The Full Belmonte, 3/11/2024
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, shown here in February.
Gaza
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will push ahead with a military offensive in Rafah despite President Joe Biden's warning that doing so would be a ‘red line.’ Around 1.5 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering in the southern Gaza city and the vast majority are experiencing catastrophic levels of hunger. The United Nations aid chief has also warned that a ground invasion into Rafah could lead to ‘a slaughter.’ Netanyahu is still standing firm on sending his military into the region, though he did not provide specifics on a timeline. The Biden administration is not anticipating that Israeli forces will imminently expand their military operations into Rafah, as the holy month of Ramadan begins today for most Muslims.” [CNN]
Presidential race
“President Biden and former President Donald Trump kicked off the rematch of their 2020 contest in Georgia with competing Saturday rallies in the key swing state. The two candidates used their appearances ahead of Tuesday's primaries to call out electoral opponents and mobilize voters. Speaking in Atlanta, Biden slammed Trump over "who he keeps company with" before describing him as an existential threat to the republic. In the northwest Georgia city of Rome, Trump — now the presumptive GOP nominee after former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley exited the race last week — conjured an apocalyptic vision of a nation under siege from invading migrants and economic blight. Analysts say Georgia will be a closely watched battleground after Biden won the state by less than 12,000 votes four years ago.” [CNN]
Biden's big plans
President Biden campaigns Saturday at Pullman Yards in Atlanta, wearing a button saying: "Regulate Guns NOT Women." Photo: Brynn Anderson/AP
“President Biden's budget, out later today, will propose tax breaks for families and push for tax increases for the wealthiest Americans.
Why it matters: After a State of the Union that calmed Democrats' fears about his age, Biden will try to keep up the momentum by pushing policies that differ sharply from Republicans', Axios' Hans Nichols reports.
Zoom in: At noon, Biden will send Congress a budget for fiscal year 2025 that fills out details of the populist economic agenda he's been previewing for months.
Under Biden's plan, parents would get an increased child tax credit, cutting taxes by an average of $2,600 for 39 million low- and middle-income families.
Biden wants to strengthen the Earned Income Tax Credit for low-paid workers who aren't raising a child in their home — cutting taxes by an average of $800 per year for 19 million working individuals or couples.
He wants to enshrine some Affordable Care Act protections set to expire next year.
Biden is calling on Congress to apply his $2,000 cap on drug costs and $35 insulin to everyone, not just people on Medicare.
Corporate taxes would jump. Billionaires would be charged a minimum tax of 25%.
Zoom out: Biden's campaign will blanket the airwaves with a $30 million ad buy — including a spot in which Biden says: ‘Look, I am not a young guy. That's no secret. But here's the deal: I understand how to get things done for the American people.’
Biden will hit three swing states this week, with campaign events in New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Reality check: Like most presidential budgets, Biden's stands little chance of becoming law. But it helps him define what he'd do in a second term.” [Axios]
Katie Britt used decades-old example of rapes in Mexico as an attack on Biden's border policy
“The Republican senator who gave the party’s response to Joe Biden’s State of the Union address used a harrowing account of a young woman’s sexual abuse to attack his border policies, but the rapes did not happen in the U.S. or during the Biden administration. Read more.
Recent developments:
Britt has made immigration one of her top issues in her first years in the Senate, and Republicans have seized on a surge of immigrants entering the country during Biden’s term to attack the president.
The victim has previously spoken publicly about the abuse happening in her home country of Mexico from 2004 to 2008 — not in the United States, and not during the Biden administration. Yet Britt used the account to chastise Biden’s actions on the border.
Asked by Fox News Sunday if she had meant to give the impression that the trafficking and rape in question happened during the Biden administration, Britt said ‘No.’ She said she had recounted the victim’s story to ‘bring some light to’ sex trafficking by cartels.” [AP News]
Peter Navarro ordered to prison on March 19
“Former Trump White House aide Peter Navarro has been ordered to report to a Miami prison on March 19 to begin serving a four month sentence for defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee.
Navarro, who is urging a federal appeals court to stay the sentence while he attempts to overturn his conviction, faces the prospect of becoming the first top adviser to Donald Trump to serve jail time for an offense related to the effort to subvert the 2020 election.”
Read the latest at POLITICO
Donald Trump was criticized for mocking President Biden’s stutter.
“The details: Trump ridiculed Biden at a Saturday campaign rally in Georgia. It was the latest insult Trump has hurled at his election rival, and it drew outrage from disability advocates.
In related news: Sen. Katie Boyd Britt (R-Ala.) defended using a sex-trafficking story from 20 years ago to attack Biden in her State of the Union rebuttal. The Post fact-checked it here.”
Read this story at Washington Post
The Pentagon said the U.S. isn’t hiding crashed alien spacecraft.
“What to know: There’s no evidence that aliens have visited Earth, the Defense Department said in a report released Friday. It reviewed U.S. investigations into UFOs from 1945 to now.
So why have there been so many sightings? People mistake ‘ordinary objects and phenomena’ for alien craft, investigators found. You can read the full report here.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Oscars
“The 96th Academy Awards delivered both pomp and politics during Sunday night's ceremony. Christopher Nolan's nuclear thriller "Oppenheimer" dominated the night, sweeping several major awards including Oscars for best picture and best director. Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. scored statues for best actor and best supporting actor, respectively, for their work in the film. Meanwhile, Emma Stone won best actress for her starring role in "Poor Things," which earned three additional awards. Box office powerhouse "Barbie" made its presence known with Ryan Gosling's all-out performance of ‘I'm Just Ken,’ along with an Oscar win for best original song. Many stars in attendance used their platforms to call for global peace, while others wore red pins to symbolize their support for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war.”
Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images
Red states push for public-school chaplains
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Conservative states are pushing to allow chaplains in public schools as a way to address the persistent shortage of counselors.
Why it matters: The youth mental health crisis and an uptick in school shootings have plagued the education system. But the idea of putting religious figures on school grounds has drawn criticism from civil rights groups and some faith groups, Axios' Natalie Daher reports.
Catch up quick: Since Texas introduced its blueprint last year, allowing schools to use safety funds to hire chaplains who do not have the same licensing as counselors, similar bills have popped up in more than a dozen states including Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, Utah and Kansas.
In some states' bills, parental consent isn't required, nor is the level of training, expertise and licensing typically required of school counselors.
State of play: Florida's legislature on Thursday passed a bill that would allow unlicensed chaplains to volunteer at public schools. It will become law in July unless Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) vetoes it, which isn't expected.” [Axios]
Journal reporter nears year in prison
Cover illustration: Kevin Sprouls for TIME
“March 29 will mark one year since Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was detained by Russia's security service and charged with espionage.
His family, his colleagues at the Journal and U.S. officials are working constantly to secure his release. He has only seen his mother twice in that time, TIME's Charlotte Alter writes in this week's cover story.
Gershkovich, 32, has been a political prisoner in Moscow's Lefortovo prison for nearly a year, the first American journalist to be accused of espionage in Russia since the Cold War," Alter writes.
‘Gershkovich is not a spy. He has never worked for the U.S. government. ... Instead Gershkovich is trapped in limbo. So are his parents. Forty years after they fled Soviet Russia, their only son has become a political pawn in a new Cold War, a human bargaining chip for Vladimir Putin as relations between the two countries cratered with the invasion of Ukraine.’
‘We walked in and noticed a huge smile,’ Gershkovich's mother, Ella Milman, told TIME about seeing him last year in a cage in court.
‘We went and stood next to him, and immediately, Evan was already talking and joking. ... We were laughing. ... Russians don't expect laughter in a court. Crying — that's what they expect. But we were laughing.’” [Axios]
Dutch Air Force F-16 fighters in 2018. Horacio Villalobos/Corbis, via Getty Images
“Ukraine could deploy F-16 warplanes as soon as July. Despite NATO promises, delivering the jets and training pilots has been difficult.” [New York Times]
Pope Francis
Pope Francis waves during the Angelus noon at the Vatican on Sunday. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)
“Pope Francis attracted heavy criticism over the weekend for saying Ukraine should have the ‘courage of the white flag’ and negotiate to end the war with Russia. His comments released in an interview on Saturday brought a swift response from Kyiv, which has seen tens of thousands killed and is seeking to recapture territory seized by Russia. "Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in response. The director of the Holy See Press Office later clarified the pope's comments, saying ‘the Pope picked up the image of the white flag, proposed by the interviewer, to indicate a cessation of hostilities, a truce reached with the courage of negotiation,’ — not surrender as some may have interpreted.” [CNN]
Princess of Wales apologizes for editing UK Mother’s Day photograph
Details in a picture taken by the Prince William have raised scrutiny. Credit: Prince of Wales
“Catherine, Princess of Wales has apologized for ‘any confusion’ over an edited official photograph that sparked controversy after a number of international news agencies recalled the image over concerns it had been manipulated.
The photograph, released Sunday to mark Mother’s Day in the UK, was the first official picture of Kate since she underwent abdominal surgery in January.
But hours after it was released by Kensington Palace, four major photo agencies issued ‘kill notices,’ expressing concerns it had been edited.”
Read More at Washington Post
“Five months into Israel’s war on Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden have gone from coordinating policy in nearly daily private chats to hurling accusations at one another in public as the alliance crucial to both comes under intense strain.
‘He is hurting Israel more than helping Israel,’ Biden said in some of his harshest criticism of the Israeli leader, days after suggesting the two of them need to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting.
Netanyahu hit back, saying the president is wrong and insisted the majority of Israelis support the military campaign.
The tension stems from the number of casualties and risk of starvation and illness in Gaza caused by the Israeli operation, producing devastation and global demands for a cease-fire. Children have died of hunger; their parents are eating leaves and animal feed.
Biden’s calls for restraint in Gaza come at a time when he’s facing fierce criticism from members of his own Democratic Party in an election year for his military backing of Israel following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks.
Netanyahu’s war cabinet unity is also fraying over the influence of his far-right political partners. And as reservists return to civilian life, anti-government demonstrations demanding early elections are growing.
Biden had hoped for a six-week cease-fire by this week as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins, a time marked by heightened tensions with Israel. But talks with Hamas, considered terrorists by the US and European Union, faltered over the Islamist group’s demands for a complete, not temporary, end to the fighting.
Netanyahu insists that, pause or no pause, Israel will eventually carry out an attack on the southern city of Rafah, where it believes Hamas leaders, thousands of its troops and the 100 remaining Israeli hostages are located.
Such a move would threaten the million civilians sheltering there, Biden said, calling it a red line.
Netanyahu said he too has a red line — a repeat of Oct. 7. “— Ethan Bronner [Bloomberg]
A Palestinian woman walks through the rubble of destroyed buildings in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, on Friday. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg
“China’s legislature voted to tighten the Communist Party’s grip on the cabinet. Delegates to the annual National People’s Congress today approved the changes to the State Council Organic Law, underscoring President Xi Jinping’s drive to give the party control over all the main levers of government.” [Bloomberg]
“Another vote, another lurch to the right in Europe. Portugal became the latest nation to experience the trend, as the Chega party quadrupled its seats in parliament in an early election. Chega, which translates as “Enough” and is led by 41-year-old Andre Ventura, a former television football commentator, may become kingmaker to the first placed center-right, since together they command an outright majority of seats.” [Bloomberg]
Ventura at an election night event yesterday in Lisbon. Photographer: Andreas Dias Nobre/AFP/Getty Images
“The Philippines is counting on the US and its allies to play a key role in its plans to explore energy resources in the disputed South China Sea, Manila’s envoy to Washington, Jose Manuel Romualdez, said in an interview. The Philippines is exploring several options in its quest to tap the resource-rich South China Sea, waters that China claims almost in its entirety.” [Bloomberg]
“The French government will present a bill this year that will allow adults stricken with incurable diseases to take their own lives, President Emmanuel Macron said.” [Bloomberg]
“Polish President Andrzej Duda will propose that NATO member states raise the minimum level of defense spending to 3% of economic output when he and Prime Minister Donald Tusk meet with Biden tomorrow.” [Bloomberg]
American personnel airlifted out of Haiti
“U.S. military personnel airlifted some Americans out of the country's embassy in Haiti as the island nation spirals into violence. U.S. Southern Command said in a statement to USA TODAY Sunday that no Haitians were evacuated on the aircraft used to remove Port-au-Prince embassy personnel. It was not immediately clear how many non-essential employees were evacuated overnight or how many were brought into the embassy. Haiti has recently seen mass prison escapes and gunfire at its main airport, central bank and a national soccer stadium. Gangs in the country have led a series of coordinated attacks in an effort to overthrow authorities.” Read more at USA Today
Good morning. We’re covering the fourth anniversary of the Covid pandemic —
The Paramount Theater in Seattle on March 13, 2020. Andrew Burton for The New York Times
March 11, 2020
“Four years ago today, society began to shut down.
Shortly after noon Eastern on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared Covid — or ‘the coronavirus,’ then the more popular term — to be a global pandemic. Stocks plummeted in the afternoon. In the span of a single hour that night, President Donald Trump delivered an Oval Office address about Covid, Tom Hanks posted on Instagram that he had the virus and the N.B.A. announced it had canceled the rest of its season.
It was a Wednesday, and thousands of schools would shut by the end of the week. Workplaces closed, too. People washed their hands frequently and touched elbows instead of shaking hands (although the C.D.C. continued to discourage widespread mask wearing for several more weeks).
The worst pandemic in a century had begun.
Today, on the unofficial fourth anniversary, I’ll update you on where things stand.
The true toll
Covid’s confirmed death toll — more than seven million people worldwide — is horrific on its own, and the true toll is much worse. The Economist magazine keeps a running estimate of excess deaths, defined as the number of deaths above what was expected from pre-Covid trends. The global total is approaching 30 million.
This number includes both confirmed Covid deaths and undiagnosed ones, which have been common in poorer countries. It includes deaths caused by pandemic disruptions, such as missed doctor appointments that might have prevented other diseases. The isolation of the pandemic also caused a surge of social ills in the U.S., including increases in deaths from alcohol, drugs, vehicle crashes and murders.
Eliana Marcela Rendón cries as her grandmother, Carmen Evelia Toro, died. Victor J. Blue for The New York Times
Globally, Covid ranks among the worst killers since 1900. AIDS, for example, is estimated to have killed about 40 million people, but over a half century rather than only four years. The 1918 flu killed somewhere between 20 million and 50 million people.
Among high-income countries, the U.S. has had one of the highest Covid tolls. The excess-death rate here, as a study by Jennifer Nuzzo and Jorge Ledesma of Brown University notes, has been much higher than in Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Japan, South Korea or Australia.
In addition to deaths from the virus, long Covid — which scientists still don’t understand — has afflicted many people.
Red Covid
The U.S. has fared so poorly for multiple reasons. Our medical system is scattered and uniquely expensive. Covid tests were hard to find here. And the U.S. failed to protect many residents of nursing homes, who were vulnerable because of the extreme age skew of Covid’s effects.
The biggest problem for the past three years, however, has involved vaccines.
Initially, many lower-income Americans, as well as Black and Latino Americans, couldn’t easily find vaccines. The Biden administration largely solved these access gaps in 2021. But a new problem then emerged: Many Americans, especially political conservatives, were skeptical of the vaccines despite overwhelming evidence of their effectiveness.
To this day, more than 30 percent of self-identified Republicans have not received a Covid vaccine shot, compared with less than 10 percent of Democrats. You can see the tragic effects of vaccine skepticism in this chart, by my colleague Ashley Wu, which compares the death rates in red and blue counties:
Sources: C.D.C. Wonder; Edison Research | Data excludes Alaska. | By The New York Times
The chart tells two important stories. First, note that before vaccines were available, the cumulative death toll was similar in red and blue America. Although blue America wore masks more often, closed schools for longer and stayed home more, those measures turned out to be less successful than many liberals believed.
Why? Masks do work. But mask mandates tend to make little difference over extended periods. People simply won’t wear masks all the time in public for months on end. Remember the absurdity of restaurant diners wearing masks while walking to their table — and then taking them off to eat?
While many liberals exaggerated the value of pandemic restrictions, they were right about the vaccines. After vaccines became available, a huge partisan gap in Covid deaths opened. Even today, when most Americans have had the virus and have some natural immunity as a result, unvaccinated people are at much more risk.
Consider that about 95 percent of recent Covid-related hospitalizations in the U.S. have occurred among people who had not received an updated vaccine. This chart, based on data from Washington State, helps show the protective power of vaccines, especially for the elderly:
Source: Washington State Department of Health | By The New York Times
Because so many Republicans remain unvaccinated, the partisan gap in Covid’s toll has continued to widen over the past year:
Sources: C.D.C. Wonder; Edison Research | Data excludes Alaska. | By The New York Times
The indirect costs
For many young Americans, Covid’s biggest toll has come from the indirect costs.
Human beings are social creatures, and the pandemic’s disruption and isolation created problems from which we still have not recovered. Some of the ills I mentioned above — such as vehicle deaths and murders — have fallen from their Covid highs but remain above their prepandemic levels.
Among the biggest costs has been learning loss. Students have begun to recover some of the pandemic losses from long school closures but have a long way to go in most states:
Source: COVID-19 School Data Hub | Data for California, Oregon and Michigan are from 2019, 2022 and 2023. | By The New York Times
Four years ago, our world changed. As a society, we are not close to fully recovered.
Our advice: If you’re older and haven’t recently gotten a vaccine shot, I hope you’ll consider getting one. And here’s a Times guide to treating Covid if you get it. It remains a serious illness today, akin to a more severe version of the flu.
Related: In the last four years, scientists have unraveled some of the biggest mysteries about Covid. Read how it spreads and what’s behind the strange symptoms.” [New York Times]
SPORTS
“N.F.L. deals: Former Seahawks and Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson plans to sign with the Steelers, and Baker Mayfield agreed to a three-year, $100 million contract extension to remain with the Buccaneers.” [New York Times]
“Women’s college basketball: South Carolina won the S.E.C. tournament championship over L.S.U. The game had a brawl in the fourth quarter.” [New York Times]
Christopher Nolan Amir Hamja/The New York Times
“And the award goes to: Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” took home seven Oscars at last night’s awards, including best picture. Nolan won best director for the movie and Cillian Murphy was named best actor for his performance as the title character.
The best actress award went to Emma Stone for “Poor Things.” Lily Gladstone of “Killers of the Flower Moon” was considered a strong contender for the prize. ‘Lily, I share this with you,’ Stone said onstage.
(“Barbie” won one award — best original song — of the eight it was nominated for.)
See the full list of winners.” [New York Times]
More on the Oscars
Taking in the Kenergy. Amir Hamja/The New York Times
“Ryan Gosling took the stage in a sparkly pink suit to perform “I’m Just Ken,” the nominated song from “Barbie.”” [New York Times]
“The Ukrainian director of “20 Days in Mariupol” won for best documentary and used his speech to protest the war.” [New York Times]
“The Oscars honored Aleksei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, during an in memoriam segment.” [New York Times]
“The host Jimmy Kimmel kept it safe and John Cena presented the award for best costume design seemingly in the nude. Read more about the night.”
“Take a look at the best (and the not-so-best) red carpet outfits.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Paolo Taviani, who with his brother Vittorio made some of Italy’s most acclaimed films of the last half century, mixed neorealism with a lyrical, almost magical sense of storytelling. He died at 92.” [New York Times]