The Full Belmonte, 3/17/2023
First Republic’s stock has been pummeled for days, but gained in afternoon trading Thursday.
PHOTO: BRYAN BANDUCCI FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Eleven banks deposited $30 billion in First Republic Bank.
“In a joint statement, the heads of the Treasury, Fed, FDIC and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said the rescue “demonstrates the resilience of the banking system.” First Republic is contending with a falling stock price and fleeing depositors after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed last week. U.S. stocks closed higher after the rescue plan news. Meanwhile, a day after Credit Suisse shares sank to a new low as investor confidence evaporated, they jumped after the bank said it would borrow more than $50 billion from the Swiss National Bank, but analysts remained wary about the lender’s prospects.” [Wall Street Journal]
Stormy Daniels: Donald Trump legal team ‘pushes for end to hush money case’
Lawyers understood to have argued that payments would have been made regardless of presidential run and did not use campaign funds
Thu 16 Mar 2023 01.00 EDT
Stormy Daniels: Donald Trump legal team ‘pushes for end to hush money case’
Lawyers understood to have argued that payments would have been made regardless of presidential run and did not use campaign funds
“Donald Trump’s legal team recently urged the Manhattan district attorney’s office not to indict the former president over his role in paying hush money to a porn star, arguing that the payments would have been made irrespective of his 2016 presidential candidacy, sources familiar with the matter have said.
The lawyer who represented the Trump team at the meeting with the district attorney’s office, Susan Necheles, also argued that campaign funds had not been used for the payments to the porn star, known as Stormy Daniels, and were therefore not a violation of campaign finance laws.
The arguments presented to the district attorney’s office mark the most formal defense that the Trump team have raised to date, as they attempt to settle on a strategy to avoid conviction in the event that the former president is charged with a misdemeanour or felony over the payments.
Trump may face an uphill struggle with those arguments, given the fact that having ‘mixed motives’ to protect himself personally and to protect his campaign could leave him liable, and the timing of the payments suggests there was an urgency to pay the money before the end of the 2016 campaign.
The effort to convince the district attorney, Alvin Bragg, not to bring charges may also prove futile amid increasing signals that an indictment is likely.
On Wednesday, Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen testified for around two hours before the grand jury and told the Guardian that he provided the most complete account of the hush money scheme. He added that every juror asked a question, which suggested a particularly engaged grand jury.
That is a typical sign for prosecutors as they weigh potential charges, legal experts say, because it could indicate the grand jury found him to be a compelling witness – and a jury at an eventual trial might be similarly convinced.
Cohen is the crucial witness because he made the $130,000 payment to Daniels in late October 2016, buying her silence about the story of an affair with Trump. Trump later reimbursed him as president, through monthly $35,000 checks from his personal checking account, and Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 to federal charges involving the hush money.
The district attorney’s case is likely to focus on how Trump and the Trump Organization handled the reimbursements. According to court filings in the federal case, the Trump Organization falsely recorded the payments as legal expenses, referencing a legal retainer with Cohen that did not exist.
Falsifying business records can be a misdemeanour in New York. But it can rise to a felony if prosecutors can show beyond a reasonable doubt that a defendant’s ‘intent to defraud’ included an effort to commit or conceal a second crime.
What is unclear in this investigation is the potential second crime, though Bragg could tie the falsification to a violation of state election law, arguing the payment to Daniels was an illicit contribution to the Trump campaign, given the money stifled Daniels and helped his campaign.
Also on Wednesday, Daniels herself met with the district attorney’s office at their request, her lawyer said in a tweet. Daniels responded to questions, he said, “and has agreed to make herself available as a witness, or for further inquiry if needed”.
The district attorney’s office has questioned at least seven other people before the grand jury and Cohen was expected to be one of the final witnesses to make an appearance. Trump was also recently invited to testify, but his legal team is understood to have declined the offer.
The recent moves by the district attorney suggest criminal charges against Trump could be imminent. It would be rare for a prosecutor to question essentially every relevant witness in a high-profile white-collar criminal case and ultimately decline to seek an indictment.” [The Guardian]
Classified documents
“Dozens of staff members at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence have been subpoenaed to testify on the former president's handling of classified documents. The special counsel in the classified documents probe has sought testimony from a range of people close to Trump -- from his own attorneys who represent him in the matter to staffers who work on the grounds of his Florida estate, including a housekeeper and restaurant servers, sources said. This comes as the Justice Department has spent much of the past year investigating the potential mishandling of national security records and possible obstruction. FBI agents recovered more than 100 classified documents during a search of Mar-a-Lago last summer. Since then, Trump's legal team has turned over additional classified material.” [CNN]
Covid-19
“Advisers to the FDA voted 16-1 on Thursday for full approval of Paxlovid, stating that the drug's benefits outweigh any risks for treatment of mild to moderate Covid-19 in high-risk adults. More than 8 million people in the US have received Paxlovid since it became available under emergency use authorization in 2021. Before Paxlovid is fully approved, the FDA -- which typically follows the recommendations of its advisory committee -- must conduct its own review. That is expected to wrap up in May. Separately, questions remain about how the pandemic may have affected maternal mortality in the US. Experts say the US' maternal mortality crisis was compounded by Covid-19, which led to a ‘dramatic’ increase in deaths.” [CNN]
Why US maternal deaths rose in 2021
Jessica Rinaldi/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
“The US maternal mortality rate surged 40 percent in 2021, according to a CDC report released Thursday.” [Vox] [NPR / Selena Simmons-Duffin and Carmel Wroth]
“At least 1,205 Americans died during pregnancy or in the six weeks after giving birth that year, the most recent data that's available. That’s a rate of 32.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, up from 23.8 percent in 2020.” [Vox] [CNN / Jacqueline Howard]
“Experts blame Covid-19 for the increase, as the disease exacerbates existing health conditions and increases the risk of serious complications or death for pregnant people.” [Vox] [Washington Post / Akilah Johnson]
“Rates increased for all ethnicities; however, Black Americans saw the worst rate of all at almost 70 deaths per 100,000 births, indicating structural racism, bias, and disparities in health care access are also factors.” [Vox] [USA Today / Nada Hassanein]
“CDC officials say maternal deaths are declining after peaking in 2021, but some experts suggest the crisis could worsen as the US restricts abortion care.” [Vox] [The New Republic / Tori Otten]
Workers face murder charges in death of man at Virginia mental health hospital
“Three employees of a mental health hospital in Virginia were charged with murder Thursday, joining seven sheriff's deputies who have also been charged in the death of a man who died in handcuffs and leg irons while being subdued. Irvo Otieno died March 6 while being held down at the Central State Hospital in suburban Petersburg, Virginia. Sheriffs claim Otieno became violent while being admitted to the hospital and was restrained by seven Henrico County Sheriff's deputies who brought him there. ‘They tortured him to death,’ Otieno's mother, Caroline Ouko, said Thursday. ‘They treated him like a dog … worse than a dog.’ Read more at USA Today
Caroline Ouko, mother of Irvo Otieno, holds a portrait of her son at the Dinwiddie Courthouse in Dinwiddie, Virginia, on Thursday, March 16, 2023.
Daniel Sangjib Min, AP
Russia disinformation looks to US far right to weaken Ukraine support
The Kremlin is deploying new tactics by drawing on favorite themes and conspiracy theories of rightwing Republicans
Peter Stone in Washington
“As Russia’s ruthless war against Ukraine has faced major setbacks since it began a year ago, the Kremlin has deployed new disinformation themes and tactics to weaken US support for Kyiv with help from conservative media stars and some Republicans in Congress, according to new studies and experts.
Moscow’s disinformation messages have included widely debunked conspiracy theories about US bioweapon labs in Ukraine, and pet themes on the American right that portray the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, as an ally in backing traditional values, religion and family in the fight against ‘woke’ ideas.
Further, new studies from thinktanks that track disinformation have noted that alternative social media platforms such as Parler, Rumble, Gab and Odysee have increasingly been used to spread Russian falsehoods since Facebook and Twitter have imposed more curbs on Moscow’s propaganda.
Other pro-Russian messages focused on the economic costs of the war for the US have been echoed by Republicans in the powerful far-right House Freedom Caucus such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, Scott Perry and Paul Gosar, who to varying degrees have questioned giving Ukraine more military aid and demanded tougher oversight.
Since Russia launched its invasion last February, the Fox News host Tucker Carlson and Trump ally – turned influential far-right podcaster – Steve Bannon have promoted some of the most baseless claims that help bolster the Kremlin’s aggression….” Read more at The Guardian
China’s Xi to Meet Putin in Moscow Next Week
Visit is set to highlight China and Russia’s closer ties amid Ukraine war
“Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to visit Moscow next week for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the latest marker of the deep ties between Beijing and Moscow as the war in Ukraine continues into its second year.
During the visit, which will take place March 20-22, the two leaders will discuss “topical issues of further development of the comprehensive partnership relations and strategic cooperation between Russia and China,” the Kremlin said Friday. Several bilateral documents will be signed during the visit, it said.
Messrs. Xi and Putin will discuss the expansion of international cooperation between the two countries, the Kremlin said.
Mr. Xi’s visit was arranged in response to an invitation from Mr. Putin, according to a one-sentence statement issued by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman. In a routine briefing, a ministry spokesman described Mr. Xi’s visit as a trip of friendship, cooperation and peace that will deepen mutual trust between China and Russia.
As the Ukraine conflict has increased Russia’s international isolation, Beijing has provided diplomatic support to Moscow and an economic lifeline amid Western sanctions. China has scooped up Russian oil and gas, and sold microchips and other advanced technologies that can have military uses.
The planned visit would be Mr. Xi’s first international trip this year and showcase his close personal relationship with Mr. Putin—a key driver of China-Russia relations. The two men have met 39 times since 2013, the year that Mr. Xi took office as China’s largely ceremonial president, months after he became Communist Party chief.
People familiar with Chinese foreign policy have said Mr. Xi is likely to step up overseas travel this year, in part to repair relations strained by geopolitical tensions and his Covid-induced hiatus from trips, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. Mr. Xi secured this month a third term as China’s head of state, a role he has used to front an increasingly assertive diplomacy and pursue what he sees as his country’s rightful place as a great power.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing last year.PHOTO: ALEXEI DRUZHININ/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Mr. Xi’s Russia visit comes amid frayed relations between China and the U.S., which has been increasing pressure on Beijing over its stance on Ukraine even as tensions intensified over Washington’s recent shootdown of what it called a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon. American officials have said that China was considering providing arms to Russia, and warned Beijing against doing so. China, for its part, has criticized the U.S. for exacerbating the conflict by supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Beijing has sought to hold the middle ground on the war, while casting itself as a responsible global actor. It has called for peace, issuing in February a 12-point position paper outlining its views on how to end the conflict. But Chinese officials have also declined to criticize Russia’s invasion, instead describing the war as the ‘Ukraine crisis’ and portraying the U.S. as the chief instigator of the conflict.
China boosted its self-styled image as a neutral mediator and calming influence in international affairs this month, when Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore relations in a deal brokered by Beijing.
Mr. Xi also plans to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a meeting that is expected to take place virtually, reflecting Beijing’s effort to play a more active role in mediating an end to the war in Ukraine, the Journal has reported….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Macron Government Bypasses France’s National Assembly to Pass Pension Overhaul
President’s maneuver to raise retirement age heightens tensions with opponents
Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, foreground, addressed French lawmakers on Thursday. PHOTO: PASCAL ROSSIGNOL/REUTERS
“PARIS—French President Emmanuel Macron’s government bypassed Parliament and invoked special constitutional powers on Thursday to raise the country’s retirement age, a step that places him at odds with France’s legislative branch and millions of protesters.
By requiring workers to stay on the job until they are 64 years old, rather than 62, Mr. Macron is rolling back an entitlement that lies at the heart of France’s social model. Long and cushy retirements are weighing on national finances while Mr. Macron wants to boost military spending amid the war in Ukraine.
Mr. Macron huddled with lieutenants inside the Élysée Palace on Thursday moments before the National Assembly was due to vote on the government’s pension-overhaul proposal. With parliamentary support teetering, Mr. Macron decided to use Article 49 of the French Constitution, a contentious provision that allows governments to enact legislation without approval from lawmakers.
The move rescued legislation that lies at the heart of Mr. Macron’s pro-business agenda. But it also handed fresh ammunition to unions and political parties on the far left and far right that have mobilized mass demonstrations for months and cast Mr. Macron as an out-of-touch authoritarian.
Now Mr. Macron is facing threats from parties on the far right and far left to hold a vote of no-confidence that, if successful, would force his government to resign and kill the pension overhaul. That effort faces an uphill climb as it is opposed by many lawmakers from the conservative Les Republicains party, which holds the balance of power in the National Assembly.
The French leader, who vowed after his reelection last year to govern as a consensus-builder, found himself thrust back into the role of technocrat, imposing market-friendly directives on a restive population.
Thousands of protesters streamed into the Place de la Concorde near the National Assembly on Thursday after the move, clashing with police and setting scaffolding on fire.
Union leaders vowed to continue the demonstrations and strikes that have hobbled the country. Public-sector workers have walked off the job in droves, canceling classes and stalling public transport. Trash has been piling up in the streets of Paris, as trash collectors have refused to remove garbage until Mr. Macron relents.
‘This will reinvigorate the protest movement,’ said Philippe Martinez, head of the far-left CGT union.
Protesters hit the streets in Lille, France, on Thursday.PHOTO: SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Inside the National Assembly, scores of lawmakers shouted down Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne as she invoked Article 49, drowning out her remarks with rowdy renditions of the French national anthem.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, later called on Mr. Macron to ditch his prime minister, saying it would amount to an “extra slap in the face to the French people” if Ms. Borne remained in office. National Rally and the NUPES—the left-leaning coalition of French socialists, communists and greens—said they plan to retaliate with the no-confidence motions.
A spokesman for Mr. Macron’s office declined to comment on the standing of his prime minister or the planned no-confidence motions. Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt said in September that if a no-confidence vote succeeded, Mr. Macron would dissolve the National Assembly….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Russian jet clips U.S. drone
Photo: Defense Department via AP
“The Pentagon released declassified footage that it says shows a Russian jet conducting "an unsafe and unprofessional intercept" with a U.S. drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday, Axios' Ivana Saric reports.
The 42-second video shows a Russian Su-27 jet approaching the MQ-9 Reaper drone and releasing fuel as it neared the U.S. aircraft.
A jet is seen approaching the drone and colliding with it before the feed cuts out. The footage appears to show damage to the drone's propeller.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley said the remains likely broke apart and sank. Measures were taken to prevent loss of intelligence:
‘There's probably not much to recover, frankly.’” [Axios]
“Poland said it would send four MiG-29 jet fighters to Ukraine in coming days, making it the first Western nation to supply warplanes to Kyiv, which is preparing a counteroffensive against Russia’s invading forces.
The move puts Poland once again at the center of European policy-making on Ukraine, following Warsaw’s successful efforts earlier this year to cobble together a coalition of countries willing to send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said Poland would reach into its own reserves of the Soviet-built aircraft, which are flown regularly by Ukrainian pilots. He said Poland’s own small fleet had been received from former East German stocks in the 1990s and were currently being serviced and prepared for the handover….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“Turkey is set to approve Finland’s NATO entry bid today, a step toward transforming Europe’s security landscape further as Moscow’s war in Ukraine rages to the east.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinisto in Ankara to green-light the Nordic country’s application to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
That would leave Hungary as the last hold out to an accession which would enable the alliance to start securing the area around the Baltic Sea in defense of its Baltic members, often seen as potential targets of Russian aggression.
But Turkey isn’t set to also approve Sweden’s NATO entry. If Finland enters alone, that could slow momentum for Sweden’s bid and complicate the alliance’s planning further down the road.
Erdogan has criticized Sweden’s stance toward Kurdish militants, which Turkey sees as terrorists. His tougher approach toward Sweden may help to garner support from conservative and nationalist voters as he faces elections in May.
Still, including Finland would double the length of NATO’s border with Russia, which now comprises just 6% of Russia’s land perimeter. It would also mean NATO could improve surveillance of Russia’s western flank with the help of Finland’s well-trained military.
By approving Finland’s entry into the alliance after months of negotiations, Erdogan is once again showing his ability to shape events far beyond Turkey’s borders. — Sylvia Westall [Bloomberg]
Erdogan at the NATO summit in Madrid in June 2022. Photographer: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg
“Buying time | Thailand is heading for elections in May after Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha issued a decree to dissolve parliament. The 60 days between the dissolution and the vote will give the former coup leader time to campaign and recruit members to run for his new party as he seeks to extend his military-backed rule despite widespread unpopularity.” [Bloomberg]
Microsoft injects AI into Word
Image: Microsoft
“Microsoft debuted Copilot — new AI features for Office — to handle everything from drafting emails to summarizing meetings to turning Word documents into PowerPoint presentations, chief tech correspondent Ina Fried reports in Axios Login.
Access remains highly limited, with only 20 companies currently able to use the Office app copilots.
Microsoft said it plans to expand access in the coming months — but didn't say how much the AI features will cost.
How it works: Microsoft has added Copilot to Word, Excel, Outlook, PowerPoint and Teams, among other products.
Microsoft also announced Business Chat, which works from within Bing search, Microsoft Teams and on the web to let employees use AI to search across a range of corporate data.
The system is designed to require human approval before taking actions, such as sending an email.
Google announced earlier this week it is building AI into its Google Docs apps, now known as Workspace.” [Axios]
Bracket-busters
Furman guard Mike Bothwell, right, gets emotional after beating Virginia, 68-67, in yesterday's first round in Orlando. Photo: Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP
“Most March Madness brackets were busted before sundown on Day 1, AP reports:
From No. 13 seed Furman beating fourth-seeded Virginia, 68-67 — to No. 15 Princeton defeating second-seeded Arizona, 59-55 — most NCAA Tournament brackets were busted Thursday before the sun went down.
The NCAA's March Madness Twitter feed said early today that only 787 brackets — out of millions — remain perfect:
‘Princeton STUNS Arizona and just like that, only 0.12% of brackets remain perfect,’ an earlier tweet said.
Blake Peters of the Princeton Tigers celebrates a three-pointer on the way to beating the Arizona Wildcats, 59-55, during yesterday's first round in Sacramento. Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
In ESPN's Tournament Challenge bracket game, only 658 perfect brackets remain. More than 20 million got at least one of the 16 games wrong.
Only 6.6% picked Princeton to beat Arizona. So the Wildcats' defeat did tremendous damage to many brackets. (Go deeper: Arizona suffers epic upset against Princeton, by Jeremy Duda of Axios Phoenix.)
Arizona was a favorite at CBS Sports, picked on 96.9% of brackets to win its opener ... 84.9% to make the Sweet 16 ... 55.2% to go to the Elite Eight ... 21.5% to reach the Final Four ... and 5% to win it all.
President Biden was among those who picked Arizona to go all the way. See Biden's men's and women's (Villanova as champs) brackets.” [Axios]
Young people were asked to carry boxes holding artifacts to a mass gravesite at Wounded Knee, S.D.Tara Rose Weston for The New York Times
Debate over sacred items
“Colleges and museums across the U.S. are facing pressure to return stolen Native American cultural items. But what happens after the objects arereturned?
Tribes are confronting complicated questions about how to handle repatriationin ways that honor the past and facilitate healing for the living. Some members believe the objects should be given to descendants; others say they should be buried, or placed in the tribes’ own museums.” [New York Times]