The Full Belmonte, 3/16/2023
Ukraine
“The US military released newly declassified video today showing the Russian downing of a US drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday. While Russia's defense ministry denied its aircraft came into contact with the drone, the video shows a Russian fighter jet dumping fuel as it intercepts the US drone. Russia said it will try to retrieve the wreckage of the downed drone and has reportedly sent its forces to the site of the crash. The US said earlier it was taking measures to ensure the drone won't fall into the wrong hands but admitted it may never be recovered. Following the incident, Russia said relations between Moscow and Washington are now at their ‘lowest point.’” [CNN]
Two Americas Index: Ukraine divide
Data: IPSOS and Axios research. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals
“Four in five Republicans want the U.S. to remain the world's leading power — but fewer than half support giving Ukraine weapons and financial support to try to save itself from Russia, Margaret Talev writes from a new wave of the Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index.
Why it matters: These conflicting findings come amid a diplomatic crisis after Russia forced down a U.S. drone above the Black Sea — and a GOP identity crisis shaping the 2024 presidential race.
State of play: Former President Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Tucker Carlson argue that protecting Ukraine isn't a vital U.S. interest.
Many other GOP leaders, as well as President Biden and European allies, say helping Ukraine is vital to protecting democracy.
By the numbers: Just 42% of Republicans polled (1,018 adults; margin of error: ±3.3 percentage points) back U.S. support for Ukraine against Russia — compared with 79% of Democrats and 60% of independents.
But a huge majority of Republicans (88%) — plus a bare majority of Democrats (52%) — oppose a reduction in overall military spending.
Between the lines: Support for arming Ukraine is noticeably lower among people whose primary news source is Fox News or other conservative media (43%) than among people who mainly watch or read network news, major national papers or their local news (66%).” [Axios]
Access to abortion pills hangs in the balance
“A ruling could come ‘as soon as possible’ in a court case that could force a major abortion pill off the market nationwide, a federal judge in Texas said on Wednesday. Attorneys for anti-abortion group Alliance Defending Freedom asked U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk to issue an immediate order that would revoke mifepristone's FDA approval, citing the drug's expedited approval in 2000. Attorneys representing the FDA countered and highlighted the long history of mifepristone as a safe and effective drug. Granting the injunction, they said, would undermine the agency's authority and the regulatory process. The ruling could bar healthcare providers from prescribing mifepristone even in states where abortion is legal. Read more at USA Today
•Who is Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk and why is the mifepristone case in his court?
•A man sued Texas women he claims aided his ex-wife obtain abortion medication.
•Utah abortion clinic operations have been banned by a new state law.
•21 South Carolina Republicans support an anti-abortion bill that evokes the death penalty.
•Activist convicted for helping domestic violence victim obtain abortion pills in landmark Polish case. [USA Today]
Members of the media and general public line up outside of the Mary Lou Robinson United States Courthouse ahead of the public hearing on the lawsuit against abortion medication mifepristone on March 15, 2023.
Michael Cuviello, Amarillo Globe-News
“Stormy Daniels met today with prosecutors investigating hush money paid to her on behalf of Donald Trump. Michael Cohen, a former Trump attorney who orchestrated the payment, gave a second day of testimony before a New York grand jury looking into the matter. Go deeper.” [Vox]
“The National Audubon Society voted to keep its association with 19th-century naturalist John James Audubon, who owned enslaved people. More from The Washington Post.” [Vox]
“Former L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti won a Senate vote today to become President Biden’s ambassador to India, winning the support of seven Republicans. Garcetti's nomination had been stalled over questions about how he handled allegations of harassment by his staff. Go deeper.” [Vox]
Plane safety
“US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on Wednesday called on participants at an aviation summit to help find the ‘root causes’ of the growing number of safety incidents at airports nationwide. ‘We are particularly concerned because we have seen an uptick in serious close calls,’ Buttigieg said, referring to a series of near collisions on runways across the US. The summit comes after the FAA said it was investigating another near-accident between commercial airliners. The most recent close call was earlier this month at Reagan National Airport near Washington, DC -- the seventh since the start of this year. ‘We're not going to wait for something still worse to happen to act now,’ Buttigieg told CNN, adding that the efforts should result in ‘making sure we can save lives at airports around the country.’” [CNN]
Michigan is about to overturn its right-to-work law.
“The details: The state Senate approved the move earlier this week. The governor plans to sign the bill into law after the House approves final language.
What are right-to-work laws? They let people in union jobs opt out of membership and paying dues, which helped drive the dramatic decline in union membership over the past few decades.
Why this matters: Michigan would be one of the first states do this, making it a historic win for organized labor.” [Washington Post]
Storm ends water restrictions for some Californians
“California’s 11th atmospheric river this winter has flooded roadways, caused landslides and toppled trees to the southern part of the state. It has also brought drought-busting rainfall that meant the end of water restrictions for nearly 7 million people. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California’s decision brought relief amid the state’s historic drought. As parts of the Northeast and California have started to move on from the heavy snow and rain that hit the regions this week, the Plains, Midwest, and South are bracing for dangerous winter weather on Thursday. Read Thursday's winter weather forecast.
•California is inches away from a 30-year snowfall record as more of the state eclipses the 50-feet mark.” [USA Today]
Pamela Cerruti walks through floodwaters in Pajaro, California, on Tuesday, March 14, 2023.
Brontë Wittpenn, San Francisco Chronicle via AP
‘Rust’ Prosecutor Steps Down After Baldwin Challenges Appointment
Andrea Reeb, who was working with the Santa Fe district attorney, is also a New Mexico legislator. Alec Baldwin’s lawyers had argued that her dual roles violated the State Constitution.
By Julia Jacobs
“The special prosecutor named to the ‘Rust’ case stepped down on Tuesday after lawyers for Alec Baldwin, who is being charged with involuntary manslaughter in the killing of a cinematographer on the film set, argued that her appointment as a prosecutor violated the New Mexico Constitution because she also serves as a state lawmaker.
It was the second recent setback for the prosecution. Last month prosecutors downgraded the charges Baldwin faced in the killing of the cinematographer, Halyna Hutchins, after his lawyers argued that the Santa Fe County district attorney had erred by initially charging him under a law that was not passed until months after the shooting.
The special prosecutor, Andrea Reeb, was appointed last year by District Attorney Mary Carmack-Altwies, who had asked state officials for additional funding to hire employees to prosecute the case. At the time, Ms. Reeb had been campaigning for a seat in the state’s House of Representatives as the Republican candidate; she won the election months later and continued in the position of special prosecutor….” Read more at New York Times
Japan, South Korea renew ties at historic Tokyo summit
“A North Korean missile launch and encounters between Japanese and Chinese vessels in disputed waters hours before a historic summit between Japan and South Korea highlighted what's at stake for the two countries. In the bilateral meeting, Japan and South Korea agreed to resume regular visits between their leaders and took steps to resolve a trade dispute, a sign that the two countries are rebuilding their nations’ security and economic ties as they try to overcome a century of difficult history.” [USA Today]
Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea's president, fourth left, and Fumio Kishida, Japan's prime minister, right, attend a summit meeting at the prime minister's official residence on March 16, 2023 in Tokyo, Japan.
Pool, Getty Images
“Ukraine invites DeSantis. After Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, an expected 2024 presidential candidate, appeared to downplay Russia’s war in Ukraine by referring to it as a ‘territorial dispute’ that did not constitute a ‘vital national interest’ for the United States, Ukraine invited him for a visit.
‘We are sure that as a former military officer deployed to a combat zone, Governor Ron DeSantis knows the difference between a ‘dispute’ and war,’ said Oleg Nikolenko, spokesperson for the Ukrainian foreign ministry. ‘We invite him to visit Ukraine to get a deeper understanding of Russia’s full-scale invasion and the threats it poses to US interests.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Mexico to investigate allegations of rights abuses. Lawmakers in Mexico are launching a commission to investigate allegations that the military abused human rights, including with the use of spyware. The commission is to be made up of members of the country’s upper and lower legislative houses, and will request a report regarding allegations that the military used Pegasus, Israeli software, to spy on a human rights activist and journalists.
The activist, Raymundo Ramos, told the Guardian, ‘It’s a violation of my privacy, of my human rights. It obviously puts me at risk, it puts my family at risk, my collaborators, the victims.’ Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has, since coming into office, increased the military’s power, despite campaigning on the promise to get the military off the street.” [Foreign Policy]
“UAE accused of arbitrarily detaining Afghans. Human Rights Watch says that the United Arab Emirates is arbitrarily detaining at least 2,400 Afghan asylum seekers. According to HRW, the adults and children were evacuated from Afghanistan in August 2021, and are being held in a facility in ‘cramped, miserable conditions.’ Over 10,000 asylum seekers have been resettled from the UAE to elsewhere. The UAE said that the 2,400 were not being kept in poor conditions and that the resettlement process was in motion.” [Foreign Policy]
“Chinese doctor who exposed SARS died. Jian Yanyong, a former military surgeon and the man who exposed the Chinese coverup of the SARS epidemic in 2003, died of pneumonia in Beijing. He won acclaim for the lives he saved. He spoke out, too, against the Chinese government’s refusal to acknowledge that the 1989 crackdown on Tiananmen Square was deadly and wrong, and subsequently was detained, though he continued to speak out on the subject. He was 91.” [Foreign Policy]
Shares of Swiss lender Credit Suisse rebound
“Credit Suisse’s shares have soared after it announced a move to shore up its finances by borrowing up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank. The borrowing has caused a massive swing Thursday after Credit Suisse's shares plunged the day before when its biggest shareholder refused to put any more money into the Swiss lender.
Bigger picture: European banks are getting dragged into expanding fears about the banking system following the collapse of U.S. banks.
•Senate Republicans blame regulators for failing to spot problems at Silicon Valley Bank before its collapse last week, as a slide in stocks underscored investor fears that other banks could be vulnerable in the aftermath of SVB.
•President Joe Biden is walking the line between taking aggressive enough measures to contain the damage while still reassuring investors and savers that the rest of the banking system is safe.
•Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank executives gave thousands to Democrats and Republicans with the most influence over their industry.
Keep reading: Is my money safe in the bank right now?” [USA Today]
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 15, 2023 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago, Getty Images
TikTok
“The Biden administration has threatened to ban TikTok from the US unless the app's Chinese owners agree to spin off their share of the social media platform. TikTok has declined to discuss specifics on the matter, but did not dispute recent reports of the divestiture request. ‘If protecting national security is the objective, divestment doesn't solve the problem,’ TikTok spokesperson Maureen Shanahan said in a statement. The talks with TikTok have stretched on without resolution, prompting criticism of the Biden administration by some US lawmakers who have pushed to ban the app through legislation. US officials have raised fears that the Chinese government could pressure TikTok or its Chinese parent ByteDance into handing over the personal information of TikTok's US users, which might then benefit Chinese intelligence activities or influence campaigns.” [CNN]
Fresh seaweed in South Korea.Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
Seaweed is becoming a plastic substitute and a form of cattle feed, helping the fight against climate change.” [New York Times]
March Madness first round tips off
All 68 teams selected in this year's men's NCAA basketball tournament want to make it Houston. But before reaching the Final Four and having an opportunity to win a national title, teams must first navigate their regional schedules set up by the selection committee. The first round kicks off Thursday and it won't be an easy path for any of the teams as March Madness brings the potential for upsets along the way. Read more at USA Today
•Wednesday night recap: Mississippi State women win First Four game over Illinois." [USA Today]
The Nevada Wolf Pack was bested by the Arizona State Sun Devils Wednesday 98-73. The Sun Devils will play No. 6 TCU on Friday.
Rick Osentoski, USA TODAY Sports
Perfect-bracket odds: 1 in 9.2 quintillion
Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
“Every year, millions of us try to fill out a perfect March Madness bracket. And every year, we fail miserably, Axios Sports editor Kendall Baker writes.
By the numbers: The odds of going 63 for 63 are approximately 1 in 9.2 quintillion, according to the NCAA.
Those odds improve to a slightly more ‘reasonable’ 1 in 120.2 billion if you ‘know a little something about basketball.’
Zoom in: The odds of getting struck by lightning in your lifetime are 1 in 15,300, according to the National Weather Service.
Get your brackets ready: The first round of the men's tournament starts today at 12:15 p.m. ET (Maryland vs. West Virginia, CBS).
The women's first round starts tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. ET.” [Axios]
March 16, 2023
Good morning. March Madness, a sporting event that even nonfans follow, starts today. We have a preview.
Caitlin Clark taking a shot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images
Three weeks, 126 games
“For many Americans, the next few days are among the most entertaining of the year. They will be filled with dozens of college basketball games, featuring major surprises and thrilling finishes. When a team loses, its season is over.
The main portion of the men’s March Madness starts today, and the women’s tournament follows tomorrow. Both will continue for almost three weeks. They are among the few sporting events that capture the attention of nonfans, thanks to college loyalties and the ubiquity of brackets.
Today’s newsletter offers a preview, with help from our colleagues at The Times and The Athletic.
If I can offer one personal tip, try to find time to watch the Iowa women’s team. Its star, Caitlin Clark, a West Des Moines native, may be the country’s most entertaining player (as this Washington Post profile explains). Her fans include LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Clark is known for hitting ‘logo threes,’ shots from so far away that she is standing near the half-court logo.
Who are the men’s favorites?
No team looks dominant. Oddsmakers like Houston, an athletic crew with a terrifying defense. Alabama — the No. 1 overall seed — and Kansas aren’t far behind. Purdue, with 7-foot-4 Canadian star Zach Edey, is intriguing. The Wall Street Journal calls U.C.L.A. the most underappreciated potential winner.
Who are the women’s favorites?
The women’s tournament does have a heavy favorite: South Carolina, the defending champion, which hasn’t lost a game this season. Its star is Aliyah Boston, the likely No. 1 pick in this year’s W.N.B.A. draft. Longtime powerhouses UConn and Stanford are also in the mix, as are Maryland, Indiana, Utah — and Iowa, which won the recent tournament in the Big Ten, the strongest conference.
Dylan Buell/Getty Images
Can I get bracket advice?
Don’t worry about a few losses. Surprising as it may sound, there has never been a confirmed perfect bracket in decades of March Madness. With 63 games in each bracket, there are 9.2 quintillion possible outcomes, which means that the millions of people who fill out a bracket still cover only a tiny share of the scenarios.
Don’t pick only No. 1 seeds. ‘Fans tend to rate No. 1 seeds or well-known teams as more likely to win the tournament than experts do,’ Josh Katz and Alice Fang of The Times explain. Lower-seeded men’s teams that have a chance to go far, according to the experts, include San Diego State, Creighton, Tennessee and Providence. (This table lets you compare public picks with expert analysis.)
The Athletic’s Seth Davis picked both No. 12 seed Charleston and No. 14 seed U.C. Santa Barbara (the mighty Gauchos!) to make the Sweet 16 on the men’s side. A statistical analysis from The Athletic gives No. 13 seed Furman almost a 40 percent chance to beat No. 4 seed Virginia.
Typically, the women’s bracket has fewer upsets than the men’s bracket. In the past five years, 19 of 20 Final Four berths went to No. 1 and 2 seeds, with one berth going to a No. 3 seed.
Your pool size matters. The more people in your pool, the more risks you should take. In a smaller group, more conservative choices are smart. This basic bit of game theory may be the simplest way to improve your chances.
Or just have fun. Call it the Diane Chambers strategy, after the “Cheers” character who won the bar’s football pool by taking into account uniform colors, symphony orchestras and other factors. In March Madness, you could make your picks based on mascots: Cats have won a lot, humans not so much. I know a Southerner with a penchant for picking whichever team has the lower latitude.
Any feel-good teams?
Virginia Tech has become a top women’s team behind Elizabeth Kitley. Head coach Kenny Brooks recruited Kitley partly by winning over her sister, Raven, who has become an advocate for autism awareness.
It’s bizarre to describe Duke as a feel-good story, given its status as the most hated team in men’s basketball, but this year, it may be true. The Blue Devils had a turbulent start under new head coach Jon Scheyer, who succeeded the legendary Mike Krzyzewski, but they are now playing very well. Duke is a dangerous No. 5 seed.
Still, we realize most fans can’t root for Duke, so you could also consider Gonzaga and its bearded star, Drew Timme. ‘We have come to Drew Timme for sentimentality and melancholy, hoping to strum his heartstrings as he prepares for his last March ride,’ Dana O’Neil writes in The Athletic.
Who will be Cinderella?
Nobody knows. The best part about Cinderellas — like St. Peter’s, the pride of Jersey City, last year — is that they’re unexpected. In the women’s bracket, maybe it will be Princeton or Florida Gulf Coast, which was founded in 1991 and already has more March Madness upsets than most universities.
On the men’s side, Howard, the alma mater of Vice President Kamala Harris and Chadwick Boseman, is making its first tournament appearance since 1992. Here’s a guide to top players on lesser-known teams, like Kent State and Oral Roberts.
How about some history?
‘Dream On,’ a three-part ESPN documentary, explains how the women’s game got so big, by telling the story of the 1996 Olympic team. The Athletic’s Richard Deitsch called it the best sports documentary he saw last year. It features a few major figures in this year’s March Madness, including Dawn Staley, who now coaches South Carolina.
Join our bracket
We’ve made groups on ESPN’s Tournament Challenge for readers of The Morning to compete with each other. Here are links for the men’s and women’s tournaments. Submit your men’s bracket by noon Eastern today and your women’s bracket by noon Eastern tomorrow. We’ll mail a Morning coffee mug to one winner from each bracket.” [New York Times]
Rodgers plans to play for Jets in 2023, awaits Packers’ move
“Aaron Rodgers said Wednesday he intends to play for the New York Jets in 2023 after 18 seasons in Green Bay and the four-time NFL MVP quarterback is waiting for the Packers to trade him.
The 39-year-old Rodgers, speaking during an appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show” on YouTube and Sirius XM, said he believes the Packers want to move on and make 2020 first-round draft pick Jordan Love their starting quarterback.” [AP News]
America's favorite dog breed is...
Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images
...the Frenchie!
“The American Kennel Club announced that, after a record 31-year reign, the Labrador retriever has been eclipsed as the most prevalent purebred dog in the U.S. — by the French bulldog.
The breed has had a dizzying rise: The Frenchie wasn’t even a top-75 breed a quarter-century ago, AP notes.” [Axios]
Da Vinci's mom had been enslaved
Historian Carlo Vecce says in his new novel (right) that this page from the Italian state archives documents the liberation of Caterina, mother of Leonardo da Vinci. Photo: Carlo Vecce via AP. Cover via Amazon
“An Italian scholar and novelist is providing new fodder for an old debate about the identity of Leonardo da Vinci's mother:
He's offering a recently unearthed document as evidence that she arrived on the Italian peninsula after being enslaved in the Caucasus region of Central Asia, AP reports.
Carlo Vecce, an Italian literature professor at the University of Naples L'Orientale, reveals his theory in a new novel, "Il Sorriso di Caterina" — ‘Caterina's Smile.’ He based his claim on a document, from the State Archives in Florence, that frees a girl named Caterina.
Leonardo's father notarized the record six months after the birth in 1452 of the Renaissance genius, who went on to paint the ‘Mona Lisa.’
Vecce said he put his research in a novel, instead of a scholarly text, to share his theory with a wider public.
Opposing view: Martin Kemp, an Oxford art history professor emeritus, co-wrote a book that identified Leonardo's mother as Caterina di Meo Lippi, a 15-year-old orphan.
Kemp says he continues to favor the theory that the girl who gave birth to the genius was a ‘rural mother.’
A New York Times story about Vecce's claim points out that Walter Isaacson opens Chapter 1 of his 2017 masterpiece, "Leonardo da Vinci":
‘Leonardo da Vinci had the good luck to be born out of wedlock. Otherwise, he would have been expected to become a notary, like the firstborn legitimate sons in his family stretching back at least five generations.’” [Axios]