The Full Belmonte, 3/27/2022
“WARSAW — President Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ in a forceful speech Saturday wrapping up a trip to Europe meant to bolster NATO’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The president’s remark initially seemed to suggest support for regime change — something the Biden administration has taken pains to avoid — though the White House later said Biden only meant Putin should not be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region.
‘That’s not for Biden to decide,’ Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to state media. ‘The president of Russia is elected by Russians.’
Biden’s words capped a fiery speech in which he called Putin a ‘dictator,’ warning him not to encroach on NATO territory and urging Ukrainians to steel themselves for a long battle. He framed the Kremlin’s invasion as the ‘test of all time’ for democracy.
His trip came as fierce fighting continued in Ukraine. Officials in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv reported several powerful explosions on Saturday, and a large plume of smoke could be seen billowing in the air.” Read more at Washington Post
State of the War
“While Biden was traveling in Poland, two rocket strikes hit Lviv in western Ukraine, not far from the Polish border. The strikes undercut earlier signals that Russia had narrowed its ambitions.
Western officials, however, have picked up chatter among senior Russian commanders about giving up on capturing Kyiv and other key areas in Ukraine, according to two people with access to intelligence.
Ukrainian forces have mounted a counteroffensive in the Kyiv suburbs to block Russia’s route to the capital, destroying tanks and killing Russian troops.
The 22-year arc of Putin’s time in power tracks his slide from statesman to dictator.
The chaos of war could undo decades of progress against infectious diseases in Ukraine, experts warn.
What kind of weapons is Russia using? We have a guide.” Read more at New York Times
“Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) said Saturday he will resign from Congress after he was convicted Thursday on three felony counts for lying to federal investigators about illegal campaign contributions from a foreign billionaire.” Read more at Washington Post
“A recent social media post by a hotel owner in Rapid City, S.D., announcing that Native Americans would be barred from the business after a shooting in one of the hotel’s rooms has prompted swift condemnation from community leaders, a protest and a federal civil rights lawsuit.
The owner, Connie Uhre, was upset about an attack at the 132-room Grand Gateway Hotel early on March 19 in which the gunman and victim were both Native American. She also voiced more general concerns about what she described as increasing crime in the city.
‘We will no longer allow any Native American on property,’ Ms. Uhre, 76, wrote on Facebook on March 20. ‘Or in Cheers Sports Bar,’ she said, referring to the on-site lounge where karaoke takes place six days a week. ‘Natives killing Natives.’
Race relations in Rapid City have long been a powder keg, the Sioux Falls-based commentator Tom Lawrence wrote in The South Dakota Standard, and Ms. Uhre last weekend ‘lit the match.’
Ms. Uhre’s comments were widely condemned by local officials, including the mayor, tribal leaders, law enforcement officials and other community groups.
The post, Native Americans and others said in interviews, was a blatant example of racism that stuck out from the myriad subtle and systemic kinds that Indigenous people face every day.” Read more at New York Times
“Jurors in Colorado on Friday ordered the city and county of Denver to pay $14 million in damages to 12 plaintiffs after finding that police officers used excessive force against them during demonstrations over the killing of George Floyd in 2020.
The civil case in the U.S. District Court of Colorado was the first in the nation in which a lawsuit accusing the police of misconduct during the 2020 protests went to trial, according to the plaintiffs’ lawyers, who added that it could set a precedent for other pending cases across the country involving police misconduct against protesters in the George Floyd demonstrations.
The jury of eight Coloradans concluded that the city and county failed to properly train its police and that as a result, officers violated the plaintiffs’ constitutional rights under the First and Fourth Amendments.” Read more at New York Times
“COMMERCE, Ga., — When Donald Trump recruited David Perdue to run for governor of Georgia, Mr. Trump’s allies boasted that his endorsement alone would shoot Mr. Perdue ahead of the incumbent Republican governor, Brian Kemp. Georgia Republicans braced for an epic clash, fueled by the former president’s personal vendetta against Mr. Kemp, that would divide the party.
But two months out from the Republican primary election, Mr. Perdue’s campaign has been more underwhelming than epic. In an effort to boost Mr. Perdue and put his own stamp on the race, Mr. Trump came to Georgia on Saturday for a rally for Mr. Perdue and the slate of candidates the former president has endorsed. Thousands of Trump supporters turned out in the small city of Commerce, 70 miles northeast of Atlanta and about 20 miles outside of Mr. Kemp’s hometown, Athens.
Early polls have steadily shown Mr. Perdue, a former senator, trailing Mr. Kemp by about 10 percentage points. The governor has the backing of many of the state’s big donors and remains far ahead of Mr. Perdue in fund-raising. After pursuing a deeply conservative legislative agenda, Mr. Kemp has secured support from most of the top state leaders and lawmakers, even those who have, until now, aligned with Mr. Trump.
Mr. Perdue’s sputtering start may hint at a deeper flaw in Mr. Trump’s plan to punish the governor for refusing to work to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results: Mr. Trump’s grievances may now largely be his alone. While polls show many G.O.P. voters believe lies about fraud and irregularities in the 2020 election, there is little evidence that Republicans remain as fixated on the election as Mr. Trump. The challenge for Mr. Perdue, as well as for other candidates backed by Mr. Trump, is to make a case that goes beyond exacting revenge for 2020.” Read more at New York Times
A protest in Brussels of Russia’s invasion.Olivier Hoslet/EPA, via Shutterstock
“A fading peace
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could mark a troubling shift: the end of a relatively peaceful global era.
Though it has not always felt like it, the world has since the 1990s endured less war than any other period in recorded history. Wars and resulting deaths plummeted with the conclusion of the Cold War in 1991 — and the subsequent end of direct and proxy conflicts between the world’s great powers.
‘The end of the Cold War was the greatest thing to happen to peace in a long time,’ said Jeremy Shapiro, the research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But the world has since changed. After emerging from the Cold War as the lone superpower, the U.S. grew weaker, bogged down by failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Russia and China evolved into more formidable powers; they are now better positioned to challenge a world shaped by American norms and rules.
Invading Ukraine is the biggest example of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to challenge a U.S.-led order. Another is Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war. China has its own interests — in controlling Taiwan and increasing influence in East and Southeast Asia.
The strengthening alliance between Russia and China in recent years also suggests they are sketching new lines of global competition. And in response to these threats, other potential great powers, like Europe, are rebuilding their own militaries.
Peace, experts said, has not looked this fragile in decades.
How conflict receded
For much of human history, war was the norm. Between the 16th and 18th centuries, great powers battled each other most years. And in the 19th and 20th centuries, they fought in conflicts that culminated in two world wars that killed more than 100 million people and displaced tens of millions more.
But after the Cold War, the rate of new conflicts fell more than half, according to Bear Braumoeller, an international security expert at Ohio State University. The conflicts that did occur were on a smaller scale. Deaths from war plummeted. (Part of that decrease was also thanks to militaries getting better at treating wounded soldiers.)
Data from 1946 to 2020. Labeled conflicts do not account for all deaths. | Source: Our World in Data
The drop was unprecedented, William Wohlforth, an international relations expert at Dartmouth College, told me. ‘We can’t find another period with a shift in conflict trends that compares,’ he said.
Several ingredients factored into this peace. There was a lack of great power competition; no country could seriously challenge the United States. Nuclear weapons also continued to deter nations from warring against each other, given the potentially apocalyptic consequences. An increasingly integrated global economy made any war a risk to everyone’s continued growth. And peacekeeping institutions, like the U.N. and the E.U., created outlets for countries to try to settle disputes and enforce antiwar rules (although not always successfully).
Another element: Great power is no longer synonymous with an appetite for conquest. U.S. officials in the nation’s century as a superpower have viewed attempts to take over other countries as a direct route to sinking the world order they had built and led. America’s own acts of aggression — in Vietnam, Panama, Iraq and elsewhere — were aimed at upholding that order, however flawed the justifications.
Rising challengers
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Xi Jinping, China’s leader.Pool photo by Pavel Golovkin
Russia and China never liked the idea of a U.S.-led world order. For decades, both have called for a new structure in which they get a bigger, or even dominant, say over how the world works.
Russia has its own imperial ambitions in Eastern Europe, and it views NATO’s expansion toward its western doorstep as an existential threat.
China has benefited economically from the liberal order and globalization. But its leaders also want to oppress domestic dissidents, the democratic government in Taiwan, protesters in Hong Kong and predominantly Muslim Uighurs, among others, without outside interference.
These are longstanding goals for Russia and China, but they now have a greater ability to act on their beliefs. Putin has cemented his rule after more than two decades in power, and in that time he moved to modernize Russia’s military (though the stalemate in Ukraine has exposed major weaknesses). China has grown its economy to a point that it may soon rival the United States’, and it is expanding its military power and regional influence as well.
That could lead to more great power competition — potentially through a new wave of proxy wars between these countries and the West or, worse, direct conflict.
But any great shift in the world order hinges largely on what China does, as the only real rival to the U.S. Given the risks of war, China could continue to pursue its interests with economic or diplomatic levers over military force, said Stacie Goddard, an international security expert at Wellesley College.
China also has repeatedly called for respecting every nation’s sovereignty. There are good reasons to be skeptical of that pledge, including China’s interests in Taiwan and its continued support for Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. But if China means it, the war in Ukraine could end up looking less like a sign of what is to come and more like a deadly last gasp from the Cold War era.” Read more at New York Times
Reuters
An image of Foo Fighters' drummer Taylor Hawkins on a makeshift memorial outside the hotel where he was found dead in Bogota, Colombia. Photograph: Fernando Vergara/AP
“Taylor Hawkins, the Foo Fighters drummer, had 10 different substances in his body at the time of his death, Colombian officials said.
The 50-year-old was playing on the South American leg of the band’s world tour when his sudden death was announced on Saturday.
In a statement following an initial forensic examination, the Colombian attorney general’s office said a preliminary urine toxicology test indicated the presence of 10 different substances, including marijuana, antidepressants and opioids.
The statement continued: ‘The National Institute of Forensic Medicine continues to conduct the necessary medical studies to ascertain the cause of death. The attorney general’s office will continue to investigate and will duly inform the findings of forensic examinations in due time.’” Read more at The Guardian
“SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Mike Krzyzewski slowly climbed up the ladder, bowed to the adoring Duke fans and then pointed to his players to give them the credit before cutting the final string of the net.
Coach K’s farewell tour will end at his record-setting 13th Final Four.
The Blue Devils delivered their most complete performance of this NCAA Tournament run to extend the career of their Hall of Fame coach for one more weekend after beating Arkansas 78-69 on Saturday night in the West Region final.
‘To see the joy, I can’t explain it, because, you know, I’m a grandfather, I’ve lived through my daughters, I’m living through my grandchildren but now I’m living through these guys,’ Krzyzewski said on the court before cutting down the net. ‘Holy mackerel!’
A.J. Griffin scored 18 points, West Region MVP Paolo Banchero added 16 and and second-seeded Duke (32-6) frustrated fourth-seeded Arkansas (28-9) on the offensive end to get back to the Final Four for the first time since Krzyzewski won his fifth championship in 2015.” Read more at AP News
“SAN ANTONIO (AP) — Villanova coach Jay Wright has won national championships with well-balanced and fundamentally sound teams, yet even he knew staying in contention for another title was going to take a rugged and exhaustive effort.
Ugly at times, the final result was beautiful for the Wildcats, who are going to their third Final Four in the past six NCAA Tournaments.
Jermaine Samuels had 16 points and 10 rebounds as Villanova grinded out a 50-44 victory over gritty and athletic Houston team in the South Region final Saturday.” Read more at AP News
“BRIDGEPORT, Conn. (AP) — Raina Perez decided to come back for one more season and hopefully lift N.C. State to new heights. The senior guard did just that, helping the Wolfpack advance to their first regional final in 24 years.
The senior guard stole the ball at midcourt and made a go-ahead layup with 14 seconds left to send the top-seeded Wolfpack to a 66-63 comeback win over No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday.
It’s the Wolfpack’s first trip to the Elite Eight since 1998 when they reached the Final Four.
N.C. State had lost in the Sweet 16 the previous three tournaments and looked as if it was going to make it four straight until the late rally led by Perez and Kai Crutchfield, who also came back for the extra COVID year granted by the NCAA.” Read more at AP News
“WICHITA, Kansas The Louisville women's basketball team is going back to the Elite Eight for the fourth straight season.
The Cardinals, who defeated No. 4 seed Tennessee 76-64 in Saturday's Sweet 16 matchup, were led by a stellar outing from Emily Engstler (20 points and 10 rebounds). Hailey Van Lith had 23 points and a career-high six assists and Kianna Smith had 12 points despite sitting the entire second quarter.
Louisville had a 15-point lead in the first half, but it dwindled away as Tennessee's offense woke up in the second half. The Vols had shot 66.7% from deep in the third quarter and cut Louisville's lead to just two points with 9:36 left in the fourth quarter.
Unlike the loss to Miami and NC State, Louisville held onto its fourth-quarter lead and topped Tennessee on the back of its press.” Read more at USA Today