The Full Belmonte, 2/25/22
“KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia pressed its invasion of Ukraine to the outskirts of the capital Friday after unleashing airstrikes on cities and military bases and sending in troops and tanks from three sides in an attack that could rewrite the global post-Cold War security order.
Explosions sounded before dawn in Kyiv and gunfire was reported in several areas, as Western leaders scheduled an emergency meeting and Ukraine’s president pleaded for international help to fend off an attack that could topple his democratically elected government, cause massive casualties and ripple out damage to the global economy.
Among the signs that the Ukrainian capital was increasingly threatened, the military said Friday that a group of Russian spies and saboteurs was seen in a district on the outskirts of Kyiv, and police told people not to exit a subway station in the city center because there was gunfire in the area. Elsewhere in the capital, soldiers established defensive positions at bridges, and armored vehicles rolled down the streets, while many residents stood uneasily in doorways of their apartment buildings.” Read more at AP News
“Missiles pounded Kyiv today as Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded with the world to do more, saying sanctions announced so far were not enough, Reuters reports.
Air raid sirens wailed over the capital city of 3 million people. Some sheltered in underground metro stations.
Zelensky said in a video message that Russian troops are coming for him. But he vowed to stay in Kyiv.
The enemy, he said, "has marked me down as the Number 1 target. My family is the Number Two target. They want to destroy Ukraine politically by destroying the head of state."
Data: The New York Times, Reuters, Mapbox/OSCE. Map: Will Chase and Jared Whalen/Axios
“Being there: The military said today that a group of Russian spies and saboteurs was seen in a district on the outskirts of Kyiv, AP reports.
Police told people not to exit a subway station in the city center because there was gunfire in the area.
Ukraine servicemen on armored personnel carriers yesterday in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. Photo/Vadim Ghirda/AP
“Zoom out: Hillary Rodham Clinton and her longtime adviser Dan Schwerin write for The Atlantic today that Ukraine ‘is one flash point in a larger global struggle between democracy and autocracy ... that stretches from the steppes of Eastern Europe to the waters of the Indo-Pacific to the halls of the U.S. Capitol.’
‘Whether Putin continues testing NATO’s resolve, and whether the trajectory of our competition with China veers toward conflict, will in part be driven by Russian and Chinese perceptions of America’s decline or resilience,’ they write.” Read more at Axios
Photo: Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images
“Buildings around the world were lit last night in the colors of Ukraine's flag, including the Colosseum in Rome (above) ...
Photo: Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images
... 10 Downing Street in London, the prime minister's residence and office ...
Photo: Javad Parsa/NTB via AP
... and Oslo City Hall in Norway.
As Russian forces attack targets across Ukraine, commodity traders are watching the country’s vast network of infrastructure that’s key to supplying gas, crops and steel to Europe and beyond. Any disruption poses risks of shortages, and with commodity prices already around record highs, war in Ukraine will add to inflation pressure across the global economy.” Read more on Bloomberg
People trying to flee Kyiv by bus.Emile Ducke for The New York Times
“Partial measures
Western leaders have described the sanctions that they have imposed on Russia as ‘strong’ and ‘severe.’ And the sanctions will damage the Russian economy. After the U.S. and Britain announced new measures yesterday — making it harder for Russian companies to raise money or import goods — an index of Moscow’s stock market fell more than 30 percent.
But it’s also worth taking a look at the potential sanctions that the U.S., Britain and the European Union have chosen not to impose. They are almost certainly more severe than the sanctions going into effect. A full-scale diplomatic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could include:
Suspending Russia from international organizations, like the SWIFT network of banks (as Representative Adam Schiff, a California Democrat, suggested yesterday) and the Interpol network of law enforcement (as Garry Kasparov, the Russian opposition figure, has called for).
Seizing apartments, yachts and other assets owned by many members of the Russian elite in London, Miami and elsewhere, as Anne Applebaum of The Atlantic has suggested.
Cracking down on Vladimir Putin’s propaganda tools in the West, including the RT television network, and on people like Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor who now works for a Russian oil company.
Perhaps most significant, sharply reduce purchases of Russian oil and natural gas, by far the country’s largest source of revenue.
That the U.S. and its allies have chosen not to pursue a more aggressive path helps explain why Putin has been willing to take the enormous risk of starting the most significant war in Europe in 80 years. He believes that his enemies will respond in a limited way. Not only will they decline to send troops to Ukraine; they will fight only a limited economic and diplomatic battle, too.
This decision could change at some point, of course. For now, I want to help you understand why the Western response has been so limited.
A Ukrainian military aircraft was shot down near Kyiv.State Emergency Service/Via Reuters
Three reasons
1. Sanctions will hurt the West, too. ‘It’s very hard to get countries to sign up for truly tough sanctions against Russia,’ Michael Crowley, who covers the State Department for The Times, told me. ‘It comes at a cost to their own economies.’
Freezing out Russian banks could create problems for the global financial system. Hurting Russia’s energy industry would increase prices when inflation is already high and angering many Western workers. The effects would often be largest in the E.U., which may explain why European officials have often been more dovish on sanctions than American or British officials.
(Here’s an explainer about why the U.S. cannot unilaterally cut off Russia from the SWIFT financial network — and why some Europeans have reservations.)
‘The European Union is Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 37 percent of its global trade in 2020, and receives a third of its energy from Russia,’ my colleague Patricia Cohen wrote. ‘The flip side of mutual interest is mutual pain.’ Matina Stevis-Gridneff, The Times’s Brussels bureau chief, adds: ‘The reality is that many of the tougher sanctions are considered too onerous for Europe.’
One unknown is whether the ugly reality of war in Ukraine — as opposed to merely the prospect of it — will make Western leaders and citizens more willing to accept economic costs. If not, Putin’s gamble may have succeeded, which autocrats elsewhere will no doubt notice.
2. The West worried about closing off lines of communication. Western allies have started to impose more measures designed to hurt Russian oligarchs and top officials. But the sanctions have not yet targeted the very top officials, including Putin, nor have they cut off many Russian elites’ access to the West.
Anti-war protesters in St. Petersburg, Russia.Anton Vaganov/Reuters
The result, as Applebaum has written, is that much of Putin’s inner circle has felt insulated from sanctions (including those imposed after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014). Rather than seizing the assets of Russian elites and expelling their children from boarding schools and universities, the West has tried to negotiate. In effect, Applebaum argues, two sides in this battle are playing by different rules.
‘Western leaders and diplomats,’ she wrote, ‘think they live in a world where rules matter, where diplomatic protocol is useful, where polite speech is valued. All of them think that when they go to Russia, they are talking to people whose minds can be changed by argument or debate. They think the Russian elite cares about things like its ‘reputation.’ It does not.’
3. The West has wanted to move slowly — both to retain future options and to avoid aggravating the crisis.
As Matina reports, the E.U. is keeping some sanctions in reserve. Doing so will allow it to impose them if Putin later expands the war and will also keep open a channel of communication with the Kremlin, officials say. Critics of this approach, on the other hand, say it ‘gives the impression of proportionality to a completely outrageous move by Putin which should be met by shock and awe,’ Matina said.
For now, the critics are losing the debate.
Dmitri Alperovitch, an American technology executive born in Russia, argues that a full-on sanctions program would bring major risks, too. It could debilitate Russia’s economy and make Putin fear for his regime. Russia might hit back by restricting energy exports, to increase inflation and cause political instability in democracies. Russia could also launch cyberattacks.
‘This outcome — a hot conflict between two nuclear powers with extensive cyber capabilities — is one that everyone in the world should be anxious to avoid,’ Alperovitch wrote in The Economist. It’s a reminder that there are rarely easy answers once a war begins.” Read more at New York Times
Europe is bracing for what could be an exodus of more than a million refugees, as officials say any initial strain will be borne by member states on the bloc’s eastern frontier. The first point of escape would be Poland especially, already home to more than a million Ukrainians.
“Beijing’s dilemma | Chinese state media left Russia’s invasion of Ukraine off their front pages today as Beijing weighed its response, even as the outbreak of war in Europe dominated conversations on social media. The crisis poses a difficult question for China: How can it support a key strategic partner when relations with the U.S. and Europe are so much more important for its economy?
Taiwan’s president played down concerns that the invasion could trigger a similar crisis in Asia, warning against efforts to use the situation in Europe to sow panic.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Worried banks | International banks are talking publicly about how the business impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be limited. In private, they’re debating the chances of nuclear conflict. Read this exclusive report on how, despite months of warnings and scenario planning, Russian tanks crossing the border has left bankers scrambling.
The war could finally trigger a crackdown against the many Russians who anonymously own property in Britain after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would push forward long-stymied legislation to rip the veil off of ‘Russian assets hidden in the U.K.’” Read more at Bloomberg
“Nuclear fears | Ukraine has 15 atomic reactors operating near full capacity, with Russia’s invasion putting Europe’s second-biggest nuclear power system at potential risk. International Atomic Energy Agency monitors said yesterday they’re gravely concerned by the situation and remain in contact with Ukrainian regulators. It’s the first time war has been waged around a fleet of operating plants, which require steady water and electricity supplies.” Read more at Bloomberg
“From New York to London and as many as 40 cities across Russia, people gathered in groups numbering from the dozens to the thousands to protest against the invasion of Ukraine. Russian authorities reportedly detained more than 1,000 people, while social media feeds were filled with people from across the globe using the hashtag StandWithUkraine, urging leaders from China to Germany and Israel to take action.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Dissent in Russia. Demonstrations against the war took place in at least 47 cities across Russia on Thursday, no idle exercise in a country where space for civil protest is shrinking rapidly. The actions led to more than 1,700 arrests, according to a local rights group.
One hundred prominent journalists and foreign policy experts in Russia, many from the Kommersant newspaper, signed a letter condemning the invasion, saying it has ‘no justification.’
Despite the dissent, public opinion in Russia appears to lean toward the invasion. A CNN poll published on Feb. 23 found that 50 percent of respondents would support Russia using military force to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, just 25 percent of respondents said Russia shouldn’t.” Read more at Foreign Policy
Demonstrators march yesterday in Barcelona.
“Market rout | Russia’s invasion wiped out about $250 billion in Russian stock market value, forcing a second trading halt by the Moscow Exchange, and the ruble sank to a record low as investors braced for the toughest round of Western sanctions yet. The Bank of Russia said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time in years to tame volatility in financial markets.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Price shock | Oil’s surge past $105 a barrel for the first time since 2014 represents a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up inflation. As Enda Curran and Rich Miller report, that’s a worrying combination for the U.S. Fed and fellow central banks as they seek to contain the strongest price pressures in decades without derailing recoveries from the pandemic.” Read more at Bloomberg
“President Joe Biden has made a decision on his first nomination to the Supreme Court to replace retiring Justice Stephen Breyer, two sources told USA TODAY Thursday night. They declined to name the candidate. Biden's search has centered on U.S. Circuit Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, California Supreme Court Justice Leondra Kruger and U.S. District Judge J. Michelle Childs. The decision, first reported by CNN, could be revealed as soon as Friday. As a presidential candidate, Biden pledged to name a Black woman to the Supreme Court for the first time in history during a debate in South Carolina on Feb. 25, 2020 – two years ago. The decision comes as the window narrowed for Biden to meet a self-imposed deadline to announce his pick by the end of this month. Vice President Kamala Harris, whom the president said would play a key role in the search, postponed a scheduled visit to Louisiana set for Friday.” Read more at USA Today
“The Biden administration will significantly loosen federal mask-wearing guidelines to protect against COVID-19 transmission on Friday, two people familiar with the matter told the Associated Press, meaning most Americans will no longer be advised to wear masks in indoor public settings. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday will announce a change to the metrics it uses to determine whether to recommend face coverings, shifting from looking at COVID-19 case counts to a more holistic view of risk from the coronavirus to a community. Under current guidelines, masks are recommended for people residing in communities of substantial or high transmission — roughly 95% of U.S. counties, according to the latest data. The new metrics will still consider caseloads, but also take into account hospitalizations and local hospital capacity, which have been markedly improved during the emergence of the omicron variant.” Read more at USA Today
“At least 5.2 million children globally have lost a parent, grandparent or family caretaker to Covid-19, a new study says. The study, published yesterday in the medical journal The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, said this ‘heart-breaking hidden pandemic’ is nearing the total number of Covid-19 deaths, which currently stands at about 5.9 million people, according to latest World Health Organization totals. While plummeting Covid-19 case counts across the US are leading to a lifting of mask mandates, data shows more people are dying of Covid-19 now than during most points of the pandemic. More than 2,000 Covid-19 deaths have been reported in the US each day for the past month as the Omicron variant remains a heightened concern.” Read more at CNN
“Three former Minneapolis police officers were found guilty yesterday of violating George Floyd's civil rights. Jurors concluded the men showed deliberate indifference to Floyd’s medical needs as former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin knelt on Floyd for more than 9 minutes on May 25, 2020, killing him. The jurors also found two of the officers guilty of an additional charge for failing to intervene to stop Chauvin. According to the Department of Justice, violating a person’s civil rights ‘is punishable by a range of imprisonment up to a life term, or the death penalty, depending upon the circumstances of the crime, and the resulting injury, if any.’ Federal sentencing guidelines suggest the officers could receive a lesser sentence. The three men remain free on bond and are expected to start pre-sentencing proceedings next week.” Read more at CNN
“Gas prices were rising rapidly even before Russia's attack on Ukraine, but with the current shock to the oil market, $4 a gallon gas is now likely to be widespread across the country in a matter of weeks — if not sooner. The average price of a gallon of regular gas stood at $3.54 nationwide yesterday, according to figures collected from US gas stations. Wholesale gas prices jumped 5% in trading yesterday as oil futures topped $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Some experts say the jump in wholesale gas prices will likely be passed on to consumers within days. Some areas are already paying at or near $4 a gallon, and California leads the nation with prices averaging $4.77 per gallon.” Read more at CNN
“District attorneys representing five of Texas' largest counties said they will not treat gender-affirming procedures for transgender youth as ‘child abuse,’ defying a push by the state's attorney general and governor to target the medical treatments.” Read more at USA Today
“Florida's House of Representatives has approved a controversial bill dubbed ‘Don't Say Gay’ by opponents. The measure would prohibit any instruction about sexuality or gender between kindergarten and third grade. Critics say it will make life harder for LGBTQ youth.” Read more at NPR
“A huge storm moving from the central U.S. eyes the Northeast for Friday . More than half an inch of ice could accumulate in the Ozarks through Friday morning, while another area of freezing rain was expected to hit south-central Pennsylvania and western Maryland, the Weather Service said. The storm is also forecast to cause major travel disruptions further north by spreading up to a foot or more of snow in parts of the Northeast and New England, AccuWeather said. This expansive and far-reaching storm will have impacted about 265 million people from California to Maine by the time it exits the U.S. Friday evening, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno.” Read more at USA Today
“WASHINGTON — Roger J. Stone Jr., a close ally of former President Donald J. Trump, on Thursday sued members of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, asking a federal court to block them from obtaining logs of his texts and phone calls as part of what he deemed an effort to persecute him and other conservatives.
With the suit, which also named Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Mr. Stone joined at least 19 potential witnesses who are fighting the committee’s subpoenas in court, though judges have thus far sided with the panel, ruling that congressional investigators have broad power to access evidence for the inquiry. Those seeking to use the courts to stonewall the committee include Mark Meadows, the former White House chief of staff, as well as lower-level witnesses who helped to organize the rally in Washington that preceded the Capitol riot.
Mr. Stone’s lawsuit attacked the legitimacy of the investigation, and argued that the committee’s request for his communications records was ‘overly broad.’ In particular, it objected to a subpoena the panel had sent AT&T this month that demanded access to his mobile phone data including ‘all calls, text messages, and other records of communications’ associated with his number.
It also sought information about his IP addresses, which identify devices on a network; billing addresses; a list of contacts; call session times; and other metadata spanning a broad time frame from before the 2020 election until weeks after the violence at the Capitol: Nov. 1, 2020 to Jan. 31, 2021.” Read more at New York Times
“Lawyers representing Sarah Palin in her unsuccessful defamation lawsuit against The New York Times have told a federal judge that they plan to ask for a new trial and will file several other motions seeking to scrutinize the timing of his announcement that he intended to dismiss the case for lack of evidence if a verdict favored Ms. Palin. His statement arrived while the jury was still deliberating last week.
The decision by Judge Jed S. Rakoff — which was consistent with the verdict the jury arrived at the next day, holding that The Times was not liable for publishing and later correcting an editorial that erroneously linked the political rhetoric of Ms. Palin to a mass shooting — was the subject of a brief conference call on Wednesday between the judge and lawyers for both sides.
Judge Rakoff said Ms. Palin’s requests amounted to ‘five interesting motions,’ including one that he be retroactively disqualified from the case. Another would allow her lawyers to interview the jurors, several of whom learned of his decision from push notifications they received on their phones while deliberating. In an order last week, Judge Rakoff said several jurors had told the court’s law clerk that the notifications ‘had not affected them in any way or played any role whatever in their deliberations.’
The judge said he would review the motions once they had been filed. The motions would become part of the record should Ms. Palin appeal, which she is expected to do. Judge Rakoff also said he would expedite writing his decision outlining why he agreed to dismiss the case. He expects that to be ready by March 1.” Read more at New York Times
“A judge ordered James and Jennifer Crumbley to stand trial for their alleged roles in the deadly Michigan high school shooting, concluding they could have stopped the rampage that was carried out by their son.” Read more at USA Today
“U.S. officials tried half a dozen times over three months to get China to help head off a Russian invasion of Ukraine — but were repeatedly rebuffed by Beijing, The New York Times reports.
Why it matters: The U.S. kept presenting Beijing with intelligence on Russia's buildup around Ukraine ‘and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade,’ according to The Times. The Chinese, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the U.S., said they did not think an invasion was in the works.
‘After one diplomatic exchange in December,’ The Times says, ‘U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow.’ The Chinese said the U.S. ‘was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions.’" Read more at Axios
“Russia loses key international sports event: The Champions League final has been pulled out of St. Petersburg. The match will still take place May 28, but in Paris.” Read more at USA Today
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
“Climate change is no longer at the top of the agenda for world leaders and many executives. It's been shoved aside by Ukraine, COVID and inflation, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes.
Why it matters: The recent developments come at a hinge point for climate action. The most ambitious Paris Agreement temperature target is perilously close to slipping out of reach.
Studies show the world only has about a decade to slash emissions enough to limit warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels by 2100.” Read more at Axios
“Somali leaders agreed to extend parliamentary elections until March 15, once more postponing a long-delayed presidential vote.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Paraguayan President Mario Abdo Benitez dismissed a second senior member of his government over ties to alleged drug traffickers this week after a major sting on organized crime.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Colin Kaepernick has announced his new Autopsy Initiative, offered through his Know Your Rights Camp organization. It will provide free second autopsies to families whose loved ones died in ‘police-related’ incidents.” Read more at NPR
“Hair and makeup workers at The Atlanta Opera are trying to unionize. The labor dispute could have wide-reaching implicationsacross multiple industries that use independent contractors.” Read more at NPR
Bear League
“Hank the tank has been exonerated. The massive bear was cleared of some of his crimes when DNA evidence revealed he wasn't the only bear responsible for more than a dozen break-ins.” Read more at NPR
“Niecy Nash and wife Jessica Betts are ‘making herstory’ as first queer couple on the cover of Essence magazine.” Read more at USA Today
“Sally Kellerman, the Oscar-nominated actress who was the original Margaret ‘Hot Lips’ Houlihan in the 1970 film ‘M*A*S*H*,’ has died. She was 84.” Read more at USA Today
Sally Kellerman has died, her manager and publicist Alan Eichler confirmed to USA TODAY. She was 84.USA TODAY