The Full Belmonte, 2/14/2024
House GOP impeaches Mayorkas after previous vote failure
m The impeachment of Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, amounted to a partisan indictment of President Biden’s immigration policies by Republicans.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times
“House Republicans impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, making him the first Cabinet secretary since 1876 to be impeached by the House.
A week after a first attempt that fell short and caused heartburn for GOP leadership, Mayorkas was impeached in a second 214-213 vote. The Senate is all but guaranteed to sidestep it, with lawmakers predicting they will either send it to committee or quickly dismiss the charges of betraying the public trust and refusing to comply with the law.” Read the latest at POLITICO
Democrat Tom Suozzi Wins Race to Succeed George Santos in Congress
Immigration takes center stage in New York special election; GOP loses seat in House
“QUEENS, N.Y.—Democrat Tom Suozzi won a special election Tuesday on Long Island, flipping a seat in Congress from the GOP and sending a signal that his party can withstand Republican attacks on immigration in swing districts far from the border.
Suozzi defeated Republican Mazi Pilip, the Associated Press said, to reclaim his seat representing New York’s Third Congressional District. The campaigns and outside political-action committees have spent more than $20 million on ads and organizing, part of which centers on the record-setting number of illegal crossings at the border—already a point of scrutiny for President Biden and down-ballot Democrats heading into November.
Special elections often feature lower voter turnout than general elections, so the lessons of the result are limited. But it brings immediate implications for the House of Representatives. Suozzi will succeed disgraced former Rep. George Santos, a Republican who was expelled from the House in December, to fill one of four vacancies in the chamber. Suozzi will cut into an already narrow GOP majority in the chamber, where the party breakdown is currently 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats.
Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi at an event in Westbury, N.Y., on Tuesday. PHOTO: JEENAH MOON/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Suozzi beat back criticism from Pilip over the Biden administration’s stewardship of the southern border and the way New York City’s Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, has handled more than 177,000 migrants who have come to the city since 2022. GOP super political-action committees such as the Congressional Leadership Fund spent millions on immigration-themed attack ads….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Trump's billion-dollar man
Chris LaCivita (standing, center) on Trump Force One during a trip to Iowa last year. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images
“A Trump campaign senior adviser, Chris LaCivita, is in line to take over a GOP operation expected to spend $1 billion — effectively merging Trump's campaign with the RNC, and enhancing his already tight grip on the party, Axios' Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson report.
Why it matters: Trump's plan to make LaCivita the RNC's chief operating officer, while keeping his campaign hat, will make the two entities ‘a distinction without a difference,’ a senior Trump adviser tells Axios.
Among the campaign, the RNC and supporting GOP committees, the party's 2024 spending is expected to amount to a $1 billion-plus enterprise.
Between the lines: It's not unusual for a party's presidential nominee to take control of the party apparatus.
But even before he's officially the Republican nominee, Trump is taking over the GOP in a way that could expand his influence well beyond the 2024 presidential campaign.
LaCivita — a no-nonsense former Marine and longtime Republican operative — will lead Trump's push to shake up the GOP's leadership.
‘You can expect a Marine's approach to politics,’ said John Ashbrook, who helped run the pro-Trump Preserve America Super PAC in 2020 with LaCivita. ‘He'll arm the building with people who want to win and demand results.’
Trump aims to merge the RNC and the campaign even further by having his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, be the party's co-chair. He has endorsed North Carolina GOP chair Michael Whatley, another Trump loyalist, to succeed RNC chair Ronna McDaniel.
Trump's team wants to make the RNC less siloed than in 2020, when his second presidential campaign used the RNC largely as a bank.
The RNC is expected to take the lead in the GOP's field operation, to make it easier for the national party to move money to state parties, insiders tell Axios.
LaCivita would sign off on key spending decisions, including which vendors the RNC chooses for mailings, polling and TV ads.
LaCivita and Susie Wiles, who runs Trump's campaign, are expected to make budget recommendations for both the RNC and the campaign.
Money has always been top of mind for LaCivita, who monitors political ad spending and focuses on ‘moving the mud’ — building ground operations in key early and swing states.
LaCivita said earlier in the primary season that Trump wasn't doing many rallies because they were expensive — ‘half a million a pop,’ he told the conservative podcast Ruthless.
He also told reporters just before the Iowa caucuses last month that the ‘collectors' edition’ caucus training book and gold-embroidered hats for volunteers ‘cost us a damn fortune.’
‘That sh*t matters to [our Iowa] operation that's run by volunteers. It's about creating this team atmosphere ... the 'we're all in it together' kind of thing.’
LaCivita was described by operatives who've worked with him as ‘a bulldog ... Easy to work with — unless you're bullsh*tting.’” [Axios]
A new report says the world faces a ‘dangerous decade’ as instability and military spending rise
“The world has entered an era of increasing instability as countries around the globe boost military spending in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Hamas attack on Israel and China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which has compiled its annual estimate of the global military situation for the past 65 years. Read more.
Key findings:
Global defense spending rose 9% to $2.2 trillion last year, the IISS said.
The increase was even steeper in NATO. The alliance’s non-U.S. members have boosted military spending by 32% since Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the institute found. Ten European members reached the alliance’s goal of spending 2% of their economic output on defense last year, up from two in 2014.
European defense spending received renewed attention in recent days after Donald Trump’s comment that when he was president he told an unidentified NATO state he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack members that didn’t meet their funding commitments.” [AP News]
Who Will Succeed Jokowi?
Supporters attend an election campaign for Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto at the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Feb. 10.Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP
“Indonesia will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on Wednesday in the world’s largest single-day democratic vote. Six million election officials will oversee more than 205 million eligible voters across thousands of islands. Around 10,000 candidates from 18 political parties are competing for a spot in the country’s 580-seat parliament. And for the first time in 15 years, three presidential candidates are running for the nation’s highest office.
Leading in the polls is Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra Party. A onetime rival of outgoing President Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi), Prabowo now touts himself as the continuity candidate. Jokowi appears to be backing Prabowo over his own party’s choice, former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo, in a move that critics and many analysts see as part of an ongoing effort to extend Jokowi’s influence past the election. The president’s eldest son is Prabowo’s running mate.
Prabowo is best known for being the son-in-law of former Indonesian military dictator Suharto, who was toppled in 1998. Under Suharto’s regime, Prabowo served as a lieutenant general, and he has been accused of committing atrocities during his time in the army, including his role in the U.S.-backed invasion of East Timor and ordering the abduction of more than 20 pro-democracy student activists in 1998—13 of whom have never been found. (Prabowo denies any wrongdoing.) But his highly popular social media campaign, awkward dance performances, and apparent support from Jokowi have tried to reframe the candidate as a ‘cuddly grandpa.’ However, experts and human rights activists have raised concerns that Prabowo, who has previously said the country needs an authoritarian leader, would continue to weaken the country’s democratic institutions, as Jokowi has done.
Ganjar, meanwhile, is only polling at 20 percent despite being the top choice of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle. He has been described as ‘Jokowi lite’ and has pledged to continue most of Jokowi’s policies, though with some changes, as well as keep up the country’s annual 5 percent GDP growth rate. ‘We want to develop Indonesia faster and continue the good things that have been done by the current government, to fix what is not good enough and to leave the bad ones,’ Ganjar said. Indonesia is the sixth-biggest emerging market in the world.
Unaffiliated candidate Anies Baswedan was the head of an Islamic university before serving as governor of Jakarta until late 2022, during which time he improved the city’s public transportation and oversaw the capital’s COVID-19 response. He has repeatedly criticized Jokowi’s efforts to move the country’s capital from Jakarta to another island, saying it will not reap economic rewards, and has condemned what he describes as the return of nepotism.
All three candidates have worked hard to court young voters under age 40, who make up Indonesia’s largest voting bloc.
This is only Indonesia’s fifth democratic election since Suharto’s fall. ‘Democracy is a young and treasured—but imperfect—institution in Indonesia,’ FP’s Allison Meakem writes. As the world’s third-largest democracy, a key Indo-Pacific player, a major nickel producer, and the home to the largest Muslim population globally, Indonesia is positioned to become one of the world’s most influential decision-makers.
If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote on Wednesday, the top two politicians will compete in a runoff on June 26.” [Foreign Policy]
Ukraine said that Russian forces are buying Elon Musk’s SpaceX satellite internet terminals in Arab countries and using them at the front line.
“Ukraine’s military-intelligence agency posted an audio recording that allegedly captured Russian soldiers discussing how to obtain Starlink equipment, a day after Musk expressed skepticism that Ukraine could win the war with Russia. Starlink, which is more secure than cell or radio signals, is vital to Kyiv’s operations; until now, Moscow had no similar system. The Russian Defense Ministry and SpaceX didn’t respond to a request for comment, and Musk has denied previous reports that Moscow is purchasing Starlink systems.” [Wall Street Journal]
“Renewed negotiations. Senior intelligence officials from Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and the United States met in Cairo on Tuesday to discuss a potential cease-fire in Gaza. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday that his administration is working on creating a six-week truce that would eventually establish a permanent end to the war, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains opposed to any deal that limits Israel’s ability to completely destroy Hamas. Hamas leaders said they do not trust Israel to abide by a cease-fire once all hostages are released.
Israel’s expected ground offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah remains a backdrop to ongoing talks in Cairo. The international community has repeatedly warned Israel not to launch an assault on the city, citing humanitarian concerns. More than half of the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million residents have evacuated to Rafah since the war began on Oct. 7, 2023, to flee Israeli attacks. Netanyahu has been criticized for not providing a plan to protect the civilians who would be endangered in his Rafah operation.” [Foreign Policy]
“‘Scare tactic.’ Russian authorities placed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and other European officials on a ‘wanted’ list for ‘desecration of historical memory,’ Russian officials confirmed on Tuesday. Kallas’s government has worked to remove as many as 400 Soviet-era World War II monuments from across Estonia to prevent the mobilization of ‘more hostility’ in the country, arguing that Russia wanted to use the memorials ‘to fuel tensions in Estonian society.’ This is the first time that the Kremlin’s interior ministry has brought a criminal case against a foreign leader.
Kallas dismissed the Kremlin’s warning on Tuesday as a ‘familiar scare tactic’ and said she would continue to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. Since coming to office in 2021, Kallas has advocated for boosting Europe’s defenses and strengthening NATO. Also on Tuesday, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service warned that Moscow planned to double its number of troops stationed on its borders with the Baltic states and Finland to prepare for a potential military conflict with NATO in the next 10 years.” [Foreign Policy]
“India’s farmers protest again. Police fired tear gas at farmers in India on Tuesday as tens of thousands of them marched to New Delhi to protest broken agricultural promises made by the government. The farmers are demanding guaranteed crop prices and for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration to double their incomes. Barricades prevented demonstrators from entering the capital.
Previous farmers’ protests rocked the country beginning in November 2020. At that time, thousands of people camped outside of New Delhi for more than a year to protest Modi repealing a set of agricultural laws that had protected farmers’ incomes. Tuesday’s marchers argued that Modi failed to uphold promises that he made in 2021 to quell the protests.” [Foreign Policy]
“Turmoil in the Middle East has reached another tipping point as Israeli forces prepare to move through southern Gaza toward the Egyptian border.
US President Joe Biden’s calls for Israel to shield Palestinian civilians after an assault he described as “over the top” have stoked frictions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu says Israeli forces must advance into the city of Rafah to eliminate Hamas, the Iran-backed group behind the Oct. 7 attack in which 1,200 people were killed and 250 abducted. Without that, Israel will never be safe again, officials and a growing number of Israelis say.
Rafah is where more than 1 million Palestinians have sought refuge. It’s a city dotted with tents and makeshift homes in densely populated clusters in what the United Nations has called a “pressure cooker of despair.”
Israel’s campaign has killed more than 28,000 people in Gaza so far, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
Elsewhere, groups backed by Iran have carried out a record number of attacks on US and allied military assets and targeted shipping routes through the Red Sea. They’ve vowed to press on as long as the conflict in Gaza rages.
Talks are continuing mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar to secure a cease-fire with Hamas, considered a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union. But progress is fragile.
However unlikely, the US could use this moment to push for a lasting peace deal with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state — anathema to Netanyahu and an increasingly difficult aim the longer the destruction of Gaza continues.
Yet four months since Biden embraced Netanyahu in Tel Aviv and urged a nation in mourning to temper its military response, Washington doesn’t seem to have the leverage. — Sylvia Westall
Smoke billows following Israeli bombardments over Rafah yesterday. Photographer: Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images
Global Must Reads
Ukraine dispatched reinforcements to the embattled eastern city of Avdiivka, a first major test for the new army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Ukraine’s military said it destroyed a Russian warship off the coast of Crimea, the latest in a string of operations targeting Kremlin vessels in the Black Sea, while in the US, Biden assailed Donald Trump for “shameful” comments threatening to encourage Russia to invade NATO allies.
Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is poised to win enough votes in today’s presidential election to lead Southeast Asia’s largest economy after two failed bids, according to unofficial counts from multiple independent pollsters. The 72-year-old ex-general secured nearly 60% support in counts by private pollsters following the world’s biggest single-day polls.
Prabowo casts his ballot at a polling station in West Java today. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg
Sales of Japanese chip-making equipment to China are surging, helping Beijing to build out its tech supply chain despite US efforts to thwart its progress. China has ramped up its purchases of legacy chip technology in the 16 months since Washington and its allies began to curb exports of advanced semiconductors and equipment, a boon for Japanese suppliers such as Tokyo Electron.
Pakistan moved a step closer to a new government when former premier Shehbaz Sharif was named as the next prime minister candidate, a breakthrough after no political party achieved an outright majority in last week’s elections. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari dropped out of the race, saying his party would support the Pakistan Muslim League-N’s choice, but it will not join the cabinet.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed with the United Arab Emirates to continue work on a major trade corridor through the Middle East to Europe. The push to boost trade and counter China’s influence comes despite the widening regional conflict stemming from the war between Israel and Hamas.
Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo named Mohammed Amin Adam as the nation’s new finance minister in an overhaul of his cabinet as the government seeks to finalize a deal to restructure its debt.
Turkey wants reassurances from Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte that he won’t have a bias toward the alliance’s EU members before it approves his bid to be the next head of NATO.
Polar bears are rapidly losing weight as Arctic food supply changes, study says
“With Arctic Sea ice shrinking from climate change, many polar bears have to shift their diets to land during parts of the summer, according to a new study in the journal Nature Communications. Researchers in Canada's Hudson Bay found that 19 of the 20 bears they studied dropped an average of 47 pounds (21 kilograms) over three weeks. Read more.
Why this matters:
‘Polar bears need sea ice to feed — this is how they access their primary prey (ice seals). They evolved from grizzly bears to live on a marine diet of fat,’ said University of Washington biologist Kristin Laidre, who wasn’t part of the study team. ‘This paper adds to a growing body of evidence that polar bears cannot sustain themselves on land as we continue to lose sea ice due to climate warming.’
Last September, the Arctic Sea ice hit an annual low. There was about 1 million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) less sea ice than in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.” [AP News]
Jon Stewart comeback = Ratings hit
Jon Stewart returned to "The Daily Show" on Monday. Photo: Matt Wilson/Comedy Central
“Jon Stewart's "Daily Show" comeback on Monday night drew the show's biggest audience since 2018.
Why it matters: The reunion — almost nine years after Stewart departed — marked a key moment for a show that has struggled to retain viewers since he left.
By the numbers: Stewart's roast of President Biden, former President Trump and himself drew 1.9 million total viewers on Comedy Central and simulcasts on other channels owned by Paramount.
930,000 of those viewers watched on Comedy Central.
Context: "The Daily Show" under Trevor Noah averaged an audience of 385,000 in 2022 — the last year it had a full-time host.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: Bob Moore leveraged his grandfatherly image to turn the artisanal grain company Bob’s Red Mill into a $100 million-a-year business. He died at 94.” [New York Times]