The Full Belmonte, 2/22/2022
The darker area shows the rebel-held regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, that Putin recognized. Data: Mapbox/OSCE. Map: Will Chase/Axios
“In a stunning, historically revisionist national address, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that Ukraine has no right to be its own country — and that it's Moscow's duty to protect Russian speakers in Ukrainian territory from a supposed deadly threat posed by Kyiv.
Why it matters: Putin's formal recognition of two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine — followed swiftly by the deployment of Russian ;peacekeepers’ — was immediately condemned as a violation of the UN Charter and a pretext to launch a war of aggression against Ukraine.
Dave Lawler, author of our twice-weekly newsletter Axios World, sketches what to watch for:
1. Will Putin's ‘peacekeeping force’ deploy only to the territory already controlled by the separatists, or attempt to secure the much larger areas in Ukraine claimed by the two ‘republics’?
Either scenario could spark a broader conflict. The latter would be a clear declaration of war.
2. How severe and well-coordinated will the initial U.S. and European sanctions be, and what would actually trigger the ‘massive’ sanctions package the U.S., EU and G7 have promised if Putin invades?
A senior U.S. official suggested yesterday that a Russian deployment to the separatist-held territories, where undeclared Russian troops have operated since 2014, was insufficient to trigger the broader sanctions.
3. What will Ukraine's response be, beyond the current attempts to rally international support and convene emergency meetings at the UN and elsewhere?
In a televised address after Putin's announcements, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine doesn't want war and won't fall for Putin's provocations — but also won't hand over the contested Donbas region in the east.
If Russian troops approach or push beyond the ‘line of control’ in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces would have to decide whether to pull back or stand and fight a military superpower.
4. How will China respond?
Beijing and Moscow have been flaunting their closer relationship. But China has long stressed the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity — a point Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Saturday when discussing Ukraine.
5. Will Russia's military maneuvers be limited to the east for the time being, or will U.S. warnings that Putin's planning a full-scale invasion targeting Kyiv soon come to fruition?
Some analysts argued that yesterday's gambit was the peak of Putin’s escalation. Many others contended it was just one step in a much larger military operation.” Read more at Axios
“President Vladimir Putin called the West’s bluff by recognizing separatist-held parts of Ukraine and ordering Russian “peacekeeping” troops into the regions.
Now the U.S. and its allies face a test of their readiness to hold him to account for his actions.
In a defiant televised address late yesterday, Putin offered a familiar litany of complaints about the security risks to Russia of further potential expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into Ukraine.
But he also made the case that Ukraine itself was ‘completely created’ out of land from the former Russian empire during the Soviet Union’s formation, indicating he sees himself as on a historical mission to undo wrongs inflicted by Lenin’s Bolsheviks.
That sets alarm bells ringing in other ex-Soviet republics and in the West, where the U.S. and NATO must calculate how to deter Putin from potentially seizing more of Ukraine beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk territories he’s now recognized as independent states.The U.S., the European Union and the U.K. threatened swift and severe sanctions if Putin invaded Ukraine, a plan of action he’s repeatedly denied.
But while they reacted with outrage to his announcement, it’s unclear if they consider Putin to have crossed that threshold. The signs so far are that they’ll opt for lesser penalties in the hopes of keeping diplomacy alive to dissuade him from a big incursion.
The Kremlin leader thrives in that grey zone, advancing his objectives while seeking to divide the West with hints that worse may follow if he doesn’t get his way.
The world is watching to see what Putin’s next move may be.
The challenge facing President Joe Biden and his allies is to leave the Russian leader in no doubt that they’re serious about deterring him.” — Anthony Halpin Read more at Bloomberg
Putin during a meeting of the Russian Security Council at the Kremlin yesterday.
Photographer: Alexei Nikolsky/TASS
“German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ just announced he’s halting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline over the Russia/Ukraine crisis, per Deutsche Welle.” [POLITICO]
“Enduring threat | Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is retaining emergency powers for a few more days out of concern demonstrators opposing vaccine mandates are prepared to continue protests. While police have cleared all blockades across the country, he said it’s still too early to lift bans on public assembly in downtown Ottawa and at border crossings.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Bucking warnings | Prime Minister Boris Johnson is ending all pandemic rules in England, saying the U.K. must learn to live with the coronavirus. While scientists warn the move will lead to increased infections, it was welcomed by members of Johnson’s Conservative Party in a rare boost for the embattled premier after weeks of gaffes and scandals.” Read more at Bloomberg
“A fourth Covid-19 shot might be recommended in the US this fall, according to leading public health officials who say they are ‘very carefully’ monitoring if Americans would need another vaccine dose. Researchers say a fourth dose boosts antibodies, but is not likely to prevent Omicron breakthrough infections. In December, Israel became the first nation to roll out a fourth dose option for adults 60 and older. More recently, Sweden announced last week that second booster doses are recommended for everyone 80 and older.” Read more at CNN
“The Iran deal. Negotiators enter another crunch week in Vienna, with an agreement to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal reportedlydays away. Any deal will hinge on whether the United States proves ‘its will’ to lift major sanctions, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on Monday. Key issues still outstanding in negotiations include the U.S. designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group, as well as assurances that the United States won’t later renege on the deal.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Abortion in Latin America. Colombia became the latest Latin American country to expand access to abortion after its constitutional court decriminalized the procedure if undertaken in the first 24 weeks of pregnancy in a five to four vote. The ruling follows a court decision in Mexico last September effectively decriminalizing abortion as well as a Dec. 2020 vote in Argentina’s legislature to legalize abortion.” Read more at Foreign Policy
Jordan’s royal funds. Jordan’s King Abdullah II and his wife Queen Rania have been forced to defend the source behind hundreds of millions of dollars worth of funds stashed in several Swiss bank accounts following a leak of Credit Suisse data. The couple have denied any impropriety, but are still likely to face domestic pressure over the disclosure. ‘These recent reports are being used to smear His Majesty and Jordan and distort the truth,’ Jordan’s royal palace saidin a statement.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Mali’s transition. Mali’s military-dominated legislature has approved a transition plan that would delay democratic elections for five years, further pushing back a deadline that had been previously set for this month. The move is likely to raise the ire of the regional body ECOWAS, which has already imposed sanctions on Mali for dragging out its democratic transition following a 2020 coup.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Japan’s bid to label gold mines as World Heritage sites has stoked tensions with South Korea, evoking memories from Japan’s imperial past.” Read more at New York Times
“BEIJING (AP) — The just-concluded Winter Olympics weren’t China’s big event of the year — internally, at least. For the Communist Party, that comes this fall at a major meeting that will likely cement Xi Jinping ’s position as one of the nation’s most powerful leaders in its seven decades of Communist rule.
The party congress, held every five years, is expected to appoint Xi to a third five-year term as its leader, breaking with recent past practice that limited the top person to 10 years in power. That would pave the way for him to get a third term as China’s president at the following year’s annual meeting of the legislature.
For China’s 1.4 billion people and the rest of the world, Xi’s tightening grip on power signals at least a partial return to the cult of personality that characterized the rule of Mao Zedong, who led Communist China from its founding in 1949 until his death in 1976, and that the party had moved away from after the disaster of Mao’s Cultural Revolution.” Read more at AP News
“Megan Rapinoe, Alex Morgan and other members of the U.S. women’s national team reached a $24 million settlement with their employer, the U.S. Soccer Federation, over claims that they had been systematically underpaid for years compared with the men’s team.
The settlement, announced Tuesday, ends a landmark case over gender discrimination, one that could resonate throughout the sports world and beyond. The women garnered significant attention when they filed their lawsuit ahead of the 2019 World Cup, alleging that, had they been paid on the same terms as the men, they would have earned far more money. They went on to win the tournament to secure their fourth world title as the stadium in France reverberated with chants of ‘Equal pay!’
Rapinoe, who was among the leaders of the lawsuit, called the settlement a ‘huge win’ for the players and for female athletes globally, adding that she thought it would resonate far beyond soccer in this country.
‘This is going to be one of those incredible moments that we look back on and say the game changed forever, U.S. Soccer changed forever, and the landscape of soccer in this country and in the world changed forever because of this,’ she said.
The agreement, which includes $22 million for the 28 players who filed suit and establishes a $2 million charitable fund for women’s and girls’ soccer, is a victory for the athletes but falls short of the $67 million they had pushed for in their suit.
As part of the settlement, U.S. Soccer also agreed to pay the men and women at an equal rate moving forward — including in the World Cup, where bonuses offered to men’s and women’s players by FIFA, soccer’s international governing body, remain profoundly unequal.” Read more at Washington Post
“Jury deliberations have begun in the federal hate crimes trial against the three white men who chased and killed Ahmaud Arbery on a residential street in Georgia. They were all previously convicted of murder in Georgia state court.” Read more at NPR
“ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Closing arguments were expected Tuesday in the federal trial of three former Minneapolis police officers charged with violating George Floyd’s civil rights, with jurors to get the case after a month of testimony.
Thomas Lane was the final officer to present his defense, testifying Monday he didn’t realize how dire Floyd’s condition was while handcuffed, facedown on the street with Officer Derek Chauvin’s knee pressed to his neck — until paramedics turned Floyd over.
‘What went through your mind when you saw his face there, once he was tipped over?’ Earl Gray, Lane’s attorney, asked.
‘Um. He didn’t look good,’ Lane said.
Lane, J. Alexander Kueng and Tou Thao are charged with depriving Floyd of his right to medical care as Chauvin pressed his knee into Floyd’s neck for 9 1/2 minutes. Lane held the 45-year-old Black man’s feet, Kueng knelt on his back and Thao held back bystanders.” Read more at AP News
“The Biden administration has announced another freeze to new oil and gas drilling leases after a judge ruled against a key climate tool used to estimate the ‘societal cost’ of carbon emissions. The appeal, which came over the weekend, is the latest in a legal battle in the courts between several Republican-led states and the Biden administration over the social cost of carbon, a metric that uses economic models to put a value on each ton of carbon dioxide emitted. The idea is to quantify the economic harm caused by changes in the climate, such as sea level rise, more destructive hurricanes, extreme wildfire seasons and flooding. Climate scientists are in favor of the metric because it helps measure climate-fueled disasters, but states that produce oil and gas are against it, arguing it increases the costs of drilling.” Read more at CNN
“AT&T is shutting down its 3G network today. The move will impact people still using 3G Kindles, 3G flip phones, the iPhone 5 and older models, various Android phones and some wearable devices. It will also affect some home alarm systems and medical devices such as fall detectors. Some in-car crash notification and roadside assistance systems like OnStar will also need to be updated or replaced. The 3G shutdown is primarily happening so companies can re-use the spectrum for 4G and 5G services, which are newer standards, better technologies and are more efficient. T-Mobile and Verizon Wireless are phasing out 3G later this year. AT&T owns WarnerMedia, CNN's parent company.” Read more at CNN
“App glitch | Donald Trump’s new social media platform, Truth Social, got off to a rocky start on its launch day, with some users unable to register and others receiving error messages. The app aims to take on big tech companies with offerings from social media to streaming and is meant to give the former U.S. president a platform after he was banned from Twitter and Facebook.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Yale Law School will begin covering full tuition for its lowest-income students next fall, as the elite graduate program aims to diversify its ranks and make obtaining a law degree more affordable.
Students from families with income below the federal poverty line will receive annual scholarships of about $72,000, covering tuition, fees and health insurance. The students will still be responsible for their own living expenses, which the school estimates to be about $21,000 this school year.
This year’s federal poverty level is $27,750 for a family of four. The school says roughly 8% to 10% of current students would be eligible for the award, which will be known as the Hurst Horizon Scholarship.” Read more at New York Times
“Neil Cavuto, a Fox News host who is immunocompromised, said that he had been hospitalized with Covid and that ‘had I not been vaccinated at all, I wouldn’t be here.’” Read more at New York Times
Equipment at a safe injection site in New York.David Dee Delgado for The New York Times
“A Biden administration plan to reduce drug deaths includes clean-needle exchanges, reviving a decades-old fight with conservatives.” Read more at New York Times
Ginni Thomas at the Heritage Foundation.Drew Angerer/Getty Images
‘Brings disrespect’
“Early in the Reagan administration, several Christian conservative leaders founded a group called the Council for National Policy. It soon turned into what my colleague David Kirkpatrick has described as ‘a little-known club of a few hundred of the most powerful conservatives in the country.’ One of its main functions was introducing political activists to wealthy donors who could finance their work.
After Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, the group’s political arm, known as C.N.P. Action, sprang into action. It encouraged its members to spread stories about ‘election irregularities and issues’ in five swing states that Joe Biden had won narrowly. The goal was to persuade Republican state legislators to adopt Trump’s false claims about election fraud — and then award their states’ electoral votes to him, overturning Biden’s victory.
One vocal proponent of the effort was a C.N.P. board member who had spent decades in conservative politics. In the lead-up to the Jan. 6 rally at the Capitol, she reportedly mediated between feuding factions so that they would work together to plan it. On the day of the rally, she posted a message on Facebook: ‘GOD BLESS EACH OF YOU STANDING UP or PRAYING!’
This board member’s name is Ginni Thomas, and she is married to Clarence Thomas, the longest-serving justice on the Supreme Court. Today, The Times Magazine has published an investigation of Ginni Thomas’s work and its connections to her husband, written by Danny Hakim and Jo Becker.
I recognize that conflict-of-interest questions involving the work of spouses can be difficult to resolve. On the one hand, people generally deserve the right to have their own careers, separate from their spouses’. On the other hand, the privilege of being a top government official seems to call for a higher standard of neutrality than most jobs would.
But I don’t think you need to resolve that debate to be concerned about the Thomases’ recent actions. You simply need to acknowledge this: The spouse of a sitting Supreme Court justice played an active role in an effort to overturn the result of a presidential election, hand victory to the loser and unravel American democracy.
That Supreme Court justice, in turn, seemed to endorse the effort. When Trump’s attempt to undo the election’s outcome came before the Supreme Court, six of the nine justices ruled against him. But Thomas was one of three justices who sided with Trump and, his dissent echoed the arguments of C.N.P. Action, as Danny and Jo explain. Thomas effectively argued for giving partisan state legislators more control over elections and their outcomes.
Roberts vs. Thomas
The Times Magazine story has more details, including:
After the Jan. 6 rally turned into a violent attack on the Capitol, C.N.P. advised its members to defend the rioters. And Thomas herself signed a letter criticizing the House committee investigating the attack. The investigation, the letter said, ‘brings disrespect to our country’s rule of law’ and ‘legal harassment to private citizens who have done nothing wrong.’ (Ginni Thomas also made baseless accusations of election fraud in 2018, The Washington Post has reported.)
The Thomases have used his position as a justice to advance her causes as an operative. During the Trump presidency, White House aides were surprised when Justice Thomas brought an uninvited guest — his wife — to a scheduled lunch with the president.
I also recommend a recent New Yorker article on the couple, by Jane Mayer. It notes that the Supreme Court has exempted itself from some conflict-of-interest rules that apply to all other judges. In reporting the story, Mayer uncovered previously unknown payments to Ginni Thomas from conservative activists — including a group involved in a case before the Supreme Court.
The result, Mayer told NPR, is ‘the appearance of a conflict of interest that undermines the public confidence that the court is ruling in favor of justice rather than in favor of a justice’s pocketbook.’
I’m especially struck that the Thomases have been willing to mix Supreme Court cases with both their own finances and partisan politics at a time when the justices seem so worried about the court’s image.
Several justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts, have recently given speeches insisting that the justices are neutral arbiters of the law rather than partisan figures. Justice Stephen Breyer has argued that the court’s authority depends on ‘a trust that the court is guided by legal principle, not politics,’ and Justice Amy Coney Barrett has said, ‘This court is not comprised of a bunch of partisan hacks.’
Justice Thomas has made a version of this argument himself, saying that a justice is not ‘like a politician’ who makes a decision based on ‘personal preference.’ His actions send a different message, though. They seem to acknowledge that the court is indeed a political body.” Read more at New York Times
“A new poll from Gallup and the Knight Foundation finds that younger Democrats are driving a huge decline in national news consumption in the U.S., Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes.
Why it matters: This marks the first time since the study began in early 2018 that Democrats report having less interest in national news than Republicans and independents.
The study found fewer Americans are paying attention to national news ‘than at any time since early 2018.’
Democrats' interest declined the most, with just 34% saying they paid a great deal of attention to national news in 2021, compared to 69% in November 2020.
The decline among Democrats ages 18-34 is staggering. Roughly a quarter (24%) said they paid a great deal of attention to national news in 2021, compared to 70% in November 2020. Those ages 35-54 also tuned out significantly.
Independents who lean Democratic are also paying less attention to national news than independents who lean Republican.
Between the lines: Partisans generally tend to tune in more to national news when the opposing party is in office, according to Gallup.
But news fatigue is also hitting Republicans, who showed a marginal decline in interest in national news.” Read more at Axios
“University of Michigan's men's head basketball coach Juwan Howard has been suspended for the rest of the season after he slapped an assistant coach when the Wolverines lost to Wisconsin on Sunday. Three players have also been suspended for fighting.” Read more at NPR
“Medina Spirit is no longer the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. The colt, who died unexpectedly in December, was officially disqualified by Kentucky racing officials on Monday for failing a drug test after winning the race.
Medina Spirit is only the third horse in the race’s 147-year history to receive such a penalty after finishing first. The decision means the colt’s owner, Amr Zedan, will not collect the $1.8 million first-place check, which was never paid out and will now go to Mandaloun’s owner, Juddmonte, the racing and breeding enterprise founded by Prince Khalid bin Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died last year.
Churchill Downs, the track in Louisville, Ky., that hosts the Derby, said in a statement that it now recognizes Mandaloun as the winner of the 2021 race, adding, ‘We look forward to celebrating Mandaloun on a future date in a way that is fitting of this rare distinction.’
The ruling also erased the Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s seventh Kentucky Derby victory, which had been a record.” Read more at New York Times
Paul Farmer (R) stands on the Tengbeh Town Bridge with Ibrahim Kamara (L) in Freetown, Sierra Leone, in 2015. Photo: Jon Lascher/Partners in Health
“Dr. Paul Farmer — a physician and humanitarian who provided health care to millions of impoverished people worldwide, and co-founded the Boston-based global nonprofit Partners in Health — died at 62.
He passed away in his sleep from an acute cardiac event while in Rwanda, where he had been teaching, AP reports.
Farmer was a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and chief of the division of global health equity at Brigham and Women's Hospital.
He wrote extensively on health, human rights and social inequality.” Read more at Axios