The Full Belmonte, 2/16/2024
An ex-FBI informant was charged with lying about Biden business dealings.
“Who? Alexander Smirnov, accused of making up a bribery scheme involving President Biden, his son Hunter and a Ukrainian energy firm. Read the indictment here.
Why it matters: Republicans cited Smirnov’s claims as they attempted to build a corruption case against the president. It’s part of an effort to impeach Biden.
What else to know: Biden’s lawyers forcefully protested a special counsel report that questioned his memory, The Post reported yesterday.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Hunter Biden talks to reporters in Washington, Dec. 13, 2023. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
FBI informant charged with lying about Joe and Hunter Biden’s ties to Ukrainian energy company
“Alexander Smirnov has been charged with fabricating a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme involving President Joe Biden, his son Hunter and a Ukrainian energy company. Read more.
Key points:
The informant’s claims have been central to the Republican effort in Congress to investigate the president and his family , and helped spark what is now a House impeachment inquiry into Biden.
Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer has downplayed the importance of the informant. ‘To be clear, the impeachment inquiry is not reliant on the FBI’s FD-1023,’ he said, referring to the form documenting Smirnov’s allegations and stated the committee will continue to ‘follow the facts’ to determine whether to proceed with articles of impeachment against Biden.
Hunter Biden is expected to appear before the committee later this month. His attorney, Abbe Lowell, said he had long warned the probe was based on ‘lies told by people with political agendas, not facts. We were right and the air is out of their balloon.’” [AP News]
Fani Willis delivered fiery testimony in Georgia after witness contradicted her
Fani Willis fights to remain on Trump Georgia case.
“Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis (D) vigorously defended herself from the witness stand Thursday during a high-stakes Georgia court hearing focused on her relationship with Nathan Wade, the prosecutor she hired to lead her case against former president Donald Trump. Over two hours of testimony, Willis was combative, appearing irritated by allegations of wrongdoing and accusing defense lawyers of lying.” Read more at Washington Post
A dispute between several people led to yesterday’s Super Bowl rally shooting in Kansas City, preliminary findings suggest.
People attend a candlelight vigil at Skywalk Memorial Plaza in Kansas City, Missouri, on Thursday. (Emmalee Reed/CNN)
“The incident that killed at least one person and wounded more than 20 others had no link to terrorism or homegrown violent extremism, according to preliminary findings. Two teens are currently detained, officials said. Their relationship to one another, and whether they were previously known to law enforcement, is under investigation.” [Wall Street Journal]
Another judgment day for Donald Trump
“Donald Trump faces a possible nine-figure calamity Friday when a judge is expected to release his decision in the former president’s contentious New York civil fraud trial. New York Attorney General Letitia James is seeking $370 million in penalties after Judge Arthur Engoron ruled last year that Trump had over-inflated the value of his real estate holdings – including the size of his own Trump Tower penthouse apartment – in order to get favorable bank loan terms. Without evidence, Trump has attacked the proceedings as a politically motivated hit job.” [USA Today]
Aleksei Navalny, the most outspoken domestic critic of President Vladimir Putin, has died in prison, Russian state media said.
“In a statement carried by RIA Novosti news agency, the penitentiary service said that Mr. Navalny, 47, lost consciousness on Friday after taking a walk in the Arctic prison where he was moved last year.”
Read more at New York Times
Displaced Palestinian children in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, take shelter at the border with Egypt.
PHOTO: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS
Egyptian authorities are building a walled enclosure near the border with Gaza, according to Egyptian officials and security analysts.
“Fearful that an Israeli military push further south in the enclave will set off a flood of refugees, Cairo has for weeks sought to bolster security there to keep Palestinians out. The new compound is part of contingency plans if large numbers of Gazans do get in. The governor of Egypt’s North Sinai region said that the construction was part of an effort to take an inventory of houses destroyed during Egypt’s past military campaign against Islamic State extremists. Meanwhile, Israeli troops entered the main hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis after its intelligence indicated that hostages kidnapped by Hamas, as well as bodies, were being held there. Hamas called Israel’s incursion part of a systematic policy of targeting hospitals and destroying civilian infrastructure in Gaza and a violation of international law.” [Wall Street Journal]
Nasser Hospital Under Fire
Palestinian patients rest as they arrive in Rafah after being evacuated from Nasser Medical Center in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis on Feb. 15.Mohammed Salem/Reuters
“Israeli special forces stormed Nasser Medical Center in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis on Thursday in what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described as a ‘precise and limited operation’ to search for Hamas militants that the military said were hiding among wounded civilians and for the possible remains of hostages held at the hospital.
The hospital is facing a ‘disastrous and worrying situation,’ said Ashraf al-Qudra, a spokesperson for the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, on Thursday. He warned of fuel running out within 24 hours and said some people had been forced to relocate to a building with ‘frightening conditions.’
Nasser Medical Center is one of Gaza’s last functioning major hospitals. Israel has accused Hamas of operating out of Nasser and other health complexes, arguing that the militant group’s actions make these locations legitimate military targets. International law experts and foreign governments, though, have urged Israel to protect all civilian infrastructure. The IDF said it also had ‘credible intelligence’ that Hamas had previously held Israeli hostages at Nasser and that the bodies of some hostages might still be there.
Israel ordered thousands of displaced Palestinians sheltering at Nasser hospital to evacuate on Wednesday in advance of the raid. The military said it opened a ‘humanitarian corridor’ to ensure that civilians could safely leave but that the roughly 300 hospital staff and 450 patients did not have to evacuate. According to Israeli spokesperson Daniel Hagari, Israel wants Nasser to continue to treat its patients. Hundreds of people have since fled.
Palestinians faced an impossible choice to stay at Nasser and ‘become a potential target’ or leave ‘into an apocalyptic landscape where bombings and evacuation orders are part of daily life,’ Doctors Without Borders project coordinator Lisa Macheiner said.
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry accused Israeli troops of attacking the complex’s orthopedic department. Hospital officials reported tank and sniper fire and said at least one patient was killed and around eight others wounded. Israel said it detained numerous suspects during the raid.
The operation came less than one week after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to create a plan to evacuate Palestinians sheltering in nearby Rafah ahead of an impending ground offensive there. More than half of Gaza’s 2.3 million civilians have fled to Rafah in recent weeks to escape Israeli bombardments. Netanyahu pledged safe passage for those evacuating but did not specify what that might look like.” [Foreign Policy]
“Campaign funding reforms. India’s Supreme Court banned anonymous election donations on Thursday—just months before New Delhi is expected to hold national elections. The so-called electoral bonds system, established in 2017, allowed individuals and companies to make unlimited contributions to political parties. But India’s highest court ruled that granting funders anonymity was ‘unconstitutional’ because it restricted the public’s right to know how parties were financially supported. The five-judge bench also reinstated limits to corporate donations.
India hosts the most expensive elections in the world, spending as much as $7.2 billion in 2019. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi created the electoral bonds system and has been its largest beneficiary over the past seven years. In fiscal year 2022, the BJP earned $230 million and spent $103 million. Although Thursday’s ruling is a major setback for future BJP fundraising, experts predict that it will likely not impact the party’s election prospects this year.” [Foreign Policy]
A celebration in Athens after the vote. (Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters)
“LGBTQ progress. Greece legalized same-sex marriage and equal parental rights for same-sex couples on Thursday—making it the first Orthodox Christian nation in the world and the 16th European Union country to enact such a law. Center-right Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced plans to propose the bill after his landslide reelection last year, and four left-wing parties, including the opposition Syriza party, backed it. ‘Say yes to equality,’ Mitsotakis urged parliamentarians on Thursday.
Under the new legislation, same-sex couples can get married and have parental rights. However, Greek Parliament still restricts these individuals from assisted reproduction or surrogate pregnancies, an option that is available to women in Greece who cannot have children for medical reasons. The law also does not offer parental rights to transgender people. Far-right parties and the conservative Church of Greece were the bill’s main opponents.” [Foreign Policy]
How an accused US diplomat-turned-Cuban spy avoided scrutiny for decades
“Long before career U.S. diplomat Manuel Rocha was arrested on charges of being a secret agent of Cuba for decades, there were plenty of red flags. An Associated Press investigation including interviews with former U.S. and Cuban intelligence officials found the CIA received a tip about Rocha’s alleged double life as far back as 2006. Read more.
Key points:
Prosecutors have ranked Rocha’s betrayal among the most brazen in U.S. foreign service history. An undercover FBI agent secretly recorded Rocha praising Fidel Castro as “El Comandante” and calling his work for Cuba’s communist government ‘more than a grand slam’ against the U.S. ‘enemy.’
A former colleague recalled a 2002 controversy in which Rocha, then an ambassador to Bolivia, intervened in that country’s presidential election to help a Castro protégé. Rocha warned Bolivians that voting for a narcotrafficker — a reference to presidential candidate Evo Morales — would lead the U.S. to cut off all foreign assistance. The comments amounted to Rocha’s biggest known favor for Cuba.
Authorities are conducting a damage assessment that’s expected to take years. Officials told the AP that as early 1987, the CIA was aware Castro had a “super mole” burrowed deep inside the U.S. government. Some now suspect it could have been Rocha.” [AP News]
“National security threat. U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, who heads the House Intelligence Committee, caused a stir in Washington on Wednesday when he released a letter asking President Joe Biden to declassify information on a ‘serious national security threat.’ The letter provided no additional details about what that threat was or how serious it could be, leading to public consternation and concern.
Subsequent reporting suggested that Turner was referring to new U.S. intelligence on Russian ambitions to put a nuclear weapon in space to potentially target satellites, though U.S. officials told the New York Times that such actions do not appear imminent. Nuclear capabilities in space could threaten U.S. satellites, undermining Washington’s communications, intelligence, surveillance, and command and control operations, as well as those of its allies. The Biden administration was already set to brief a bipartisan group of House members on the intelligence on Thursday and was thus caught off guard by Turner’s public demand for information on Wednesday.” [Foreign Policy]
“UK opposition leader Keir Starmer is celebrating a double special-election victory that leaves little doubt his Labour Party is on course to oust Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservatives after 14 years in power.
Starmer still has work to do to ensure that disillusioned voters don’t stay home in the general election expected this year.
The results were a major blow for Sunak, whose woes were compounded by data this week showing the UK slipped into recession in the second half of 2023, undermining his pledge to expand the economy.
Labour overturned big Tory majorities in Wellingborough, central England, and Kingswood in the southwest with vote swings well above what’s required for a governing majority in parliament if replicated across the country.
Meanwhile, a strong performance by anti-immigration party Reform UK will worry Tory strategists that a split in the right-wing vote could make it even easier for Labour.
Yet turnout was low in both districts, highlighting a lack of enthusiasm for what’s on offer.
This is not like 1997, when Labour last turfed out the Tories to take power under Tony Blair. The UK is a more fragmented society now, with voters less tribal and increasingly selective in their policy preferences: many previously Labour-voting districts backed Tory-led Brexit, for example.
That helps explain Starmer’s ultra-cautious approach. He’s walking a tightrope between retaining the core Labour electorate and winning over socially conservative voters wary of change. He’s also eager to dissociate himself with the radical policies of his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, who led Labour to a thumping defeat in 2019.
Starmer promises fiscal responsibility and warns there are no quick fixes to the UK’s profound challenges. Once in power, he may turn out to be more reformist than expected.
But first, he has to galvanize enough voters to show up.” — Emily Ashton [Bloomberg]
WATCH: Lizzy Burden reports on the Labour Party’s victories. Source: Bloomberg
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy travels to Germany and France today for talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Emmanuel Macron as he seeks military support. He’s also due to address the Munich Security Conference tomorrow. The European Union would need to double military aid to Ukraine to bridge the gap if US support remains stalled in Congress, according to a German research group.” [Bloomberg]
“South Africa is leading a regional force deploying into eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and risks being caught up in a conflict against the M23 rebel group allegedly backed by Rwanda. Troops will replace a United Nations force and a year-old East African Community deployment that haven’t been able to halt fighting that’s displaced 7 million people and stabilize a region that borders Rwanda.” [Bloomberg]
“Jailed former premier Imran Khan’s party named a prime minister candidate as it seeks to form a coalition government after Pakistan’s inconclusive election. The former cricketer’s PTI chose Omar Ayub Khan, the grandson of the military dictator who was Pakistan’s second president, as its nominee to lead the country. The favorite, Shehbaz Sharif, was nominated by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, the party that’s widely seen as backed by the powerful military.” [Bloomberg]
“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s influential sister offered a rare opening for Japan, saying she saw a positive tone in comments from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is seeking a summit. While Pyongyang appears to be warming slightly to Tokyo, it has widened a chasm between itself and Seoul, with Kim saying last week that he has the legal right to annihilate South Korea.” [Bloomberg]
“Senegal’s top court rejected President Macky Sall’s bid to postpone elections, raising uncertainty in the West African nation that’s traditionally been one of the continent’s most stable democracies.” [Bloomberg]
February 16, 2024
Readers of this newsletter may remember when we cited experts who expected the economic sanctions on Russia to hobble its economy. That hasn’t happened. Today, my colleague Ana Swanson explains why not. — David Leonhardt
By Ana Swanson
Trade Reporter
A commercial port in Vladivostok, Russia, in August. Tatiana Meel/Reuters
When sanctions fail
“After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western nations imposed the most extensive sanctions and trade restrictions in history on Moscow. Today, Russia appears to be doing OK.
Its economy is growing steadily. Russia can’t buy much from the West but has found new providers for drones, surveillance gear, computer chips and other gear. Its oil and gas sales are still strong, despite attempts to stop them. Russian officials say they have plenty of money to pay for their war.
Moscow’s continued strength is a humbling result for the U.S. and its allies. These nations make up more than half of the global economy, and they tried to weaponize their influence over trade and finance to weaken Russia. They hoped to make President Vladimir Putin a pariah and maybe even stop the war. Today, I’ll explain why those efforts have fallen short — and whether they can be made to work again.
Absorbing the blows
The measures against Russia go far beyond traditional sanctions, which historically have targeted banks and elites. Those rules limit how much tech Russia can import, and they direct shipping companies and insurers to cap the price of Russia’s oil at $60 per barrel — well below market rate.
The sanctions took a toll. They raised the cost of many items for Russian civilians and forced the military to buy shoddier missiles and semiconductors. For Russian energy companies like Gazprom and Rosneft, exports to the West have plunged. But the Russian economy has proved surprisingly adaptable, thanks partly to its relationship with China.
It may seem surprising that Russia could so quickly replace so much of its trade with the U.S., Japan and the E.U. But the rest of the global economy — especially China’s — is large enough that the shift didn’t take long. China already makes much of what Russia needs and can buy much of what it sells. Trade between China and Russia hit a record high last year as Russians turned to Chinese cars, electronics and weapons components. ‘China has to a large extent blunted the pain,’ said Eswar Prasad, a trade economist at Cornell University.
Source: Silverado Policy Accelerator, Global Trade Tracker, UN Comtrade, ASEANstats, and national statistics offices | Data through the third quarter of 2023. | By Ashley Wu
Another change has been the rise of a network of shipping companies, insurers and oil traders that does not answer to Western rules. This network, based in countries like China, India and the United Arab Emirates, has expanded since the war began to provide new channels for Russian oil. Thanks to this shadow fleet, Russia can get around the Western price cap on its oil by using shipping companies that don’t comply with it. And Russians are still getting TVs, chips and cellphones through traders in Central Asia and the Middle East who buy them from the West and sell them at a markup.
The West chose not to put in place some tough measures, such as a full oil embargo, for fear they could disrupt the global economy. Unlike some nations the U.S. has penalized before — think of Cuba, Iran and Venezuela — Russia is better integrated into world trade. It exports commodities other countries need, such as steel and fertilizer. And it still provides much of Europe’s energy. Pain aimed at Russia would be felt well beyond its borders.
The limits of Western power
Finally, the newest sanctions — the ones that try to constrain Russia’s access to technology and its oil sales — have not been as effective. The U.S. wields much less influence over these sectors than it does over the banking sector, which is tethered to the dollar. The new measures, imposed in 2022, made it harder and more expensive for Russia to do business abroad. But they haven’t wounded its economy enough to make most Russians question the war. ‘The mood in Russia is, the whole world is against us, but we are managing quite well,’ said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
U.S. officials acknowledge all this. Still, they say they imposed costs that other nations will have to weigh before violating international law. Officials call that a win, even if the measures didn’t send Russia into a recession or end the war.
Putin sees it differently. ‘The instruments and the policies of the United States are ineffective,’ Putin bragged during his interview last week with Tucker Carlson, according to a Russian government translator.
He is surely not the only leader to notice the U.S. failure to cripple Russia. When China wants to menace Taiwan or India wants to assassinate perceived enemies on foreign soil, they will know that Washington couldn’t turn Russia into a pariah when it broke the rules. In that way, sanctions in Russia have exposed the limits of U.S. power.” [New York Times]
OpenAI launched a tool that can create realistic videos from text.
“How it works: Users type in what they want to see, then an AI model trained on video and images creates the new video. The tool, called Sora, was demonstrated yesterday.
It’s pretty amazing: Sora is a big leap in quality for AI-made videos. But it could cause problems — “deepfakes” are already being used to trick and lie to voters.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Iowa star Caitlin Clark sets NCAA Division I women’s basketball career scoring record
Caitlin Clark celebrates with her Iowa teammates after breaking the NCAA women's college basketball all-time scoring record on Thursday.
Jeffrey Becker, USA TODAY Sports
“The senior guard passed former University of Washington guard Kelsey Plum’s mark of 3,527 points, which had stood since 2017, during Thursday night’s game against Michigan. The milestone is the culmination of a relentless pursuit on the record books that Clark began as a freshman in 2020. Along the way, she has attracted throngs of fans wherever she plays.”
Read more at Washington Post
“Lives Lived: Joel Belz founded World, a pioneering magazine for a largely evangelical Christian readership. It sometimes cast a harsh light on religious figures whose behavior was less than holy. Belz died at 82.” [New York Times]