The Full Belmonte, 2/21/2024
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump. (AFP/Getty Images)
Presidential race
“Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley on Tuesday reiterated her plans to stay in the 2024 race against former President Donald Trump, just five days ahead of the South Carolina primary. Although analysts say she has no mathematical path to the GOP nomination, Haley has vowed to carry on beyond the South Carolina primary and through Super Tuesday on March 5. According to one of the latest polls, Trump leads Haley among likely voters in South Carolina's upcoming Republican primary, 65% to 30%. Meanwhile, a new filing Tuesday showed Trump's leadership PAC paid out nearly $3 million to law firms last month as his legal troubles mounted. The former president also racked up an additional $1.9 million in unpaid legal bills at the end of January, according to the documents.” [CNN]
Donald Trump and his allies are comparing Alexei Navalny’s plight to his own.
“What’s happening: Navalny, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s main political rival, died in prison last week. His body has not yet been released. And his widow has vowed to fight on.
U.S. reaction: President Biden blamed Putin, and plans to levy “major sanctions.” Trump likened Navalny’s death — which he hasn’t condemned — to his own legal troubles.
In related news: A Russian military defector’s body, riddled with bullets, was found in Spain last week, Ukraine said.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Supreme Court
“The Supreme Court declined to hear a case challenging admission rules meant to diversify an elite Virginia high school, letting the policy take effect. It is a victory for class-based affirmative action programs.” [New York Times]
“Justice Samuel Alito again criticized the Supreme Court’s 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage. He has previously suggested that the court should reconsider it, but most justices still seem to support it.” [New York Times]
Biden’s brother is set to be interviewed in an impeachment hearing today.
“Why? As part of House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry, focused on Biden’s son Hunter’s business deals. They haven’t shown evidence of wrongdoing by the president.
What’s next? After James Biden’s testimony, Hunter Biden will have a closed-door interview next week.
In related news: An FBI informant, charged last week with lying about the Bidens, has claimed close ties to Russian intelligence.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Super Bowl rally
“Authorities have unveiled new charges in the Kansas City Super Bowl rally shooting last week that left one woman dead and more than 20 others injured. Two men are each facing second-degree murder charges as well as two counts of armed criminal action and unlawful use of a weapon, prosecutor Jean Peters Baker said in a news conference Tuesday. The two adults charged are different than the two juveniles who were chased and detained after the shooting, officials said. Kansas City radio DJ Lisa Lopez-Galvan, a mother of two, was identified as the person killed at the rally. Some of the victims, including several children, are still being treated for gunshot wounds.” [CNN]
Russian spies
“The former FBI informant charged with lying about the Bidens' dealings in Ukraine told investigators that he got dirt on Hunter Biden from Russian intelligence officials. Prosecutors said in a new court filing Tuesday that Alexander Smirnov has been ‘actively peddling new lies that could impact US elections’ after meeting with Russian spies last year and that the fallout from his previous false bribery accusations about the Bidens ‘continue[s] to be felt to this day.’ The revelation comes amid backlash over how Smirnov's now-debunked allegations played into House Republicans' impeachment inquiry into President Biden. Separately, the US is expected to announce a major sanctions package against Russia on Friday that is intended to hold President Vladimir Putin accountable for his war in Ukraine — and the death of Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny.” [CNN]
Middle East
“The US vetoed an Algerian resolution at the UN on Tuesday calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. For months, the Biden administration has advocated for a temporary halt in fighting but avoided using the term ‘ceasefire’ as it remains supportive of Israel. It was only on Monday that the Biden administration for the first time called for a ‘temporary ceasefire’ in the conflict amid signs of American frustration with the war. Tuesday's vote on Algeria's proposed measure came ahead of an anticipated Israeli offensive in Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza where more than a million and a half Palestinians with few resources are crammed with no clear evacuation route.” [CNN]
A major cybercriminal group was disrupted by global law enforcement.
“Which one? LockBit, one of the world’s most prolific ransomware gangs. Its software has been used to extort over $120 million from more than 2,000 victims, officials said.
The operation: An 11-nation task force infiltrated the group, believed to be operated from Russia, it said yesterday. It made arrests and froze 200 cryptocurrency accounts.”
Read this story at Washington Post
© The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | The Capitol in 2023.
House Republicans head for the exits as GOP eyes Senate takeover
“As Senate Republicans look toward retaking the upper chamber, their House counterparts are racing for the exits.
A growing number of high-profile House Republicans will be retiring at the end of this Congress, and many are voicing a common and unsettling theme driving their decision: the toxicity of life on Capitol Hill. The Hilll’s Mike Lillis and Mychael Schnell note that message marks a nuanced but notable contrast from cycles of the past, when a wave of retirements might reflect an exodus of aging veteran lawmakers, concerns that control of the House could flip, or both.
Democrats are also exiting the lower chamber in spades; as of Feb. 14, 23 Democrats and 21 Republicans will not seek reelection in November . But the latest crop of departing Republicans has been remarkably open about their exasperation working in a Congress where internal party clashes have ground the task of legislating to a crawl while the most incendiary voices dominate the airwaves.
Notably, this year’s list of retirees features a number of younger, powerful lawmakers — a handful of them with formidable committee gavels — who could easily wait out a few terms in the minority. Instead, they say, they’re at the end of their rope.
‘Electoral politics was never supposed to be a career and, trust me, Congress is no place to grow old,’ said Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), the chair of the House select committee on China.
Gallagher was viewed as an up-and-comer in the Republican conference. The 39-year-old caught the eye of Senate Republican recruiters last year, who attempted to convince him to run against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis) (The New York Times). He announced his plans to retire earlier this month.
He’s not alone in that decision, and the number of retiring committee chairs is fueling anxiety among members in both parties that the typical “brain drain” that accompanies the inevitable round of biennial retirements will be more pronounced this year — and have a greater impact on how the lower chamber functions in the next Congress.
SENATE REPUBLICANS, MEANWHILE, see their chances of regaining a majority in the upper chamber as sky-high — regardless of who wins the bid for the White House. It’s a remarkable shift from two years ago, when infighting between an out-of-power former President Trump and the GOP establishment left the conference with midterm candidates who underperformed, boosting Democrats to a bigger majority in 2023 than they enjoyed the previous year.
Last week, Republicans scored when former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) entered the state’s senate race, adding a strong GOP candidate into a contest in a deep blue state. His candidacy, regardless of a win or loss in November, will force Democrats to spend money in Maryland, rather than pumping funds into tougher races. And in Montana, the party now has a single standout candidate in Tim Sheehy, saving the GOP from a messy primary, The Hill’s Julia Mueller reports. The reshuffling has left Republican leaders largely optimistic about their chances — and growing more bullish about broadening the Senate battlefield map.” [The Hill]
“Eric Hovde, a wealthy Republican businessman, is challenging Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, in Wisconsin.” [New York Times]
“Democrats are beginning a multimillion-dollar effort to appoint more state judges.” [New York Times]
War in Ukraine
Avdiivka, Ukraine, last week. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
“Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers disappeared after Russian forces took the eastern city of Avdiivka last week. Officials believe the Russians may have captured them.” [New York Times]
“In southern Ukraine, Russian forces are targeting land hard-won by Ukraine in a rare success of its counteroffensive last summer.” [New York Times]
“A Russian pilot who protested the war by defecting into Ukraine aboard a helicopter last year is believed to have been shot to death in Spain.” [New York Times]
“Russian authorities arrested a Russian American woman and charged her with treason. A lawyer said she had sent $50 to a nonprofit that supports Ukraine.” [New York Times]
“The news these days has a whiff of the apocalyptic. The prospect of Russia deploying a nuclear weapon into space soon is merely the latest in a run of alarming headlines.
That should be a catalyst for action by the world’s top diplomats as they gather in Rio de Janeiro today. Instead, there’s an air of pessimism over the foreign minister talks.
Trying to find common ground among Group of 20 nations has seldom been more challenging.
The club found its raison d’etre in the 2008-9 financial crisis, but two wars and the most challenging geopolitical climate in decades puts it at risk of paralysis.
The host isn’t exactly helping spur a measured debate. Over the weekend, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva compared Israel’s war on Hamas with Adolf Hitler’s extermination of Jews during the Holocaust. Brazil has no intention of backing down.
Lula wants to use Brazil’s G-20 presidency to cast himself as a leader of the Global South, a loose term encompassing the BRICS grouping also including Russia, India and China that’s seen as a rival to the US-led order.
Several Global South nations were once subject to colonial rule, which goes some way to explain why they find common ground with Russia over the US and its European allies.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has slowly been making his way to Rio via Cuba and Venezuela, gleefully stoking anti-Western sentiment along the way.
It’s not hard to stir accusations of hypocrisy for aiding Ukraine in its war against invading Russian forces while refusing to do more to impose a cease-fire in Gaza.
One can only imagine the discomfort around the table when it comes to initiating, skirting or shutting down discussion around the conflicts.”— Flavia Krause-Jackson [Bloomberg]
Destroyed homes after Israeli airstrikes in Rafah on Sunday. Photographer: Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images
“As Russia’s war in Ukraine nears a third year, President Vladimir Putin’s forces have shifted to the offensive and captured the eastern city of Avdiivka after months of fighting. The mood is now noticeably darker in Kyiv as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s military runs low on ammunition and weapons, with political infighting in Western capitals holding up deliveries and aid to Ukraine.” [Bloomberg]
The village of Lastochkino near Avdiivka on Feb. 15. Photographer: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images
“Pakistan’s two main family-controlled parties agreed to form a government, a move that likely keeps jailed former premier Imran Khan’s group out of power. The development will probably end days of uncertainty after the vote, which saw Khan’s candidates running as independents defy the odds by winning the most seats but fall short of clinching an outright majority.” [Bloomberg]
“Plane tracking, weather monitoring, marking locations in map apps — China’s spy agency is warning that foreign actors are exploiting these everyday mundane acts to harm the country’s national security. It’s the latest sign of increasing scrutiny of data flows, one that is likely to heighten risks for businesses operating in the world’s second-largest economy.” [Bloomberg]
“The co-head of Germany’s far-right AfD, Alice Weidel, met her French counterpart, Marine Le Pen, in Paris, patching up a dispute between the two leaders. They’d fallen out after media reports of a clandestine gathering at which the Alternative for Germany discussed a deportation policy with Nazi echoes. Le Pen raised doubts last month over her National Rally party’s ties to the AfD after the revelation.” [Bloomberg]
“South Africa will hold elections on May 29, setting the stage for a contest in which the African National Congress faces the biggest threat to its majority since winning power three decades ago. The announcement comes as the government presents its annual budget today and as support for the ruling party wanes because of its failure to address record electricity outages, collapsing infrastructure and rampant corruption.” [Bloomberg]
“A North Korean missile used by Russia and recovered in Ukraine had several hundred parts that could be sourced from foreign manufacturers, including US and European firms, showing that Pyongyang is finding ways to evade sanctions, Conflict Armament Research said in a report.” [Bloomberg]
February 21, 2024
Good morning. Today, my colleague Ellen Barry writes about promising news involving suicide prevention, an urgent public health issue that deserves more attention. — David Leonhardt
By Ellen Barry
Mental Health Reporter, Science
Suicide barriers on the Golden Gate Bridge. Jim Wilson/The New York Times
Suicide science
“‘The bridge is sealed up.’ Last month, with those words, the general manager of the Golden Gate Bridge announced the completion of a suicide barrier — stainless steel netting that extends about 20 feet out from the walkway for the length of the bridge, making a jump into the water below extraordinarily difficult.
For decades, friends and family members of people who had jumped pleaded for a barrier. And for decades, my colleague John Branch recently reported, officials found reasons — the cost, the aesthetics — not to build one.
But something is changing in the United States, where the suicide rate has risen by about 35 percent over two decades, with deaths approaching 50,000 annually. The U.S. is a glaring exception among wealthy countries; globally, the suicide rate has been dropping steeply and steadily.
Barriers are in the works on the William Howard Taft Bridge in Washington, D.C., the Penobscot Narrows Bridge in Maine and several Rhode Island bridges. Universities in Texas and Florida have budgeted millions of dollars for barriers on high structures. Scores of communities are debating similar steps.
Research has demonstrated that suicide is most often an impulsive act, with a period of acute risk that passes in hours, or even minutes. Contrary to what many assume, people who survive suicide attempts often go on to do well: Nine out of 10 of them do not die by suicide.
Policymakers, it seems, are paying attention. I have been reporting on mental health for The New York Times for two years, and in today’s newsletter I will look at promising, evidence-based efforts to prevent suicide.
A single element
For generations, psychiatrists believed that, in the words of the British researcher Norman Kreitman, ‘anyone bent on self-destruction must eventually succeed.’
Then something strange and wonderful happened: Midway through the 1960s, the annual number of suicides in Britain began dropping — by 35 percent in the following years — even as tolls crept up in other parts of Europe.
No one could say why. Had medicine improved, so that more people survived poisoning? Were antidepressant medications bringing down levels of despair? Had life in Britain just gotten better?
The real explanation, Kreitman discovered, was none of these. The drop in suicides had come about almost by accident: As the United Kingdom phased out coal gas from its supply to household stoves, levels of carbon monoxide decreased. Suicide by gas accounted for almost half of the suicides in 1960.
It turns out that blocking access to a single lethal means — if it is the right one — can make a huge difference.
The strategy that arose from this realization is known as ‘means restriction’ or ‘means safety,’ and vast natural experiments have borne it out. When Sri Lanka restricted the import of toxic pesticides, which people had ingested in moments of crisis, its suicide rate dropped by half over the next decade.
Arresting an urge
More than half of U.S. suicides are carried out with firearms. Guns are a reliably deadly means, resulting in death in about 90 percent of attempted suicides; intentional overdoses, by contrast, result in death about 3 percent of the time.
When an attempt fails, ‘these folks generally survive and go on to get past these thoughts, go on to live happy, full lives,’ said Dr. Paul Nestadt, a suicide researcher at Johns Hopkins. ‘If you are a gun owner, that brief moment where the suicidal thoughts exceed the desire to be alive for tomorrow, that’s all it takes.’
Other countries, like Israel, have brought down suicide rates dramatically by restricting access to guns. But in the U.S., about 400 million guns are circulating in private hands, said Michael Anestis, who leads the New Jersey Gun Violence Research Center. ‘We don’t know where they are, and even if we did, we would have no way of getting them,’ he said.
Twenty-one states have passed red flag laws, which allow the authorities to remove firearms temporarily from individuals identified as dangerous to themselves or others. A follow-up study found that firearm suicides dropped 7.5 percent in Indiana in the decade after the law’s passage; Connecticut saw a 13.7 percent drop over eight years as the state began to enforce the law in earnest.
Another promising approach is to change gun storage habits, which Anestis likened to public health campaigns around smoking or drunken driving. He threw out some ideas, including financial incentives, such as providing gun owners with a hefty coupon for a gun safe, and encouraging gun shops to install lockers so people could temporarily store their guns outside of the home.
Even brief counseling sessions can change a gun owner’s habits, trials show. Anestis recalled one subject who was particularly dismissive of the counselor’s advice but returned six months later with a different outlook. ‘Since I was last here, I broke up with my fiancé and I let my brother hold my guns. If I hadn’t done that, I’m pretty sure I’d be dead,’ the subject told researchers.
If you are having thoughts of suicide, call or text 988 to reach a lifeline for help. More resources are available here.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Damo Suzuki was a Japanese vocalist best known as a member of the German experimental rock group Can. His singing often sounded like shamanic incantations in an invented language. Suzuki died at 74.” [New York Times]