The Full Belmonte, 2/15/2024
Police say three detained after Kansas City shooting
“Less than half an hour after the conclusion of the parade Wednesday to celebrate the Super Bowl victory for the Kansas City Chiefs, a shooting near the city's Union Station left one person dead and at least 22 injured, many of whom are children.
Three people have been detained, but detectives are investigating whether one person was among a group of bystanders who assisted police and possibly tackled an assailant.
•Witnesses recount chaos when gunfire broke out, saying at first they thought they heard the sound of fireworks.
•The team had left the stage by the time of the shooting. All Chiefs players, coaches, staff and their families are safe and accounted for, and many NFL players sent their condolences on social media following the mass shooting.
•Where's safe anymore? Gun control advocates have decried the shooting at the celebration, where more than 800 law enforcement officers were providing security for the parade route.” [USA Today]
Fans leave the area after shots were fired after the celebration of the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl parade.
David Rainey, USA TODAY Sports
What to know about Russia's plan to put a nuclear weapon in space
“New intelligence details Russia's desire to put a nuclear weapon in space, according to U.S. officials, in a move that could pose a major threat to international security. The intelligence, confirmed by two officials not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, will be the subject of a meeting between President Joe Biden's top national security adviser and congressional leaders Thursday. Congress members have asked Biden to declassify all related information in order to aid "the actions necessary to respond to this threat.” Read more
•Trump responded to Vladimir Putin's comments about Joe Biden days after attacking NATO.
•Barack Obama jumped into the fray after Trump's attacks on NATO.
•Paul Whelan is an American detained in Russia. The Biden administration vowed to free him.” [USA Today]
Russia threat: next war frontier
Vladimir Putin talks to Russian state TV station Rossiya 1 in Moscow yesterday. Photo: Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik via AP
“U.S. officials are warning of Russia's rising ability to station nuclear weapons in space, illuminating the next, scarier frontier of warfare.
Why it matters: The future of war is autonomous weapons, robots, sophisticated artificial intelligence and a race to dominate space. The new intelligence suggests Russia might be gaining a tactical edge in the space race.
A space-based nuclear weapon could threaten America's extensive civilian and military satellite network, which transmits billions of bytes of data each hour, the N.Y. Times reports.
Russia wouldn't drop the nuclear weapon on Earth, but rather use it against satellites, ABC News explains.
The U.S. ‘does not have the ability to counter such a weapon and defend its satellites,’ The Times writes. But the threat doesn't appear imminent.
Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut, the House Intelligence Committee's top Democrat, said: ‘No need to buy gold.’
Between the lines: House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) sparked a frenzy yesterday with a vague statement warning of a ‘serious national security threat.’
Turner urged President Biden to declassify the information but didn't provide any details about the threat.
The intrigue: It's unclear why Turner took the extraordinary step of sounding a public alarm before getting a full White House briefing.
One theory: Turner wants to jolt fellow Republicans into taking the Russia threat more seriously — and funding Ukraine to wage war against Putin.
What's next: White House officials are scheduled to brief congressional leaders today.” [Axios]
Trump Trials
Jack Smith Doug Mills/The New York Times
“Jack Smith, the special counsel prosecuting Trump on charges of plotting to overturn the 2020 election, urged the Supreme Court to let the trial start soon.
The New York judge overseeing Trump’s criminal case over hush-money payments to a porn star is expected to rule today on whether the case can move to trial next month.” [New York Times]
Special counsel's private talks
President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden return to the West Wing after looking at Valentine's Day decorations last night. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
“Special counsel Robert Hur is gaming out testimony — and enlisting help from a Trump Justice Department official — in preparation for a potential congressional hearing early next month, Axios' Alex Thompson scoops.
Why it matters: House Republicans are salivating at the chance to ask Hur about President Biden's fitness for office. Such a hearing would give a searing spotlight to one of Biden's big vulnerabilities.
Biden and his White House and personal lawyers have been bashing Hur over the report, which was released a week ago today.
The report cleared Biden of criminal wrongdoing over his handling of classified document. But it painted the president, 81, as having ‘diminished faculties’ and a ‘poor memory.’
Hur is in final talks to publicly testify before Congress in early March, a GOP aide tells Axios. Hur would likely appear in front of the House Judiciary Committee.
The special counsel has been in discussions with Sarah Isgur — a senior counselor to Trump's deputy attorney general during the Mueller investigation — to help him navigate the situation.
What to watch: The disputes over the report's contents will put further pressure on the White House to authorize the release of the transcript of Hur's interview with Biden.
The five-hour interview took place over Oct. 8 and 9, just after the Israel-Hamas war began.
Any release would undergo a review for classified material.” [Axios]
New Coalition Government
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaks during a press conference in Lahore, Pakistan, on Feb. 13.Arif Ali/AFP
“The Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) announced plans late Tuesday to form a coalition government following last Thursday’s parliamentary elections. Along with representatives from four other parties, the alliance will prevent former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party from securing power despite PTI-backed independents winning the most seats.
‘Let’s move forward by eliminating mutual differences for the sake of the nation,’ PMLN leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said.
Khan was barred from running in last week’s vote despite being the public’s more popular candidate. He is currently serving multiple prison sentences for four separate convictions—three of which were handed down a week before the election. Pakistan’s Supreme Court also banned his PTI party from running, forcing its candidates to campaign as independents. PTI-affiliated independents won 93 seats, the PMLN won 73 seats, and the PPP won 54 seats, according to official results.
Khan announced on Tuesday that his PTI-backed candidates would join the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen party, which won one parliamentary seat, and he ruled out any possibility of joining the PMLN-PPP coalition. Members of the Sharif-led alliance are ‘mandate thieves,’ Khan said, adding that such a coalition lacks ‘credibility.’
The last time the PMLN and PPP aligned was in April 2022, when they ousted Khan from power via a no-confidence vote. At that time, the PMLN placed Sharif’s brother Shehbaz Sharif in power, where he ruled for 14 months until being replaced by a caretaker government. Coalition officials once again nominated Shehbaz on Tuesday to be their candidate for prime minister. Shehbaz’s first reign was widely unpopular, with many Pakistanis accusing him of being easily manipulated by Nawaz and the country’s military. Pakistan’s armed forces backed the PMLN in last Thursday’s vote.
Khan has claimed that widespread vote-rigging prevented a greater win for PTI-backed candidates. On the day of the election, Pakistani authorities temporarily shut down mobile internet access, citing security concerns, and threw out PTI-connected representatives meant to oversee vote counting.
‘I warn against the misadventure of forming a government with stolen votes,’ Khan said. ‘Such daylight robbery will not only be a disrespect to the citizens, but will also push the country’s economy further into a downward spiral.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Claim of victory. Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto declared victory on Wednesday in the country’s presidential election despite official results not yet being announced. Unofficial results based on quick vote counts conducted by nongovernmental think tanks show Prabowo having won nearly 60 percent of the vote, with 85 percent of votes counted. If those results prove accurate, Prabowo will have secured enough votes to avoid a presidential runoff in June. His main rivals, former Govs. Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, have yet to concede defeat. Official results will likely be published in March, election authorities said.
‘This victory must be a victory for all the Indonesian people,’ Prabowo said.
Prabowo—whose running mate is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of outgoing President Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi)—was the country’s predicted front-runner. Prabowo is the son-in-law of former dictator Suharto, the country’s second president, who was toppled in 1998. While serving as a lieutenant general in Suharto’s regime, Prabowo ordered the abduction of more than 20 pro-democracy student activists and helped lead the U.S.-backed invasion of East Timor. He was banned from entering the United States for his poor human rights record until 2020.
In recent months, however, Prabowo has rebranded himself as a ‘cuddly grandpa’ and Jokowi’s top choice. Yet, his controversial history has prompted fears that he will push Indonesia back toward authoritarianism. In his victory speech on Wednesday, Prabowo joked about his close relationship with the former dictator, who died in 2008. ‘I know him quite well,’ Prabowo said to a crowd of supporters. ‘Why are you laughing? You guys don’t believe it?’” [Foreign Policy]
“Battling Hezbollah. A rocket attack targeting northern Israel on Wednesday killed one Israeli soldier and injured at least seven other people on an Israeli military base. No group has claimed responsibility, but the missiles appeared to come from an area of Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah. In response, Israel launched an ‘extensive wave’ of assaults on Hezbollah-linked targets that killed at least four people, including two children.
Near-daily fighting has marred the Israel-Lebanon border since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. On Monday, France proposed a truce between Israeli and Hezbollah forces to prevent the conflict from ‘spiraling out of control.’ Hezbollah, however, refuses to negotiate a de-escalation until the war in Gaza concludes.
Meanwhile, Israel’s military ordered hundreds of people sheltering at Nasser Medical Center to evacuate on Wednesday. Located in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, Nasser is the last functioning major hospital in the Gaza Strip. Thousands of Palestinians have fled there in recent weeks to escape Israeli bombardments. Israel said the evacuation order did not apply to patients and staff.” [Foreign Policy]
“Erdogan-Sisi reunion. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Cairo on Wednesday for his first trip to Egypt since 2012. During bilateral talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Erdogan promised to boost trade to $15 billion in the short term and reevaluate energy and defense cooperation.
The meeting represents a significant thawing of diplomatic ties, which have been strained since 2013, when then-army chief Sisi led a coup against the Muslim Brotherhood-backed Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president and an ally of Ankara. Turkey has long supported the Muslim Brotherhood, which Sisi’s regime considers to be a terrorist organization, and served as a safe haven for exiled Brotherhood leaders and members following Sisi’s crackdown on the group. In the last several years, though, Erdogan has sought to mend ties with Egypt and other regional players.
During Wednesday’s meeting, the two leaders also called for renewed cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas. ‘We will continue to cooperate and stand in solidarity with our Egyptian brothers to put an end to the bloodshed in Gaza,’ Erdogan said. Egypt has hosted numerous negotiations on the conflict and oversees Gaza’s main humanitarian aid corridor in the border city of Rafah. However, the latest talks in Cairo ended without a cease-fire, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected sending another Israeli delegation to participate in further discussions, stating that ‘only a change in Hamas’s position will allow progress in the negotiations.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Vladimir Putin and his NATO foes have something in common: The looming shadow of Donald Trump is burnishing their affection for the current US president.
‘He’s a more experienced person, he’s predictable, he’s an old-style politician,’ was how the Russian leader praised Joe Biden in a TV interview, his tongue only gently in cheek, when asked which of the two leading candidates would be better for Russia.
The incumbent is also more likely to honor NATO writ — notably the article compelling members to come to each others’ defense if attacked — giving Europeans their own reasons to prefer Biden over Trump.
At a time when they’re facing an unpredictable adversary in Russia, the last thing the countries of Europe need is unpredictable friends.
That’s partly why they’re pushing ahead with their years-long mission to become a standalone military power. But they’re still a long way off that target, and the gap is looking hard to bridge.
Even in the best-case scenario — one in which all NATO members meet their defense-spending goals — the continent is still 10 years away from being able to defend itself, sources say.
Russia may be a mere three years from being able to launch an attack on a NATO neighbor. So alliance members are belatedly pulling out the stops. But they’re held back by supply-chain issues, and one singularly Trumpian concern: protectionism.
Germany and France, the continent’s two biggest powers, disagree over whether to purchase weapons from overseas or take the slower route of procuring in Europe. Many officials think the answer lies in EU-level coordination and are even mooting the establishment of battalions answerable to Brussels.
The annual Munich Security Conference, beginning tomorrow, may show how much progress they can make on reaching these goals.” — Isobel Finkel [Bloomberg]
An image of Putin is displayed as Biden speaks at the White House in June 2022. Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
“Canada, Australia and New Zealand said they’re ‘gravely concerned’ about a potential Israeli military operation in southern Gaza’s Rafah city, as the US allies warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against an offensive. Netanyahu refused to send a delegation to Egypt for follow-up talks aimed at securing a cease-fire with Hamas, saying the militant group’s ‘delusional’ demands have to change before negotiations can advance.” [Bloomberg]
“Taiwan defended its maritime operation that led to the death of two Chinese fishermen and prompted condemnation from China, which claims the island as its territory. The fatalities occurred after a China-registered speedboat carrying four people capsized yesterday off the coast of Taiwan’s Kinmen island during a chase after it refused inspection, Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration said.” [Bloomberg]
Soldiers during a military exercise in Taiwan in July 2023. Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg
“Rishi Sunak faces a double electoral test today that could trigger further division in his Conservative Party and undermine his bid to stop the Labour Party from taking power in a UK-wide vote expected this year. Losing either of the special elections would be a major setback for the prime minister, given the Tories are defending a significant majority in both.” [Bloomberg]
“Procter & Gamble’s $300 million diaper production line near Lagos was hailed in 2017 as a symbol of Nigeria’s economic ambitions. In December, the company said it was leaving, and it’s not alone. Global consumer goods conglomerates are exiting Africa’s most-populous nation as a plunging currency and rampant inflation slash profits, while a scarcity of dollars mean they are unable to repatriate earnings.” [Bloomberg]
“As Southeast Asia’s largest economy, holder of the world’s biggest nickel reserves and a key member of the Global South, Indonesia serves as a swing state on geopolitical problems like Russia’s war in Ukraine and has become increasingly important for the energy transition. Read our analysis on the potential impact of Prabowo Subianto, the 72-year-old ex-general, becoming the nation's next president.” [Bloomberg]
“US intelligence shows that Russia is discussing the possibility of basing a nuclear weapon in space, sources say, a finding that emerged after a top House Republican publicly warned of an unspecified national-security threat.” [Bloomberg]
“Venezuela’s decision to arrest Rocío San Miguel, a well-known military analyst and government critic, was denounced by the United Nations and the US, which was already threatening to reimpose economic sanctions over the government’s treatment of opponents.” [Bloomberg]
SAT comeback
Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios
“Yale is the latest top university to consider reversing its pandemic-era move to make standardized testing optional, Axios' April Rubin writes.
Why it matters: The correlation between SAT and ACT results and future student success is surrounded by conflicting research and points of view among school administrators and education advocates.
What's happening: Yale would join Dartmouth — which reinstated its SAT/ACT requirement earlier this month — and MIT.
Dartmouth cited a research study that shows "standardized testing — when assessed using the local norms at a student's high school" is valuable for undergraduate applications.
Between the lines: Yale's dean of undergraduate admissions said last year that ‘the SAT or the ACT is the single best predictor of a student's academic performance’ at the school, Bloomberg notes.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: William Post, a bakery manager in Michigan, worked with Kellogg’s to create Pop-Tarts in 1964. The snack became an American classic, growing from four flavors to more than 30. Post died at 96.” [New York Times]