The Full Belmonte, 3/11/2022
“Major cities in Ukraine were attacked by Russian forces today as evacuations continue in several parts of the country. More than 100,000 people have been evacuated in the past two days as the threat of Russian bomb strikes remains an ongoing concern for Ukrainians. Russia has been using its neighbor Belarus as a springboard for many of its air operations in Ukraine, but the Russian army appears to be facing difficulties on the ground, ‘particularly in the logistical field and in the field of intelligence,’ a French military spokesman said. In the US, patience is running thin on Capitol Hill, with Republicans – and even some Democrats – challenging the Biden administration to go further to help Ukraine.” Read more at CNN
“LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia widened its military offensive in Ukraine on Friday, striking near airports in the west of the country for the first time, as observers and satellite photos indicated that its troops, long stalled in a convoy outside the capital Kyiv, were maneuvering in an attempt to encircle the city.
The U.S. and its allies prepared to step up their efforts to isolate and sanction Russia by revoking its most favored trading status. But with the invasion now in its third week, the new moves on the ground pointed to Russia forces trying to regroup, bombarding new cities as they tightened their 10-day-old siege on the key Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, where tens of thousands were struggling to find food.
The new airstrikes in western Ukraine were likely a message from Russia that no area was safe. Western and Ukrainian officials have said the Russian forces have struggled in the face of heavier-than-expected resistance and supply and morale problems. So far, they have made the most advances on cities in the south and east while stalling in the north and around Kyiv.” Read more at AP News
“Sanctions have effectively grounded most of Aeroflot’s international flights. The European Union, which last month closed off airspace to Russian airlines, added Aeroflot’s chief executive to its list of sanctioned individuals. Companies that lease jetliners to the Russian flag carrier are trying to get their planes back. Meanwhile, Apple, McDonald’s, PepsiCo, Levi Strauss, Philip Morris and other major brands are rethinking doing business in Russia. And the British government extended fresh sanctions on some Russian oligarchs, including Roman Abramovich, the billionaire owner of the British soccer club Chelsea FC, who had earlier said he would sell the team but is now blocked from doing so.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“President Joe Biden will announce Friday the U.S. will join the European Union and G7 allies in calling to revoke Russia's permanent normal trade relations status, which would allow new tariffs on Russian imports , according to a source familiar with the decision. The move, which requires congressional action, comes as a group of bipartisan lawmakers has pressured the president to take more aggressive action to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The source said Biden looks forward to working with Congress on the legislation, which would put Moscow's trade relationship with the U.S. in the same category as North Korea and Cuba. A diplomatic confrontation is also expected in the U.N. Security Council on Friday . Russia requested the meeting to discuss its claims of ‘the military biological activities of the U.S. on the territory of Ukraine.’ The Biden administration has forcefully denied that assertion, saying Moscow could be laying the groundwork for its own attack.” Read more at USA Today
A Ukrainian serviceman photographs a damaged church yesterday, after shelling hit a residential district in Mariupol, Ukraine. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
“The White House is sounding the alarm over a new Russian propaganda campaign that officials fear is a pretext for an appalling new phase of the war:
The use of biological or chemical weapons, Axios' Zachary Basu reports.
Why it matters: Vladimir Putin has a history of deploying illegal nerve agents against enemies, including opposition leader Alexei Navalny and former double agent Sergei Skripal. In Syria, Russia helped Bashar al-Assad cover up the use of chemical weapons against his own people.
What's happening: Kremlin propagandists have been frenetically spreading baseless claims that the Pentagon is funding dangerous bioweapons labs in Ukraine.
Chinese diplomats and state-controlled media have joined in on the conspiracy theories, raising fears about a level of coordination between the two powers not seen during the conflict thus far.
Data: Institute for the Study of War. Map: Jared Whalen/Axios
Reality check: The U.S. and Ukraine have vigorously denied the presence of any U.S.-backed bioweapons program, saying the only labs the U.S. supports in Ukraine are standard research facilities that focus on ‘diagnostics, therapeutics, treatment, prevention and vaccines.’
The Biden administration has issued statements calling the Russian claims ‘preposterous’ and ‘total nonsense,’ and urging the world to ‘be on the lookout’ for Russia to use chemical weapons itself or attempt a ‘false flag’ operation in Ukraine.
‘Allegedly, we are preparing a chemical attack,’ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a new video address. ‘This makes me really worried because we've been repeatedly convinced: if you want to know Russia's plans, look at what Russia accuses others of.’
Between the lines: The U.S. has repeatedly sought to debunk Russia's narratives about Ukraine by declassifying intelligence about Putin's plans ahead of time, a novel approach that undermines his element of surprise.” Read more at Axios
“Vice President Kamala Harris and Romania's President Klaus Iohannis will meet Friday in the nation's capital Bucharest to discuss growing concerns about the influx of displaced people fleeing Ukraine due to Russia's invasion. It's a problem that Biden administration officials and European leaders warn will likely get more complicated in the days and weeks ahead. Harris' talks with Iohannis come after she spent Thursday in Poland, which has already welcomed 1.5 million Ukrainians since the invasion began. While in Poland, Harris condemned Russia's airstrikes on a maternity hospital in Ukraine as ‘atrocities of unimaginable proportions’ and urged an investigation into the attacks. She also underscored the United States’ commitment to ‘defend every inch of NATO territory.’ The trip came amid a controversy after the Pentagon declined Poland's surprise proposal to provide Soviet-built MiG-29 fighter jets for the United States to give to Ukraine.” Read more at USA Today
Harris underscored the United States’ commitment to "defend every inch of NATO territory."USA TODAY
“Vladimir Putin has given the green light for up to 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East to be deployed alongside Russian-backed rebels fighting in Ukraine, doubling down on an invasion that the west says has been losing momentum.
The move, just over two weeks after Putin ordered the invasion, allows Russia to deploy battle-hardened mercenaries from conflicts such as Syria without risking additional Russian military casualties.
At a meeting of Russia’s security council, the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who were ready to fight alongside Russian-backed forces in the breakaway Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.” Read more at The Guardian
The outbreak of war is threatening higher inflation for longer.
PHOTO: HANNAH BEIER/BLOOMBERG NEWS
“U.S. inflation rose to a 7.9% annual rate last month, another four-decade high. Climbing energy, food and service prices with pressure from Russia’s Ukraine attack are driving it. The last time the consumer-price index, which measures the cost of goods and services across the economy, was this high was in January 1982 at 8.4%.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“NEW YORK (AP) — Angry, defiant and sometimes tearful, more than two dozen Americans whose lives were upended by the opioid crisis finally had their long-awaited chance Thursday to confront in court some members of the family they blame for fueling it.
They were unsparing as they unleashed decades of frustration and sorrow on members of the Sackler family who own OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma over the course of a three-hour virtual hearing.
One woman played a recording from when she called 911 to get help for her overdosing son, then called one of the Sacklers the ‘scum of the earth.’ Several displayed pictures of loved ones who died too soon because of their addictions. Many spoke about forgiveness, with some trying to find it — and others definitely not.
‘I hope that every single victim’s face haunts your every waking moment and your sleeping ones, too,’ said Ryan Hampton, of Las Vegas, who has been in recovery for seven years after an addiction that began with an OxyContin prescription to treat knee pain led to overdoses and periods of homelessness.
Dede Yoder poses for a picture with a photo of her son, Chris Yoder, after making a statement during a hearing in New York on March 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
‘You poisoned our lives and had the audacity to blame us for dying,’ he said. ‘I hope you hear our names in your dreams. I hope you hear the screams of the families who find their loved ones dead on the bathroom floor. I hope you hear the sirens. I hope you hear the heart monitor as it beats along with a failing pulse.’” Read more at AP News
“Today marks two years since the World Health Organization declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic. Since then, official reports through the end of 2021 show that 6 million people worldwide have died directly because of Covid-19. But researchers estimate in a new study that the global pandemic death toll is actually three times higher than that figure. Some of this excess mortality may have been missed in official counts due to the lack of diagnostic or reporting resources, the study says. As for masking, most counties across the US have rolled back requirements or lifted mandates in some form. Only 2% of Americans – about 7 million people – live in a county where the CDC still recommends universal indoor masking.” Read more at CNN
“The Biden administration extended the U.S. travel mask mandate to April 18. The federal directive requiring masks on public transit was due to expire after March 18. It was extended twice before. During the extra time, the CDC will revise its parameters for when masks should be required for travelers.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
“The 2020 Census undercounted Black and Hispanic Americans, among misses within many other groups. The decennial survey failed to capture roughly a net 750,000 people, or about 0.24% of the U.S. population—a margin the Census Bureau said wasn’t statistically significant. Census results underpin federal funding formulas, House seats, the Electoral College and more. Despite the undercounts, census totals won’t be adjusted.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Jussie Smollett is led out of the courtroom after being sentenced yesterday. Photo: Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune via Getty Images
“Actor Jussie Smollett was sentenced to 150 days in jail and 30 months of probation for making a false report to Chicago police that he was the victim of a hate crime in 2019.
The former ‘Empire’ star, who is Black and gay, told police two men attacked him in a hate crime. He was convicted in December on five counts of lying to police, but has maintained he was telling the truth.
Standing up at the defense table as his lawyers and sheriff's deputies surrounded him, Smollett told the judge: ‘[I]f anything happens to me when I go in there, I did not do it to myself. And you must all know that.’” Read more at Axios
“A potential ‘bomb cyclone’ storm could batter portions of the central and eastern U.S. Friday and into the weekend, forecasters warn. Severe thunderstorms could rattle portions of the Southeast on Friday and Saturday. ‘Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are possible late Friday night into early Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast and coastal Carolinas,’ the Storm Prediction Center said. Heavy snow is forecast across interior portions of the Northeast; as much as a foot is possible in some areas. ‘Not only is the Northeast looking at snow with this, but it could also be looking at some strong, gusty winds,’ Weather.com meteorologist Domenica Davis said.” Read more at USA Today
“District Judge Amy Clark Meachum will hold a hearing Friday on whether to grant an injunction barring the Texas Department of Family and Protective Services from following Gov. Greg Abbott's Feb. 23 directive to treat gender-affirming care for minors as ‘child abuse.’ This comes after she issued a temporary restraining order that blocked the state's child-welfare agency from investigating a couple for child abuse because they helped their teenage transgender daughter access gender-affirming medical care. Lawyers from two national civil rights organizations asked Meachum in an emergency hearing last week to issue the temporary restraining order. Several families in Texas with transgender kids started to be investigated immediately after Abbott's February order, according to Paul Castillo, senior counsel for civil rights organization Lambda Legal. Meachum's temporary restraining order put those investigations on pause. If she grants an injunction, those and similar investigations would be blocked completely.” Read more at USA Today
““Some evidence in the murder case at the heart of the ‘Serial’ true-crime podcast’s inaugural season will undergo additional forensic testing. Prosecutors said the DNA testing that’ll be done wasn’t available at the time of Adnan Syed’s trial. He’s serving a life sentence for the 1999 murder of his ex-girlfriend Hae Min Lee; he was 17 years old at the time but was charged as an adult. In 2014, ‘Serial’ explored both the reliability of cellphone data and other possibly overlooked facts of the case.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
A line for A.T.M. of Alfa Bank in Moscow last month.Victor Berzkin/Associated Press
‘Economic war’
“It’s hard to think of a precedent: The British government yesterday ordered Chelsea — one of the world’s most glamorous soccer clubs and Europe’s defending champion — to stop conducting almost all its business operations.
Chelsea can no longer sell tickets or sign players. A team-owned hotel near Chelsea’s West London stadium stopped taking reservations, while the official souvenir store abruptly closed. ‘Shoppers, who had been filling baskets with club merchandise, were told to put everything back and leave,’ our colleague Tariq Panja wrote.
These moves were the latest part of an international campaign to damage Russia’s economy and isolate Russian elites. Chelsea’s owner, Roman Abramovich, is close to Vladimir Putin and is one of seven oligarchs whose assets Britain froze yesterday.
Combined, the sanctions — by Britain, the U.S., the E.U. and others — have been more aggressive than many analysts expected. ‘We’re in totally new territory,’ Nicholas Mulder, a historian of sanctions, told The Atlantic. ‘The speed, the sweep and the size of the sanctions, or the size of the targets of the sanctions — those three factors make them extraordinary.’
The sanctions are unlikely to alter Putin’s military strategy, at least in the short term: Russia seems committed to taking over Ukraine, almost regardless of the human cost. The Russian military has stepped up aerial bombardments across Ukraine, and has continued to attack civilians in an attempt to demoralize the population.
But the sanctions do have the potential to create longer-term problems for Putin’s regime. A Kremlin spokesman has described them as ‘economic war.’ Among their effects:
They have cut off Russian banks from large parts of the international financial markets, which in turn will make it harder for Russian families and businesses to take out loans, use credit cards and make purchases.
The list of Western companies that are pulling out of Russia — like McDonald’s and Starbucks — yesterday grew to include Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Uniqlo. These shutdowns will reduce economic growth in Russia and may cause public frustration.
Some companies have stopped exporting goods to Russia, which will complicate the manufacturing and sale of cellphones, cars and other technology-heavy items.
Russian officials are sufficiently fearful of the effect on stock prices that they halted trading on Moscow’s stock market 11 days ago and have not yet resumed it.
The economic damage has caused the value of Russia’s currency, the ruble, to decline about 40 percent since the war began, effectively increasing the price of any item that comes from outside Russia. ‘That immediately raises the cost of essentials for everyone, and will be felt most sharply by the poorest,’ Patricia Cohen, The Times’s global economics correspondent, told me yesterday.
A closed Louis Vuitton shop in Moscow.Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via Shutterstock
Signs of discontent
The history of sanctions suggests that the world probably needs to impose measures that hurt ordinary Russians if it wants to put political pressure on Putin. ‘Smart’ sanctions, targeted at elites, are an important part of the strategy but by themselves would likely be too narrow to matter to change Putin’s domestic standing.
Even the current set of sanctions may fail to help Ukraine or may even lead Putin to lash out in new ways. (Yesterday, he suggested that he might nationalize the assets of Western companies that pull out of Russia.) Historically, sanctions have been at least partly successful about one-third of the time they have been tried, Mulder told The Atlantic’s Annie Lowrey.
But because Ukraine’s allies seem unwilling to send troops, sanctions seem their best hope for confronting Putin. And the sanctions do seem to be having some effect already. Oleg Deripaska, a prominent billionaire (and among those whom Britain sanctioned yesterday), recently said that he expected the country to experience an economic crisis lasting at least three years. Already, there are signs that the turmoil may be aggravating Russian public discontent that already existed about the war.
‘Russian public opinion is becoming such a problem that Putin is effectively fighting two wars: one in Ukraine, and one at home,’ Sam Greene, a Russia scholar at King’s College London, wrote this week. Erica Frantz, an expert on dictators at Michigan State University, told our colleague Max Fisher, ‘The indicators of elite discontent that we have seen thus far are unusual in Putin’s Russia and should therefore be taken seriously.’
Still in Russia
It’s worth mentioning that there are at least two major categories of sanctions that the world has not imposed on Russia.
One, Europe continues to buy large amounts of oil and natural gas from Russia, and energy is easily Russia’s biggest source of revenue. Europe is so reliant on Russian energy that a full embargo could cause large price increases, notes Mark Landler, The Times’s London bureau chief.
Two, some large companies are continuing to operate in Russia, as the Popular Information newsletter has reported. Hyatt and Marriott have continued running hotels there. Citi, Bridgestone Tire and Philip Morris have also continued their operations. And Halliburton has continued to operate oil fields in Russia despite a specific appeal from a top Ukrainian official.
‘Always unfortunate in so many ways for so many people,’ Jeff Miller, Halliburton’s chief executive, said in January, about the prospect of a war. ‘But from a business perspective, we’ve managed these sorts of things up and down for, I hate to say, nearly 100 years.’
We asked Hyatt, Marriott, Halliburton and other companies to explain their decisions to continue operating in Russia, and they did not do so. Several have expressed shock or horror about the war.
Yelena Lavinska mourns her fiancé, Mikhailo Pristupa, a Ukrainian soldier, in Kyiv, Ukraine.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
The State of the War
Russian missiles struck at least three cities in western and central Ukraine, and there were reports of fierce fighting on the outskirts of Kyiv.
Russia continued its attack on Mariupol, where bodies are being buried in trenches. Satellite images show widespread damage.
Russia didn’t capture major cities in the past week, but its forces have fought their way into smaller cities. Yesterday they encircled Chernihiv, which is cut off from the national power grid and running out of burial space.
President Biden will call for suspending normal trade relations with Russia, which would raise tariffs for many Russian products.
The White House warned that false claims about the war by Russia and China may be providing cover for certain Russian operations. (Here are four debunked falsehoods.)” Read more at New York Times
“North Korea’s ongoing weapons tests – two of which recently involved intercontinental ballistic missiles – is a ‘serious escalation’ by Pyongyang and its leader Kim Jong Un, US officials say. The two ballistic missile tests conducted on February 26 and March 4 were not intended to demonstrate the range or capability of these high power weapons, but were ‘likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch,’ Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in a statement yesterday. In response, Japanese and South Korean leaders today agreed to boost ties with the US to tackle North Korea.” Read more at CNN
“In a temporary change to hate speech policies on Facebook and Instagram, both platforms are allowing users in some countries to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine invasion, according to internal emails seen by Reuters. Meta, the parent company of both platforms, said ‘temporary allowances’ are being made ‘for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules like violent speech such as 'death to the Russian invaders.’Meta is also allowing some posts that call for death to Russian President Vladimir Putin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in countries including Russia, Ukraine and Poland, according to the internal emails. The platforms won’t allow credible calls for violence against Russian civilians, a Meta spokesperson told CNN.” Read more at CNN
“Chile’s new president, Gabriel Boric, takes office today as the country’s youngest ever, but also its greenest. Boric, 36, is in the vanguard of an emerging political awareness across Latin America of the impact of climate change and its relation to inequality, whether access to water or indigenous rights. As Andrew Rosati and James Attwood report, the nascent green wave has profound implications for a region that is a resources superpower.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Emilio Delgado, who for 45 years was a familiar presence in children’s lives and a rare Latino face as Luis on ‘Sesame Street,’ has died. He was 81.
Emilio Delgado - Zach Hyman
“Major League Baseball and its players ratified a new collective bargaining agreement Thursday afternoon, ending a 99-day lockout and avoiding serious long-term damage to the game. Praise be.
Players are reporting to spring training shortly. Opening Day is set for April 7. We’re back.
A few key takeaways from the new CBA:
We are getting a 162-game season. The week of missed games will be rescheduled for off-days in the current slate.
The universal designated hitter is here. Pulse verdict: Hell yeah. Shohei Ohtani aside, better hitters occupying spots in the batting order is good for the game.
No more ghost runners on second base to start extra innings. Also, the bases are 3 inches bigger now, which apparently will encourage more activity on the basepaths, but consider me dubious.
You can read all the financial details here, but the verdict is that both sides are happy the game is back. The Athletic's Evan Drellich made the case that the players won — and could've won more.
What's next? As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark write, brace yourself for the wildest spring training we’ve seen. Free agency is crunched. Teams scrambling to sell tickets, roster decisions made on a whim — it’ll all be there.
Now we get to the more entertaining question: Who’s good?
Vegas has the Dodgers as World Series favorites. Our friends at BetMGM have them at +600 to win it all, and most other books are around that number. The Astros, Yankees and Mets are next in line.
Remember the note in Thursday’s newsletter about U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin threatening antitrust legislation? That’s not going away, as Sen. Bernie Sanders wrote in a lengthy statement Thursday. Something to keep an eye on.” Read more at The Athletic