The Full Belmonte, 3/4/2024
Migrant cases soar 167%, to 8M!
Data: Immigration and Customs Enforcement, internal documents, obtained by Axios. Chart: Axios Visuals
“More than 8 million asylum seekers and other migrants will be living inside the U.S. in legal limbo by fall — a 167% increase in five years, according to internal government projections obtained by Axios' Stef Kight.
Why it matters: That's up from about 3 million in 2019 — a sign of how the underfunded, outdated U.S. immigration system can't keep up with new border surges.
The backlog has left millions of people living under threat of deportation.
The data show that while the backlog has exploded as President Biden has struggled to deal with the unprecedented crush of migrants from around the world, millions already were in the U.S. during the Trump administration.
By the numbers: At the end of the 2023 fiscal year, more than 6 million people were on what officials call the ‘non-detained docket.’
The government projects the total will grow to 8 million by Oct. 1, according to Homeland Security documents sent to Congress.
That includes people who have been ordered to be deported, or who don't have final decisions from U.S. officials on their asylum or other immigration cases — but who aren't being held in the limited detention space that's available.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has about 40,000 detention beds.
An estimated 2 million of the migrants in the backlog likely will be high-priority cases — mostly those who have orders to be deported to their home countries, and some with criminal records or pending criminal charges, according to the documents.
Republicans, led by former President Trump, have zeroed in on the release of migrants who have recently crossed the border as a national security danger, and have highlighted crimes committed by immigrants in the U.S.
Between the lines: The Biden administration repeatedly has asked Congress for more money to address the border — to no avail. Republicans — egged on by Trump, who wants to campaign on the issue — recently killed a bipartisan border deal months in the making.
As Republicans continue to demand more detentions and deportations, ICE is having to make plans to cut back.
Meanwhile, thousands more desperate people cross the border every day.” [Axios]
Trump's legal limbo
Table: Axios Visuals. Note: The Aug. 5 trial date in Georgia was proposed by the prosecution, while the Florida and New York dates were set by judges.
“The timelines of three of the four criminal cases against former President Trump are now up in the air, casting doubt on the likelihood their trials will even begin before November, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.
Why it matters: Trump's legal team has employed delay tactics to push legal proceedings beyond the 2024 election. If he wins the presidency before standing trial, he could escape prosecution altogether.
The one criminal case on track to start well before November — the hush money trial in New York — widely seen as the weakest of the four.” [Axios]
Big Biden bummer
“A poll by the N.Y. Times and Siena College "offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters," The Times reports.
‘So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest.’
The shares of Democratic primary voters who say Biden should be the nominee (46%) and those who say he shouldn't (45%) are roughly equal.
Among Democrats under 45, opposition is stronger.
Between the lines: ‘The historical edge Democrats have held with working-class voters of color who did not attend college continues to erode,’ per The Times.
Biden got 72% of that group in 2020 exit polls, almost 50 points over Trump. Biden has a much narrower edge in this poll — 47% to 41%.
Reality check: ‘Really? When was the last time Democrats lost women voters?’ Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg tweeted.
Michael Tyler, Biden-Harris communications director, said: ‘Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote ... Whether it's in special elections or in the presidential primaries, actual voter behavior tells us a lot more than any poll does.’” [Axios]
‘Get me a deal’
Palestinians run toward parachuted t food parcels, air-dropped from U.S. aircraft on a beach in the Gaza Strip yesterday. Screengrab: AFPTV via Getty Images
“When President Biden called the emir of Qatar and the president of Egypt on Thursday, his message was direct: Get me a deal, U.S. officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
Why it matters: Biden, under increasing pressure from progressive Democrats, desperately wants a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. He sees a deal for the hostages held by Hamas as the only way to get it while maintaining his unwavering support for Israel.
Biden wants a deal before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts March 10.
As part of the framework presented by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar in Paris on Feb. 23, Israel would release about 400 Palestinian prisoners — including 15 convicted of murdering Israelis.
In exchange, Hamas would free about 40 Israeli hostages, including women, female soldiers, men over 50 and men who have serious medical problems.
The framework included a roughly six-week pause in the fighting in Gaza — one day for every living hostage released — as well as preparation for a gradual return of Palestinian citizens to the northern part of the Strip.
U.S. and Israeli officials say Hamas' response to the proposed deal didn't include a list of hostages who are alive, or how many Palestinian prisoners the group is demanding in return.
Hamas is believed to be holding 134 people it took hostage during the terrorist attack on Israel on Oct. 7.
32 of the hostages have been confirmed dead.
Behind the scenes: In his call with the Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Biden said the U.S. is pressing Israel to agree to the deal — and urged them to push Hamas to do the same, two sources said.” [Axios]
Musk vs. moguls
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“Elon Musk, in a broadening quest to control the tech world, is feuding with a growing list of Silicon Valley rivals, Axios' Zachary Basu and Erica Pandey write.
He's now suing OpenAI — which he co-founded — and CEO Sam Altman, accusing them of prioritizing profit over "the benefit of humanity."
Why it matters: Troves of information about both Musk and OpenAI could come to light if the case proceeds to discovery, potentially damaging reputations and throwing AI companies into chaos.
Zoom in: Musk is arguing that OpenAI's partnership with Microsoft violates its founding agreement.
Microsoft, led by CEO Satya Nadella, has invested billions in OpenAI and is the only company with a license to use the tech behind GPT-4, OpenAI's blockbuster product.
The OpenAI feud pulled in even more Silicon Valley billionaires over the weekend, as they traded jabs on X.
Venture capitalist and OpenAI investor Vinod Khosla posted that Musk's lawsuit ‘feels like a bit of sour grapes.’
Musk hit back, and Marc Andreessen took his side, tweeting: ‘Vinod is lobbying to ban open source.’
Zoom out: This lawsuit is the latest in a growing list of Musk feuds with Silicon Valley rivals.
Musk vowed last week to create a competitor to Gmail in response to backlash over Google Gemini's biased image generation.
After news broke that OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Nvidia and others have invested $675 million in humanoid robot startup Figure, Musk — who's working on a robot model at Tesla — tweeted: ‘Bring it on.’” [Axios]
Globe's obesity doubles
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“More than 1 billion people now have obesity — a sign of worsening nutrition that's also raising the risk of high blood pressure, cancer and diabetes.
The global rate of obesity more than doubled among women, from 8.8% to 18.5%, and nearly tripled in men, from 4.8% to 14.0%, between 1990 and 2022, Axios' Tina Reed writes from a new study in The Lancet.” [Axios]
Education
‘The University of Florida has terminated all positions associated with diversity, equity and inclusion to comply with new state regulations.
The University of Idaho, preparing for a drop in the college-age population, plans to take over the University of Phoenix, a for-profit online school known for misleading claims and low graduation rates.” [New York Times]
“LeBron James became the first player in N.B.A. history to score 40,000 career points.” [New York Times]
1 ageless thing
Brady runs onto the field during halftime of a Patriots-Eagles game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., in September. Photo: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
“The week's most interesting story, and it's not close:
Tom Brady, at 46, beat his 40-yard dash time from the NFL scouting combine 24 years ago.
At 22, coming out of the University of Michigan, Brady ran 40 yards in 5.28 seconds. His new time is around 5.12 seconds, the Detroit Free Press notes.” [Axios]
New fish discovered
The newly discovered tailspot wrasse. Photo: Allison and Carlos Estape, courtesy of Scripps Institution of Oceanography
“Scientists recently discovered a new type of fish — not in the unexplored depths, but right under their noses in a marine preserve that's popular with scuba divers.
The Halichoeres sanchezi was discovered in an underwater field of volcanic rubble and lava boulders near the remote islands of the Revillagigedo Archipelago, Axios San Diego co-author Kate Murphy reports.
The Mexican islands are a popular destination for recreational scuba divers hoping to see sharks, manta rays, humpback whales and sea turtles.
And it's probably the only place this fish lives, researchers said. The islands' isolation and legal protections created a ‘window back in time to before intensive fishing,’ UC San Diego's Ben Frable said.” [Axios]
Palestinians walk through the destruction from the Israeli offensive in Jabaliya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip. (Mahmoud Essa/AP)
“A Hamas delegation has arrived in Cairo today for further talks on a ceasefire deal, a senior Hamas source told CNN. Negotiators from the US, Israel and Egypt are also expected to attend. The Hamas source refused to confirm any details about the militant group’s positions or demands, saying what is being reported in the media ‘is speculation and leaks.’ On Saturday, a senior Biden administration official told reporters that Israel had ‘basically accepted’ a six-week ceasefire proposal in Gaza.
The biggest inferno in Texas history is being fueled by winds and high temperatures as it continues to rage, threatening to incinerate more buildings, cattle and livelihoods across the Texas Panhandle. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue today in the Panhandle, with strengthening winds gusting to 50 mph and dry conditions combining to set the stage for rapid wildfire spread, the National Weather Service warned.
Blizzard conditions continued to slam Northern California over the weekend with damaging winds and heavy snow dumping on mountain ridges down to the valleys. Around 6.5 million people are under winter weather alerts across the Mountain West, with blizzard warnings still in effect for the Sierra Nevada.
General Motors is recalling nearly 820,000 pickup trucks over a potential safety issue involving tailgates. The automaker says that the electronic latch mechanism used to open the gate of some 2020-2024 Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra truck beds might short circuit if water gets into the tailgate. That means the gate could inadvertently open while the car is parked, leading unsecured property in the bed to fly out when unaware drivers hit the road.
People who test positive for Covid-19 no longer need to routinely stay away from others for at least five days, according to new guidelines from the CDC issued Friday. The change ends a strategy from earlier in the pandemic that experts said has been important in controlling the spread of the infection.
MONDAY
Primary season kicks into high gear this week, starting with North Dakota's Republican presidential caucuses. Former President Donald Trump will once again be facing off against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the Peace Garden State. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum — who ended his own bid for the White House in December — is backing Trump.
TUESDAY
March 5 is Super Tuesday, the day a large number of states hold their presidential primaries and caucuses. Super Tuesday is a make-or-break day for Nikki Haley. After losing financial backing from the influential network associated with billionaire Charles Koch following her loss in her home state's primary, Haley may be forced to consider suspending her campaign if Trump runs the table.
WEDNESDAY
Hawaii holds its party-run Democratic presidential caucus. The Aloha State’s Republican Party will hold its presidential caucus on March 12.
THURSDAY
President Joe Biden will deliver his highly anticipated State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress — his final such address before the 2024 presidential election in November.
FRIDAY
March 8 is the latest deadline for Congress to avoid a partial government shutdown. Lawmakers kicked the can down the road last week by passing a stopgap bill to provide additional time for full-year funding bills to be finalized and passed. The short-term measure moved the deadlines for a partial shutdown and a complete shutdown from March 1 and March 8 to March 8 and March 22, respectively.
Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel will officially step down from her position. Her departure comes amid a period of rising tensions between Donald Trump and the RNC. The former president has endorsed North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Michael Whatley to succeed McDaniel and backed his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, as co-chair. Whatley currently serves as the committee’s counsel.
Friday marks 10 years since Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared with 239 passengers and crew members aboard en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Despite extensive searches of the Indian Ocean, no crash site has been discovered, and only a few fragments of debris confirmed to be from the missing Boeing 777 were found washed ashore in eastern Africa — thousands of miles from the region where the plane vanished.” [CNN]