The Full Belmonte, 2/28/2024
“Former President Donald Trump handily defeated Nikki Haley last night in Michigan's Republican primary. President Biden won his contest as well — but division remains among the state's Democratic electorate. More than 100,000 people cast ‘uncommitted’ votes to protest Biden's handling of the war in Gaza. The turnout exceeded the 10,000 vote goal set by Listen to Michigan, a group that wants Biden to call for an immediate cease-fire and stop sending U.S. aid to Israel.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
It's common to see several thousand uncommitted votes on a primary, NPR's Elena Moore tells Up First. But Michigan Rep. Abraham Aiyash tells her this moment is different because anyone who voted uncommitted last night ‘came out with the intention of sending the message that we do not want a party that is led with a lack of humanity for the Palestinian people.’ Moore says last night was the first big test for gauging how voter attitudes toward Biden’s Gaza policy could impact outcomes.
Though their preferred parties and policy concerns may differ, many metro Detroit voters tell Morning Edition they're feeling disillusioned and unmotivated to vote come November. Here's why.” [NPR]
Michigan's red flags for Biden, Trump
A voter in Dearborn, Mich., yesterday. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
“President Biden's quick win in yesterday's Michigan Democratic primary (81% to 13% for "uncommitted") nevertheless revealed his vulnerability in a crucial swing state that could decide the presidency in November.
Why it matters: Arab American and young voters — key to Biden winning Michigan in 2020 — turned out by the tens of thousands. Not for Biden — but for "uncommitted," writes David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics.
The protest vote, driven by anger over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, drew more than 100,000 votes — several times more than organizers expected.
Other Michigan takeaways:
Biden has other problems: There was a jarring enthusiasm gap between the Democratic and Republican primaries. Nearly 40% more people voted in the Republican primary than in the Democratic contest. Former President Trump, who once again defeated Nikki Haley (68% to 27%), got about the same number of votes on the GOP side as the Democrats' total.
Trump's warning: That surge in GOP voters was driven in part by about 27% of Republicans voting for Haley. She keeps getting support that's not nearly enough to win the Republican nomination — but enough to show a sizable chunk of the GOP may never be on board with Trump.
Not a great night for Dean Phillips, a Minnesota Democrat who gave up his House seat last October to run for president. Michigan feels like the end of the road. Phillips finished fourth — behind Biden, ‘uncommitted,’ and Marianne Williamson, an author and spiritual leader.” [Axios]
Congress has three days to avert a government shutdown.
“What’s happening? A partial shutdown will begin at 12:01 a.m. Saturday if lawmakers don’t pass new funding legislation. It would impact key services and thousands of federal workers.
The latest: Congressional leaders sounded optimistic about a deal yesterday. But lawmakers are struggling to agree on sending more aid to fund Ukraine’s war with Russia.”
Read this story at Washington Post
The Supreme Court will consider whether a ban on bump stocks is legal.
“What are they? Devices that modify semiautomatic rifles to fire hundreds of bullets per minute. Trump moved to ban them after a shooter killed dozens of people in Las Vegas in 2017.
Today: The court will hear arguments about whether federal officials correctly classified bump stocks as machine guns, which have been prohibited by federal law since 1986.”
Read this story at Washington Post
The historic moon mission will end early.
The Odysseus lunar lander over the south pole region of the Moon. (Intuitive Machines via AP)
“Why? The Odysseus spacecraft, which last week became the first U.S. vehicle to land on the moon since 1972, is dying on its side after coming in sideways and too fast.
It’s not all bad news: The mission was still a significant step in NASA’s quest to send humans back to the moon. And Odysseus managed to send back some scientific data.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Hunter Biden aims for clear rebuke of House GOP impeachment inquiry
“Hunter Biden used his private Wednesday testimony before House investigators to deliver a blistering rebuke of Republicans’ investigation into his father, President Joe Biden.
The president’s son is meeting with members and aides on the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees as part of Republicans sweeping impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden, which has largely focused on the business deals of his family.”
Read the latest at POLITICO
“Republican lawmakers in Alabama have introduced two bills aimed at protecting in vitro fertilization in the state. Both bills seek immunity from civil and criminal liability for providers of IVF goods and services. They were introduced after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled last week that frozen embryos should be legally considered children.
At least six states currently have bills that would allow women to seek child support for fetuses. Lawmakers in Colorado and Iowa proposed bills that define personhood as beginning at fertilization when it comes to homicide and wrongful death cases. While these bills don't explicitly mention IVF, reproductive rights advocates tell NPR's Ryland Barton that even granting limited protections to embryos has broader implications, like in Alabama.” [NPR]
Immigration
“President Biden and Donald Trump are set to visit the US-Mexico border on the same day this week. During Biden's visit Thursday, the president is expected to meet with border patrol agents, law enforcement and local leaders in Brownsville, Texas, to discuss the need for a border agreement. Sources say Biden is considering sweeping executive action to restrict the ability of migrants to seek asylum at the border if they cross illegally. At the same time, Trump is expected to give remarks in Eagle Pass, Texas, after recently receiving the endorsement of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has taken steps to undermine Biden's authority on border policy.” [CNN]
Texas wildfire burns 500,000 acres, second-largest in state history
READ FULL STORY→ USA Today
The US Army is slashing thousands of posts in a major revamp to prepare for future wars
“The U.S. Army is slashing the size of its force by about 24,000, almost 5%, and restructuring to be better able to fight the next major war as the service struggles with recruiting shortfalls. Read more.
Why this matters:
The plan will add about 7,500 troops in other critical missions, including air-defense and counter-drone units, and five new task forces around the world with enhanced cyber, intelligence and long-range strike capabilities. The cuts will mainly be to posts that are already empty, rather than actual soldiers.
The changes represent a significant shift for the Army to prepare for large-scale combat operations against more sophisticated enemies. But they also underscore the steep recruiting challenges that all military services are facing.” [AP News]
Indiana blocks world’s top sex research center from state funds: ‘a scary moment for academic freedom’
What happens to Kinsey Institute may signal if conservative US lawmakers can dictate the bounds of research on sexuality
“The future of the Kinsey Institute, the world’s premier sex research center, is in limbo.
Last April, lawmakers in Indiana’s Republican-dominated state legislature voted to block the Kinsey Institute from receiving any state funds through Indiana University (IU), which houses the institute. Its researchers have spent the months since scrambling to figure out what this means for their work – and Indiana University, they say, has largely left them out of the discussion.
The outcome of the skirmish over the Kinsey Institute and Indiana University will signal whether conservative lawmakers can dictate the bounds of academic research into human sexuality, at a time when far-right politicians are rushing to exert unprecedented control over what is taught in schools and universities around the country….” Read more at The Guardian
Middle East
“Israel, Hamas, and Qatar have cautioned against President Biden's optimism that a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached by the end of this week. Biden said Monday that he hoped there would be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict by ‘next Monday,’ as the death toll in Gaza approaches 30,000. But an Israeli official told CNN Tuesday that Israel was ‘surprised that he [Biden] used the word Monday and that he used the word ceasefire.’ Basem Naim, a member of Hamas' political bureau, told CNN Tuesday that the group was unaware of any ceasefire agreement that could be brokered by next Monday. ‘There is nothing,’ Naim said. Qatar, which along with the US is a key mediator in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, has also hinted at a different timeline.” [CNN]
Navalny's widow addresses EU lawmakers
Yulia Navalnaya has vowed to continue her husband's work to fight for a "free Russia". Credit: EPA
“In the days following her husband Alexei Navalny's death in a Russian prison colony on 16 February, Yulia Navalnaya has picked up his mantle as a prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin. Speaking to European lawmakers and students from across the continent in Strasbourg, Ms Navalnaya called on countries to treat the Russian president as the leader of a criminal organisation, using the legal tools at their disposal. Ahead of her speech, Mr Navalny's spokesperson announced that the activist's body would be buried at a cemetery in Moscow on Friday, two weeks before the start of Russia's presidential election, where Mr Putin is set to win another six-year term. Ms Navalnaya addressed the feeling that ‘Putin cannot be defeated at all’, channelling her husband in saying: ‘If you want to defeat Putin you have to become an innovator. You have to stop being boring.’ Follow reaction to her speech on our live page.
•Jailed Russian activist: Oleg Orlov, co-chair of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning organisation Memorial, was sent to prison for two and a half years.
•Ksenia Karelina: The boyfriend of the US-Russian citizen detained in Russia on suspicion of treason has called on the US government to help bring her home.
•Espionage: A sixth person has been charged with being part of a suspected Russian spy ring operating in the UK.” [BBC]
“Striking doctors given ultimatum. Seoul gave South Korean junior doctors four days on Monday to end their walkout or else the government said it would impose severe professional repercussions on the protesters. These could include legal action and a minimum three-month suspension of medical licenses. If South Korea imposes a back-to-work order, then any doctors who fail to follow through could face prison time of up to three years and have their licenses permanently revoked.
Nearly 9,000 residents and interns went on strike on Feb. 20 to protest a government decision to increase the number of students admitted into medical schools. Seoul argued that the move is necessary to meet the needs of the nation’s rapidly aging population and address low doctor-to-patient ratios. However, health workers have said insufficient pay, long hours, and increased competition will only worsen under the new policy.” [Foreign Policy]
“Dengue outbreak threat. Peru declared a health emergency in 20 of its 25 regions on Monday to combat rising dengue cases. The disease, spread by mosquitos, has already killed at least 32 people in Peru this year—roughly twice as high as the same period last year. According to Peru’s health ministry, more than 31,000 cases have been recorded in 2024 thus far.
A dengue outbreak is ‘imminent,’ Peruvian Health Minister César Vásquez said, with heat waves and heavy rains worsening the situation. Last year, 428 Peruvians died from dengue and nearly 270,000 others were infected, according to official data.” [Foreign Policy]
“Central bankers usually stay out of politics, and for good reason.
For starters, they like politicians to stay out of central banking. More importantly, they need those politicians — and their promise of institutional independence — to serve as a buffer against voters.
Now all that has started to change.
As Jana Randow writes, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, a former French finance minister, broke the taboo by warning about the dangers of a US election win for Donald Trump.
Bundesbank board member Sabine Mauderer arguably went further when she appeared at an anti-extremist rally in Frankfurt. The German central bank’s president, Joachim Nagel, and ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel, who is also German, have joined similar demonstrations as the establishment wrestles with the rise in support for the far-right AfD.
The spread of extremism poses a challenge to such institutions in many countries: How far should they veer from political neutrality in the face of policies they consider a threat to their economies — or simply just objectionable?
With Trump accused of inciting a coup attempt in 2021 rather than cede power, opponents including in the Republican Party warn he’s a danger to US democracy.
Germany’s AfD, which has discussed the mass deportation of migrants, consistently polls above 20% nationally even as critics warn its rise carries parallels with the Nazis in the 1930s.
That level of support, which climbs above 30% in eastern Germany, makes it more complicated for institutions like the Bundesbank to argue they’re defending democracy.
As political fragmentation increases the influence of parties like the AfD, the danger for central bankers is that they get dragged into partisan battles to such an extent that it compromises their ability to deliver on their core job: keeping inflation in check. “— Ben Sills [Bloomberg]
A protest against the AfD outside the Reichstag in Berlin on Jan. 21. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg
“One in four people in Gaza, about 575,000 people, are on the verge of starvation, the United Nations said, warning the situation may deteriorate as Israel presses its offensive against Hamas. Besides the violence, aid deliveries are hindered by border closures, movement restrictions and ‘onerous’ vetting procedures by Israel, said Ramesh Rajasingham, coordination director of the UN’s humanitarian office.” [Bloomberg]
Palestinian children gather to receive food at a school in Rafah on Feb. 19. Photographer: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy discussed his peace formula for ending Russia’s invasion at talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh yesterday. While Zelenskiy said Saudi Arabia’s leadership ‘may help find fair solutions,’ there was no immediate sign of progress on a global summit Kyiv is seeking in support of his plan, which requires Russian forces to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory.” [Bloomberg]
“Armenia and Azerbaijan begin two days of peace talks hosted by Germany today aimed at resolving their decades-long conflict. The meeting in Berlin follows talks between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at this month’s Munich Security Conference. The South Caucasus neighbors have fought repeated wars over Nagorno-Karabakh since the Soviet Union collapsed more than three decades ago.” [Bloomberg]
“President Javier Milei’s prescription of shock therapy for Argentina’s crisis-prone economy looks to be at risk as opposition grows to his sweeping decree among regional representatives in the Senate. Governors of Argentina’s southern provinces are in an escalating dispute with the central government over the transfer of federal funds, and that’s spilling over into the upper house, where the proposal now faces a serious risk of being overturned next week.” [Bloomberg]
“Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will appear before a parliamentary ethics committee as he seeks to turn the page on a ruling party slush-fund scandal that has undermined his support months ahead of a leadership vote.” [Bloomberg]
“Political, religious and civic leaders in Senegal proposed holding presidential elections in June, a recommendation that aims at ending weeks of instability in the West African nation.” [Bloomberg]
“In a year when more than 50 countries are holding national elections, a new study shows the risks posed by the rise of artificial intelligence chatbots in disseminating false, misleading or harmful information to voters.” [Bloomberg]
No new viewers
Data: FactSet; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios
“No version of TV — not cable, not streaming, no one — is able to meaningfully grow an audience right now. There simply aren't many new viewers to be found, on any platform or through any means.
The chart above shows the stark decline in cable TV, which has been hemorrhaging viewers for years, with no end in sight.
Viewers ditched their expensive cable bundles in droves and fled to streaming — so you might expect that streaming services would be growing where cable is shrinking.
They're not. Take a look at the chart below. Subscriber churn, which includes cancellations and lapsed subscriptions, has nearly tripled in the U.S. in the past four years. Just about every major streaming service has plateaued and is now adding fewer net new subscribers each year.
Data: Antenna; Note: Excludes Free Tiers, MVPD + Telco Distribution, and select Bundles; Chart: Axios Visuals
There are only two winners right now — Netflix and live sports, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes.
Netflix has the lowest rate of subscriber churn of any major streamer, and it's one of the few companies that isn't saddled with debt from big mergers or dead weight from linear TV.
Sports, meanwhile, is the only thing that can draw a big crowd anymore, and paying for the rights to live sports may be cable companies' best/only hope to hang on to more of their customers.” [Axios]
Home prices hit new record
Data: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ; Chart: Axios Visuals
“Housing in major U.S. cities is as expensive as it's ever been, Axios Markets co-author Emily Peck writes from new data that tracks home prices in 20 metro areas.
That index hit a new high in December when a modest and temporary drop in interest rates coaxed more buyers into the market. It was the seventh straight month of increases.
What's next: If rates do come down later this year, there's clearly a reservoir of pent-up demand that will keep prices high.” [Axios]
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Macy's plans to close about 30% of its stores and lean more heavily on high-end brands. Go deeper.” [Axios]
“CNN will pay Don Lemon almost $25 million to leave the network, The Wrap reports.” [Axios]
“Apple is canceling its highly ambitious, decade-long effort to develop an electric car and will focus on AI instead, Bloomberg reports.” [Axios]
Wendy's plans surge pricing
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Wendy's is planning to implement surge pricing — charging higher prices at times when demand is high, similar to ride-sharing services, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.
It's part of a larger effort to create a more ‘dynamic’ ordering process, the company said.
In addition to surge pricing, Wendy's is planning new menu displays that will suggest certain items based on factors like the weather. It's also been working on ways to automate its drive-thrus and use chatbots for ordering.
The changes will roll out next year, the company said.” [Axios]
“Mary Poppins” Silver Screen Collection/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
“The British film authorities raised the rating of “Mary Poppins” to PG because it contains racist language.” [New York Times]
“A jury in New York found two men guilty in the 2002 killing of Jam Master Jay, the D.J. of Run-DMC.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Bruce Newman oversaw Newel Galleries, a go-to destination in Manhattan for antique hunters with deep pockets. His customers included Jackie Kennedy and Barbra Streisand. He died at 94.” [New York Times]