The Full Belmonte, 3/28/2023
Children from The Covenant School hold hands as they are taken to a reunification site after a deadly shooting on Monday.
Nashville shooting
“Police in Nashville are working to uncover a motive in the mass shooting that killed six people at a Christian elementary school on Monday. The shooter, identified as a 28-year-old former student, was shot and killed by police during the attack, leaving behind ‘drawn out’ maps of the campus detailing ‘how this was all going to take place,’ police said. Three 9-year-old children and three adults were killed in the tragedy. Two of the victims were school employees. One was the head of the school and the other a custodian, according to the school. Monday's horror was among at least 130 mass shootings so far this year -- more than this point in any previous year since at least 2013, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive.” [CNN]
We're not OK
Data: Wall Street Journal/NORC poll. Chart: Axios Visuals
“Rarely does one poll stare so deeply into the soul of a nation and tell its story.
But a new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll exposes generational and political divides that echo loudly and transformatively across our culture, politics and governance.
Why it matters: Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, the pollster on earlier editions of this survey, told The Journal that the combined toll of political division, COVID and the lowest economic confidence in decades appear to be having ‘a startling effect on our core values.’
‘Patriotism, religious faith, having children and other priorities that helped define the national character for generations are receding in importance to Americans,’ The Wall Street Journal's Aaron Zitner writes(subscription).
‘Tolerance for others, deemed very important by 80% of Americans as recently as four years ago, has fallen to 58%.’
The findings: NORC at the University of Chicago polled 1,019 adults this month by web and phone (margin of error: ±4%).
Asked to describe the state of the nation's economy, 1% (not a typo) chose ‘excellent.’
56% said a four-year college degree is ‘not worth the cost because people often graduate without specific job skills and with a large amount of debt.’
33% said they have very little or no confidence in public schools.
Look at the tectonic shifts from a Journal/NBC poll 25 years ago, in 1998:
Patriotism is very important: Dropped from 70% to 38%.
Religion is very important: Dropped from 62% to 39%.
Having children is very important: Dropped from 59% to 30%.
Community involvement is very important: Dropped from 47% to 27%.
Money is very important: Rose from 31% to 43%.
The bottom line: The poll quantifies a generational and political divide that shows a rot at the very soul of our nation.” [Axios]
Chemical spill
“Philadelphia officials are set to provide an update on the city's water safety this morning following a recent chemical spill in the Delaware River that left many residents concerned about possible contamination. City officials have said the water supply is safe to drink and use until at least 3:30 p.m. local time today, prompting many people to snag bottled water from quickly-emptying grocery store shelves. About 40 water quality tests conducted as of Monday afternoon showed no indication of contamination, a city official said. Many residents, however, have expressed frustration and confusion over officials' repeated statements that the city's water is safe, even after they initially asked residents to drink bottled water as a precaution.” [CNN]
People line up for water in Center City in Philadelphia on March 26, 2023.
Stacey Rutledge
Student loans
“President Joe Biden's student loan debt relief program faces a new threat from Senate Republicans after nearly 40 senators introduced a resolution Monday to overturn the plan. Additionally, the measure aims to end the pandemic-related pause on federal student loan payments, which has been in place since March 2020. If the resolution succeeds in both the Senate and House, Biden would likely step in and utilize his presidential veto power. But votes would force members of his own party, who have not all been in support of the student loan forgiveness program, to take a public stance. In the meantime, the program remains blocked as student loan borrowers wait in limbo until the Supreme Court issues its ruling in late June or early July.” [CNN]
New leader for pro-Biden group
Map: The White House
“The head of Building Back Together, a "dark money" group designed to highlight President Biden's accomplishments, is leaving the organization, Axios' Hans Nichols has learned.
Why it matters: The departure of executive director Danielle Melfi signals a new mission for the nonprofit organization — which accepts unlimited contributions from anonymous donors — as President Biden prepares to announce his re-election campaign.
Instead of paid media campaigns, BBT will focus more on helping progressive groups draw attention to the Biden administration's push to implement its climate, semiconductor and infrastructure programs Congress approved last year.
Mayra Macias, who has led a progressive advocacy group called the Latino Victory Project, will serve as BBT's interim executive director.
By the numbers: In 2021, BBT raised $40 million and spent about $28 million on ads, according to tax documents obtained by Politico.
The big picture: Ahead of an expected campaign announcement later this spring, Biden is embarking on a three-week roadshow today, designed to convince Americans that the trillions of dollars of projects he signed into law will produce good-paying jobs for the next generation of American workers.” [Axios]
Lethal supercell storms to hit South more often as world warms, new study says
By SETH BORENSTEIN
This May 21, 2020, photo provided by Victor Gensini shows a tornado in Moscow, Kan. A new study says warming will fuel more supercells or tornados in the United States and that those storms will move eastward from their current range. (Victor Gensini via AP)
“America will probably get more killer tornado- and hail-spawning supercells as the world warms, according to a new study that also warns the lethal storms will edge eastward to strike more frequently in the more populous Southern states, like Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.
The supercell storm that devastated Rolling Fork, Mississippi is a single event that can’t be connected to climate change. But it fits that projected and more dangerous pattern, including more nighttime strikes in a southern region with more people, poverty and vulnerable housing than where storms hit last century. And the season will start a month earlier than it used to.
The study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society predicts a nationwide 6.6% increase in supercells and a 25.8% jump in the area and time the strongest supercells twist and tear over land under a scenario of moderate levels of future warming by the end of the century. But in certain areas in the South the increase is much higher. That includes Rolling Fork, where study authors project an increase of one supercell a year by the year 2100….” Read more at AP News
Kimberly Patton surveys through the belongings at the spot of a family member's home after a tornado destroyed the property March 26, 2023, in Rolling Fork, Miss. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Gov. Roy Cooper signing legislation to expand Medicaid in North Carolina yesterday.Eamon Queeney for The New York Times
“North Carolina expanded Medicaid in a bipartisan deal, a sign that Republican opposition to Obamacare is weakening.” [New York Times]
Israel
Protesters outside Israel's parliament in Jerusalem today. Photo: AFP via Getty Images
“Embattled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday that he will delay plans to overhaul the country's judiciary amid widespread strikes and protests throughout the country. Netanyahu said he would delay votes on the remaining legislation until after the Knesset's Passover recess in April ‘to give time for a real chance for a real debate.’ But it remains unclear if that will be enough to calm the protests. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has steadily scaled up its rhetoric on the situation, saying recently it was watching with ‘concern.’ The statement, which also repeatedly urged ‘compromise’ in the judicial reform, also marked a rare moment of the US weighing in on the domestic affairs of another country -- let alone those of a close ally like Israel.” [CNN]
An Israeli protester holds the Israeli flag during a demonstration on March 27, 2023 in Tel Aviv, Israel. Amir Levy, Getty Images
Massive Strikes Rock Germany
“A massive strike hit Germany Monday, with workers demanding pay raises in the midst of high inflation.
Union bosses called the demanded increases ‘a matter of survival,’ while management described the strikes as ‘completely excessive.’
Germany’s transport network was effectively frozen for the day. Staff at airports, bus terminals, ports, and railways walked out. Flights at eight major airports were impacted. The German Airports Association estimated about 380,000 travelers would have their flights grounded as a result.
Local media dubbed it ‘mega strike.’ Two of the country’s largest unions, EVG and Verdi, teamed up. EVG represents 230,000 employees at Deutsche Bahn, as well as bus companies, while Verdi represents roughly 2.5 million in the public sector, including many working in transport.
Frank Werneke, the Verdi chairman, in an interview with German outlet Bild, said, ‘The people are not only underpaid, they are hopelessly overworked.’
EVG boss Martin Burkert told Reuters on Monday evening, ‘We expect an offer over which we can negotiate. To this day we don’t have one.’
Germany has been especially hard hit by inflation as it weans itself off of Russian energy, looking for new energy sources while Russia wages war in Ukraine.” [Foreign Policy]
“Asylum seekers try for last-minute crossing of U.S.-Canada border. After U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a deal to close a loophole that let tens of thousands of immigrants cross the border last week, a Haitian family—possibly the last to benefit—crossed the border moments before the modifications set in. The family left their luggage on the other side of the border.
Essentially, since early 2017, many migrants entered Canada via a back road between New York and Quebec. Once on Canadian soil, they could stay and seek asylum. But a new policy says that any asylum seeker who lacks U.S. or Canadian citizenship and is caught within 14 days of crossing will be sent back across.” [Foreign Policy]
“SNP picks new leader. Humza Yousaf won election to be the next leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), the ruling party of Scotland. Yousaf said he felt like the ‘luckiest man in the world’ and promised to gain independence from the United Kingdom. His priority, he said, was to ‘protect every Scot, as far as we possibly can, from the harm inflicted by the cost-of-living crisis, to recover and reform our NHS and other vital public services, to support our wellbeing economy, to improve the life chances of people right across this country.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Myanmar leaders promise to crush resistance. General Min Aung Hlaing, leader of Myanmar’s military government, promised in a rare speech to fight all who oppose the military’s rule at Myanmar’s annual military day parade. The country has been in a civil war since a military coup in 2021, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and more than a million people displaced.” [Foreign Policy]
Greenland to stay in daylight saving time forever
FILE - Small pieces of ice float in the water in Nuuk Fjord, Greenland, June 15, 2019. Like most European nations, Greenland switched over to daylight saving time on March 25, 2023, moving their clocks one hour forward. But they observed the seasonal ritual for the last time. When most of Europe and the United States fall back an hour again in the fall, Greenlanders won’t. (AP Photo/Keith Virgo, File)
“COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Residents of Greenland have switched to daylight saving time and moved their clocks one hour forward this weekend for the very last time.
Unlike most of Europe, Greenlanders will leave their clocks untouched come autumn when daylight saving time ends. While Europe and the U.S. debates whether to stick to the twice-yearly practice, Greenland - a vast Danish semi-independent territory in the Arctic - has resolved to perennially remain only three hours behind Copenhagen and most other European countries instead of four.
Greenland’s parliament, Inatsisartut, voted to stick to daylight saving time year-round on Nov. 24 last year. Officials say it will give Greenlanders another hour of daylight in the afternoons and more time to do business with Europe and farther afield….” Read more at AP News
Man suing Gwyneth Paltrow testifies he went 'flying' after ski collision
“Terry Sanderson, who is suing Gwyneth Paltrow for $300,000 over a 2016 ski crash, has a different recollection of events than the actress put forth in court on Friday. Sanderson, 76, took the stand Monday in Utah and testified against Paltrow, who he claims seriously injured him during a collision on the beginner slopes at Deer Valley Resort in Park City on Feb. 26, 2016. I’ve never been hit that hard and I’m flying," he said. ‘Last thing I remember, everything was black.’ Read more at USA Today
Gwyneth Paltrow testifies during her trial, Friday, March 24, 2023, in Park City, Utah.
Rick Bowmer, AP
Disney
“Disney is making major cuts to its workforce with layoffs set to impact about 7,000 jobs beginning this week, CEO Bob Iger said Monday. In a memo to staff obtained by CNN, Iger said the layoffs will come in waves stretching into the summer. The cuts to Disney's global workforce are part of a multibillion-dollar cost-cutting initiative aimed at streamlining the company's operations. A cut of 7,000 jobs represents about 3% of its global workforce of about 220,000 employees. ‘The difficult reality of many colleagues and friends leaving Disney is not something we take lightly,’ Iger said in the memo. The sweeping job cuts were announced by Iger last month after the company released better-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter of 2022.” [CNN]
The sale of SVB represents a milestone in regulatory efforts to clean up after two of the largest bank failures in history.
PHOTO: BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/REUTERS
First Citizens is buying large pieces of Silicon Valley Bank.
“The Raleigh, N.C.-based bank is acquiring the collapsed lender’s $56.5 billion in deposits, about $72 billion of loans at a discount of $16.5 billion and all of its branches. Approximately $90 billion of SVB’s securities will remain in receivership. First Citizens was the 30th largest U.S. bank as of Dec. 31, 2022, with $109 billion in assets, according to the Fed. Today’s deal would increase that to $219 billion. The FDIC took control of SVB on March 10, triggering a panic that also took down Signature Bank and prompted regulators to roll out emergency measures designed to calm depositors and bolster confidence in the banking system.” [Wall Street Journal]
By German Lopez and Claire Moses
Good morning. Israel’s protests succeeded by uniting some of the country’s most influential institutions.
Demonstrators in Jerusalem yesterday.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times
Deep divisions
“Much of life in Israel came to a halt yesterday: Hospitals stopped providing nonemergency care, planes were grounded at the country’s main airport, and malls and banks closed. The disruptions were part of an escalation in protests against the government’s proposed judicial overhaul, which has plunged Israel into one of its gravest political crises ever.
The interruptions to daily life were the latest sign that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had underestimated Israelis’ opposition to his government’s proposed changes to the courts. In response to the chaos, he has relented, at least in part. Netanyahu announced yesterday that he would delay the changes until later this year. ‘When there is a possibility of preventing a civil war through dialogue, I, as the prime minister, take a timeout for dialogue,’ he said.
The announcement calmed some of the protesters and unions have called off their strikes. But it remains unclear what will happen in the coming weeks — and whether Netanyahu will continue pushing a proposal that has started to fracture even his own cabinet. Israel has dealt with deep political divisions for some time — holding five elections in four years — and the fight over the judicial overhaul has shown that those divisions persist.
Over the last two days, the opposition used all of its power to threaten to shut down the economy unless its views were taken into account, while the other side threatened to use its majority in Parliament to push through their political agenda, Patrick Kingsley, The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, explained.
‘It was a very high-stakes game of chicken,’ Patrick says.
But there’s still disappointment and uncertainty on both sides. ‘The opposition fears that this overhaul may simply be reinstated in its current form at a later date,’ Patrick says. Among right-wing voters, Patrick says, there’s a feeling that their votes don’t count.
Today’s newsletter will focus on the opposition to the overhaul and why it has succeeded, for now, after weeks of protests.
Watching Netanyahu’s speech in Tel Aviv yesterday.Amit Elkayam for The New York Times
Powerful opposition
What prompted such large-scale chaos? In short, the extreme change that many Israelis feared the proposed judicial overhaul would bring. Like its American counterpart, Israel’s Supreme Court is very powerful. But with the overhaul, Israel’s Parliament could override the court’s decisions with a simple majority, giving the government sweeping power to enact its preferred policies.
Netanyahu and his allies argue that the overhaul is needed to limit the courts’ power. They believe the courts have become increasingly aggressive and have undermined voters’ choices over the past three decades. One example: The Supreme Court’s blocking of some settlements in the West Bank.
The opposition argues that the overhaul would significantly weaken one of the few checks, besides elections, on Parliament. Israelis in the opposition tend to hold a more secular, pluralistic vision for the country, and see the courts as important to preserving that view. The opposition also says that Netanyahu is pushing for the changes to protect himself because he is standing trial on corruption charges. Netanyahu denies that claim as well as the charges.
That opposition has gained momentum because it unites influential parts of Israeli society: universities, unions and the reservists who play a key role in the military. The backing of such organizations is often the difference between successful and failed protest movements, as my colleague Amanda Taub has explained. ‘Support from those institutions can be a way for protests to gain leverage over leaders, often by splitting up elite coalitions,’ Amanda said.
That kind of split is already visible in Netanyahu’s cabinet. Over the weekend, the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, spoke out against the proposed overhaul, citing opposition from members of the military. ‘I see how the source of our strength is being eroded,’ Gallant said.
Importantly, opposition from within the military goes beyond ideology. Soldiers and reservists argue that if the courts are too weak to provide a check on the military, officials may be more likely to give illegal orders and potentially expose soldiers to prosecution in international courts. ‘Those concrete concerns about self-interest may be far more difficult for the government to defuse than if the protests were just motivated by ideology and political solidarity,’ Amanda wrote.
Netanyahu fired Gallant on Sunday. The dismissal prompted the latest protests in the country, which in turn compelled Netanyahu to pause his plans.
What’s next
Netanyahu’s proposed judicial overhaul was made possible by a rightward shift in Israeli politics, as this newsletter has explained. His backtracking in the face of heavy opposition suggests that perhaps Israel’s population hasn’t moved as far to the right as he believes.
The overhaul’s delay has calmed the situation for now. But it could also lead to more political chaos: Netanyahu’s coalition holds a slim majority in Parliament, and it could collapse if his right-wing allies believe he is going back on his word. That could force another election, which would be Israel’s sixth since 2019.
At the same time, reviving the overhaul would probably revitalize the protests and potentially splinter Netanyahu’s government again. Either option could cost Netanyahu his power.” [New York Times]
“39 people killed in Mexico after fire breaks out at immigration processing center near El Paso, TexasThe fire broke out late Monday at the National Immigration Institute (INM), a facility in Ciudad Juarez near the U.S. border south of El Paso. Thirty-nine people have died and 29 injuries have been reported so far, INM confirmed in a statement posted to Twitter early Tuesday.” [USA Today]
Good morning. As Republicans prepare for a fight over the debt ceiling, they have a political problem: which government programs to cut.
U.S. Capitol in Washington.Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times
Grand Old Programs
“As congressional Republicans prepare for a budget showdown later this year with President Biden, they say that they will insist on large cuts to federal spending. So far, though, they have left out some pretty important details: what those cuts might be.
Republicans have been more willing to talk about what they won’t cut. Party leaders have promised not to touch Medicare and Social Security. Republicans generally oppose reductions in military spending and veterans’ benefits. And neither party can do anything about interest payments on the debt that the government has already accumulated. Combined, these categories make up almost two-thirds of federal government spending.
The largest remaining category involves health care spending that benefits lower- and middle-income families, including from Medicaid and Obamacare. Hard-right Republicans, like some in the Freedom Caucus, have signaled they will propose reductions to these programs. Party leaders, for their part, have said they would eye cuts to anti-poverty programs such as food stamps.
But cuts like these would have a big potential downside for Republicans: The partisan shifts of recent years mean that Republican voters now benefit from these redistributive programs even more than Democratic voters do.
As The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein recently wrote, ‘The escalating confrontation between the parties over the federal budget rests on a fundamental paradox: The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is now more likely than Democrats to represent districts filled with older and lower-income voters who rely on the social programs that the G.O.P. wants to cut.’
Almost 70 percent of House Republicans represent districts where the median income is lower than the national median, according to researchers at the University of Southern California. By contrast, about 60 percent of House Democrats represent districts more affluent than the median.
The politics of class, as Brownstein puts it, have been inverted.
Upside down
I’ve written before about the tensions that this inversion has created for Democrats. The party increasingly reflects the views of upper-income professionals who tend to be more liberal on social issues than most swing voters. Today’s left is less religious and patriotic than the country as a whole and less concerned about crime and border security. The left is more focused on differences among Americans, especially by race, gender and sexuality, than on what Americans have in common.
This shift has been happening for a long time, but it has accelerated in the past decade. ‘The new left is very conscious of identity,’ my colleague Nate Cohn wrote last week. ‘Obama-era liberals tended to emphasize the commonalities between groups and downplayed longstanding racial, religious and partisan divisions.’ (In that article, Nate make a thoughtful attempt to define “woke.”)
These developments have created challenges for the Democratic Party. It has continued to lose working-class white voters and recently lost some Latino and Asian American voters. Biden and his aides spend considerable time thinking about these problems, and he has tried to take a less elitist approach. Democrats don’t ‘pay nearly as much attention to working-class folks as we used to,’ he has said.
But the new class dynamic also creates challenges for the Republican Party. For decades, it was the party that skewed affluent. It still had to manage the differences between its higher-income voters and its evangelical voters, but Republicans were mostly comfortable pushing for lower taxes and smaller government (other than the military). Paul Ryan, the former House speaker, embodied this outlook.
Paul Ryan and Donald Trump in 2018.Erin Schaff for The New York Times
Donald Trump was able to engineer a hostile takeover of the party in 2016 partly because he recognized that many Republican voters had no interest in Ryan-style cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Trump promised to protect those programs and, unlike most Republican politicians, criticized trade deals. These positions helped him win the nomination and then the general election, as Matthew Yglesias of Substack has argued. In the 2024 Republican campaign, Trump is already using a similar strategy.
While Trump was president, however, he mostly did not govern as a populist. He acted more like a President Paul Ryan might have, cutting taxes on corporations and the affluent while trying to shrink Medicaid and repeal Obamacare. Those Trump policies weren’t popular. They contributed to the Republican Party’s huge losses in the 2018 midterms and probably hurt Trump’s re-election campaign too.
Polls show that even many Republican voters oppose cuts to government health care programs. The same message is evident in the outcome of state-level ballot initiatives: Idaho, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Utah have all voted to expand Medicaid.
The G.O.P. dilemma
The Republican Party has not yet figured out a solution to this problem. If the party were guided solely by public opinion, it might put together an agenda that was well to the right of the Democratic Party on social issues while also calling for higher taxes on the rich. ‘There is quite a bit of economically populist appetite even among Republicans for raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, ‘Bryan Bennett, who oversees polling at the Hub Project, a progressive group, told The Atlantic.
But the Republican Party retains enough of its wealthy base that it remains staunchly opposed to tax increases. Instead, Republicans say that the solution to the budget deficit involves less spending. But the specific cuts that they have talked about so far — like calls to reduce Medicaid and food stamps — don’t come close to balancing the budget. Other Republicans have talked about reducing the ‘woke bureaucracy,’ but it is not clear what that would entail.
‘The math doesn’t actually work,’ my colleague Catie Edmondson, who covers Congress, said. ‘This is such a dilemma for Republicans.’
Adding to the challenge for Kevin McCarthy, the speaker, is the slim Republican House majority. McCarthy can lose only four votes and still pass a bill without Democratic support. ‘It is very hard to envision a Republican budget that can satisfy the Freedom Caucus and still get votes from Republicans in swing districts,’ Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, told me.
What’s next: Sometime this summer or fall, the U.S. government is likely to reach its debt limit. To avoid defaulting on debt payments — and risking a financial crisis — Congress will need to raise the limit before then, and Republicans say they will insist on cuts as part of a deal.
Related: Biden and McCarthy are on a collision course.” [New York Times]
Zia Cooke of the South Carolina Gamecocks.Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
“The women’s Final Four: South Carolina beat Maryland to reach the Final Four for the third straight time, and Virginia Tech overpowered Ohio State to claim the last spot in Dallas. On Friday, South Carolina will play Iowa, led by Caitlin Clark, and Louisiana State will face Virginia Tech, which has reached the semifinals for the first time.
Early favorites: The Houston Astros open the M.L.B. season on Thursday and occupy the top spot in the year’s first power rankings.
A souring relationship: The Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson publicized his trade request minutes before the Baltimore coach John Harbaugh was set to speak at the N.F.L. owners’ meetings.”
“Lives Lived: In 1969, a photographer captured Bobbi Ercoline embracing her boyfriend at Woodstock. The moment, enshrined on the cover of the festival’s ubiquitous album, became a symbol of hippiedom. Ercoline died at 73.” [New York Times]
Twisting Oreos for science
Photo: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“A team at MIT has twisted apart over 1,000 Oreos in the name of science, attempting to solve that age-old problem: Is there any way to get the cream on both sides of the wafers?
Turns out the answer is: Not really. Oreo's filling stuck to just one wafer about 80% of the time, using both a machine and hand techniques to twist.
‘There was no combination of anything that we could do ... that changed anything in our results,’ Crystal Owens, a Ph.D. candidate in MIT’s mechanical engineering department, told The Wall Street Journal.” [Axios]