gunpowder than it was before.”
—Zack Beauchamp, senior correspondent [Vox]
“For all the horrors of Gaza and Ukraine, what is threatening to become the world’s biggest hunger crisis and is already the largest displacement disaster lies elsewhere.
The plight of Sudan is almost completely absent from a global conversation consumed by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza as well as its worsening confrontation with Iran.
About 15,000 people have died since the civil war in the North African nation began a year ago today, and another 18 million people are experiencing ‘acute hunger,’ according to the United Nations World Food Programme. Nearly 11 million have been driven from their homes and large parts of the capital, Khartoum, are in ruins.
With fears of widespread famine growing, donors are gathering in Paris today for another high-level pledging conference, yet neither of the combatants will be represented.
At the center of the fight are the Sudanese army under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan aligned with various Islamist elements, and the Rapid Support Forces rebel militia, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and born out of the remnants of the infamous janjaweed — ‘devils on horseback’ — that was accused of perpetrating genocide in the Darfur region.
Middle Eastern states are deeply involved, Mohammed Alamin and Simon Marks write. The United Arab Emirates is a key backer of the RSF, supplying it with weapons and funding, according to a leaked UN report. The UAE denies any involvement. Meanwhile, Iran has supplied drones to the army, Western diplomats say.
On the ground, Sudan’s complex patchwork of allegiances is only making things more complicated with well-armed militia groups taking sides, Islamists joining the army’s ranks and ordinary civilians taking up arms.
That volatile mix has raised fears that even if a cease-fire is struck — a longshot given repeated failed attempts brokered by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and others — the nightmare for Sudanese will continue.” — Neil Munshi [Bloomberg]
A fire rages in al-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, in September 2023, after a bombardment by the RSF. Source: AFP/Getty Images
“Ensuring that any retaliation by Israel against Iran for its weekend salvo of missiles and drones doesn’t raise the stakes too high is the key goal of the US and allies. Behind the unprecedented nature of the attack was a dance of diplomatic signaling that allowed both sides to claim success, raising the risk of a broader conflict without making it a certainty.” [Bloomberg]
Demonstrators celebrate the attack on Israel at Palestine Square in Tehran yesterday. Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in China with a warning: President Xi Jinping must act soon to address discriminatory business practices if he is to avoid European Union tariffs, including on electric vehicles. ‘Competition must be fair,’ Scholz said in Shanghai today, identifying dumping and copyright infringement as core areas of concern, in a similar message to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Scholz is due to meet with Xi tomorrow.” [Bloomberg]
“Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is resisting advice to set the date for the next UK general election, risking a leadership challenge, sources tell Alex Wickham and Kitty Donaldson. Sunak will be in more trouble with his fractured Conservative Party if they do as badly as forecast in local voting on May 2. The best way to safeguard his position would be to enter campaign mode for the national election, which is due by late January, yet he is unwilling to do so while so far behind the main opposition Labour Party in the polls.” [Bloomberg]
“A rundown factory on the edge of the Czech medieval town of Sternberk used to fix military vehicles abandoned by the Nazis after World War II. Now it refits Soviet-era tanks for action in Ukraine. The plant is part of a compound churning out military hardware for the war that has made a billionaire of its owner as defense firms boom in the new geopolitical landscape.” [Bloomberg]
“As the El Niño weather pattern withers crops in Zimbabwe, as well as other southern African nations such as Malawi and Zambia, the government in Harare is considering importing corn from Brazil for the first time since 2014. Normally, the three countries are self-sufficient or can meet the bulk of their own needs with occasional shortfalls covered by imports from South Africa, the biggest producer in the region.” [Bloomberg]
“Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged allies and partners ‘to take extraordinary steps’ to provide more air defense systems to repel Russian attacks.” [Bloomberg]
“Civil society groups led by Amnesty International called on the Nigerian government to block Shell’s proposed sale of its onshore oil business to ensure adequate safeguards for human rights.” [Bloomberg]
“Venezuela’s government arrested two high-level energy officials yesterday following the detention of a former oil minister amid an investigation into billions of lost revenue at the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela.” [Bloomberg]
“In “Knife,” Salman Rushdie addresses the 2022 attack that blinded him in one eye. He also details how his wife supported his recovery. ‘I wanted to write a book which was about both love and hatred — one overcoming the other,’ he told The Times.” [New York Times]
“Hundreds of survivors of the 2017 bombing of an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England, have taken legal action against Britain’s intelligence services for not doing more to prevent the attack, The Guardian reports.” [New York Times]
Tesla to shed more than 10 percent of its workforce as EV demand cools
“The move by CEO Elon Musk comes after the company, which employed more than 140,000 as of December, reported a sharp decline in vehicle deliveries in the first quarter.”
Read more at Washington Post
Texas-sized chip investment
Construction at Samsung Austin Semiconductor plant in Taylor, Texas, in November. Photo: Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman via Reuters
“President Biden this morning announced $6.4 billion in grants to Samsung for the South Korean company to expand chip production in the Austin area.
Why it matters: The massive Biden-led investment in chip production aims to reduce dependence on China and Taiwan, and gives the administration a permanent legacy across the U.S.
The preliminary agreement with the Commerce Department ‘will unleash over $40 billion in investment from Samsung, and cement central Texas's role as a state-of-the-art semiconductor ecosystem, creating at least 21,500 jobs and leveraging up to $40 million in CHIPS funding to train and develop the local workforce,’ the White House announcement says.
The agreement includes an existing site in Austin and a new chip manufacturing hub nearby in Taylor, Texas.
‘Aside from manufacturing chips, Samsung will now construct a research and development facility in Taylor as well as an advanced factory for packaging them, the final step before semiconductors can be used in electronic systems,’ the N.Y. Times reports.” [Axios]
Scottie Scheffler won the Masters for a second time.
Scheffler celebrates on the 18th green after winning at Augusta National in Georgia. (Erik S Lesser/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
“How he did it: Scheffler, the tournament favorite, finished the job yesterday after starting the final round with a one-shot lead. Sweden’s Ludvig Aberg finished second.
What it means: It was the second career major title for Scheffler, 27, who earned his first green jacket in 2022. It cemented the Texan’s place as the world’s best golfer.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Scottie Scheffler poses with the winner's trophy after the final round of the Masters Tournament on April 14, 2024.
Michael Madrid, USA TODAY Sports
“Lives Lived: Don Wright was a two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning editorial cartoonist who commented wryly on war and segregation. He died at 90.” [New York Times]