The Full Belmonte, 2/27/2024
Palestinians line up for food in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Feb. 23. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
Israel is ready to pause its war in Gaza during Ramadan if a hostage deal is reached, Biden says
“President Joe Biden said Israel would be willing to pause its war on Hamas in Gaza during the upcoming Muslim fasting month of Ramadan if a deal is reached to release some of the hostages held by the militants. Read more.
Key developments:
Negotiators from the U.S., Egypt and Qatar are working on a framework deal under which Hamas would free some of the dozens of hostages it holds, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and a six-week halt in fighting. The pause would also include allowing hundreds of trucks to deliver desperately needed aid into Gaza.
There is an unofficial deadline of the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan around March 10, a period that often sees heightened Israeli-Palestinian tensions.
There was no immediate Israeli reaction to Biden’s comments and a Hamas official played down any sense of progress, saying the group wouldn't soften its demands. At the same time, Biden did not call for an end to the war, leaving open the door to an eventual Israeli ground offensive in the city of Rafah in southern Gaza.” [AP News]
Biden is urgently working to avoid a government shutdown and stalling of international aid
“President Joe Biden is expected to press lawmakers on passing emergency aid to Ukraine and Israel, as well as averting a looming government shutdown next month, according to a White House official. Read more.
Recent developments:
The Republican-led House is under pressure to pass the $95 billion national security package. That legislation cleared the Senate on a 70-29 vote earlier this month, but has since stalled.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to bring the foreign aid bill up for a vote because he says it lacks provisions to secure the U.S. southern border. But he did previously reject a bipartisan bill that provided immigration funding, saying that the border measures would not solve the problem in the way that he wanted.
The first tranche of government funding is due to expire Friday. Parts of the government could start to scale back operations unless a deal on spending and legislation is sent to Biden for his signature.” [AP News]
“Democratic and Republican voters in Michigan head to the primaries today. President Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to win their parties' nominations. Still, opponents of Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza are calling for Democrats to send a message by voting ‘uncommitted.’” [NPR]
Bloomberg via Getty Images
A campaign at the polls to pressure President Joe Biden.
House Speaker Mike Johnson walks to the House Chamber during a vote at the US Capitol this month. (Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/Reuters)
Government shutdown
“With less than four days to go until a key deadline to extend federal funding, Congress has initiated the formal process of preparing for a partial government shutdown. A bipartisan spending deal may soon be on the table, but high-level disagreements remain over aid to Ukraine and border security, among other policy issues. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is under immense pressure from his right flank to fight for conservative wins that are unlikely to be resolved quickly. The absence of a short-term deal by Friday means a set of departments will run out of money, comprising about 20% of the federal government. This would immediately impact the departments of Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, Veterans Affairs and Housing and Urban Development, as well as the FDA and priorities such as military construction.” [CNN]
Grocery prices
“Inflation may be cooling, but many Americans are spending more of their income on groceries than at any point over the past 30 years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Food prices remain much higher than before the pandemic and fresh vegetables are starting to come at a premium. The most notable price increase in produce aisles last month was for tomatoes, which cost 4.6% more than they did in January. Meanwhile, the US government on Monday sued to block a $25 billion deal between Kroger and Albertsons, alleging the largest supermarket merger in US history would drive costs even higher. The merger, announced in 2022, sought to combine dozens of chains, including Safeway, Vons, Harris Teeter and Fred Meyer.” [CNN]
Manhattan D.A. asks for gag order in Trump hush money case
“New York prosecutors are asking the judge in Donald Trump’s hush money case to impose a limited gag order barring the president from talking about witnesses and court staff ahead of his trial next month.
A spokesman for the Trump campaign said such an order would infringe on Trump’s First Amendment rights, calling it ‘election interference pure and simple.’
Trump is set to face off against Nikki Haley tomorrow in Michigan’s primary, fresh off his dominant win in Haley’s home state of South Carolina over the weekend.
We’re also learning that both President Joe Biden and former President Trump will make dueling trips to the U.S.-Mexico border on the same day this week.
On Thursday, Biden will travel to Brownsville, Texas, where he will meet with U.S. Border Patrol agents, law enforcement, and local leaders, the White House said in a statement. During his rare visit, Biden call on Republicans to stop blocking border legislation, the statement added.
Trump will also travel to Texas on Thursday, where he will give remarks at Eagle Pass, a city that’s become a flashpoint in the immigration battle, according to two sources familiar with Trump’s planning.” [NBC News]
U.S. airman dies after lighting himself on fire outside Israeli embassy
“An active-duty U.S. airman has died after lighting himself on fire outside the Israeli Embassy in Washington, D.C. in an apparent protest against the war in Gaza, according to military officials.
The airman has been identified by D.C.’s Metropolitan Police Department as 25-year-old Aaron Bushnell of San Antonio, Texas.
Bushnell, who livestreamed the disturbing incident, could be heard yelling ‘Free Palestine,’ and referring to Israel’s actions in Gaza as ‘genocide.’
The incident comes as Israel is moving forward with a plan to invade Gaza's southernmost city Rafah, while negotiators inch toward a new cease-fire deal to release hostages held by Hamas.” [NBC News]
Supreme Court hears free speech challenges to social media laws
“The Supreme Court hear arguments today in two cases that could dramatically transform the world of social media.
The cases involve Republican-backed laws in Florida and Texas that restrict social media platforms from moderating content.
Platforms like Facebook and YouTube contend the laws violate their right to free speech by limiting their ability to choose the content they wish to publish.
Many conservatives have argued that the level of content moderation on social media platforms, and decisions to ban certain figures, including former President Trump for a time, amounts to censorship.” [NBC News]
Matt Schruers (right), President and CEO of the Computer & Communications Industry Association, departs the Supreme Court today. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
“FREE SPEECH AND DEBATE — Texas and Florida laws attempting to restrict social media companies from removing certain posts and accounts came under scrutiny during arguments at the Supreme Court today.
After multiple tech companies removed former President Donald Trump from their platforms in the wake of Jan. 6, 2021, Florida made it illegal for social media platforms to bar candidates running for public office in the state from their platforms. Texas later passed a law prohibiting social media companies from taking down content related to politics.
The ruling — and how narrow or broad it turns out to be — could have a huge impact on how social media companies, which are largely left to their own devices by the government to do content moderation, are allowed to operate.
The two laws haven’t taken effect because of suits from two tech industry groups — NetChoice and the Computer & Communications Industry Association. And now, with the issue reaching the Supreme Court, each side is claiming the mantle of free speech: The tech industry groups, supported by the Biden administration, say it’s a social media company’s right under the First Amendment to select and present speech as they choose. Meanwhile, lawyers for Texas and Florida argued that these tech companies are in violation of the First Amendment because they are restricting speech.
To get a sense of the stakes and the state of play after a busy day at the high court, Nightly called up Rebecca Kern, a tech policy reporter for POLITICO who spent the day listening to oral arguments at the Supreme Court and has covered this story for months. This interview has been edited.
What are the two cases in front of the Supreme Court today, and why are they important?
They’re important because they could determine the future of how social media companies police online speech on their platforms. It all goes back to Jan. 6, 2021, and the major social media platforms banning then-President Donald Trump from their sites for violating their rules against incitement of violence. After that, Texas and Florida passed laws that would prevent social media platforms from banning politicians and from basically removing users’ viewpoints. Two tech trade groups sued to stop these laws from going into effect, saying these laws violate our First Amendment rights, because you can’t force companies to carry speech that breaks their own policies.
They’ve gone all the way up to the Supreme Court and they’d have a pretty big impact on how social media companies can act if they go into effect.
As you suggested in a story this afternoon, some of the justices were at least fairly skeptical of this state’s arguments. What did the oral arguments tell us?
I think the justices were largely pretty skeptical. They suggested that it is a violation of the First Amendment when a state compels speech. But in addition, some of the justices were suggesting that some of the provisions of these laws may be constitutional, so they were grappling with whether to block the laws in full or write an exemption that would send part of the question back to a lower court. In particular, some conservative justices suggested that it would make sense to uphold parts of the Florida law.
So it’s unclear how they’ll write their decision, but I think they outright did say that big social media companies like Facebook, Instagram, YouTube or X have the right to moderate content on their platforms.
Were there any moments that stood out to you from the oral arguments today?
We did hear from Justice Samuel Alito, who was asking lawyers for the tech companies to define content moderation and equating content moderation with censorship. So, some justices do still feel that conservatives continue to be censored on these platforms, and I don’t know if you’ll see them join the majority decision.
Paul Clement, who is defending the tech lobbyists, also said that if you force us to carry all speech, that means we’re going to have to carry ‘both sides’ — if there are posts that are advocating for suicide prevention, these platforms would have to carry posts that are pro-suicide as well, for example. He was drawing attention to the idea that the states didn’t necessarily understand the breadth of what they were doing when they were writing these laws.
On Sunday, you wrote for POLITICO that no matter the outcome of the case, in some sense, conservatives have already won. Can you explain that?
When these laws were passed in 2021, they were done so with a goal to re-platform Trump and punish the platforms for removing him. But in the last three years, the whole social media system has changed. It began with X when Elon Musk took over in Oct. 2022 and reinstated Trump pretty soon after, which put pressure on other platforms to follow suit, especially when Trump announced his candidacy.
So, if conservatives’ goals when passing these laws were to reinstate Trump and get more conservatives back on the platforms, they’ve already succeeded. I even talked with one of the state lawmakers involved in crafting the Florida legislation who said that we’re seeing less deplatforming of conservative voices than in 2021. We’ve also seen more conservative-friendly social media sites pop up. Some conservatives continue to argue, though, that censorship is still happening.
At the same time, a lot of these big platforms want to get further away from politics. In the last month, Meta announced that Threads and Instagram won’t be promoting political content. That doesn’t mean they’re going to ban politicians, but I think they just don’t want to be in the business of unnecessarily moderating political views if they don’t have to be.
So what does the future of content moderation look like, based on the legal questions at the Supreme Court and other political ones?
It’s still a little unclear how a ruling will look, but I do think we have some sense from today’s oral arguments that there will be a more narrow ruling saying these laws do violate the First Amendment, but that these platforms don’t have full reign on not being regulated at all. Even the Solicitor General on behalf of the Biden administration [who submitted a brief supporting the tech companies’ case] argued today that there’s still ways to rein in these companies that aren’t in violation of the First Amendment.
This larger debate also isn’t over. There’s another Supreme Court case coming up on March 18 concerning whether or not the Biden administration coerces platforms to take down content. So we’ll be covering that as well.” [POLITICO]
Donald Trump appeals $454 million judgment in New York civil fraud case
“The former president’s lawyers filed notices of appeal Monday asking the state’s mid-level appeals court to overturn Judge Arthur Engoron’s Feb. 16 verdict in Attorney General Letitia James’ lawsuit and reverse staggering penalties that threaten to wipe out Trump’s cash reserves. Trump’s appeal won’t automatically halt enforcement of the judgment.” Read More at AP News
Florida lawmakers postponed a bill that would grant protections to fetuses.
“Why? Opponents raised concerns that it could affect IVF fertility treatments, as it did in Alabama after a court recently ruled that frozen embryos were children.
Zooming out: Some Republicans, including Trump, have voiced support for IVF following backlash to the Alabama ruling, which led to some IVF clinics suspending services.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Sweden’s NATO bid ratified by Hungary’s parliament, clearing the final obstacle to membership
“Hungary’s decision paves the way for the second expansion of NATO’s ranks in a year after both Sweden and Finland applied to join the alliance in May 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — an assault that was purportedly intended to prevent further NATO expansion.” Read More at AP News
Political Shake-Up
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh announces his resignation and calls for “new political measures” in the West Bank city of Ramallah on Feb. 26.Zain Jaafar/AFP
“Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh offered his resignation on Monday amid growing international calls for reform in the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank and which the United States and others in the international community would like to see govern a postwar Gaza as well.
‘The next stage and its challenges require new governmental and political arrangements that take into account the new reality in the Gaza Strip, the urgent need for an inter-Palestinian [national] consensus … and the extension of the [PA’s] authority over the entire territory of Palestine,’ Shtayyeh said during a cabinet meeting in Ramallah.
Shtayyeh has been in the position since 2019 and will continue to serve in a caretaker capacity until Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the PA’s top leader, selects a permanent replacement. Abbas is expected to choose economic advisor Mohammad Mustafa, the chair of the Palestine Investment Fund, who is thought to be a member of Abbas’s inner circle.
The leadership shake-up seems intended to send a signal that the PA is open to making changes to satisfy calls to reform that have come from the United States and others, but many are skeptical that Abbas will make the kinds of serious changes needed or loosen his grip on power. The region’s last legislative elections were held in 2006, with Abbas elected to a four-year term the year prior. With no functional parliament, Abbas rules by decree. The PA is largely seen as corrupt, and Abbas is deeply unpopular among Palestinians for working with the Israeli government to continue the West Bank’s highly unpopular status quo surrounding Israeli settlements and withheld tax payments, as well as for his and the PA’s failure to secure a Palestinian state.
Amid ongoing cease-fire talks, the United States and much of the international community have pushed for a two-state solution that would create a technocratic Palestinian government to oversee the West Bank and Gaza. The PA lost control of Gaza after Hamas came to power there in 2007, but leaders from both the militant group and the PA are due to meet in Moscow on Wednesday to discuss the war, including potential reunification.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly opposed a two-state solution and any postwar plan that gives the PA control of Gaza. After initially withdrawing Israel’s negotiators, though, Netanyahu sent a delegation to ongoing talks in Doha, Qatar, to discuss a proposed six-week truce that could potentially include the release of dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian officials as well as Hamas representatives were also in attendance, Egyptian state media reported on Sunday.
International pressure for ending the Israel-Hamas war reached new heights on Sunday when an active-duty U.S. Air Force service member set himself on fire outside the Israeli Embassy in Washington. Aaron Bushnell, 25, died from his injuries late Sunday. In a video of the protest posted on streaming platform Twitch, a man believed to be Bushnell says, ‘I will no longer be complicit in genocide,’ before lighting himself on fire and shouting ‘Free Palestine.’ U.S. officials are currently investigating the incident. No staff members at the Israeli Embassy were hurt.” [Foreign Policy]
The World This Week
“Tuesday, Feb. 27: Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani begins a two-day visit to France.
Finance ministers in the so-called BRICS bloc meet in Brazil.
Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala hosts his counterparts from Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.
Israel holds municipal elections except in areas near Gaza and Lebanon.
Wednesday, Feb. 28: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosts his counterparts from Mexico and Guatemala.
Caribbean Community heads of government gather in Guyana for their 46th summit.
Thursday, Feb. 29: Blinken hosts Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom.
Friday, March 1: U.S. President Joe Biden hosts Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines holds the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States’ eighth summit.
Iran holds parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections.
Saturday, March 2: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts Meloni.
Sunday, March 3: Switzerland holds its quarterly referendum.
Monday, March 4: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts a special meeting with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.” [Foreign Policy]
“Closing the Nord Stream case. Denmark closed its investigation on Monday into the September 2022 explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines. Copenhagen police said the attack appeared to be ‘deliberate sabotage’; however, the department added that it lacked sufficient evidence to pursue a criminal case in Denmark. Sweden dropped its own investigation into the blasts earlier this month, arguing that it no longer had jurisdiction. Stockholm handed its evidence to Germany to continue the case.
The pipelines, which carry Russian gas to Germany, ruptured in Sweden’s and Denmark’s exclusive economic zones. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denounced Copenhagen’s decision to stop investigating as ‘absurd,’ arguing that ‘on the one hand, they recognize that a deliberate sabotage took place, but on the other hand, they are not moving forward.’ Both Russia and Western governments have denied involvement in the attack.” [Foreign Policy]
“Unions take on censorship. At least two people were killed during a general strike in Guinea’s capital, Conakry, on Monday. A confederation of unions took to the streets to protest crackdowns on press freedom by the country’s ruling military junta, including the sentencing last Friday of Sékou Jamal Pendessa, the secretary-general of the Union of Press Professionals of Guinea.
In a surprise announcement last week, Guinea’s ruling military junta dissolved its transitional government without naming a reason and ordered the seizure of members’ passports. A military coup took control of Guinea in September 2021 and is expected to hold national elections by early 2025.” [Foreign Policy]
“At the COP28 climate summit in December, countries struck a historic deal, agreeing for the first time to shift away from fossil fuels. They also pledged to speed up their efforts “in this critical decade” to reach net zero by 2050.
That promise is being thrown into doubt as politicians in the US and across Europe backpedal on climate goals — sometimes vowing to jettison them altogether — ahead of elections this year.
On both sides of the Atlantic, voters are anxious about the cost of living, while green regulations are starting to affect the stuff of daily life — what cars people buy and how they heat their homes.
Sensing discontent, right-wing leaders including Donald Trump and Alice Weidel of Germany’s anti-immigrant AfD party have bashed climate policies as a costly waste. Both Trump and the AfD have a history of denying the scientific consensus that global warming is caused by humans.
But even parties with clear climate commitments are backtracking: In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives opposed expanding London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone, and he’s criticized ‘ideological zealots’ as he uses environmental action as a means of attacking the opposition Labour Party.
The global energy transition won’t screech to a halt if Trump becomes president again and hard-right parties gain ground in Europe. Trillions of dollars have been invested in the push already.
But the US and the European Union are the world’s second- and third-biggest emitters after China. If they were to pull back, it would signal to other countries that it’s okay to go slower — when science says the opposite.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that emissions cuts must be rapid and deep this decade if the world is to avoid calamitous levels of warming.
A few years of backsliding would leave a mark on the planet for much longer.” —Amanda Kolson Hurley [Bloomberg]
“The EU will aim to make as much as half of its defense system purchases within the bloc by 2035, reversing a trend of buying most military equipment from third countries, under draft proposals from its executive, Alberto Nardelli and Natalia Drozdiak report. At a summit in Paris yesterday, France and the Netherlands backed a Czech plan to buy ammunition outside Europe to accelerate aid to Ukraine.” [Bloomberg]
Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20. Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
“Vilified by the authorities as ‘hedonists’ over their lavish lifestyles, finance workers in China are rethinking their careers. President Xi Jinping’s ‘common prosperity’ drive is hitting bonuses and salaries while a corruption probe is unnerving the entire industry. This is adding to indications that Xi is shifting away from four decades of market-oriented reforms as he sets about building ‘a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics.’” [Bloomberg]
“In his first stint as Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva managed to satisfy both poorer voters and Wall Street investors with his economic stewardship, and so far he’s pulled off the same trick. The question, as Andrew Rosati and Maria Eloisa Capurro report, is whether he can maintain that balancing act as challenges mount through 2024.” [Bloomberg]
“Senegalese President Macky Sall has proposed an amnesty for protesters arrested since 2021, a move that could lead to the release of main opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, who’s been in detention for the past seven months for allegedly fueling deadly protests. Sall was commenting at the start of talks meant to end a political crisis and finalize a new date for delayed elections.” [Bloomberg]
“Hong Kong activists staged a small but rare public protest against their government’s decision to enact a domestic security law during a senior Chinese official’s visit to the Asian financial hub.” [Bloomberg]
“North Korea has shipped containers that could hold millions of artillery shells to Russia, a top South Korean official said, potentially helping Vladimir Putin to maintain his invasion of Ukraine as Kyiv’s stocks of ammunition dwindle.” [Bloomberg]
US sues to block merger of grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons, saying it could push prices higher
“The Federal Trade Commission sued to block a proposed merger between grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons, saying the $24.6 billion deal would eliminate competition and lead to higher prices for millions of Americans. Together, Kroger and Albertsons would control around 13% of the U.S. grocery market; Walmart controls 22%, according to J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman.” Read More at AP News
Chip boom
Data: YCharts. Chart: Axios Visuals
“AI chipmaker Nvidia topped $2 trillion in market cap on Friday, less than nine months after crossing the $1 trillion threshold.
Why it matters: AI-drunk investors have bid up Nvidia, whose advanced chips power AI systems, to bubble-like levels, Axios managing editor Scott Rosenberg writes.
How it happened: Nvidia's wild ride is propelled by demand for its graphics processors — which have turned out to be ideal not only for Bitcoin mining (which drove a previous wave of Nvidia mania), but also for the kind of number-crunching that ChatGPT and similar AI programs demand.
Plot twist: The lead story of today's Wall Street Journal reports that the shift toward chips for deploying AI systems — ‘inference’ work, as opposed to training — ‘threatens Nvidia's position because that work can be done with less-powerful and less-expensive chips.’
‘Many rivals believe they have a better shot in the AI market as chips for inferencing become more important.’” [Axios]
Sideways moon landing cuts mission short, private lunar lander expected to cease operations Tuesday
“Intuitive Machines, the Houston company that built and flew the spacecraft, said Monday it will continue to collect data until sunlight no longer shines on the solar panels. Based on the position of Earth and the moon, officials expect that to happen Tuesday morning.” Read More at AP News
Silent brain changes precede Alzheimer’s. Researchers have new clues about which ones come first
Alzheimer’s quietly ravages the brain long before symptoms appear and now scientists have new clues about the domino-like sequence of those changes — a potential window to one day intervene. Read more.
Key findings:
A large study in China tracked middle-aged and older adults for 20 years, using regular brain scans, spinal taps and other tests. People who eventually developed the disease had higher levels of an Alzheimer’s-linked protein in their spinal fluid 18 years prior to diagnosis, researchers reported.
Scientists still don’t know exactly how Alzheimer’s forms. One early hallmark is that sticky protein called beta-amyloid, which over time builds up into brain-clogging plaques.
The study’s importance “cannot be overstated,” said Dr. Richard Mayeux, an Alzheimer’s specialist at Columbia University. “Knowledge of the timing of these physiological events is critical” for testing new ways of treating and maybe eventually even preventing Alzheimer’s, he wrote in an accompanying editorial.” [AP News]
A Bronx medical school is making tuition free after a $1 billion donation.
The details: The Albert Einstein College of Medicine received the donation from Ruth Gottesman, whose late husband was a business partner of Warren Buffett.
It will change lives: Students erupted into claps and cheers when they were told the news yesterday. Tuition, about $60,000 a year, will be free starting in August.
Read this story at Washington Post