The Full Belmonte, 2/6/2024
Historic storm sends debris through L.A.'s Hollywood Hills and leaves 1.1 million without power
“A storm of historic proportions unleashed record levels of rain over parts of Los Angeles on Monday, sending mud and boulders down hillsides dotted with multimillion-dollar homes, posing grave dangers to the city’s large homeless population and knocking out power for more than a million people in California.” Read More at AP News
King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer and will halt public duties as he undergoes treatment
“The palace didn’t say what form of cancer the king has, but said it’s not related to the king’s recent treatment for a benign prostate condition.: Read More at AP News
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event last month in Iowa. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Presidential race
“Former President Donald Trump on Monday urged the Supreme Court to keep his name on Colorado's 2024 ballot, accusing his challengers of pursuing an ‘anti-democratic’ legal case against him. This comes as the high court is set to hear arguments Thursday on whether to disqualify Trump from office because of the January 6, 2021, insurrection. Colorado's top court previously concluded the 14th Amendment's ‘insurrectionist ban’ applies to Trump, therefore making him ineligible for office. According to a CNN poll, views of Trump's efforts to remain president following the 2020 election remain effectively unchanged since the public hearings on his role in the Capitol riot: 45% say he acted illegally, 32% unethically, and 23% that he did nothing wrong at all.” [CNN]
Immigration
“A major bipartisan border deal and foreign aid package appears on track to fail in the Senate later this week amid relentless attacks from former President Trump and top House Republicans. The grim odds facing the bill have also put aid to Ukraine and Israel, two key US allies, in jeopardy. Speaker Mike Johnson said that the House will vote this week on a standalone bill providing aid for Israel, ratcheting up pressure on senators to abandon their efforts to keep Israel aid linked with other issues, including the crisis at the US-southern border. But President Joe Biden would veto a standalone aid package for Israel, the White House said, calling the bill a ‘cynical political maneuver.’” [CNN]
President Joe Biden at No. 1 Boba Tea in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)
POLITICS
Nevada will hold presidential primaries and caucuses, creating voter confusion but little suspense
“The presidential primary campaign heads west to Nevada this week, where dueling caucuses and primaries are creating confusion among voters but little uncertainty about the expected results. Read more.
Key points:
Nikki Haley will run in Tuesday’s Republican primary, which won’t count for the GOP nomination, while Donald Trump is the only major candidate in Thursday’s Republican caucuses, which does. Haley rejected the caucuses as unfair and set up by the state party to deliver a victory for the former president.
The split races have effectively relegated the third state on the GOP calendar to national irrelevance. But Trump’s campaign advisers see the primary as an opportunity to test-drive their general election operation.
There will also be a Democratic primary on Tuesday that President Joe Biden is expected to easily win. Though the president faces little danger of losing the primary, he campaigned in the Western state Sunday and Monday to start energizing voters ahead of November, when Nevada will be a key swing state.” [AP News]
Maui police release 98-page report on Lahaina wildfire response
“About six months since wildfires devastated the coastal town of Lahaina, the Maui Police Department released an exhaustive 98-page preliminary report on its response to one of the deadliest wildfires in American history. The police department concluded the flames were caused by severe weather, and the winds that fanned the fires created a domino effect of chaos for police. Despite remaining questions and criticism over the cause of the fires and what, or who may have exacerbated them, the Maui Police Department's investigation solely focused on its response.” Read more at USA Today
US Rep. Lauren Boebert granted temporary restraining order against her ex-husband
“Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert now has a temporary restraining order against ex-husband Jayson Boebert, after accusing him of threatening to harm her and entering the family’s home without permission.” Read More at AP News
Israel says it's getting closer to Hamas leader
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné (right) in Jerusalem today. Photo: Gil Cohen-Magen/Pool via Getty Images
“The Israeli military believes it's making progress in its hunt for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Israeli defense officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
Why it matters: The war in Gaza ‘must not end’ until Hamas' leadership there has been killed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today — just as Secretary of State Tony Blinken arrived in the region to build support for a temporary ceasefire.
Hamas hasn't yet responded to Israel's offer to pause fighting for two months in exchange for the return of all remaining hostages.
Blinken is lobbying other Middle Eastern leaders to support that proposal.
Hamas' slow response may be a result of its leaders frequently moving locations, making it harder to communicate and coordinate, Israeli officials said.
Israeli intelligence believes Sinwar and other Hamas leaders have been hiding in the city of Khan Younis since the early stages of the war.
Special units in the Israel Defense Forces have been operating in the tunnels in Khan Younis for several weeks in an attempt to catch the Hamas leaders. They've now taken control of much of that tunnel network, Israeli officials said.” [Axios]
Israel is quietly pushing the U.S. and U.N. to allow a controversial U.N. agency to continue providing humanitarian aid to Gaza—for now.
“It wants the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, which had some of its staff linked to the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, reformed or abolished after the war, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. The U.S. broadly agreed that the agency needed reform, and that for now there was no alternative to get aid to millions of Palestinian refugees in Gaza, according to U.S. officials familiar with the meetings. More than 10 countries, including the U.S., have suspended funding Unrwa, pending a U.N. investigation. Israeli also alleges that some 10% of the agency’s staff have an affiliation with Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that the U.S. and EU have designated a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, Iran-backed groups continued to target American bases as the U.S. planned further strikes.” [Wall Street Journal]
Washington’s Middle East Priorities
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken disembarks from a plane upon his arrival at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Feb. 5.Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/AFP
“U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on Monday to kick off his fifth trip to the Middle East since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. He met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for roughly two hours, during which the two men were expected to discuss ongoing efforts to secure a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas; plans for Gaza after the war ends; and potential Saudi normalization with Israel, among other issues. Blinken also plans to meet with leaders in Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank to push for the release of all remaining Israeli hostages and a humanitarian pause in Gaza. Negotiators are still waiting for Hamas to respond to a proposal for a six-week cease-fire that would include Israeli captives exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.
Among Blinken’s goals this week, he plans to reiterate that the White House does not seek to intensify a broader regional conflict, a senior State Department official said. However, these messages of de-escalation come after U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan promised on Sunday that Washington will continue to strike Iran-backed militias in retaliation for the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in a drone strike on a U.S. base in Jordan late last month. Last Friday, the United States bombed more than 85 Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria; on Saturday, the United States and United Kingdom followed that with strikes on 36 targets in Yemen connected to the Iran-backed Houthis.
No U.S. casualties have been reported in the Middle East since the Jan. 28 strike. However, at least six allied Kurdish fighters were killed in a drone attack in eastern Syria on Sunday at a base housing U.S. soldiers, the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said on Monday. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack. The United States also intercepted four anti-ship Houthi missiles from Yemen on Sunday that ‘presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region,’ U.S. Central Command said Monday.
Also over the weekend, U.S. Senate lawmakers on Sunday announced a bipartisan $118.3 billion deal that includes $14.1 billion for Israel and $2.44 billion for Red Sea security, as well as $60 billion for Ukraine and $20 billion for new restrictions at the southern border. The Senate is scheduled to hold its first procedural vote by Wednesday, but some conservatives have threatened to reject the proposal. Senior Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, said that even if the bill passes the Senate, it will be ‘DEAD on arrival’ in the House of Representatives. The House unveiled a separate $17.6 billion military assistance package for Israel on Saturday that is not attached to Ukraine aid.” [Foreign Policy]
The World This Week
“Tuesday, Feb. 6: French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné visits Lebanon.
Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide concludes a two-day visit to China.
Wednesday, Feb. 7: Azerbaijan holds snap presidential elections.
Thursday, Feb. 8: Pakistan holds parliamentary elections.
Blinken concludes a U.S. diplomatic mission in the Middle East.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers a state of the nation address.
Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape addresses the Australian Parliament.
Friday, Feb. 9: Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House.
Sunday, Feb. 11: Finland holds a presidential election runoff.
The United Kingdom and NATO begin joint exercise Agile Defender.” [Foreign Policy]
“‘World’s coolest dictator.’ Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele celebrated a landslide reelection win on Sunday, claiming to have won more than 85 percent of the vote before official results were announced. His New Ideas party is also expected to win almost all of the Legislative Assembly’s 60 seats, consolidating Bukele’s control and making him El Salvador’s most powerful leader in modern history.
‘This will be the first time where one party rules a country in a completely democratic system,’ Bukele told a crowd of supporters on Sunday. ‘The entire opposition has been pulverized.’
El Salvador was once one of the world’s most dangerous countries, having the highest murder rate globally. Now, it boasts the highest incarceration rate. Bukele, the self-described ‘world’s coolest dictator,’ earned his popularity by cracking down on the nation’s homicide and gang crises. In just under two years, his administration arrested more than 75,000 people, or around 1 percent of the total population. However, human rights groups have raised concerns that the government’s actions may be violating detainees’ right to a fair trial and, as of July 2023, had documented more than 3,000 cases of arbitrary and indefinite detention.
Bukele’s reelection and his party’s success in the legislative election has some experts worried that he will use his power to further encroach on the nation’s civil liberties and erode democratic norms.” [Foreign Policy]
“Election crisis. Senegal’s parliament convened on Monday to debate outgoing President Macky Sall’s call on Saturday to postpone presidential elections. If approved by three-fifths of lawmakers, a vote previously scheduled for Feb. 25 could be pushed back by up to six months. Sall is not set to run for reelection.
The Senegalese president said he seeks a delayed vote to discuss the disputed candidate list, which bars two politicians from running, as well as alleged corruption within the Constitutional Court. However, some Senegalese accused Sall of trying to extend his term indefinitely. Riot police disbanded violent protesters gathered outside the nation’s parliament building on Monday, and mobile internet access was restricted to quell so-called threats to public order.” [Foreign Policy]
“Moment of silence. Chile began two days of mourning on Monday after wildfires decimated entire neighborhoods in the central city of Viña del Mar, killing at least 112 people and damaging around 14,000 homes. Around 165 blazes remain active, Deputy Interior Minister Manuel Monsalve said on Sunday. This is Chile’s deadliest wildfire in recent history.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric deployed the military to help firefighters battle the flames, and the government imposed a curfew on some of the nation’s hardest-hit areas. ‘We are facing a tragedy of very great magnitude,’ he said, adding that the death toll is expected to rise. Hundreds of people remain missing in and around the city.” [Foreign Policy]
“The risk indicators for China invading Taiwan at some point in the future ‘are blinking red,’ Michael Beckley and Hal Brands argue in Foreign Policy. One such indicator is China’s increased military spending. Beijing spent $298 billion in 2022 on warships, missiles, and other military investments—$274.3 billion more than it spent just 32 years ago, adjusted for inflation. By 2030, the authors write, China’s nuclear arsenal could rival that of the United States. As Beijing’s missile capabilities grow, ‘it is no longer clear that the Pentagon could immediately respond to, let alone defeat, a Chinese assault on Taiwan.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Given the close U.S.-Japan relationship, the Japanese Embassy in the United States has many important diplomatic matters to attend to—including, apparently, whether Taylor Swift will be able to make it back to the United States from her tour in Japan in time to see her boyfriend, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, play in the Super Bowl. Fear not: According to an official statement that the embassy put out last Friday, if the pop star leaves her Eras Tour show in Tokyo by the evening of Feb. 10, she should land in Las Vegas before Super Bowl LVIII kicks off that same night. No word from the embassy, though, on another burning question many gamblers are wagering on: whether Kelce will propose during the big game.” [Foreign Policy]
“A $7 trillion stock rout. The worst deflation in decades. Mounting geopolitical threats.
The headaches aren’t going away for Chinese President Xi Jinping. The nation’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong is overseeing an economy that in recent years has lurched from one crisis to another, unable to shake fears of a slowdown in growth.
Battered equity markets have become the most acute symbol of crushed confidence within the world’s second-largest economy. In recent weeks, the market capitalization of China’s stocks has plunged to near four-year lows amid slumping valuations.
Xi seems to be getting personally involved in the rescue efforts, with Bloomberg News reporting that regulators plan to brief the president. It’s not yet clear whether any new support will come out of that meeting.
Beijing surely wants to project a sense of control of the situation as it tries to convince investors to regain their confidence. That’s a hard feat to pull off, especially given none of the piecemeal measures to boost sentiment so far — trade restrictions, curbs on short selling — have moved the needle.
That also goes for all of the steps policymakers have taken to boost the broader economy, whether in the form of policy rate cuts, other monetary easing or fiscal stimulus. It’s a sign of how deep China’s economic woes run, particularly in the beleaguered property sector.
That’s not great news for Xi, whose consolidation of power has left him with all of the vulnerabilities attached to one-man rule.
He’s the one in charge at a time when many Chinese, particularly younger generations, are experiencing the first prolonged economic slowdown of their lifetimes.” — Jill Disis [Bloomberg]
Customers at a food stall in Shenzhen on Jan. 18. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
“The Baltic states are growing more wary of an emboldened Russia with imperialistic ambitions following the invasion of Ukraine. While membership of the European Union and NATO helped blunt intimidation by Moscow, the war changed the equation for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and created the sense that a new threat is emerging from Moscow.” [Bloomberg]
Signs protesting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine outside the Russian Embassy in Tallinn, Estonia. Photographer: Peter Kollanyi/Bloomberg
“Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s PTI party is absent as roughly 129 million voters go to the polls on Thursday with the political landscape drastically changed from the last election in 2018. As Betsy Joles writes, his supporters remain defiant as the one-time cricket star sits in jail and another former premier, Nawaz Sharif, is the favorite to take power.” [Bloomberg]
“Prabowo Subianto is reaping rewards of an extensive image makeover, and his odds have never looked better to become Indonesia’s president in Feb. 14 elections. The former general, who was dismissed for alleged human rights abuses and banned from the US for two decades, is known for fiery nationalist speeches. Over the past few months, helped by a social media campaign that features his cats and dance videos, the 72-year-old has tried to come off as a cuddly grandpa.” [Bloomberg]
February 6, 2024
With many congressional Republicans opposed to a bill that would send more aid to Ukraine, my colleague Julian Barnes uses today’s newsletter to help you understand the state of the war and what may happen next. — David Leonhardt
The Donetsk region last month. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
Peace in Ukraine
“Last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensive was a failure. Russia’s defenses in the territory it has captured look impenetrable. Republicans in Washington are blocking further Ukraine aid. President Volodymyr Zelensky is on the precipice of firing his top general — who may well become his chief political rival.
It’s a difficult moment for Ukraine. And another year of frontal assaults on the trench lines could make 2024 look like 1916, a year in World War I that brought harrowing loss of life but few battlefield gains.
The question now is what Ukraine can reasonably still hope to achieve. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain what a negotiated settlement might look like — whenever it comes — and what a better and worse version might look like. It’s still possible that either Ukraine or Russia will mount a more successful military drive this year than experts expect. But the most likely outcome of this year’s fighting is a continued stalemate. That impasse will shape how the war ends.
A bleak picture
Ukraine wants all its territory back. That is not likely to happen.
Ukrainians believe in their ability to fight back. They defended Kyiv, retook Kherson and pushed Russia away from Kharkiv in 2022. Their military is more battle-hardened than anything else in Europe, made more sophisticated by its adoption of American and allied technology. They have avoided the worst outcome: an outright defeat, an overthrow of their democratic government, the installation of a Russian puppet. Many Ukrainians now believe concessions to Russia would mean their compatriots had died in vain.
But the situation is grim. The country has lost nearly one-fifth of its territory. In 2014, Russia took Crimea and orchestrated a separatist rebellion in parts of the Donbas. It grabbed the rest since the current phase of the war began in 2022.
Source: Institute for the Study of War | Map is as of Feb. 4, 2024. | By The New York Times
Ukraine has lost a generation of young men — killed and wounded — to the war. It is also running out of ammunition, supplies and equipment. While Europe just approved $54 billion in economic assistance, it is American money that delivers Kyiv’s military might. But most House Republicans now oppose further Ukraine aid. And even pro-Ukraine Republicans are asking Biden administration officials what strategy can break the current battlefield stalemate. Meanwhile, the funding is ensnared in a border policy debate.
If Ukraine can’t get what it needs to beat Russia, what kind of deal could it make?
Ukraine’s futures
Vladimir Putin may accept a peace deal that gives him the territory he occupies now and that forces Ukraine to stay neutral, halting its integration with Europe. Ukrainians call this bargain a capitulation. But without additional American aid, they may be forced to take it.
A better deal for Ukraine would give it back at least some of its land, plus a promise that the United States and Europe would help defend it against Russia. Perhaps then Putin would think twice about further attacks. In this scenario, Ukraine might not join NATO or the European Union immediately, the prospect of which helped drive Russia’s invasion in the first place.
But to make that deal possible, Ukraine would need a stronger military to erode Russia’s might. The Russian Army has been damaged, its most advanced weaponry lost, its modernization drive set back years. If the proposed $60 billion U.S. aid package ever comes through, it could enable more audacious Ukrainian strikes behind Russian lines — the kinds of operations that keep Moscow off balance.
The money from Congress, in short, could be the difference between a bad deal and a better one. Having it would strengthen Ukraine’s hand at the negotiating table. Without it, Putin may prove right in his theory that he can outlast the West.” [New York Times]
Cookie inflation
Photo: Francine Orr/L.A. Times via Getty Images
“A box of Girl Scout cookies will be more expensive this year in many parts of the country, the N.Y. Times reports.
Some troops are raising their prices from $5 to $7. Others have pursued smaller hikes.
How it works: About $3.73 out of a $6 box of cookies goes to packaging, shipping, credit card fees and local Girl Scout councils, per The Times.
Another $1.29 goes to the company that bakes the cookies — leaving only about 75 cents to $1.35 for the troop that's selling them. Some are worried that price increases will hurt sales.” [Axios]
Rest in peace, Toby Keith
“Country singer-songwriter Toby Keith, who was battling stomach cancer, passed peacefully on Monday surrounded by his family. He was 62. the 6-foot-4 singer broke out in the country boom years of the 1990s, crafting an identity around his macho, pro-American swagger and writing songs that fans loved to hear. Over his career he publicly clashed with other celebrities and journalists and often pushed back against record executives who wanted to smooth his rough edges.” Read more at USA Today
Toby Keith performs onstage.
Tom Donahue, FOX