The Full Belmonte, 2/7/2023
President Biden delivers his first State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress on March 1, 2022.
Biden
“President Joe Biden will deliver his State of the Union address to the American people tonight at 9 p.m. ET. It's a tradition rooted in the US Constitution, following 98 previous in-person annual messages since George Washington's first in 1790. This will be Biden's second State of the Union address, but his first in front of a divided Congress. During the speech, he will seek to remind lawmakers and the nation of his accomplishments, while also demonstrating that he can serve the country for another term. He's expected to touch on a number of the most pressing issues in the US, including inflation, Covid-19, mass shootings, police reform and infrastructure. Following the address, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders will deliver the Republican response, GOP congressional leaders announced.” [CNN]
Earthquake
Searching for survivors in Adana, Turkey, early this morning.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
“More than 5,000 people have been killed and tens of thousands injured after a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Turkey and Syria on Monday. A massive rescue effort is underway and aid agencies are particularly worried about northwestern Syria, where more than 4 million people were already relying on humanitarian assistance. The international community has been quick to offer assistance to the countries as the full scale of the disaster becomes clear. This morning, planes arrived in Syria carrying aid from Iraq and Iran, including food, medicine, and blankets, according to state media. The US, Japan, India, Pakistan and other countries have committed to assist with rescue crews. Meanwhile, more than 300 Russian soldiers are also clearing debris and helping in search operations in Syria, Russia's Defense Ministry said.” [CNN]
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Train derailment
“Residents of East Palestine, Ohio, are still unable to return to their homes after a train derailment four days ago sparked a massive fire and prompted widespread evacuations. The train crashed Friday while carrying hazardous materials, causing a fire that continues to burn. Five of the derailed train cars were carrying vinyl chloride -- a chemical that is unstable and threatened an explosion that would have hurled toxic fumes into the air and shoot deadly shrapnel as far as a mile away, officials said. Crews on Monday performed a controlled release of the chemicals, but evacuated residents are still being urged to stay away today amid the wait for the fire to die down.” [CNN]
McCarthy confirms Santos is facing House probe
U.S. Representative George Santos (R-NY) leaves his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
“New York Rep. George Santos is now facing an investigation from the House Ethics Committee, a probe that could derail his already imperiled political career depending on the secretive panel’s findings.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy confirmed to CNN on Tuesday that the embattled freshman is under investigation by the committee, something that even Republicans acknowledge could lead to his expulsion from Congress if the panel turns up serious evidence of wrongdoing.
McCarthy has so far not called on Santos to resign, saying previously his fate should be decided by voters. But he has increasingly suggested that the House ethics probe could change his posture to the freshman, who hails from a swing district that President Joe Biden carried by eight points in 2020.
‘Ethics is moving through, and if ethics finds something, we’ll take action,’ McCarthy told CNN on Tuesday when asked about calls for his resignation. ‘Right now, we’re not allowing him to be on committees from the standpoint of the questions that have arisen.’
Santos has voluntarily stepped down from two House committees even though McCarthy and his allies initially awarded him the spots. McCarthy later said that he had “new questions” about the freshman but declined to say what those were, indicating he agreed with Santos’ decision to step down from those panels.
So far, Santos, who is facing a list of growing questions about fabricating his past and about his campaign finances, has been defiant, insisting he would continue to serve in the House.
On Tuesday, Santos told CNN he is ‘not concerned’ about the House ethics probe or about New York constituents calling on him to resign.
‘You’re saying that the freedom of speech of my constituents is a distraction to my work?’ Santos said. ‘Do you think people are a distraction to the work I’m doing here?’
But even some fellow New York GOP freshmen say it’s time for Santos to hang it up.
‘As I’ve said consistently, I think he ought to resign and really take stock of himself and start being honest, not only with the people he serves, but with himself,’ said Rep. Marc Molinaro, a New York GOP freshman.” (CNN)
Immigration
“Immigration remains at historic highs amid deteriorating conditions in Latin America that were exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, border experts say. Data shows this has increasingly included more migrants from countries outside of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala -- posing a unique challenge to the Biden administration. Last December, border authorities took about 77,000 migrants from Cuba or Nicaragua into custody, according to US Customs and Border Protection data. That's compared to about 53,000 encounters with migrants from Mexico and northern Central America, marking a drop from December 2021. While the Biden administration has garnered more than $4.2 billion in private sector commitments to tackle the root causes of migration, officials say the funds are being channeled toward long-term fixes, so it could take more time to see substantial changes on the ground.” [CNN]
New PAC to aid Dems discounted by establishment
Mandela Barnes concedes to Sen. Ron Johnson on Nov. 9 in Milwaukee. Photo: Morry Gash/AP
“Mandela Barnes, a Democrat who came close to winning a U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin in November, today will launch a PAC to help candidates who are written off by institutional supporters, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports.
Why it matters: Barnes — like Maryland's newly elected Gov. Wes Moore — faced skepticism from some corners of the Democratic Party about his electability. Both were African Americans competing for seats that had always been held by white lawmakers.
The Long Run PAC hopes to support women, people of color, LGBTQ, and working-class candidates across the country, Barnes told Axios — since they're likely to face negative assumptions because they don't "fit the mold" that Democrats think can win competitive statewide races.” [Axios]
Neo-Nazi leader and girlfriend accused of targeting Md. power stations
Atomwaffen founder Brandon Russell and a girlfriend, Sarah Clendaniel, are accused of a plot to attack power substations around Baltimore
“BALTIMORE — A neo-Nazi leader recently released from prison is accused of plotting an attack on the Maryland power grid with a woman he met while incarcerated.
The charges against Brandon Russell, 27, and Sarah Clendaniel, 34, come amid a spate of sabotage targeting power stations across the country. Gunfire at two North Carolina substations in December left 45,000 people without power for several days. Most of the cases remain unsolved, but authorities and experts say they follow increased interest among white supremacists in targeting electric infrastructure.
‘If we can pull off what I’m hoping … this would be legendary,’ Clendaniel said on Jan. 29, according to the court record. She was speaking to a federal informant, who was having similar discussions with Russell.
The two appeared in court Monday in Baltimore and Florida federal courts on a charge of conspiring to destroy an energy facility, which carries up to 20 years in prison.
According to prosecutors, their plan was to attack with gunfire five substations that serve the Baltimore area. In conversations about the plot, according to court documents, Clendaniel ‘described how there was a ‘ring’ around Baltimore and if they hit a number of them all in the same day, they ‘would completely destroy this whole city.’
At a news conference Monday morning, U.S. Attorney for the District of Maryland Erek L. Barron thanked federal, state and local law enforcement partners for stopping the plot….” Read more at Washington Post
“The US is said to be preparing a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum as soon as this week to keep pressure on Moscow as the one-year anniversary of its war on Ukraine nears. Biden has yet to give the official go-ahead, as there have been concerns about collateral damage on US industries, including aerospace and automobiles.” [Bloomberg]
A “Made in Russia” tag on a bound stack of aluminum ingots in Sayanogorsk, Russia. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
Parking lots in France will soon be covered in solar panels.
“What’s happening? A bill expected to pass the French Senate today will require canopies of solar panels to be built on top of all large parking lots within three to five years.
Why this matters: It’s a creative climate solution for places that have little extra land for solar panels. The French parking lots could generate as much electricity as 10 nuclear power plants.” [Washington Post]
February 7, 2023
By David Leonhardt and Claire Moses
Good morning. Time is running out and cold weather is impeding the search for survivors after a major earthquake hit Turkey.
Digging for Survivors
“The earthquakes were horrific on their own. First — shortly after 4 a.m. local time on Monday — came Turkey’s strongest quake in more than 80 years, followed hours later by an unusually powerful aftershock. The latest death count is more than 5,000 and will probably rise.
Compounding the damage are three existing crises in the region where the quakes hit, near the Syrian border in southern Turkey: first, Syria’s civil war; second, a surge of refugees into Turkey because of the war; third, economic problems in both countries.
Today’s newsletter gives you the latest details and photographs from Turkey and Syria as well as an explanation of the larger problems facing the region. Those problems are complicating the recovery from the quake and will continue to do so.
What we know
The earthquake buckled thousands of buildings, including around 15 hospitals in Turkey and a 2,000-year-old castle. In one apartment block, residents gathered around a bonfire to stay warm. Because of aftershocks, thousands of people slept in cars or outside to avoid getting stuck in their buildings.
The area was vulnerable to a major earthquake. Older buildings with concrete frames are common. And in northern Syria, infrastructure was already fragile after years of bombardments. This map shows the destruction.
Temperatures are near freezing in much of the region, and snow or rain is forecast. When the earthquake hit, many people were asleep and had not been prepared for the cold. ‘This is a race against time and hypothermia,’ a meteorologist at Istanbul Technical University said.
About 22 hours after the earthquake, rescuers pulled a woman from the rubble. But time is running out — most rescues tend to happen within three days. More than 16,000 rescuers are involved in the search, according to Turkish state news media.
In the Turkish city of Malatya, electricity was out in many parts and there was no fuel at gas stations, said Emin Ozmen, a photographer covering the devastation for The Times. ‘I started walking in the most hit neighborhood. I saw dozens of collapsed buildings, but only two groups of rescuers,’ Emin told us. ‘If it’s like this in a big city, I can’t imagine the situation in towns and villages.’
Sergey Ponomarev, another photographer for The Times, who just arrived in Iskenderun, Turkey, described a plume of black smoke rising from burning containers in the port, and the constant sound of alarms and ambulances. In another part of the city, he told us, multiple apartment buildings and a hospital collapsed. “There’s a lot of dust,” Sergey said. ‘There are quite a lot of people just sitting and watching. Probably, they spent the whole night on the street so they look very exhausted.’
Governments — including those of the U.S., the E.U., India, Israel, Russia and Ukraine — sent search teams and medical squads. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, declared seven days of national mourning.
Devastation in the village of Besnia, in northwestern Syria, yesterday.Omar Haj Kadour/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Crisis No. 1: Syria’s war
‘We kept looking up to the sky for jets,’ said Osama Salloum, a doctor in a part of northwestern Syria where the quakes hit. ‘My mind was playing tricks on me, telling me it was war again.’
The region includes the city of Aleppo, the site of some of the worst fighting during Syria’s decade-long civil war (which has been halted by a cease-fire since 2020). Syria’s government leveled large sections of Aleppo between 2012 and 2016 and killed thousands of people. The assault succeeded, and the battle of Aleppo was a turning point that helped Syria’s government effectively win the civil war.
Rebuilding since then has been limited, our colleague Raja Abdulrahim writes, and the earthquake has created an acute set of new problems. ‘Anywhere else in the world this would be an emergency,’ a spokesman for the International Rescue Committee said. ‘What we have in Syria is an emergency within an emergency.’
Searching through the rubble in Zardana, Syria, yesterday.Mohammed Al-Rifai/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
No. 2: The refugees
The flow of Syrian refugees into Western Europe has received a lot of attention in recent years. In some countries, including Italy and Germany, it appears to have bolstered far-right political parties.
But the scale of war-related immigration to Turkey is of another order of magnitude. As The Economist writes:
At the end of 2010, just before the start of the war, Turkey had only 10,000 refugees and asylum seekers. Twelve years on, it hosts 3.6 million Syrians, more than the rest of Europe put together, plus over a million migrants from Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East and Russia. Turkey is a country transformed.
Recovering from the quakes will be even harder for refugees living in temporary quarters, such as the three “container cities” in the southeastern part of the country.
Rescuers carrying a man out of a collapsed building in Malatya, Turkey.Emin Ozmen for The New York Times
No. 3: The economy
As prices have soared across much of the world over the past few years, central banks have raised interest rates. Economists across the ideological spectrum agree with the approach (even if they disagree about the details): By making loans more expensive, the central banks depress demand and reduce inflation.
Turkey, however, has pursued a very different monetary policy. It has reduced interest rates. I’ll spare you the technical arguments that its government has offered in defense of the policy, because it has failed. Annual inflation has hovered between 50 percent and 90 percent over the past year, causing hardship for many families and businesses.
The earthquakes are likely to make matters worse by disrupting production and supply chains. As the world experienced during Covid, supply-chain problems reduce the supply of goods and, by extension, often cause price increases.
Southeastern Turkey, where the quakes hit, was already one the country’s poorest regions. The economic slump appears to be aggravating concerns about the influx of refugees.
Syria’s economy is in even worse condition than Turkey’s, because of the war. Syria’s G.D.P. — which measures total economic production — fell by more than half between 2010 and 2020, our colleague Liz Alderman notes.
For more: Many organizations are aiding the rescue efforts. Here’s how you can help the victims.” [New York Times]
“Dell Technologies is firing about 6,650 of its employees, saying it faces plummeting demand for personal computers. It becomes the latest technology company to announce thousands of terminations. The reduction amounts to about 5% of Dell’s global workforce.” [Bloomberg]
“Google on Monday unveiled a new chatbot tool dubbed ‘Bard’ in an apparent bid to compete with the success of ChatGPT. The viral ChatGPT bot has stunned users with its ability to provide lengthy, thoughtful and thorough responses to questions and prompts -- even if inaccurate. But as with other AI-powered tools, it's also posed some concerns, including how it could disrupt education and spread misinformation. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and parent company Alphabet, said in a blog post that Bard will be opened up to ‘trusted testers’ starting this week, with plans to make it available to the public ‘in the coming weeks.’ Chinese search engine giant Baidu also said today it would be launching its own ChatGPT-style service, sending the company's shares soaring.” [CNN]
Tabloid era over
Photo illustration: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
“The National Enquirer's owners say they've struck an agreement with a joint venture called VVIP Ventures to acquire the U.S. and U.K. editions of the Enquirer, the National Examiner and the Globe in an all-cash transaction for an undisclosed amount.
Why it matters: The sale of the Enquirer, a storied gossip rag that became engulfed in scandals in recent years, is the latest American tabloid giant to change hands as the era of print gossip fades, Axios Media Trends expert Sara Fischer writes.
What's happening: A small group of powerful voices has been replaced by hundreds of digital influencers and gossip sites that run the same rumors, often with even less accountability.
While many print tabloids still run articles without bylines and using anonymous sources, it's still clear who owns most magazines. Online, even that small layer of accountability is often missing.
The big picture: With few exceptions, most major U.S. print tabloids failed to adjust to the digital era. So their audiences have aged with them. Left with smaller business prospects, many titles have been sold for a fraction of their former values to buyers eager to salvage what's left of once-powerful brands.
Some celebrity and gossip magazines have ceased printing but remain online.
The one major exception has been the Daily Mail, a British tabloid whose U.S. version has become one of the most-trafficked American websites.
The Daily Mail's successful online presence in the U.K. helped jumpstart its U.S. digital presence, at a time when other tabloids weren't investing much in their websites.
The big picture: Many of today's biggest internet gossip stories are peddled by anonymous people and accounts.
The viral Instagram account DeuxMoi, which rose to popularity during the pandemic, made a name for itself by posting anonymous tips about everything from celebrity coffee orders to Hollywood affairs.” [Axios]