The Full Belmonte, 3/5/2024
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign stop at the Portland Elks Club in Portland, Maine. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
Election 2024
“It’s going to be a defining week for the 2024 presidential elections. The results of the 15-state Super Tuesday GOP Primaries should put former President Donald Trump even closer to the Republican nomination, and President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address Thursday will give him a chance to make his case to a divided nation. Over the weekend, Trump took all 39 Michigan GOP primary delegates despite party leadership battles in the state. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley also won the DC GOP primary — her first of the year. Despite the growing inevitability of a Trump nomination, Haley isn’t letting up on her fellow Republican: In an interview with NBC, Haley suggested she’s no longer bound by a Republican National Committee pledge to support the eventual nominee.” [CNN]
Biden's defiant confidence
Photo: Thea Traff for The New Yorker. Used by kind permission
“President Biden, during a rare Oval Office interview, told The New Yorker's Evan Osnos that he doesn't think former President Trump will concede if he loses in November.
‘Losers who are losers are never graceful,’ Biden says in the 14,000-word profile, "The Last Campaign," which the magazine posted this morning. ‘I just think that he'll do anything to try to win. If — and when — I win, I think he'll contest it. No matter what the result is.’
Why it matters: This is personal. ‘Trump had not just tried to steal the presidency — he had tried to steal it from him,’ Osnos writes.
During the interview, Biden tossed a white notecard on the Resolute Desk.
The card was filled with quotes by Trump: threatening ‘termination’ of parts of the Constitution, talking of being a dictator on ‘Day 1,’ and describing immigrants as ‘poisoning the blood of our country.’
‘What the hell?!’ Biden. ‘If you and I had sat down 10 years ago and I said a president is going to say those things, you would have looked at me like: 'Biden, you've lost your senses.'‘
Between the lines: Osnos interviewed Biden for epic profiles in 2014 and 2020 (with rare access during COVID). Those spawned a book about Biden that was published just before he won the presidency.
Osnos, who spent 40 minutes with Biden on Jan. 17, writes that POTUS ‘betrays no doubts’ despite discouraging polls, and ‘projects a defiant belief in himself ... a conviction that borders on serenity.’
Osnos asked Biden if there was ever a time when he considered not running again.
‘No,’ he replied. ‘I'm running again because I think two things: No. 1, I'm really proud of my record, and I want to keep it going. I'm optimistic about the future. ... And, secondly, I look out there, and I say: 'O.K., we're just — most of what I've done is just kicking in now.'‘
‘For decades,’ Osnos notes, ‘there was a lightness about Joe Biden — a springy, mischievous energy that was hard not to like.’
‘For better and worse, he is a more solemn figure now. His voice is thin and clotted, and his gestures have slowed, but, in our conversation, his mind seemed unchanged. He never bungled a name or a date.’
The bottom line: Biden, who as vice president ‘took bristly pride in defying the political wisdom of younger advisers,’ once again has something to prove. He asked Osnos: ‘How many times did you and your colleagues write, 'The recession is coming next month'?’” [Axios]
Advisers push Trump to tone it down
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Top advisers are trying — with some early success — to steer former President Trump to focus more on the border and the economy, and less on old grievances and personal drama, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.
Why it matters: How disciplined Trump is could determine whether he'll be able to attract college-educated voters who don't believe the 2020 election was fraudulent — voters he'll need in November.
Zoom in: In some recent speeches, Trump has avoided his typical complaint that the 2020 election he lost was ‘stolen.’
‘We've done great things, and then we had a little interruption,’ Trump said last week at the Black Conservative Federation Gala in South Carolina, referring to Biden's tenure without the ‘rigged election’ framing.
In one instance, Trump wanted to mention a salacious claim about a rival's personal life. But Susie Wiles, one of the campaign's top two officials, persuaded him not to.
Reality check: Trump can still ramble on, making the conspiratorial — and false — claims many come to hear.
‘Donald Trump is Donald Trump. That's not going to change,’ Chris LaCivita, one of the campaign's top two officials, told AP. ‘Our job is not to remake Donald Trump.’
As senior adviser Jason Miller said in January: ‘The president's going to say what the president is going to say ... We're all along for the ride.’” [Axios]
Gaza
A Palestinian girl carries a child through the rubble of houses destroyed by Israeli bombardment in Gaza City on March 3, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Hamas movement.
AFP via Getty Images
“Talks for a ceasefire in Gaza are still plodding along as more children succumb to starvation in the war-torn region. Negotiators gathered in Cairo on Sunday for talks on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal and the release of hostages from Gaza, but Israel did not send a delegation. Hamas has said it wants a permanent end to the fighting before hostages are released. Meanwhile, calls are growing in the US for an end to the violence. Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday forcefully called for more humanitarian aid and urged Israel to do more to allow it into the enclave, saying that people are ‘starving’ in the face of ‘inhumane’ conditions. Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, told CNN Sunday that killing in the region ‘has to stop.’” [CNN]
Vice President Harris speaks yesterday in Selma, Ala., on the 59th anniversary of "Bloody Sunday." Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
Kamala Harris is hosting a Netanyahu rival, signaling wider cracks in Israel's wartime leadership
“The member of Israel’s wartime Cabinet is visiting Washington on Monday in defiance of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Read more.
Recent developments:
Benny Gantz, a centrist political rival of Netanyahu, is sitting down with several senior Biden administration officials this week. A representative from Netanyahu’s far-right Likud party said Gantz did not have approval from the prime minister for his meetings in Washington.
Harris plans to press for a temporary cease-fire deal to allow for the release of several categories of hostages held by Hamas. Israel has essentially agreed to the deal, according to a senior Biden administration official, and the White House has emphasized that the onus is on Hamas to come on board.
The meetings come as the U.S. begins a series of airdrops of aid into Gaza, just days after dozens of Palestinians were killed while trying to get food from an Israel-organized convoy. The head of a Gaza City hospital said gunfire accounted for 80% of the wounds in the aftermath of the aid-convoy bloodshed, which suggested heavy shooting by Israeli troops. Israel claimed many of the dead were trampled in a stampede and troops only fired when they felt endangered.” [AP News]
Immigration
“A controversial Texas immigration law could go into effect this week if the Supreme Court doesn’t intervene. Senate Bill 4 would allow state law enforcement authorities to arrest and detain people they suspect of entering the country illegally. A federal judge blocked the bill last week, saying it could open the door for every state to pass its own version of immigration laws, but an appeals court granted a temporary stay. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott supports the legislation, which immigration advocates warn could increase racial profiling and detentions in the state. Abbott has been highly critical of what he sees as President Biden’s inaction at the border. Last week, Abbott said Biden should use his executive authority to handle the crisis. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas responded that it is the responsibility of Congress to agree on a solution.” [CNN]
Tennessee National Guard deployment includes about 50 soldiers
“Tennessee will deploy two waves of National Guard troops to the Texas-Mexico border through the spring as Republican governors across the country back Texas in its ongoing feud with federal authorities over immigration enforcement. Tennessee officials would not comment specifically on where the state's contingent will be sent in Texas. Texas has been in a monthslong standoff with the federal government over the record-high number of unauthorized migrant crossings. The move comes as the border emerging as a defining topic of the 2024 presidential elections. Read more
•Immigrants' children in Philly are helping kids at the Texas border.” [USA Today]
Gov. Bill Lee met with Tennessee National Guard troops in Millington, Tennessee on March 2 ahead of their deployment to a Texas border operation.
Brandon Hall
SCOTUS
“The Supreme Court may hand down at least one opinion today, driving speculation that the justices are prepared to decide whether Donald Trump is eligible to appear on Colorado’s presidential ballot. The court never discloses in advance which opinions it will issue, but there is a time element here: Colorado’s primary is coming up tomorrow on Super Tuesday. The ruling may also decide the matter for other states that have similar challenges pending. Arguments about Trump’s eligibility stem from the 14th Amendment’s ‘insurrectionist clause,’ and challengers claim he disqualified himself with his actions on and around the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.” [CNN]
California's blueprint for homelessness
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
“California voters will vote tomorrow on an overhaul of the state's approach to mental health treatment and homelessness, Axios San Diego's Andrew Keatts writes.
Why it matters: The measure is Gov. Gavin Newsom's answer to a crisis that ranks among residents' biggest concerns. Its approval would create a blueprint supporters hope — and opponents fear — could be replicated elsewhere.
How it works: Proposition 1 would let the state borrow $6.4 billion to build mental health treatment beds and supportive housing for homeless residents — and allow the state to keep a larger percentage of its existing "millionaire tax," with less going directly to counties.
Reality check: The new revenue would build 4,350 homes. California has an estimated 181,000 homeless residents.” [Axios]
“China wants to change how it talks to its people.
After three decades, Beijing is canceling a briefing by the nation’s premier at the close of its most important annual political meeting.
It’s a big decision. The press conference at the National People’s Congress has become an important tradition, providing a rare chance each year for people to see a more candid, human side to the country’s No. 2.
Past premier Li Keqiang used the event to joke with reporters and poke fun at his own strong provincial accent. He once even set off a nationwide debate on poverty after complaining that two-fifths of people didn’t earn enough to rent a room in a medium-sized city.
His sudden death less than six months ago may have reminded President Xi Jinping that it no longer pays to give even his handpicked deputies an opportunity to upstage him.
Li’s passing triggered an outpouring of nostalgia for a different, more open China when the country’s economy was booming and many were feeling richer.
No matter how carefully orchestrated the question and answer session has become over the years, the decision to scrap the briefing will cast a pall over the NPC for those already worried about the opacity of policy making — particularly when there’s so much uncertainty over just how China will get to the 5% growth target expected to be announced tomorrow.
For some, this is the end of an era. The days when a senior official could directly engage with the media on everything from financial markets to minimum wages are firmly behind us.
The premier’s role has been diminished and one of the few remaining channels to communicate directly on policy eliminated.
That’s an important signal about just how Xi intends to run his government in his third term.” — Rebecca Choong Wilkins [Bloomberg]
WATCH: Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle examines the economic priorities at this year’s NPC.
“Ukrainian authorities are bracing for a Kremlin-sponsored narrative that aims to erode public trust in President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s democratic legitimacy as his five-year term comes to a close without new elections during wartime. Germany’s defense minister said Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking to divide Kyiv’s allies with a disinformation campaign, after the publication of a leaked conversation about the possible deployment of German long-range missiles in Ukraine.” [Bloomberg]
“Hard-liners tightened control of Iran’s parliament in elections marked by a record-low turnout, with all candidates requiring approval from an unelected body called the Guardian Council. The participation of just 41% of eligible voters reflected growing political apathy after a crackdown on anti-government protests in 2022 and worsening living conditions under Western sanctions.” [Bloomberg]
“Shehbaz Sharif faces an even more daunting task than when he first became Pakistan’s prime minister two years ago. He’s expected to be sworn in today, sitting atop a shaky coalition, needing to renew an International Monetary Fund loan by April and placate a powerful military that once exiled him, all after supporters of his jailed rival Imran Khan won the most seats last month.” [Bloomberg]
“Mexico’s ruling Morena party candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, kicked off her campaign for the presidency with a series of welfare proposals that build on the legacy of the popular incumbent, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Sheinbaum, who leads in polls for the June election, proposed her own aid program for women and school kids among some 100 pledges at her campaign launch in Mexico City’s main square at the weekend.” [Bloomberg]
“Jeremy Hunt must negotiate a difficult balancing act in his annual budget on Wednesday, under pressure to deliver eye-catching tax cuts to give a pre-election boost to his ailing Conservative Party, yet also hamstrung by the fragility of the UK’s public finances.” [Bloomberg]
“Swiss voters backed a plan to raise pensions, the first time in the country’s history that social benefits got an increase via plebiscite.” [Bloomberg]
The case for college
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Chart: Axios Visuals
“Yes, college is still worth it: The wage gap between recent college and high school grads has been widening for decades, and grew even more last year, Axios' Emily Peck writes from new Federal Reserve data.
Why it matters: Confidence in the value of a college education is falling, per polling by Gallup and The Wall Street Journal.
Follow the money: Lots of research, surveys and news articles evaluate the worth of a degree for recent graduates. But the value of college education accrues over a worker's lifetime.
Even those who don't graduate have higher earnings than those who don't go at all.” [Axios]
Caitlin Clark breaks Pete Maravich's all-time scoring record
“Caitlin Clark became the leading scorer in NCAA Division I basketball Sunday in Iowa's 93-83 win over Ohio State. Clark started the game just 18 points from passing Pete Maravich – but caused a celebration all the same. Fans went crazy when Clark hit two free throws with .3 seconds to play in the first half. It was a fitting moment for the homegrown superstar who said last week that this would be her last college season and she will enter the 2024 WNBA Draft. Included in the crowd was former WNBA MVP Maya Moore, Clark’s childhood idol, and Lynette Woodard, previously the best scorer in the history of women’s major-college basketball.” Read more at USA Today
Caitlin Clark reacts after she broke Pete Maravich's all-time NCAA scoring record in the Hawkeyes' 93-83 win.
Julia Hansen, Iowa City Press-Citizen
“College softball: The Oklahoma Sooners lost after a 71-game winning streak.” [New York Times]
Dune storms box office
Timothée Chalamet (left) and Austin Butler in "Dune: Part Two." Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures via AP
“Armed with the star power of Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Florence Pugh and more, "Dune: Part Two" drew $82 million in ticket sales in the U.S. and $97 million internationally.
Why it matters: It's the first major hit of 2024, and one that's sorely needed by exhibitors, AP reports.” [Axios]
Iris Apfel at home in 2011. Chester Higgins Jr./The New York Times
“A full life in full looks: Iris Apfel, who referred to herself as a ‘geriatric starlet,’ died on Friday at 102. Apfel, an interior designer, came to the fashion world late in life and went on to set trends in her 80s and 90s with her irreverent ensembles.
‘She did not have much truck with stealth wealth or quiet luxury or the old axiom that elegance is refusal,’ the Times fashion critic Vanessa Friedman writes. ‘She believed, rather, in the virtues of muchness, of giving free rein to your inner extremism and letting your fashion freak flag fly.’” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Robert M. Young’s subjects as a documentary director included civil rights sit-ins, sharks and the war in Angola. He died at 99.” [New York Times]