The Full Belmonte, 3/10/2023
President Biden in Philadelphia yesterday.Doug Mills/The New York Times
“Biden released his proposed budget. It would reduce the deficit through a minimum tax on billionaires and a higher tax on corporate stock buybacks.”
“The budget won’t become law but offers a preview of the populist themes Biden will probably highlight in a re-election campaign.”
“Congressional Republicans called Biden’s plan ‘a road map for fiscal ruin.’ Republicans have not yet released their own budget plan.” [New York Times]
New York prosecutors offer Trump a chance to testify before grand jury
Such offers are triggered by a request from a potential defendant, and could signal the long-running probe is nearing completion
“NEW YORK — Former president Donald Trump has been invited by the Manhattan district attorney to appear next week before a grand jury investigating his business affairs, an offer that may mark a significant development years after the start of the probe, three people with knowledge of the proceedings said Thursday.
They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.
The grand jury notification — alerting Trump of his opportunity to appear before the secret panel — could signify that the state prosecutor’s investigation is winding down. It remains unclear whether Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg will seek an indictment at the end of the process.
In New York state, the target of a criminal investigation that has not yet resulted in an arrest can request this type of notification when a case against them is being heard by a grand jury — if they know independently that proceedings are underway. The requirement is designed to give the target a chance to be heard by the panel in his own defense. Defense attorneys generally consider it risky for a client to testify in that scenario….” Read more at New York Times
Gun laws
“A federal appeals court on Thursday upheld a Florida law that raised the minimum age to purchase a gun from 18 to 21. The law was initially passed after 17 people were killed in a shooting by a 19-year-old at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in 2018. The 3-0 ruling from the 11th US Circuit Court of Appeals comes as age-based restrictions are shaping up to become a flashpoint in the legal battles over gun access since the Supreme Court last year laid out a new test for determining a gun restriction’s constitutionality. But the ruling may also be short-lived after Republican lawmakers in Florida this week introduced a bill that would lower the minimum age required to buy a firearm in the state from 21 back to 18.” [CNN]
GOP Leader McConnell remains in hospital after concussion
“WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell was being treated Thursday for a concussion and is expected to remain in the hospital for ‘a few days’ after he tripped and fell at a hotel dinner the night before, his spokesman said.
The Kentucky senator, 81, was at a Wednesday evening dinner after a reception for the Senate Leadership Fund, a campaign committee aligned with him, when he tripped and fell. The events were at the Waldorf Astoria Washington DC, formerly the Trump International Hotel.
Spokesman David Popp said McConnell is being treated for a concussion and ‘is grateful to the medical professionals for their care and to his colleagues for their warm wishes.’ McConnell’s office did not provide additional detail on his condition or how long he may be absent from the Senate….”
Voter anger fuels homelessness politics
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
“Homelessness is a potent issue in local elections nationwide this year, often coupled with fear and anger about crime, Axios Local's John Frank, Jessica Boehm and Kim Bojórquez report.
Why it matters: The pressure is driving candidates and elected officials — even prominent Democrats, including New York Mayor Eric Adams and California Gov. Gavin Newsom — to embrace hardline approaches like involuntary commitment and arrests to clear illegal encampments.
What's happening: The entangled problems of homelessness and crime helped oust Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot — and now are poised to upend municipal races in Denver, Phoenix and Salt Lake City.
Increasingly frustrated residents of major cities have pushed the issue to the forefront after decades of promises about solutions have produced few results.
Between the lines: The shift in tone and policy toward enforcement signifies an about-face from a more compassionate approach that offered services to vulnerable people.
A recent poll in the mayoral race in Denver, a national Democratic hub, found more than 70% embraced forcing people to get help if they're living on the streets with ‘serious addictions.’ Nearly 60% backed ‘sweeps’ to clear illegal homeless camps.
‘Loving these people, hugging these people, is not enough,’ says Democratic pollster Brad Chism, who partnered with a Republican firm on the Denver survey. ‘Perhaps some tough love is in order.’
The other side: Advocates and service providers say the new approach is more about expedient politics than helping people.
Elected officials ‘are turning away from the long-term solutions we know work,’ Sarah Saadian, a senior vice president at the National Low Income Housing Coalition, tells Axios. ‘Instead, they are turning to these out-of-sight, out-of-mind policies.’
The big picture: Homelessness rates increased nationwide in 2022, up 6% from a low in 2016, according to a HUD assessment from December.
A shortage of affordable housing is the key driver in homelessness rates, research confirms.
The correlation is clear in the West, where states see the highest concentration of homelessness and the highest rent costs.
California, Arizona and Oregon saw some of the largest increases in homelessness from 2020 to 2022.” [Axios]
Dems already advertising against DeSantis
Screenshot: American Bridge PAC
“He's not even officially running for the 2024 Republican nomination, let alone in a general election against President Biden.
But Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stars in pro-Biden ads that begin airing today in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports.
Why it matters: Dems are betting DeSantis' culture-war politics are a turnoff to women and working-class voters in rural counties.
So they're lumping him with former President Trump and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in messages about battling "extremists."
American Bridge 21st Century, a liberal PAC that supports Democratic candidates, is launching a six-figure TV and radio ad campaign today in Erie, Pa.; Green Bay, Wisc.; Flint, Mich.; and Greensboro, N.C.
Biden won all those states but North Carolina in 2020.
The pro-Biden ads highlight his efforts to lower insulin costs, protect Social Security and Medicare and pass bipartisan infrastructure legislation.
Though the ads don't name Trump, DeSantis, or McCarthy, they feature video clips of each as the narrator says that Biden is battling ‘MAGA Republicans.’
‘We've seen extremism on the Republican side bring more women into the fold for Democrats since 2017,’ American Bridge co-founder Bradley Beychok told Axios. ‘We want to be communicating with them in all mediums.’
GOP '24 hopefuls are also targeting DeSantis, Politico's Jonathan Martin notes.
P.S. DeSantis' book, "The Courage to Be Free," debuted this week at No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list.” [Axios]
GloRilla concert stampede claims third victim
“A third woman who was severely injured when a large crowd rushed out of a rap concert in Rochester, New York, has died, Rochester police confirmed Thursday. All three women were trampled as the crowd was leaving Rochester's Main Street Armory following a GloRilla concert on Sunday night. Two women — Rhondesia Belton, 33, of Buffalo, New York, and Brandy Miller, 35, of Rochester — both died on Monday. The incident occurred just after 11 p.m. Sunday, as people were exiting the Armory following a concert featuring Memphis rappers GloRilla and Finesse2tymes.” Read more at USA Today
Rochester Police Chief David Smith on Monday said the injuries appeared to be the result of a crowd pushing toward the exits Sunday night after they thought they heard gunshots.
Tina MacIntyre-Yee, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
White Supremacist Propaganda Soared Last Year, Report Finds
The report, by the Anti-Defamation League, said three far-right groups were responsible for the large majority of the hateful fliers, banners and graffiti.
By Alan Feuer
“Antisemitic leaflets dropped at private homes in Southern California. Fliers saying, ‘Stand Up White Man,’ left in driveways in suburban Indiana. A laser projector casting hateful messages outside a football stadium in Florida.
Propaganda efforts by white supremacist groups soared in 2022 as such incidents reached a five-year high across the country, according to a new report by the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism.
In the report, released on Thursday morning, researchers for the A.D.L. say they have identified more than 6,750 separate occasions last year on which white supremacist organizations distributed racist, antisemitic or otherwise hateful fliers, stickers, banners, images, posters or graffiti. That is a nearly 40 percent rise in similar incidents compared with 2021 and a more than fivefold increase since 2018, according to the report.
Propaganda by hate groups serves not only to frighten and harass those who see it, but can also act as a powerful recruiting tool. Moreover, it can desensitize people to acts of aggression against victims — and even inspire violence in its viewers, scholars of political violence say….” Read more at New York Times
Saudi Arabia, Iran Restore Relations in Deal Brokered by China
Deal marks diplomatic victory for Beijing in a region where U.S. has long dominated geopolitics
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Under the agreement, Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen their embassies within two months.PHOTO: IRANIAN PRESIDENCY OFFICE/ZUMA PRESS
“RIYADH, Saudi Arabia—Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations Friday in a deal brokered by China, ending seven years of estrangement and jolting the geopolitical alignment of the Middle East.
The deal, which comes after other unsuccessful attempts by Iraq and others to mend fences, marks a diplomatic victory for Beijing in a region where the U.S. has long dominated geopolitics.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are major suppliers of oil to China and have sought closer economic ties, but the agreement is the first time Beijing has weighed in so heavily on the region’s rivalries.
The agreement was hammered out in secret in Beijing between top Saudi and Iranian officials over several days, Iranian state-aligned media reported.
Under the agreement released by all three countries, Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen their embassies and missions within two months, and both affirmed noninterference in the internal affairs of other states.
Ties between the two countries were cut in 2016 after the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was overrun amid protests over the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric by the Saudi government.
Since then, the Iran-Saudi rift has represented the often violent schism between Shiite and Sunni Muslims that has dominated the Middle East for decades….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Xi set for power for life
Xi Jinping takes the oath at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing today. Photo: Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images
“Xi Jinping, 69, was awarded a third five-year term as China's president today, putting him on track to stay in power for life.
Why it matters: The Chinese Parliament's unanimous vote means Xi's authoritarianism and assertive foreign policies are likely to continue, Axios China author Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian reports.” [Axios]
Xi pushes a button to vote today during a session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP
“Chinese President Xi Jinping was reappointed today for another five years in a ceremonial vote in Beijing's Great Hall of the People -- a highly choreographed exercise in political theater meant to demonstrate the legitimacy and unity of the ruling elite. He received a unanimous 2,952 votes followed by a standing ovation. The reappointment of Xi, China's most powerful and authoritarian leader in decades, was largely seen as a formality after the 69-year-old secured a norm-shattering third term as head of the Chinese Communist Party last fall. In 2018, China's legislature abolished presidential term limits in a ceremonial vote, effectively allowing Xi to rule for life. Nevertheless, his reappointment as head of state officially completes his transition into a second decade in power.” [CNN]
Forensics team members gather evidence at the site of Thursday's mass shooting in Hamburg, Germany.
Germany shooting
“Seven people were killed during a mass shooting on Thursday at a Jehovah's Witnesses Kingdom Hall in the German city of Hamburg in what the country's leader denounced as a ‘brutal act of violence.’ The alleged perpetrator also died in the incident, Hamburg police said. There is ‘no confirmed information on the motive for the crime,’ police said in a statement. As the investigation remains ongoing, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led politicians in denouncing the murder spree in the northern German city. ‘Several members of a Jehovah community fell victim to a brutal act of violence last night. My thoughts are with them and their loved ones,’ he wrote on Twitter today.” [CNN]
Mexico kidnapping
“A week after the kidnapping of four Americans in Mexico, investigators are still working to piece together how and why the abduction unfolded. This comes after a cartel apologized for carrying out what one victim’s father has called ‘a senseless crime’ that left two Americans and one Mexican woman dead. The Gulf Cartel, which is believed to be responsible for the kidnapping, also issued an alleged apology letter and handed over five of its members to local authorities. The tight-knit group of friends had traveled from South Carolina to Matamoros so that one of them could undergo a medical procedure -- but they were violently intercepted by gunmen who fired into their vehicle, loaded them into the back of a truck and took them away.” [CNN]
The bodies of kidnapped Americans Shaeed Woodard and Zindell Brown are transported back to the U.S. on Thursday, March 9, 2023.
Miguel Roberts, AP
Russia Fires Deadly Barrage of Missiles
“As Russian and Ukrainian forces battle for control of Bakhmut, Moscow fired more than 80 missiles into Ukraine on Thursday, marking one of its worst aerial assaults in recent weeks.
In the latest onslaught, Russia deployed six powerful hypersonic missiles that Ukraine’s air defenses aren’t equipped to stop. The strikes killed at least six people in the regions of Lviv and Dnipropetrovsk and hit critical infrastructure, spurring power outages. On Thursday, ‘Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 likely only to advance Russian state propaganda objectives,’ said the Institute for the Study of War.
It also severed power to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, prompting alarm and outrage from the International Atomic Energy Agency over the increasingly precarious state of the plant. Despite being Europe’s ‘largest nuclear power station,’ said IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi, it has now been forced to resort to its emergency power supply six times.
‘I am astonished by the complacency—what are we doing to prevent this happening?’ Grossi added. ‘Each time we are rolling a dice. And if we allow this to continue time after time then one day our luck will run out.’
The spate of attacks comes as U.S. intelligence chief Avril Haines testified that she doesn’t believe Russian forces have the numbers, resources, or morale to seize significant territory this year.
‘If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and identify substantial third-party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain the current level of offensive operations in the coming months,’ she said, adding: ‘We do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul proposals. Sweeping protests roiled Israel on Thursday over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial plans to constrain the Supreme Court’s authority. The protesters and critics of his proposed overhaul—including members of the Israeli military—warn that such a move would severely weaken Israel’s democratic institutions and checks and balances.
By filling major highways and roads, the demonstrators forced Netanyahu—who had a flight to Italy—to resort to being airlifted to the airport. They also interfered with the scheduled itinerary and meeting plans of U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who was in Israel on Thursday.” [Foreign Policy]
“Biden meets von der Leyen. U.S. President Joe Biden will host European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the White House today. They are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and joint cooperation in climate policy, energy security, and critical supply chains—and Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has been a key sticking point.
Friday’s meeting comes on the heels of von der Leyen’s trip to Canada, during which she and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau discussed forging a ‘green alliance.’ ‘We want to create, as an overarching topic, basically as an umbrella, a green alliance between the European Union and Canada,’ she said. ‘It is to create good and well-paying jobs, to promote growth, to boost our energy and climate cooperation across the board.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Abortion rights in France. French President Emmanuel Macron aims to advance legislation to incorporate abortion rights in the country’s constitution, he announced on Wednesday. T’his will enshrine the freedom of women to choose abortion, and be a solemn guarantee that nothing can ever limit or abolish this right because it will have become irreversible,’ he said.” [Foreign Policy]
“Migrant tragedy off Tunisian coast. Fourteen African migrants were killed when their boat submerged in the Mediterranean Sea, the Tunisian National Guard said Thursday, while 45 migrants were rescued. Authorities also intercepted 14 boats that were transporting 435 migrants.” [Foreign Policy]
“One of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds has a new boss. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan will become chairman of Abu Dhabi’s
$790 billion sovereign wealth fund. He’s already the United Arab Emirates’ national security adviser and head of its largest bank. His brother, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, will lead the emirate’s Mubadala Investment Co., which has only $272 billion.” [Bloomberg]
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan Photographer: Vahid Salemi/AP
ChatGPT sermons
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Religious leaders are dabbling in ChatGPT for sermon writing, Jennifer A. Kingson writes for Axios What's Next.
Why it matters: They're finding it's great for plucking Bible verses and concocting nice-sounding sentiments — but lacks the human warmth that congregants crave.
Curious leaders of all faiths have been plugging in prompts to ChatGPT: ‘Preach to me about the raising of Lazarus in John 11.’
Todd Brewer, managing editor of a religious publication called Mockingbird, wrote: ‘The AI sermon is better than several Christmas sermons I've heard over the years.’
Between the lines: Early sermon-writing experiments have shown ChatGPT can pull together cogent, relevant thoughts from religious texts and theologians — plus turns-of-phrase that seem stirring and poignant.
ChatGPT can alleviate some of the religious leaders' more routine or repetitive tasks — explaining particular holidays — while freeing them for more meaningful spiritual counseling.
Case in point: Rabbi Joshua Franklin, of the Jewish Center of the Hamptons in East Hampton, N.Y., delivered what he warned his flock was a ‘plagiarized’ sermon about the theme of vulnerability.
He was shocked when congregants guessed that it had been written by his father or a famous rabbi rather than AI.
Reality check: Ken Sundet Jones, a Lutheran pastor and theology professor in Des Moines who posed the Lazarus question, wrote that the chatbot is a ‘bit of a didactic bore.’
Plus ‘it can't do visitation.’” [Axios]
North Carolina's NCAA Tournament bubble bursts in loss to Virginia
“The countdown to Selection Sunday is on, with all six major conferences in the thick of league tournament games. No. 13 Virginia dealt a damaging blow Thursday to North Carolina’s already shaky NCAA Tournament hopes, beating the Tar Heels 68-59 in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament quarterfinals. Tonight Virginia will keep fighting in a match-up against Clemson. Quick reminder: the official bracket will be announced Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on CBS. Click here for a recap of last night's games and click here for conference tournament schedules.” [USA Today]
North Carolina's R.J. Davis reacts after being called for a foul against Virginia.
Grant Halverson, Getty Images
Normandy cliffs erode
Photo: Pascal Rossignol/Reuters
“Parts of the cliffs in Normandy, France — site of the D-Day landings in World War II in 19444, 79 years ago — are eroding amid drier summers
This view shows part of Cap Fagnet cliff in Fecamp, France, which crashed into the sea last month due to coastal erosion.
The one-day loss was equivalent to 100 years' worth of normal erosion.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: Ian Falconer designed opera sets, drew covers for The New Yorker and created “Olivia,” a children’s book about a piglet that became a sensation. Falconer died at 63.” [New York Times]
“Robert Blake portrayed gritty characters, but a trial and acquittal in his wife’s murder eclipsed his acting career. Blake died at 89.” [New York Times]