The Full Belmonte, 2/19/2023
China may be on brink of supplying arms to Russia, says Blinken
US secretary of state meets with top Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi, and warns of ‘serious problem for us’ if Beijing supplies weaponry to Vladimir Putin
“The US has said it believes China may be about to provide lethal aid to help Russia in the war in Ukraine, prompting a direct warning against doing so from the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to China’s top diplomat.
Blinken made the warning to the Chinese state councillor Wang Yi on Saturday evening at a meeting on the sidelines of the Munich security conference during which he also rebuked China over the use of an alleged spy balloon over US soil.
In a blunt meeting he also urged China to stop helping Russia evade the impact of sanctions. China’s trade with Russia is increasing and it has been buying Russian oil, but probably below the US$60 per barrel price cap imposed by the EU and G7 group of states.
Blinken told US networks that the US had information China was considering whether to give Russia assistance, possibly including guns and weapons, for the Ukraine war.
‘The concern that we have now is, based on information we have, that they’re considering providing lethal support,’ Blinken told CBS’s Face the Nation shortly after he met with Wang. ‘And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.’
The US believes China may already be providing some surveillance information to the Wagner group, the mercenary wing that works alongside the Russian army.
Kamala Harris, the US vice-president, in her speech to the security conference warned China against providing lethal equipment to a country that she said the US had judged was committing crimes against humanity. But Harris in her remarks did not assert that such lethal aid was about to be provided.
The US warnings about China’s intentions come in the context of a Chinese proposal to reveal a peace plan for Ukraine in a speech by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, coinciding with the 24 February anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Wang revealed the intention to launch the plan in his speech to the security conference on Saturday, and has been briefing leaders from France, Germany and Italy on China’s intentions, possibly in a bid to drive a wedge between EU states and the US…..” Read more at The Guardian
“The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the first of two cases regarding a little-known law that shields platforms like Google, Twitter and YouTube from lawsuits over third-party content posted on their sites. The final outcome of the case could have far-reaching repercussions for online speech and content moderation.” [CNN]
The 2024 old-age war
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
“Both Democrats and Republicans are getting louder about old age as a reason to head off a rerun between President Biden, 80, and former President Trump, 76.
Why it matters: Democrats tell pollsters Biden's age is a big reason so many want another nominee. And some in the GOP are using Trump's age to push the party past his divisive era, Axios' Justin Green writes.
What's happening: High-level Dems tell Politico's Jonathan Martin that Biden is too old to run — although they're publicly backing him because they fear Trump could win if they nominate Vice President Harris.
Behind the scenes, Democratic governors and lawmakers voiced fears about nominating someone who'd be 86 at the end of his second term.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) said: ‘[I]f he were 15-20 years younger it would be a no-brainer to nominate him, but considering his age it's absurd we're not promoting competition but trying to extinguish it.’
On the Republican side, Nikki Haley, 51 — former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor — launched her presidential campaign with jabs at Biden that doubled as attacks on Trump.
Haley called for a mandatory mental competence test for candidates over age 75 and declared: ‘America is not past our prime. It's just that our politicians are past theirs.’
She said the country is ‘ready for a new generation of leadership to lead us into the future.’
What we're watching: Haley took the lead on the age argument, but many other younger Republicans are eyeing '24:
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is 44. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is 51. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is 56. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is 57.
Reality check: A raft of Gen X candidates were trounced by Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
On the GOP side, they included Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
Democrats included Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and businessman Andrew Yang.
What's next: Gen X better hurry. The oldest millennials are now in their early 40s — plenty old enough to run for president.” [Axios]
Jimmy Carter begins final journey
Jimmy Carter plays softball in his hometown of Plains, Ga., in August 1976, during his presidential campaign. Photo: Owen Franken/Getty Images
“At 98, Jimmy Carter, the longest-living former president in U.S. history, is choosing to give up medical treatment and receive hospice care at his home in Georgia, the Carter Center said yesterday.
The former president has dealt with a number of health issues in recent years, including battling skin cancer, which spread to his liver and brain, The New York Times notes.
Flashback: In 2018, the Washington Post's Kevin Sullivan and Mary Jordan profiled Carter's simple life as ‘the un-celebrity president’ in Plains, Georgia — the same tiny town in which he grew up.
Saturday night dinner is salmon and broccoli casserole on a paper plate at the Carters' friend's place — ‘with plastic Solo cups of ice water and one glass each of bargain-brand chardonnay, then the half-mile walk home to the ranch house they built in 1961.’
Most presidents make millions upon leaving the White House. They give speeches and sit on boards.
‘I don’t see anything wrong with it; I don’t blame other people for doing it ... It just never had been my ambition to be rich,’ Carter told The Post.
‘Carter is the only president in the modern era to return full-time to the house he lived in before he entered politics — a two-bedroom rancher assessed at $167,000, less than the value of the armored Secret Service vehicles parked outside,’ Sullivan and Jordan write. [Axios]
Michigan G.O.P. Installs Kristina Karamo, an Election Denier, as Leader
The vote for Kristina Karamo, who resoundingly lost her bid for secretary of state last year, cements the party’s takeover by Trump loyalists.
“LANSING, Mich. — Michigan Republicans on Saturday picked Kristina Karamo to lead the party in the battleground state, fully embracing an election-denying Trump acolyte after her failed bid for statewide office, one in which she unsuccessfully sued to throw out mail-in votes in Detroit and refused to concede.
Ms. Karamo won a majority of delegate votes at the state party’s convention in Lansing, the state capital, after three rounds of voting that — slowed by paper ballots and hand counting — went on hours longer than the period for which the party had originally rented the convention space.
Her victory appeared to be an upset of Matthew DePerno, another vocal champion of former President Donald J. Trump’s election falsehoods who had his backing in the leadership contest.
Despite Mr. Trump’s endorsement of her rival, Ms. Karamo’s victory in some ways signaled an even stronger recommitment to Mr. Trump as the state party’s north star: One of the biggest flourishes of applause from the crowd of more than 2,000 delegates came when Ms. Karamo reminded them of her refusal to concede the secretary of state’s race.
Both Ms. Karamo and Mr. DePerno lost resoundingly last fall: Ms. Karamo by 14 points and Mr. DePerno, in his bid for attorney general, by eight percentage points. They were among a number of Trump-backed candidates who were rejected by Michigan voters during the midterm elections.
The fractured state G.O.P. now appears to have either purged or alienated more moderate voices and is plotting a defiant course as the 2024 presidential election approaches….” Read more at New York Times
Sticker shock
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“The cost of staple items is climbing as some of the world's biggest companies raise their prices.
Procter & Gamble, which makes basics like Bounty paper towels and Pampers diapers, said this week that it raised prices by 10% last quarter, compared with a year ago, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.
And Nestlé is predicting that the prices of staple items will continue to rise this year after increasing them 8.2% in 2022, Axios' Sareen Habeshian notes.
What to watch: After months of absorbing inflation with a degree of aplomb, consumers may be starting to balk at price increases.” [Axios]
Good morning. Countries in Asia are aging rapidly. Motoko Rich, The Times’s Tokyo bureau chief, explains what that means for society.
Seniors lining up for food aid vouchers in Hong Kong. Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
Senior societies
“Asia faces a problem: Its population is aging faster than any other continent’s. A growing percentage of people in Japan, South Korea and China are over 65, and those countries’ economies are suffering because of a lack of available workers. Governments are struggling to find the money to support retirees.
The problem is pronounced in Japan. I spoke to Motoko Rich, The Times’s Tokyo bureau chief, about what it means when a society ages this quickly.
Claire: You’ve reported on the rapidly graying populations of Japan and other Asian countries. How much is Asia aging, and how did we get here?
Motoko: Let’s start with Japan. Almost a third of the population is over 65. For comparison, in the U.S. that number is about 17 percent. And experts say South Korea and China are on track to reach similar levels in the coming years.
Source: United Nations Population Division
One reason is the low birthrates in these countries. In China, it was because of the one-child policy. In Japan and Korea, gender inequality and the high cost of raising children played important roles. Because of high expectations at home, it’s hard for women to combine parenting with having a fulfilling career. As a result, more women are postponing childbirth or deciding not to have children at all.
Life expectancy is also long in these countries. Looking from afar, there are some jolly aspects to that, like happy centenarians who are living healthy lives on the Japanese island of Okinawa. But there’s a dark side. Japan has the highest percentage of old people with dementia. And there are not enough workers to take care of them and even to fill the jobs to run the economy.
I understand why an aging population poses challenges within a country. What does it mean for people living elsewhere?
It’s coming for you. Population growth in the U.S. is at extremely low levels. Italy’s population is aging at the fastest rate in the West. Other countries will look toward Asia and learn from it. They’ll see what to do or what not to do.
You can compare the issue to how people used to view climate change: It was happening for many years, but we weren’t paying attention. Societies need to plan for aging, and they’re not well set up to do so. It’s not an in-your-face crisis — it’s a slow-rolling crisis.
Older people in Asia are often in good physical health. What about their mental health?
Mental health is a huge problem. Some people die alone, as my colleague Norimitsu Onishi wrote a few years ago. People have fewer children than they used to. Those children move to cities, and are not in a position to take care of their parents who are left behind in depopulating areas. So old people are living in isolation.
Other than older people working longer, what are some potential solutions?
Bringing in workers from other countries seems to be the only solution, but Japan is notoriously opposed to immigration. A few years ago it changed its laws to allow some workers, but the parameters were strict and it didn’t have a major impact.
Japan is not the only country in the region struggling with this. Last year in China, deaths outnumbered births for the first time in six decades. How is China dealing with its aging population?
China has been scrambling to forestall the decline by ending its one-child policy and encouraging families to have more children, including — like in Japan — the subsidizing of assisted reproductive technology, in the hopes that it will spur more births.
You recently wrote a story about older people in Tokyo working manual jobs. How did you get that idea?
I wanted to do the story because I see it everywhere. A few years into living here, I hired movers. When they showed up, they looked like grandparents. My husband and I kept offering to help — they seemed way too old to be doing this kind of labor. When you open the door for a delivery, often the person looks too old to still be working.
If you go into the post office or banks, there’ll often be a selection of reading glasses at the counter. There are also little nooks where people can hang their canes. In train stations, there’s more seating for older people, but also more old people nimbly climbing the stairs than I was used to seeing in New York. It’s very clearly an older society.” [New York Times]
“Lives lived: Stella Stevens starred alongside Elvis Presley and Jerry Lewis, but felt film-industry sexism kept her from directing and writing. She died at 84.” [New York Times]
Stella Stevens with Jerry Lewis in a publicity photo for one of her best-known films, “The Nutty Professor” (1963).Credit...Photofest