The Full Belmonte, 4/13/2022
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“Supply chain disruptions, strong consumer demand, as well as food and fuel shortages amid the war in Ukraine, have sent US inflation soaring to a 40-year high in March.” [Vox] Read more at Associated Press / Paul Wiseman
“According to data the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday, the consumer price index (CPI) — a key measure of inflation — rose by 8.5 percent in the last year. CPI rose by 1.2 percent from February to March, with gas, food, and housing driving most price increases.” [Vox] Read more at Axios
“Gasoline prices surged 48 percent over last year, and the war in Ukraine sent prices to record highs in March. In an effort to reduce prices, the White House announced that a summer ban on cheaper, potentially dirtier ethanol-rich gas will be lifted this year.” [Vox] Read more at New York Times / Lisa Friedman and Michael D. Shear
“The Federal Reserve has now ended its pandemic stimulus and began hiking interest rates in March to slow inflation. More aggressive increases are expected from this year into 2023.” [Vox] Read more at CNBC / Jeff Cox
“‘Core’ inflation, a measure that doesn’t include volatile food and energy costs, grew 6.5 percent over the past year — the most significant increase since 1982. But rates grew slower than expected from February to March, which could mean some inflation relief is ahead.” [Vox] Read more at USA Today / Paul Davidson
“More than 720 people have been killed in Bucha and other suburbs of Ukraine's capital city Kyiv that were occupied by Russian troops and more than 200 are considered missing, the Interior Ministry of Ukraine said early Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed Tuesday that his nation's bloody offensive in Ukraine would continue until its goals are fulfilled and insisted the campaign was going as planned, despite a major withdrawal in the face of stiff Ukrainian opposition and significant losses. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden made a point of calling Russia's actions in Ukraine a ‘genocide’ on the same day Putin said peace talks have reached a ‘dead end.’ Biden told reporters Tuesday he intentionally used the word ‘genocide,’ something he had previously avoided. Biden's comments drew praise from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Twitter. ‘True words of a true leader @POTUS,’ Zelenskyy tweeted.” Read more at USA Today
Wounded people at the 36th Street station yesterday.Armen Armenian/via Reuters
“An intensive hunt is underway for the man who set off smoke grenades and fired a handgun on a crowded New York City subway train yesterday, wounding passengers and setting off a panic during the morning rush hour. Investigators have named Frank James, 62, a ‘person of interest,’ who they believe rented a U-Haul van that has been connected to the shooting in Brooklyn's Sunset Park. The gunman fired at least 33 times and struck 10 people, according to NYPD Chief of Detectives James Essig. Overall, 29 people were hospitalized in connection with the shooting with injuries that included gunshot wounds, smoke inhalation or from falling while trying to escape, officials said. CNN has linked James to multiple rambling videos posted on YouTube where he talked about violence and mass shootings, including one uploaded Monday in which he said he's thought about killing people who have presumably hurt him.” Read more at CNN
“Tuesday, the South Dakota House impeached state attorney general Jason Ravnsborg for his involvement in a fatal crash in 2020.” [Vox] Read more at Newsweek / Zoe Strozewski
“Some universities across the US are partially reinstating campus mask mandates following an uptick in Covid-19 cases. The latest schools to bring back indoor masking requirements are three universities in the Washington, DC, region -- American, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins. This comes as Covid-19 case numbers have begun to edge up throughout the country, and nearly all of them are caused by the Omicron subvariant BA.2. According to the latest estimates from the CDC, BA.2 caused 86% of new Covid-19 cases nationwide last week. But there are some reasons for optimism. US hospitalizations are at record low levels, and they continue to drop. Deaths also continue to fall.” Read more at CNN
“New York Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin was indicted on public-corruption charges stemming from an alleged bribery scheme. Prosecutors said that as a state senator, he got campaign contributions from a real-estate developer in exchange for securing a $50,000 grant for a nonprofit controlled by the developer. Benjamin allegedly then tried to cover it up. A judge has required him to post a $250,000 bond as part of his release and restricted his travel. His lawyers declined to comment.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“At least 23 people were hurt yesterday after tornadoes touched down in Bell County, Texas. Twelve of those injured were hospitalized, Bell County Judge David Blackburn said, adding that he believes everyone is accounted for. The damages ranged from downed power lines and trees to buildings being flattened in many areas, Blackburn said. The storm system, which delivered at least eight tornadoes mainly in Texas and Iowa, also brought heavy snow to multiple states. Parts of the Dakotas and Montana were under blizzard warnings and forecasters warned of treacherous whiteout conditions on the roads. More than 97 million people are under severe weather alerts today, stretching from Texas and Louisiana up to Missouri and Illinois.” Read more at CNN
“The Democratic National Committee is considering a proposal that would overhaul the party's traditional calendar, in which Iowa's caucuses go first. Many critics have argued that Iowa and New Hampshire — the state with the second caucus — are not diverse enough to lead the nominating process.” Read more at NPR
“British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his finance minister have been fined by police for hosting parties on UK government premises during the Covid-19 lockdown. London's Metropolitan Police yesterday said they had issued more than 50 fines as part of their investigation into gatherings held on government premises in Downing Street and Whitehall while the rest of the country was living under strict pandemic restrictions. Revelations of the parties sparked national outrage. The penalty makes Johnson the first sitting UK Prime Minister to be found guilty of breaking the law. Late yesterday, Johnson apologized for breaching the lockdown rules, and said that he had paid the fines issued by the Metropolitan Police.” Read more at CNN
“Sweden and Finland — two historically neutral counties — may be edging closer to the US-led defense alliance NATO, due to Russian aggression in Ukraine.” [Vox] Read more at CNN / Luke McGee
“The French presidential election showdown between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen puts the country at a crossroads on foreign policy. And though Macron still holds an edge, a Le Pen victory is well within range, and the National Rally leader knows it.
Today, Le Pen will take questions from the press on her foreign policy positions as she seeks to cast herself as a presidential alternative. So, how would a Le Pen presidency change France’s posture toward the world?
As in 2017 and now, Le Pen’s focus has mainly centered on domestic concerns, leaving foreign policy often as an afterthought. ‘Her foreign policy, to me, is either obscure or changeable, depending on the circumstances,’ Phillipe Le Corre, a former French government official and non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Foreign Policy.
Le Corre cited two examples: Le Pen was in favor of ditching the euro currency in the last election (she now wants to keep it), campaigning this month, she said she had ‘partly changed’ her mind on Russian President Vladimir Putin following his ‘indefensible’ decision to invade Ukraine.
French voters don’t seem to care. She (along with Macron and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon) gained support in the first round of France’s presidential contest compared to 2017, in a campaign that has hinged on domestic issues, with the cost of living at the forefront.
While Le Pen is difficult to pin down, there are some aspects to her international outlook that have remained constant, and which diverge markedly from her rival Macron.
The EU and NATO. ‘There are really concrete policy reforms that Macron has in mind to strengthen the EU and use it as a vehicle for French interests. Le Pen is the exact opposite,’ Martin Quencez, the deputy director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund, told FP.
Although not an outright proponent of ‘Frexit,’ Le Pen has been critical of the constraints EU law would put on her agenda. Like her fellow right-wingers in Poland, Le Pen takes issue with the primacy of EU law, arguing the French constitution should come first. Her views on border controls would come in direct confrontation with the EU’s freedom of movement principles, as would her support for protectionist policies in support of French workers.
On NATO, Le Pen shares the view of her third-placed challenger, Mélenchon, that France would be better off without the treaty alliance, so that France would ‘be no longer caught up in conflicts that are not ours.’
Ukraine. A Le Pen presidency would likely see France become a spoiler when it comes to Europe’s largely unified response to the war in Ukraine. ‘She would probably go further than Viktor Orban and in fact block some of the decisions in Brussels that have to do with Ukraine,’ Quencez said
Like Hungary’s newly reelected prime minister, Le Pen has been outspoken on European weapons transfers, saying that sending weapons into Ukraine risked turning France into a co-belligerent in the war (not necessarily a unique position seeing as that was Germany’s stance up until a few weeks ago).
The rising right. Like the victory of Donald Trump in 2016, a Le Pen win would show the strength of right-wing leaders globally and give Europe’s odd ones out—Poland and Hungary—a major champion. (The ideological connections have their own transatlantic flavor: the usually U.S.-based Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC, will hold its May conference in Budapest, with Orban as keynote speaker).
But as with almost everything, the war in Ukraine has upended old dynamics on the European right. Le Pen may still find common ground with Orban, but in Poland it will be a different story. ‘It will be difficult for Le Pen to find an ally in Warsaw. The invasion has changed all that,’ Quencez added.
‘No matter how large the alliance, Le Pen’s arrival at the Elysée Palace would be valuable for authoritarians outside the EU. From Putin’s point of view, from Xi Jinping’s point of view, having this kind of leader might be good news,’ Carnegie’s Le Corre said. ‘Putin’s been working to destabilize Europe for the past ten years or so. Anything would do.’
But can she win? With polls currently predicting a narrow Macron win, Le Pen has a complicated route to victory. Much will depend on the disposition of Mélenchon voters, who, according to a recent poll, would mostly rather not vote at all in the second round; 44 percent say they plan to abstain, 33 percent say they would vote for Macron, while the remaining 23 percent would go for Le Pen. Macron has already begun the courtship by softening his positions on retirement reform.
By focusing so much of his campaign to date on foreign policy in a bid to demonize Le Pen’s links with Putin, Macron may himself be showing some naiveté, and keeping opportunities open for the right-wing leader. ‘I’m personally a bit concerned by the fact that the Macron campaign is so focused on foreign policy right now,’ GMF’s Quencez said. ‘They thought the connection between Le Pen and Putin would be enough to make him the only credible candidate. But look at the polls, the priority for French voters is inflation, it’s rising prices.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Facing 12 years of drought, Chilean officials might begin rationing water in the capital Santiago.” [Vox] Read more at Al Jazeera
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has increased the cost of natural gas needed to make fertilizer — threatening the global food supply.” [Vox] Read more at AP / Geoffrey Kaviti, Chinedu Asadu, and Paul Wiseman
“Actor and comedian Gilbert Gottfried has died after a long illness. He was 67.” Read more at USA Today
Comedian Gilbert Gottfried performs at a David Lynch Foundation Benefit for Veterans with PTSD on April 30, 2016, in New York. Gottfried’s publicist and longtime friend Glenn Schwartz said Gottfried, an actor and legendary standup comic known for his abrasive voice and crude jokes, died Tuesday, April 12, 2022. He was 67.Scott Roth, Scott Roth/Invision/AP