The Full Belmonte, 4/11/2022
Ukrainian forces fire rockets yesterday toward Russian positions in Donbas, Ukraine.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, after a shift away from efforts to take Kyiv, is proceeding primarily on two fronts, said Ukrainian officials: against the southeastern port city of Mariupol, and in the country’s far east, especially the contested region of Luhansk. The refocus to the east, away from the largest cities, could prove a challenge for Ukraine’s forces.” Read more at Washington Post
“With the war in Ukraine in its seventh week and Russia pressing its campaign more forcefully in the east, the calculus on Moscow appears to be shifting.
The U.S. and Europe would never say it officially, but the unprecedented sanctions on Russia haven’t had any discernible impact on the war. Even the further penalties in the works, including potential bans on more Russian energy, are unlikely to change Vladimir Putin’s thinking.
Putin seems willing to tolerate the economic and financial squeeze, and as long as the president can force his people to do the same, sanctions won’t lead him to pull back in Ukraine.
Indeed, Russian troops are pressing forward in the eastern Donbas region, having largely given up their campaign in the north after weeks without progress. Putin would no doubt like to claim at least a partial win by May 9, when Russia marks its victory day in World War II. Moscow has also streamlined its military leadership in Ukraine under one commander.
So far the only thing that has slowed Putin down has been his military’s fumbles in northern Ukraine. Weapons sent by Europe and the U.S., especially anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, have proven a boon for the Ukrainian forces mounting fierce resistance on the ground.
As Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said last week, Ukraine needs three things: ‘weapons, weapons and weapons.’
Allies are responding. They are agreeing to send more offensive arms including tanks, though fighter jets may still be off the table. NATO members are talking about training Ukrainian forces on more modern equipment rather than just sending them Soviet-made kit.
European Union diplomatic chief Josep Borrell says ‘this war will be won on the battlefield.’
That may sound self-evident, but it reflects the reality that sanctions probably won’t deter Putin. More losses in Ukraine just might.” — Rosalind Mathieson Read more at Bloomberg
“Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are projected to advance to the second round of the French presidential election, an analysis of early results showed, setting up a rematch of the 2017 contest. Macron, France's current president, is in first place with 28.6% following a preliminary count of the votes from the first round of the election yesterday. Le Pen, a long-time standard-bearer for the French far-right, is on track to come in second with 23.6%. Twelve candidates ran for the top job. Since none of them received more than 50% of the ballots in the first round, the top two candidates will face each other in a runoff on April 24. Macron is seeking to become the first French president to win reelection since Jacques Chirac in 2002, but Le Pen's support has steadily risen in recent weeks.” Read more at CNN
“Austria’s chancellor is set to meet Vladimir Putin on Monday, the Russian president’s first face-to-face meeting with an EU leader since ordering the invasion of Ukraine, amid warnings of a fresh offensive and shelling in the east.
Karl Nehammer said the meeting would take place in Moscow and that Austria had a ‘clear position on the Russian war of aggression’, calling for humanitarian corridors, a ceasefire and full investigation of war crimes.
The UK Ministry of Defence warned on Monday morning that Russian forces may resort to using phosphorous weapons in Mariupol as fighting for the city intensifies. it cited the previous use of the munitions by Russian soldiers in Donetsk.” Read more at The Guardian
“A Texas district attorney said that he will file a motion Monday to dismiss a murder charge against a woman who was arrested in ‘the death of an individual by self-induced abortion.’ The Starr County Sheriff's Office arrested Lizelle Herrera, 26, on Thursday. It is unclear whether Herrera was accused of having a self-induced abortion or whether she helped someone else get an abortion, and the sheriff's office did not say under which law Herrera was charged. ‘In reviewing applicable Texas law, it is clear that Ms. Herrera cannot and should not be prosecuted for the allegation against her,’ County District Attorney Gocha Allen Ramirez wrote in a news release. In a statement to The Associated Press, the sheriff's office wrote that Herrera was charged after ‘intentionally and knowingly causing the death of an individual by a self-induced abortion.’” Read more at USA Today
“Maryland lawmakers voted to expand abortion access, overriding the Republican governor’s veto.” Read more at New York Times
“Gun violence plagued the US again this weekend following several deadly shootings that took place across the country. Four people, including two teens, were shot shortly after an MLB game in Washington, DC, on Saturday night, police said. In Illinois, six people were found injured after a shooting occurred in a residential neighborhood. Police are also investigating a shooting at a birthday party in Indianapolis where six people were shot and one person was killed. Two people were also killed and 10 hospitalized after a ‘targeted attack’ at a Cedar Rapids nightclub, police say. This comes as President Biden is expected to announce a new firearm regulation as soon as today meant to contain the use of privately made weapons known as ‘ghost guns’ that are unregulated and untraceable.” Read more at CNN
“A federal judge has indicated that an attempt to stop the far-right Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene running for re-election will be allowed to proceed.
The challenge from a group of Georgia voters says Greene should be disqualified under the 14th amendment to the US constitution, because she supported insurrectionists who attacked the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.
A similar challenge in North Carolina, against Madison Cawthorn, another prominent supporter of Donald Trump, was blocked.
But on Friday Amy Totenberg, a federal judge in Georgia, said she had ‘significant questions and concerns’ about the ruling in the Cawthorn case, CNN reported.” Read more at The Guardian
Wilfredo Lee/AP
“It isn't ending in Florida: at least a dozen states nationwide are considering bills mirroring controversial Florida legislation critics dubbed a "Don't Say Gay" law. Each state's bill is a little different, but in general they seek to prohibit schools from using a curriculum on or discussing topics of gender identity or sexual orientation. Critics say these bills are an ‘overt form of structural transphobia and homophobia.’” Read more at NPR
“Elon Musk won't be joining Twitter's board after all. He became the company's largest shareholder last week and was set to join the board on Saturday, but changed his mind. Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal said Musk did not give a reason for his decision.” Read more at NPR
“NYC Mayor Eric Adams has tested positive for COVID-19 on his 100th day in office. He has no symptoms, but has canceled all public events and will work remotely.” Read more at NPR
“The Spanish Civil Guard is investigating the owner of a private taxidermy collection that includes some animals from protected or extinct species. The collection has more than 1,000 animals.” Read more at NPR
“Ukraine has opened 5,600 war crimes cases since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s top prosecutor Iryna Venediktova said, but the country will face an uphill battle getting Russian officials to court.” Read more at Washington Post
“Russian students are turning in teachers who don’t back the war. It’s a campaign with dark Soviet echoes, inspired last month by President Vladimir Putin, who praised Russians for their ability to identify ‘scum and traitors’ and ‘spit them out like a fly.’” Read more at Washington Post
“Charles de Gaulle, the towering French leader who ushered in the country’s Fifth Republic, believed in a strong presidency anchoring a strong, stable state. The constitution that he and his allies implemented provided for direct universal suffrage elections for the presidency, organized over two rounds. By doing so, executive power in France could be insulated from the vagaries of parliamentary and party politics. The second round runoff, moreover, would likely help protect the republic from extremist challengers, who in theory could never command a majority of votes in a two-person contest.
That logic may still hold more than six decades later as French voters await the April 24 second round runoff between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. But it may not.
Le Pen — who finished, as expected, second in first-round round voting Sunday, three points behind Macron — will likely not in two weeks face the same landslide defeat that Macron scored over her five years ago. Macron had emerged then as a young maverick centrist who campaigned on a platform of ‘neither left nor right.’ In 2017, a big-tent coalition of voters across the political spectrum united to give him a resounding runoff victory over Le Pen, the scion of a movement once rooted in neofascism and anti-democratic violence.
Polls now suggest a far tighter contest, with many on the French right and potentially even some voters from the far-left casting a ballot for Le Pen. Abstentions from a growing pool of people disenchanted with their options and tired of Macron may also boost Le Pen’s chances. Macron, far from an outsider reinvigorating the French state, appears to many of his opponents as the aloof agent of a wealthy elite establishment and custodian of a fragile status quo in need of reform.
Le Pen worked hard to detoxify her and her party’s image, casting herself as an empathetic economic populist. She was also somewhat aided by a rival far-right bid from ultranationalist gadfly Eric Zemmour, whose incendiary rhetoric served to make her look all the more moderate.
‘Le Pen largely avoided emphasizing her most controversial proposals and instead focused on echoing popular concerns about the economy and rising inflation,’ explained my colleague Rick Noack. ‘But in their substance, many of Le Pen’s positions are as radical as they were five years ago. This past week, she vowed to issue fines to Muslims who wear headscarves in public.’
‘For many French people, the Le Pen name is no longer viewed with disdain,’ wrote the Guardian’s Kim Willsher, on the trail with the far-right candidate. Now, she added, ‘Macron will face the biggest political fight of his career to keep her out of the Élysée Palace.’
Le Pen’s seeming rehabilitation is also thanks to Macron’s own political trajectory. While the country’s traditional mainstream factions — the center-left Socialists and center-right Republicans (standard bearers of de Gaulle’s political legacy) — remain relevant in local and municipal votes, they have been humbled on the national stage, losing most of their voters to Macron and his movement. In the presidential vote, they were wiped out, pooling less than 7 percent of the vote, collectively.
‘A complete reconfiguration of French politics is about to take place,’ said Tara Varma, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in an email. ‘It started in 2017 but will now be achieved.’
Meanwhile, more than half the French electorate opted for candidates on the anti-establishment extremes, including Le Pen, Zemmour and far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who finished just short of Le Pen.
‘What is happening is that the moderate left and right are disappearing,’ said Pierre Mathiot, the director of Sciences Po Lille, to my colleagues. ‘Macron is in the process of crushing the center of politics — but the more he crushes it, the more he gives room to the radical wings.’
Other analysts argue that Macron is, himself, a center-right politician. He ‘has systematically adopted [the mainstream right’s] core positions, including retirement at 65, work requirements for welfare beneficiaries, and a reduction in the inheritance tax. This amounts to a full-scale takeover of the French center right,’ wrote Daniel Cohen, president of the Board of Directors of the Paris School of Economics. ‘If Macron is re-elected, he will preside over a formidable big-tent party, and the Republicans will be left with crumbs, squeezed between a resurgent far right and a governing party that is intent on devouring them.’
Part of what’s in play follows trends familiar elsewhere in Western European politics — specifically, the weakening of traditional mainstream parties in favor of a more complicated, fragmented political scene. But in France, unlike Germany, environmental politics championed by the center left took a back seat to culture warring over immigration and national identity. By the end of his term, Macron had pivoted sharply right, unfurling legislation against ‘Islamist separatism’ in French society, while his allies inveighed against ‘Islamo-leftism’ in universities.
The cultural anxieties coursing through the election campaign won’t be easy to reconcile. ‘I want to be optimistic,’ Shahin Vallée, a former Macron adviser now at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told the New Statesman. ‘But it is a long-run optimism — that we can get over these tensions and accept this multi-faith and multi-cultural society, which means accepting a different definition of universalism from the one we have now.’
For the time being, though, the French left appears demotivated and divided, while the French president may continue fighting Le Pen on her terrain. ‘Macron is playing a dangerous game,’ wrote Didier Fassin, director of studies at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, Paris. ‘By absorbing his opponents’ views into his own platform, he risks bringing about a political landscape hazardously skewed to the right.’
Far from being a ‘rampart’ against the far right, Fassin warned, Macron may end up ‘offering a bridge’ to them.” Read more at Washington Post
“Pakistan’s parliament is set to vote in a new prime minister this morning following the ouster of Imran Khan over the weekend. Shehbaz Sharif is expected to assume the role, although if Pakistan’s history is any indication, it won’t be for long; Khan’s exit means no Pakistani prime minister has ever finished a parliamentary term.
While Khan was ousted via democratic means (a first for Pakistan), his departure had been foreshadowed late last year when he ran afoul of the country’s powerful military establishment. Michael Kugelman, a regional expert at the Wilson Center and author of FP’s South Asia Brief, explained why the parliamentary nature of Khan’s removal obscures what lies beneath.
‘The Army is perfectly happy to pull strings from behind the scenes and exert influence quietly without holding power directly, because it recognizes that it’s better to let the civilians take the fall for the policy failures,’ Kugelman told Foreign Policy. ‘And that insulates the army and helps ensure its continued popularity.’
As the BBC tells it, (often direct) military pressure to remain on Khan’s side had largely evaporated in the last few weeks, allowing lawmakers to defect to the opposition and ensure his downfall. ‘We used to be manhandled,’ one defector from Khan’s party told the BBC, describing past calls from Pakistani intelligence services. ‘Now the army is not interfering.’
Khan’s stewardship of the economy didn’t help his situation. Inflation has spiked under his leadership, pre-dating the recent global surge, and a Gallup poll at the beginning of this year found that it was the number one concern of more than 60 percent of respondents. A $6 billion IMF program has also hit Pakistani wallets, with an increase in taxes a prerequisite for the country to receive funding.
Princeton economist Atif Mian said Khan’s government, inheriting a weak economy in 2018, ‘went for the usual shortcuts’ in its economic policy instead of focusing on sustainable growth. ‘The basic sense was missing,’ Mian wrote in a Twitter thread.
Khan’s replacement, Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, is considered close with the military and comes with a solid political track record from his time as chief minister of Punjab, a province home to roughly half of Pakistan’s 220 million population. His tenure could prove short, with Khan’s PTI party threatening to resign en masse once Sharif is voted in, raising the probability of new elections well before parliament’s term expires in 2023.
Since Pakistan’s military largely calls the shots in directing foreign policy, the change in leadership shouldn’t upset the country’s geopolitical balancing act, which has included a warming of relations with Russia (Khan visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow the day Russia invaded Ukraine).
It may affect the Taliban in next door Afghanistan, however. Khan praised the group’s takeover in August for ‘breaking the chains of slavery,’ and had been one of the few world leaders to call for international recognition of the Taliban government. Speaking on Sunday, a Taliban spokesman said the upheaval would ‘not have any particular impact’ on relations between the two countries.
Khan, a famous cricketer before a turn to politics, is unlikely to fade away from the political scene, with rallies in major cities across the country on Sunday evening underlining his popular support. Khan thanked his supporters on Twitter for protesting ‘U.S. backed regime change’ helped by ‘local Mir Jafars,’ or traitors. Kugelman expects Khan to persist in that anti-American rhetoric in a country where throwing around such accusations finds fertile ground.
‘He’s going to try to continue to rally his base and do everything he can to be in a strong position when the next election comes,’ Kugelman said. ‘I think the big question is, will he still retain the capacity to mobilize and energize on levels that he had in the past?’
‘He did upset a lot of people in his handling of the economy, his relationship with the military has taken hits, and so they won’t be doing him any favors as we get into the campaign season. So that would make it tough for him. But he’s not going to give in.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“U.S.-India 2+2. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcome their Indian counterparts Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar and Minister of Defense Shri Rajnath Singh for a 2+2 ministerial dialogue in Washington today. The visit comes as global powers jockey to influence New Delhi as it takes a non-aligned stance to the war in Ukraine.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Australia’s election. Australia will hold parliamentary elections on May 21, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced on Sunday, with polls predicting these could be the Liberal Party leader’s final weeks in office. The opposition Labor Party, headed by Anthony Albanese, is currently favored to win—as they were in 2018 when Morrison defied the polls to score an upset victory. Morrison has framed the choice as one ‘between a government you know and a Labor opposition that you don’t.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“The Iran deal. Iranian lawmakers on Sunday announced conditions under which the 2015 nuclear should be revived, including a call for guarantees, approved by the U.S. Congress, that the United States would not leave the deal and that the U.S. government would not ‘use pretexts to trigger the snapback mechanism’ on sanctions.
The demands were made in a letter signed by 250 of 290 Iranian lawmakers and came as Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian called on U.S. President Joe Biden to lift some sanctions via executive order as a sign of goodwill.
After months of negotiations, why is a deal not yet across the line? Writing last week, FP’s Colum Lynch explored why it’s becoming such a hard sell in Washington and beyond.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“China-Serbia ties. China delivered an advanced anti-aircraft system to Serbia over the weekend, in a sign of growing military ties between the two countries. Serbia had agreed to purchase the FK-3 (or HQ-22) systems in 2019 and had recently complained that neighboring countries were preventing the delivery by refusing overflight permission to Chinese military planes. Once deployed, it will the first such use of the equipment in Europe. The system joins other Chinese equipment, like Chengdu Pterodactyl-1 drones, which Serbia acquired in 2020.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Indonesian President Joko Widodo appeared to dismiss a plan by a senior cabinet official to extend his time in office with thousands of students set to protest in Jakarta over a possible constitutional change to allow a third term.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Rishi Sunak asked for a formal review into whether he properly declared his financial interests, as the U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer tries to defuse a row over his tax affairs.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Mexican voters overwhelmingly backed President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to finish his six-year term in a recall referendum set by the leader himself, although turnout was low.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned the U.S. against isolating China over the war in Ukraine by framing it as a battle between democracies and autocracies.” Read more at Bloomberg
“South Africa’s African National Congress elected an ex-mayor charged with corruption to a top post in a key region, dealing a blow to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s efforts to clean up the party.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is under pressure to step down as citizens demand accountability for decisions leading to Asia’s fastest inflation and food and fuel shortages. His once-formidable majority in parliament is gone, yet the leader is adamant he won’t quit. Niluksi Koswanage explains the scenarios that lie ahead for the island nation as it’s rocked by protests.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Police in India are searching for perpetrators after a gang stole a 60 foot-long bridge in a village in the eastern state of Bihar. The authorities said the thieves had posed as irrigation authorities, and had taken two days to dismantle the abandoned bridge using heavy equipment, with likely plans to sell the metal as scrap. Police said local villagers had assumed that the local government had finally decided to take the bridge apart, having previously petitioned the irrigation department to secure its removal.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Scottie Scheffler won the 2022 Masters golf tournament yesterday following a dominant performance at Augusta National. This is his first major title after finishing ahead of Northern Irishman Rory McIlroy. Over the four days at the sprawling golf club in Augusta, Georgia, the 25-year-old produced some excellent golf, refusing to falter under the pressure of being the tournament's leader for nearly three days. Tiger Woods also notably made a comeback at the Masters. Although it didn’t end with a big win, many say Woods displayed incredible grit and determination. His injuries and lack of match fitness seemed to catch up with him though after he carded a six-over par 78 on Saturday, his worst score in a Masters round, and finished with the same score yesterday.” Read more at CNN
Scottie Scheffler dons the green jacket — aided by the previous winner, Japan's Hideki Matsuyama. Photo: Mike Blake/Reuters
“Scottie Scheffler — age 25, and the pride of Highland Park High School in Dallas — dominated the Masters, cementing his status as the hottest golfer on Earth, Axios Sports author Kendall Baker writes.
Why it matters: Scheffler joins Jordan Spieth (2015) and Tiger Woods (1997, 2001) as the only players age 25 or younger to win the Masters over the last 40 years.
Eight weeks ago, Scheffler had zero PGA Tour wins and $8.7 million in earnings. 57 days later, he has four wins, $17.6 million in earnings, a green jacket and a No. 1 world ranking. Not bad.
After a week that revolved around Tiger Woods, the spotlight has shifted back to the generation he inspired.
‘I play Tiger's irons,’ said Scheffler yesterday. ‘I wear his shoes. I wore his shirt this week. ... We're so glad to have him back.’” Read more at Axios
“Lives Lived: Jordan Mooney was an avatar of punk style, presiding over the transgressive London boutique Sex in spiked heels and a peroxide bouffant. She died at 66.” Read more at New York Times